Well, the moment of truth is nearly here for the 20 colts lining up in the Derby tomorrow, but it is upon G-t-W now though, as we layout our final analysis and picks for the race. 

Where we left things off, we’ve narrowed down the field to the final three.

• Big Brown
• Colonel John
• Ga.yego

So let’s get cracking then with our take on the favorite:

• Big Brown – On paper and one-on-one, the apparent best horse in the field.  Physically imposing, possessing of good early speed, but does not have to be in front to be successful, plus has the fastest time in the field. So what’s standing in his way?  First, history.  Horses with a 5-week layoff have only won once (Barbaro in ’06) in the last 60 years.  Horses with only two prep races have only won twice (Sunny’s Halo in ’83 and Street Sense in ’07) in the last 55 years.  And it’s been 93 years since a horse won with only three starts, albeit he will only be tenth one to try.  Add that the fact that breaking from post 20 has led to only 1 winner in 15 tries, and you have a lot of trends to overcome.  Finally, his pedigree has mostly speed and grass influences although there is a stamina boost deep in his dam’s side.  All this adds up to our passing on him tomorrow.  As we have seen many times, the best horse does not always win the Derby (Afleet Alex, Point Given and Holly Bull are recent, glaring examples).  But we will label him, the horse we want to win. Why? He probably has the best shot at winning the Triple Crown, which at the end of the day is what we all want to see the most.  So next up is…

• Colonel John – Our #1 choice over the last few weeks, has showed the versatility and toughness to be deserve that spot.  Anyone who saw the Santa Anita Derby will atest that he showed all the intangible needed to win this most difficult race, being boxed in and checked, then having to swing wide and restart his charge then finishing with a huge charge. So there is no doubt all the bumping and shuffling that always happens in this race will bother him.  And his pedigree is a great early combination of speed on the sire sides and stamina from the dam’s side, so the mile and a quarter should be no issue.  The cons… Like Big Brown, only has two preps and see above how those folks have fared.  Also, has not raced on dirt yet although has been working strong.  All and all, this is the horse that should win.  But if we say should, that means that…

• Ga.yego – Is the horse that will win and is also our Longshot of the Week. Crazy? Mostly yes, but hold on.  First, he’s passed all the historical tests: 3 preps, less than 5 weeks rest, and already won on dirt. You will hear that his pedigree is bred to go a mile, and that is at first glance appears true, as his sire, ’92 BC Juv winner and 2yo Champion Gilden Time, brought the speed, as did his damsire, Gr-I winner Lost Code.  But if you go back just a couple of generations, you will see a number of Triple Crown race winners and Eclipse Champions (Arts and Letter, Codex, Sword Dancer, Damascus, Native Dancer to name a few on both sides, and that will count for something as they come down the stretch.  The key will be jockey Mike Smith getting him to break fast and come across quickly so he is not strung out halfway across the track around the first turn, then laying off four or five lengths off the front runners.  The big drawback? Starters from post 19 are 0-for-26.  Time to make some history. As I said, crazy but I just have a feeling...

And with that, I will bid you all farewell as I will be moving the blog to a new spot.  Thanks for all your support and commentary, and hope to 'see you' at our new location: Gate to Wire.  And good luck tomorrow. 

Before we tackle this week’s choice, let’s recap last week’s Longshot Big Glen in the Lexington Stakes. Sent off at odds of 23-1, ‘Glen ran in the front part of the middle group and started his move around as they started to enter the final turn.  As they entered the stretch he was full of run and seemed poised to blow past the tiring leaders.  But his ground saving rail trip was also his downfall, as he found himself boxed in and no way out as they neared midstretch.  Forced to slow down his momentum, he could not reaccelerate and ended up a game fourth.

This week we will focus on the Gr-IIT Elkhorn Stakes and our pick this week, 7yo Brass Hat, who is presently tied for seventh choice in the morning line at 12-1.

The former Gr-I winner will be looking for his first win since taking the Mass Cap last September and has been duking it out with some of the top older horses in the country.  His last three efforts in the Gr-II Clark, Gr-I Donn and Gr-II NO Handicap have led to a second and two fourths, which is good enough to give this group a run for their money.  The big unknown is the turf, in which he has not run in over four years.  But his sire Prized was a Gr-I grass winner, so the ability is in there somewhere.  Couple all this and the 2-4lbs he will be getting from the favorites, which will be a big factor in the 1-1/2m race and you have Brass Hat as the Honey Moon Summer Ale* Longshot of the Week.

*Not associated with nor endorsed by the Blue Moon Brewing Co. That’s just the type of the last brand of beer I bought yesterday.

Welcome to yet another new feature at G-t-W, the (Beer to be determined) Longshot of the Week.  Hopefully, this one will have a longer shelf life than the others.  Each week we will scour the stakes line up to find that overlooked longshot that just might spring a victory… And please, no comments on the success of our attempts at this last year…

This week’s focus will be on the Gr-II Lexington Stakes to be run on Keenland’s polytrack.  And who do we like to spring the upset? How about Rushaway Stakes winner Big Glen, currently tied for the seventh choice on the morning line out a field of 11…

Although stepping up considerably in class, he is coming off a sharp win in the Rushaway coming in at a respectable 1:44.55.  To put it in perspective, that is about the same time pre-race favorite Atoned ran when he finished second in the Tampa Bay Derby and just one tenth of Pyro’s Louisiana Derby time.  That win was also his third over the polytrack, something his less-than-awe inspiring rivals cannot claim, most actually looking to get on track.

Meanwhile, his sire Cactus Ridge was an undefeated 2yo until an injury cut his career short and who has the bloodline of top sires Hennessy and Storm Cat behind him, while his dam Zamba Canuta comes from a line that favors grass racing, which has translated into poly likeness… so the talent is in the genes.

So for all the above, we make Big Glen the Red Hook ESB* Longshot of the Week.

*Not associated with nor endorsed by the Redhook Ale Brewery. That’s just the type of the last brand of beer I bought.