jon_464's Blog
by: jon_464
MLB Predictions
Mar 29, 2008 | 10:16PM | report this

Even though the season "started" already in Japan, I am offering a brief prediction for the 2008 MLB season.

AL EAST

  1. Boston Red Sox:  this team figures to be strong all season, Curt Schilling's injury notwithstanding. They have outstanding pitching, above-average hitting, and superb defense. About the only thing separating them from their third title in five years will be health. Predicted record: 100-62.
  2. New York Yankees: this is a team in transition. Gone is Joe Torre as manager, replaced by Joe Girardi. Mike Mussina is a back of the rotation starter at this stage in his career. Fortunately the Yanks do have some young stud pitchers. And they won't have Torre to blow out their arms. Offensively, they will be potent again. Predicted record: 90-72.
  3. Tampa Bay Rays: don't laugh, but I think this team has what it takes to not only escape the cellar, but their rotation could do some great things this year. They have a good mixture of youngsters and veterans. This will be the year they have their first winning season in team history. Predicted record: 84-78.
  4. Toronto Blue Jays: this team is the biggest enigma in baseball. Just when you want to buy stock in them, they fall flat on their faces. I'm not buying stock in them this year. Aside from Roy Halladay, their rotation is suspect. Predicted record: 76-86.
  5. Baltimore Orioles: as long as Peter Angelos remains owner of this once-proud and revered franchise, there is no escaping the cellar. While they have some good young arms, they are that, young. They will be the doormat of this division for the foreseeable future. Predicted record: 60-102.

AL CENTRAL

  1. Cleveland Indians: Sabathia and Carmona. TWO front-line starters that are capable of Cy Young winning seasons. Came within one game of going to the World Series. They're a year older and a year better. Predicted record: 97-65.
  2. Detroit Tigers: I'm not buying into the hype. I'm just not. Yes, they are a good team. Aside from Justin Verlander, I'm not sold on this staff. They didn't improve their bullpen. And playoff teams have an outstanding 'pen. They did have a great pen in 2006, but this isn't 2006. Still, they are good enough to be a wild-card team. Predicted record: 93-69 (wild card).
  3. Minnesota Twins: something tells me not to sleep on the Twins this year. While I won't, this division is too good now. Give them a couple of years. Predicted record: 85-77.
  4. Chicago White Sox: it seems like they won the World Series way back in the day instead of in 2005. This team is too inconsistent to seriously contend. Could this be Ozzie Guillen's last year in Chicago? Possibly. Predicted record: 79-83.
  5. Kansas City Royals: they're still the Royals. But they won't lose 100 games this year. Brian Bannister is a stud, and a legitimate ace. They will threaten to have a winning season, but fall short. Predicted record: 78-84.

AL WEST

  1. Anaheim Angels: best team in the worst division in the American League. And that's not saying much. Health is the key issue, particularly in the postseason. If they're healthy in the postseason, they could do damage. Predicted record: 96-66.
  2. Seattle Mariners: if they had another stud starter they could threaten to topple the Angels from their perch. J.J. Putz is a stud closer, perhaps the best in the bigs. While the Mariners are a decent team with a LOT of heart, I think they fade down the stretch. Predicted record: 90-72.
  3. Texas Rangers: the chasm between this team and the Angels is almost as big as the Grand Canyon. They will finish double digits behind the Mariners. Predicted record: 70-92.
  4. Oakland Athletics: gone are the days when they were a perennial contender. The front office has made some gross errors in judgment. They have traded away all their best players. They have become the Baltimore Orioles West, minus the terrible owner. Predicted record: 64-98.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL EAST

  1. Philadelphia Phillies: their amazing comeback last season has given them lots of confidence entering this season. They could have their third different MVP in as many years in Chase Utley. This team has a lot of heart, but they ran out of gas in the postseason last year. Predicted record: 95-67.
  2. New York Mets: I'm not buying into the Johan Santana hype. While Santana is a two time Cy Young Award winner, he won them while in the American League. I think he'll do well at first, but Santana alone won't carry the Mets past the Phils. Pedro Martinez is on his last legs. Unlike last year, this team will get into the postseason as a wild card. Predicted record: 93-69 (wild card).
  3. Atlanta Braves: with a few breaks, this team could sneak into the postseason. They will be in contention for most of the season but fade at the tail end. Predicted record: 90-72.
  4. Washington Nationals: they'll be moving into a gleaming new ballpark. Too bad this will be the best part of the team. Too little talent on this team to threaten the big boys. At least they're not the Marlins. Predicted record: 74-88.
  5. Florida Marlins: the worst mistake they made was firing Joe Girardi after the 2006 season. The second worst was Jeffrey Loria not selling the team. This is a AAA team masquerading as a major league team. Predicted record: 52-110.

NL CENTRAL

  1. Chicago Cubs: the best team in the worst division in baseball. They will have the worst record of a division champion this season. Predicted record: 86-76.
  2. Milwaukee Brewers: I'm not counting on Ben Sheets being healthy for a full season. IF he is healthy for the whole season, they could overtake the Cubs. Predicted record: 83-79.
  3. Cincinnati Reds: IF their pitching holds up, they could leapfrog both the Cubs and Brewers. Perhaps in another year. Predicted record: 82-80.
  4. Houston Astros:  because they are in the Central, they have a chance. A slim chance. Miguel Tejada is older, and will have to adjust to a new league and new pitchers. I don't see it happening for the 'Stros. Predicted record: 74-88.
  5. Pittsburgh Pirates: they will finally break their death grip on the NL Central cellar. At some point they will get hot and play like the We Are Family Pirates. Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny will help the Bucs out of the cellar. Predicted record: 72-90.
  6. St. Louis Cardinals: how time has passed since they christened the new Busch Stadium with a World Series championship. They are an eroded shell of that 2006 team. Their pitching is a shambles, Albert Pujols is hurt, and if he is shut down for the season, they will lose more than 100 games. Pujols is a gamer and a stud, but to ask him to carry that team is asking way too much. Predicted record: 66-96.

NL WEST

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers: the pitching is outstanding, but what could hurt them is a lack of offense. Depending on the lineup, they could be world beaters or also-rans. They could finish anywhere from first to fourth in the most competitive division in baseball. Predicted record: 93-69.
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks: like the Dodgers, they have outstanding pitching. But they traded their all-world hammer in the bully, Jose Valverde. It's going to come back and bite them in the arse down the stretch. Predicted record: 91-71.
  3. Colorado Rockies: they pretty much stood pat in the offseason while the rest of the division improved themselves. In this division, it means taking a small step back. And that will cost them a postseason berth. Predicted record: 90-72.
  4. San Diego Padres: while Jake Peavy is a stud, and they still have Trevor Hoffman as that hammer in the pen, their everyday lineup has some question marks, most notably Jim Edmonds. And in a division as competitive as the NL West, that will be too much to overcome. They will still be good enough to have a winning record. Predicted record: 89-73.
  5. San Francisco Giants: aside from a strong pitching staff, the everyday lineup is very weak. They won't score nearly as many runs as they did in the Barry Bonds era. They'll still be good enough to avoid losing 100 games. Predicted record: 66-96.

WHEW! My predictions in a nutshell! The NL West will be too competitive to have a wild-card.

PLAYOFFS

American League: Boston over Detroit; Cleveland over Anaheim. Cleveland over Boston in the ALCS.

National League: Philadelphia over Chicago Cubs; Los Angeles over N.Y. Mets. Los Angeles over Philadelphia in the NLCS

WORLD SERIES: Los Angeles over Cleveland, 4 games to 2. Chad Billingsley comes of age to win Series MVP.

6 Comments | Add a comment   categories: MLB, MLB Rivalry
 
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Dwindy1
Mar 29, 2008
11:51 PM
Jon, you're all right... Stay true to your Trolley Dodgers!

blue@orange
Mar 30, 2008
5:29 AM
wheres that dam bus when i need it?
1. METS 99-63
2.phillies 91-71
3. braves dont matter

1. tigers 100-62
2. clevland 90-72

AMERICAN tigers over red sox
NATIONAL mets over dodgers in 4 game sweep
WORLD SERIES METS over TIGERS in 6

UltraMegaOK1988
Mar 30, 2008
8:24 AM
I don't know about the Phillies beating the Mets and winning 95 games, or about the Rockies finishing third, but I pretty much agree with the rest of your predictions.

You have a lot of 90+ game winners. There are only six of them last season and I'd imagine that given how competitive the West is, it's likely that the two who did win exactly 90 last season (D-Backs and the Rockies in their 163rd game) might finish with a win or two less.

And there hasn't been a 100-game winner since the Cardinals in 2005.

Good calls on the Rays and Reds, by the way.

jon_464
Mar 30, 2008
10:08 AM
Hey Dwindy, I've gotta stay true to my Dodgers!

b@o, the bus is coming tonight! I appreciate you staying true to your Mets.

Ultra, I also have a few teams losing at least 100 games. If Pujols misses significant time, the Cardinals are an International League team. I also could flip flop the Reds and Cubs. But you're probably right re teams winning 90 games. I can see two teams in the NL West winning 90 or more and two in the NL East doing the same.

Thanks for reading and commenting.

ian2813
Mar 30, 2008
1:15 PM
I think you've overrated the bottom 3 teams in the AL Central a bit. I don't see the Twins having a winning record or the Royals coming that close to one. While I don't expect the White Sox to be a contender this year, I don't think Ozzie Guillen's going to be fired. Jerry Reinsdorf and the fans seem to like him too much.

jon_464
Mar 30, 2008
5:48 PM
Ian, thanks for the read and comment. I'm following a hunch about the Twins. They always seem to do well when no one expects them to. And I think you may well be right about Ozzie. He does have a colorful personality that the fans can relate to. Time will tell if the Pale Hose bounce back into contention or not.

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jon_464
I am from Central California. I am passionate about sports, particularly the NFL and NASCAR. My favorite teams are: Panthers (NFL), Lakers (NBA), Flyers (NHL), and Dodgers (MLB). I am also a Kevin Harvick fan in NASCAR. I am a Fresno State honk. (I'll admit it!) And I am also a fan of MMA. Jackie Robinson to this day represents what is right about baseball. I also enjoy discussing the relevant (and sometimes irrelevant) issues of the day pertaining to sports. I will never understand why televised poker is so popular. Who wants to see a bunch of people sitting around a table, muttering to themselves? I do my best to keep politics out of my sports discussions. That is why I recently created a nonsports blog, cencalscribe.
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