by David Jones, team handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

This is the 25th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I would recommend placing a wager on.


Tampa Bay Devil Rays-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 67 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2006-61
2005-67
2004-70

3-year average: 66  

Lineup-The Devil Rays have some promising youngsters in their lineup. Here's a look:

C-Dioner Navarro(23): Navarro is still adjusting to big league pitching with a .264 average in 451 career at-bats.

1B-TY Wiggington(29): After putting up some average offensive numbers in the NL with the Mets and Pirates, Wiggington had a fine year in Tampa last season with 24 HR's and 79 RBI's despite missing 40 games. He makes the move from third to first in 2007.   

2B-Jorge Cantu(25): Cantu was slowed by injuries in 2006 after he drove in 117 runs in 2005. Still, he was productive with 62 RBI's in 107 games last year.

SS-Ben Zobrist(25): Zobrist will need to produce to hold off top prospect B.J. Upton as the starting shortstop in 2007. Neither Zobrist or Upton did any damage at the plate in limited action last year but Upton is poised to eventually get the everyday job in Tampa.

3B-Akinori Iwamura(28): Iwamura hit 106 homers in his last three seasons in the Japanese league.

LF-Carl Crawford(25): Crawford hit a career-best .305 in 2006. He has increased his HR total in each of his five big league campaigns.  

CF-Rocco Baldelli(25): Baldelli made the long journey back to the field in 2006 after missing the entire 2005 season. He gave the D-Rays a lift by hitting .302 in 92 games with 57 RBI's. Baldelli could be poised for a huge 2007 after hitting 9 HR's last September.

R####elmon Young(21): Another top D-Rays prospect, Young hit .317 in 30 games as a rookie in 2006.   

DH-Johnny Gomes(26): Gomes hit only .216 in 2006 after hitting .282 in 2005. He has displayed some nice power with 41 homers in his career in only 762 at-bats.

Overall lineup outlook(5 right-handed batters, 2 left-handed batters, and 2 switch-hitters): The D-Rays were a distant last in the AL in runs scored in 2006. Tampa could be poised for some huge offensive improvement in 2007. Baldelli, Cantu, and Wiggington missed a combined 165 games last season. This trio was very productive when healthy in 2006. Also, Iwamura and Young will be significant new contributors in this year's lineup. There is some nice pop in the order as seven of the nine bats have the potential to hit 20+ HR's in 2007. While this young group will likely run hot and cold at times this season, the Tampa offense has gained some valuable experience in recent seasons. The Devil Rays will score a lot more runs in 2007 as this crew will do some surprising damage to some opposing AL pitching staffs this season.      

Starting rotation-The D-Rays have a shaky starting staff in 2007.

LHP-Scott Kazmir(23): The D-Rays made one of the great deals in recent memory when they picked up Kazmir from the Mets in 2004. Kazmir has been the lone bright spot in the Tampa rotation in the last two years with E.R.A's of 3.77 and 3.24. A solid number one for Tampa to build around in the years to come.

RHP-James Shields(25): As a rookie in 2006, Shields was solid at home (3.94 E.R.A.) but suspect on the road (5.65 E.R.A.). He should make some progress in 2007 as Shields did record 104 strikeouts in 125.2 innings of work last year.

LHP-Casey Fossum(29): Control problems have kept Fossum from progressing as a big league starter. He only averaged 5.1 innings per start in 2006. With a 5.20 career E.R.A., Fossum isn't a lock to stay in this rotation throughout the 2007 season.   

RHP-Jae Seo(29): Seo seemed like a pitcher on the rise after posting a 2.59 E.R.A. with the Mets in 2005 in 14 starts. 2006 was a major reversal for him as he struggled to a 5.33 E.R.A. with the Dodgers and D-Rays. If he can pitch closer to his 2005 form this season, this staff could make some strides.   

RHP-Tim Corcoran(28): Corcoran posted a 4.41 E.R.A. in 16 starts for Tampa last season. He will need to harness his control in 2007 after issuing 48 walks in just 90.2 innings of work in 2006.

Overall rotation outlook: While the Tampa organization has been able to assemble some quality hitting prospects, the Devil Rays continue to suffer in the arms department. Beyond Kazmir, this rotation is razor thin. While pitchers like Shields and Seo have the potential to pitch better this season, these hurlers aren't likely to be able to provide much help to Kazmir in this rotation. The starting problems eventually lead to a worn down bullpen as well. The one positive for the pitching lies in the improved offense as this will take some of the pressure off of the starting hurlers in 2007. However, the D-Rays will join the Royals at the bottom of the AL starting pitching staffs in 2007.    

Bullpen-The Devil Rays pitching woes are also felt in the pen.

Setup relief-RHP Rudy Lugo(26) allowed only 75 hits in 85 innings of work last year. RHP Shawn Camp(31) was durable for the D-Rays with 75 appearances in 2006. He will look to improve in 2007 after allowing 93 hits in 75 innings last season. As a small-market club, the D-Rays aren't able to address their setup and middle relief adequately. The rest of the bullpen roles will have to be defined as the season progresses as a number of young hurlers try to gain innings out of the pen in 2007.  

Closer-RHP Seth McClung(26): After struggling as a starter in 2006, McClung fared better later in the season in the bullpen with six saves in seven opportunities. Control is a concern for McClung after he issued 68 walks in 103 innings last season.  

Overall pitching outlook: Only Baltimore and Kansas City gave up more runs in the AL last season than Tampa. With the overall staff being virtually unchanged from a year ago, the Devil Rays will struggle in the pitching department again in 2007. Beyond Kazmir, there really isn't much upside to this staff. The biggest downfall of the Tampa organization has been its' inability to develop arms in their farm system. Until this issue is resolved, the Devil Rays will continue to reside at the bottom of the AL East standings. Tampa will challenge for the worst AL pitching staff again in 2007.  

Final recap and recommendation: The Devil Rays have been consistent losers in their nine years as a major league team. In each season, Tampa Bay has lost more than 90 games. After nine long years, the Devil Rays are finally taking some small steps towards being a club that can soon avoid the 90-loss seasons. The everyday lineup has tremendous potential. However, the small market D-Rays may not be willing to pay the tab to keep players like Crawford and Baldelli on a long term basis. Still, for 2007, this lineup should be able to deliver some meaningful progress. While the pitching is suspect, the D-Rays will have Kazmir to turn to every 5th day. The pitching will likely keep the D-Rays in last place again in 2007. However, there is enough young thunder in the everyday lineup to enable Tampa Bay to win at least 68 games this season.    

OVER 67 1/2 WINS-* 1-Star