8. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS, Pacific Division (05-06 record: 34-48) This is all Don Nelson- well ok mostly Don Nelson. He's won here before and has won everywhere he's been, and this current Warriors team will respect that. I still haven't figured out why teams don't just hire a psychologist as their coach, and then get some assistants to do the X's and O's stuff. I mean, NBA coaching is 90% babysitting and 10% X's and O's. EVERYBODY in the league is talented, it's just a matter of chemistry and getting millionaires with guaranteed contracts to give a #### every night. Why couldn't you hire a guy with a psych degree (a basketball background would be preferred but not mandatory), and give him an assistant coach with a name like "Wex Tinters" and Wex could come up with some crazy offense with a shape name like "The Octagon" or "The Rectangle" or maybe even "The Triangle". Then Psych Coach can coddle and baby all the players and Wex tells him all the plays to run. Just make sure Psych and Wex go to a team with 2-previously-uncoachable superstars. I think this combo could be worth, what- 8? Maybe 9 championships? Just a thought.
7. LA CLIPPERS, Pacific (47-35) I think the Arizona Cardinals choked against the Bears MOnday NIght because really, what would happen to the planet if the Clips make the playoffs 2 straight years AND the Cardinals start looking functional? Would the sky turn red and rain frogs? Would the seas boil? Would Jessica Simpson become intelligent? I just don't think the world's ready for the Clips AND Cards to be good. I have trouble believing the Clips will equal their 47 wins from a year ago. Yes they should get a whole season out of Corey Magette, Chris Kaman is a good center, and Shaun Livingston (if the kid would ever learn to shoot) could be the conference's breakout player. But Elton Brand can't possibly duplicate last year's MVP-like numbers, Sam Cassell will be the unmotivated "non-contract-year" Sam Cassell (and oh by the way he's 37), Cuttino Mobley's already 31, and they replaced the outside shooting of Vlad Radmonovic with Tim Thomas. Chances of seeing the Tim Thomas from the postseason instead of the one that he's been the rest of his career with a fat contract? Let's just say the Royals are going to the World Series before that happens.
6. LA LAKERS, Pacific (45-37) I don't particularly like Kobe Bryant, and apparently I'm not alone. I read in Sports Illustrated's NBA preview issue (I needed something to do on my lunchbreak) that Kobe has the 6th highest "negative Q" rating in all of sports (the top 5? Barry Bonds, Terrell Owens, Ron Artest, Peyton Manning and Bode Miller. OK I made Peyton up because I couldn't think of the 5th one). Before being very unsurprised that Kobe was on this list, I wondered who voted on this and why have I not seen this kind of thing before? I don't read SI's print copies much anymore, so maybe I missed this, but did they publish a whole list of who has the highest and lowest Q ratings? Because THAT'S a list I'd want to see! Anyway, despite my dislike for Kobe I still believe he's the best all-around player in the league (if Lebron wants that title he'd better start playing D), and that he alone is worth a playoff spot. Surround him with a good 2nd banana in Lamar Odom and a developing supporting cast, and this will be a VERY feisty team come playoff time.
5. HOUSTON ROCKETS, Southwest (34-48) Why aren't more people talking about the Curse of Tracy McGrady? The guy goes to Orlando along with Grant Hill and they look to be a dynasty in the making. Of course Hill's foot explodes while T-Mac carries the team for a few years, and he finally forces a trade to a contender with another superstar, Yao Ming. Another dynasty in the making, right? Of course not. T-Mac's back becomes worse than Rockstar Supernova and the Rockets limp to a spot in the lottery. So do things finally change this year? I just don't see it. Sure, IF T-Mac's healthy for all 82 and Yao plays like a house-a-fire (and stays healthy), this could be the best team in the West. But bad backs are like annoying ex's- they just don't go away, and I can't see McGrady playing more than 65. The Battier addition was good (I'd like to tell you they'll regret trading Rudy #### but I can't. He'll either be great or a journeyman. THere's no in between), and Bonzi was a steal, but I'm still not sure they have enough shooting, a point guard, or depth for if/when McGrady goes down.
4. DENVER NUGGETS, Northwest (44-38) Ok ok I'll admit it: I have a man-crush on Carmelo Anthony. He's my favorite player in the league to watch right now, and I think he makes the superstar-leap this year. In the only Timberwolves game I attended last year, I watched him torch the Wolves for 30, including the game-winner on an impossible fade-away 3 from the corner. I STILL believe he's more Bernard King than Glenn Robinson. I do agree with the pundits who said that his dominance in the World Championships this summer was due to the fact his game translates better to the international game than the NBA. However, I also think that experience and further bonding with Bronbron and Dwade will get the competitive fire burning more than ever. Wade's got a title. Lebron looks on the cusp. Melo does not want to be left behind. The Nuggs division title hopes rest largely on other factors however: one is low-post health. For Marcus Camby (used to be mentioned in the same sentence as Fred Taylor and Grant Hill when it came to frailness) and Nene (missed all of last year with knee injury) it's physical health. For Kenyon Martin, it's mental. The other factor is getting something- ANYTHING!- out of the shooting guard spot. The Nuggs may have stole JR Smith from the Bulls. I say MAY because the kid has the talent to be a star, but he hasn't proven yet he's got the desire. This is where Melo's leadership will be needed more than ever.
3. PHOENIX SUNS, Pacific (54-28) One of these days I'll have to delve into "The Curse of the Power Forward." Think about it, starting with Lenny Bias' death we've seen at least 4 transcendent talents at power forward fizzle in the L: Bias, Derrick Coleman, Chris Webber, and Shawn Kemp. All had ridiculous game but for one reason or another they never lived up to their mountainous potential. I'm worried we could be adding Amare Stoudamire to that list soon. "Micro-fracture surgery" has become the scariest phrase in basketball, especially for a guy like Amare who depends so much on explosiveness. The guy who before his surgery I had rated as one of the top 3 guys in the league I'd start a team around, now is fighting just to play again. Personally, I think Stoudamire never fully returns to his pre-injury form. For Phoenix, even if they get Amare at 80% of what he was, they're the best team in the league. However, I don't think you're going to get even 80% of him for a full 82 games. Not only will he be trying to work his knee back in shape, you're now trying to work a guy back into your offense that needs the ball. With 2-time MVP Stevie Nash (seriously that's STILL surreal to type- and keep in mind I'm Canadian, you hosers!) running the show, sharing shouldn't be a problem, but it's the small stuff like this that can tweak a team's chemistry just enough to change things. If Amare's back to 80% by the end of the year, this is the favorite come playoff time, but I have my doubts that happens this year- or ever. The other thing working against Phoenix? Nash cut his hair. Has he not heard the story of Sampson?
2. SAN ANTONIO SPURS, Southwest (63-19) Honestly, I've got them in 2nd only because of the "nobody's had the conference's best record 2 years in a row" thing. Tim Duncan had an "off" year by his standards, Manu was never quite himself, and Big Shot Bob's age might have finally caught up with him. And they STILL won 63 games!!!! Duncan will have a monster comeback, Manu will be feisty and annoying as ever, and I'm sure teams will inexplicably continue to guard Tony Parker like he has a jumpshot (even though he obviously doesn't), allowing him to drive and slash and dish and score. I hate the Spurs, but this is my pick to win the whole thing- which means another boring, methodical NBA Finals. Oh well, at least it will mean plenty of shots of Eva Longoria. Mmmmmmmmm hi Eva.
1. DALLAS MAVERICKS, Southwest (60-22) Well we'll definitely see what Dirk Diggler Nowitzki is made of now. He finally broke the Euro-stereotype of disappearing in the playoffs- well at least until the Finals. Dirk became human against the Heat, and that (well besides the fact the Mavs were getting called for fouls on Dwyane Wade the moment they got off the bus) was one of the main reasons a title eluded the Mavs. How do they respond? Will the be as fiery as ever? With the Little General Avery Johnson, I say yes. They resigned Jason Terry, which was HUGE for their chemistry, and these guys know what to expect now from each other and from a long playoff run. Dirk will be in the MVP-running again, Devin Harris SHOULD become a bigger factor, and with another deep bench the Mavs will have no shortage of scorers. By the way, LOVE the Maurice Ager pick. The Mavs are too deep for him to be in the rookie-of-the-year conversation, but he'll still be one of the league's best rooks from day 1. Still, I think the Spurs will be just a bit better when they meet in the conference finals.
Well here we go with my 3rd Annual NBA Preview. I'd like to say I'm a year older and a year wiser in making my predictions, but you know that's not true. A 4 part preview as before: non-playoff teams in the West, West playoff teams, and then the same for the East. We start with the 7 teams who won't be making the postseason, and who's only solace is knowing that all those teams except the one from Portland would be in the playoffs if they were in that other conference. Seriously. The West is that loaded.
Scarily enough, I did some research this year on the 7 seasons leading up to this one, from 1999-2000 to 05-06. Here's some things to keep in mind about the Western Conference: * only two teams have made the playoffs the last 7 years: one's the Spurs, and I bet you won't get the other one (they won't make the playoffs this year, and are somewhere in today's preview, so you've got some time to ponder that because this is going to get wordy!). 4 others have made it at least 5 times. * Never have more than 3 teams made the playoffs when they didn't make it the previous year, but there was always at least 1 new team every year. What does that tell you? That there's certainly parity in basketball, but not to the extent of football, where almost half the playoff field changes from year-to-year. In basketball one player can dominate a game more than in any other pro team sport, so it's not suprising that teams with dominant players stand a good chance of making the playoffs for as long as that guy is dominant (well unless of course that guy is Kevin Garnett and your GM is incompetent). * No team has had the conference's top record two years running. * The Don Stern refused to get rid of his moronic 3 division conference format, but he at least tweaked it a little bit. Unlike last year, where the Nuggets had the 6th best record but got the 3rd seed because they won their division, this year the division winner is guaranteed no worse than 4th. So if two teams from the same division (oh like say Dallas and San Antonio) have the 2 best records, they will get the top 2 seeds. * Just for a point of reference, here's how the team's finished last year:
15. PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS, Northwest Division (2005 record: 21-61) Not sure how things get worse for Portland. They took one of the most passionate and loyal fanbases in the country and killed them with pot-smokin' gun-totin' dog-fightin' thugs who were much better at getting arrested than making the playoffs. Now owner Paul Allen is complaining about a horrible arena lease THAT HE WILLINGLY SIGNED, and wants to move the team. And the final straw was passing on Adam Morrison, a guy that would have actually brought fans back to the Rose Garden, for Lamarcus Aldrige, who I said last year and will continually say is soft and will make Sto Swift look consistent. The Brandon Roy pick was a good one, but they could have had him and Morrison. Just another day at the office for the Blazers.
14. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES, Northwest (33-49) KG had a good year last year, and this team still only won 33 games. Now they're counting on Mike James, who magically came alive during his free-agent-to-be year, and a rookie in Randy Foye to help Garnett carry this team back to the playoffs? Really? Have I mentioned they have NOTHING in the post and a $34 million dollar European nothing at point guard? Garnett could have an MVP year, James could average similar numbers to last year and Foye could win rookie of the year and they're STILL not going to the playoffs. Minnesotans, catch KG while you can because he won't be here next year. But don't worry, Kevin McHale probably will be.
13. OKLAHOMA CITY SONICS, Northwest (35-47) Poor Howard Schultz. The Starbucks founder and BILLIONAIRE just couldn't doop the fine folks of the Emerald City into building him a brand new arena. So what'd he do? Slammed down his triple espresso skim latte in a hissy fit and sold the team in a huff to buyers in Oklahoma that will move the team down there in 2007. Oh and poor Howard, the guy who claimed the team was hemorraging money in Key Arena, got $250 million more than he paid for the Sonics. Thanks for ruining my basketball team, Howard. What's left is a decent core with Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, and Chris Wilcox, but there's not enough front-court depth to keep this team in the playoff hunt. It'll also be hard for the guys to concentrate when the new owners are telling the players "no no you'll LOVE Oklahoma! We've got wind and rodeos! And cows! And cowboy hats! You'll love them!" Oklahoma will make Utah look like Vegas in comparison.
12. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES, Southwest (49-33) No Pau Gasol for the first two months means no playoffs for the Grizz. Even I can do that math. But as will be mentioned 9,482,765 times between now and draft day 2007, this is one of the best drafts in decades, so it's not the worst year to take a one year hiatus from the playoffs. Oh and quick, can you name another Grizzly besides Gasol? Didn't think so. Mike Skinny Miller will keep bombing threes, and the transition year should give good experience for rooks Rudy #### and Kyle Lowery. Definitely a team with a bright future...well as bright as can be for a team that will be owned by Dukie's Christian Laettner and Brian Davis. Who else is in that ownership group? Alaa Abdulnaby, Thomas Hill, and Cherokee Parks?
11. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS, Southwest (38-44) Here begins the list of 11 playoff teams in the Western Conference. The problem for 3 of them is: they're only taking 8. The Hornets were last year's surprise team, right in the playoff hunt before losing 11 of 14 in March to knock themselves out of contention. A good young team saw some breakout years from power forward David West, and Rookie-of-the-Year point guard Chris Paul. Now with the big additions of small forward Peja Stojakovic and center Tyson Chandler, the Hornets should be all set to continue their rise into the playoffs right? Wrong. New Orleans played over their heads for most of the year, and came back to earth late in the season. Chris Paul will be an allstar, and David West will be solid, but there's still way too many holes in this lineup. Bobby Jackson won't be as good for this team as the departed Speedy Claxton was, and although Peja Stojakovic is a nice addition on the perimeter, he's not the player he used to be, and brings nothing else to the table besides shooting and a beard. Tyson Chandler? People are acting like the Hornest picked up the next Bill Russell. Please. The guy averaged 6 pts, 9 rebs, and 1.5 blks last year. He's a decent NBA center but not a guy who's going to propel you into the playoffs. THe Hornets are going in the right direction and should be around the 40 win mark, but they'll miss the playoffs this year.
10. SACRAMENTO KINGS, Pacific (44-38) Here's your trivia answer: yes the Kings have made the playoffs every year of this century, but it looks like that nice run will come to an end in 2007. They've got all-star caliber players in C Brad Miller, PG Mike Bibby, PF Shareef Abdur-Raheem, and of course SF Ron-Ron Artest. A couple of problems in Cali's Capital though: 1st is Artest. I LOVE Ron-Ron when he decides to play, but the guy is a walking circus, and you just can't count on him to behave for 82 games. 2nd was letting Bonzi Wells go. Was he asking for too much? Yes, but who are they going to have replace him? Wells carried the Kings in the 1st round, and almost upset the Spurs. Now he's gone to Houston, and the Kings are going to try and replace him with Francisco Garcia, who's a nice role player, but not an NBA starter. The 3rd problem is depth-- the Kings don't have any, especially in the front court where they have Kenny Thomas in a rotation with Miller and Shareef- and that's it! Injuries or fatigue will take its toll here. The Kings will be around .500, but just out of the playoffs, meaning the Maloof brothers will have more time to spend at their casino in Vegas. Not that they need it.
9. UTAH JAZZ, Northwest (41-41) I REALLY want to put this team in the playoffs, and in the weak Northwest Division, where it's basically just them and Denver, they've got a good chance. They won 41 games last year while only getting 33 games out of PF Carlos Boozer, using a rookie point guard, and missing their best shooter, Matt Harpring for most of the year. That rookie, Deron Williams, looked much improved by year's end, and Harpring should be back at full strength for the opener. They also added an athletic SG in the draft in Corey Brewer, who should help fill a gaping hole at the 2guard (well that's IF they can get coach Jerry Sloan to trust a rookie). And I haven't even mentioned the NBA's best defender, SF Andre Kirilenko, or underrated C Memet Okur. So what's holding the Jazz back? Let me put it this way: they make the WNBA look athletic, and in a conference that's getting faster and will be running more than ever, that's a problem. There's nothing wrong with slow, methodical, fundamental basketball (other than being painful to watch), and should get the Jazz at least back to .500, but they just don't have enough fire power to run and gun in the wild West this year.
With Twins Fever sweeping the nation, the Vikings scoring less than and the Gophers football season essentially over, you know what that means: it's NBA preview time!!! Sure nobody but me cares or is all that interested, but we're gearing up for the 2006-07 season that could be the most wideopen in decades. Literally. My 3rd annual NBA Preview is forth-coming, (click here and scroll down for 2004 and 2005) but first, some things you should know for the upcoming year...
THE MORE THINGS STAY THE SAME, THE MORE THEY CHANGE? This was one of the most boring offseasons in memory. The free agent crop was weak, and the draft, although deep with decent players, provided no impact guys. When guys like Al Harrington or Peja Stojakovic switching teams are considered the big moves of the summer, you know there just wasn't much available. Honestly, I was going to give you the 5 biggest/most important offseason moves, but I could only find 3! The teams you saw last year won't look much different on opening night.
THE EAST IS MEDIOCRE-- AT BEST Big Ben Wallace going to Chicago from Detroit was THE move of the offseason, but it actually made the conference worse, not better. East Coast fans will shout about how the East has won 2 of the last 3 titles, and they have the game's 2 best players in Lebron and DWade. While true, it can't hide how average the conference is, and once again how far behind the West they've fallen. Big Ben makes the Bulls better but it DOES NOT make them the favorites in the East (they're KG away from doing that). Losing Wallace in Detroit brings the Pistons back to the pack, now giving them no inside presence and still no bench. Miami got a year older, and since they were old to begin with, that means they got worse (and in Shaq's case, a LOT worse), so DWade is going to need the refs on his side more than ever to get the Heat back to the Finals.
THE WILD WILD WEST WILL BE JUST THAT For the first time in a long time there's no dominant team. There's no preseason juggernaut like the Spurs of past years or the Shaq/Kobe Lakers. 14 of the 15 teams out here have legitimate postseason aspirations. Seriously. They break down like this: FIGHTING FOR... BEST RECORD: Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix THE 4th SEED: Houston, LA Clippers, LA Lakers A PLAYOFF SPOT: Everbody else but Portland Everybody's got issues, everbody's got flaws, so all the little things will make the biggest difference in who makes the playoffs out West. Oh and so does David Stern's stupid 3 division format, meaning SOMEBODY in the Northwest has to make the playoffs.
HOORAY REGULAR SEASON! I can't tell you how I know this, but I do: the regular season should be the most fun to watch since the mid '80's. Stern's going to give hardcore basketball fans like me the run and gun beauty of how basketball should be played in the regular season. Thanks to Mike D'Antoni, Steve Nash, and the Phoenix Suns, the point guard, play-making and the fast break has become relevant again. With the success of Dallas' wide-open attack, more teams will be going that route this season, including Toronto, Milwaukee, and Chicago out East. With only one true dominant center left in the game (surprise! It's Yao, not Shaq), teams are finally realizing that putting their best 5 guys on the floor and going is a recipe for success. Well at least until the postseason, that is...
BOO CREEPY 1-ON-5 BASKETBALL Because when the playoffs roll around we're going back to the 1-on-5 basketball we saw Miami play last year. Stern knows that superstars still drive his ratings. High scoring basketball is all well and good but for average or casual fans to watch in the playoffs, Stern knows you need DWade or Shaq or Lebron or Kobe. And he'll get them. Wade and King James will be parading to the free-throw stripe like the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade. The East is so watered down this year, I am GUARANTEEING either Miami or Cleveland goes to the Finals this year. That's right, you're getting an iron-clad MWSR guarantee. Wade and Lebron are two megawatt stars on average teams. In the West they'd be fighting to get in, but in the East they'll be battling for a spot in the Finals. Actually, do you want me to ruin the ending, and tell you who'll be representing the East? Hint: he'll be assuming the throne as the "King" of the NBA.
ONE PLAYER COULD DECIDE THE 2007 NBA CHAMP That one guy would be Mr. Kevin Garnett. Although the Wolves have a playoff shot because of their division, a LOT has to go right for them to have a chance, and I just don't see all of it coming together. For KG's sake, hopefully he realizes that this is his best year to win a championship somewhere else. This coming summer there'll be plenty of free agents and impact kids in the draft so the NBA landscape will look dramatically different a year from now. Wolves VP Kevin McHale is too gutless to deal Garnett because it will prove what most of already know: McHale's tenure running the Wolves has been a complete failure. He's had 11 seasons to put a quality team around his Garnett and he hasn't done it. They're further away from a championship now than when Garnett came to the Wolves in '95. So he'll hang onto his superstar until he forces his way out. IF KG forces a trade by the deadline, teams will line up with offers because in a wide-open season, a player of Garnett's caliber could vault a ton of teams into the Finals. The Bulls are the most obvious example, as he's the perfect fit there AND they have the draft picks/young players/cap room to make it work. KG in Chicago automatically makes them the best team in the East. Still, I see McHale locking himself in his North Oaks mansion until season's end, his eyes closed and hands over his ears, pretending the KG era in Minnesota isn't over. It is, and if KG forces a trade by the deadline, it's going to make this wide-open year even more exciting.
Minnesota Timberwolves fans may not want to hear it, but it has to be said: it's time for KG to go. I thought Startribune columnist Jim Souhan put it best last week, saying
"What is wrong with the Wolves, Garnett can't fix alone, and that's his only option if he stays."
I couldn't have said it any simpler. Garnett is in a no-win situation because the roster is essentially locked for his remaining three years on his contract. Thanks to the moves made by GM Kevin McHale, the Wolves are capped out for the remainder of Garnett's tenure in Minnesota, meaning not only can they not add any viable players via free agency, but they can't trade for any either because the guys that ARE eating up salary (i.e Mark Blount, Marko Jaric and Troy Hudson) are virtually untradeable at this point. So what you're stuck with is a team that at its best is good enough for the 7th or 8th playoff spot (meaning you get whipped in the first round) or at worst the 7-14th worst lottery team (and not bad enough to get into the top 5 where you've got a decent chance at landing a high pick).
So basically the Wolves you saw last year are the Wolves you'll see through 2008-- and that's IF Garnett doesn't force a trade before then, which he almost certainly would. Garnett deserves a shot at at title, and there is not only the perfect destination out there for him right now, but it's a place that can also give the Wolves some great building pieces back. Not only that, but a trade for Garnett now is going to net you more than it would say in February before the deadline when everyone knows you HAVE to trade him.
Ladies and gentlemen, the next destination for Kevin Garnett should be: the Chicago Bulls.
Bloggers and fans and even the media often make a common error when suggesting trades: they only look at one side. People like to think you can combine a few of your fringe players together in a big bundle and bring back an all-star. Not going to happen, even with Isiah Thomas still employed in New York (at least until Christmas). Chicago has been a rumored destination for KG for awhile because he spent his senior year of high school there, AND the Bulls have some nice young players, as well as the cap room to absorb KG's mammoth contract without Minnesota having to take back a bad contract to match salaries. The rumors continue to swirl because it makes so much sense for both sides.
First there's Chicago. GM John Paxson has rebuilt the Bulls beautifully with young players and plenty of cap space, but the signing of Ben Wallace earlier this week for a fat salary actually ENHANCES the Wolves bargaining position. With Garnett, plus Wallace as the inside defender and rebounder every team would love, along with uberpoint guard Kirk Heinrich and a bevy of talented wing players, the Bulls are the new favorites to represent the East in the Finals. And although I don't think the BUlls would be better than Phoenix, Dallas or San Antonio, as the Heat showed this past year and the Pistons showed 3 years ago, if you're good enough to get there, even if you're not favored on paper, you can be good enough to win it. Garnett's 31, Wallace is 30, and together you've got a 4 year window for a championship run. Without Garnett the Bulls still have a gaping hole at the 4 spot, and no inside scorer. They're improved, but probably only the 4th best team in the East. And Paxson knows this. The Ben Wallace signing turned Garnett from a luxury to a necessity for the Bulls. No one else makes as much sense for them as he would, and nobody would work as well as he would. He's the guy they now HAVE to have to make the Wallace signing a good move.
For the Wolves? It's the only trade partner that makes sense, as long as you get one thing: Chicago's 1st round pick for the upcoming 2007 draft- and along with it, the right to swap that pick with the Knicks (which you're 99.99999999% guaranteed to do because of how awful the Knicks will be this coming season). Paxson has been very, very, VERY reluctant to include this pick in any deals for anybody. Why? If you haven't heard, the 2007 draft is being lauded by people in the basketball community as anything from the best draft in years to the best in decades. There are 5 bonafide potential superstars expected to declare, the best of the bunch being Ohio State-bound center Greg Oden. Oden has been touted since he was a high school freshman as the best big man since Tim Duncan or David Robinson. After he destroys the Big 10 next year, you'll see that those comparisons are accurate. The other elite prospects aren't too shabby either and would go a long way towards hitting the fast-forward button on rebuilding for whatever team is lucky enough to have a pick in the top 5. And here's the thing: if the Wolves demand that Chicago/Knicks pick be included for Garnett, Minnesota has a very real chance of having not one but TWO top 5 picks next year. That's a helluva way to start the post-KG era in Minnesota.
I did some research on this (thanks to realgm.com for the info) and it looks like McHale wasn't quite as dumb as I'd feared. Although his trade of Sam Cassell AND a conditional #1 pick for Marko Jaric is still one of the worst deals of the decade so far, the Clippers are by no means guaranteed Minnesota's pick for 2007. The pick is top 10 protected through 2011, so if you dealt Garnett, the WOlves would be a very bad team, all but assuring them of keeping their pick. So there's plus what should be the pick from an also very bad Knicks team means the Wolves now have 2 chances at landing Oden in the lottery, or at worst, two picks in the top 6 or 7 o####reat draft.
So that pick HAS to be included. Again, Paxson will not want to part with this for the reasons mentioned above, but it just doesn't make sense for Minnesota to trade KG if this pick isn't included. Paxson knows how valuable the pick is, but he also knows the time is now to get KG to make a run for the title, and his opportunity may not be as good if he waits.
IF the pick is included, it's reasonable for the Wolves to get two more guys back. I know a draft pick and two non-allstar players for a guy like Garnett doesn't sound like much for Wolves fans, but hear me out. I've already explained what getting that pick will do, and adding two more from the Bulls young core would be a steal. One of those guys NEEDS to be Tyrus Thomas, the Bulls lottery pick from this past draft. He's long, athletic, and most importantly, the kid works his #### off. The biggest gamble teams have to take on these kids now is whether they're going to be willing to work or not. With most of them you never can tell, but Thomas has been a workout warrior in his two years at LSU, and from everything I've read, that should continue. He's about as safe a bet to be an allstar down the line as anyone selected in the 2006 draft, and if the Chicago had Wallace AND Garnett he wouldn't play much anyways, so he's expendable.
Your third guy is one of the following three: combo guard Ben Gordon, swingman Luol Deng, or swingman J.R. Smith. Gordon was a hot rumor for awhile, and although I really like him, the Wolves drafting combo guard Randy Foye eliviates the need to get BenGo. As good as these two could be, having two guards 6'4 or under in the backcourt would cause you problems defensively. Deng is a Dukie that came out a year or two too early, but is a great athlete, good defender, smart player, and a great kid to boot. He's expendable for Chicago because of how well Andres Nocionni played in the past playoffs. Still, the guy I'd target would be Smith, the 6'6 super athletic wingman who doesn't turn 21 until September. The Bulls just picked him up from the Hornets, as he got into Coach Byron Scott's doghouse and couldn't get out. Still the kid has oodles of potential, and has more of that magical "upside" than the other two. Better still, the kid is getting paid next to nothing, so if he doesn't pan out in his one-year tryout or cops more of that bad attitude, he's still very tradeable because there'll ALWAYS be somebody willing to take a chance on a then 22-year old athletic swingman with a cheap contract.
2006 would be a tough year. Ok, ok, 2006 for the Wolves would be an out and out Gong Show. But if you're not going to make the playoffs WITH Garnett, it'd be worth it to put yourself in this situation without him to be completely unwatchable for 2006-- and then have the best young team in basketball in 2007 and beyond. For the start of 2007 you'd have two high lottery picks who'd be able to make an immediate impact, plus Ty Thomas and Foye with a year under their belt, JR Smith, AND a healthy Rashad McCants. That's 6 guys for 5 spots. Give them 2007 to battle it out, and then package one or two with your remaining gawd-awful contracts for cap relief and role players to fill out your roster. Voila!! In less than 2 years you go from borderline playoff contender with no hope, to burgeoning playoff contender with the brightest future in the league!
You never want to have to deal a player the caliber of Garnett, but if you have to, this is the best you're going to find at turning things around in a hurry. As Jer said, Garnett deserves a shot to win a title, and he'd get it right now in Chicago. The Wolves deserve a new guy running the team, but since they can't get that, a white hot young nucleaus of talent to replace The Franchise is as good as they can ask for.
* Do you think Isiah Thomas is now intentionally trying to sabotage the Knicks? I know, I know you could argue it looks like he's been doing that all along, but after taking Renaldo Balkman (!!!!!) in the first round, I have to wonder. I mean, after all the scrutiny and ridicule he's been under this past season, and after owner James Dolan gave him the "1 Year Ultimatum", has the light finally gone on enough for him to see that he doesn't have a hope in hell of saving his job or reputation? So if he's going to go down, why not go down in flames? I could see him topping off his draft flop by signing Michael Olowakandi to a 5 year deal, trading for Chris Webber and Zach Randolf, and dealing any and all contracts that expire in the next year or two for 5-6 year deals. Nothing is out of the question now for the Knicks for the next 12 months. Knick fans could turn NYC into a scene from the movie THe Warriors by Christmas.
* Nice to see Memphis GM Jerry West has awoken from his coma and is in good spirits. After a masterful job of building a Lakers dynasty, it looked like West had lost it in his time in Memphis. Well last night he returned to his old form, fleecing the Rockets for RUdy #### and Stro Swift for Shane Battier. I'm still baffled that he pulled that one off. If somebody in your fantasy basketball league tries that deal, it gets voted down in a heartbeat. Yet the ROckets GM thinks it's a good idea. Plus, West adds a quality PG in Nova's Kyle Lowry (everytime I hear the name Lowry I think of Martin Lawrence- remember when he was still funny and hadn't sold out?- saying "Mike LAHW-REE". Maybe it's me) and a decent PF in Alexander Johnson for his post-rotation. I do believe the Grizz just grabbed the first spot in line behind Phoenix, Dallas, and San Antonio in the West.
* For some reason I have a couple of random thoughts about professional sports most boring franchise-- the Utah Jazz (honestly, did you just fall asleep thinking about the Jazz? Bare with me here)
1) was I the only person who thought "wow they didn't take a white guy!!" when they selected Ronnie Brewer with their first pick?
2) If Brewer can stay sane in Utah, he's my pick for rookie of the year. No, I haven't been drinking. Ronnie Brewer will win Rookie of the Year. With either a) a healthy Carlos Boozer or b) a healthy replacement in an offseason deal for Carlos Boozer, the Jazz are a playoff team, with Kirilenko, Williams/Dee Brown at the point (LOVE the Dee Brown pick, BTW), Harpring doing white guy things like shooting 3's and sporting a 1950's haircut, and Memet Okur doing European things in the post like flopping, rebounding, chain-smoking, and growing a bear during timeouts, the Jazz are already a salty team. Now they add the one thing they needed, a 2 guard who can score, and he's going to get plenty of opportunities to do it.
3) the "staying sane in Utah" thing isn't as easy as it sounds. Honestly, if you're a normal dude like Brewer, what the hell do you do in your free time in Utah? Karl Malone survived there only because he's the whitest black man alive, doing things like driving big rigs and playing cowboy. But for Brewer? What do you do if you don't ski, you like to stay out past 10, and you're really that interested in listening the Mormon Tabernacle Choir? I'm not envious of him, I'll say that.
* I like Cleveland's pick of Shannon Brown. I'm not sure why, considering Michigan State had him, Maurice Ager (another great pick for the Mavs. He could be a Josh Howard/Marquise Daniels type combo guy) and Paul Brown and yet underachieved all year. Still, I think Brown could make a good pro, especially there. Also, would if you're Cleveland, would it make too much sense to deal Big Z to Utah for Boozer? Big Z was a BAD signing last year, I mean as bad as his playoff beard bad. He's slow, he's plodding, and on the bright side he has serious foot problems. And he doesn't fit with what the Cavs want to do. Seriously, wouldn't Cleveland be better off starting Lebron, Brown, Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall and Side Show Bob and just run the hell out of people? Maybe it's me. You need to get rid of Z's ugly game and contract, and who loves big ugly white centers more than Utah (ok besides Milwaukee)? Maybe it's me.
* It's become a bad joke. You know, the one about how if you're a US high schooler that's 6'10+, you should move overseas and change your name to something unpronouncable with like 17 consonants in it, the NBA will draft you. Well it was proven true once again last night, as unproven foreign guys who have no experience against real competition and would get out-and-out destroyed in college, get drafted in the NBA because they have "upside" and "great length". I'm talking about #1 pick Andrea Bargnani, who got solid minutes in a very good league. I think he was the right pick for the Raptors. I AM talking about the guy my Sonics took 10th, something called Mouhamed Saer Sene, a 7 footer from Senegal who blocked 19 shots in 18 games in some league in Europe last year, and how just 12 MONTHS AGO learned how to do a layup off the proper foot. And the Sonics took him 10th. Awesome. Even better to me was Portland (who otherwise had a solid draft) taking another 7 footer, JOel Freeland with the 30th pick. Please tell me you saw his "higlight package" when he got picked. He looked like he was playing against junior high kids- and it wasn't like he was dominating them either. Hell this rail-thin wisp wouldn't crack the rotation for a decent US HIGH SCHOOL team, let alone a decent D1 college program. The kid will never play a minute in the NBA, and yet he'll get a 3 year guaranteed contract worth millions. Un-freaking-believable. Seriously, I'm moving to like Belgium or Turkestan and starting a basketball academy for tall American kids. We'll play in the local Thursday night men's league, and I'll leak tape of them shooting jumpers in practice to Chad Ford and the scouts will go crazy over their "outstanding upside" and they'll get drafted and make millions. And all I'll ask the kids for is a small percentage of their NBA paycheck, which they wouldn't otherwise be getting if they had stayed in the USA and played against real competition, or (gasp!) actually gone to a D1 school for 3 or 4 years. Who's with me?
* other team's drafts that I like (notice the theme of taking players who, oh I don't know, were actually PRODUCTIVE COLLEGE PLAYERS!?!?!?)
LA Clippers- I've already started building my bombshelter, and I'll start moving in supplies over the weekend. When the Clippers win a playoff series, and follow that up with a sensible draft (Paul Davis and Diaz will be good rotation guys at the very least)? I'm not saying the end is near, I'm just saying I'm going to be prepared just in case.
New Jersey- "stole" Marcus Williams at 22 (sorry I couldn't resist), Josh Boone will get minutes, and all Hassan Adams will do is play hard, D up, and dunk on you.
New Orleans- shhhhhhhh- don't look now, but the Hornets are building something pretty nice down there in the Bayou.
Orlando- After getting burned by a Euro last year in the draft, Orlando had the crazy notion to draft proven college players, and my gawd will you look at that! JJ Redick and James Augustine will contribute from the get-go! Will wonders never cease?
I've never met Minnesota Timberwolves VP Kevin McHale. I have nothing against him as a person. He's probably a nice guy, and as a matter of fact, I'm sure of it, because that's all I hear from anybody who knows him or deals with him. But Timberwolves fans, after this season we may lose Kevin Garnett. The greatest athlete in the history of Minnesota sports could very well ask to be traded because the organization, fans, and media are too "Minnesota Nice" to McHale, the guy whose most responsible for the team's current state. Where's Donald Trump when you need him? Garnett could leave this summer because none of the people around Kevin McHale have had the courage to tell him the two simple words he needs to hear: You're fired.
I like KFAN. I really do. But most of the on-air staff on that station fall all over themselves to heap praise and love on McHale whenever he's on the air or his name is mentioned. On the Sludge & Lake Show last night, I almost drove off the road because of something Sludge said. After my seething anger had subsided, I realized that what he had said was what so many people around the Wolves believe and accept, and I think that's why it made me so mad. A caller had stated that McHale doesn't get enough criticism from Minnesota media and basketball fans for the horrible decisions and non-decisions he's made the last 2 dozen years. Sludge's response was that (and I'm paraphrasing here) "He does get plenty of critisicm (really? from who?) and that yeah he's made a lot of bad moves. He hasn't had many draft picks work out, but you can say that about a lot of teams. Like (Michael) Jordan, a great player doesn't always mean he's going to be a great GM." Here's the part I'm not paraphrasing. This is an exact quote, and is what sent me off the handle: "But he's such a nice guy."
(let me get a running start at this one...)
WHAT THE HELL DOES BEING A NICE GUY HAVE TO DO WITH RUNNING A PROFESSIONAL BASKETBALL TEAM?!?!?! WHAT DOES BEING NICE HAVE TO DO WITH THE FACT KEVIN MCHALE IS A TERRIBLE GM?!?! YOU JUST SAID HE CAN'T DO HIS JOB, AND COMPARED HIM TO MICHAEL JORDAN, WHO WAS EQUALLY AS BAD AT HIS!!! BUT BECAUSE HE'S NICE WE CANT FIRE HIM?!?!WELL GUESS WHAT? JORDAN'S THE GREATEST PLAYER IN THE HISTORY OF THE @#$%^* SPORT BUT HE GOT FIRED!!!!!! THEY CANNED HIM BECAUSE HE WAS INCAPABLE OF TURNING THE WASHINGTON WIZARDS INTO A WINNER!!!! THIS DOESN'T MAKE JORDAN A TERRIBLE PERSON, IT JUST MEANS THE PEOPLE IN WASHINGTON HAD THE BALLS TO TELL HIM HE SHOULDN'T BE RUNNING THEIR TEAM!!!! I DON'T CARE HOW NICE MCHALE IS OR HOW GOOD A FRIEND HIS IS WITH THOSE IN THE ORGANIZATION OR WITH THE FLAGSHIP STATION!! HOW CAN YOU SAY YOU CARE ABOUT WINNING OR CARE ABOUT THE TEAM WHEN YOU'RE SO BLATANTLY PUTTING FRIENDSHIPS AHEAD OF WINNING?!?!?!?
(...taking a moment to allow redness to leave my face, and for steam to cease from blowing out of my ears...)
Look, McHale's a good guy. I get it. A big hero for the Gophers, a real man's man on and off the basketball court. Old school, doesn't take any ####. One of Minnesota's finest, one of Minnesota's "our guys", a true "Minnesotan" in every sense of the word. Got it. But he's failed running the Wolves. I could fill pages (and Jer and I have in the past) and pages with the blunders the guy's made. Saying he's been a failure at putting a championship team together in Garnett's 11 years is not saying he's a bad guy: it's just saying he shouldn't be a GM. Timberwolves fans are some of the most passionate in the NBA. They care about this team as much or more than any fan base in the Association, and have been through as much or more adversity since the city was awarded a franchise. They DESERVE to cheer for a champion as much as Garnett deserves to be one.
Wolves fans, please, I beg you: stop being Minnesota nice. As much as you don't want to think about, realize losing Garnett is a real possibility here. In a pregame interview with TNT last night, Garnett was the most outspoken he's been on how McHale and owner Glen Taylor have mishandled the team around him. Garnett still answered in more of a "read between the lines" style than calling anyone out, but it's the latest sign that Garnett's patience with the organization is not only running thin, it's running out. Before it's too late Wolves fans, put aside "McHale the Minnesotan" and look at him as "McHale the GM". Realize we could have a GM that can actually makes a solid draft choice more than once or twice a decade, and a GM that actually KEEPS draft picks to make a solid choice. A guy who actually knows how to pick up the phone, and use some creativity to make a deal and get some guys around Garnett that he can win with. McHale got ripped off in the Cassell/Jaric deal by Elgin Baylor, who before this year was considered one of the worse GM's in any sport!! So what does that make McHale? For the last 10 seasons, Timberwolves fans have accepted exactly what this current group of players around KG is going to give you: good, but not good enough.
Please, before it's too late, before I have to throw up all over myself watching KG win a championship in another city, call out Kevin McHale. Demand he find a new job. Demand a new guy to run the team. If you don't, the only thing McHale's really doing is helping to pack Garnett's bags this offseason when he demands a trade to a team that cares about winning. And there would be nothing nice about that.
Be it the flair or the hair, it's becoming impossible for basketball fans not to love Steve Nash. The captivating Canadian put on yet another improbable show last night, leading his Phoenix Suns to a 121-118 win over Dallas in game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Nash's 27 points and 16 assists led TNT analysts Chuck Barkley, Kenny Smith and Reggie Miller to wish they had brought ball shoes instead of loafers so they could play with Nash. Barkley went so far as to call Nash "one bad whiteboy" (his best line of the interview was when he asked "Hey Steve? Do y'all ever even talk about playing defense?" Classic Chuck.). With back-to-back MVP's and now a real shot at winning a Title this year, Nash is becoming part of the "greatest point guards ever" talk.
Rightfully so? I don't think so. He's been brilliant this season, but Nash has a long way to go to stack up with not only the Magic's and Big O's and Stockton's, but to even be considered the best point guard since Stockton. Ahead of him on the list? Gary Payton and Jason Kidd. Both have had stronger and more consistent careers than Stevie, and were better all around players. Now keep in mind, I grew up a Sonics fan and Payton's my 2nd favorite player of all-time (1.Shawn Kemp 2.GP 3.Kevin Garnett 4.Chris Webber), so I'm biased. But I believe had Payton played in New York, LA, Chicago, or Boston he'd be mentioned as a top-5 all-time point guard, not barely cracking the Top 10.
Comparing career stats for these three is difficult. Whereas Payton and Kidd have been consistently good for a long time, Nash had such a slow start, and as you'll see, that's really the biggest point in all of this. Nash didn't start more than half of his teams' games until his 5th season, which means he's only been playing at a high level for 6 years. Payton's career averages have dropped because he continues to hang on at age 37, but he had 10 seasons of averaging at least 19 points and 7 assists, garnering 9 all-star selections in that time. Kidd has been consistent from the get-go, and although he hasn't been quite the same since microfracture surgery last season, that's still at least 10 all-star-type years on his resume.
SCORING: Kidd: 14.6 PPG (FG%: 40.2, 3pt%: 33.2, FT%: 77.9) Nash: 13.5 PPG (FG%: 47.7, 3pt%: 42.1, FT%: 89.6) Payton 16.9 PPG (FG%: 46.7, 3pt%: 31.9, FT%: 73) Nash is certainly the best shooter of the group, and I was suprised to see that Kidd has better percentages from 3 and from the charity stripe than Payton, however GP's only taken 95 more 3's in his career, but has taken 1221 more free throws. When you look at their career totals, it shows that Payton is clearly a better scorer than Nash. In his 6 years as a fulltime starter, only three times (not including his MVP year last year, where he averaged 15.5) did Nash average more than 16 a game, whereas Payton has averaged 16+ in a season 10 TIMES and JKidd has done it 4 times. Not only that but GP scored more than Nash's career high of 18.8 of this season 9 TIMES IN HIS CAREER!! Payton and Kidd both are more effective at driving the lane than Stevie (with Payton basically inventing the 13 foot floater shot that so many small guys use now), and Payton's one of the best low-post scoring point guards ever. ADVANTAGE: PAYTON
PASSING: Kidd: 9.2 APG, 3.5 TOPG, 2.8 Asst/TO Nash: 7.1 APG, 2.4 TOPG, 2.54 Asst/TO Payton 6.9 APG, 2.3 TOPG, 3 Asst/TO Another category where Nash's last two seasons have skewed people's perception of how his career compares to the other 2. Nash fans will quickly want to point out that career averages are a misleading stat for him because of his lower totals his first 5 years. However, in Nash's 4 seasons as a starter in Dallas, only one year- his last in 03-04- did he average more than 7.7 assists, and that was 8.8 a game. His two MVP seasons in Phoenix have shown a big jump in assists, but it's ONLY TWO SEASONS. I'd give the clear edge to Kidd in this category because in his 13 NBA seasons, he's averaged MORE THAN 8.8 a game 10 times, and in the three seasons he didn't his averages were 7.7 (his rookie year), and in his last two it was 8.3 and 8.4. No doubt Payton's 3rd in this category but his numbers for a point guard are still well above the norm. ADVANTAGE: KIDD
REBOUNDING: Kidd: 6.5 RPG Nash: 2.8 RPG Payton 4.5 RPG Here's where Kidd is underappreciated. There's plenty of forwards and centers in the league today who can't average 6.5 rebounds a game in one season, let alone over a 13 year career (I'm talking to you, Eddy Curry)! This is part of the reason why Kidd is one of the best ever leading the fast break, because many times he STARTS the fast break! Payton's still a good rebounder for the position, and Nash is about where you expect him to be. ADVANTAGE: KIDD
DEFENSE: Kidd: 2.2 Stl, .3 blk Nash: .8 Stl, .1 blk Payton 2.1 Stl, .2 blk NBA All-defense: Payton 8 (all were 1st team selections), Kidd 8 (1st-5 times, 2nd-3 times), Nash 0 This is where The Glove really shines, and where Nash really drops. Kidd has been a solid defender his entire career as his 8 All-Defensive selections show (although how in the hell did he get voted 1st team this year?), and Nash has a better chance of dunking in a game (which he never has) than being called a good defender. GP? One of the best defensive players ever, at any position. I never saw Walt "Clyde" Frazier of the New York Knicks play back in the '70's, but people who have forgotten more about basketball than I'll never know claim he's the best ever. Fine, if that's true than I'm all the more impressed with Frazier because Payton, as his 8 FIRST TEAM ALL-NBA DEFENSE selections, along with winning the Defensive Player of the Year in '95-'96, show he was one helluva defender. ADVANTAGE: PAYTON
You can't "throw out" Nash's 2 MVP awards, as he's been one of the best players in the league the past 2 seasons. However, those 2 seasons don't blow away the best 2 for Payton or Kidd, and that's before we even look at Nash's inability to play defense. Nash's last two years have been great, but none of his 4 seasons in Dallas as a starter compare to Payton and Kidd's averages in their 10 best years, let alone 4. Both guys have been consistently great for 10 years each, and when looking at who's had the best careers, MVP's or not Nash just doesn't compare. As for Payton and Kidd, although Kidd's a better passer and rebounder, I would take Payton's scoring and defense, along with solid numbers for a PG passing and grabbing boards, over JKidd.
