There
are certain days that appeal to most sports fans, the type of days
where our television set truly becomes the single most important
possession that we own. The opening weekend of March Madness stands
out as this type of ‘must watch’ event, with college basketball on tap
non-stop from morning till night. The Super Bowl is another ‘event’
type of day, where the Big Game is most assuredly a television
spectacle.
While the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament and the weekend
of the Super Bowl are the two biggest sports weekends of the year here
in Las Vegas, there are no shortage of other qualified candidates to
serve as ‘must watch’ days. The opening Sunday of the NFL certainly
deserves some consideration, as does the Sunday with the AFC and NFC
championship games in the playoffs. The opening Saturday of the
college football season also stands out, as does New Year’s Day for all
the bowl games.
But the first Monday in April is truly one of my favorite days of
the year to sit in front of the TV from morning till night, taking
everything in. All day long we’ve got baseball, with opening day on
tap for 26 of the 30 major league teams. With nine day games, four of
them on national TV, even casual fans can get a good feel for the
excitement level that is a prerequisite for opening day. Hope springs
eternal at this time of the year, even for fans of perennial bottom
feeders like the Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Devil
Rays and Kansas City Royals, the four biggest underdogs on today’s card.
Watching a baseball game is nothing like watching football or
basketball on television. The pace is slower – much slower. Every
pitch is it’s own little battle; every inning has a story to tell. You
don’t have the jaw dropping grace of the basketball world, or the brute
physicality that makes football what it is. That’s why the great
baseball announcers have the uncanny ability to tell one folksy story
after the next – baseball is a game where the story must be enough to
attract viewers, without the consistent fast paced excitement of the
other leagues.
As I write this blog entry, we’ve already seen the season’s
opening contest as the Mets knocked off the Cardinals last night. The
action begins anew in less than an hour – expect nothing but baseball
on the three television sets in my home office between now and
tonight…. until the NCAA Championship game tips off this evening, that
is.
Baseball is the only sport that has their opening day on the same
day as another sport’s title game. Heck, even the NBA doesn’t have a
single game scheduled for this evening, as usual on national
championship Monday. College hoops fans are probably in for a treat
this evening, because this game, unlike many other heavily hyped
sporting events, is a classic battle more often than not.
My college basketball memories start with three of the best games
that I watched as a teenager. First came North Carolina beating
Georgetown 63-62 on Michael Jordan’s game winning shot in the 1982
championship game. Then came Jim Valvano’s moment of glory as NC State
upset the Phi Slama Jama Houston squad 54-52 the following year. And
Villanova’s upset win over Georgetown 66-64 in the 1985 championship
game merits serious consideration as the best college basketball game
ever.
But it doesn’t end there. Louisville beat Duke by three points in
1986. Indiana beat Syracuse by one in 1987. Kansas beat Oklahoma by
four in 1988. Michigan beat Seton Hall by a single point in overtime
in 1989. In more recent years, we’ve seen great games like the
Arizona-Kentucky overtime battle in 1997; the UConn upset over Duke in
1999, Syracuse hanging on to beat Kansas by three in 2003 and the North
Carolina-Illinois battle two years ago. In all, since that classic Tar
Heels championship run in ’82, 18 of the 25 NCAA championship games
have come down to the wire, decided by single digit margins. Unlike
the Super Bowl, this game generally lives up to the hype.
So, that leaves us with one of the great sporting days of the
year, the first Monday in April. Wall to wall opening day baseball all
morning and afternoon, with the NCAA championship game as a worthy
nightcap. Don’t expect to see me leave my La-Z-Boy at any point today,
other than for the occasional pit stop.
If you’ve read my Bio at Sports Memo, you
know I listed my favorite sports announcer as Kevin Harlan. Tonight’s
college basketball national title game between Florida and Ohio State
will be broadcast on WestwoodOne radio nationwide with Kevin Harlan
providing the play-by-play coverage. In my opinion, Harlan’s coverage
of the game is the best in the business, as he’s colorful,
entertaining, but most importantly descriptive. He’s known for his
witty dialogue and vast assortment of creative banter. Yet, he provides
a visualization that few others approach when announcing a game. If
you’re at home and watching the game on TV, I recommend turning down
the television volume and voices of Jim Nance and Billy Packer and
listening to Harlan’s play-by-play radio coverage. The color
commentators are Bill Raftery and John Thompson, the former Georgetown
coach.
I caught portions of the semi-final games Saturday
night, and was able to listen to Harlan describe the action. I like
that he gives a regular score update and even shot-clock updates, as
there is nothing more frustrating to a bettor than to tune into a game
and wait many minutes to hear the score. While I didn’t hear any of his
widely known ‘Right between the Eyes’, or ‘Oh baby, what a play’
screaming of basketball brilliance, I did hear precise, colorful
description of the game. Harlan doesn’t just tell you that the player
‘dribbles past’ the defender, it’s a ‘crossover’ dribble. No ‘shot missed’ from the outside, it’s ‘an 18-footjumper off the back
rim’. Everything is visually descriptive, and I tried to take some
notes while both driving and ultimately at my home office desk while
listening and watching coverage of the Ohio State/Georgetown game and
UCLA versus Florida. Here are some lines. Ohio State is moving from right-to-left, bounce pass by Conley, picked up between the circles, Oden spins inside for a two-handed dunk. Double-team with back to the basket, lob pass inside to Horford who leans on Mbah a Moute. Collison left-handed dribble and bounce pass to Afflalo on the right wing. Man-to-man defense by the Gators with Brewer on him. Afflalo goes galloping down the lane. UCLA is clad in blue with gold trim. Ben Howland is half-way on the floor begging the official…! Again, everything is visual, as listening on the radio I even know what color the team is wearing.
Here is a bio and description of Kevin Harlan,
who was born in Milwaukee, Wisconsin and is the son of Green Bay
Packers President and CEO Bob Harlan. He has been broadcasting NBA
games on television through TNT for ten years. I always enjoyed his
coverage with Doug Collins as color man. Previously, Harlan worked with
Danny Ainge and John Thompson on TNT. His expertise and interest has
grown over the years, as he has provided coverage for NFL and college
basketball games on FOX, CBS and ESPN. My interest in Kevin Harlan
calling games goes back to my days living in Minneapolis, as Harlan was
the original play-by-play man for the Minnesota Timberwolves for nine
seasons. While the T’Wolves were the laughingstock of the NBA in their
early years, Harlan was providing tremendous coverage that was keeping
fan interest, despite the teams horrific performance. Obviously, the
broadcast stations took notice, as Harlan has become one of the top
professionals in radio and television coverage for the NFL, NBA and
college basketball.
Tune in tonight on ESPN 920 in Las Vegas and
WestwoodOne radio nationwide, as Harlan provides coverage of tonight’s
national title game between Ohio State and Florida. Plenty of great
action and coverage tonight, and maybe even an ‘Oh baby, what a play’!
"Hey, Sonny, you gonna be in any of the books Friday night or Saturday?"
"Yeah, I'll be downtown Friday, and at Orleans on Saturday, why?"
(I ask "why" trying to not sound too anxious.)
"Can ya cover me on something," he says, and though I'm thinking 'anytime and everytime ya friggin jinx' I reply
matter-of-factly, "Sure, what do ya need?"
"I want Florida on the money line versus UNLV."
Now, as everyone knows, I'm not a fan of the kids, and I am not
following this stuff, but in my environment ya can't help pick stuff
up, and I know Florida is supposed to be the GIANT in this thing
(they're the team with the black, Carrot Top lookin guy, right?) and I
know UNLV ain't no Giant Killer. I'm disappointed, because I wanted him
to ask for a bet I could fade, and I'm not about to lay the opposite
and take UNLV on the money line, and I'm not taking them with the
points either. Then he tells me they're not scheduled yet - UNLV has to
get past Oregon on Friday night. I explain that the $200 he wants to
lay on Florida money line will have a lousy return, hoping he'll give
me an alternative to bet for him (one I can fade) but no dice - he
doesn't care if it only brings back a couple bucks, he says he wants to
lose the bet because he wants UNLV to advance and the bet is only
"solice for when they get beat."
Pretzel logic such as this is beyond me, but it's the Mush we're
talking about here, so I agree - I tell him I'll cover it for him and
hang up, thinking it's an opportunity lost.
I get to the Nugget to play in the Friday night poker tournament (I
extended an invite to any SM listeners to join me, and I'll let ya know
if/when I go again - it's a good tournament to play in, AND it #### at
the same time; more on that dichotomy in a future blog.) I stop by the
sports book and I see Oregon is a three point fav over the Rebels.
And it hits me - for the Mush to make money on his Florida money line
bet (and you know THAT ain't gonna happen) UNLV HAS to advance tonight.
I thought there was no opportunity for me to make money off this
usually sure thing (a Mush fade) but like a chess game ya have to see
the whole board.
I lay the three points, and I'm feeling good. I get to my table for the
tournament, and I remember how the Mush #### me by jinxing my super
bowl bet, and I'm thinking I'm going to get my money back.
But wait a minute - I'm STILL not seeing the whole board. UNLV can lose
by 1 or 2, the Mush loses his money line profit (minuscule as it may
be) AND I GET BEAT TOO! With 5 minutes to tip off I rush back to the
book and bet the sure thing - Ducks on the money line. Now the Mush
can't win, and I can't lose. Turns out money line insurance wasn't
necessary, but added a nice little profit to the night anyway, as Ducks
win by 4 laying 3. Ya gotta thank the Lord for making guys like the
Mush. Sorry I was at a casino and unable to share this play with fellow
forum members at SM, but there'll be more. Trust me.
In the meantime, remember - SEE THE WHOLE BOARD! And that means
quarters and halves too, as well as team totals, like my other play on
Friday:
NY/Clev Q1 Un 47 (42 points scored - WINNER)
and Det/SA Q4 Ov 43' ( 47 points scored - WINNER!)
Not to mention a 2-0 Saturday that closed out my week as I took Sunday
off (nothing fit my profiles and I had a profit locked in for the week,
so on the 7th day I rested).
Tubby
Smith left Lexington for ‘greener’ pastures in Minneapolis yesterday,
accepting the vacant Golden Gophers head coaching job. By all
accounts, this looks like a ‘win-win’ situation for both programs.
Smith certainly had great success at Kentucky. He won a national
championship with the Wildcats (albeit with Pick Pitino’s recruits).
Kentucky made the NCAA tournament every year during Smith’s tenure.
They won five SEC titles in ten years. And Smith won 76% of his games
as Kentucky’s head coach, a stellar record at most schools in the
country…. but not at Kentucky.
The Wildcats rabid fan base wanted more. The winningest program
in the history of college basketball has enormous expectations.
Kentucky didn’t take home any SEC hardware in the past two seasons – no
regular season titles, no conference tournament titles. Their fourth
place finish in the SEC East this year was a disaster for Smith, as his
program was clearly falling behind the new power elite of the SEC:
Florida and Tennessee. Losing ten or more games five times in the last
eight years was not something that the Kentucky alumni were willing to
tolerate. And without a Final Four appearance since their national
championship season in 1998, after a ten year run, it was time for
Smith to leave.
Smith signed a seven year deal at $1.8 million per year to take
over the floundering Minnesota program. When Clem Haskins was coaching
the Gophers, Minnesota was a consistent Big 10 contender, but the
program never recovered from the scandals that cost Haskins his job.
Dan Monson was hired from Gonzaga, but Monson watched his Zags become a
national powerhouse while the Gophers struggled to compete in the Big
10. The Gophers haven’t won a game in the Big Dance in more than a
decade.
The Gophers got quality recruits on a consistent basis under
Haskins. Trent Tucker, Voshon Lenard, Bobby Jackson and Walter Bond
are just a handful of the Gopher alumni who went on to NBA success. IN
recent years, however, the talent level just hasn’t been there. Joel
Przybilla, Kris Humphries and Sam Jacobson are the only three Gophers
to reach the NBA in the last ten years. Smith, with his national
championship ring, should immediately improve Minnesota’s recruiting
fortunes.
He’ll have his work cut out for him at Minnesota next year. The
Gophers went 9-22 in the 2007 campaign, just 3-13 in the Big 10.
During Monson’s tenure, Williams Arena declined from one of the
toughest homecourts in all of college basketball into a lifeless, empty
loserdome, as opposing teams dominated Minnesota on their home floor.
There’s little reason to think that Smith won’t be able to gradually
build this program back up, making this a win-win situation for both
the Minnesota and the Kentucky basketball programs.
It has been a wild ride for Oregon this season. The 18-1 start, followed by a stretch of six losses in eight games (six of the eight on the road), followed by a PAC-10 Tournament title. The potent start was a key ingredient in them being overvalued during PAC-10 play as evident by a 6-12 ATS conference mark. Forward Malik Hairston was once the Ducks' top player and a legit NBA prospect, but due to injuries has been not nearly as effective as he could be. Aaron Brooks benefited from freshman Tajuan Porter taking more of the ball handling duties. Brooks was at one time mention for NCAA POY honors. The question remains, can the perimeter-oriented Ducks shoot well enough to make a tournament run. They failed to shoot over 46% in all but one of their last ten regular season games. Size also is an issue, with a four-out-one-under style that leaves 6-9, 215-pound Maarty Leunen alone in the paint. The one thing the Ducks do have is offensive weapons and if facing a team with two or three weak defenders, all five of the Ducks' starters are capable of having big nights. Good guard play and a slew of upperclassmen give Oregon the potential to make a deep run. Will their lack of size eventually hurt them is the looming question. Key Stat: After failing to cover nine of ten games, the Ducks closed out the season covering six straight.
It was an improbable run to the postseason for the Redhawks after mediocre 18-14, 10-6 campaign. To their credit, against the top team in the league in Akron , Miami went 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. The loss was by two points as a 9.5-point underdog. Other games against quality opponents show Miami might be a tad better than how they look on paper. They lost to Wright State by one to open up the year, to Illinois by two and Michigan by six. They also played tough at Kentucky , losing by a modest 11. Offense is definitely not one of the Redhawks' strength with a 59.6 ppg average on the season. The defense, however, allowed a stout 57.4 pg. The strength of team lies in forwards Tim Pollitz (14.6 ppg) and Nathan Peavy (14.2 ppg). Both players combined to shoot 55% FG and take 44% of Miami 's FG attempts. Fellow forward Michael Bramos (10.3 ppg) has stepped up his game of late, averaging 14.5 during his last five contests. The issue with Miami lies in their ability to keep pace with teams. In the Redhawks' 14 losses, they averaged only 51.4 ppg. They scored over 60 points only once in that span. Rebounding is also a concern with a -0.3 mark on the season. Key Stat: After failing to cover nine of ten games, the Ducks closed out the season covering six straight.
Final Take: This is not a good matchup for the offensively challenged Redhawks. The Ducks have had no trouble putting up a lot of points against weaker foes. The emotion of the PAC-10 Tournament title has blowout written all over this one.
As
teams tip-off the 2007 NCAA Basketball Tournament, I thought I’d review
some of ‘Fairways Fundamentals’ in breaking down the games. While there
have been changes in the game over the years with the shot clock
and ‘3’-point line, the fundamentals of college basketball remain the
same when evaluating the match-ups. I have relied on the fundamentals
along with intangibles and technical analysis to produce a 49-31 ATS
mark the past two postseason’s in college basketball.
In an elimination format of the NCAA Tournament, one
poor stretch of play or a scoring drought can end a team’s season.
Likewise, a team that gets hot from the 3-point arch can ride that
momentum to a victory. The difficulty for many handicappers and bettors
is breaking down the match-ups with unknown teams. Evaluating the
statistical information, interpreting the data and evaluating how teams
and players will perform when facing a different level of class
opponent often keeps bettor away from unknown teams. That’s where the
intangibles of coaching, momentum, injuries, senior leadership and team
chemistry play a part. The technical side of the equation comes in
evaluating situations and past performance such as a team’s strength of
schedule, performance playing on the road, results and level of play
versus quality teams and understanding contrary patterns. Of course,
once you think you have a good match-up and situation, you have to
evaluate the pointspread and beat the oddsmaker!
We can discuss quality guard play, good free throw shooting,
interior post presence, a go-to-guy in any match-up. But in so many
contests, the team that defends the best and rebounds the basketball
can often overcome their opponent or their own off-shooting night. So
here are some of the fundamentals to evaluate in upcoming games.
Defense While scoring continues to get headlines
and highlights, teams that play defense and minimize second chance
opportunities will win more games. Coaching often plays a part in a
team’s discipline on defense, and teams that play hard on the defensive
end are worth supporting. The type of defense a team plays may vary
from game to game with man-to-man, zone or full court pressure. Teams
that have athletes and flexibility to adjust are your best bets. After
a full season of results, the overall body of work and numbers should
tell the story. Key stats to analyze are defensive field goal
percentage and turnovers forced, with overall points-per-game allowed
also of note. Look at a teams offensive tempo, and if a team has an
efficient offense with a relatively high number of attempts and still
plays solid defense, you likely have a team worth plenty of support.
Offense With the top teams playing
in the NCAA Tournament, many teams are capable on the defensive end of
shutting down one scoring option. Look for teams with scoring balance,
both from the perimeter and inside. Quality depth can be a factor, but
teams will rely on their top players at crunch time. Recognize a team’s
turnover-to-assist ratio. The ability to play in the half court with an
efficient offense and balanced scoring options will separate teams,
especially in the second half as some teams start to wear down. Thus,
unselfish teams that value and take care of the basketball and give
their teammates good looks will ultimately win out with productive
shooting.
Rebounding One of the most
overlooked areas is evaluating a team’s ability to rebound. The key
here is rebounding margin, which goes together with a team’s defensive
field goal percentage. The top teams will always be strong in these
areas, and the ability to control the boards and minimize second-chance
points will go a long way in determining whether a team advances or
not.
Free Throws The ability to make
foul shots can not only be the difference in a close contest, but often
determines whether you win or lose your wager in the closing minutes.
Yet, this statistic is probably one of the most misleading stats in
college basketball. Top teams like Florida (67%), Ohio State (70),
Kansas (65), North Carolina (70), UCLA (66), Wisconsin (68), Memphis
(61) and Pittsburgh (65) are all below average in this category. Only
Georgetown (72), Oregon (80) and Texas A&M (72) were at least above
average from the charity stripe in conference play. Until they come up
with a statistic that reflects a team’s FT shooting percentage in the
closing minutes o####ame, I would say less consideration should be
given to this statistical category.
3-Point Shooting Nothing has changed the face of
college basketball more than the ‘three-pointer’. The average number of
made 3-point shots is approximately seven per game with 35% efficiency.
Handicapping the 3-point shot and evaluating a teams performance in
this area is one of the most difficult when breaking down a match-up.
Teams can have a significant variance in performance from the arch on
any given night. Thus, focusing on the defensive part of the equation
and teams that are more active on the defensive end with priority in
defending the ‘3’ should be your main focus as well.
There you have it. Some of Fairway’s Fundamentals in
helping you determine pointspread winners in college basketball. Best
wishes as you Shoot for Fairway’s and Green in this years NCAA
Tournament. *
When
March Madness rolls around, no one is immune to the itch to get in on
the action, whether it’s laying down a bet or simply competing in an
office pool. Teddy shares his Top 10 NCAA tournament strategies in
today’s blog entry.
1) Fade the public teams
While teams in the Top 25 often pique the interest of Joe Public,
the smart bettor looks for good spots to bet against favorites. Fading
overvalued clubs can make a big difference to your bottom line.
2) Ride the hot, fade the cold
Pay attention to streaks, particularly early in the tournament.
When betting on a hot team to continue winning you can profit many
times before the streak ends. Betting against streaks, you win only
once.
3) Winning your office pool requires luck
When filling out brackets, the single most important thing is to
pick the eventual champion correctly, since the final game is weighted
the most. Many office pool players work too much on picking the early
round upsets and not enough on their Final Four teams.
4) Defense, defense, defense
While a flashy offense looks great, defense wins championships.
Shooting percentage allowed is a key stat, a far better indicator of
defensive intensity than points per game. Look for underdogs that play
championship level defense.
5) Free throws cover pointspreads
Free throws given up and attempted is another key statistic. When
one team gets to the free throw line far more often than their
opponents, it means that they play fundamentally sound defense and are
aggressive on offense. Remember, an eight point favorite that is
winning by four can cover the spread in the final thirty seconds of the
game if they are capable of hitting their free throws.
6) Don’t forget rebounding
Rebounding differential is crucial to examine. The better
rebounding teams tend to dominate the paint, getting easy looks while
their opponents are relegated to shooting jumpers from the outside.
The extra possessions that good rebounding teams are able to get can
have a huge impact on their results.
7) Look at the guard play
Veteran leadership in the backcourt is one common denominator
among championship caliber teams. Strong guard play results in fewer
turnovers and extra assists – more easy buckets and less wasted
possessions.
8) Throw out the records that don’t matter
When teams play in the NCAA tournament, they are facing top notch
competition away from home. Looking at their records and stats against
weaklings, particularly at home, is utterly irrelevant from a
handicapping perspective. Look at how teams performed against upper
echelon foes away from home for a clearer indicator of their potential.
9) Be aware of home court advantages
While the NCAA tournament is purportedly played on neutral floors,
the selection committee gives relatively friendly trips to a handful of
teams. Louisville, North Carolina and UCLA all have opening weekend
games in a home state environment.
10) Follow the lead of the pros
In the NCAA tournament, many amateurs enter the betting world for
the first time all season. These square bettors tend to back favorites
and overlook schools from smaller conferences. Professional bettors are
far more knowledgeable about smaller conferences and that gives them an
edge when analyzing on-court match-ups. If you need help, don’t be
afraid to rely on the advice of the pros here at Sportsmemo.
Winthrop has garnered a lot of attention from so-called “bracketologists”, talking head analysts and casual fans alike, and I really can’t blame them for thinking the Eagles will become this year’s George Mason and pull a couple of big upsets in the tournament.
The Eagles receive this attention for a number of reasons. First is because of their experience; this team goes seven deep with upperclassmen including three productive seniors at the guard, forward and center positions. Torrell Martin, Michael Jenkins, Craig Bradshaw and Phillip Williams account for the bulk of Winthrop’s points, rebounds, assists and minutes played and will be making their third trip to the NCAA Tournament. Of course we all remember how they fared last year, almost knocking off Tennessee in the first round as a No. 15 seed before a buzzer beating shot eventually doomed them. And tournament experience is a big plus for any team. But Winthrop is also commanding attention because of results from their early season non-conference schedule.
The Eagles played one of the most brutal non-conference slates I have seen with road games against North Carolina, Mississippi State, Maryland, Wisconsin and Texas A&M. If you are keeping track at home that is a No. 1 seed, a No. 2 seed, a No. 3 seed and a No. 4 seed in this year’s bracket! And they showed extremely well in those contests by picking up a win at
Miss. St, and losing by just seven to UNC, 11 to Maryland, by three in OT to Wisconsin, and 20 to Texas A&M. Great results, no doubt, but they wouldn’t cover the number they are seeing right now from the market place which brings me to my point: There just isn’t any value left with Winthrop!
They have become the media darlings and everyone, everyone, is picking them to beat Notre Dame. They recently cracked the national polls and enter the tournament with a fresh No. 22 in the country ranking. Anecdotally speaking, what have we seen from teams that finally crack the Top 25 and start to receive a lot of media attention? I remember losses from a number of teams in that scenario this year: How about Virginia, Virginia Tech, Stanford, Xavier, Indiana, Vanderbilt, USC, the list goes on. Head coach Greg Marshall recently said that being recognized in the Top 25 in the AP Poll has been the culmination of nine years of work. No longer are they the 31st best team or the 27th best team, no, Winthrop is finally seen as the 22nd best team in the country in the eyes of the AP.
Tell me something, do you want your money on a team and a coach that are ecstatic to finally be ranked in the AP Poll, the “apex” of nine years of work, or a team that is pissed off because they just blew a game in which they dominated and should have beaten the best team in the Big East? In fact, looking back, did we already see the beginning stages of a team about to crack under the pressure and hype when Winthrop (as a 20.5 point favorite) nearly lost on the last possession of the Big South Championship?
Notre Dame isn’t a great road team, or even a very good road team, but I firmly believe the value in the line lies with taking the Irish and I will be doing so. Because when it comes right down to it, Notre Dame beat tournament quality teams and Winthrop has only hung around with a couple of them.
On Wednesday, I identified the criteria that has produced the last
nine NCAA champions. Using just the basics from that aforementioned
criteria, I came up with a list of 13 legitimate national championship
contenders: North Carolina, Maryland, Georgetown, Pitt, Notre Dame,
Ohio St, Wisconsin, Kansas, Texas A+M, UCLA, Washington St, Oregon and
Florida. Today, I’ll go through this group team by team, eventually
settling on the one squad that I expect to cut down the nets in Atlanta
on April 2nd.
Notre Dame gets bounced from that list because of their sub .500
road record, the only team among the group listed yesterday that
finished the regular season with a losing mark away from home. Each
of the last nine champs was .500 or better on the road heading into the
tournament.
Defensive acumen eliminates other potential candidates as well.
Again, good defense isn’t enough – the champ must be great defensively,
both in transition and in the halfcourt. The best stat to measure
defensive acumen is defensive field goal percentage allowed. UCLA and
Oregon were the only teams from the above group not to finish in the
top 100 nationally in defensive field goal percentage allowed. The
Ducks, in fact, didn’t finish among the nation’s Top 200 teams. We’ll
bounce them from contention as a result, leaving us with ten contenders
remaining.
Maryland gets bounced for their likely seeding. While the Terps
have come on strong during the last month, barring a run to the ACC
title, Maryland is not going to be any higher than a #4 seed. Again,
history clearly shows that only the top seeds merit serious
consideration. The eventual champion has been seeded no lower than #3
in every year dating back to 1997, when Arizona won it all as a #4
seed. You’ll have to go all the way back to 1988 for a real longshot,
when Larry Brown guided the Kansas Jayhawks to a title as a #6 seed.
14 of the last 17 national champions have been #1 or #2 seeds.
Kansas, North Carolina, Georgetown and Florida all rank in the top
dozen teams in the nation in rebounding margin. Pitt ranks in the Top
25, while Wisconsin, Texas A+M and Ohio State all make the Top 50.
Rebounding margin is a solid core statistic to measure how strong a
team is in the paint. Inside/Outside balance is key to making a run in
March – teams that don’t control the paint don’t win national
championships. This is where we bounce Washington State, who finished
the season ranked 246th in the nation in rebounding margin, getting outboarded by more than two rebounds per game.
Now, we’ll take a look at the guard play, using assist-to-turnover
ratio as our statistic of choice. North Carolina’s Ty Lawson had a
better than 2.3:1 ratio. Pitt’s Levance Fields committed less than two
turnovers per game this year, with a 2.5:1 ratio. Ohio State’s Mike
Conley Jr had more assists than anyone else in this group, dishing out
6.4 dimes per game, with a better than 3:1 ratio – not bad for a true
frosh! Georgetown has no true point guard, with Jesse Sapp, Jonathan
Wallace and Jeff Green all sharing ball handling duties. Between them,
the trio had just a 1.3 assist to turnover ratio.
Backcourt mates Kammron Taylor and Michael Flowers handled the
distributing duties at Wisconsin this year, but between them, they only
averaged five assists per game, leading to a modest 1.67 ratio. A+M’s
Acie Law IV was the Aggies leading scorer and leading assist man,
slightly better than 2:1. Russell Robinson at Kansas is not a scoring
threat, but he’s a solid distributor, with a 2.5:1 ratio. Florida’s
Taurean Green helped guide the Gators to a national championship last
year, so we won’t knock him too hard for his modest 1.4 ratio this
year, although it is troubling to note that his assist numbers are
considerably down from last year.
From this data, we can eliminate Georgetown (darn, my sleeper
heading into this discussion) and Wisconsin, the only two teams with
less than 2:1 assist to turnover ratios from their primary ballhandlers.
And that leaves us with six legitimate contenders to win it all.
North Carolina, Pitt, Ohio State, Texas A+M, Kansas and Florida. I’m
going to eliminate the three youngest teams from this group: North
Carolina, Ohio State and Kansas. While freshmen laden teams have
performed extremely well in recent tournaments , they are also more
ripe for an early round upset, or for an inability to handle the hype
once the Final Four rolls around.
I’m bouncing Texas A+M from this group as well. The Aggies
program has come a long way in a very short time under Billy
Gillespie. But a program that notched only seven wins as recently as
2004 is not a program that I’m comfortable supporting to win a national
title just three years later.
That leaves us with two contenders remaining – Pitt and Florida.
Pitt fits all the statistical criteria, but I’m concerned about a
couple of flaws in the Panthers overall game. Pitt puts a lot of
energy and work into the Big East tournament every year, reaching the
title game six times in the last seven years. They are favored to
reach the title game once again this year. I’m not saying that a team
that wins their conference tournament title can’t win the whole
enchilada, but I am saying that some of the Panthers shortcomings in
recent NCAA tournaments have, in part, come because the team is a
little bit tired after all the hoopla at Madison Square Garden.
Pitt has some other problems as well – poor free throw shooting,
the lack o####o-to scorer during crunch time, limited three point
shooting ability. NBA bound center Aaron Gray has been pushed around
when facing other quality big men, and sophomore point guard Lavance
Fields just doesn’t thrill me as a championship caliber point guard.
So that leaves me with the one team remaining – the boring
choice. Florida cut down the nets for the national title last year,
and I’m going to call for the Gators to become the first team since
Duke in 1991 and 1992 to repeat. With all five starters back from last
year’s team, the best shooting team in the country can withstand an off
night from any one or two of their key players and still advance.
Billy Donovan’s kids were the best team in the country for most of the
year. They know what it takes to win in March. When all is said and
done, I expect Florida to repeat as national champions on the first
Monday in April.
In
a strange anomaly, the Badgers will face the Spartans for the third
time in 18 days Friday, while this will also be their third game
against the Spartans in their last four games. State won the first match-up in East Lansing 64-55 in a game that was much closer than the final would indicate. However,
in their second meeting last Saturday the Spartans were victimized by
foul trouble that most likely cost them the game, while Kammron Taylor
needed a clutch shot at the buzzer for the win. I’m
looking forward to this contest, a match-up that’s really turned into a
heated rivalry that features intense, physical basketball.
I really like this Michigan State
club that’s not as talented as past editions, but they play all-out,
together basketball that was vacant last year from the program. Defensively I believe they’re currently the best the Big 10 has to offer. They give nothing away; while up-front, they feature plenty of length to cause serious problems. In addition, when you talk Michigan State you talk rebounding. In their match-up against Wisky in East Lansing Michigan State annihilated the Badgers on the boards.
Meanwhile, the Badgers are still trying to find their way offensively after the loss of Brian Butch. Butch did just enough outside and inside to really take the pressure off All-American stud Alando Tucker. Instead
of teams double-teaming Tucker they can now triple-team him, while
leaving the likes of Greg Stiesma or Jason Chappell softly guarded. In fact, head coach Tom Izzo found the right match-up against Tucker with his superior defender Travis Wilson. Again, last out in Madison Wilson found himself in severe foul trouble. In the two games without Butch, the Badgers have scored 100 combined points.
This is a very even match-up and the points garnered by the Spartans worth a look.
The University of Tennessee basketball program has faced some unique challenges over the years. For several decades, Tennessee was one of many SEC schools that treated basketball as an afterthought in comparison to football. In the 60's and 70's, the Volunteers were usually the 2nd best team in the SEC. Unfortunately, this was before the massive expansion of the NCAA Tournament field. Only one team from the SEC got a bid into the tournament. It was usually Kentucky. As the NCAA field expanded in the 80's, the Vols went to five straight NCAA tournaments. It was around this time that another challenge hit the program. The University of Tennessee women's basketball team was on its' way to becoming the top program in women's college basketball. The men's team was now overshadowed by the football program and the women's hoops team. Even with the addition of the nation's biggest on campus arena in 1987, the Vols men's basketball program struggled to compete with the success of the football and women's programs. Former Louisville assistant Wade Houston failed to get the Vols into the NCAA tourney despite coaching his All-American son Alan Houston. Kevin O' Neill came in after Houston from Marquette. He also could not get Tennessee into the NCAA field. In the late 90's, Jerry Greene came to the Vols from Oregon. He was able to get Tennessee into the tourney but Greene was eventually deemed to be a guy who could not get the Vols to the next level. After Greene's firing, Buzz Peterson was brought in to guide Tennessee. The "next level" under Peterson was a failure to keep the Vols in the NCAA Tournament. Before the 2005-06 season, the Vols coaching merry-go-round took another spin. After leading Wisconsin-Milwaukee to a Sweet 16 run in the 2005 NCAA Tournament, Bruce Pearl was the next choice for Tennessee. The Vols have finally made the right choice.
Pearl instantly brought some life to the Tennessee program. The club played a frantic, up-tempo brand of basketball that delighted fans and frustrated opponents. The Vols opened several eyes with a stunning 95-78 win over Texas in Austin. Tennessee opened up the 2005-06 campaign with a 19-3 record. Pearl's personality and the ability of his team suddenly enabled the Vols to fill up its' 25,000 seat arena. However, by late February, the Vols were hitting a wall. Tennessee dropped four of their last six games heading into the NCAA Tournament. As a controversial No. 2 seed, the Vols narrowly escaped with a first round win over 15th seed Winthrop. The spent Vols fell in the second round to Wichita State. Still, it was a great season for the Tennessee basketball program.
In his second season, Pearl continued to be a showman on the sidelines while his team continued to provide excitement on the court. Once again, the Vols started quickly with a 13-2 record. However, the late season slump of 2006 would be matched by a mid-season struggle in 2007. Tennessee fell to 13-3 after Vanderbilt hit a shot at the horn to defeat the Vols in Nashville. In their next outing, the Vols dropped another gut wrenching game on the road to the No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes. Tennessee would lose their next five road games to extend the away losing skid to seven. The good news was that Tennessee could not be defeated at home. Still, the Vols needed a road win in the SEC. On Febraury 24th, Tennessee finally broke through to win away from Knoxville with a 83-72 win at Arkansas. The Vols picked up another road win to conclude the regular season at Georgia by a 71-65 count. The spent Vols in 2006 are surging into March in 2007.
Tennessee has won 7 of 8 heading into Thursday's 1st round SEC Tournament matchup against LSU. Junior guard Chris Lofton leads the Vols with an average of 21 points per game. The former Mr. Kentucky high school star is an ideal fit for Pearl's style of play. Lofton has unlimited range with his 3-point shooting ability. He hit the clutch jumper in the final seconds to knock out Winthrop in last year's tournament thriller. Junior guard JaJuan Smith supports Lofton in the backcourt with 15 points per game. Freshman guard Ramar Smith has made an instant impact by averaging a solid 10 points per game to aid the junior guards. The Vols have not had much of an inside game since Pearl took over the program. This issue became a bigger concern when the squad's only real inside presence, Major Wingate, was dismissed from the team before the start of the season. However, a couple of freshman have stepped up to give the Vols some quality play in the front court. Wayne Chism and Duke Crews have combined to average 18 points and 11 rebounds per contest for the Vols.
It is unlikely that Tennessee will land a No. 2 seed in this year's tourney. However, the Vols are ranked 8th in the RPI, a spot ahead of defending national champion Florida. Depending on how the club fares in Atlanta, the Vols could be anywhere from a 3-5 seed on selection Sunday. Regardless of the seed, this Tennessee squad will be a far more difficult out in this year's NCAA Tournament.
The Duke Blue Devils have had a down year by their standards going 22-7 on the campaign with a paltry 8-6 mark in ACC play, good for fifth best in the conference. It wasn’t totally unexpected, for those of us not named #### Vitale, that Duke struggled once they hit the middle of their ACC schedule. Sure they had some good non-conference wins but they hadn’t tested themselves on the road and they certainly hadn’t faced a stretch of games like at Virginia, Florida State, North Carolina and at Maryland. They dropped four straight and of course dropped out of the top 25 rankings at one point earlier this month only to rebound with four straight wins (three of which were on the road).
But what has the winning done? Well, it has inflated the price on Blue Devil games again and quite frankly I’m not sold on the team enough to lay much of a price (if any). And why would we lay with Duke? How many times have we seen them give games away (or try to give a game away only to be helped by rogue clock operators) this year? Well that got me to thinking and here is what I’ve uncovered.
Over the course of their last ten ACC games, since January 25, the Blue Devils have won the first half nine times by an average of 9.3 points. That includes the four game losing streak they suffered from 2/1 to 2/11. The second half proved to be a different story however, where Duke went on to lose nine out of ten by an average of 5.9 points. That is what makes it difficult to back this team over the course o####ame; they just haven’t developed any sort of killer instinct.
But it does leave us with the opportunity to bet this team in the first half and against them in the second half. Tonight may be the first opportunity as Maryland comes to Cameron Indoor as a six point ‘dog on the game line and a three point dog in the first half. Granted there isn’t a ton of “value” in laying three in the first half, needing a four point win to cover, while the game line sits at six. But we have seen Duke consistently win first halves while dropping second halves and I’m willing to bet the trend continues.
With
a 16-team conference, the Big East has plenty of NCAA tourney worthy
clubs. The new look Big East has added to its' depth with the recent
addition of programs like Louisville. Seven or more squads have solid
NCAA prospects as March Madness approaches. Here's a look:
Pittsburgh: RPI(4), 24-4 (11-2
Big East)-The Panthers are still in the running to grab a top seed in
the NCAA tournament. Pitt will face three Top 20 squads to close out
the regular season. The Panthers are a perfect 6-0 in road conference
games.
Georgetown: RPI(18), 21-5 (11-2
Big East)-The Hoyas are peaking at the right time with a current
10-game winning streak. Georgetown will host Pitt in a showdown game on
Saturday. The Hoyas are likely to be a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tourney.
A road win at Vanderbilt is the only non-conference win of note.
Villanova: RPI(19), 18-9 (6-7
Big East)-Despite the high RPI, the Wildcats are not yet a tourney
lock. Villanova has been an up and down team this season after being a
No. 1 seed in the tournament last year. A losing conference mark could
make things a little uncertain on selection Sunday. Non-conference wins
over Iowa and Texas aid the cause.
Marquette: RPI(28), 22-7 (9-5
Big East)-With a winning conference mark secured, Marquette is a
tourney lock. The Eagles ended any doubt by snapping a three-game
losing streak with a home win over Villanova in their last outing.
Victories over Texas Tech and Duke will help in the seeding process.
Notre Dame: RPI(37), 21-6 (9-5
Big East)-The Irish are also a tourney lock heading down the stretch.
Saturday's home game against Marquette will be a key matchup in setting
up seeding heading into the upcoming Big East tournament. The Irish
have solid non-conference wins over Maryland and Alabama.
Louisville: RPI(48), 20-8 (10-4
Big East)-The Cards are in pretty good shape with only two regular
season games to play. Louisville didn't appear to be an NCAA club after
starting with a 12-6 record. Rick Pitino's squad is coming together at
the right time with 8 victories in their last 10 games. Consecutive
road wins over Pittsburgh and Marquette are a sign that this squad
could be dangerous in March.
West Virginia: RPI(54), 20-7
(8-6 Big East)-The Mountaineers are likely to sneak in but they may
need a win in the conference tournament to erase any doubt. West
Virginia is only 5-6 in their last 11 games with a trip to Pittsburgh
upcoming. The club has only one marquee win but it is a huge one. West
Virginia's home win over UCLA could be the difference maker on
selection Sunday.
Syracuse: RPI(65), 19-8 (8-5
Big East)-The Orangemen have won three straight but the remaining slate
is daunting. Syracuse has to travel to Providence and Villanova while
closing their home schedule with Georgetown. The Orangemen are clearly
on the bubble.
The Big East will also have a few squads in this year's NIT. After being ranked in the Top 10 early in the season, Connecticut has had a rare off-season with 10 losses. Other clubs like Providence, Depaul, and St. John's are in position to get into the NIT. The Friars have an outside NCAA chance but will likely have to settle for the NIT.
I
thought I would throw out a couple of injuries that caught my eye for
the upcoming week of college hoops. Some of these guys, obviously, are
more important to their side’s chances of making a run to, or in some
cases in, the postseason.
Dayton
: Monty
Scott (F). Scott effectively had his career at UD ended after an MRI
showed a tear in his patella tendon. The senior forward was the Flyers
second leading scorer and rebounder as well as a big locker room
presence. He was not 100% against UMass and his lack of production
showed
Dayton
to be at a
severe disadvantage on the offensive end as they struggled to keep pace
with the Minutemen. If UD has to rely on Brian Roberts’ three point
shooting alone, they are done.
Loyola (MD):
Gerald Brown (G). A huge game awaits the return of the MAAC’s second
leading scorer after missing a game with dehydration/exhaustion. It’s
no wonder he’s tired, consider this; Brown ranks 2nd in scoring, 17th
in rebounding, 10th in free throw percentage, 10th in steals, 12th in
three pointers made, and 11th in minutes per game. The ‘Hounds meet
Niagara (with whom they are currently tied for second in the MAAC) on
Friday and will need his contributions against the deepest team and
most explosive offense in the conference if they hope to win here on
the road. He is one player that could carry his team single handedly to
the MAAC title.
Nebraska
: Aleks
Maric (C). The Huskers already lost one of their top guards and third
leading scorer in Jamel White, to lose their only inside presence,
leading scorer and rebounder would be devastating.
Nebraska
has been a
solid moneymaker at home this year and absolutely dreadful on the road.
Though Maric was upgraded to probable tonight against Baylor, it will
be worth watching to see if he is indeed 100%. If not, this team can’t
be backed on any court.
Pitt:
Aaron Gray (C). Of course this is the biggest injury in the country
right now as the team’s leading scorer and Big East’s leading rebounder
has already sat out a Pitt win that failed to cover the spread on
Monday. He is questionable with the sprained ankle for the big showdown
on Saturday with Big East co-leaders
Georgetown
. Obviously
without Gray, Georgetown’s duo of Roy Hibbert and Jeff Green would
dominate inside making them a very strong play this weekend to avenge a
five point loss earlier in the year.
There
is plenty of depth this season in the Big 12 conference. However, there
are more questions than answers about which teams are going to actually
make it into the NCAA Tournament. Kansas and Texas A & M are
tourney locks. Both squads are in the hunt to secure a No. 2 seed.
Several other teams will make the dance but most of these clubs have
lacked consistency throughout the season. Here's a look at some of the
Big 12 squads that are fighting for a NCAA bid with less than three
weeks to go before selection Sunday:
Oklahoma State: RPI(36),
19-7(5-6 Big 12)-The Cowboys have some work to do down the stretch.
After a 15-1 start, OSU has dropped six of ten. The biggest problem for
the Cowboys is that they do not have a single road victory this season.
Their five Big 12 road defeats have been by an average margin of 19
points. OSU will host Texas A & M on Wednesday before playing three
of their final four games on the road. Victories over Syracuse and
Pittsburgh are a plus but the Cowboys need at least one road win to
take away any doubt.
Texas Tech: RPI(40), 17-10 (6-6
Big 12)-It has been a roller coaster ride for the Red Raiders this
season. NCAA prospects were looking bleak as Texas Tech visited Texas A
& M with a five-game losing streak on February 13th. Tech pulled
the upset to get back into the tourney discussion. This week is
critical as the Red Raiders will visit Texas before hosting Oklahoma
State this weekend. Tech needs a .500 conference mark to have a
realistic shot. The Red Raiders lost all four of their main
non-conference tests (Marquette, Air Force, Stanford, and UNLV).
Texas: RPI(46), 19-7 (9-3 Big
12)-The record for Texas would seem to make the Longhorns a lock for
the dance. However, the RPI is low enough to make things a little
uncertain going into the final two weeks of the regular season. The
final four games will provide a test. Texas will host Texas Tech and
Texas A & M while the road slate will include visits to Oklahoma
and Kansas. The Longhorns do not have a non-conference impact win but
one more win should be enough to get Texas into the tourney.
Kansas State: RPI(54), 19-9
(8-5 Big 12)-Bob Huggins has made a quick impact in his debut year with
this program. However, the Wildcats will have little margin for error
with just three games to go in the regular season. Kansas State will
travel to Colorado and Oklahoma State before finishing at home against
Oklahoma. A non-conference win over USC is a nice plus but the Wildcats
will likely need a win or two in the conference tourney to make a solid
case to get into the NCAA tournament.
