Well, the moment of truth is nearly here for the 20 colts lining up in the Derby tomorrow, but it is upon G-t-W now though, as we layout our final analysis and picks for the race.
Where we left things off, we’ve narrowed down the field to the final three.
Big Brown
Colonel John
Ga.yego
So let’s get cracking then with our take on the favorite:
Big Brown – On paper and one-on-one, the apparent best horse in the field. Physically imposing, possessing of good early speed, but does not have to be in front to be successful, plus has the fastest time in the field. So what’s standing in his way? First, history. Horses with a 5-week layoff have only won once (Barbaro in ’06) in the last 60 years. Horses with only two prep races have only won twice (Sunny’s Halo in ’83 and Street Sense in ’07) in the last 55 years. And it’s been 93 years since a horse won with only three starts, albeit he will only be tenth one to try. Add that the fact that breaking from post 20 has led to only 1 winner in 15 tries, and you have a lot of trends to overcome. Finally, his pedigree has mostly speed and grass influences although there is a stamina boost deep in his dam’s side. All this adds up to our passing on him tomorrow. As we have seen many times, the best horse does not always win the Derby (Afleet Alex, Point Given and Holly Bull are recent, glaring examples). But we will label him, the horse we want to win. Why? He probably has the best shot at winning the Triple Crown, which at the end of the day is what we all want to see the most. So next up is…
Colonel John – Our #1 choice over the last few weeks, has showed the versatility and toughness to be deserve that spot. Anyone who saw the Santa Anita Derby will atest that he showed all the intangible needed to win this most difficult race, being boxed in and checked, then having to swing wide and restart his charge then finishing with a huge charge. So there is no doubt all the bumping and shuffling that always happens in this race will bother him. And his pedigree is a great early combination of speed on the sire sides and stamina from the dam’s side, so the mile and a quarter should be no issue. The cons… Like Big Brown, only has two preps and see above how those folks have fared. Also, has not raced on dirt yet although has been working strong. All and all, this is the horse that should win. But if we say should, that means that…
Ga.yego – Is the horse that will win and is also our Longshot of the Week. Crazy? Mostly yes, but hold on. First, he’s passed all the historical tests: 3 preps, less than 5 weeks rest, and already won on dirt. You will hear that his pedigree is bred to go a mile, and that is at first glance appears true, as his sire, ’92 BC Juv winner and 2yo Champion Gilden Time, brought the speed, as did his damsire, Gr-I winner Lost Code. But if you go back just a couple of generations, you will see a number of Triple Crown race winners and Eclipse Champions (Arts and Letter, Codex, Sword Dancer, Damascus, Native Dancer to name a few on both sides, and that will count for something as they come down the stretch. The key will be jockey Mike Smith getting him to break fast and come across quickly so he is not strung out halfway across the track around the first turn, then laying off four or five lengths off the front runners. The big drawback? Starters from post 19 are 0-for-26. Time to make some history. As I said, crazy but I just have a feeling...
And with that, I will bid you all farewell as I will be moving the blog to a new spot. Thanks for all your support and commentary, and hope to 'see you' at our new location: Gate to Wire. And good luck tomorrow.
Moving on to round 3, we have the group out of whom G-t-W believes will yield the winner. But the trio below, even though their victory would not be a surprise, won’t be it because:
Pyro – I’ve never liked his running style for the 20-horse Derby, as expect for the La Derby he is always seems to be either really far back and/or behind a wall of horses. I have a feeling he will be again on Saturday. It can be done (see Street Sense last year), but it is extremely difficult. Will come with a run late, but it will be too late when he breaks through.
Eight Belles – Has been running faster than a lot of the boys, and has a legitimate shot to be the first filly in 20 years, and fourth ever, to win the Derby. But the races that she has won most handily, she has already been broken clear at the top of the stretch, which I do not expect to happen unless she perhaps challenges the early speed, which would be unadvisable. I don’t see her them winning an all out battle down the stretch.
Denis of Cork – Looked good beating week fields and lost to an unimpressive bunch in Illinois. Would be looking for first two turn win. Was it the track? Was it the weight (only victory over a length was when carrying 117). All combined I think too many uncertainties pointing to not enough on Saturday.
US actions starts in Wednesday in Belmont Park this week in the Gr-III Westchester Handicap (3yo+, 8f).
Grasshopper, coming off a second and a first in the NO and Mineshaft ‘caps, looms large over the small field and should prevail. Last year’ Withers winner Divine Park, who last out broke through the gate in his first race back after a long injury layoff, and stakes winner Sightseeing, coming back himself from a 7+ month layoff, are his main threats.
Skipping to Sunday, we have the Gr-III Nassau County Breeders Cup Stakes (3yo f, 7f), held at Belmont Park, where Gr-I winner Irish Smoke will be making her long anticipated ’08. Her main challenge looks like local Carolyn’s Cat, last out winner of the Gr-III Cicada, and who should be on the front end early.
(updated 4/30)
Churchill Down kicks off their “Derby” festivities on Friday with five graded stakes, headlined by the Gr-I Kentucky Oaks.
First on tap is the Gr-IIIT Aegon Turf Sprint Stakes (3yo+, 5f), where Mr. Nightlinger, Indian Ashton and Salute the Count appear evenly matched and above the rest of the field.
Moving on to the Gr-II Louisville Stakes (3yo+, f&m, 8.5f), we have a class of some of the top older females, led by ’07 Champion Older Female Ginger Punch, looking to rebound from a dissapointing third in the Gr-I Apple Blossom last out, having lead the whole way but fading in the stretch. She is the class of the field, but will face a stiff challenge from two other multiple stakes winner’s looking to get back in gear, Lear’s Princess, who’s lost back to back turf stakes to Dreaming of Anna this year, and Kettleoneup, who was off the boards last out in the Apple Blossom.
Next up is the Gr-III Alysheba Stakes (3yo+, 8.f), featuring a group of the B-level handicap horses. Watch out for front running duel Jonesboro, recent Razorback Handicap winner, to steal the race if he is not challenged early. If not the returning Chelokee, out since last June with an ankle injury, will stalk the pace and take advantage.
That race will be followed by the Gr-IIIT Crown Royal American Turf Stakes (3yo, 8.5f). This evenly matched field will feature a group of colts that were on the Ky Derby trail at some point but did not quite measure, with some of them now turning to the turf in hope of better results. Halo Najib, who still may run in the Derby if there is one more defection, looks to have his best shot at a win in a while, having had his best recent race when second in the polytrack Lane’s End. But out to surprise again is Boss Latiffe, winner of the Transylvania Stakes, also on the polytrack, last out and one of the few coming in off a win. And keep watch on Cannonball, who owns a pair of wins on the grass, which is more than the others can say.
Finally, we have the Gr-I Kentucky Oaks (3yo, f, 9f). Presently, Eight Belles is being pointed toward the Kentucky Derby, but the final decision will be based on today’s post position draw. If she goes to the Oaks, she will be the one to beat, no doubt. If she bypasses the race, it is a whole new ballgame, where the quartet of Bsharpsonata, Pure Clan, Country Star and Proud Spell are all evenly matched. The best form of late has been shown by Bsharp’, whose second in the Ashland, where Proud Spell was third and Country Star fifth, broke a four race winning streak. Pure Clan meanwhile has lost back to back to Eight Belles, finishing third and second her last two tries. Ashland winner Little Belle will also run, but we buy that victory as a bit of a fluky steal. With all that said, do not be surprised if late running Golden Doc A, off back to back seconds in shorter distances, comes sweeping around to pass them all. The big “if” for her is that this will be her traditional dirt debut.
Then on Saturday, there are five more graded stakes in addition to the Kentucky Derby. First, the Gr-I Humana Distaff Handicap (3yo+, f&m, 7f) features some of the top sprinting ladies in the country, led by Sugar Swirl who has demolished the Florida sprint scene this spring and is on a 4 stakes win streak. But Gr-I winner Hystericalady will be tough to overcome, coming off a sharp, front runnig victory in the Azeri.
The Gr-II Churchill Downs Stakes (4yo+, 7f), features the return of the speedy Wanderin Boy in his first race since the BC Mile where he finished fourth. But the improving Noonmark, winner of the Gr-III Mr. Prospector, has won two in a row and will be hard to beat. And keep an eye on British invader Thousand Words , who scorched the track in his US debut, an allowance race last month.
Moving on to the sprinting fillies in the Gr-III La Troienne Stakes (3yo, f, 7.5f), Gr-II winner Game Face looks prime to score again, especially if American County, Secret Gypsy and Keep the Peace burn themselves in an early speed duel.
The Gr-IIIT Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (3yo+, f&m, 8f) will see former Eclipse champion Dreaming of Anna looking to score her third straight stakes race in '08. Going to the lead, she will control the pace and be hard to beat. But if anyone will, it will likely be former British racer Ventura, coming off a pair of impressive ungraded stakes wins over polytrack.
The final pre-Derby race will be the Gr-IT Woodford ReserveTurf Classic Stakes (3yo+, 9f), where Gr-I winner Einstein, first and second last out at the highest level, will be tough to conquer, coming in front of challengers Thorn Song and War M.onger.
Continuing the elimination rounds, we have the next tier. These all have legitimate shots, but G-t-W believes they’ll fall short because:
Court Vision – I really like the spirit and fight of this horse, as seen in his hard fought Remsen. But he has yet to win a race in which he is more than 5 lengths off the lead, which he will surely be in Kentucky. His racing style will play against him.
Smooth Air – Have a feeling he will miss the race, but if he does not, he has yet to win over two turns. Has beaten , as well as being defeated, by lesser competition.
Cool Coal Man – Ran faster as 2yo, seems to do best when closely pressing the pace, which will not do him any favors Saturday.
Tale of Ekati – The first of the ‘big ones’ to go. Needs perfect trip to win and has not won when racing further than third. Will be further back than that and have a feeling he’ll run into traffic. Plus slow Wood time.
Presently, below is the most likely list of the 20 starters for next Saturday’s Kentucky Derby:
Pyro
Tale of Ekati
Colonel John
Ga.yego
Big Brown
Z Humor
Monba
Court Vision
Z Fortune
Adriano
Recapturetheglory
Smooth Air
Cool Coal Man
Anak Nakal
Eight Belles (filly)
Cowboy Cal
Visionaire
Big Truck
Bob Black Jack
Denis of Cork
Of these, Smooth Air bears closest watching as he has recently run a fever and missed training, leaving his start in doubt. If he is withdrawn, Halo Najib is next in line in the earnings list.
Over the next few days, we will put some pre-race analysis, all leading up to the big day and the ‘eagerly’ anticipated G-t-W selection. So on that note, let’s eliminate a few that have little to no chance, Giacomo, Lil E Tee and Gato del Sol be damned:
Adriano, Cowboy Cal and Monba – Stick to the grass or synthetic track
Recapturetheglory – War Emblem you are not, not will you get such a trip
Bob Black Jack - ditto
Big Truck – Street Sense you are not, so Tampa does equal Kentucky
Z Fortune – 3 race losing streak about to go to 4
Z Humor, Anak Nakal and Halo Najib – 0 for ‘08 streak to remain intact
Visionaire – First longer-than-1-mile win won’t come Saturday.
We will continue to fine tune on Wednesday after the final draw is set.
In what is shaping up to be the best weekend of world wide racing we will see all year, every continent that we showcase on this site are holding some of the most prestigious races in their season featuring some of their respective top horses. Based on that we will be starting the international previews early, in order to also allow for a detailed build up to our big one, the Kentucky Derby this Saturday.
Meanwhile, the outstanding international action starts Wednesday, with the first of what will be five Gr-I’s alongside three Gr-II”s this week in Australia.
Action begins in Randwick, first in the Gr-I Australian Oaks (3yo, f, 2400m), where multiple Gr-I winner Zarita will look to further solidify her spot as the top filly in the country and will line up as the big favorite. Her main foe looks like NZ filly Boundless, the NZ Oaks winner and already victor over older horses, as well as SA Oaks winner Queen of Queens. Tune in later for a preview of the Gr-II Sapphire Stakes (3yo+, f&m, 1200m), also to be run that day.
Moving on to Saturday, all eyes at Randwick Racecourse will be on the Gr-I Champagne Stakes (3yo+, 1600m) as the undefeated Sebring will go for the Grand Slam for Two Year Olds, following his wins the last two weeks in the Golden Slipper and the Produce Stakes. The primary rival standing in his way will be All American, winner of Skyline Stakes, Produce place getter Samantha Miss, and perhaps Von Costa de Hero again. (Good luck to Sebring and hopefully it will be the first of many triple crowns we will see this year)
Following will be the Gr-I Sydney Cup (3yo+, 3200m), the two mile marathon being the 16th leg of the Australian Stayers Challenge. Cats Fun still tops the standing, with Young Centaur, Prize Lady, Tuesday Joy and the likely race favorite off his Chairman’s Handicap win last week, No Wine No Song, tied for second. His main foes will be The Chieftain (18th), a dismall 13th in the Chairman’s but very likely due to the heavy although having beaten No Wine’ when he took the Manion Cup, Adeleide Cup Lacey Underall (5th-t), NZ invader Pentathon, last out fifth in The BMW, and defending winner Count Tyrone.
Doncaster Handicap runner-up Casino Prince, George Ryder third place getter Gr-I winner Racing to Win and Phar Lap Stakes winner Acey Ducey will square in the Gr-I All Aged Stakes.
Doncaster Handicap winner Tuesday Joy headlines the Gr-I Queen Elizabeth Stakes (3yo+, 2000m), where he will battle NZ’s Australian Derby winner Nom Du Jeu. Defending race winner Desert War also will line up in what will be his last race before retiremente, last year’s version being the last time he came out on top.
Gr-I winner Camarilla looks the one to beat in the Gr-II Emancipation Stakes (3yo+, f&m, 1600m), and the we wrap up the weekend in Queensland with the Gr-II Hollindale Stakes (3yo+, 1800m), where the top two finishers in the Bright Shadow Quality Stakes, Vietnam and Lasoron top the field, the latter looking like the top choice over the longer course. But watch out for NZ’s Gr-I winner Mission Critical, who might be shipped out for this race.
Ryan's for Real springs a Bill Hartack Memorial Handicap surprise, taking the early lead and never looking back, as tough luck Fairbanks fought him around the turn but fell short again as he finishes second...
------------------
Breaking news - War Pass is out of the Derby and on the shelf indefinetely with an ankle fracture...
------------------
In the Bed o' Roses Handicap, Rite Moment continues her recent roll in aqueduct, pressing the pace throughout then drawing off before holding off Lady Marlboro. Golden Dawn closed to third but faded back coming home...
Behindatthebar stormed home with a powerful move to just catch front runner Samba Rooster and win the Lexington Stakes.
Longshot Big Glen came with a strong move but was boxed in down the stretch and lost his momentum, finishing fourth. None of the other favorites, Tomcito, Atoned, Racecar Rhapsody, were factors...
Derby Impact - Nothing except that all those that ran and were on the outside looking in still are. Behindatthebar might end up sneaking in, but don't expect a repeat performance.
Golden Velvet stalked front running Tessa Blue the whole way, then put her away after a stretch battle to win in the Sixty Sails Handicap...
Foxysox edges Black Mamba and I Can Too in the Santa Barbara Handicap, taking the lead midstretch then barely them off in the end. Immortelle was scratched...
And Stoneside was a big upset winner in the Sam Simeon Handicap...
(updated 4/20)
Sterwins, the longest shot in the field, came roaring from last place to shock in the Ben Ali Stakes, winning going away. Odds-on favorite Go Between rallied to finish second.
And wrapping up the weekend, Big Booster finally breaks through as he switches to turf and wins his first graded stakes when he easily wins the San Juan Capistrano. Defending race winner On The Acorn was third...
(updated 4/22)
In Puerto Rico yesterday, Gallant Ruler took the lead from the start and held of a tough challenge from favorite Dazzling Dr. Cevin to bring home the Clasico Jose de Diego.
Keenland’s Gr-IIIT Appalachian Stakes (3yo f, 8f) on Wednesday kicks off this week’s action, which will continue on Friday, still in Keenland, with the Gr-III Doubledogdare Stakes (4&up, f/m, 8.5f). Saturday will see six more graded stakes, led by the Gr-II Lexington Stakes (3yo, 8.5f), Aqueduct’s Gr-IIT Bed o' Roses Breeders Cup Handicap (3&up, f/m, 7f), Hawthorne’s Gr-III’s Bill Hartack Memorial (&up, 9f) and Sixty Sails Handicaps (3&up, f/m, 9f) and concluding with Santa Anita’s Gr-IIT Santa Barbara (4yo+, f/m, 10f) and Gr-IIIT San Simeon Handicaps (4yo+, 6.5f). Sunday action will feature the Gr-III Ben Ali Stakes (4yo+, 9f) in Keenland and the Gr-IIT San Juan Capistrano Invitational Handicap (4yo+, 14f) in Santa Anita.
Now kicking things off in the Appalachian, Miss Grillo Stakes winner Namaste's Wish will be making her ’08 debut and looks like the one to beat, but expect a tough challenge from UK import Sweepstake, Gr-III placed overseas and was a big winner of the Bedanken Stakes last out.
(updated 4/16)
The ‘weenkend’ action again kicks of on Friday and in Keenland with the Doubledogdare Stakes. The big favorite here should be Gr-I winner Panty Raid, making her ’08 debut and 2-2 for at this race track. She will be hard to beat, even though she is giving 6 lbs to the rest of the field.
The feature event this weekend is Saturday’s Lexington Stakes, which is the final chance for Derby hopefuls to earn graded earning. The quartet of horses to watch are Rushaway Stakes winner Big Glen, San Miguel Stakes winner Salute the Sarge, Peruvian invader Tomcito, fourth in the Florida Derby in his US debut, and Atoned, last out fourth in the Illinois Derby. The only Lexington winner to go on and win the Derby was Charismatic in 1999.
Moving east to Aqueduct, we have the Bed o' Roses Handicap, in which the resurgent Lady Dawn, winner of 3 of 4 since switching barns last year including the Barbara Ritchie Handicap last out, will clash with Distaff Breeders Cup Handicap winner Rite Moment, who is 4 of 5 this year. But they must watchout for Sabin ‘Cap winner Lady Marlboro.
The action then goes to Hawthorne and we start with the Bill Hartack Memorial Handicap, where a small but evenly matched field meets up. Multiple graded-stakes placed Fairbanks will be the likely favorite, looking for his first victory in a while, but watch out for front-running Good and Lucky to take a step up in class and perhaps steal the race.
The Sixty Sails cast will be led by stakes winners Tessa Blue and Golden Velvet, most recently second and third in the Rampart Handicap. But off to derail the might be Gr-III winner Cryptoquip, the only starter to have won at this distance so far.
Gr-I winner Double Trouble, last time out a third in the Santa Maria, figures to be the one to beat in the Santa Barbara, as we land in Santa Anita for the last two stakes of the day. Yet she should face a stiff challenge from Brazilian import Immortelle, who just missed out winning the Santa Ana Handicap last out in her second US race, as well as recent allowance winner Foxy Melody.
Surprise Hollywood Turf Express winner Unsual Suspect looks to take his second graded turf sprint in a row in the San Simeon, and will be challenged by stakes placed Council Member and Soul City Slew.
(updated 4/18)
Sunday, the Ben Ali Stakes in Keenland is looking like a showdown between Gulfstream Park Handicap winner Sir Whimsey and Sunshine Millions Classic victor, Go Between, second last time in the Santa Anita Derby.
The final weekend race will be the San Juan Capistrano Invitational Handicap, led by defending champion On the Acorn, looking to rebound from an off the board finish in the San Luis Rey, Shamdinan, a Gr-I winner in Europe but unplaced last out, and consistent Big Booster, still looking for his first stakes win though.
Puerto Rico’s Gr-I Clásico José de Diego (4yo+, imported, 8.5f) will be contested Monday.
Gr-I winners Storm Allied and DazzlingDr. Cevin are the top choices from a small field of six.
Fallout from this weekend in the Derby picture, leading to another shakeup of the Derby Ten:
Colonel John - Next start: Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs, May 3)
Big Brown - Next start: Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs, May 3)
Pyro – Next start: Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs, May 3)
Tale of Ekati - Next start: Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs, May 3)
Court Vision – Next start: Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs, May 3)
G.ayego – Next start: Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs, May 3)
Adriano – Next start: Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs, May 3)
Monba – Next start: Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs, May 3)
Cool Coal Man – Next start: Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs, May 3)
Smooth Air - Next start: Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs, May 3)
Now, on to some detail:
Pyro – His Blue Grass was so bad that we’ll give him a pass as he has done plenty up until now. Was it the polytrack? Who knows… He does not look as imposing as he once did, but no need to jump of the bandwagon yet.
G.ayego – After a hard fought second to Georgie Boy in the San Felipe, comes back on his dirt debut to win the Arkansas Derby in impressive fashion. Keep a close eye on him, as his close stalking style and likely hot pace in the Derby will bode well for him.
Monba – I reluctanly bring Monba to the list, as he did beat perhaps the deepest Derby prep field to date. Is he coming into his own or just sprung a surprise when the others did not fire? I think the latter, but we’ll see.
Cool Coal Man – Looked good until the final turn in the Blue Grass, then faded badly. Like Pyro, will attribute to polytrack, but serious questions are arising about his ability to go 1-1/4m.
Big Truck / Visionaire – Dissapointing in the Blue Grass (5th and 11th) and are on the outside looking in. Will need some defections to make the Derby. I think Visionaire is still a dark horse, while Big Truck’s TB Derby win seems even more like a one-shot wonder. It should be noted that Cool Coal Man and Cowboy Cal are also not on the top 20 in earnings, but there are enough defections expected to let them slide in.
Smooth Air – Cracks the list, because someone has to round it out. His second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby also makes him worthy of consideration
There is also word that Eight Belles, whose been toying with the fillies in 2008 and is the current Kentucky Oaks favorite, might head to the Derby instead.
This Saturday's Lexington Stakes is the last major prep and a number of contenders are likely to race as they try to earn that last bit of graded $$, so stay tuned.
I am a FOX Sports Blogger who hasn't yet written much of a bio yet. But as you can tell, I'm a horse racing aficionado... who also happens to love the Mets and NY Giants (not from NY, but thanks for asking)
