by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 21st of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


Philadelphia Phillies-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 88 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-85
2005-88
2004-86

3-year average: 86  

Lineup-Philly's lineup is led by MVP Ryan Howard. Here's a look:

C-Rod Barajas(31): Barajas developed some power in his three seasons in Texas with 47 HR's. He should be able to hit at least 15 HR's this year while playing half of his games in a lively ballpark in Philly.

1B-Ryan Howard(27): Howard put up some incredible numbers (58 HR's, 149 RBI's) in 2006 to win the NL MVP. He was especially hot after the All-Star break with a .355 batting average.

2B-Chase Utley(28): Another young star in the Phillies lineup. Utley drove in more than 100 runs for the second year in a row while scoring 131 runs in 2006.

SS-Jimmy Rollins(28): After never hitting more than 14 HR's in a season, Rollins hit 25 HR's in 2006. He has averaged 120 runs scored over the last three seasons.

3B-Wes Helms(31): Helms hit .385 in 130 at-bats after the All-Star break last season for the Marlins. He has only had more than 300 at-bats in a season once in his career. Helms will likely share some playing time at third with Abraham Nunez.

LF-Pat Burrell(30): The former No. 1 overall MLB draft pick has been inconsistent in his big league career. While some think he is capable of even more, Burrell has been solid over the last two seasons by averaging 31 HR's with 106 RBI's. He has also developed more patience at the plate with 197 walks in 2005-06.  

CF-Aaron Rowand(29): Rowand became a fan favorite after running into a wall to make a catch in his first season with the Phillies. The memorable play did put him on the DL as he missed 53 games last year. Rowand's name has come up in some trade discussions this spring. He is not a impact hitter but Rowand has some solid intangibles for a ballclub.   

RF-Shane Victorino(26): Victorino hit a solid .287 in his first full big league campaign in 2006. The Phillies are hoping for a little more power production (6 HR's, 46 RBI's in 2006) from him in 2007.


Overall lineup outlook(4 right-handed batters, 2 left-handed batters, and 2 switch-hitters): The Phillies led the NL in runs scored in 2006. Philadelphia has four big impact bats to go to war with. Only the Mets can rival the big 4 (Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Burrell) that the Phillies have in the NL. The other four hitting spots are pretty average but respectable. With the thunder in the other half of the lineup, the Philadelphia role players don't have to do too much. Phiadelphia will make another run at being the top NL offense again in 2007.     

Starting rotation-The Phillies have a solid group of starting arms in 2007.



RHP-Brett Myers(26): Myers has established himself as one of the NL's better young hurlers after his second straight campaign with an E.R.A. of under four in 2006. He has recorded 397 strikeouts over the last two seasons.

RHP-Freddy Garcia(30): Garcia may start the season on the DL after suffering a biceps injury in spring training. He brings some quality post-season experience and durability to Philly. Garcia has logged more than 200 innings in seven of his eight big league seasons.

LHP-Jamie Moyer(44): Moyer's the definition of a crafty lefty. He was a solid 5-2 in eight starts for the Phillies last season after coming over from Seattle. Age is not much of a concern with his unique pitching style.

LHP-Cole Hamels(23): Hamels is the polar opposite of Moyer. Hamels is a lefty with hard and electric stuff. He settled down in his rookie campaign last season after the All-Star break to post a 3.39 E.R.A. in 14 starts. Hamels recorded 145 strikeouts in 132.1 innings pitched.  

RHP-Adam Eaton(29): Eaton has been able to make only 35 starts over the last two seasons due to injuries. He has been a solid pitcher in his career (54-45 record) but he has never had an E.R.A. of under four in a season.  


Overall rotation outlook: The Phillies have excellent depth in their starting rotation. Philadelphia actually has six quality starters with veteran Jon Lieber being the current odd man out of the rotation. Lieber will likely be dealt although he can be a solid insurance policy if Garcia's injury worsens. Myers and Hamels form a great young power arm tandem for Philly. Garcia and Moyer are steady vets to support the youngsters. Eaton is well above average for a 5th starter. The Phillies are well set for a playoff run with this rotation. Philadelphia should have one of the top 3 NL starting staffs in 2007.    

Bullpen-The Phillies bullpen isn't quite as strong as their rotation.

Setup relief-RHP Ryan Madson(26) is a versatile arm in the pen who can work more than one inning. RHP Geoff Geary(30) stepped up to have a big year for Philly in 2006 with an E.R.A. of under three in 81 games. The rest of the setup relief could be a little shaky. The pen doesn't have a proven left-hander and there isn't much depth.   

Closer-RHP Tom Gordon(39): Gordon returned to the full-time closing role in 2006 for the first time since 2001. He responded with a quality season by saving 34 of 39 chances for the Phillies.

Overall pitching outlook: Only three NL staffs allowed more runs than the Phillies in 2006. While the lively ballpark in Philly will lead to some skewed pitching numbers at times, the pitching staff will need to improve for the Phillies to have a playoff opportunity in 2007. The rotation has been overhauled since last season's Opening Day as Myers will be the only returning hurler from last April's rotation. Philly will be able to compete on most days with their quality rotation. The bullpen isn't as strong but Gordon is a solid closer. This group will need to step up. Overall, the Phillies should be able to move up to a middle of the pack ranking in NL runs allowed in 2007.    

Final recap and recommendation: The Phillies have been in a holding pattern in the last six seasons. Since 2001, the Phillies have won at least 85 games five times but have never won more than 88 games during any of these years. There have been some character and chemistry questions about this team. Philadelphia has been unable to deliver in September despite having some chances to be a playoff team. The organization has assembled some outstanding talents in the lineup and rotation. With Howard, Utley, Rollins, Myers, and Hamels, the Phillies have an opportunity to be a force in the NL for years to come. The pitching problems from a year ago have been addressed. The combination of the offense and starting pitching will enable the Phillies to break through to win at least 90 games in 2007.      

OVER 88 1/2 WINS: * 1-Star