If you’ve read my Bio at Sports Memo, you
know I listed my favorite sports announcer as Kevin Harlan. Tonight’s
college basketball national title game between Florida and Ohio State
will be broadcast on WestwoodOne radio nationwide with Kevin Harlan
providing the play-by-play coverage. In my opinion, Harlan’s coverage
of the game is the best in the business, as he’s colorful,
entertaining, but most importantly descriptive. He’s known for his
witty dialogue and vast assortment of creative banter. Yet, he provides
a visualization that few others approach when announcing a game. If
you’re at home and watching the game on TV, I recommend turning down
the television volume and voices of Jim Nance and Billy Packer and
listening to Harlan’s play-by-play radio coverage. The color
commentators are Bill Raftery and John Thompson, the former Georgetown
coach.
I caught portions of the semi-final games Saturday
night, and was able to listen to Harlan describe the action. I like
that he gives a regular score update and even shot-clock updates, as
there is nothing more frustrating to a bettor than to tune into a game
and wait many minutes to hear the score. While I didn’t hear any of his
widely known ‘Right between the Eyes’, or ‘Oh baby, what a play’
screaming of basketball brilliance, I did hear precise, colorful
description of the game. Harlan doesn’t just tell you that the player
‘dribbles past’ the defender, it’s a ‘crossover’ dribble. No ‘shot missed’ from the outside, it’s ‘an 18-footjumper off the back
rim’. Everything is visually descriptive, and I tried to take some
notes while both driving and ultimately at my home office desk while
listening and watching coverage of the Ohio State/Georgetown game and
UCLA versus Florida. Here are some lines. Ohio State is moving from right-to-left, bounce pass by Conley, picked up between the circles, Oden spins inside for a two-handed dunk. Double-team with back to the basket, lob pass inside to Horford who leans on Mbah a Moute. Collison left-handed dribble and bounce pass to Afflalo on the right wing. Man-to-man defense by the Gators with Brewer on him. Afflalo goes galloping down the lane. UCLA is clad in blue with gold trim. Ben Howland is half-way on the floor begging the official…! Again, everything is visual, as listening on the radio I even know what color the team is wearing.
Here is a bio and description of Kevin Harlan,
who was born in Milwaukee, Wisconsin and is the son of Green Bay
Packers President and CEO Bob Harlan. He has been broadcasting NBA
games on television through TNT for ten years. I always enjoyed his
coverage with Doug Collins as color man. Previously, Harlan worked with
Danny Ainge and John Thompson on TNT. His expertise and interest has
grown over the years, as he has provided coverage for NFL and college
basketball games on FOX, CBS and ESPN. My interest in Kevin Harlan
calling games goes back to my days living in Minneapolis, as Harlan was
the original play-by-play man for the Minnesota Timberwolves for nine
seasons. While the T’Wolves were the laughingstock of the NBA in their
early years, Harlan was providing tremendous coverage that was keeping
fan interest, despite the teams horrific performance. Obviously, the
broadcast stations took notice, as Harlan has become one of the top
professionals in radio and television coverage for the NFL, NBA and
college basketball.
Tune in tonight on ESPN 920 in Las Vegas and
WestwoodOne radio nationwide, as Harlan provides coverage of tonight’s
national title game between Ohio State and Florida. Plenty of great
action and coverage tonight, and maybe even an ‘Oh baby, what a play’!
"Hey, Sonny, you gonna be in any of the books Friday night or Saturday?"
"Yeah, I'll be downtown Friday, and at Orleans on Saturday, why?"
(I ask "why" trying to not sound too anxious.)
"Can ya cover me on something," he says, and though I'm thinking 'anytime and everytime ya friggin jinx' I reply
matter-of-factly, "Sure, what do ya need?"
"I want Florida on the money line versus UNLV."
Now, as everyone knows, I'm not a fan of the kids, and I am not
following this stuff, but in my environment ya can't help pick stuff
up, and I know Florida is supposed to be the GIANT in this thing
(they're the team with the black, Carrot Top lookin guy, right?) and I
know UNLV ain't no Giant Killer. I'm disappointed, because I wanted him
to ask for a bet I could fade, and I'm not about to lay the opposite
and take UNLV on the money line, and I'm not taking them with the
points either. Then he tells me they're not scheduled yet - UNLV has to
get past Oregon on Friday night. I explain that the $200 he wants to
lay on Florida money line will have a lousy return, hoping he'll give
me an alternative to bet for him (one I can fade) but no dice - he
doesn't care if it only brings back a couple bucks, he says he wants to
lose the bet because he wants UNLV to advance and the bet is only
"solice for when they get beat."
Pretzel logic such as this is beyond me, but it's the Mush we're
talking about here, so I agree - I tell him I'll cover it for him and
hang up, thinking it's an opportunity lost.
I get to the Nugget to play in the Friday night poker tournament (I
extended an invite to any SM listeners to join me, and I'll let ya know
if/when I go again - it's a good tournament to play in, AND it #### at
the same time; more on that dichotomy in a future blog.) I stop by the
sports book and I see Oregon is a three point fav over the Rebels.
And it hits me - for the Mush to make money on his Florida money line
bet (and you know THAT ain't gonna happen) UNLV HAS to advance tonight.
I thought there was no opportunity for me to make money off this
usually sure thing (a Mush fade) but like a chess game ya have to see
the whole board.
I lay the three points, and I'm feeling good. I get to my table for the
tournament, and I remember how the Mush #### me by jinxing my super
bowl bet, and I'm thinking I'm going to get my money back.
But wait a minute - I'm STILL not seeing the whole board. UNLV can lose
by 1 or 2, the Mush loses his money line profit (minuscule as it may
be) AND I GET BEAT TOO! With 5 minutes to tip off I rush back to the
book and bet the sure thing - Ducks on the money line. Now the Mush
can't win, and I can't lose. Turns out money line insurance wasn't
necessary, but added a nice little profit to the night anyway, as Ducks
win by 4 laying 3. Ya gotta thank the Lord for making guys like the
Mush. Sorry I was at a casino and unable to share this play with fellow
forum members at SM, but there'll be more. Trust me.
In the meantime, remember - SEE THE WHOLE BOARD! And that means
quarters and halves too, as well as team totals, like my other play on
Friday:
NY/Clev Q1 Un 47 (42 points scored - WINNER)
and Det/SA Q4 Ov 43' ( 47 points scored - WINNER!)
Not to mention a 2-0 Saturday that closed out my week as I took Sunday
off (nothing fit my profiles and I had a profit locked in for the week,
so on the 7th day I rested).
End
of the line for the Butler Bulldogs tonight, as they take on the
nations top team in Florida. The Gators can turn up the heat and flex
their muscle inside versus the Bulldogs, who’s leading rebounder is
6’1" guard Mike Green; a very quick and instinctual player that also
leads Butler in assists. Few second-chance opportunities will limit
Butler’s scoring however, as they were last in rebounding offense in
the Horizon league and were dominated on the boards in their last
tournament game versus Maryland (36-21). Butler was able to ride their
strong 3-point shooting to victory (12/26) over the Turtles, but not
likely over the Gators. Butler set a Horizon league record for 3-point
shots made this season (314), but now they face the SEC’s best 3-point
defense of Florida.
Butler (29-6) has
some nice non-conference wins this season, beating Notre Dame, Indiana,
Tennessee and Gonzaga. They were out-rebounded in each of those
contests, but have shown they can play pretty solid defense and they
led the nation in fewest turnovers. The upperclass-laden team plays
together and often dictates tempo. Seniors Julian Betko and Brian Ligon
have really inspired this team. But talent, skill and overall ability
will win-out tonight, and Butler just has not faced a team like Florida (31-5).
The Gators point guard Taurean Green can match Mike Green’s
quickness, but it will be a good match-up to see who can break the
other guy down and minimize dribble penetration. The Gators may well go
with Cory Brewer (6’9") to guard A.J. Graves, as Brewer is long,
athletic and can come out and defend the perimeter against Butler’s top
3-point shooter. Brewer can really run the floor as well, and is a
match-up problem for nearly everyone. Butler also likes to run ball
screens to pop open forwards Brandon Crone and Pete Campbell, the
Bulldogs other 3-point shooters. Should Butler be off the mark from the
arch, they better get back and defend quickly, as Florida’s forwards
fun the floor so well. The Gators have such a big edge inside that I
expect them to just dominate the paint and really score, both inside
and through transition. Florida led the SEC in FG shooting (51%), and
Butler just can’t match the interior strength of Al Horford, Joakim
Noah and Brewer. The more the ball goes inside the better for Florida,
as good things happen whether their bigs shoot it or not. Senior guard
Lee Humphrey is the Gators leading 3-point shooter, and he’ll get some
open looks if Florida does kick out.
Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in
1985, only four teams seeded no. 5 or lower that beat a no. 1 have come
from outside the six major conferences. Those were George Mason over
Connecticut (2006), UAB over Kentucky (2004), Rhode Island over Kansas
(1998) and UTEP over Kansas (1992). However, none of those victims was
a defending national champion. Butler has been a quality team and a
nice story this season, and the Bulldogs are even getting a little
money this morning with the Gators now available at minus (-10) in
places. However, I believe Florida can extend and win this by
double-digits. *
Here is what I wrote two weeks ago about the eventual NCAA champion:
“History shows us many things about what it takes to be a
champion. I write this essay every year, and every year, I have been
able to identify the eventual champion among my elite level teams. The
last nine champions -- Kentucky over Utah in ’98, UConn over Duke in
’99, Michigan St over Florida in 2000, Duke over Arizona in ’01,
Maryland over Indiana in ’02, Syracuse over Kansas in ’03, UConn over
Georgia Tech in ’04, North Carolina over Illinois in ’05 and Florida
over UCLA in ‘06 – all had very specific abilities as a team that
allowed them to go all the way.
“Cinderella’s have reached the championship game. Florida (in
2000) and Indiana (in 2002) stand out as two teams that were not among
the top 16 seeds in the tournament. But those Cinderella’s have been
unable to seal the deal – the eventual champion has been seeded no
lower than #3 in every single year dating back to 1997, when Arizona
won it all as a #4 seed. You’ll have to go all the way back to 1988
for a real longshot, when Larry Brown guided the Kansas Jayhawks to a
title as a #6 seed. 14 of the last 17 national champions have been #1
or #2 seeds, although the Gators cut down the nets as a #3 seed last
year.
“To earn that type of a seed, the eventual champion must have
been an elite level team all year. None of the last nine champions had
more than seven regular season losses. The hidden factor behind those
numbers, is, of course, road success – each eventual champ was .500 or
better on the road heading into the tournament season.
“Each of the past nine champions was from one of the six
‘major’ conferences. The mid-majors measure success with Sweet 16
berths, not Final Four trips, despite George Mason’s amazing run last
March. We’ve seen Louisville and Marquette make it to the Final Four
from Conference USA (both teams are now in the Big East), and Utah make
the championship game from the WAC (at the time; now they are in the
Mountain West), but those are clearly the exceptions, not the rule.
“Basically, if a team is not from the Big East, ACC, Big 10,
Big 12, SEC or PAC-10, they aren’t facing enough tough competition on a
nightly basis to get them ready for an extended tournament run. Sorry
Memphis, Butler, Nevada, Southern Illinois and Gonzaga – you’re not
going to make my list.
“Using just the seven losses, and major conference criteria alone, we
can narrow the list of potential NCAA tournament winners down to the
following group of 13 teams: North Carolina, Maryland, Georgetown,
Pitt, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Kansas, Texas A+M, UCLA,
Washington St, Oregon and Florida. I’ll wager dollars to donuts that
the 2006 champion is one of these teams.
“Notre Dame gets bounced from that list because of their sub
.500 road record, the only team among the group listed yesterday that
finished the regular season with a losing mark away from home. Each
of the last nine champs was .500 or better on the road heading into the
tournament.
“Defensive acumen eliminates other potential candidates as
well. Again, good defense isn’t enough – the champ must be great
defensively, both in transition and in the halfcourt. The best stat to
measure defensive acumen is defensive field goal percentage allowed.
UCLA and Oregon were the only teams from the above group not to finish
in the top 100 nationally in defensive field goal percentage allowed.
The Ducks, in fact, didn’t finish among the nation’s Top 200 teams.
We’ll bounce them from contention as a result, leaving us with ten
contenders remaining.
“Maryland gets bounced for their likely seeding. While the
Terps have come on strong during the last month, barring a run to the
ACC title, Maryland is not going to be any higher than a #4 seed.
Again, history clearly shows that only the top seeds merit serious
consideration. The eventual champion has been seeded no lower than #3
in every year dating back to 1997, when Arizona won it all as a #4
seed. You’ll have to go all the way back to 1988 for a real longshot,
when Larry Brown guided the Kansas Jayhawks to a title as a #6 seed.
14 of the last 17 national champions have been #1 or #2 seeds.
“Kansas, North Carolina, Georgetown and Florida all rank in
the top dozen teams in the nation in rebounding margin. Pitt ranks in
the Top 25, while Wisconsin, Texas A+M and Ohio State all make the Top
50. Rebounding margin is a solid core statistic to measure how strong
a team is in the paint. Inside/Outside balance is key to making a run
in March – teams that don’t control the paint don’t win national
championships. This is where we bounce Washington State, who finished
the season ranked 246th in the nation in rebounding margin, getting outboarded by more than two rebounds per game.
“From assist to turnover data, we can eliminate Georgetown and
Wisconsin, the only two teams with less than 2:1 assist to turnover
ratios from their primary ballhandlers. Great guard play is an absolute
essential for winning the tournament.
“Our list is down to six: North Carolina, Ohio St, Kansas, Texas A+M, Pitt and Florida.” I settled on the Gators as my choice to cut down the nets for the second consecutive year.
My broader list of 13 potential champions looks pretty good:
“North Carolina, Maryland, Georgetown, Pitt, Notre Dame, Ohio St,
Wisconsin, Kansas, Texas A+M, UCLA, Washington St, Oregon and Florida.
I’ll wager dollars to donuts that the 2006 champion is one of these
teams.” Nine of those 13 teams won two games this past weekend, moving
on to the Sweet 16. Against the spread, those 13 teams showed modest
profitability, going 14-11 ATS this past weekend.
The ‘short’ list of the six teams that I felt were most likely to
win the title looks pretty good as well. North Carolina, Ohio St,
Kansas, Texas A+M, Pitt and Florida are all alive and well in the
tournament. Five of them are favored this weekend; three favored by
nine points or more, expected by the betting marketplace to have a
fairly easy time reaching the Elite Eight.
This is no great surprise. My list of championship contenders
largely comprised the best teams in college basketball this year. 11
of the 13 teams on my short list of potential champions ended up as #3
seeds or higher, with Memphis being the only non potential champion
among the top dozen seeds in the Big Dance.
In a year where laying the chalk has clearly been the way to go
during March Madness (favorites are covering better than 60% of the
time through the first two rounds), it’s no surprise to see the chalk
perform well in straight up fashion as well. Whether the tournament
chalk continues their stellar run this weekend remains to be seen….
History
shows us many things about what it takes to be a champion. I write
this article every year, and every year, I have been able to identify
the eventual champion among my elite level teams. The last nine
champions -- Kentucky over Utah in ’98, UConn over Duke in ’99,
Michigan St over Florida in 2000, Duke over Arizona in ’01, Maryland
over Indiana in ’02, Syracuse over Kansas in ’03, UConn over Georgia
Tech in ’04, North Carolina over Illinois in ’05 and Florida over UCLA
in ‘06 – all had very specific abilities as a team that allowed them to
go all the way.
Cinderella’s have reached the championship game. Florida (in
2000) and Indiana (in 2002) stand out as two teams that were not among
the top 16 seeds in the tournament. But those Cinderella’s have been
unable to seal the deal – the eventual champion has been seeded no
lower than #3 in every single year dating back to 1997, when Arizona
won it all as a #4 seed. You’ll have to go all the way back to 1988
for a real longshot, when Larry Brown guided the Kansas Jayhawks to a
title as a #6 seed. 14 of the last 17 national champions have been #1
or #2 seeds, although the Gators cut down the nets as a #3 seed last
year.
To earn that type of a seed, the eventual champion must have been
an elite level team all year. None of the last nine champions had more
than seven regular season losses. The hidden factor behind those
numbers, is, of course, road success – each eventual champ was .500 or
better on the road heading into the tournament season.
I would be very surprised to see a team win the whole thing this
year if they enter the tournament with more than seven losses. To win
the Big Dance, teams have to be better than good, or even very good.
Winning six straight games over three weekends requires greatness.
Each of the past nine champions was from one of the six ‘major’
conferences. The mid-majors measure success with Sweet 16 berths, not
Final Four trips, despite George Mason’s amazing run last March. We’ve
seen Louisville and Marquette make it to the Final Four from Conference
USA (both teams are now in the Big East), and Utah make the
championship game from the WAC (at the time; now they are in the
Mountain West), but those are clearly the exceptions, not the rule.
Basically, if a team is not from the Big East, ACC, Big 10, Big
12, SEC or PAC-10, they aren’t facing enough tough competition on a
nightly basis to get them ready for an extended tournament run. Sorry
Memphis, Butler, Nevada, Southern Illinois and Gonzaga – you’re not
going to make my list.
Every champion had a top notch point guard – Mateen Cleaves,
Khalid El-Amin, Steve Blake and Jason Williams just to name a few.
Each had great inside/outside balance, with the ability to pound the
ball down low as well as strong perimeter shooters from the outside.
One dimensional teams won’t go all the way, and rarely make it
even as far as the Final Four – a champion cannot simply run and gun
here in the 21st century. UNLV was the last team to win a championship that way, and that was sixteen years ago (my, how time flies!).
In this era, contenders must be able to beat teams using their
half court offense almost exclusively, as the level of defense that
they’ll face rises with each passing game of the tournament. The past
nine champions were all rock solid defensive teams, probably the most
overlooked category among bracketologists in the office pools. And
their inside presence wasn’t marginal – each of those champions that
were positively dominant on the boards.
Depth was not a major concern for any of the champions – each was
able to survive the game, or games, where key players suffered from
foul trouble or cold shooting nights. Depth, rebounding, defense,
balance, great play at the point and in the paint, the ability to run
halfcourt sets – the criteria for a potential champion is very specific.
Using just the seven losses, and major conference criteria alone,
we can narrow the list of potential NCAA tournament winners down to the
following group of 13 teams: North Carolina, Maryland,
Georgetown, Pitt, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Kansas, Texas A+M,
UCLA, Washington St, Oregon and Florida. I’ll wager dollars to donuts that the 2006 champion is one of these teams.
Check back tomorrow when I pick apart this baker’s dozen of
championship contenders, making my choice for the eventual national
champ.
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