by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 29th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


San Diego Padres-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 83 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-88
2005-82
2004-87

3-year average: 86  

Lineup-A lack of power is a concern for the Padres in 2007. Here's a look:

C-Josh Bard(29): Bard was a surprise offensive force in 93 games for San Diego last season with a .338 average and some occasional pop with 9 HR's.

1B-Adrian Gonzalez(24): Gonzalez is a young bat to build around as he pounded 24 HR's in 2006.

2B-Marcus Giles(28): Giles average has slipped in each of the last three seasons since he hit .316 in 2003. While he will get to play with his brother Brian in San Diego, Giles could be hard pressed to rebound offensively with half of his games coming in arguably the most difficult hitting park in the majors.  

SS-Khalil Greene(27): Greene has hit 15 HR's in each of the last three seasons. However, he has been slowed by some nagging injuries as Greene has missed 105 games since 2004.

3B-Kevin Kouzmanoff(25): The highly touted prospect has only 16 games of major league experience as he gets a chance to be the Padres 3B in 2007.

LF-Termel Sledge(30): Sledge has played in only 58 games over the last two seasons after hitting 15 homers as a rookie in Montreal in 2004.  

CF-Mike Cameron(34): Cameron has some nice speed and pop as a CF. In 2006, he hit more than 20 HR's with more than 20 stolen bases for the 5th time in his career.   

RF-Brian Giles(36): Even though his power numbers have slipped since joining the Padres, Giles is still highly productive as a hitter. He has drawn over 100 walks in a season in five of the last seven years.  

Overall lineup outlook(4 right-handed batters, 2 left-handed batters, and 2 switch-hitters): The Padres were 13th in the NL in runs scored in 2006. These numbers are a little skewed by the difficulty of scoring runs at Petco Park. San Diego had the NL's 4th best road offense in 2006. The Padres do lack a dominant power bat in the order. They also don't have a lot of high average bats. However, there are some quality line-drive hitters as evidenced by the road performance in 2006. San Diego will likely be near the bottom in the NL runs scored again in 2007 but the offense will be able to do enough to win in support of an outstanding pitching staff.   

Starting rotation-The Padres have a good mix of strong young arms and proven vets in their rotation for 2007.

RHP-Jake Peavy(25): After posting an E.R.A. of under three in 2004-05, Peavy wasn't quite as effective in 2006 with a 4.09 E.R.A. Still, he is a dominant number one for the Padres to build around in the years to come.

RHP-Chris Young(27): Young had an outstanding first season in San Diego with a 3.46 E.R.A. in 2006. A nice number two to compliment Peavy.

RHP-Greg Maddux(41): After posting an E.R.A. of over four in two and a half seasons with the Cubs, Maddux came to life in 12 starts for the Dodgers by posting a 3.36 E.R.A. He should be able to thrive in his starts at Petco Park this season.  

RHP-Clay Hensley(27): A quality young arm at the back of the rotation, Hensley has a fine career E.R.A. of 3.30 in two big league campaigns.   

LHP-David Wells(43): Wells helped San Diego down the stretch last year with a 3.49 in five starts after coming over from Boston. He was effective in his prior stint with the Padres in 2004 with a 3.73 E.R.A.   


Overall rotation outlook: The Padres are well suited for another playoff run with this deep rotation. Peavy and Young form an outstanding duo at the top of this staff. Even past the age of 40, Maddux and Wells are still able to work effectively. San Diego will have one of the top 3 NL starting staffs in 2007.      

Bullpen-The Padres have a good bullpen to support the starting arms.

Setup relief-RHP Scott Linebrink(30) has been one of the better NL setup relievers in recent seasons. RHP Cla Meredith(23) was untouchable in 2006. He posted a 1.07 E.R.A. and allowed only 30 hits in 50.2 innings of work. RHP Scott Cassidy(31) is another quality bullpen arm as he posted a 2.53 E.R.A. last season.    

Closer-RHP Trevor Hoffman(39): Hoffman shows no signs of slowing down after posting his third straight season of more than 40 saves in 2006. He only needs 18 saves this year to reach the 500 mark in his career.

Overall pitching outlook: The Padres easily allowed the fewest runs in the NL in 2006. The 2007 season should result in some similar results. San Diego has plenty of quality arms in the starting staff as well in the bullpen. The overall staff has an ideal mix of strong young arms and proven veterans who still have something left in the tank. The Padres are poised to have the NL's best pitching unit again in 2007.        

Final recap and recommendation: The Padres have learned how to win with consecutive playoff appearances heading into the 2007 campaign. While a third straight playoff trip might be out of reach, San Diego will deliver another winning season this year. Even with an offense that won't overpower too many foes in 2007, the Padres won't have to score too much behind the league's best pitching staff. The arms will carry San Diego to more wins than losses this season as the Padres win at least 84 contests in 2007.            

OVER 83 1/2 WINS: * 1-Star