All week on television, I keep hearing the “experts”
chirping on and on as to how each believes that the Patriots moving on to the
AFC Championship is a foregone conclusion, and taking care of the Jaguars was
going to be a piece of cake. Therefore,
I thought I would come in and not just throw that theory under the bus, but
chain it up to the back of the bus and let it drag for a while. You see, not only do the Jaguars have a lot
of talent on both sides of the ball, but also could find that history could
possibly be on their side as well. To
explain, let’s flashback to the NFL just over a decade ago…
And the Rest is History…
It was 1995, and the football world soon would learn
that the city of Jacksonville, Florida was about to surprise many by joining
Charlotte, North Carolina as the other city that year to be rewarded with an
NFL franchise.
Unlike most expansion franchises of past and
present, the Jacksonville Jaguars were immediately thrust into an eclectic mix
of controversy, attention, and excitement.
Right off the bat, the team not only was sued by the Ford Motor Company
due to the similarity of the team logo (to that of the Jaguar car), the Jaguars
also forced their way onto the NFL scene almost immediately by making the AFC
Playoffs in only its second year of existence.
This feat, of course, was matched by their youthful NFC counterparts,
the Carolina Panthers. Yet, it wasn’t
the way this team made the playoffs, but what they did once they got there that
is pertinent. As you will soon see, the
’96 Jaguars have some eerie similarities to its 2007 counterpart.
On the Mark
The ’96 Jaguars were led by Mark Brunell, who at the
time, was a slick-footed and mobile 26-year old quarterback. Brunell not only eclipsed the 4,000 passing
yard plateau, but also had nearly 400 yards on the ground that year. David Garrard, the 2007 version of Brunell,
while equally as mobile (nearly 200 yards during the season), is instead built
like a tank, able to run over defenders like they’re a speed bump on the
road. Furthermore, Garrard has made
very few mistakes, tossing only three interceptions during 325 regular season
attempts. Garrard’s mistake-free play
and mobility is going to be key in competing with New England’s potent attack. The “Who Are You” Crew
The Jacksonville receiving corps was a group of
non-household names in 1996, yet featured players talented enough that they
played themselves onto the NFL map.
During the historic 1996 campaign, Keenan McCardell and Jimmy Smith established
themselves in the NFL, as both eclipsed the 1,000 yards receiving mark that
season. This year’s group of receivers
in Jacksonville are once again not household names, yet possess enough talent
to catch Garrard’s passes when the game is on the line. The Jags featured no 1,000 receivers in
2007, but successfully spread the ball out to players such as Reggie Williams,
Ernest Wilford, Matt Jones, and Dennis Northcutt.
The Two-Headed Monsters
Having two feature backs on one team, also
frequently referred to as the “two headed monster”, is a trendy and often used
strategy in today’s NFL. The concept
was infrequently used in the ‘90’s, but the Jaguars did implement it by using
both James Stewart and Natrone Means during most games. Jacksonville’s 1996 two-headed monster
combined for over 1,200 yards rushing.
The 2007 version features veteran Fred Taylor alongside the youthfully
talented Maurice Jones-Drew. Taylor and
Jones-Drew combined for nearly 2,000 yards rushing this season. The “Men of Teal”
On defense, the Jaguars are physical. A blue-collar group that consistently hits
you in the mouth and tries to knock you off the line of scrimmage. Statistically, they’re not among the
league’s elite, but they still cracked the top 15 in both 1996 and 2007. This stat was especially impressive for the
2007 team, who found themselves in a division with a trio of solid football
teams, none of which ended the season with a losing record (Indianapolis –
13-3, Tennessee – 10-6, and Houston – 8-8).
They’re a big, solid, and strong group, almost “Superman-like”. Therefore, one could easily refer to them as
the “Men of Teal”, instead of the “Men of Steel”. Elite and Greet
These two Jacksonville playoff teams (past and
present) both were presented a meet and greet with the NFL’s elite team during
that respective season. In 1996, it was
the Denver Broncos, led by poster boy John Elway, who powered their way to a
13-3 regular season record. Alongside
of Elway included a slew of other weapons, including RB Terrell Davis, TE
Shannon Sharpe, WR Rod Smith, and WR Ed McCaffrey. In 1996, the Broncos were #1 in the NFL in total yards on
offense, as well as #4 in total yards on defense. The 2007 counterpart is the story of the year in the NFL, that
being the powerful New England Patriots, led by today’s poster boy Tom
Brady. Vaulting their way to the first
ever 16-0 regular season, the Patriots, run by head coach Bill Belichick, also
featured their own arsenal of weapons, including WR Randy Moss, WR Wes Welker,
ILB Tedy Bruschi, CB Asante Samuel, among others. Interestingly enough, like the ’96 Broncos, the ’07 Patriots were
#1 in the NFL in total yards on offense, as well as #4 in total yards on
defense. Past and Present Day…
The 1996 Jags team entered the playoffs as the #5
seed, eventually holding off the Buffalo Bills 30-27 during Wild Card
weekend. That set up the Divisional
playoff matchup with the high octane Broncos team, when the Jags shocked the
world by eliminating Denver at home by the same score (30-27). Today, here we are yet again. The Jaguars are the #5 seed in the AFC. They enter Saturday night’s showdown with
New England as a heavy underdog, barely escaping with a narrow 31-29 victory in
Pittsburgh last weekend. The Patriots,
led by NFL Passing TD record holder Tom Brady, have the heavy burden of trying
to complete the unimaginable, a perfect season since the NFL expanded to
sixteen regular season games.
Ironically, the 1996 Jaguars eventually lost the AFC Championship game
that year to the Patriots.
A Simple Plan
The New England juggernaut is hanging on by a
thread. If you can’t see it, your
judgment is clouded. The Eagles, the
Ravens… all teams that are inferior in talent this year, yet had their chances. There is only so many times a team can keep
eeking out victories. Maybe if Rex Ryan
hadn’t called that timeout in Baltimore.
Perhaps if Eli hadn’t tossed that late interception in New York. If only the Colts and Giants could manage to
hold on to each of their fourth quarter leads.
Sure, it shows talent and poise to keep on winning, but the question
remains, do the Patriots have three more games like this in them?
Beating the Patriots, believe it or not, requires a
simple plan. Limit your mistakes and eat clock. The Jaguars have the players to
make this happen. Jones-Drew and Taylor
need to do their best impression of Willis McGahee and Brandon Jacobs. Run hard, run strong, and run efficiently,
keeping New England’s offense off the field as much as possible. Because, the Pats will score. Garrard and the offense need to be in
regular season form. The defense needs
to be themselves… physical, smack the opposition in the mouth, while wreaking
havoc for players like Moss right off the line of scrimmage. The tangibles are there.
Execution is the only thing left. And oh yeah, you will have thousands
upon thousands of wicked-loud fans to deal with up there in
Chowda-land. Pressure? Nahhhh…
Easier said than done, that much is true. Yet, not out of the realm of possibility.
In Conclusion
Most involved with this 2007 Jacksonville team
weren’t placed in the exact situation as the 1996 team, but the franchise as a
whole has been. A franchise that has
consistently maintained the same format and structure throughout its existence,
from its inception in 1995 until today.
This 2007 Jaguars team can build off that, and feed off it. A team with similar makeup and strengths
able to make the unthinkable happen. It
can happen
again. Now, the 2007 Jaguars are in a
position to make their own history.
As we have seen during the season, a near flawless
game is needed to knock off the Patriots, and teams that have came close,
simply made too many critical mistakes down the stretch, eventually
relinquishing the lead to Tom Brady and crew.
If the Jaguars should need any motivation at all, Coach Del Rio should
pipe in highlights of those feisty ’96 Jaguars, who derailed pretty boy John
Elway and Denver’s offensive onslaught.
The “Men of Teal” are here, and don’t be shocked if
they spoil New England’s Super Bowl pahhty.
As a Steeler fan, I congratulate your Jags on winning twice in Pittsburgh and deservedly moving on. Of course the Jags have a chance vs. New England, but their going to have to do more than limit mistakes and eat clock.
1) Patriots don't need much time to score, so time of possession is an illusion with them.
2) Not only do you have to limit mistakes, you must force mistakes and convert into points. They won't get a lot of three and outs on NE, so they will need to force turnovers, 4th down conversion failures and FG attempts.
3) Find a way to get Brady uncomfortable. Your secondary is really fairly average. Mathis is agressive, but without CONSTANT PRESSURE, Brady will pick you apart with Welker and Gaffney. That's the best pass-blocking OL in the league your playing this week, not the leaky Pittsburgh Steelers O-line.
4) Yeah you have to be physical, but that doesn't intimidate them. You have to do it with skill and execution. Moss might be neutralized but any other one of their skill position players can play that kind of game. You need to make their LBs work hard and they can be worn down.
5) Garrard has to be GREAT. He better complete at least 75% of his passes and get 60-75% 3rd down conversions out of the offense. If he throws up any floaters the Patriots secondary will make him pay and pay dearly.
6) Get points whenever you can. People say you can't kick FGs against New England, but they are not easy to convert 4th and medium-to-long. They will score, but you need to get points to STAY IN THE GAME.
I wouldn't be surprised at all. I think it will be close. As always this is a very well done piece.
Unfortunantly I don't think the Jaguars have quite enough to drag down NE.
I don't think they will go all the way.. but I think they will have this one.
Just my .02 heck I'll be surprised if I go 2/2 this weekend.
MOSEBY,
First off, thanks for stopping by... I appreciate your comments and thoughts. You raise some interesting points. I do want to clarify to you that I'm not a Jaguars fan. I'm simply writing about the past history of the team and how they really have a legit shot of winning this game, and how I think they could make it happen.
I did also mention that the "Pats will score"... and they will. We all know that. Saying otherwise is just silly. However, while they can and do score quickly, Jacksonville still needs to eat clock... as much as they can to just try and limit the opportunities that New England has. The Ravens did it quite successfully by pounding McGahee down the field all game. I recall him having 130+ yards rushing. They can be run on. Take care - KP
YEEMUM,
Thank you as always... hope all is well.
I do think this could be a battle... and that it will be close. It is going to be a tall order to beat New England, there is no doubt about that.
So you have peaked my curiosity now... what are your four picks for the weekend? See ya...
Kev....nice job here! Real nice. However, chew clock to beat the Pats? I think they need more than that because Brady can score in less than a minute if needed.
The Jags are going to have to come after him with a vengeance. Pressure him every play, and I'm not sure if the Jags' DE's are capable of that kind of pressure. They will need to stunt a lot, and limit the angle blocks of the Pats.
Sorry, I know you're rooting for the Jags, but the Pats will win by 18 points. Ouch, that must have killed you to hear that. My Redskins are out, so my opinions are completely unbiased. Ok...Brady is hot. That's one bias.
I'd like to see the Jags win, and it wouldn't necessarily surprise me if they did, but I don't see it. The Pats have blown up my personal theory of winning a football game. Run the ball, stop the other team from running. The Pats can beat you with a total of 10 yards rushing for the entire game.
I'll tell you this much though. The Jags will give them a fight. And if the Jags do pull it off, I'm going to shave my head and check myself into rehab, before making arrangements to have someone watch my kids. I don't have any kids but I'll find some before I complete the aforementioned.
IAN,
Ha ha... hmm, wait who are you rooting for?! Just teasing...
LISE,
OK, so at times I come off as oversimplifying it... fine fine, nitpick away. =) Honestly though, when I say smack them in the mouth, I mean also trying to get pressure and be physical in any way possible. I wanted to say "Pressure Brady", but not many people can do that... so I kind of just let it go... let's face it, the Pats are going to get their opps... and they're going to score their points. Jacksonville just needs to give them as little opportunities as possible to pile it on. Teams have come close... especially recently. Even the hapless Ravens offense did... this is possible.
18 points? OK... I'll say the Jags cover. That can be our wager... what is it, 11... 12 points right now?
MOONDOG,
OK, my last comment didn't go through. I had a few witty lines in there too. OH well. Honestly though, I inquired if you were bald... to gauge how crazy your "off the wall scenario" of shaving your head was.
The Jags have to be flawless to win... they have it in them, but as we know, the Patriots are so talented and so well-disciplined... that they basically keep teams from being flawless.
I honestly just hope for a great set of games this weekend, filled with excitement. Later
BAYOU,
Thanks bud... you're too kind.
We'll see how this whole thing goes down. I can't wait to watch the games this weekend.
Hey by the way, I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume that you really enjoyed Monday's game?! Congrats... I saw some of your stuff on the big game... great reads. Take care
Well ksp, very nicely done indeed. About a month ago, I predicted the Jags would win the Super Bowl. I feel even more confident now. Thanks to you, I'm calling my bookie to drop a hunski on them. Straight up. I don't need no stinkin' points. Thanks!
Seriously, I did pick the Jags. And in the NFC, I could think of a few teams that could go into either Dallas or Green Bay and win. It's just so wide open. But I couldn't decide on the Giants or Seahawks. Who knows, maybe they'll be playing each other.
Nice job, but I don't have tell you who I'm rooting for. In all honesty though, the Pats did give me quite a few scares those last few games. Especially the one against the Giants. They did have a week off, so hopefully they managed to work out all those kinks.
If the Jags are going to win, it won't be because the Pats will make mistakes, because they won't. The Jags are going to have to out execute the Pats, and it is just that simple. Yes, they will have to put a LOT of pressure on Brady to throw off the timing of that offense. But this is going to have to be the most complete game the Jags play all year in all three areas of the game!!
I'm not a Jax fan, but I'm hoping they pull the upset. I'm not a Pats hater either, but I'm a little tired of their act. If they were more humble, I wouldn't mind seeing them win. I honestly can't stand Rodney Harrison and Bill Bellichik though.
KSP nice read but I think the pats are just tooo much for them. I want the jags to win but they are going up against arguably the greatest nfl team ever! I would love to see the upset but I don't think it will happen. Once again nice read
MR. RICKO,
What is up? It's been a while... I hope all is well with you. Happy New Year by the way.
Very interesting pick. It could happen. As they are saying, the last few winners are Wild Card teams. It's down to single game elimination, and it isn't like teams haven't come close to taking out New England. It'll be tough at Gillette though. Oh boy, don't come back yellin' if you lose that "hunski". Ha ha. Later
BUBBLES,
Thanks. I know I know... I know where your ties are, and that you will be paying close attention if you can. Honestly, they have had a lot of close games in the second half of the season. What do you account that to? Teams starting to figure them out slightly, maybe a little wear and tear as the season progresses, or a combo of that and everything else? It should be an interesting football weekend.
KC71,
Thanks for dropping in. Agreed, the poise and talent of the Pats is there, and they usually don't make many mistakes. I'm sure the Jags would love to pressure Brady, but that has been a tall order for any team, so who knows. If Jacksonville pulls it off, I think we all know it will be in a shootout.
EDMONSPK,
What's up buddy? Long time no see... welcome back to these parts.
I think inside of all of us we want to see that major story or major upset that makes news, with the obvious exception that we would have ties to either team. In this case, I don't. If you were to ask me my team, I have been a die-hard 'Skins fan my whole life. Take care
LORI,
Ha ha... nice. Well then, a big wave and a HI right back at ya.
MONTANADAN,
I almost addressed someone else, because there is someone else out there with the same avatar. Hmm, wait are you the same person? Anyway...
Three more wins and you can definitely make that argument that New England is the greatest team ever. Then again, they still have Jax, Ind/SD, and NYG/GB/SEA/DAL to get by to make it happen. As they say, "that's why they play the games". Take care...
I don't have to work this weekend, so I will be paying very close attention to the game. I think teams may have started to figure them out, but I also believe that they got a little worn out there. Honestly, there was no need for the starters to play the whole game in some of them. It was a great season, which could turn out to be for nothing if they don't win the superbowl. We didn't play the Jaguars this year, so it should be a very interesting game. All of the games should be this weekend. It's it foolish of me to actually think the Seahawks will beat the Packers?
All the analysts are always saying the Jags will top the Colts. Still waiting on that one.....
So they can't beat the Colts. They're not going to beat the Pats at home. In the playoffs.
Good read Mr. KP, I remember laughing at the Broncos when they lost to the Jags. Broncos are just one of those teams I never liked, so you bring back good memories.
The patriots will not give up a 95 yard kick return. Brady will not give up an interception for a touchdown. If Ben can throw for 300 yards aganist the jags, look for Brady to put up about 500 yards. NE:35 JAGS: 17. Dont buy into all the so called experts thinking the jags have a chance. They are the same ones that thought Ohio State was going to give LSU a game.
The patriots will not give up a 95yard kick off return. Brady will not throw an interception for a touchdown. If Ben can throw for 300 yards, Brady will throw for 500 yards. NE:35 JAGS:17.
BUBBLES,
Ah well, there you go! Bonus for you... I bet you're fired up about that one.
It isn't foolish to think the 'Hawks can knock off the Pack. I do think GB is going to win... the home field advantage will be big, but then again, there are a lot of young players on this Green Bay team that have not been in this situation before.
HOIT,
Interesting pick there. 23 points would signal FG's... and that won't get it done. Hence, why you have them on the short end of the stick.
I see you have a Pryor post out there. I was going to write something... might be no need for it now and I'm going to go check out what you got out there. Later.
MONTANADAN,
I figured... good to hear from you.
Yes, I should get another one of those out there. You should hound me to try and at least do it on some kind of timed regular basis... instead of so sporadically. The holidays put me out of whack due to vacation, etc. Later...
JOSH Q,
Thanks bro... and honestly, call me a Super Sleuth, but somehow, I knew you would feel that way. About their chances that is... not the post.
SHOOTER,
Nice, a Shooter sighting! Welcome back around these parts. I miss the days of trying to stump me with obscure movie comedic quotes.
Here's to hoping it is an exciting weekend (-- raises glass --) Later...
SMITTY,
I think most experts think it will be the Pats in a blowout. Don't be too quick to go and compare Jacksonville's performance last week. This is a completely different team and a different game. Each week is different. Obviously, they will need to play out of their minds to win, but still...
ksp,
Thanks. Still trying to rewet my feet. I have no problem if the story is worth reporting. The Pats is newsworthy, I refuse to buy into their hype (or any for that matter)until after they win the Super Bowl.
Good analysis and comparison of the 1996 and 2007 Jags squads. I like to think the 1996 squad was wide-eyed and the 2007 squad is a little more seasoned.
I agree with you that the key to a Jacksonville upset win is for the Jags to chew up the clock, make the most of their scoring opportunities, and win the turnover battle. I think they can do it.
I figure the Pack will probably win, but with them being such a young team, I hesitate on that. I'm so ready for Saturday nights game, I can't wait. I'm very happy they aren't playing Sunday @ 3 because I have to work Sunday night which means I'll be sleeping at that time. Everything has worked out for me so far
EDMONSPK,
You're probably one of the few that has that mindset. Then again, one could contribute the media for adding a lot of the hype like that. Heck, ESPN had a section on their ticker the last two months titled "Patriots". I thought that was a little absurd to be honest. Just put it under NFL... but I digress.
REV and OLDSKEWLER,
Rev - Now you had to go there and bring up the money, now didn't you?! =)
Then again, Oldskewler makes a good point here. The odds could change things. I do think the Jags will cover. You?
JON,
Big Jon... how have you been?
Very gutsy pick there... especially putting New England at only the 20 point mark. I think if the Jags are to win, they have to get into the 30's somehow. It's all guesswork though. I saw your picks, going to go comment on them now... later
BUBBLES,
Absolutely. I think it is which ends up being a bigger favor... that Lambeau home field advantage, or the inexperience of the Packers in playoff situations. Then again, we must always remember their leader is chock full of heroics. It could come down to him in the fourth...
REV,
Sorry I haven't been around bro... I'll go take a look now. I have been out a lot this month for various reasons. I can talk to you about all that on email... but I'll touch base. Hope all is well