Well, the moment of truth is nearly here for the 20 colts lining up in the Derby tomorrow, but it is upon G-t-W now though, as we layout our final analysis and picks for the race. 

Where we left things off, we’ve narrowed down the field to the final three.

• Big Brown
• Colonel John
• Ga.yego

So let’s get cracking then with our take on the favorite:

• Big Brown – On paper and one-on-one, the apparent best horse in the field.  Physically imposing, possessing of good early speed, but does not have to be in front to be successful, plus has the fastest time in the field. So what’s standing in his way?  First, history.  Horses with a 5-week layoff have only won once (Barbaro in ’06) in the last 60 years.  Horses with only two prep races have only won twice (Sunny’s Halo in ’83 and Street Sense in ’07) in the last 55 years.  And it’s been 93 years since a horse won with only three starts, albeit he will only be tenth one to try.  Add that the fact that breaking from post 20 has led to only 1 winner in 15 tries, and you have a lot of trends to overcome.  Finally, his pedigree has mostly speed and grass influences although there is a stamina boost deep in his dam’s side.  All this adds up to our passing on him tomorrow.  As we have seen many times, the best horse does not always win the Derby (Afleet Alex, Point Given and Holly Bull are recent, glaring examples).  But we will label him, the horse we want to win. Why? He probably has the best shot at winning the Triple Crown, which at the end of the day is what we all want to see the most.  So next up is…

• Colonel John – Our #1 choice over the last few weeks, has showed the versatility and toughness to be deserve that spot.  Anyone who saw the Santa Anita Derby will atest that he showed all the intangible needed to win this most difficult race, being boxed in and checked, then having to swing wide and restart his charge then finishing with a huge charge. So there is no doubt all the bumping and shuffling that always happens in this race will bother him.  And his pedigree is a great early combination of speed on the sire sides and stamina from the dam’s side, so the mile and a quarter should be no issue.  The cons… Like Big Brown, only has two preps and see above how those folks have fared.  Also, has not raced on dirt yet although has been working strong.  All and all, this is the horse that should win.  But if we say should, that means that…

• Ga.yego – Is the horse that will win and is also our Longshot of the Week. Crazy? Mostly yes, but hold on.  First, he’s passed all the historical tests: 3 preps, less than 5 weeks rest, and already won on dirt. You will hear that his pedigree is bred to go a mile, and that is at first glance appears true, as his sire, ’92 BC Juv winner and 2yo Champion Gilden Time, brought the speed, as did his damsire, Gr-I winner Lost Code.  But if you go back just a couple of generations, you will see a number of Triple Crown race winners and Eclipse Champions (Arts and Letter, Codex, Sword Dancer, Damascus, Native Dancer to name a few on both sides, and that will count for something as they come down the stretch.  The key will be jockey Mike Smith getting him to break fast and come across quickly so he is not strung out halfway across the track around the first turn, then laying off four or five lengths off the front runners.  The big drawback? Starters from post 19 are 0-for-26.  Time to make some history. As I said, crazy but I just have a feeling...

And with that, I will bid you all farewell as I will be moving the blog to a new spot.  Thanks for all your support and commentary, and hope to 'see you' at our new location: Gate to Wire.  And good luck tomorrow.