This
is the 30th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
San Francisco Giants-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 80 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-76
2005-75
2004-91
3-year average: 81
Lineup-The Giants have a veteran group of bats in their lineup. Here's a look:
C-Bengie Molina(32): Molina hit 19 homers in just 117 games last season in Toronto.
1B-Rich Aurilia(35): Aurilia returns to the Giants for the first time
since 2003. He hit 23 homers in 122 games in 2006 for the Reds.
2B-Ray Durham(35): Durham had a career-best 93 RBI's in 2006 despite missing 25 games. A solid bat at second base.
SS-Omar Vizquel(39): Vizquel is still a productive hitter as he hit .295 in 2006 with 10 triples.
3B-Pedro Feliz(31): Feliz had a career-high 98 RBI's last season. He
has had at least 20 HR's and 30 doubles in each of the last three
seasons.
LF-Barry Bonds(42): After playing in only 14 games in 2005, Bonds hit
26 homers in 130 games in 2006 to move within 22 homers of Henry Aaron.
Bonds provides a domino effect for the lineup with his power and his
ability to draw walks.
C####ave Roberts(34): The Giants are hoping the speed of Roberts will
bring a new dimension to the lineup. In his last two years in San
Diego, he stole 120 bases with 23 triples.
RF-Randy Winn(32): Winn is a solid line drive bat in right field for the Giants.
Overall lineup outlook(3 right-handed batters,2 left-handed batters,
and 2 switch-hitters): Even with Bonds in the lineup for most of the
year, the Giants only finished 10th in the NL in runs scored a year
ago. With all of the everyday players past the age of 30, San Francisco
will be hard pressed to make an improvement in 2007. While all of these
hitters are capable performers, they have already played their best
baseball. Also, age and injuries will certainly come into play for this
team over a long 162-game campaign. Look for the Giants to be in the
bottom half of NL offenses again in 2007.
Starting rotation-Barry Zito is on board as the new staff ace.
LHP-Barry Zito(28): Since posting a 47-17 record in his first three big
league campaigns, Zito has only been slightly above .500 in the last
four years with a 55-46 record. He will be counted on after the
departure of Jason Schmidt.
RHP-Matt Cain(22): Cain has some nasty stuff as the number two starter.
He came on after last season's All-Star break to post a 3.26 E.R.A. in
15 starts.
LHP-Noah Lowry(26): After a posting a 3.80 E.R.A. in his first two
seasons, Lowry struggled to a 4.75 E.R.A. in 2006. He must have a
rebound year in 2007 if the Giants are going to contend.
RHP-Matt Morris(32): After winning 79 games in his last five seasons in
St. Louis, Morris might be a shot pitcher after posting a five E.R.A.
in his first year with the Giants.
RHP-Russ Ortiz(32): The Giants are hoping that Ortiz can recapture some
past magic in his return to San Francisco. After being a big winner
with the Giants and Braves, Ortiz has posted a record of 5-19 over the
last two seasons with an E.R.A. of over seven.
Overall rotation outlook: Five years ago, this staff would have had
three of the top arms in baseball with Zito, Morris, and Ortiz. Five
years later, this trio isn't quite the same. While Zito is still an
elite pitcher, his E.R.A. of 4.05 since 2004 isn't overwhelming. Zito
and Cain should be fine at the top of the rotation but spots 3-5 are
pretty shaky. It is a reach to expect Morris and Ortiz to approach
their old forms. Look for the Giants to have a middle of the pack NL
starting staff in 2007.
Bullpen-The Giants have a decent, if not outstanding, bullpen.
Setup relief-RHP Kevin Correia(26) posted a solid 3.49 E.R.A. in 2006.
LHP Steve Kline(34) has been a quality lefty specialist for several
seasons. LHP Brad Hennessey(27) is versatile with his ability to
relieve or start.
Closer-RHP Armando Benitez(34): While Benitez has compiled 280 saves,
he is no longer as dominant as he used to be. He blew 8 of 25 save
chances in 2006.
Overall pitching outlook: The Giants were 8th in the NL in runs allowed
in 2006. While Zito is a few years younger than Schmidt, the
performance level of the two pitchers should be pretty similar in 2007.
Cain should only get better as he continues to harness his stuff.
However, there aren't enough real positives for the rest of the
pitching staff. The back of the rotation is shaky and there are some
minor depth concerns in the pen. Look for the Giants to be in the
middle of NL pitching staffs again in 2007.
Final recap and recommendation: The Giants have tried to win with a
veteran team since 2005. After two losing seasons, San Francisco will
try again to make one last push with Barry Bonds and a lineup of
players over the age of 30. While the Giants have a group of vets with
some solid track records, it is hard to expect this team to do severe
offensive damage in 2007. The pitching also appears to be average
heading into this campaign. To sum it up, San Francisco doesn't have
enough of an upside to make significant improvement in 2007.
This
is the 29th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
San Diego Padres-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 83 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-88
2005-82
2004-87
3-year average: 86
Lineup-A lack of power is a concern for the Padres in 2007. Here's a look:
C-Josh Bard(29): Bard was a surprise offensive force in 93 games for
San Diego last season with a .338 average and some occasional pop with
9 HR's.
1B-Adrian Gonzalez(24): Gonzalez is a young bat to build around as he pounded 24 HR's in 2006.
2B-Marcus Giles(28): Giles average has slipped in each of the last
three seasons since he hit .316 in 2003. While he will get to play with
his brother Brian in San Diego, Giles could be hard pressed to rebound
offensively with half of his games coming in arguably the most
difficult hitting park in the majors.
SS-Khalil Greene(27): Greene has hit 15 HR's in each of the last three
seasons. However, he has been slowed by some nagging injuries as Greene
has missed 105 games since 2004.
3B-Kevin Kouzmanoff(25): The highly touted prospect has only 16 games
of major league experience as he gets a chance to be the Padres 3B in
2007.
LF-Termel Sledge(30): Sledge has played in only 58 games over the last
two seasons after hitting 15 homers as a rookie in Montreal in 2004.
CF-Mike Cameron(34): Cameron has some nice speed and pop as a CF. In
2006, he hit more than 20 HR's with more than 20 stolen bases for the
5th time in his career.
RF-Brian Giles(36): Even though his power numbers have slipped since
joining the Padres, Giles is still highly productive as a hitter. He
has drawn over 100 walks in a season in five of the last seven years.
Overall lineup outlook(4 right-handed batters, 2 left-handed batters,
and 2 switch-hitters): The Padres were 13th in the NL in runs scored in
2006. These numbers are a little skewed by the difficulty of scoring
runs at Petco Park. San Diego had the NL's 4th best road offense in
2006. The Padres do lack a dominant power bat in the order. They also
don't have a lot of high average bats. However, there are some quality
line-drive hitters as evidenced by the road performance in 2006. San
Diego will likely be near the bottom in the NL runs scored again in
2007 but the offense will be able to do enough to win in support of an
outstanding pitching staff.
Starting rotation-The Padres have a good mix of strong young arms and proven vets in their rotation for 2007.
RHP-Jake Peavy(25): After posting an E.R.A. of under three in 2004-05,
Peavy wasn't quite as effective in 2006 with a 4.09 E.R.A. Still, he is
a dominant number one for the Padres to build around in the years to
come.
RHP-Chris Young(27): Young had an outstanding first season in San Diego
with a 3.46 E.R.A. in 2006. A nice number two to compliment Peavy.
RHP-Greg Maddux(41): After posting an E.R.A. of over four in two and a
half seasons with the Cubs, Maddux came to life in 12 starts for the
Dodgers by posting a 3.36 E.R.A. He should be able to thrive in his
starts at Petco Park this season.
RHP-Clay Hensley(27): A quality young arm at the back of the rotation,
Hensley has a fine career E.R.A. of 3.30 in two big league campaigns.
LHP-David Wells(43): Wells helped San Diego down the stretch last year
with a 3.49 in five starts after coming over from Boston. He was
effective in his prior stint with the Padres in 2004 with a 3.73
E.R.A.
Overall rotation outlook: The Padres are well suited for another
playoff run with this deep rotation. Peavy and Young form an
outstanding duo at the top of this staff. Even past the age of 40,
Maddux and Wells are still able to work effectively. San Diego will
have one of the top 3 NL starting staffs in 2007.
Bullpen-The Padres have a good bullpen to support the starting arms.
Setup relief-RHP Scott Linebrink(30) has been one of the better NL
setup relievers in recent seasons. RHP Cla Meredith(23) was untouchable
in 2006. He posted a 1.07 E.R.A. and allowed only 30 hits in 50.2
innings of work. RHP Scott Cassidy(31) is another quality bullpen arm
as he posted a 2.53 E.R.A. last season.
Closer-RHP Trevor Hoffman(39): Hoffman shows no signs of slowing down
after posting his third straight season of more than 40 saves in 2006.
He only needs 18 saves this year to reach the 500 mark in his career.
Overall pitching outlook: The Padres easily allowed the fewest runs in
the NL in 2006. The 2007 season should result in some similar results.
San Diego has plenty of quality arms in the starting staff as well in
the bullpen. The overall staff has an ideal mix of strong young arms
and proven veterans who still have something left in the tank. The
Padres are poised to have the NL's best pitching unit again in
2007.
Final recap and recommendation: The Padres have learned how to win with
consecutive playoff appearances heading into the 2007 campaign. While a
third straight playoff trip might be out of reach, San Diego will
deliver another winning season this year. Even with an offense that
won't overpower too many foes in 2007, the Padres won't have to score
too much behind the league's best pitching staff. The arms will carry
San Diego to more wins than losses this season as the Padres win at
least 84 contests in 2007.
This
is the 28th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
Washington Nationals-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 68 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-67
2005-83
2004-83
3-year average: 78
Lineup-Without Alphonso Soriano this season, the Nationals offense will likely have some struggles. Here's a look:
C-Brian Schneider(30): Schneider has never had more than 55 RBI's in his four seasons as the Nationals regular catcher.
1B-Nick Johnson(28): Johnson is still recovering from a broken leg
and will likely not be able to play until at least June. A huge blow
for Washington as Johnson had 23 HR's, 110 walks, and 100 runs scored
in 2006. Veteran Dmitri Young will man 1st until Johnson returns.
2B-Felipe Lopez(26): Lopez has become an offesnive factor with 195
runs scored over the last two seasons. However, after hitting 23 HR's
with 85 RBI's in 2005, Lopez had a huge drop in power production in
2006 with just 11 HR's and 52 RBI's.
SS-Cristian Guzman(29): Guzman will try to return to the form he
showed early in his career in Minnesota after missing the entire 2006
season and hitting only .219 in his first year with the Nationals in
2005.
3B-Ryan Zimmerman(22): A player that Washington can build around in
the years to come. Zimmerman had 110 RBI's as a rookie in 2006.
LF-Ryan Church(28): Church will likely be a platoon player in 2007.
He has shown a little pop in three seasons with 20 HR's in 527
at-bats.
CF-Nook Logan(27): The speedy Logan will hope to bring a spark to
the Nationals lineup in 2007. He had 23 steals for the Tigers in 2005.
RF-Austin Kearns(26): After putting up some big numbers in the first
half of last year with the Reds, Kearns had a drop in production with
the Nationals. Despite high expectations, Kearns never fulfilled his
promise in Cincinnati but he is still just 26.
Overall lineup outlook(2 right-handed batters, 3 left-handed batter,
and 3 switch-hitters): The Nationals were 10th in the NL in runs scored
in 2006. Without Soriano and with Johnson on the shelf for awhile,
Washington will have some trouble putting together any consistent
offense in 2007. Zimmerman and Kearns are the only locks to hit at
least 15+ HR's in this lineup. The non-power hitters don't get on base
enough to have any real impact on this offense. Washington falls to the
very bottom of NL offenses in 2007.
Starting rotation-The weak offense likely won't get much support from a suspect starting pitching staff.
RHP-John Patterson(29): After a big year in 2005(3.13 E.R.A.), Patterson was limited to eight starts in 2006 due to injury.
RHP-Shwan Hill(25): Hill posted an E.R.A. of 4.66 in six starts for the Nationals last season.
LHP-Matt Chico(23): His first pitch of 2007 will be the first of his
big league career as Chico is thrown into the fire in the Nationals
rotation.
RHP-Jason Bergmann(25): Another untested Nats starter, Bergmann has
only made seven starts in two big league seasons with a career E.R.A.
of near six.
RHP-Jerome Williams(25): Williams, a former top prospect for the
Giants, made only two major league starts in 2006. He does have a
respectable 4.03 career E.R.A. but his stock has dropped considerably
since his early promise with the Giants.
Overall rotation outlook: The projected starters combined to make
only 22 starts last season. The pitching for outlook is pretty bleak.
Patterson is the only pitcher likely to produce for Washington and even
he is a slight question mark after last season's injury. The struggles
of the starters will eventaully wear down th bullpen as the season
progresses. Look for Washington to have the NL's worst starting staff
in 2007.
Bullpen-The pen will likely get plenty of innings in 2007.
Setup relief-RHP Jon Rauch(28) was a workhorse in 2006 with a 3.35
E.R.A. in 85 appearances. RHP Ryan Wagner(24) has great potential as a
late-inning reliever after showing some promise as a former top
prospect with the Reds. Veteran LHP Ray King(33) will be a key
specialist in 2007.
Closer-RHP Chad Cordero(25) has developed into one of the NL's best closers with 76 saves over the last two seasons.
Overall pitching outlook: The Nationals gave up the most runs of any
NL team in 2006. The 2007 season should result in a repeat performance.
While a full season from Patterson will help, there are too many
unproven arms in the rest of the rotation. The bullpen is decent but
Cordero will be unlikley to get too many save opportunities this
season. Look for Washington to have another long season of pitching
woes in 2007.
Final recap and recommendation: There is little left from the
Nationals teams that won 83 games in the 2004 and 2005 seasons. While
the Expos/Nationals organization has traditionally produced a vast
amount of talent, the current roster is lacking in prospects. zimmerman
is the only impact player in the lineup that the organization has
produced. Until the farm system has a resurgence, the Nats are facing
some difficult times. The 2007 Nationals face little chance of
improving from last year's 67-win campaign. It is more likely than not
that this Washington team will lose 100+ games in 2007 as this
rebuilding process will face some rough times this season.
This
is the 27th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
Toronto Blue Jays-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 86 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-87
2005-80
2004-67
3-year average: 78
Lineup-Frank Thomas is the big addition to this year's lineup. Here's a look:
C-Greg Zaun(35): The veteran doesn't have a high average or much
power. However, he has been productive for Toronto with an on-base
average of over .360 in his three seasons for the Blue Jays.
1B-Lyle Overbay(30): Overbay had a career-year in his first season
in Toronto last year with personal highs in HR's, RBI's, and batting
average.
2B-Aaron Hill(25): Hill hit a solid .291 in 2006 for the Blue Jays.
SS-Royce Clayton(37): Clayton will be playing for the 10th different
team in his career as he joins Toronto in 2007. He will be counted on
for defense more than offense with the Blue Jays.
3B-Troy Glaus(30): Glaus pounded 38 HR's in his first season in Toronto in 2006.
LF-Reed Johnson(30): Johnson proved to be a valuable line-drive bat
for the Blue Jays last year with a .319 average and 34 doubles.
CF-Vernon Wells(28): Wells has outstanding power for a center-fielder as he has averaged 28 HR's over the last five seasons.
RF-Alex Rios(25): Another great young talent for Toronto, Rios drove in 82 runs in 2006 despite missing 34 games.
DH-Frank Thomas(38): After playing in a total of just 108 games in
the previous two years, Thomas had a comeback season in Oakland in 2006
with 39 HR's and 114 RBI's.
Overall lineup outlook(7 right-handed batters, 1 left-handed batter,
and 1 switch-hitter): The Blue Jays were 7th in the AL in runs scored
and 4th in homers in 2006. This offense should be able to improve a
notch or two in 2007. Toronto has five hitters that are likely to drive
in 90+ runs in 2007. The Blue Jays also display excellent patience at
the plate with several batters in the lineup that draw a good number of
walks. The combination of the walks and the HR power makes this Toronto
offense capable of doing quick damage in a game. Look for the Blue Jays
to be a top 5 AL offense in 2007.
Starting rotation-Toronto may not have enough starting pitching to make a playoff run in 2007.
RHP-Roy Halladay(29): After some injuries limited him to only 40
starts in 2004-05, Halladay rebounded to make 32 starts last season. He
has become the AL's top right-handed starter in the last five years
with a dazzling 77-31 record.
RHP-A.J. Burnett(30): Despite some outstanding stuff, Burnett is
only one game above .500 in his career. Constant injuries have limited
Burnett as he has only had one season with at least 30 starts. With a
lot of questions at the back of this rotation, the Blue Jays will need
a full season from him to contend in 2007.
LHP-Gustavo Chacin(26): After a strong 2005 (3.72 E.R.A.), Chacin
was slowed by some injuries in 2006. He struggled to an E.R.A. of over
five in 17 starts and allowed a whopping 19 HR's in just 87.1 innings
of work.
RHP-Tomo Ohka(31): Like Burnett, Ohka has had trouble staying
healthy for an entire season at times. He has been limited to fewer
than 20 starts in two of the last three years.
RHP-Josh Towers(30): Towers has been inconsistent in his four
seasons with the Blue Jays. He won a spot in this rotation in the
spring despite posting an E.R.A. of 8.42 last season in 15 appearances.
Overall rotation outlook: The Blue Jays have a fragile group of
starting arms as all five projected starters have had some some injury
problems in recent years. In addition, the loss of Ted Lilly will
clearly be felt. If healthy, Burnett and Chacin should be quality No.
2's and 3's behind Halladay. However, the four and five spots could be
major problem areas for this club. Veterans Victor Zambrano and John
Thompson do give the Blue Jays some options if Ohka and Towers falter.
Even with Halladay, this Blue Jays starting staff will likely be in the
middle of the pack of AL rotations in 2007.
Bullpen-The Blue Jays have some depth issues in this year's pen.
Setup relief-LHP Scott Downs(31) is the top lefty out of the Toronto
pen. LHP Brian Tallet(29) is another quality lefty arm for the Jays.
RHP Brandon League(24) will get more work in 2007 after posting a 2.53
E.R.A. in 2006.
Closer-LHP B.J. Ryan(31) was nasty as Toronto's closer in 2006 as he
allowed only 42 hits in 72.1 innings of pitching while posting a 1.37
E.R.A.
Overall pitching outlook: The Blue Jays were 5th in the AL in runs
allowed in 2006. The loss of Lilly and top setup reliever Justin Speier
will hurt Toronto in 2007. However, Toronto should be able to get more
from Burnett and Chacin in 2007 after duo combined to make only 38
starts last season. The Blue Jays could be a very serious playoff
contender if Burnett and Chacin can make 60+ starts to support
Halladay. However, the questionable 4th and 5th starters, along with a
bullpen that won't be as good without Speier, will likely drop the
overall Toronto pitching back to a middle of the road AL pitching
unit.
Final recap and recommendation: In seven of the last nine seasons,
Toronto has won between 80 to 88 games. This has left Toronto just a
little short of being a playoff team. While the Blue Jays have asembled
a team that has some great potential, there are still enough question
marks to leave this club out of the post-season again in 2007. However,
Toronto will still be a difficult squad to face this season. The
thunder in the everyday lineup will do some damage while Halladay and
Ryan continue to be one of the better starter/closer duos in baseball.
The Blue Jays have enough to at least match last season's win total of
87 in 2007.
This
is the 26th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
Texas Rangers-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 80 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-80
2005-79
2004-89
3-year average: 82
Lineup-The Rangers have one baseball's best offensive infields. Here's a look:
C-Gerald Laird(27): Although Laird hit .296 in 78 games last year, he
doesn't figure to add much to the Texas offense as an everyday catcher.
He only has 10 career HR's in 159 games.
1B-Mark Teixeira(27): Teixeira heated up with 24 HR's after the
All-Star break after hitting only 9 HR's in the first half of 2006. He
has averaged 38 HR's with 122 RBI's over the last three years.
2B-Ian Kinsler(24): Kinsler had a solid rookie campaign in 2006 with a .286 average and 14 HR's in 120 games.
SS-Michael Young(30): Young hit over the .300 mark for the fourth
straight season in 2006. He had 52 doubles and drove in 103 runs last
year.
3B-Hank Blalock(26): After averaging 29 HR's with 97 RBI's from
2003-05, Blalock slipped a bit in 2006 with 16 HR's and 89 RBI's.
LF-Brad Wilkerson(29): Wilkerson was a disappointment in his first
season in Texas with a .222 average. The Rangers are hoping that he can
return to his 2004 form when he pounded 32 homers for the Expos.
CF-Kenny Lofton(39): Lofton has had a resurgence in the last couple of
seasons as he has hit over .300 in each campaign. He will platoon in
center as Lofton will sit out against left-handed hurlers.
RF-Nelson Cruz(26): The youngster will get more of a look in 2007 after only hitting .223 in 41 games last year.
DH-Frank Catalanotto(32): Catalanatto has been a solid line drive
hitter in his career with a .297 average. He will platoon with Sammy
Sosa at DH in 2007.
Overall lineup outlook(4 right-handed batters, 4 left-handed batters,
and 1 switch-hitter): The Rangers were 4th in the AL in runs scored in
2006. This lineup will likely drop back a notch or two in 2007. Texas
lost Carlos Lee and Gary Matthews to free agency. While the infield,
especially Teixeira and Young, is very solid, the rest of the batting
order is pretty average. Home run power could be a minor issue for this
team as Teixeria is the only player in this lineup who hit at least 20
HR's in 2006. Still, the Rangers have enough quality line drive and
doubles hitters to remain in the top half of AL offenses in 2007.
Starting rotation-The Rangers have some question marks beyond their top two starters.
RHP-Vicente Padilla(29): Padilla gave the Rangers a quality first
season with 15 wins in 2006. However, he hasn't had an E.R.A. below
4.50 since 2003.
RHP-Kevin Millwood(32): Millwood's numbers were similar to Padilla's in
2006 as the veteran won 16 games. Like Padilla, his E.R.A. (4.52 in
2006) is a little high for a No. 1-2 starter.
RHP-Robinson Tejada(25): The hard throwing youngster is still trying to
harness his stuff. Tejada, due to his control problems, has been a
5-inning pitcher in his career because of high pitch counts. However,
he does have some nice potential.
RHP-Brandon McCarthy(23): McCarthy displayed a lot of promise in two
seasons with the White Sox. However, he isn't in a great environment
for a young pitcher with half of his starts set to come in one of the
more lively big league ball parks in Arlington.
RHP-Jamey Wright(32): Wright's inclusion in the rotation can't exactly
be viewed as a promising sign for the 2007 Texas season. The ultimate
journeyman hurler has a career record of 67-98 with an E.R.A. of over
five.
Overall rotation outlook: The Rangers will have to closely monitor the
back half of this rotation in 2007. Tejada and McCarthy have never been
starting pitchers for an entire season. Will they be able to hold up
over 30 starts in the Texas heat? The fifth spot will likely be a
revolving door as Wright is a long shot to stay in this rotation over
an entire campaign. While Padilla and Millwood will keep Texas in a lot
of games, they aren't a dominant 1-2 combo compared to a lot of other
AL staffs. The Rangers rotation will likely be in the lower half of AL
staffs in 2007.
Bullpen-Eric Gagne will try to overcome some recent injuries as the new Rangers closer.
Setup relief-RHP Akinori Otsuka(35) was outstanding as the Texas closer
in 2006 with 32 saves and an E.R.A. of just over two. If things go
according to plans, he will be the 8th inning guy in 2007 before Gagne
comes in for the 9th. LHP Ron Mahay(35) will be the key lefty
specialist in 2007. Youngster LHP Scott Feldman(24) will get some more
chances in 2007 after a solid campaign in 2006.
Closer-RHP Eric Gagne(31): Gagne will be activated in mid-April. It's
been a long road back for Gagne as he has only pitched 15.1 innings
over the last two years. For three years, he was as dominant as any
closer in the history of baseball with 152 saves in 158 chances from
2002-04.
Overall pitching outlook: The Rangers were 8th in the AL in runs
allowed in 2006. Texas will be hard pressed to repeat this ranking in
2007. Starting spots 3-5 are questionable. Also, these starters are
unlikely to pitch deep into most games. The Otsuka-Gagne combo won't
get as nearly as many opportunities as the Shields-Rodriguez duo in
this division with the Angels. Otsuka and Gagne can only have a major
impact if they get to pitch with a lead. The rest of the Rangers staff
will have some difficulties accomplishing this in innings 1-7. Look for
the Rangers to drop back a notch or two in the AL runs allowed category
in 2007.
Final recap and recommendation: Since closing out the 90's with three
playoff appearances in a four-year span, Texas has managed to produce
only one winning season in this decade. The inability of this franchise
to develop big league arms has led to its' downfall in recent years.
While the A's and Angels are constantly producing top flight pitchers
in their farm system from the AL West, the Rangers are not. All of the
Texas projected starting pitchers and top bullpen arms for 2007 have
come from outside the Rangers organization. Even with a dynamic infield
of solid young players, the Rangers do not have enough in other areas
to win. While Showalter has been knocked by some critics as a manager,
he got a lot out of this team in the last three years. It would be
surprising if new manager Ron Washington will be able to be an
improvement compared to Showalter. Until the Rangers system starts
producing some pitching talent, Texas will continue to have losing
seasons.
This
is the 25th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 67 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-61
2005-67
2004-70
3-year average: 66
Lineup-The Devil Rays have some promising youngsters in their lineup. Here's a look:
C-Dioner Navarro(23): Navarro is still adjusting to big league pitching with a .264 average in 451 career at-bats.
1B-TY Wiggington(29): After putting up some average offensive numbers
in the NL with the Mets and Pirates, Wiggington had a fine year in
Tampa last season with 24 HR's and 79 RBI's despite missing 40 games.
He makes the move from third to first in 2007.
2B-Jorge Cantu(25): Cantu was slowed by injuries in 2006 after he drove
in 117 runs in 2005. Still, he was productive with 62 RBI's in 107
games last year.
SS-Ben Zobrist(25): Zobrist will need to produce to hold off top
prospect B.J. Upton as the starting shortstop in 2007. Neither Zobrist
or Upton did any damage at the plate in limited action last year but
Upton is poised to eventually get the everyday job in Tampa.
3B-Akinori Iwamura(28): Iwamura hit 106 homers in his last three seasons in the Japanese league.
LF-Carl Crawford(25): Crawford hit a career-best .305 in 2006. He has
increased his HR total in each of his five big league campaigns.
CF-Rocco Baldelli(25): Baldelli made the long journey back to the field
in 2006 after missing the entire 2005 season. He gave the D-Rays a lift
by hitting .302 in 92 games with 57 RBI's. Baldelli could be poised for
a huge 2007 after hitting 9 HR's last September.
R####elmon Young(21): Another top D-Rays prospect, Young hit .317 in 30 games as a rookie in 2006.
DH-Johnny Gomes(26): Gomes hit only .216 in 2006 after hitting .282 in
2005. He has displayed some nice power with 41 homers in his career in
only 762 at-bats.
Overall lineup outlook(5 right-handed batters, 2 left-handed batters,
and 2 switch-hitters): The D-Rays were a distant last in the AL in runs
scored in 2006. Tampa could be poised for some huge offensive
improvement in 2007. Baldelli, Cantu, and Wiggington missed a combined
165 games last season. This trio was very productive when healthy in
2006. Also, Iwamura and Young will be significant new contributors in
this year's lineup. There is some nice pop in the order as seven of the
nine bats have the potential to hit 20+ HR's in 2007. While this young
group will likely run hot and cold at times this season, the Tampa
offense has gained some valuable experience in recent seasons. The
Devil Rays will score a lot more runs in 2007 as this crew will do some
surprising damage to some opposing AL pitching staffs this season.
Starting rotation-The D-Rays have a shaky starting staff in 2007.
LHP-Scott Kazmir(23): The D-Rays made one of the great deals in recent
memory when they picked up Kazmir from the Mets in 2004. Kazmir has
been the lone bright spot in the Tampa rotation in the last two years
with E.R.A's of 3.77 and 3.24. A solid number one for Tampa to build
around in the years to come.
RHP-James Shields(25): As a rookie in 2006, Shields was solid at home
(3.94 E.R.A.) but suspect on the road (5.65 E.R.A.). He should make
some progress in 2007 as Shields did record 104 strikeouts in 125.2
innings of work last year.
LHP-Casey Fossum(29): Control problems have kept Fossum from
progressing as a big league starter. He only averaged 5.1 innings per
start in 2006. With a 5.20 career E.R.A., Fossum isn't a lock to stay
in this rotation throughout the 2007 season.
RHP-Jae Seo(29): Seo seemed like a pitcher on the rise after posting a
2.59 E.R.A. with the Mets in 2005 in 14 starts. 2006 was a major
reversal for him as he struggled to a 5.33 E.R.A. with the Dodgers and
D-Rays. If he can pitch closer to his 2005 form this season, this staff
could make some strides.
RHP-Tim Corcoran(28): Corcoran posted a 4.41 E.R.A. in 16 starts for
Tampa last season. He will need to harness his control in 2007 after
issuing 48 walks in just 90.2 innings of work in 2006.
Overall rotation outlook: While the Tampa organization has been able to
assemble some quality hitting prospects, the Devil Rays continue to
suffer in the arms department. Beyond Kazmir, this rotation is razor
thin. While pitchers like Shields and Seo have the potential to pitch
better this season, these hurlers aren't likely to be able to provide
much help to Kazmir in this rotation. The starting problems eventually
lead to a worn down bullpen as well. The one positive for the pitching
lies in the improved offense as this will take some of the pressure off
of the starting hurlers in 2007. However, the D-Rays will join the
Royals at the bottom of the AL starting pitching staffs in 2007.
Bullpen-The Devil Rays pitching woes are also felt in the pen.
Setup relief-RHP Rudy Lugo(26) allowed only 75 hits in 85 innings of
work last year. RHP Shawn Camp(31) was durable for the D-Rays with 75
appearances in 2006. He will look to improve in 2007 after allowing 93
hits in 75 innings last season. As a small-market club, the D-Rays
aren't able to address their setup and middle relief adequately. The
rest of the bullpen roles will have to be defined as the season
progresses as a number of young hurlers try to gain innings out of the
pen in 2007.
Closer-RHP Seth McClung(26): After struggling as a starter in 2006,
McClung fared better later in the season in the bullpen with six saves
in seven opportunities. Control is a concern for McClung after he
issued 68 walks in 103 innings last season.
Overall pitching outlook: Only Baltimore and Kansas City gave up more
runs in the AL last season than Tampa. With the overall staff being
virtually unchanged from a year ago, the Devil Rays will struggle in
the pitching department again in 2007. Beyond Kazmir, there really
isn't much upside to this staff. The biggest downfall of the Tampa
organization has been its' inability to develop arms in their farm
system. Until this issue is resolved, the Devil Rays will continue to
reside at the bottom of the AL East standings. Tampa will challenge for
the worst AL pitching staff again in 2007.
Final recap and recommendation: The Devil Rays have been consistent
losers in their nine years as a major league team. In each season,
Tampa Bay has lost more than 90 games. After nine long years, the Devil
Rays are finally taking some small steps towards being a club that can
soon avoid the 90-loss seasons. The everyday lineup has tremendous
potential. However, the small market D-Rays may not be willing to pay
the tab to keep players like Crawford and Baldelli on a long term
basis. Still, for 2007, this lineup should be able to deliver some
meaningful progress. While the pitching is suspect, the D-Rays will
have Kazmir to turn to every 5th day. The pitching will likely keep the
D-Rays in last place again in 2007. However, there is enough young
thunder in the everyday lineup to enable Tampa Bay to win at least 68
games this season.
This
is the 24th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
Seattle Mariners-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 77 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-78
2005-69
2004-63
3-year average: 70
Lineup-The Mariners hope to improve on last year's mediocre production in 2007. Here's a look:
C-Kenji Johjima(30): Johjima delivered some quality offensive
production at the catching position in 2006 with 76 RBI's and a .291
average.
1B-Richie Sexson(32): Sexson could be poised for a huge campaign in
2007 after hitting .322 after last season's All-Star break. His first
half slump (.218 average), along with Adrian Beltre's poor first half,
doomed the Mariners in 2006. Sexson has been a steady power bat with
six career 100+ RBI seasons.
2B-Jose Lopez(23): The youngster had 58 RBI's prior to the All-Star
break last season but Lopez only drove in 21 in the second half of the
year. He should be more consistent in 2007.
SS-Yuniesky Betancourt(25): A nice compliment to Lopez, Betancourt hit
a solid .289 in 2006. He needs to develop some better plate discipline
as Betancourt had only 17 walks in 558 at-bats last year.
3B-Adrian Beltre(28): Beltre finally showed some signs of living up to his big contract in 2006. After hitting only two
homers with 16 RBI's in the first two months of the season, Beltre
pounded 23 HR's with 73 RBI's in the final four months of 2006.
LF-Raul Ibanez(34): Ibanez had a career-year in 2006 with 33 HR's and 123 RBI's.
CF-Ichiro Suzuki(33): Suzuki produced his sixth straight year with at
least 200 hits and 100 runs scored in 2006. He makes the transition to
center field in 2007.
RF-Jose Guillen(30): Guillen will be playing for his 8th team in the
last 9 years in 2007. The controversial player averaged 27 HR's with 89
RBI's from 2003-05. Guillen could be poised for a bounce back season in
2007 after missing 93 games last year.
DH-Jose Vidro(32): After hitting over .300 in five consecutive years
from 1999-2003, Vidro has been slowed by injuries over the last three
years. He has missed the basic equivalant of a full season with 163
games missed since 2004.
Overall lineup outlook(6 right-handed batters, 2 left-handed batters,
and 1 switch-hitter): Only Tampa Bay scored fewer runs in the AL in
2006 than Seattle. The numbers seem a bit odd for a team with four
(Sexson, Beltre, Ibanez, and Suzuki) impact bats in the lineup. 2007
should produce some better results. Sexson and Beltre came on after
slow starts in 2006. The additions of Guillen and Vidro will provide
some more depth to this lineup. The main problem for Seattle in 2006
was their inability to draw walks. This problem will likely come into
play in 2007 at times as the Mariners have a lineup of free swingers.
However, youngsters like Lopez and Betancourt should improve in this
area with more experience. Seattle has assembled a quality 1-9 everyday
lineup that is poised for more production in 2007. The Mariners have
enough impact hitters and promising youngsters to move up to a middle
of the pack AL offense in 2007.
Starting rotation-The Mariners have a decent if not outstanding staff of starters for 2007.
LHP-Jarrod Washburn(32): The lefty had a disappointing first season in
Seattle with an E.R.A. of over 4 1/2 after posting a strong 3.20 E.R.A.
in his last season with the Angels. Washburn struggled mightily on the
road in 2006 with an E.R.A. of nearly six.
RHP-Felix Hernandez(21): One of baseball's most highly-touted young
arms had some growing pains in 2006 after showing some brilliance in 12
starts as a rookie in 2005. Like Washburn, Hernandez was strong at home
but weak on the road in 2006 with an away E.R.A. of 5.47. There is
still plenty of optimism in Seattle for this 21 year-old hurler.
RHP-Jeff Weaver(30): Weaver's stock went up after a big post-season for
the Cardinals last year. However, Weaver has been inconsistent in his
big league career. He was very solid with the Tigers and Dodgers while
flopping in stops with the Yankees and Angels. Pitching friendly Safeco
Park should be a good fit for Weaver's style of pitching.
RHP-Miguel Batista(36): Batitsta has struggled with some control issues
in his last two seasons as a starting pitcher. Like Weaver, Batista
should benefit from pitching half of his games in Seattle after hurling
in hitting parks with Arizona and Toronto.
LHP-Horacio Ramirez(27): Since a 12-4 rookie campaign in 2003, Ramirez
has been slowed by injuries. He only made 9 starts in 2004 and was
limited to 14 appearances last season. Ramirez has the potential to be
above average as a back of the rotation guy in 2007.
Overall rotation outlook: The 4.48 E.R.A. of Ramirez was the lowest in
2006 for the five projected starters. While this is a cause for
concern, this staff is poised for some better results in 2007. Washburn
should be able to make some adjustments to fare better on the road in
2007. Hernandez will be a dominant number one sooner rather than later.
The three newcomers have decent track records. While Hernandez is still
developing into an elite hurler, this staff will lack a top flight
number one starter in 2007. However, the depth of this rotation is
above average as Weaver, Batista, and Ramirez will be able to keep the
Mariners in most games at the back end of the rotation. The Mariners
will have a solid if not great starting staff in 2007.
Bullpen-The Mariners have some issues to settle this spring in their
pen after dealing top setup hurler Rafael Soriano in the off-season.
Setup relief-RHP Chris Reitsma(29) should fare better in a setup role
after some struggles as a closer in Atlanta. LHP George Sherrill(29)
was a quality specialist for Seattle in 2006. RHP Julio Mateo(29)
picked up nine wins out of the pen last season. RHP Jon Huber(25)
showed some promise as a rookie in 2006 with an E.R.A. of just over one
in 16 appearances.
Closer-RHP J.J. Putz(30): Putz displayed some electric stuff after
moving into the closer's role early last year for Eddie Guardado. He
allowed only 59 hits in 78.1 innings of work with 104 punch outs in
2006.
Overall pitching outlook: The Mariners finished 9th in the AL in runs
allowed in 2006. This staff should be able to improve by a notch or two
in 2007. The rotation has solid depth while the bullpen is still a
quality group although Soriano's loss will be felt. Putz is developing
into a top flight closer for the Mariners. Seattle will need to pitch
better away from home this season. The inconsistency from home to road
left Seattle with only 34 away wins a year ago. The Mariners come
through with an improved pitching squad in 2007.
Final recap and recommendation: In the first half of this decade
(2000-03), the Mariners averaged 98 wins per season. Seattle suffered a
quick and drastic fall in 2004 with a 99-loss season. The Mariners got
old in a hurry. Suzuki is the only player left from the winning run.
The climb back to respectability has been gradual. In 2005, the
Mariners won 69 games. Last season, the squad won 78 games. In 2007,
the Seattle rebuilding process will be ready to take the next step. A
winning season. The Mariners have a solid group of veteran bats in
their everyday lineup. With these players being in their late 20's or
early 30's, Seattle will score more runs in 2007. The pitching is solid
and it could be very good if Washburn bounces back. Hernandez could
make some strides towards becoming a number one in 2007. The
improvement continues for Seattle in 2007 as the Mariners post a
winning season.
This
is the 23rd of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
St. Louis Cardinals-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 84 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-83
2005-100
2004-105
3-year average: 96
Lineup-Superstar Albert Pujols is the driving force for the Redbirds offense. Here's a look:
C-Yadier Molina(24): Molina struggled at the plate in 2006 with a .216
average. He does make solid contact as Molina had only 41 strikeouts in
over 400 at-bats last season.
1B-Albert Pujols(27): Pujols had career-highs in HR's and RBI's in 2006
despite missing 19 games. No star player has been more consistent than
Pujols. He has averaged 42 HR's with 126 RBI's while hitting .332 in
his first six big league seasons.
2B-Adam Kennedy(31): Kennedy is a solid .280 career hitter. He should be a nice fit in the St. Louis lineup.
SS-David Eckstein(32): The World Series MVP had a down regular season
in 2006 after missing 39 games. He brings great intangibles to a team
that goes beyond his numbers. Eckstein has scored at least 90 runs in
three of the last five seasons.
3B-Scott Rolen(32): After hitting .331 in the first half of last
season, Rolen slumped to .253 after the All-Star break. If fully
healthy, Rolen is a quality bat to compliment Pujols. Rolen has driven
in more than 100 runs five times in his career.
LF-Chris Duncan(26): Duncan gave the Cards a lift with 19 home runs
after the All-Star break last season. He will be in a platoon in the
outfield with veteran right-handed bat Preston Wilson.
CF-Jim Edmonds(36): Edmonds is rounding into form this spring after
some off-season surgery. He was still productive in 2006 with 70 RBI's
in just 110 games.
RF-Juan Encarnacion(31): Encarnacion has never put up huge numbers in
his career but he is a productive bat. He drove in 79 runs for the
Cards last season.
Overall lineup outlook(6 right-handed batters and 2 left-handed
batters): The Cardinals were 6th in the NL in runs scored in 2006.
Injuries slowed this attack last season as Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, and
Eckstein combined to miss 130 games. With this foursome likely to be
more healthy in 2007, this offense should be more consistent this
season. Kennedy's addition will also provide a nice boost. Pujols can
carry this team for long stretches even if the other hitters aren't
doing too much. Look for St. Louis to move up to the top five in NL
offenses in 2007.
Starting rotation-The Cardinals have a lot of question marks in their rotation heading into this season.
RHP-Chris Carpenter(31): Carpenter is a sparkling 51-18 in his three
seasons in St. Louis. He has been very durable with 12 complete games
and 7 shutouts over the last two years. A top flight No. 1 starter.
RHP-Kip Wells(29): Wells has struggled since posting a strong 3.28
E.R.A. in 2003 with the Pirates. He only made nine starts in 2006.
Wells could be poised for a resurgence as he gets to join a winning
organization in 2007.
RHP-Anthony Reyes(25): Reyes struggled with an E.R.A. of nearly six in
11 starts after the All-Star break last season. He allowed an alarming
17 HR's in 85.1 innings of work in 2006.
RHP-Adam Wainwright(26): Wainwright jumps into the rotation after being
a bullpen star in last year's post-season. He clearly has the stuff to
be an impact hurler but the transition from reliever to starter could
make this season a challenging one for Wainwright.
RHP-Braden Looper(32): Another former closer who will try to get it
done in a starting role. Looper may have a more difficult time than
Wainwright in the transition as Looper has been a big league reliever
for nine seasons.
Overall rotation outlook: The Cardinals certainly have some questions
behind Carpenter in the rotation. St. Louis will get lefty Mark Mulder
back after the All-Star break to join this group. Manager Tony Larussa
will have to very creative in managing spots 2-5 in the rotation. These
starters will have trouble going deep into a good portion of their
efforts this year. This will provide an even greater emphasis on the
bullpen. Still, Carpenter will offset this by eating up a lot of
innings in his starts. While St. Louis will not have one of the better
NL rotations in 2007, there is still enough in this staff to keep the
Cards in playoff contention this season.
Bullpen-The Cardinals will need their bullpen to come through to aid a questionable starting staff in 2007.
Setup relief-RHP Russ Springer(38) had a fine year in Houston last
season with an E.R.A. of 3.47. RHP Brad Thompson(25) will play a bigger
role in 2007 after posting a solid 3.34 E.R.A. in 2006. RHP Josh
Hancock(29) can work more than one inning after logging 77 innings in
2006.
Closer-RHP Jason Isringhausen(34): After four outstanding years for the
Cardinals, Isringhausen had a down year in 2006. He blew 10 saves and
allowed a whopping 10 HR's in over 58 innings of work last season.
Overall pitching outlook: St. Louis allowed the 6th fewest amount of
runs in the NL last seasons. The staff is aided by an outstanding
defense. The Cardinals allowed the fewest amount of unearned runs in
the league last season with 41. While St. Louis doesn't have an
exceptional staff, Larussa will get the most out of this unit.
Wainwright has the potential to be a No.2 starter behind Carpenter
while Wells has had prior success. The Cardinals have lost some depth
in their pen but St. Louis has been able to be resilient with their
arms over the years. St. Louis will likely slip a notch or two in the
NL rankings in 2007 as this staff will do just enough to keep the Cards
competitive in 2007.
Final recap and recommendation: The Cardinals had an unusual regular
season in 2006 as St. Louis had three losing streaks of seven games or
more. These skids were clearly more of an exception than the norm for
one of baseball's most consistent and successful teams in this decade.
In the last seven seasons, the Cardinals have averaged 94 wins per
season. After suffering their last down regular season (85 wins) in
2003, the Cards responded to win 105 games in 2004. While St. Louis
doesn't have a 100-win caliber group for 2007, there is still enough on
this club to have a better regular campaign this year. The
hitting-pitching combo of Pujols-Carpenter can't be equaled by any NL
team. These two stars will carry St. Louis a long way again in 2007.
The winning culture in St. Louis has been elevated after the Cards
finally cashed in to win a championship after so many near misses. St.
Louis will defend their title in a solid fashion in 2007 with at least
85 victories.
This
is the 22nd of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
Pittsburgh Pirates-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 70 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-67
2005-67
2004-72
3-year average: 69
Lineup-Young star Jason Bay is the top bat for Pittsburgh's lineup. Here's a look:
C-Ronny Paulino(25): Paulino hit .310 for the Buccs as a rookie in
2006. Pittsburgh is hoping that he will improve on his power production
(6 HR's on 2006) in 2007.
1B-Adam Laroche(27): Laroche gives the Pirates the left-handed power
bat to compliment Bay. Laroche pounded 32 HR's in Atlanta last season.
2B-Freddy Sanchez(29): Sanchez was the surprise NL batting champ in
2006 after hitting .344. He was more than a singles hitter with 53
doubles and 85 RBI's for the Pirates.
SS-Jack Wilson(29): Since hitting .308 in 2004, Wilson has a been a
disappointment. He only had 35 RBI's in over 500 at-bats last season.
3B-Jose Bautista(26): Bautista showed some pop with 16 HR's in 2006 in
117 games. However, he must hit for a higher average (.235 in 2006) and
make more contact (110 K's in 2006) in 2007.
LF-Jason Bay(28): Bay has established himself as an elite power bat
after hitting more than 30 HR's with more than 100 RBI's for the 2nd
consecutive year in 2006. He will have some needed protection with
Laroche on board for 2007.
CF-Chris Duffy(26): Duffy will try to deliver some offense in 2007
after not showing much in 2006. He did steal 26 bases in just 84 games
last season.
RF-Xavier Nady(28): Nady hasn't been able to make an impact in his
young career so far. He has never played in more than 130 games in any
season. Nady did have a career-high 17 HR's last season.
Overall lineup outlook(6 right-handed batters and 2 left-handed
batters): The Pirates were last in the NL in runs scored and homers in
2006. Pittsburgh will be hard pressed to make any significant offensive
improvements in 2007. While Laroche will provide a lift, the overall
lineup is still pretty suspect. Wilson, Bautista, Duffy, and Nady are
not impact bats. Paulino and Sanchez are high average hitters but are
lacking in power. The Pirates will need to do the little things, like
advancing runners, to get the most out of their offense this season.
Pittsburgh will be near the bottom in runs scored again in 2007.
Starting rotation-The Pirates have some promising young arms in their rotation.
LHP-Zach Duke(23): Duke had a sophomore slump in 2006 after posting a
brilliant 1.81 E.R.A. in 14 starts as a rookie in 2005. He struggled
with an E.R.A. of over five in the first half of 2006 but settled in to
post a 3.65 E.R.A. after the All-Star break.
RHP-Ian Snell(25): Snell was solid in his first full season as a
starter by winning 14 games for the Pirates. He had 169 strikeouts in
186 innings of work for Pittsburgh in 2006.
LHP-Paul Maholm(24): Maholm was very effective at home (3.59 E.R.A.)
but suspect on the road (6.14 E.R.A.) in 2006. The youngster needs to
improve on his control after issuing 81 walks in 176 innings of
pitching last season.
LHP-Tom Gorzelanny(24): Gorzelanny showed immediate promise as a rookie
in 2006 with an E.R.A. of under four. Like Maholm, the young hurler had
some control issues with 31 walks in 62.2 innings of work last season.
RHP-Tony Armas(28): A once promising career has been slowed by some arm
injury woes. From 2003-05, Armas was only able to make 40 starts due to
injuries.
Overall rotation outlook: The Pirates organization has produced some
quality young arms. With all four of the top starters being 25 or
younger, Pittsburgh has a nice foundation to build upon. While there
will be some growing pains for this youthful staff, these lively arms
will keep the Buccs in a lot of games in 2007. This rotation could be a
top flight NL staff in the next two to three years. In 2007, the
Pirates starters will be a middle of the pack NL rotation.
Bullpen-The Pirates will need to replace one of the best young closers in baseball.
Setup relief-RHP Matt Capps(23) was durable member of the Pirates pen
in 2006 with 85 appearances. He displayed outstanding control with only
12 walks in over 80 innings of work. Veteran LHP Damaso Marte(32) has
established himself as a power arm setup guy in recent years. LHP John
Grabow(28) was a dependable lefty setup specialist in 2006. RHP Shawn
Chacon(29) has experience as a closer in addition to more recent
efforts as a starter.
Closer-RHP Salomon Torres(35): Torres will replace the departed Mike
Gonzalez as the Pirates closer in 2006. Torres did gain some closing
opportunities in 2006 with 12 saves after appearing in a whopping 94
games for Pittsburgh.
Overall pitching outlook: The Pirates ranked 9th in the NL in runs
allowed last season. Pittsburgh should be able to make some strides in
2007 as the young staff takes another step forward. The Pirates hurlers
do need to improve with some more consistent efforts on the road in
2007 as Pittsburgh's pitching was not effective on the road in 2006.
Still, the Pirates should be able to stay in a lot of games this year
with their promising young pitchers. Look for Pittsburgh to move up a
spot of two in the NL runs allowed rankings in 2007.
Final recap and recommendation: The Pirates gave visiting teams a lot
of trouble in 2006 with a solid 43-38 home record. Unfortunately, these
solid efforts were lost on the road as the Pirates were a woeful 24-57
in their 2006 away efforts. While this young squad will still be over
matched at times, Pittsburgh should be a more competitive and
consistent team in 2007. The lineup still has some holes but the
Laroche-Bay combo should lift this team to a few more wins in 2007. The
pitching of the Pirates will enable the Buccs to grind out a few extra
wins as well in 2007. While Pittsburgh still has a long way to go
before they can become a winning team, the Pirates have enough
positives in 2007 to nudge past 70 wins this season.
This
is the 20th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
Oakland Athletics-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 84 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-93
2005-88
2004-91
3-year average: 91
Lineup-The A's have some question marks in their lineup. Here's a look:
C-Jason Kendall(32): While he is no longer an elite player, Kendall
still provides value to an offense. He makes contact and gets on base
(.367 on-base average in 2006).
1B-Dan Johnson(27): Johnson, after hitting 15 HR's as a rookie in 2005,
struggled in 2006 with just 9 HR's and a .234 average. The left-handed
hitter will likely be part of a platoon at first.
2B-Mark Ellis(29): After a big season in 2005 (.316 batting average), Ellis slumped in 2006 with a .249 average.
SS-Bobby Crosby(27): A big key for Oakland. He has been a catalyst for
the A's but has been slowed by injuries in the last two seasons. Crosby
has missed 144 games over the last two years. With Mark Kotsay already
on the shelf with an injury, the A's need Crosby to stay healthy in
2007.
3B-Eric Chavez(29): Chavez (22 HR's, 72 RBI's, .241 average) had his
worst season in 2006 since his rookie campaign in 1999. He could be
poised for a rebound year after driving in more than 100 runs in four
of five seasons from 2001-05.
LF-Shannon Stewart(33): The career .299 hitter has been slowed by
injuries in recent years. Stewart has missed 218 games over the last
three seasons.
CF-Mark Kotsay(31): Kotsay will be out until at least June after back
surgery. Like Crosby, he is a player who provides great intangibles for
Oakland. Veteran Milton Bradley will take over in center while he is
out.
RF-Nick Swisher(26): While many A's had down seasons in 2006, Swisher
stepped up to become an offensive leader for Oakland with 35 HR's and
106 runs scored. He showed great patience for a young hitter with 97
walks.
DH-Mike Piazza(38): Age has caught up to Piazza in the last four
seasons but the DH role could bring some new life. He has only averaged
18 HR's and 55 RBI's since 2003 although he only played in an average
of 109 games per year during this stretch. Piazza can still be a threat
in a lineup.
Overall lineup outlook(5 right-handed batters, 3 left-handed batters,
and 1 switch-hitter): The A's were 9th in the AL in runs scored in
2006. Oakland will have to adjust in 2007 to the departure of its' top
power hitter, Frank Thomas. Still, the A's had a respectable offense
despite down years from Johnson, Ellis, and Chavez. Without Thomas,
these hitters will need to improve in 2007. The loss of Kotsay is a
blow although Bradley is a capable replacement. The A's are likely to
be a middle of the road AL offense again in 2007.
Starting rotation-The A's will have to overcome the loss of ace Barry Zito in 2007.
RHP-Rich Harden(25): One of the top young arms in baseball has been
slowed by injuries in the last two seasons. Harden has only started 28
games in the last two years. With Zito out of the mix, Harden's health
is a critical factor for Oakland in 2007.
RHP-Dan Haren(26): Haren has won 14 games and made 34 starts in each of
his two seasons with the A's. He has outstanding control with only 45
walks in 2006 in 223 innings.
RHP-Esteban Loaiza(35): Loaiza, after posting an E.R.A. of well over
six before the All-Star break, came on in the second half of last
season. He posted a record of 8-4 with a 4.01 E.R.A. after the break to
help the A's gain a playoff berth.
RHP-Joe Blanton(26): Blanton's 16 wins in 2006 were a bit misleading.
He had an E.R.A. of nearly five last season after posting a solid 3.53
E.R.A. in 2005. Blanton allowed an alarming total of 241 hits in 194.1
innings of work in 2006.
LHP-Joe Kennedy(27): Kennedy will return to a starting role after being an effective lefty bullpen specialist in 2006.
Overall rotation outlook: The A's are hoping that having Harden
available for 30+ starts will help to offset the loss of Zito. Oakland
still has a solid group of starting arms even without Zito. Kennedy has
been inconsistent as a starter in the past but he does have some
momentum from last year. Blanton and Loaiza will need to step up for
more consistency in 2007. While this staff has fallen behind the Angels
rotation in the AL West, the A's are poised to once again have one of
the better AL rotations in 2007.
Bullpen-The A's are well stocked with quality young arms in their pen.
Setup relief-RHP Justin Duchscherer(29) posted an E.R.A. of under three
for the second straight season in 2006. RHP Kiko Calero(32) was solid
out of the Oakland pen as well in 2006 with an E.R.A. of 3.41. RHP Chad
Gaudin(24) is another effective hurler out of the pen. Veteran LHP Alan
Embree(37) has joined the pen in 2007 as a lefty specialist.
Closer-RHP Huston Street(23): Street has a great future as a closer
although he is still adjusting to being a big league closer at a young
age. He had 11 blown saves in 48 chances in 2006.
Overall pitching outlook: Only Minnesota and Detroit allowed fewer runs
than Oakland in 2006. The A's compiled the #3 AL ranking despite only
getting 9 starts from Harden. Of course, Zito was a big part of the
success with 34 starts. Oakland will probably slip a little but not too
much. The bullpen is deep and outstanding. The overall rotation is a
quality group. The A's will have a top 5 AL overall pitching staff in
2007.
Final recap and recommendation: The A's have won more than 90 games in
six of the last seven seasons. Oakland won 93 games in 2006 despite
losing Giambi, Tejada, Hudson, and Mulder in recent previous seasons.
While the departures of Thomas and Zito will be felt, this organization
always finds a way to overcome significant personnel losses. The lineup
has a mix of quality young players from the organization mixed in with
some proven vets. While players like Kendall, Stewart, and Piazza have
already played their best baseball, these vets are still able to
contribute. The strong pitching staff gives Oakland a chance to win on
most days despite an average offense. While another 90-win campaign may
be a little optimistic, it can't be ruled out for this resourceful
organization. The A's find a way to win again in 2007.
This
is the 19th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major
league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for
the 2007 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two
levels of ranking. 1-star choices will be leans but not official play
recommendations. 2-star rankings will be my strongest selections that I
would recommend placing a wager on.
New York Yankees-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 97 1/2 (Various Sportsbooks)
Last 3 seasons wins totals
2006-97
2005-95
2004-101
3-year average: 98
Lineup-There is plenty of star power in the Yankees lineup. Here's a look:
C-Jorge Posada(35): He is at an age where most catchers begin to
decline offensively. However, Posada drove in more than 90 runs for the
fourth time in the last six years with 93 RBI's in 2006.
1B-Doug Mientkiewicz(32): He has slumped with the bat in recent years
after hitting .300 twice with the Twins earlier in his career.
Mientkiewicz won't have to do too much with all of the thunder in the
Yankees lineup.
2B-Robinson Cano(24): The Yankees have produced another big talent in
their organization. Cano hit .342 in his second big league season. With
this club showing some age, Cano is a key to the transition that will
be coming in the near future.
SS-Derek Jeter(32): Many felt that Jeter should have won the MVP after a season in which he hit .343 in 2006.
3B-Alex Rodriguez(31): His big numbers in the regular season have been
offset by some post-season struggles. Even though he has averaged 40
HR's with 119 RBI's in his three seasons in New York, Rodriguez will
have to come through in the playoffs to quiet the critics.
LF-Hideki Matsui(32): After driving in more than 105 runs in each of
his first three seasons with the Yankees, Matsui missed 111 games due
to injury in 2006. He has been a solid clutch hitter for the Yankees.
CF-Johnny Damon(33): Damon made a quick transition in his first season
in New York with a career-high 24 HR's. He has scored more than 100
runs in each of the last nine seasons.
RF-Bobby Abreu(33): Abreu fit in well with the Yankees by hitting .330
in 58 games with 42 RBI's after coming over from the Phillies. He has
an outstanding eye at the plate with at least 100 walks in each of the
last eight seasons.
