by Teddy Covers, senior handicapper at www.sportsmemo.com

The St Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros finished 1-2 in the NL Central standings last year. They finished 1-2 in the NL Central in 2005. They finished 1-2 in the NL Central in 2004. They finished 2-3 in the NL Central in 2003, but were 1-2 in the division back in 2002. In short, these two teams have dominated this division for the last five years, with only the Cubs 2003 division title to show for the rest of the teams.

This year, I expect the division to finally see a reversal. The bottom four teams in the division – Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Chicago and Cincinnati – are all improved from where they were a year ago. Meanwhile, both the Astros and the Cardinals have taken a step back. Today, I’ll look at the weaknesses on the Houston roster, and as the week progresses, I’ll break down the fortunes of the other five contenders in the NL Central.

Brad Lidge blew his first save of the new season last night, while Houston struggled mightily on offense, unable to get anything even resembling a clutch hit. Their sparkplug at the top of the order, Willie Taveras, plays for the Rockies these days, leaving 41 year old Craig Biggio, in his final season before retirement, as the only leadoff hitter on the roster.

In fact, all of the Astros key bats -- Morgan Ensberg, Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman – are all on the wrong side of 30. Houston finished 25th out of 30 teams in the majors in runs scored last year. This aging, slow lineup doesn’t look like it’s likely to significantly improve upon those numbers.

The Astros starting pitching is a mess as well. Roger Clemens hasn’t announced whether he’ll return to the field yet, and if he does, it won’t be for several months and it might not be in Houston. While Roy Oswalt is a dominant #1, their #2 starter, Jason Jennings, won only nine games for the lowly Rockies last year. It’s surely worth noting that Jennings has an 0-3 record with a 10.47 ERA in three previous starts at Minute Maid Park.

40 year old Woody Williams is the #3 starter. Wildly inconsistent Wandy Rodrigues, with an ERA over 5.50 and a WHIP of over 1.50 in his two big league seasons will be responsible for the #4 spot. 29 year old rookie Chris Sampson is penciled in as the #5 starter. This is not a dominant rotation, plain and simple.

Brad Lidge hasn’t been the same pitcher since allowing Albert Pujols to eat him alive in the 2005 NLCS. and with the bullpen problems, we’re looking at an Astros team that is weaker than average both on the mound and at the plate, a recipe for a losing season. Lidge had an ERA over 5.00, allowing 36 walks and ten dingers while blowing six saves and taking five losses last year. As last night’s blown save clearly indicates, he’s not an elite level closer. Chad Qualls gave up the winning home run in extra innings last night. Middle relievers like Dave Borkowski and Rick White don’t inspire much confidence.

Let’s not forget that Houston won only 82 regular season games last year to finish second in the division. It’s not like this team is falling off from 90 or 100 win seasons – if this club declines in ’07, as I expect they will, we’re talking about sub .500 seasons and lots of profit for bettors betting against them….

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