After the first quarter of the MLB season, here are a few things that I've seen so far and will comment on:
Trevor Hoffman is closing in on 500 saves. I would love for him to achieve this amazing mark in San Diego, but the way the Pads are going, he'll achieve it on this road trip. After a slow start, Hoffman is back to his usual dominating self. And his buds in the pen are much better than they were last year (not that they were bad; they were stellar to begin with). Hoffman has plenty left in the tank, at least 2-3 years left at this level. Five HUNDRED saves. This means he has been a GREAT closer for the better part of a decade and a half. IF he goes another three years, at this pace he'll finish with over 600 saves! Trevor, welcome to Cooperstown. Here's your bust.
Is the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry overrated AND overhyped, or what? The Yankees are finished as a premier AL power; they suddenly got old and there is not enough talent at the AAA level to step in right away. The Yanks do have minor league talent, but at the lower levels, which means it's 2-3 years away before they become a legit contender again (that is, if they don't trade it away by then). The Red Sox are too deep in their starting staff and have big enough (and clutch enough) bats to keep everyone else in the AL East at bay.
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the NL Central? I think so. They're the best team in the WORST division in MLB.
Are the Cleveland Indians for real? Yes. Fausto Carmona is pitching like Cy Young incarnate. The Indians are a gritty team with a very potent offense and just enough pitching to possibly win the AL Central (a wild card awaits them if they don't win the division). Could Carmona steal the AL Cy Young Award? If he keeps up this pace, he'll have earned it. And to think he was garbage as a closer last year!! If Eric Wedge keeps his job beyond this year, he owes Carmona a steak dinner.
The Mets and Braves are in a slugfest for the NL East. The loser will get the wild card. Philadelphia has to be considered among the most disappointing teams in MLB. So much was expected of them but they have underachieved. Having injuries to your key players doesn't help matters any.
The NL West is going to come down to the final day of the season, if not a one-game playoff. Three teams will vie for the division: Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Dodgers, and the San Diego Padres. By a nose, the Dodgers win, but any one of those three teams could win the division.
Back to the Yankees for a minute. Joe Torre will not manage this team next year, and Brian Cashman will not return either. I foresee wholesale changes (code for blowing up the roster and starting over). They will struggle to finish at .500.
I foresee the same fate for the St. Louis Cardinals. IMHO, Tony La Russa will resign before he blows up the team's roster. He clearly favors veteran players, but most of the Cardinals' veterans have seen their better days. Jim Edmonds is a gamer, but he's clearly on his last legs. Scott Rolen has clearly slowed down. Preston Wilson has an arthritic knee. Juan Encarnacion isn't the player he once was. And on and on. They could learn from the Dodgers: go with young talent, stockpile a veteran that can still contribute (and is willing to be a mentor), and mesh them together.
I don't know how you can count out the Phillies already. They're only 7 back and the Mets haven't hit their slump yet.
The Mets have a tough June schedule. Aside from the Yankees (June 15-17) and Cardinals (June 25-28), every single team they play has at least a .500 record: Diamondbacks, Phillies, Tigers, Dodgers, Twins, Athletics, and the Phillies again at the end of the month.
The Phillies, meanwhile, will get to play the Royals, Cardinals, and Reds -- baseball's worst. They do play the Tigers, White Sox, and Indians, but two of those series are at home, which should be a huge benefit (no Thome or Hafner unless they play first base).
I see the NL East being very, very tight at the end of June. The Mets, Braves, and Phillies will probably only be separated by two or three games.
As for the rest of your blog, it was a good summary. The Cardinals could have a firesale at the end of July if things don't heat up for them.
My bad ultra--I didn't take the schedule into account. I think if the Phils are within 3-4 games by Labor Day, they have a shot to make it into the postseason.
The Brewers aren't that good, but they're still better than anyone else in the NL Central, sadly.
Put them in the NL East or NL West, and they're barely playing .500 baseball.
I wonder of the Cardinals will make Braden Looper and/or Brad Thompson available.
The Yankees, in my opinion, would be making a mistake by firing Torre and/or Cashman. They just have to suck it up and accept that they're probably not going to make the playoffs this year. It's not Torre's fault, and for the most part, it's not Cashman's fault, either.
There's no way he could have prepared for such a decimated pitching staff, and there's no way they could have foreseen such poor performances from Abreu, Cano, Damon, etc.
I think at the end of the day, the Brewers will barely be above .500 but that will still be good enough to win the NL Central. They'll be one and done in the playoffs (lack of pitching depth, suspect bullpen, etc.). I too see the Cards conducting a fire sale around July 31, as they could very well be 20 games below .500 by then. I also could see La Russa step down by then as he will be forced to get rid of his veterans. He should keep Looper and Wainwright as building blocks for a revamped rotation. For position players, keep Pujols and Duncan.
As for the Yankees, they will be a .500 team for the foreseeable future, unless they get younger and more athletic in a hurry.
I am from Central California. I am passionate about sports, particularly the NFL and NASCAR. My favorite teams are: Panthers (NFL), Lakers (NBA), Flyers (NHL), and Dodgers (MLB). I am also a Kevin Harvick fan in NASCAR. I am a Fresno State honk. (I'll admit it!) And I am also a fan of MMA. Jackie Robinson to this day represents what is right about baseball. I also enjoy discussing the relevant (and sometimes irrelevant) issues of the day pertaining to sports. I will never understand why televised poker is so popular. Who wants to see a bunch of people sitting around a table, muttering to themselves? I do my best to keep politics out of my sports discussions. That is why I recently created a nonsports blog, cencalscribe. blogspot.com. That is where I post my nonsports topics.
