Well, the moment of truth is nearly here for the 20 colts lining up in the Derby tomorrow, but it is upon G-t-W now though, as we layout our final analysis and picks for the race. 

Where we left things off, we’ve narrowed down the field to the final three.

• Big Brown
• Colonel John
• Ga.yego

So let’s get cracking then with our take on the favorite:

• Big Brown – On paper and one-on-one, the apparent best horse in the field.  Physically imposing, possessing of good early speed, but does not have to be in front to be successful, plus has the fastest time in the field. So what’s standing in his way?  First, history.  Horses with a 5-week layoff have only won once (Barbaro in ’06) in the last 60 years.  Horses with only two prep races have only won twice (Sunny’s Halo in ’83 and Street Sense in ’07) in the last 55 years.  And it’s been 93 years since a horse won with only three starts, albeit he will only be tenth one to try.  Add that the fact that breaking from post 20 has led to only 1 winner in 15 tries, and you have a lot of trends to overcome.  Finally, his pedigree has mostly speed and grass influences although there is a stamina boost deep in his dam’s side.  All this adds up to our passing on him tomorrow.  As we have seen many times, the best horse does not always win the Derby (Afleet Alex, Point Given and Holly Bull are recent, glaring examples).  But we will label him, the horse we want to win. Why? He probably has the best shot at winning the Triple Crown, which at the end of the day is what we all want to see the most.  So next up is…

• Colonel John – Our #1 choice over the last few weeks, has showed the versatility and toughness to be deserve that spot.  Anyone who saw the Santa Anita Derby will atest that he showed all the intangible needed to win this most difficult race, being boxed in and checked, then having to swing wide and restart his charge then finishing with a huge charge. So there is no doubt all the bumping and shuffling that always happens in this race will bother him.  And his pedigree is a great early combination of speed on the sire sides and stamina from the dam’s side, so the mile and a quarter should be no issue.  The cons… Like Big Brown, only has two preps and see above how those folks have fared.  Also, has not raced on dirt yet although has been working strong.  All and all, this is the horse that should win.  But if we say should, that means that…

• Ga.yego – Is the horse that will win and is also our Longshot of the Week. Crazy? Mostly yes, but hold on.  First, he’s passed all the historical tests: 3 preps, less than 5 weeks rest, and already won on dirt. You will hear that his pedigree is bred to go a mile, and that is at first glance appears true, as his sire, ’92 BC Juv winner and 2yo Champion Gilden Time, brought the speed, as did his damsire, Gr-I winner Lost Code.  But if you go back just a couple of generations, you will see a number of Triple Crown race winners and Eclipse Champions (Arts and Letter, Codex, Sword Dancer, Damascus, Native Dancer to name a few on both sides, and that will count for something as they come down the stretch.  The key will be jockey Mike Smith getting him to break fast and come across quickly so he is not strung out halfway across the track around the first turn, then laying off four or five lengths off the front runners.  The big drawback? Starters from post 19 are 0-for-26.  Time to make some history. As I said, crazy but I just have a feeling...

And with that, I will bid you all farewell as I will be moving the blog to a new spot.  Thanks for all your support and commentary, and hope to 'see you' at our new location: Gate to Wire.  And good luck tomorrow. 

World's top ranked sprinter Sacred Kingdom returned to the winner's circle when taking home the initial Gr-II Gome Sprint.   The race marked his last planned appearance of the 07-08 HK racing season, and is virtually assured being crowned the country's champion sprinter.

Details and images to come.  And tune in Sunday for the Japanese recap...

Gris de Gris produced a mild upset when kicking off the European festivities earlier today in winning the Gr-II Prix du Muguet, stalking a slow early pace then blowing past the leader at the top of the stretch, drawing off to an easy, albeit slow win. Turfrose closed from the back of the pack to finish second and favorite Spirito Del Vento third.

Tune in later for details, images and on Saturday for the next recap.

Divine Park, last year a promising 3yo before injury sent him to the sidelines, ran midpack before unleashed a sizzling move that sent him to the front as they rounded the last turn then drew off for an almost record-equaling perfomance in the Westchester Handicap.  Odds-on favorite Grasshopper made his move at the same time but could not keep up and finished second.

(AP Photo/New York Racing Association, Adam Coglianese)

Tune in Friday for the next recap.

After yesterday’s second cut, we are left with:

• Pyro
• Colonel John
• Ga.yego
• Big Brown
• Eight Belles (filly)
• Denis of Cork

US actions starts in Wednesday in Belmont Park this week in the Gr-III Westchester Handicap (3yo+, 8f). 

Grasshopper, coming off a second and a first in the NO and Mineshaft ‘caps, looms large over the small field and should prevail.  Last year’ Withers winner Divine Park, who last out broke through the gate in his first race back after a long injury layoff, and stakes winner Sightseeing, coming back himself from a 7+ month layoff, are his main threats.

Skipping to Sunday, we have the Gr-III Nassau County Breeders Cup Stakes (3yo f, 7f), held at Belmont Park, where Gr-I winner Irish Smoke will be making her long anticipated ’08.  Her main challenge looks like local Carolyn’s Cat, last out winner of the Gr-III Cicada, and who should be on the front end early.

(updated 4/30)

Churchill Down kicks off their “Derby” festivities on Friday with five graded stakes, headlined by the Gr-I Kentucky Oaks.

First on tap is the Gr-IIIT Aegon Turf Sprint Stakes (3yo+, 5f), where Mr. Nightlinger, Indian Ashton and Salute the Count appear evenly matched and above the rest of the field.

Moving on to the Gr-II Louisville Stakes (3yo+, f&m, 8.5f), we have a class of some of the top older females, led by ’07 Champion Older Female Ginger Punch, looking to rebound from a dissapointing third in the Gr-I Apple Blossom last out, having lead the whole way but fading in the stretch.  She is the class of the field, but will face a stiff challenge from two other multiple stakes winner’s looking to get back in gear, Lear’s Princess, who’s lost back to back turf stakes to Dreaming of Anna this year, and Kettleoneup, who was off the boards last out in the Apple Blossom.

Next up is the Gr-III Alysheba Stakes (3yo+, 8.f), featuring a group of the B-level handicap horses.  Watch out for front running duel Jonesboro, recent Razorback Handicap winner, to steal the race if he is not challenged early.  If not the returning Chelokee, out since last June with an ankle injury, will stalk the pace and take advantage.

That race will be followed by the Gr-IIIT Crown Royal American Turf Stakes (3yo, 8.5f). This evenly matched field will feature a group of colts that were on the Ky Derby trail at some point but did not quite measure, with some of them now turning to the turf in hope of better results. Halo Najib, who still may run in the Derby if there is one more defection, looks to have his best shot at a win in a while, having had his best recent race when second in the polytrack Lane’s End.  But out to surprise again is Boss Latiffe, winner of the Transylvania Stakes, also on the polytrack, last out and one of the few coming in off a win.  And keep watch on Cannonball, who owns a pair of wins on the grass, which is more than the others can say.

Finally, we have the Gr-I Kentucky Oaks (3yo, f, 9f).  Presently, Eight Belles is being pointed toward the Kentucky Derby, but the final decision will be based on today’s post position draw.  If she goes to the Oaks, she will be the one to beat, no doubt.  If she bypasses the race, it is a whole new ballgame, where the quartet of Bsharpsonata, Pure Clan, Country Star and Proud Spell are all evenly matched.  The best form of late has been shown by Bsharp’, whose second in the Ashland, where Proud Spell was third and Country Star fifth, broke a four race winning streak.  Pure Clan meanwhile has lost back to back to Eight Belles, finishing third and second her last two tries.  Ashland winner Little Belle will also run, but we buy that victory as a bit of a fluky steal.   With all that said, do not be surprised if late running Golden Doc A, off back to back seconds in shorter distances, comes sweeping around to pass them all. The big “if” for her is that this will be her traditional dirt debut.

Then on Saturday, there are five more graded stakes in addition to the Kentucky Derby. First, the Gr-I Humana Distaff Handicap (3yo+, f&m, 7f) features some of the top sprinting ladies in the country, led by Sugar Swirl who has demolished the Florida sprint scene this spring and is on a 4 stakes win streak. But Gr-I winner Hystericalady will be tough to overcome, coming off a sharp, front runnig victory in the Azeri.

The Gr-II Churchill Downs Stakes (4yo+, 7f), features the return of the speedy Wanderin Boy in his first race since the BC Mile where he finished fourth.  But the improving Noonmark, winner of the Gr-III Mr. Prospector, has won two in a row and will be hard to beat. And keep an eye on British invader Thousand Words , who scorched the track in his US debut, an allowance race last month.

Moving on to the sprinting fillies in the Gr-III La Troienne Stakes (3yo, f, 7.5f), Gr-II winner Game Face looks prime to score again, especially if American County, Secret Gypsy and Keep the Peace burn themselves in an early speed duel.

The Gr-IIIT Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (3yo+, f&m, 8f) will see former Eclipse champion Dreaming of Anna looking to score her third straight stakes race in '08. Going to the lead, she will control the pace and be hard to beat.  But if anyone will, it will likely be former British racer Ventura, coming off a pair of impressive ungraded stakes wins over polytrack.

The final pre-Derby race will be the Gr-IT Woodford ReserveTurf Classic Stakes (3yo+, 9f), where Gr-I winner Einstein, first and second last out at the highest level, will be tough to conquer, coming in front of challengers Thorn Song and War M.onger. 

After yesterday’s first cut, we are left with:

• Pyro
• Tale of Ekati
• Colonel John
• Ga.yego
• Big Brown
• Court Vision
• Smooth Air
• Cool Coal Man
• Eight Belles (filly)
• Denis of Cork

Continuing the elimination rounds, we have the next tier.  These all have legitimate shots, but G-t-W believes they’ll fall short because:

• Court Vision – I really like the spirit and fight of this horse, as seen in his hard fought Remsen.  But he has yet to win a race in which he is more than 5 lengths off the lead, which he will surely be in Kentucky.  His racing style will play against him.

• Smooth Air – Have a feeling he will miss the race, but if he does not, he has yet to win over two turns. Has beaten , as well as being defeated, by lesser competition.

• Cool Coal Man – Ran faster as 2yo, seems to do best when closely pressing the pace, which will not do him any favors Saturday.

• Tale of Ekati – The first of the ‘big ones’ to go.  Needs perfect trip to win and has not won when racing further than third.  Will be further back than that and have a feeling he’ll run into traffic.  Plus slow Wood time.

Tune back tomorrow for round three.

Presently, below is the most likely list of the 20 starters for next Saturday’s Kentucky Derby:

•  Pyro
• Tale of Ekati
• Colonel John
• Ga.yego
• Big Brown
• Z Humor
• Monba 
• Court Vision
• Z Fortune
• Adriano
• Recapturetheglory
• Smooth Air
• Cool Coal Man
• Anak Nakal
• Eight Belles (filly)
• Cowboy Cal
• Visionaire
• Big Truck
• Bob Black Jack
• Denis of Cork

Of these, Smooth Air bears closest watching as he has recently run a fever and missed training, leaving his start in doubt.  If he is withdrawn, Halo Najib is next in line in the earnings list.

Over the next few days, we will put some pre-race analysis, all leading up to the big day and the ‘eagerly’ anticipated G-t-W selection.  So on that note, let’s eliminate a few that have little to no chance, Giacomo, Lil E Tee and Gato del Sol be damned:

• Adriano, Cowboy Cal and Monba – Stick to the grass or synthetic track
• Recapturetheglory – War Emblem you are not, not will you get such a trip
• Bob Black Jack - ditto
• Big Truck – Street Sense you are not, so Tampa does equal Kentucky
• Z Fortune – 3 race losing streak about to go to 4
• Z Humor, Anak Nakal and Halo Najib – 0 for ‘08 streak to remain intact
• Visionaire – First longer-than-1-mile win won’t come Saturday.

We will continue to fine tune on Wednesday after the final draw is set.

Saturday is ‘Champions Day’ in South Africa, with the running of three Gr-I’s and five Gr-II’s, including all ages and distances.  The list is composed of the Gr-I’s SA Derby (3yo, 2450m), Gommagomma Challenge (3yo+, 2000m) and Computaform Sprint (3yo+, 1000m), followed by the Gr-II’s Gold Bowl (3yo+, 3200m), SA Oaks (3yo, f, 2450m), SA Nursery (2yo, 1160m), SA Fillies Nursery (2yo, f, 1160m) and Camellia Stakes (3yo+, f&m, 1160m), all run at the Turffontein racecourse.

Most of the local top 3yo’s will square off in the SA Derby, led by Gr-I SA Classic winner King’s Gambit alongside Dingaans winner Lion’s Blood, second in the SA Classic, Senor Versace, winner of the Nijinsky Derby Trial, and stakes winner Causation.

Front running Pick Six, the defending race winner, leads the field in the Gommagomma Challenge, South Africa’s richest race.  Up to challenge him is the upset winner of the recent Colorado King Stakes, Bound by Honor and placegetter Like it Hot, both getting 5lbs, plus the top two  finishers of the Gr-I Horse Chestnut Stakes, Our Giant and Emperor Napoleon, and top mare Stratos, who has been dominant over her sex this year, going 3-3.

Defending race winner Mythical Flight, rated by many the top sprinter in SA, looks like the one to beat, but he will be hard pressed by 3yo J J The Jet Plane, last out winner of the Gr-III Man O’ War Stakes, and Seventh Rock, winner of the Gr 3 Tommy Hotspur Handicap and where he defeated a numbers of his sprint rivals, both of which will get a 5lb break.

The top two finishers in last year's 2-mile marathon, the Gold Bowl, are set to square off as Long Dollar and Pacific Warrior seek to duplicate that event's photo finish.  But both will need to watch out for Prince Asad, although the high weight will be a big factor against, and Membrado.

Leading the field in the SA Oaks will be undefeated Front of House, promising Garota De Ipanema, Jasmine Oaks Trial winner Moon Storm and SA Fillies Classic winner Urabamba, along with that race’s second place finisher Happy Spirit.

Warm White Night, winner of his only race when easily dispatching his rivals in the Protea Stakes, is the headliner in the SA Nursery, while undefeated Merlene de Lago is the one to beat in the Fillies Nursery, most recently easily taking the Gr-III Group Three Pretty Polly Stakes.  And in the final event is Gr-II Camellia Stakes (3yo+, f&m, 1160m), where Gr-I winner Ethereal Lady is the top choice.

Just like in the US, the first weekend in May will once more be the true start of the ‘Classic’ seasons in Europe, as a duo of Gr-I’s will be contested alongside a Gr-II.  The highlight of the weekend will be Saturday in England with the 200th running of the English 2000 Guineas (3yo, 1600m) at Newmarket Racecourse, the first leg of the UK’s Triple Crown.  That race will be couple with Sunday’s running of the Gr-I 1000 Guineas (3yo, f, 1600m).  The other major stakes are France's Gr-II Prix du Muguet (4yo+, 1600m) on Thursday at Longchamp Racecourse in Paris and the Gr-II’s Jockey Club Stakes (4yo+, 2400m) on Sunday in Newmarket.

In the 2000 Guineas, Europe’s undefeated 2yo Champion, Irish colt New Approach will be the favorite, and will be making his ’08 debut as will be most of the top entries…

(G-t-W editorial – Needless to say, this is quite different from the approach taken in the US in prep for the Kentucky Derby, where it is extremely difficult to come out on top w/o 2-3 prep races.  This points out why the European based horses have not done well in Ky. They are on even terms with their peers, but not properly prepared for the Derby. You need to see no further than ’91 2yo Champion Arazi, the horse some called the second coming of Secretariat, and who ran the most devastating BC race ever, if not the most amazing run by a 2yo ever, when he won the  91 BC Juv. the flopped in the Derby)

… The champ’s main foes will be Raven’s Pass, 3 out of 5 lifetime but one defeat againt ‘Approach, stakes winner and Dubai-connected Ibn Khaldun and entry mate Fast Company, Ireland’s Jupiter Pluvius, 2 for 2 as a 2yo, Italy's Gr-I winner Scintillo and the wildcard of the race, BC Juvenile Turf winner Nownownow.

There have been 15 winners of the UK’s Triple Crown, with the great Nijinsky being the last in 1970 and eight of them were back in the 1890’s.  And if New Approach wins, we will have to wait another year, as his connections have already said they plan to bypass the Epsom Derby, the second leg, and likely head to the Irish 2000 Guineas and Irish Derby instead.

When the fillies tangle in the 1000, it looks like it will come down to four top contenders.  The early favorite is the UK’s Infallible, two for two and coming off a sharp win in the Nell Gwyn Stakes, but not far behind is Europes’s 2yo Filly Champion, France’s Natagora, who last out won the Prix Imprudence and looking to become the first French filly to win the 1000 since 1992.  Standing in their way will be a pair of top UK stakes winning fillies, Muthabara, winner of the Dubai Duty Free Stakes, and Spacious, making her ’08 debut.

The final event in England will be the Jockey Club Stakes, the field led by defending race winner Sixties Icon who will be making his 2008 debut.

(updated 5/1)

Thursday's Prix du Muguet looks like a wide-open affair with a deep international flavor.  The main choice appears to be Italian owned and French raced Gr-II winner Spirito Del Vento, third in France's Gr-III Prix Edmond Blanc in his seasonal debut.  But look out for formerly Italian-based, now French based and Japanese owned Gr-I winning filly Turfrose, making her '08.  She may be the one to beat.  But a wildcard is the winner of the '06 version of this race Krataios, also making his '08 debut and with only last year's version as his only 2007 run.

Also, the final field was declared for the English 2000 Guineas with Jupiter Pluvius not entered due to a potential injury and Fast Company bypassing the race as well. BC Juv Turf winner Nownownow was the third big name defection, his missing a key workout due to rain forcing his connections to skip the race.