Well, the moment of truth is nearly here for the 20 colts lining up in the Derby tomorrow, but it is upon G-t-W now though, as we layout our final analysis and picks for the race.
Where we left things off, we’ve narrowed down the field to the final three.
Big Brown
Colonel John
Ga.yego
So let’s get cracking then with our take on the favorite:
Big Brown – On paper and one-on-one, the apparent best horse in the field. Physically imposing, possessing of good early speed, but does not have to be in front to be successful, plus has the fastest time in the field. So what’s standing in his way? First, history. Horses with a 5-week layoff have only won once (Barbaro in ’06) in the last 60 years. Horses with only two prep races have only won twice (Sunny’s Halo in ’83 and Street Sense in ’07) in the last 55 years. And it’s been 93 years since a horse won with only three starts, albeit he will only be tenth one to try. Add that the fact that breaking from post 20 has led to only 1 winner in 15 tries, and you have a lot of trends to overcome. Finally, his pedigree has mostly speed and grass influences although there is a stamina boost deep in his dam’s side. All this adds up to our passing on him tomorrow. As we have seen many times, the best horse does not always win the Derby (Afleet Alex, Point Given and Holly Bull are recent, glaring examples). But we will label him, the horse we want to win. Why? He probably has the best shot at winning the Triple Crown, which at the end of the day is what we all want to see the most. So next up is…
Colonel John – Our #1 choice over the last few weeks, has showed the versatility and toughness to be deserve that spot. Anyone who saw the Santa Anita Derby will atest that he showed all the intangible needed to win this most difficult race, being boxed in and checked, then having to swing wide and restart his charge then finishing with a huge charge. So there is no doubt all the bumping and shuffling that always happens in this race will bother him. And his pedigree is a great early combination of speed on the sire sides and stamina from the dam’s side, so the mile and a quarter should be no issue. The cons… Like Big Brown, only has two preps and see above how those folks have fared. Also, has not raced on dirt yet although has been working strong. All and all, this is the horse that should win. But if we say should, that means that…
Ga.yego – Is the horse that will win and is also our Longshot of the Week. Crazy? Mostly yes, but hold on. First, he’s passed all the historical tests: 3 preps, less than 5 weeks rest, and already won on dirt. You will hear that his pedigree is bred to go a mile, and that is at first glance appears true, as his sire, ’92 BC Juv winner and 2yo Champion Gilden Time, brought the speed, as did his damsire, Gr-I winner Lost Code. But if you go back just a couple of generations, you will see a number of Triple Crown race winners and Eclipse Champions (Arts and Letter, Codex, Sword Dancer, Damascus, Native Dancer to name a few on both sides, and that will count for something as they come down the stretch. The key will be jockey Mike Smith getting him to break fast and come across quickly so he is not strung out halfway across the track around the first turn, then laying off four or five lengths off the front runners. The big drawback? Starters from post 19 are 0-for-26. Time to make some history. As I said, crazy but I just have a feeling...
And with that, I will bid you all farewell as I will be moving the blog to a new spot. Thanks for all your support and commentary, and hope to 'see you' at our new location: Gate to Wire. And good luck tomorrow.
Divine Park, last year a promising 3yo before injury sent him to the sidelines, ran midpack before unleashed a sizzling move that sent him to the front as they rounded the last turn then drew off for an almost record-equaling perfomance in the Westchester Handicap. Odds-on favorite Grasshopper made his move at the same time but could not keep up and finished second.
(AP Photo/New York Racing Association, Adam Coglianese)
Moving on to round 3, we have the group out of whom G-t-W believes will yield the winner. But the trio below, even though their victory would not be a surprise, won’t be it because:
Pyro – I’ve never liked his running style for the 20-horse Derby, as expect for the La Derby he is always seems to be either really far back and/or behind a wall of horses. I have a feeling he will be again on Saturday. It can be done (see Street Sense last year), but it is extremely difficult. Will come with a run late, but it will be too late when he breaks through.
Eight Belles – Has been running faster than a lot of the boys, and has a legitimate shot to be the first filly in 20 years, and fourth ever, to win the Derby. But the races that she has won most handily, she has already been broken clear at the top of the stretch, which I do not expect to happen unless she perhaps challenges the early speed, which would be unadvisable. I don’t see her them winning an all out battle down the stretch.
Denis of Cork – Looked good beating week fields and lost to an unimpressive bunch in Illinois. Would be looking for first two turn win. Was it the track? Was it the weight (only victory over a length was when carrying 117). All combined I think too many uncertainties pointing to not enough on Saturday.
US actions starts in Wednesday in Belmont Park this week in the Gr-III Westchester Handicap (3yo+, 8f).
Grasshopper, coming off a second and a first in the NO and Mineshaft ‘caps, looms large over the small field and should prevail. Last year’ Withers winner Divine Park, who last out broke through the gate in his first race back after a long injury layoff, and stakes winner Sightseeing, coming back himself from a 7+ month layoff, are his main threats.
Skipping to Sunday, we have the Gr-III Nassau County Breeders Cup Stakes (3yo f, 7f), held at Belmont Park, where Gr-I winner Irish Smoke will be making her long anticipated ’08. Her main challenge looks like local Carolyn’s Cat, last out winner of the Gr-III Cicada, and who should be on the front end early.
(updated 4/30)
Churchill Down kicks off their “Derby” festivities on Friday with five graded stakes, headlined by the Gr-I Kentucky Oaks.
First on tap is the Gr-IIIT Aegon Turf Sprint Stakes (3yo+, 5f), where Mr. Nightlinger, Indian Ashton and Salute the Count appear evenly matched and above the rest of the field.
Moving on to the Gr-II Louisville Stakes (3yo+, f&m, 8.5f), we have a class of some of the top older females, led by ’07 Champion Older Female Ginger Punch, looking to rebound from a dissapointing third in the Gr-I Apple Blossom last out, having lead the whole way but fading in the stretch. She is the class of the field, but will face a stiff challenge from two other multiple stakes winner’s looking to get back in gear, Lear’s Princess, who’s lost back to back turf stakes to Dreaming of Anna this year, and Kettleoneup, who was off the boards last out in the Apple Blossom.
Next up is the Gr-III Alysheba Stakes (3yo+, 8.f), featuring a group of the B-level handicap horses. Watch out for front running duel Jonesboro, recent Razorback Handicap winner, to steal the race if he is not challenged early. If not the returning Chelokee, out since last June with an ankle injury, will stalk the pace and take advantage.
That race will be followed by the Gr-IIIT Crown Royal American Turf Stakes (3yo, 8.5f). This evenly matched field will feature a group of colts that were on the Ky Derby trail at some point but did not quite measure, with some of them now turning to the turf in hope of better results. Halo Najib, who still may run in the Derby if there is one more defection, looks to have his best shot at a win in a while, having had his best recent race when second in the polytrack Lane’s End. But out to surprise again is Boss Latiffe, winner of the Transylvania Stakes, also on the polytrack, last out and one of the few coming in off a win. And keep watch on Cannonball, who owns a pair of wins on the grass, which is more than the others can say.
Finally, we have the Gr-I Kentucky Oaks (3yo, f, 9f). Presently, Eight Belles is being pointed toward the Kentucky Derby, but the final decision will be based on today’s post position draw. If she goes to the Oaks, she will be the one to beat, no doubt. If she bypasses the race, it is a whole new ballgame, where the quartet of Bsharpsonata, Pure Clan, Country Star and Proud Spell are all evenly matched. The best form of late has been shown by Bsharp’, whose second in the Ashland, where Proud Spell was third and Country Star fifth, broke a four race winning streak. Pure Clan meanwhile has lost back to back to Eight Belles, finishing third and second her last two tries. Ashland winner Little Belle will also run, but we buy that victory as a bit of a fluky steal. With all that said, do not be surprised if late running Golden Doc A, off back to back seconds in shorter distances, comes sweeping around to pass them all. The big “if” for her is that this will be her traditional dirt debut.
Then on Saturday, there are five more graded stakes in addition to the Kentucky Derby. First, the Gr-I Humana Distaff Handicap (3yo+, f&m, 7f) features some of the top sprinting ladies in the country, led by Sugar Swirl who has demolished the Florida sprint scene this spring and is on a 4 stakes win streak. But Gr-I winner Hystericalady will be tough to overcome, coming off a sharp, front runnig victory in the Azeri.
The Gr-II Churchill Downs Stakes (4yo+, 7f), features the return of the speedy Wanderin Boy in his first race since the BC Mile where he finished fourth. But the improving Noonmark, winner of the Gr-III Mr. Prospector, has won two in a row and will be hard to beat. And keep an eye on British invader Thousand Words , who scorched the track in his US debut, an allowance race last month.
Moving on to the sprinting fillies in the Gr-III La Troienne Stakes (3yo, f, 7.5f), Gr-II winner Game Face looks prime to score again, especially if American County, Secret Gypsy and Keep the Peace burn themselves in an early speed duel.
The Gr-IIIT Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (3yo+, f&m, 8f) will see former Eclipse champion Dreaming of Anna looking to score her third straight stakes race in '08. Going to the lead, she will control the pace and be hard to beat. But if anyone will, it will likely be former British racer Ventura, coming off a pair of impressive ungraded stakes wins over polytrack.
The final pre-Derby race will be the Gr-IT Woodford ReserveTurf Classic Stakes (3yo+, 9f), where Gr-I winner Einstein, first and second last out at the highest level, will be tough to conquer, coming in front of challengers Thorn Song and War M.onger.
Continuing the elimination rounds, we have the next tier. These all have legitimate shots, but G-t-W believes they’ll fall short because:
Court Vision – I really like the spirit and fight of this horse, as seen in his hard fought Remsen. But he has yet to win a race in which he is more than 5 lengths off the lead, which he will surely be in Kentucky. His racing style will play against him.
Smooth Air – Have a feeling he will miss the race, but if he does not, he has yet to win over two turns. Has beaten , as well as being defeated, by lesser competition.
Cool Coal Man – Ran faster as 2yo, seems to do best when closely pressing the pace, which will not do him any favors Saturday.
Tale of Ekati – The first of the ‘big ones’ to go. Needs perfect trip to win and has not won when racing further than third. Will be further back than that and have a feeling he’ll run into traffic. Plus slow Wood time.
Presently, below is the most likely list of the 20 starters for next Saturday’s Kentucky Derby:
Pyro
Tale of Ekati
Colonel John
Ga.yego
Big Brown
Z Humor
Monba
Court Vision
Z Fortune
Adriano
Recapturetheglory
Smooth Air
Cool Coal Man
Anak Nakal
Eight Belles (filly)
Cowboy Cal
Visionaire
Big Truck
Bob Black Jack
Denis of Cork
Of these, Smooth Air bears closest watching as he has recently run a fever and missed training, leaving his start in doubt. If he is withdrawn, Halo Najib is next in line in the earnings list.
Over the next few days, we will put some pre-race analysis, all leading up to the big day and the ‘eagerly’ anticipated G-t-W selection. So on that note, let’s eliminate a few that have little to no chance, Giacomo, Lil E Tee and Gato del Sol be damned:
Adriano, Cowboy Cal and Monba – Stick to the grass or synthetic track
Recapturetheglory – War Emblem you are not, not will you get such a trip
Bob Black Jack - ditto
Big Truck – Street Sense you are not, so Tampa does equal Kentucky
Z Fortune – 3 race losing streak about to go to 4
Z Humor, Anak Nakal and Halo Najib – 0 for ‘08 streak to remain intact
Visionaire – First longer-than-1-mile win won’t come Saturday.
We will continue to fine tune on Wednesday after the final draw is set.
Harlem Rocker caught front running J Be K midstretch then pulled away to easily win the Withers Stakes and remain a perfect 3-3...
Surf Cat closed strongly to nip Desert Code in the LeRoy Handicap...
Monterrey Jazz blitzed the field in the Texas Mile, winning in an 8 length rout...
Criminologist keeps on trucking, going from last to first in winning the Beauga.y with a strong stretch run...
And closing out the day, Pepper's Pride join the rank of track immortals by winning her 16 straight in the Foutz Distaff in easy manner. Number 17, the sole modern NA record and a tie of the modern wolrd record is up next...
(updated 4/28) On Sunday, Silver Foot stalked a slow early pace, took control at the top of the stretch and won the Fort Marcy Handicap easily...
Meanwhile, Lava Man's return did not go as planned as Mr. Wolverine came out on top. Lava' finished third, his better days now clearly behind the former California champ...
Communique springs a mild upset in yesterday's Bewitch Stakes, closing strongly to corral pace setter Tejida near the end. Viva La Flag was scratched before the race...
Today, Dancing Forever, running midpack, closed strungly down the stretch to corral Drilling for Oil, who had stalked a super slow pace, to win the Elkhorn Stakes. Longshot choice Brass Hat had a terrible trip, breaking slowly and starting slow, then ran a wide trip the whole way, but still closed gamely to finish third...
Light action on tap this weekend in advance of next weekend’s Kentucky Derby, with only one Gr-II and three Gr-III’s scheduled, as well as a pair of notable horses taking the track in other events.
Three of the stakes will be Aqueduct, starting Saturday with the Gr-III Withers Stakes (3yo, 8f). Bay Shore Stakes winner J Be K will be the one to beat after his recent romp and his now 3-3 record around the local one-turn races.
Next up is the Gr-IIIT Beaug.ay Handicap (3&up, f/m, 8.5f) on Saturday, where Criminologist will be making her '08 debut and is poised to take what would be her fifth straight win and seventh out of 9. Her main competition looks like Sweet Ransom, last out a second in the Gr-III Gentner Handicap in December.
The best race of the day may be at Lone Star Park, where the Gr-III Texas Mile Stakes (3yo+, 8f) will showcase speedy Strub Stakes winner Monterey Jazz, who last out seemed poised to take the Santa Anita Handicap but faded after opening up a huge lead but through blitzing fractions. His main opposition will be multiple stakes winners Beta Capo, Zanjero, and Going Ballistic.
Moving on to Hollywood Park, we have the Gr-II Mervyn LeRoy Handicap where '06 race winner and multiple stakes winner Surf Cat is the main standout. Challenging him and looking to turn their fortunes around are Desert Code, millionaire Buzzard's Bay, hoping to score his first win in quite a while, and San Pasqual winner Zappa, who's been unplaced since that victory earlier in the year.
The final race of note on Saturday will be SunRay Park’s ungraded Helen Foutz Distaff Handicap (4yo+, 6.5), where undefeated 5yo mare Pepper’s Pride will go for a tie of the “modern” North American consecutive wins record of 16. The record is currently co-held by 1948 Triple Crown winner Citation, 2005 & 2006 Horse of the Year Cigar, 1990 Santa Anita Derby winner Mister Frisky* and Hallowed Dreams, a Louisiana mare that won her first 16 races in the late 90’s. For a listing of the world’s longest wins by thoroughbreds, click here.
*G-t-W editorial – I have always been a fan of the underrated Mister Frisky, as he seemed to have a great shot at becoming only the second PR-based horse to win the Kentucky Derby after the great Bold Forbes in 1976, and breaking the NA consecutive wins record on the biggest stage. And I have been waiting a long time to put this on print: Gary Stevens, you are truly a Hall of Fame jockey and I loved you in Seabiscuit, but your rides in the Derby and Preakness that year were some of the most #### poor ones I have ever seen. Why you sent him on an unnecessary suicidal speed duel in the Derby when he had shown in SA Derby that he could come off the pace, thereby cooking him early and ruining his chances, is beyond me. But almost worse was your gun-shy response in the Preakness, when the front runner was going at a snail’s pace and it was then a perfect time to send ‘Frisky to lead instead of holding back, but you seem afraid of repeating your Derby miscalation, thereby setting up the race for the closers. Not to say he would have necessarily won either, but both times anyone looking at the race knew he had no chance after the first half mile… There, I said it. Good to finally get it out.
Tune in later for a preview of Aqueduct stakes, Sunday's Gr-IIIT Fort Marcy Handicap (3yo+, 8.5f).
Finally, Sunday will also be the return of 7yo multiple Gr-I winner Lava Man in the ungraded Khaled Stakes, a race he won back in 2006. Lava Man has been on an extended break since finishing sixth in the Cal Cup Classic in November of last year. Good luck to the ‘old man.’
US action starts early again this week with the Gr-IIIT Bewitch Stakes (4yo+, f/m, 12f) in Keenland to be Thursday, which is a wide-open affair. Top contenders are Viva La Flag and Final Refrain, second and third in a recent local allowance, Gr-III placed Tejida or potential longshot Eres Magica, a Gr-I winner in Chile.
Friday features the Gr-IIT Elkhorn Stakes (4yo+, 12f), which is the final stakes race of the Keenland spring meet. Gr-I winner Brass Hat, whose been battling the top handicap horses in the country, will switch to turf for the first time in four years as he looks for his first win since last September. But in his way will be the top two finishers from last month’s Gr-IIT Mac Diarmida Handicap, Stream of Gold and True Cause, and who are used to running these longer races. ‘Gold will be yielding 4lbs to both, so he will have his work cut out. Also contending will be Gr-III Sycamore Stakes winner Transduction Gold, making his ’08 debut, and late running Drilling for Oil.
Tune in later for a preview of the weekend action.
I am a FOX Sports Blogger who hasn't yet written much of a bio yet. But as you can tell, I'm a horse racing aficionado... who also happens to love the Mets and NY Giants (not from NY, but thanks for asking)
