First, I don't watch college ball, save for a few I glimpse while atop a barstool. Most of my player rankings come from other sources. If I choose a DE for a team, that's more the point than his actual name. I have my shortcomings. That being said, my sources are ones I trust. Also, due to that level of trust, I'm not stretching beyond round 1.
Second, there are many days between here and there, and much could change. We all know this. If you have any comments or suggestions, let me know. I only claim to be a Broncos afficinado anyway... and with that said... my mock draft (version #1)
01. Miami Dolphins - DE Chris Long, Virginia
I think Parcells wants to trade down more than anything, but… if it doesn’t happen, I expect him to take a marquee player, namely Matt Ryan, or more likely, Chris Long. == 02. St. Louis Rams - OT Jake Long, Michigan
After the way Bulger and Jackson struggled behind an aging and ailing line, Jake Long should help immediately. == 03. Atlanta Falcons - DT Glenn Dorsey, Louisiana State
Rod Coleman is gone, and Dorsey helps the Falcons out immediately. Off the field behavior only makes him more attractive. I believe he’ll clear any physical concerns. == 04. Oakland Raiders - RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas
There is no way Al Davis passes up on the flashiest player in the draft. Even if only to trade him later… == 05. Kansas City Chiefs - DT Sedrick Ellis, Southern California
The Chiefs have many holes to fix, but Ellis is a top talent for the pick, and will help Hali and Allen. == 06. New York Jets - DE Vernon Gholston, Ohio State
The Jets love him, and he could add some teeth to a lackluster d-line == 07. New England Patriots - CB Leodis McKelvin, Troy
McKelvin helps address the loss of #### and Samuel, as well as an excellent return man. == 08. Baltimore Ravens - QB Matt Ryan, Boston College
Ryan will provide quality competition for the QB position. == 09. Cincinnati Bengals - LB Keith Rivers, Southern California
After a chaotic off-season of LB loss, and a poor showing last year, Rivers will have the ability to be a leader on D. == 10. New Orleans Saints - CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee State
Partially due to name, partially due to talent, Rodgers-Cromartie is rising fast and will serve as an exciting second to ####. == 11. Buffalo Bills - WR Malcolm Kelly Okalahoma
Seems Kelly is the odds on favorite to finally give Lee Evans a compliment. == 12. Denver Broncos - OT Ryan Clady, Boise State
While his stock seems to be rising, Clady’s style and size makes him a fit for Denver’s scheme, and few other teams. He’s still a deal at 12. == 13. Carolina Panthers - OT Jeff Otah, Pittsburgh
The big lug’s skills are raw, but he has a high ceiling, and Carolina needs to protect Delhomme this year. == 14. Chicago Bears - RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois
Last year showed that Benson needed Jones, and the other Adrian Peterson isn’t the answer. == 15. Detroit Lions - OT Chris Williams, Vanderbilt
John Kitna might be tired of seeing the dome cover. I’m just saying. == 16. Arizona Cardinals - CB Aqib Talib, Kansas
The secondary looks to be in flux, and Talib can make an impact out of the gates. == 17. Minnesota Vikings - DE Derrick Harvey, Florida
In light of Udeze, the Vikes find a deal with Harvey. == 18. Houston Texans - CB Mike Jenkins, South Florida
Continuing the escalation of their D through the draft, a somewhat porous secondary lands on a top corner. == 19. Philadelphia Eagles - WR DeSean Jackson, California
McNabb’s demand for more offensive weapons is answered… kind of. == 20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - CB James King, Penn State
Time to renew talent, and Kind has the size and raw talents… just needs time to develop. == 21. Washington Redskins - S Kenny Phillips, Miami
The best safety in the draft goes to those who lost Sean Taylor. == 22. Dallas Cowboys (VIA Cle) – CB Brandon Flowers Virginia Tech
With corners flying off the board, the Cowboys snag theirs, and with a high ceiling, Flowers is worthwhile here. == 23. Pittsburgh Steelers - OG Branden Albert, Virginia
By taking the top guard, the Steelers begin a long day of planning ahead for the o-line. == 24. Tennessee Titans - WR Limas Sweed, Texas
Young needs weapons and he knows Sweed. It’s a win-win. == 25. Seattle Seahawks - DT Kentwan Ballmer, North Carolina
Having addressed running back, Seattle can upgrade their D-line further with Ballmer. == 26. Jacksonville Jaguars - DE Phillip Merling, Clemson
Jags need to address their D-line again, after a year of lackluster pass rush and losses in the off-season. == 27. San Diego Chargers - DB Antoine Cason, Arizona
Cason’s stock has dropped, however his ability to play either safety or corner makes him a prime target for the Chargers, who need to address both. == 28. Dallas Cowboys – RB Felix Jones, Arkansas
The Boys, unable to pull down McFadden with much to-do get the guy who once compliment DMF to compliment MB3. == 29. San Francisco 49ers (VIA Ind) - OT Gosder Cherlius, Boston College
The Niners give their o-line a boost with Cherlius, a high-riser. == 30. Green Bay Packers – LB Jarod Mayo, Tennessee
The LB corps gets even more depth and knowledge as the young GB team plans even further into the future.. == 31. New England Patriots - Pick Forfeited
Hey, don’t cheat. You’ll pick more often. == 32. New York Giants - LB Dan Connor, Penn State
Conner helps to address the missing Kiwanuka with one of the top talents.
So, I tried to watch the draft. I got through most of the first round sitting inside an ESPN Zone in Denver. Don’t worry, Foxsports, this is not an advertisement for your competitors. The service was horrid, the booths were small, and we were told we couldn’t watch the draft in the main room because most of the tables had been “pre-reserved” through 6pm... and they remained empty from 9:30am until I left at 4:00pm. It was not pleasant.
But I sat there and assured myself that it would be an exciting draft, and my friends and I drooled over our mock drafts, special admiration shown to the depth and care I showed in demarking each trade, each special value... even pulling in draft picks from next year. I foresaw Michael Turner, Lance Briggs, Trent Green and Randy Moss finding new homes as part of package deals to move up and down. I foresaw Atlanta and Denver bundling picks to move up dramatically. I foresaw 5 of the top 10 teams moving down the board. I told myself there was no way... no way that Detroit would draft Calvin Johnson or that Cleveland would draft Brady Quinn. But I was so very, very wrong.
But I have had time to think about it... and review. I went through the draft and graded... an A+ would be getting all the best guys for your position of need and paying them a 3rd round selection salary (no one gets and A+) and an F is drafting 7 punters, and trading up to get the 7th (no one gets an F). Here is how I think each team did, and why:
Arizona: A
They finished off rebooting their offensive line with Brown, and got what I considered to be 3 first round guys... I even thought Branch would go in the top 15 for sure. The only thing that kept them from an A+ is that I find it hard to believe they couldn’t trade down to 7 or 8, get some other pick and still be able to draft Brown. But that’s me.
Atlanta: B-
How many picks did they have? Oh, right. 11. I don’t know. It’s not that they didn’t have some great pick ups, but really, they only needed 3. I thought they would be the ones to win the Calvin Johnson bid for sure. I like Jamaal Anderson and Chris Houston a lot, but if they pulled down C.J., and nearly any DE and CB would have been fine.
Baltimore: A-
I love their draft. Sure, not a lot of instant starters, but good guys who will compete and make this team even scarier. I love Willis McGahee’s new situation. Everyone wants to talk about what the Pats are doing, but I’m on the look out for Baltimore too this year.
Buffalo: C+
Do I like Marshawn #### here? Yes. I think he’ll probably start and do pretty well, and I’ll admit he has a good shot behind a much improved O-line. In fact, as far as fantasy stats go, I think he’ll be the most valuable rookie this year. Do I think Buffalo came anywhere near addressing all their other gaps? No way. Posluszny was a nice second round pick up, but still... gaps everywhere, especially on D. And seriously, how many RBs do you need?
Carolina: B
The fact that they got top guys in many needed positions by trading down and being smart is only slightly marred by the fact that most of them may not see much playing time this year. But watch for Charles Johnson in the future. If he uses Julius Peppers as a guide and a mentor, the guy might be horribly destructive for many years to come.
Chicago: C+
I don’t think they had a bad draft, just not a great one... and as a quick question... do they have DTs hiding somewhere I don’t know about? They’ll likely lose 2 (Ian Scott is still up for grabs) to free agency and Tank Johnson could be seeing the wrath of the NFL player conduct rules soon. Makes me wonder how much harder Urlacher will have to work, especially if Briggs sits most of the season.
Cincinnati: A-
Leon Hall – Steal. Kenny Irons – Steal. Marvin White – Steal. The other 4 guys, also likely to be steals. For playing it pretty straight... they saw many a blessing come their way.
Cleveland: A-
Thank you Cleveland for bringing some excitement to this draft. Did you pay too much for Quinn? That depends. Win enough football games, and the Pats see a value decline. And thank you for drafting a 5’5” kick returner. That’s just cute. Go Browns.
Dallas: B+
Anthony Spencer could be an early front-runner for defensive rookie of the year, so that’s good. As for the trades... they confuse me. But whatever.
Denver: B
Denver is my team. I’m not sure if I want to grade them yet. I know they really wanted Jarvis Moss, and I know teams were being stingy in the first round because we gave up quite a bit to move up to Jacksonville’s spot. I think the Giants must have wanted Moss badly as well, because the trade nearly reeked of desperation. If Moss and Marcus Thomas stay clean and live up to potential, it was a very shrewd draft. If they don’t, it was a series of complete blunders. I don’t know which it is yet, but I’m hoping for the best.
Detroit: A-
How do you judge a team that pulled top players they may or may not need? Sure, they’ve got good guys... let’s just see if any of them are capable of turning that franchise around a bit. Oh, and Detroit fans, pray for Kevin Jones’ return. Trust me here.
Green Bay: B
You know, if it wasn’t for Miami pulling Ginn Jr., Green Bay’s grab for Harrell would have destroyed most draft boards. Though they had some wonderful pick ups, I worry that the team may not have done enough once again to keep Favre on his feet.
Houston: A
Their best draft move was probably the acquisition of Schuab, but Amobi Okoye may be a close second. They say most coaches are given a 3 year shot in an organization, and I really hope that is the case for Kubiak. I think the team has taken the slow, steady route to improvement, and it will show this year, and more so next year, if the Texans can be patient. Oh, and fantasy kids, I would really consider sending a very late round pick toward Jacoby Jones.
Indianapolis: A-
You know those people who know exactly what food they have in the kitchen, and when they go to the store, they have a list of exactly what food they need to replace what was taken, and that’s all they buy? The Colts seem to be that kind. Effective draft, and coming off a Super Bowl win, you can’t blame them for consistency... it’s just a shame I can’t knock off points for being boring. Jacksonville: A
Good pick ups, addressed areas of need, and made good moves. Got a hell of a deal from the Broncos since they got their guy (Reggie Nelson) anyway. I don’t give A+ (because there is no such thing as a perfect draft), but this is pretty close.
Kansas City: B-
Again, not bad pick ups. But anyone who thinks they have a chance of being successful with the unaddressed hits they have taken on the O-line and the possibility of Larry Johnson being a pain in the ####, they’ve got another thing coming.
Miami: D
Every year, there is at least one team that leaves me wondering who was drinking what when they made their picks. For a team everyone was convinced was a Super Bowl contender before the start of the season last year, they have gone a long way to ensuring that they may not see a play-off for years. Seriously, forget Ginn Jr. for a second. Who drafts 2 centers?
Minnesota: C
Again, a draft that didn’t add up a whole bunch for me, but at least they got some quality guys. Peterson and Taylor should make a great RB combo, and I like Sidney Rice... but... I don’t know. Just not the smartest draft they could have possibly had.
New England: A
There is no doubt, the strong keep getting stronger. The gain of Randy Moss was huge, giving them a true #1 threat, and one starts to wonder if Belichick is just making one last big stab for a Super Bowl before retiring. I worry about team chemistry after so many pick ups, but you can’t deny the talent is in New England, and they actually improved that with their draft.
New Orleans: A-
I love the guys they picked. While everyone is looking at the powerful AFC, the Saints are my pick for the Bowl next year. I think Robert Meachum was a great pick, and with his size, ability to fight for the ball and speed, he reminds me a lot of Larry Fitzgerald. He may not see much action this year, but in years to come, he should be huge.
New York Giants: B
I like their picks, and they took both need and best available into consideration with each. Their lack of aggressiveness, however, leaves something to be desired in a team that seemed to be flailing for answers last year. That, and I really wanted Carolina to draft Steve Smith. That would have been AWESOME.
New York Jets: B
I think they sacrificed a lot for what they got, but it doesn’t mean it’s a bad draft. In fact, this is a team that is on the rise again. They addressed major issues of need, and they improved on what they were able to become last year. For a team that continues to develop from within, they got just the guys they wanted, and they are a team worth watching again this year.
Oakland: A-ish
Another team with 11 selections, Oakland pulled in an amazing amount of talent. Don’t expect an instant pay off though, o ye of the black hole. I think the key will be keeping the unit together for as long as possible, and maybe then Oakland will be a contender again... I just don't know if Al Davis is the type to watch talent develop. I also believe they did well for themselves by parting with Randy Moss’ bloated contract.
Philadelphia: A-
Phili made some nice pick ups, though Kolb might be questionable at the spot acquired. I think Phili is the other team in the NFC to watch this year, and their draft only encouraged that position.
San Diego: B+
I hate to admit this, since they are my home team’s division rivals, but San Diego was, in my opinion, the most talented NFL team last year, and they left many people questioning why, oh why, they didn’t win a Super Bowl last year. While they drafted players to fill the questionable positions on that team, I’m not sure they got the best guys to seal the deal. Still, I don’t look forward to my Broncs playing them twice, perhaps 3 times this year.
Seattle: C+
I’m going to go short on this one. Not a bad draft. Who’s playing tight end? Oh, Marcus Pollard. Yeah. Great. And you traded away Darrell Jackson for what? Never mind. Just, never underestimate the power of QB/WR chemistry. I’m just saying.
San Francisco: A
I love the additions of Willis and Staley. Another stellar draft, which includes the addition of Jackson. If Ashley Lelie was guaranteed to be one of the starters, I would have stuck a fork in San Fran, but now, with a good set of pick ups and Darrell, Vernon Davis being healthy, and some nice free agents, they may have turned a corner.
St. Louis: B-
I’m sorry... Carriker? That’s who you pull? No way. Not when Harrell and Branch are available and your defensive middle would have let JaMarcus Russell’s granny through. Sure, they are better after the draft, but there were way too many miscues here.
Tampa Bay: B +
I like the addition of Gaines Adams and I think Quincy Black might be a very good surprise. The knock on their draft is that they have many "project" players, and those don't always work out in Tampa.
Tennessee: B
They started strong, but after the third round picked up some questionable guys. They also failed to address the need at corner until the 6th round, and I am unsure about Williams improving their recievers.
Washington: B-ish
For the weird draft picks they had, they did pretty well. LaRon is going to be an instant starter, and their second day picks have potential. H.B. Blades in the sixth was a shock, and Jordan Palmer (yes, Carson's brother) could shock everyone, since Gibbs is so likely to pull the trigger at random. But, they still have a huge issue with their D-line, and with Washington, rookies don't tend to stay long, so whether any of them make a difference is anyone's guess.
And that’s my opinion on the draft. Sure, the draft itself wasn’t all I thought it was cracked up to be, but it is an interesting set. It makes me even more anxious to get this next season on the way... and yes, I know your team did better than I thought. Whatever. I would love to see Ted Ginn Jr. pan out... it’s part of what makes football exciting... but, here’s the thing. I really doubt it.
Oh! And one last thing, before I forget. Please, please, NFL officials... why 15 minutes plus commercial? Who needs that much time? We’ve all done our homework, we all know who we want... seriously, there is no reason for 15 minute selections. You’re killing your own ratings, bub.
The draft is coming up, and mock drafts have abound, from the paid columnist experts to the below average blogger, mock drafts have been rolling in. I have remained a bit quiet on this, but no more.
Does this mean I will post a mock draft?
No. That would be too easy, and simultaneously too difficult. This off-season has held an unforeseen amount of chaos, and dipping my toes into what might happen only leave me prone to being wrong. And I hate being wrong.
So instead, I’ve decided to post a brief listing of things I don’t see happening, despite rumors, wishes, and ramblings otherwise. We’ll start from the top, and keep in mind, I’m only going to talk about the first round.
I don’t believe Oakland will draft anyone with the first pick but JaMarcus Russel. Yes, Calvin Johnson is the top talent in the draft, but Oakland ditched Brooks, passed on Garcia, Carr, Schaub, and a bevy of other QBs, and they saw how Andrew Walters performed last year. Add to that the current retention of Randy Moss and Al Davis’ comparisons of Russel to... gulp... Elway, and the picture becomes clear. The only way Oakland scores Johnson is through a series of mind-boggling trades that result in having 2 of the top 4 picks. And that’s not going to happen.
I don’t believe Detroit will draft anyone at 2. I think this pick should be renamed “Who wants Calvin Johnson the most?” The answer is “not Detroit” and if someone is able to make a somewhat reasonable bid for the pick, Detroit will be more than happy to fill the many, many gaps on their team.
I don’t believe Adrian Peterson will slide out of the top 10. After the Reggie Bush debacle, I think any team not making a bid for the top running back if they have need will risk the scorn of generations. Do I know who will get him? My guess would be the Browns, but I could be wrong. I think Lewis and Peterson would be a great tandem. Still, that’s not the issue.
I don’t believe the Bucs will pass on Gaines Adams if he is at 4. Bringing in Cato June, and the having Charles Grant in for a workout and possible trade speaks to how badly they want to rebuild the D.
I don’t believe Brady Quinn will get drafted in the top 5. But I think it will be damn close.
I don’t believe Atlanta will get all the value out of the two spot swap with the Texans that they had hoped for. Yes, I think there is a large chance that LaRon Landry will get pulled before the 8th pick, and I think Levi Brown and Leon Hall (or other players on Atlanta’s radar) would probably be available at 10.
I don’t believe Denver will stay at their current slot. I think whether it is a trade up or down depends on if they are keeping Al Wilson. I’m hoping for a trade down.
I don’t believe Green Bay will get a shot at Marshawn ####.
I don’t believe Green Bay will care all that much.
I don’t believe Buffalo would look at anything but defense in the first round, and if they were smart, they might try and trade down to score multiple picks in a draft relatively thick with corners and linebackers.
I don’t believe Chicago will still have Lance Briggs come draft day. Even if talks with the Redskins have cooled off doesn’t mean there won’t be offers, and the right effort could mean Chicago screwing up everyone’s list.
I don’t believe the Broncos need a defensive end as bad as some would lead you to believe.
I don’t believe the Chargers or the Chiefs will look beyond getting a wide receiver.
I don’t believe the Giants or the Bengals should look much beyond a linebacker.
I don’t believe the flurry of trades, pick-ups, and strange signings have any sign of slowing before the draft. Should be fun to watch.
