Just in time for the season opener tonight, here's the final installment of my NBA Preview. Happy Halloween everybody!
8. Boston Celtics, Atlantic (33-49) Over/Under 36.5 wins: OVER The C's are young and they don't have a great coach, but Paul Pierce will be an allstar again, rookie PG Rajon Rondo has the makings of a star (as well as a new Boston cult hero), and this COULD be the year Al Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins finally put it all together. Or most of it. Or some of it. Hey come on, it's the East. They've got enough to get in. I'd say something nice about Wally Szczerbiak, but you know I'm not capable of it.
7. Detroit Pistons, Central (64-18) Over/Under 50.5 wins: WAY UNDER No I'm not kidding, no I'm not drinking as I type this, and yes this prediction would make me less popular in Detroit than Matt Millen (and yes this would be assuming anybody reads this hahaha). The Pistons lost Ben Wallace who was the one guy they couldn't afford to lose, and I can't believe more people aren't making a bigger deal of this. Let's see, the guy was your leader, your best defensive player, one of the league's best rebounders AND set the tone for everybody else by being tough and unselfish on a team that relied heavily on him to do all of those things. He was also the glue that kept Ra-weed Wallace in check, allowing him to free lance and play pressure-free (how do people forget what a complete and total space-cadet the guy was in Portland? That Ra-weed will resurface this season. I guarantee it). People also seem to forget that what made DEtroit great was their CHEMISTRY!! As individuals none of them were high draft picks or all-NBA type guys, but together they were truly one of the league's best teams. Now their heart and soul is gone, and I'm telling you, that's a REALLY BIG DEAL! Nazr Mohammed doesn't fit their style at all and does not provide a defensive presence in the middle (the guy couldn't beat out Rasho Nesterovic last year in San Antonio for pete's sake), so the team's best players are all guys who want to play on the perimeter and there's nobody left to rebound or do the dirty work on the inside.
Oh but that's not all. Big Ben ripped coach Flip Saunders apart on his way out of town, and there's a mutiny on the horizon here. These guys, who had won a title without Flipnosis, were quick to point the finger at him at the first signs of trouble last year. Why'd they not make it back to the Finals last year? Because of Flip they said. Well they'll be more trouble this year, and the players will be throwing all the blame at Flip's feet. Add to this the FACTS that the Pistons have been extrememly fortunate when it's come to injuries during their run (they've had ZERO to their key guys. That will change), and that they have no depth whatsoever (honestly after McDyess, who in their bench rotation is decent? Anyone?) this spells a recipe for well, maybe not disaster, but there's no way Detwah gets anywhere close to 50 wins this year. None. In a watered-down East they're still a playoff team, but the end of the Pistons run is here. Call me a Pistons-hater, but this is how it will happen.
6. Indiana Pacers, Central (41-41) Over/Under 43.5 wins: OVER 2 of the following 3 things will happen for the Pacers this year: Al Harrington will make a big splash in his return to Indy, Jermaine O'Neal makes a big return from being chronically injured, and Stephen Jackson will try to stop shooting people. IF 2 of those 3 go right, this is definitely a playoff team. Not to mention more PT and maturity for 2nd year forward Danny Granger, and as little reliance as possible on Jamaal Tinsley would also be a good thing.
5. Orlando Magic, Southeast (36-46) Over/Under 38.5 wins: WAY OVER Yeah I have a man-cruch on Dwight Howard. Deal with it. The New Moses Malone will add more offense to his already stellar game, and we might even see more from Darko this year than just waving a towel on the bench and giving awkward hi-5's to guys as they're coming off the court. Grant Hill might be healthy (ok so his chances of being healthy are as good as Horatio Sans chances of leaving SNL and being a movie star), and Jameer Nelson will continue the rebirth of the point guard in the NBA. What's Orlando missing? Vince Carter, that's what. This is the best team in the East with Vince. Where will he go in free agency next summer? Probably Charlotte. Too bad.
4. New Jersey Nets, Atlantic (49-33) Over/Under 46.5 wins: OVER Just not sure about this team. I think Jason Kidd's play will drop this year, and although Marcus Williams has looked good in preseason, is he really ready to handle a lot of NBA minutes? We'll see. Richard Jefferson is consistent (well as long as he's not playing for Team USA that is), and Vinsanity's in a contract year, so he should be a monster. Still they have little to nothing in the post, and still no real depth coming off the bench. All of that should be good for an easy division title in the worst division in the league, but I'm not even sure they get out of the first round.
3. Miami Heat, Southeast (52-30) Over/Under 51 wins: UNDER Well I've already pissed off Pistons fans, so why not continue with Heat fans too? Although really everyday in Miami it's 80, sunny, there's a nice beach, there's a lot of pretty plastic girls down there, AND your team are the defending champs, so how upset can you really get as a Heat fan? They had the perfect storm to win it last year, where EVERYTHING (including the commish's office demanding Dallas be called for fouls on DWade as soon as he got of bed in the morning) went right for them. This year? Yeah not so much. The only 3 guys you can really count on doing more of what they did last year are Wade, Udonis Haslem and James Posey. Everybody else is a wildcard heading into the season. GP and Zo were running on fumes last year, so I'm not sure how much they contribute this season- and remember, it was Payton not Jason Williams, who was getting the crunchtime minutes in the playoffs. JWill and Employee #8 played nicey-nice to get a ring, but I have a hard time believing they'll buy in again. And Shaq? He might as well wear a Hawaiian shirt for a jersey and sip mai tai's during timeouts (I got a maitai but I ordered a margarita. And I asked for no salt. NO SALT but there were big grains of salt on the rim). What else does the man have to prove? More importantly, what else does the man WANT to prove? History shows dominant centers DO NOT get better once they hit their early 30's, especially 7'1, 350 pound former dominant centers who haven't been in shape for the regular season the past 4+ years, got his title without Kobe, and has a nice fat contract in one of the countries coolest cities. You tell me, what does Shaq have left to prove? Heat fans will be lucky to see him repeat last year's averages of 20 pts and 9.2 boards a night. I hope DWade was working on his shoulders in the offseason, because he's going to be carrying this team all year.
2. Chicago Bulls, Central (41-41) Over/Under 48.5 wins: OVER See here's an example of where chemistry matters, and where when everybody buys in, they're a pretty damn good team. I think the Bulls are clearly behind Dallas, San Antonio and Phoenix in the West (and maybe the Clips and Lakers too for that matter), but in the East they should be fighting for top spot. This was already a hungry scrappy team that played solid fundamental basketball (and yet were somehow strangely enjoyable to watch), and now they get a guy in Ben Wallace who does more of those things. Big Ben's got a chip the size of the Hancock Tower on his shoulder, and the rest of the Bulls think they should have beat Miami in the opening round series last year, so motivation will not be an issue. These guys will run, D up, and will win 50+ games. They're still missing a go-to scorer (although I think in the right circumstances Ben Gordon can be that guy), or at least a go-to post scorer, but even if they don't make a move at the deadline, they'll be in the hunt for the Finals. Well at least until the semi's or conference finals when suddenly anytime a guy in a Bulls uniform so much as thinks about breathing they call a foul on him and send Lebron or DWade to the line. But hey until then, enjoy Bulls basketball.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers, (50-32) Over/Under 49 wins: OVER This isn't as much about Lebron, as it is his supporting cast. Here's a list of things that went right for the Cavs last year: Lebron and Side Show Bob. A list of things that went wrong: everything else. AND THEY STILL WON 50 FREAKING GAMES!!!! And in a tougher conference last year with better teams!! We know Lebron will be better (which might be the scariest thought of any this Halloween. I mean good gawd, how good can this kid be?!?!) and his teammates can't be any worse. THeir big free agent signings last year were all terrible. Larry hughes because of injury and Damon Jones because of well, maybe he was worried more about his fashion sense than shooting %. I don't know, but he was awful. Donyell Marshall? No explanation either but he was unwatchable. Drew Gooden was mostly hurt or mostly inconsistent and Big Z's main contributions were a neck beard and looking European (and by the way, I STILL think they should have moved him in the offseason. He does not fit their style at all, takes touches away from Lebron, and well, did you see the guy's playoff neckbeard? Cavs fans were getting trapped in it on his way to and from the locker room! It was a travesty. A Sham-trave-mockery!) So Lebron will be better, his team will be better, and with homecourt advantage and Stern and the refs on their side throughout the playoffs, I don't see how the Cavs aren't in the NBA Finals this season.
If the National League is being called AAAA baseball (and of course an 83 win team from the Senior Circuit looks primed to win the World Series) in the NBA what do we call the East? The NBDL II? NBDL Sr? NCAAA? Unlike the West, where there are at least 3 elite teams, there's not one here. Not one. And yes Heat and Piston fans, I realize that both Miami and Detwah are still in the conference. Let me say again: NOT ONE SINGLE ELITE TEAM IN THE EAST!!! But somebody has to win it, and chances are that one of those somebodies will win the NBA Title. Why? Because of the 1-on-5 playoff factor and that the East has two of the best players in the league in Lebron James and Dwyane Wade and David Stern and the refs LOVE superstars. Just love 'em. Mark it down, one of those two gentlemen will be in the Finals. You'll have to wait till tomorrow to find out which one. First, the non-playoff teams in the East (and by the way, according to my calculations if we seeded the playoffs as the 16 best teams in the league regardless of conference, the NBDL2 would get 4 teams, maybe 5. Seriously.)
As an added bonus for the NBDLEast preview, I'll be throwing in each team's Vegas win projections for the upcoming season. The idea here is to pick the over or under for how many wins Vegas predicts a team will get. Who doesn't LOVE playing the Over/UNder game? Exactly! Keep in mind Vegas sets odds and projections like this to get as much action as possible on both the overs AND unders for each team. So for example the defending NBA Champion Miami Heat are predicted to win 51 games. The Vegas wiseguys might not necessarily believe Miami will win 51 games this year, that's just the number they think will get the most people betting on both sides. Remember, Vegas makes money by you losing money.
Two from the East that really surprised me: Detroit at 50.5 and Cleveland at 49. Let's just say that if I were a betting man, I'd be betting the farm on the over for one and the under for the other. You'll find out soon enough which one's which. And oh by the way, no team in the league was predicted to win 60 games. Miami was predicted to win the most in the East at 51, and in the West Dallas had the most at 56, with Phoenix and San Antonio right behind at 55.5. Alright on with it then!
15. Atlanta Hawks, Southeast Division (2005 record 26-56) Over/Under 28.5 wins: UNDER I mean, what can you say about the Hawks? Well other than more people in Atlanta would show up to hear Gilbert Gottfried read the phone book than watch a Hawks game. It's that bad. They had a great trading chip in Al Harrington. He was the only young-allstar-caliber player available this summer, and what did the ATL get for him? Draft picks, and considering that lately they've used draft picks on Shelden Williams and guys not named Chris Paul, that's not a good sign. And before all 4 Hawks fans who still give a damn start saying they've got the best chance to win the Greg Oden sweepstakes, let me say this: the worst team never gets the 1st pick (see every draft since 2000 when the Nets got KMart) and even if you DID get the 1st pick with your luck Oden would either go back to school or more likely, come out and the Hawks would draft another small forward. Draft time for Hawks fans, or really just being a Hawks fan, must be a lot like Will Hunting getting a beating from his foster dad: he'd just lay out a wrench, a belt, or Gilbert Godfried and say choose. I think Gilbert's supposed to be reading at the Barnes & Noble in Buckhead on Thursday! Go Hawks!
14. Philadelphia 76ers, Atlantic (38-44) Over/Under 34 wins: UNDER In one of the most intriguing races in decades, we're now essentially down to 2. What race is that you ask? Why who can be the most incompetent NBA GM the longest of course! It's been a 4 horse race for awhile, but Isiah Thomas in NYC and Billy Knight in Hotlanta should be out of jobs by this time next year. That leaves us with Minnesota's Kevin McHale (and believe me, my money's on him) and Philly's Billy King. It's hard to choose right now, really. Both men have done an excellent job of putting the most over-paid non-talented players around a superstar, and both have made some awful trades, but McHale really excels when it comes to drafting. His draft record is uglier than me in a speedo. Knight's strength is killing his cap with a ballooning payroll, which at $94 million, is 2nd highest in the league. Sure he could have dealt Allen Iverson this summer for relief and a chance to start over, but why ruin a good thing? Not when you've got Sam Dalembert and Kyle Korver locked in until 2036. Chris Webber? He's owed $43 million over the next 2 years. And hey to top it all off, King is paying almost $18 million this season to Jamal Mashburn and Todd McCulloch, two guys who've been out of the NBA for years! Yes it's a race that should go right down to the finish folks, so don't miss it! For Sixers fans, um yeah, you might want to miss it.
13. Toronto Raptors, Atlantic (27-55) Over/Under 34 wins: UNDER Sorry but I'm just not buying the Raptors hype. I know Bryan Colangelo helped put together that fiesty Phoenix Suns squad, and that now the Raptors are supposed to be Phoenix East (well except for the difference in climate, currency, and number of times somebody will yell "take off eh!" when you knock over their beer). Although I think Bryan's on the right track and the team could be better, last time I checked the Raps don't have Steve Nash. Or Shawn Marion. Or Amare Stoudamire. Or Raja Bell, Barbosa, or the rest of the Suns roster. Is Chris Bosh one of the game's most underrated players? Definitely, and Bargnani should be a good rookie. But otherwise there's just not much talent here, and even in the NCAAA that's not going to be good enough. And TJ Ford? Yes he's quick and likes to run, but he can't shoot, doesn't pass as well as Nash (nobody does but just throwing it out there) and he breaks easier than a soda cracker. They're going in the right direction and Colangelo will have them in the playoffs soon enough, but not this year.
12. Charlotte Bobcats, Southeast (26-56) Over/Under 32.5 wins: OVER Speaking of teams that are going in the right direction, the Bobs (or the Shats. Yeah I like the Shats better) have amassed some good young talent and could put together a nice season. They don't have anyone as good as Bosh, but with Emeka Okafor, Sean May, Ray Felton, and Adam Morrison they not only have the college allstars, but a young nucleus that will make some noise this year. And don't forget about the league's most underrated player, Gerald Wallace. I think these kids will be 10 wins better (think about it: they won 26 last year with Okafor and May out for most of the year. Wallace had to play center!!) at least, but with youth comes inexperience. Morrison will be the scorer they've craved, but for all the game-winners and big baskets he'll score, he'll have some 2-11 shooting nights too. Ray Felton could be an allstar this year, and May and Okafor are a formidable low-post combo. If they can find a solid veteran leader (i.e. NOT Vince Carter) and add one more lottery pick next offseason this is a dangerous team for 2007, and one that at the very least will be fun to watch for 2006- if you're not blinded by the blaze-orange jerseys first. Good lord those things are uglier than Morrison's stache.
11. New York Knicks, Atlantic (23-59) Over/Under 31 wins: OVER What would I do if I coached the Knicks this year (obviously I'm not qualified because I haven't bankrupted a semi-pro league and decimated a Canadian basketball franchise, as well as America'a most storied one, but bear with me)? I'd give half my roster the "Tim Thomas": last year the Bulls sent Thomas home. They told the guy they've got no room for somebody with his attitude and sent him home (again Clippers fans, THIS is the guy you'll be seeing at Staples Center. Not the one from the playoffs last year. I'm not sayin I'm just sayin). Marbury, Francis, Jalen Rose, Mo Taylor, and Jerome James- send them all home. Curry, and Crawford,you're on notice. Channing Frye, David Lee, Jared Jeffries, REnaldo Balman and Nate Robinson are your future, and the further you keep the cancers away from these kids, the better. And I know, I know I KNOW!!! Knick fans wouldn't stand for it. Well let me tell you something: ALL those guys I'd send home are "Me First" guys, and no matter how talented they are, they're not taking you to the playoffs because they refuse to play together. PLay them all and you're not going to the playoffs. Send them home and you're not going to the playoffs but your young guys get better. You tell me which option is better. And I don't believe for one second The Cancers will rally around Isiah. No way. They're getting huge guaranteed dollars. That's all they care about. If they didn't rally last year, they won't do it this year. But since Isiah brough in all the Me Firsts, they'll play and they'll probably get close to 40 wins and the playoffs, but not close enough.
10. Washington Wizards, Southeast (42-40) Over/Under 39.5 wins: UNDER DO NOT doubt Gilbert Arenas. Not for a second. The man loves revenge more than Chuck Norris, Rambo and Max Cady combined. Last year the East coaches didn't vote him as an allstar reserve, so he spent the 2nd half of the season putting on camoflauge and a red bandana and made it his personal mission to make those coaches pay for what they did to him in Nam! Now he got cut by Team USA this past summer. Who's on his revenge list? USA Hoops director Jerry Colangelo? Coach K? Every player on the roster? Try every damn person who gets in his way, that's who! You think you're better than Gilbert? You think Gilbert's not good enough? You think Gilbert's going to take this! You'll get what's coming to you! And you'll get it good!!! Too bad the rest of the guys on the Wiz don't care this much. If they did they might be a playoff team. In the meantime Colangelo, Coach K and hell every single one of you better watch your back! Gilbert says you'll pay!
9. Milwaukee Bucks, Central (40-42) Over/Under 40.5 wins: UNDER Have I mentioned I'm really starting to like Milwaukee? A great baseball town (whose team needs to go back to the old jerseys), good beer, lots of brats, grown men wearing mustaches like it's 1973, hell there's even a river running through town out to Lake Michigan. It's really growing on me. I just wish I could say the same for the Bucks. The jerseys are new and yet old at the same time, and really that's Bucks basketball for you. They've got the big white center (or BWC as I like to call them. A Bucks staple. Somewhere Brad Lohaus and Frank Brickowski are smiling), no stars, and a bunch of guys who hustle and do all the little things- well except Charlie Villaneuva who is as new to the concept of effort as Katie Holmes is to the idea of "natural birthing." I think he's accepting the idea about as well too. Oh and just for ####e the Bucks have registered sex offender Rueben Patterson too. Does he have to walk around to every fan at every game and tell them his name and what's he done? Ok that was just mean. Sorry, not enough beer or brats this morning. I get cranky like that. I have no other real analysis (why start now?) here. The Bucks will be good, but not good enough to make the playoffs.
With Twins Fever sweeping the nation, the Vikings scoring less than and the Gophers football season essentially over, you know what that means: it's NBA preview time!!! Sure nobody but me cares or is all that interested, but we're gearing up for the 2006-07 season that could be the most wideopen in decades. Literally. My 3rd annual NBA Preview is forth-coming, (click here and scroll down for 2004 and 2005) but first, some things you should know for the upcoming year...
THE MORE THINGS STAY THE SAME, THE MORE THEY CHANGE? This was one of the most boring offseasons in memory. The free agent crop was weak, and the draft, although deep with decent players, provided no impact guys. When guys like Al Harrington or Peja Stojakovic switching teams are considered the big moves of the summer, you know there just wasn't much available. Honestly, I was going to give you the 5 biggest/most important offseason moves, but I could only find 3! The teams you saw last year won't look much different on opening night.
THE EAST IS MEDIOCRE-- AT BEST Big Ben Wallace going to Chicago from Detroit was THE move of the offseason, but it actually made the conference worse, not better. East Coast fans will shout about how the East has won 2 of the last 3 titles, and they have the game's 2 best players in Lebron and DWade. While true, it can't hide how average the conference is, and once again how far behind the West they've fallen. Big Ben makes the Bulls better but it DOES NOT make them the favorites in the East (they're KG away from doing that). Losing Wallace in Detroit brings the Pistons back to the pack, now giving them no inside presence and still no bench. Miami got a year older, and since they were old to begin with, that means they got worse (and in Shaq's case, a LOT worse), so DWade is going to need the refs on his side more than ever to get the Heat back to the Finals.
THE WILD WILD WEST WILL BE JUST THAT For the first time in a long time there's no dominant team. There's no preseason juggernaut like the Spurs of past years or the Shaq/Kobe Lakers. 14 of the 15 teams out here have legitimate postseason aspirations. Seriously. They break down like this: FIGHTING FOR... BEST RECORD: Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix THE 4th SEED: Houston, LA Clippers, LA Lakers A PLAYOFF SPOT: Everbody else but Portland Everybody's got issues, everbody's got flaws, so all the little things will make the biggest difference in who makes the playoffs out West. Oh and so does David Stern's stupid 3 division format, meaning SOMEBODY in the Northwest has to make the playoffs.
HOORAY REGULAR SEASON! I can't tell you how I know this, but I do: the regular season should be the most fun to watch since the mid '80's. Stern's going to give hardcore basketball fans like me the run and gun beauty of how basketball should be played in the regular season. Thanks to Mike D'Antoni, Steve Nash, and the Phoenix Suns, the point guard, play-making and the fast break has become relevant again. With the success of Dallas' wide-open attack, more teams will be going that route this season, including Toronto, Milwaukee, and Chicago out East. With only one true dominant center left in the game (surprise! It's Yao, not Shaq), teams are finally realizing that putting their best 5 guys on the floor and going is a recipe for success. Well at least until the postseason, that is...
BOO CREEPY 1-ON-5 BASKETBALL Because when the playoffs roll around we're going back to the 1-on-5 basketball we saw Miami play last year. Stern knows that superstars still drive his ratings. High scoring basketball is all well and good but for average or casual fans to watch in the playoffs, Stern knows you need DWade or Shaq or Lebron or Kobe. And he'll get them. Wade and King James will be parading to the free-throw stripe like the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade. The East is so watered down this year, I am GUARANTEEING either Miami or Cleveland goes to the Finals this year. That's right, you're getting an iron-clad MWSR guarantee. Wade and Lebron are two megawatt stars on average teams. In the West they'd be fighting to get in, but in the East they'll be battling for a spot in the Finals. Actually, do you want me to ruin the ending, and tell you who'll be representing the East? Hint: he'll be assuming the throne as the "King" of the NBA.
ONE PLAYER COULD DECIDE THE 2007 NBA CHAMP That one guy would be Mr. Kevin Garnett. Although the Wolves have a playoff shot because of their division, a LOT has to go right for them to have a chance, and I just don't see all of it coming together. For KG's sake, hopefully he realizes that this is his best year to win a championship somewhere else. This coming summer there'll be plenty of free agents and impact kids in the draft so the NBA landscape will look dramatically different a year from now. Wolves VP Kevin McHale is too gutless to deal Garnett because it will prove what most of already know: McHale's tenure running the Wolves has been a complete failure. He's had 11 seasons to put a quality team around his Garnett and he hasn't done it. They're further away from a championship now than when Garnett came to the Wolves in '95. So he'll hang onto his superstar until he forces his way out. IF KG forces a trade by the deadline, teams will line up with offers because in a wide-open season, a player of Garnett's caliber could vault a ton of teams into the Finals. The Bulls are the most obvious example, as he's the perfect fit there AND they have the draft picks/young players/cap room to make it work. KG in Chicago automatically makes them the best team in the East. Still, I see McHale locking himself in his North Oaks mansion until season's end, his eyes closed and hands over his ears, pretending the KG era in Minnesota isn't over. It is, and if KG forces a trade by the deadline, it's going to make this wide-open year even more exciting.
Minnesota Timberwolves fans may not want to hear it, but it has to be said: it's time for KG to go. I thought Startribune columnist Jim Souhan put it best last week, saying
"What is wrong with the Wolves, Garnett can't fix alone, and that's his only option if he stays."
I couldn't have said it any simpler. Garnett is in a no-win situation because the roster is essentially locked for his remaining three years on his contract. Thanks to the moves made by GM Kevin McHale, the Wolves are capped out for the remainder of Garnett's tenure in Minnesota, meaning not only can they not add any viable players via free agency, but they can't trade for any either because the guys that ARE eating up salary (i.e Mark Blount, Marko Jaric and Troy Hudson) are virtually untradeable at this point. So what you're stuck with is a team that at its best is good enough for the 7th or 8th playoff spot (meaning you get whipped in the first round) or at worst the 7-14th worst lottery team (and not bad enough to get into the top 5 where you've got a decent chance at landing a high pick).
So basically the Wolves you saw last year are the Wolves you'll see through 2008-- and that's IF Garnett doesn't force a trade before then, which he almost certainly would. Garnett deserves a shot at at title, and there is not only the perfect destination out there for him right now, but it's a place that can also give the Wolves some great building pieces back. Not only that, but a trade for Garnett now is going to net you more than it would say in February before the deadline when everyone knows you HAVE to trade him.
Ladies and gentlemen, the next destination for Kevin Garnett should be: the Chicago Bulls.
Bloggers and fans and even the media often make a common error when suggesting trades: they only look at one side. People like to think you can combine a few of your fringe players together in a big bundle and bring back an all-star. Not going to happen, even with Isiah Thomas still employed in New York (at least until Christmas). Chicago has been a rumored destination for KG for awhile because he spent his senior year of high school there, AND the Bulls have some nice young players, as well as the cap room to absorb KG's mammoth contract without Minnesota having to take back a bad contract to match salaries. The rumors continue to swirl because it makes so much sense for both sides.
First there's Chicago. GM John Paxson has rebuilt the Bulls beautifully with young players and plenty of cap space, but the signing of Ben Wallace earlier this week for a fat salary actually ENHANCES the Wolves bargaining position. With Garnett, plus Wallace as the inside defender and rebounder every team would love, along with uberpoint guard Kirk Heinrich and a bevy of talented wing players, the Bulls are the new favorites to represent the East in the Finals. And although I don't think the BUlls would be better than Phoenix, Dallas or San Antonio, as the Heat showed this past year and the Pistons showed 3 years ago, if you're good enough to get there, even if you're not favored on paper, you can be good enough to win it. Garnett's 31, Wallace is 30, and together you've got a 4 year window for a championship run. Without Garnett the Bulls still have a gaping hole at the 4 spot, and no inside scorer. They're improved, but probably only the 4th best team in the East. And Paxson knows this. The Ben Wallace signing turned Garnett from a luxury to a necessity for the Bulls. No one else makes as much sense for them as he would, and nobody would work as well as he would. He's the guy they now HAVE to have to make the Wallace signing a good move.
For the Wolves? It's the only trade partner that makes sense, as long as you get one thing: Chicago's 1st round pick for the upcoming 2007 draft- and along with it, the right to swap that pick with the Knicks (which you're 99.99999999% guaranteed to do because of how awful the Knicks will be this coming season). Paxson has been very, very, VERY reluctant to include this pick in any deals for anybody. Why? If you haven't heard, the 2007 draft is being lauded by people in the basketball community as anything from the best draft in years to the best in decades. There are 5 bonafide potential superstars expected to declare, the best of the bunch being Ohio State-bound center Greg Oden. Oden has been touted since he was a high school freshman as the best big man since Tim Duncan or David Robinson. After he destroys the Big 10 next year, you'll see that those comparisons are accurate. The other elite prospects aren't too shabby either and would go a long way towards hitting the fast-forward button on rebuilding for whatever team is lucky enough to have a pick in the top 5. And here's the thing: if the Wolves demand that Chicago/Knicks pick be included for Garnett, Minnesota has a very real chance of having not one but TWO top 5 picks next year. That's a helluva way to start the post-KG era in Minnesota.
I did some research on this (thanks to realgm.com for the info) and it looks like McHale wasn't quite as dumb as I'd feared. Although his trade of Sam Cassell AND a conditional #1 pick for Marko Jaric is still one of the worst deals of the decade so far, the Clippers are by no means guaranteed Minnesota's pick for 2007. The pick is top 10 protected through 2011, so if you dealt Garnett, the WOlves would be a very bad team, all but assuring them of keeping their pick. So there's plus what should be the pick from an also very bad Knicks team means the Wolves now have 2 chances at landing Oden in the lottery, or at worst, two picks in the top 6 or 7 o####reat draft.
So that pick HAS to be included. Again, Paxson will not want to part with this for the reasons mentioned above, but it just doesn't make sense for Minnesota to trade KG if this pick isn't included. Paxson knows how valuable the pick is, but he also knows the time is now to get KG to make a run for the title, and his opportunity may not be as good if he waits.
IF the pick is included, it's reasonable for the Wolves to get two more guys back. I know a draft pick and two non-allstar players for a guy like Garnett doesn't sound like much for Wolves fans, but hear me out. I've already explained what getting that pick will do, and adding two more from the Bulls young core would be a steal. One of those guys NEEDS to be Tyrus Thomas, the Bulls lottery pick from this past draft. He's long, athletic, and most importantly, the kid works his #### off. The biggest gamble teams have to take on these kids now is whether they're going to be willing to work or not. With most of them you never can tell, but Thomas has been a workout warrior in his two years at LSU, and from everything I've read, that should continue. He's about as safe a bet to be an allstar down the line as anyone selected in the 2006 draft, and if the Chicago had Wallace AND Garnett he wouldn't play much anyways, so he's expendable.
Your third guy is one of the following three: combo guard Ben Gordon, swingman Luol Deng, or swingman J.R. Smith. Gordon was a hot rumor for awhile, and although I really like him, the Wolves drafting combo guard Randy Foye eliviates the need to get BenGo. As good as these two could be, having two guards 6'4 or under in the backcourt would cause you problems defensively. Deng is a Dukie that came out a year or two too early, but is a great athlete, good defender, smart player, and a great kid to boot. He's expendable for Chicago because of how well Andres Nocionni played in the past playoffs. Still, the guy I'd target would be Smith, the 6'6 super athletic wingman who doesn't turn 21 until September. The Bulls just picked him up from the Hornets, as he got into Coach Byron Scott's doghouse and couldn't get out. Still the kid has oodles of potential, and has more of that magical "upside" than the other two. Better still, the kid is getting paid next to nothing, so if he doesn't pan out in his one-year tryout or cops more of that bad attitude, he's still very tradeable because there'll ALWAYS be somebody willing to take a chance on a then 22-year old athletic swingman with a cheap contract.
2006 would be a tough year. Ok, ok, 2006 for the Wolves would be an out and out Gong Show. But if you're not going to make the playoffs WITH Garnett, it'd be worth it to put yourself in this situation without him to be completely unwatchable for 2006-- and then have the best young team in basketball in 2007 and beyond. For the start of 2007 you'd have two high lottery picks who'd be able to make an immediate impact, plus Ty Thomas and Foye with a year under their belt, JR Smith, AND a healthy Rashad McCants. That's 6 guys for 5 spots. Give them 2007 to battle it out, and then package one or two with your remaining gawd-awful contracts for cap relief and role players to fill out your roster. Voila!! In less than 2 years you go from borderline playoff contender with no hope, to burgeoning playoff contender with the brightest future in the league!
You never want to have to deal a player the caliber of Garnett, but if you have to, this is the best you're going to find at turning things around in a hurry. As Jer said, Garnett deserves a shot to win a title, and he'd get it right now in Chicago. The Wolves deserve a new guy running the team, but since they can't get that, a white hot young nucleaus of talent to replace The Franchise is as good as they can ask for.
Welcome back to the on-going still running division-by-division NFL Preview. Sure, I should probably be commenting on the NBA Finals, but really The Sports Guy said everything yesterday better than I could have. Dwyane Wade is an amazing talent, but watching him go 1-on-5 and knowing the refs will blow the whistle on Dallas everytime he drives, even if a) Wade is the one initiating contact by jumping into somebody or throwing a forearm out to create space or b)there's no contact whatsoever. Wade's a fantastic player, and apparently I'm alone in believing that he's good enough to not have the refs help him by sending him to the line everytime he misses a shot because MY GAWD if Wade missed he MUST have been fouled!! Anyway, congrats to the Heat for being the NBA 1-on-5 champs of 2006.
Anywho, back to football. The South boasted 3 playoff-caliber teams last season, getting two into the postseason. This year, the Saints could make it 4 playoff eligible teams, but the division will only get 1 playoff team for 2 reasons: 1) 3 of the 4 have some glaring holes that will hold them back, and 2)the schedules are just brutal. In this age of parity, scheduling definitely makes a difference, and not only will these 4 beat up on each other, their matchups with a much improved AFC North will be just as tough. Still, I believe the NFC's Super Bowl representative resides here. Now on with it!
4. New Orleans Saints: I'm more bullish on this team than most. Drew Bress could be the most important free agent signing in team history, because his impact on the team and community will go well beyond his accomplishments on the football field. Since high school Brees has been cast as the underdog, and it's a role he's relished. After his release by San Diego (honestly, what the hell was GM AJ Smith thinking?), Brees once again has a chip on his shoulder, and joins a franchise and town with ones as well. Yes he signed here for the big bucks, but he also truly believes he can lead this team to a title, and help rebuild the great city of New Orleans. I for one, am a believer. Sure he has no Antonio Gates or Ladanian Tomlinson, but his line and receivers are better, RB Deuce McAllister is on schedule recovering from knee surgery, and didn't they draft somebody pretty good in the 1st round? WHAT HAS TO GO RIGHT: Too bad getting an easier schedule isn't an option. They open with 2 of their "easiest" games on the road, at Cleveland and at Green Bay. And no matter what kind of teams they have, the Dawgpound and Lambeau are two of the toughest venues in football. After that week they play a grand total of 3 more teams who had a sub .500 record in 2005: Philly, Baltimore, and San Fran. Best of luck with that one. Otherwise, they need to get something out of their defense. The D-line looks solid (and it damn well better considering before this year it seemed like they spent a #1 pick on a D-lineman for 200 years in a row), but as usual the back 7 are questionable. MOST INTRIGUING MADDEN PLAYER: Reggie Bush, HB/WR/KR/PR/ It's not just that Bush is the most anticipated video game athlete (VGA) in forever, it's that he's the first guy who could really truly possibly legitimately challenge video Bo Jackson as the greatest VGA of all-time. Now for those of you who had the honor and privledge of playing with Video Bo back in the day in Tecmo Bowl, well I don't have to tell you that thinking that anyone, even someone as electrifying as Reggie, could challenge Bo's VGA supremacy is a mighty bold statement. But I'm standing by it. If EA does the man justice (i.e. 97+ speed, 473 agility, 875 acceleration and of course 85 hands as well as mid 70's breaktackle), well then I like his chances. And please, when you get the new Madden, change Reggie's number back to 5. It's the least you can do.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers For years the Bucs and their flaming yellow unis were as laughable as the Clippers, Cardinals, and Washington Generals. Since their uniform change to red, black, something called "puse" and like 19 other colors, the Bucs have been known for a great defense, winning, and that big damn pirate ship in the back of the endzone. The defense, led once again by Derrick Brooks (who seems like he's been around since the days of Red Grange), will have to be as feisty as ever, because this is one average offense. The schedule is downright cruel. They've got 6 games within their division, 4 with the AFC North, and 4 with the NFC East (which could be the league's toughest division). Their other 2 games? THe Bears and Seahawks. Two other random Bucs notes: * they have a backup corner named Blue Adams. How many times do you think he's heard "You're my boy Blue!"? Not enough, I'd say. * Watching the World Cup reminds me that somewhere, former kicker Martin "soccer celebration" Gramatica is crying, wailing, and hurting himself celebrating. WHAT HAS TO GO RIGHT: A lot. Chris Simms has to do something he's never done as a football player: live up to his vast potential. Joey Galloway at 76 years old (or 35) needs another career year because Michael Clayton's idea of an offseason workout program has been...well not working out, let's say that. Cadillac Williams needs to stay on the field because even though Mike Pittman played admirably in relief of Caddy last year, he's entering that "uh oh" age for running backs at 32, so the wheels could fall off at any moment. Oh and the O-line? Still no better than average. As I said, this team needs a LOT to go right, and I just don't see it all happening. MIMP: Caddy Williams, RB Honestly there's nobody here that really intrigues me- well except guard Toni Fonoti, who could be the first NFL player over 500 pounds. Or 600. During those NFL Skill competition shows they should have an eating contest where Fonoti goes against Takeru Kobayashi, the world eating champion who weighs like 12 pounds. Kobayashi (not to be confused with Kobayashi from the Usual Suspects. Boy there's a mistake you don't make twice) would eat like 50 hotdogs in 10 minutes, and then Fonoti would just eat him, and wash him down with a soda. That'd be fun.
2. Atlanta Falcons The Falcons had themselves a nice little offseason (maybe Bed, Bath & Beyond...I don't know if we'll have time!), trading for underachieving DE John Abrahams, who, if he wants to, could be a bigtime pass-rusher off the edge. Lawyer Malloy can still play as the strong safety, and the Falcons flat-out stole Tech CB Jimmy Williams in the 2nd round. Expect him to be the starter opposite fellow Hokie alum Deangelo Hall by midseason. Offensively, it's the same old story: run, run, run, and then occasionally Mike Vick will try and be a quarterback. Seriously, people, when can we stop pretending Vick will ever be a decent NFL QB (I reached that point at about season 3)? This will be his 6th NFL season, and here's a list of the things he's never done in any one of those years: * started all 16 games * completed more than 57% of his passes * thrown for more than 16 TD's * had a QB rating higher than 82
He's a helluva athlete with a rocket arm, but he'll never be an effective QB in the NFL. Never. Last season which was the 5th year in a row he was supposed to have a "breakout season" he actually regressed throwing only 15 TD's (19th in the NFL) to 13 INT's for 2412 yards (20th) and a measly 73.1 QB rating (25th). Out of 32 starting QB's in the league his numbers are average. Barely. But hey who am I to burst the bubble of all the Vick Lovers out there? Keep believing that this really IS his breakout year, even though the evidence to support it says otherwise. Keep on...keep on truckin'. Ok good talk. WHAT HAS TO GO RIGHT: Get Matt Schaub on the field because he gives them a better chance to win than Vick does. Seriously. And before you go throwing his meager numbers as a starter at me, there's a reason Hotlanta wanted a 1st round pick for the guy this offseason. He can be a productive QB in this league, and he could be more productive than Vick starting this year. Too bad it won't happen. MIMP: Deangelo Hall, CB I know I know I know everybody just loves to use Vick in Madden. BUt for me, I love to use DeAngelo Hall. He's not the biggest guy at 5'10, but his 98 speed and crazy agility, acceleration and jumping always make him one of the first guys I trade for. Oh and he's only 23. Wow.
1. Carolina Panthers This is the team that could dominate the NFC. The Seahawks finally found an answer to stopping WR Steve Smith, which was make ANYONE else on the offense beat you. This year that won't be so easy. Keyshawn Johnson is a solid possession guy and should make defenses pay for quadruple teaming Smith (it also makes Keary Colbert better by putting him where he should be, as a #3 guy), and when tailback DeShaun Foster gets hurt (the ex UCLA Bruin hasn't played a full season in his 3 years in the league), DeAngelo Williams can step in and actually improve the running game (he SHOULD be starting by the end of the year). The line is very good and Delhomme is dependable and playoff-tested. THe team's only real weakness on offense is at TE, and the fact they somehow didn't manage to draft one of the 17 athletic pass-catching ends in the draft. As Papa Burgandy said to Brian Fantana "That doesn't even make sense." Defensively this is as good as it gets for me. The D-line is the best in football, and the corner tandem of Chris Gamble and Kenny Lucas may be too. And the rest of the guys lining up out there aren't slouches either. This is Carolina's conference to lose. WHAT MUST GO RIGHT: Here's some stats from the 2005 regular season to chew on: Smith had 103 of the teams 269 receptions (that's 38%), 1563 of 3485 yards (45%), and 12 of 25 TD's (48%). No other Carolina receiver had more than 34 catches, 441 yds, or 4 TD's. No matter how amazing Smith is (and he IS amazing!), teams are not going to let him do that to them again. Every team on Carolina's schedule has been watching that NFC Championship tape to see how Seattle finally stopped Smith (which was generally by using 3 or 4 guys on every play against him). The defense and running game are good enough to win the division, but to get to the Super Bowl, the passing game has to be a threat, and that means Keyshawn needs to accept his role as the #2 guy (something he's never had to do thus far), and be damn good at it. MIMP: Steve Smith, WR After the Panth beat the Bears in the playoffs last year, here's what I said about Smith:
Honestly, how good is Panthers receiver Steve Smith (12 catch, 218 yds, 2 TD-oh and he ran for another 26 too)? To paraphrase Red from Shawshank Redemption "the last thing that went through the Chicago Bears heads is how in the hell did Steve Smith ever get the best of them?" It's become a cliche to say that Smith is the ONLY weapon in the Panthers offense, but seriously, when one of the best defenses in football have a week to prepare for him and he not only beats them but DESTROYS them? What do you do with that? What else is the guy capable of? Could he cure cancer? Find Bin Laden? Talk KG into staying in Minnesota? Nothing would surprise me anymore. For the record, Smith IS the only option Carolina has. And for the record, his numbers yesterday were good for half the teams catches, 68% of their receiving yards, and 2/3rds of their TD's. As Ron Burgandy would say "I'm not even mad- that's AMAZING!"
I don't think I was exaggerating. Not even a little bit. The question for the new Madden won't be how good will they make Steve Smith? It's can they make Steve Smith good enough? Remember, Steve Smith has counted to infinity-TWICE!
* I don't pretend to understand golf, but was yesterday's final round of the US Open the football equivalent to a 3-0 Super Bowl, where both teams turn it over 12 times each, miss 8 field goals, and only total 300 yards between them? NOBODY could make a shot yesterday! I understand these Major courses are supposed to be incredibly challenging, but the winner finishing at +5? Only 12 golfers scoring under par for a day the ENTIRE TOURNAMENT? And nobody did it more than once? Either Wingfoot was too tough, or nobody showed up.
* Poor Lefty Mickelson. In his post-match interview, he looked and sounded like a guy who had driven his car into the side of house while sleep-walking. It's like he had no idea what he was doing on 18! He IS the real life Tin Cup! He's like the guy who's up big and black jack and can't walk away. He has to have that rush to the very end, even if it means losing everything!
* The only guy more upset than Lefty or Monty yesterday had to be Tiger Woods. The guy misses the cut Friday at +12, which of course ended up being only 7 shots off the lowest score! Tigger's feeling like had he just made a putt here or there on Friday to make the cut, that tournament was his.
* I felt kind of like Lefty Mickelson Saturday after watching the US/Italy futbol match. Had I really just spent the past 2 hours watching a 1-1 tie where the States' only goal came from Italy scoring on itself? How had it happened? Where was my brain when I made this decision? Why didn't I get up from the couch and go do something else? Had I just watched a game where players are not rewarded for passing to a wide-open man (because it's offsides)? Did I really watch a sport where a supposedly good team (The Italians) would drop to the ground like they had been shot if an American player got anywhere near them? I mean, I've heard of diving, but they were taking this to an entirely new level. Twice a guy was taken off on a stretcher, acting as though the pain in his leg was so bad they may have to amputate. And both times, literally just a minute or two later, the guy was back on the field fresh as a daisy. I was shocked that the mob, one of the toughest group of men on the planet, could come from the same country as these floundering, cowering babies. No wonder soccer's never caught on in America-- we actually like our athletes to act like men!
* Speaking of men, there are few bigger in sports right now than Dwayne Wade. Anyone out there still want to take Lebron or Kobe over Wade as the NBA's best player? Anyone? Left for dead after losing the first two games of the series (including by yours truly), Wade has strapped the Heat to his back and has been the One-Man-Mission he's had to be. Yes he's gotten the benefit of some calls, including the one that got him to the line to hit the game-winning free throws, but a) that's nothing new in the NBA for superstars to get calls and b) David Stern couldn't help him hit those free throws. He did all of that on his own!
* By the way, Wade's 3 consecutive Finals games of 35+ points puts him in rarified air: only Shaq (twice), Iverson, Jordan, Rick Barry, and Elgin Baylor have ever done it.
* And what happened to Dirk's "clutchness"? As much as I love The Diggler, I've ripped on him in past season's for not showing up in the playoffs. After his performances against Phoenix, and especially San Antonio, I thought he had finally moved past his old choking ways. But they've certainly returned in THe Finals. So was his "Clutchness" in the first 3 rounds an abberition? Is there some rule where a German player in another sport cannot overshadow his country when they're playing in the World Cup? Is there a time-limit on how successful a guy can be after admitting to liking David Hasselhoff? Is there only so many times we can reference that his dad REALLY wanted him to play handball instead of basketball before the basketball gods finally say "You know what? Maybe you SHOULD have played handball!"?
* In case you're wondering, Dallas wins game 6 tomorrow night, and Miami wins game 7 Thursday night.
* Finally, game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals is tonight (and it's on NBC, a channel you actually get!). Here's my question for the day: what are the Hurricanes telling people in Carolina to get them to show up? That there's a tractor pull during the intermission? There'll be a NASCAR race on ice? Maybe free beer and Toby Keith cd's for anyone showing up wearing red? Free gun-rack for their pickup for the first 10,000 people?
* Is it too early to award the NBA Championship to the Mavs? The Heat were atrocious last night in their 99-85 loss to Dallas, and Heat fans can't have high hopes that the next 3 games being played in South Beach will help turn this around. My buddy Ben, who's got a great tactical mind, thought there was no way Miami would allow Dallas to dictate tempo for 7 games. Throught the first two games they haven't, yet Miami is still down 0-2. First give credit to the Mavs for this. They've been a hybrid team, able to run when they need to, and execute in the halfcourt when needed. With Dirk, Jason Terry, Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse, Devin Harris and Marquise Daniels, the Mavs are the best one-on-one team in basketball, and yet all of those guys are excellent in transition too. It's been a killer combination all playoffs long. Dallas' strategy looks to be to make Dwayne Wade work for his 20-30 points a night, double-team Shaq before he even thinks about touching the ball, and dare anybody else to beat them. Thus far, Miami hasn't done it, and although the Heat may take game 3 (anybody think the refs could give a couple-or thirty- calls to the Heat Tuesday night to try and make this interesting?) or 4, Dallas just looks to have too much.
* If I told you that a center in last night's game was 2-5 from the field and 1-7 from the line for 5 points, you'd probably guess it was Erick Dampier, right? Or Desagana Diop? Nope, it was Shaquille O'Neal. Think about that-- SHAQ SCORED 5 POINTS IN AN NBA FINALS GAME!!! Honestly, is this the end of the Diesel as we know him? I mean I don't care how old the guy is, he's still 7'1 and 350, and even if all 5 Mavs are draped over him like a curtain, the Big Aristotle should still score more than 5. What has happened?!? * I do know this: Dwayne Wade is certifiably insane if he signs a contract extension with Miami this summer. Just plain crazy.
* My Mariners and the Local 9 (your Minnesota Twins) have played two series in the last 2 weeks, and there's some interesting parallels there: Twins catcher Joe Mauer is hitting leading the world with in hitting at .386 (can somebody talk to him about the sideburns? Please? This isn't 90210) and Mariners outfielder Ichiro is 2nd at .366 (he's hitting .461 (47-102) since May 17). In the team's series last week, Mauer and Ichiro were a combined .528, and the WORST day for either of them was Mauer's 2-4 day Wednesday. Think about that. It will blow your mind!
* Twice in those series the two best young pitchers in baseball squared off: the Twinks Franisco Liriano and the M's Felix Hernandez (by the way, just a little giddy that we've seen Good Felix 2 games in a row. He absolutely dominated the Angels yesterday. King Felix has returned! King Felix has returned!) each won once, and both were essentially lights out in their performances. I was in attendance for their duel a couple of Friday's ago in the Big Giant Ugly Garbage Bag, and watched all of the rematch at the Safe last week. These two are going to be very good for a long, long time. Too bad we can't say the same about their teams!
* What's just absolutely ridiculous about Mauer right now is that he has zero protection in the Twins lineup. None. Zip. ZILCH! NADA! The Big Mountie Justin Morneau is the only Twin in the top 30 in the AL in homeruns (14) or RBI's (47)(First the Twins finally get a new stadium approved, and now a Twin could finish with 30 HR's in a season for the first time since 1987? Start building your bombshelter because there's no room in mine!). In case you're wondering, the Royals are the only other team that can make that claim. If this is the Mauer we can expect, Twins fans should start a riot if GM Terry Ryan isn't allowed to spend money on some hitting this offseason. With Mauer, Liriano and Johan Santana, Minnesota has three of the best building blocks in the bigs, and if they wait 4 years for the new stadium to start putting talent around it, they're going to be sorry.
* I'm putting together the ol' NFL preview for 2006. Last year I started strong (scroll about 2/3rds of the way down), but ended up having to do too much in too short a time to finish. This year I'm going to start posting sooner (like say this week!) in hopes of previewing all 8 divisions. * I've admitted before (and will again) that I'm not the greatest at predictions, but I realized even the "experts" have trouble doing this as well. Let's look at what the Big Boys picked, and compare to what actually happened in 2005:
What actually happened: PLayoff teams (* denotes wild card)
NFC- Giants, Bears, Bucs, Hawks, Skinnies*, Panth* AFC- Pats, Bungles, Colts, Bronch, Steelers*, Jags* Super Bowl- Steel over Hawks.
Fox Sports: Jay Glazer: SB: Falcons over Colts NFC: Eagles, Bears, Falcons, Rams, Giants*, Panthers* AFC: Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Chargers, Chiefs*, Jets*
Me: Super Bowl: Never picked
NFC: Eagles, Vikes, Rams, Panth, Bucs*, Lions*,
AFC: ?? (I never posted)
So what did we learn? A) I need to actually finish my picks for an accurate comparison, and b) This is as much for fun as it is for accuracy. NOBODY picked the Seahawks to make the playoffs let alone the Super Bowl!! Just wanted to throw that out there so when all my picks go wrong this year, at least you'll know I won't be the only one.
* So I was looking through some old posts yesterday, trying to find one that I swore I wrote comparing Adam Morrison to Wally Sczcerbiak, proving that Morrison will be a better pro than people believe. Apparently I never wrote it (which means I WILL write it this week), but I did find the following from my NBA preview...
Mark Cuban needs to deal the Diggler now for as much as he can get, and build around someone else because the Dirk will not lead a team to the title. I had high hopes for him that maybe, just maybe, he'd be the first European to step-up when it mattered. Of course that was right before chewing out Jason Terry at the end of game 5 and then missing all 5 of his shots in OT. Maybe if he didn't shave his head every year things would be different, but I doubt it.
I was right at the time I wrote it, but boy I'm REALLY wrong now!! Dirk Nowitzki has risen from a good NBA player to one of the league's 5 best in the post season (I'll at least point out that he hasn't shaved the 'do this year), and I think this has been a good lesson for me to learn. Dirk hadn't come up big for the Mavs when it mattered, but he worked his tail off this offseason, and is now pretty much unguardable. He's shown more of a willingness to go into the post, and is killing the smaller guys down there that used to give him trouble. And the outside shooting? Yeah, it's still there.
I wrongly believed that if you couldn't get it done in the playoffs on more than one occasion, as was the case with The Dirk, then you'd NEVER get it done. Well Dirk has proven me wrong, as did Lebron. Unless you're Peyton Manning or Alex Rodriguez (who never have been and never will be clutch), apparently you CAN learn to be clutch!!
* A poll on ESPN.com had Dirk rated as the league's 5th best player behind Lebron, Wade, Kobe and Duncan. I agree with all of those except Duncan- even when 100% (which TD was not this year), his free throw woes make him less valuable than Dirk.
* Not that I'm ever right with predictions, but I like Dallas to win the series. They've got the size to contain Shaq (and by "contain" I mean make him work for his points), and guys like Josh Howard and Marquise Daniels to slow down Dwayne Wade (and by "slow down" I mean keep him shooting under 70% from the field). They also have the quickness on the perimeter to do what Detroit couldn't: drive to the basket on the slower Heat forwards and guards. Oh and have I mentioned Dirk is unguardable? Because he is. SHould be a fun series, although it's ridiculous we have to wait till Thursday to start it.
* Stanley Cup Finals start tonight (congrats to the 4 or 5 households that actually get OLN). I'm cheering for Edmonton because they're a Canadian team (and their best players are generally Canadian) and I hate Carolina (although I obviously support all the great Canadian players the Canes have). Carolina is a prime example of why the NHL isn't working and will never work in the South: Carolina has been one of the worst franchises for attendance since their inception. Sure, the place will be packed for the games, but how many people down there really care? The South has very passionate sports fans (as college football and that sport where guys drive cars and turn left for 4 hours will attest), but unless the team's in the Finals, the people don't show up. Send the team back to Hartford, send the Coyotes back to Winnipeg, and get rid of Florida, Tampa, Atlanta, Nashville, and Anaheim. Please.
* I may be losing my manhood, but I'm actually interested in the World Cup of Futbol. I still find a full soccer game to be boring, but the intensity with which fans in the rest of the world follow this sport, well it's impressive, and almost enviable. I still love the story that in the 2002 World Cup, Ireland (my ancestors) voted to change their clocks to Korean time (something like 9 hours ahead) so that they wouldn't have to watch the games at work. I don't think the amendment passed, but that's still impressive. THAT'S a passionate fan base. Of course the Irish didn't make it this year, and neither is Scotland (my other "homeland") but oh well.
* I'm REALLY ready for football season!! These June and July Sundays when there's NOTHING on reminds me how much I miss football.
* Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Chris Henry was arrested for the 3rd time in 6 months. He's the early leader for the 2006 winner of the "Onterrio Smith Award for Athlete Who Just Doesn't Get It".
Be it the flair or the hair, it's becoming impossible for basketball fans not to love Steve Nash. The captivating Canadian put on yet another improbable show last night, leading his Phoenix Suns to a 121-118 win over Dallas in game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Nash's 27 points and 16 assists led TNT analysts Chuck Barkley, Kenny Smith and Reggie Miller to wish they had brought ball shoes instead of loafers so they could play with Nash. Barkley went so far as to call Nash "one bad whiteboy" (his best line of the interview was when he asked "Hey Steve? Do y'all ever even talk about playing defense?" Classic Chuck.). With back-to-back MVP's and now a real shot at winning a Title this year, Nash is becoming part of the "greatest point guards ever" talk.
Rightfully so? I don't think so. He's been brilliant this season, but Nash has a long way to go to stack up with not only the Magic's and Big O's and Stockton's, but to even be considered the best point guard since Stockton. Ahead of him on the list? Gary Payton and Jason Kidd. Both have had stronger and more consistent careers than Stevie, and were better all around players. Now keep in mind, I grew up a Sonics fan and Payton's my 2nd favorite player of all-time (1.Shawn Kemp 2.GP 3.Kevin Garnett 4.Chris Webber), so I'm biased. But I believe had Payton played in New York, LA, Chicago, or Boston he'd be mentioned as a top-5 all-time point guard, not barely cracking the Top 10.
Comparing career stats for these three is difficult. Whereas Payton and Kidd have been consistently good for a long time, Nash had such a slow start, and as you'll see, that's really the biggest point in all of this. Nash didn't start more than half of his teams' games until his 5th season, which means he's only been playing at a high level for 6 years. Payton's career averages have dropped because he continues to hang on at age 37, but he had 10 seasons of averaging at least 19 points and 7 assists, garnering 9 all-star selections in that time. Kidd has been consistent from the get-go, and although he hasn't been quite the same since microfracture surgery last season, that's still at least 10 all-star-type years on his resume.
SCORING: Kidd: 14.6 PPG (FG%: 40.2, 3pt%: 33.2, FT%: 77.9) Nash: 13.5 PPG (FG%: 47.7, 3pt%: 42.1, FT%: 89.6) Payton 16.9 PPG (FG%: 46.7, 3pt%: 31.9, FT%: 73) Nash is certainly the best shooter of the group, and I was suprised to see that Kidd has better percentages from 3 and from the charity stripe than Payton, however GP's only taken 95 more 3's in his career, but has taken 1221 more free throws. When you look at their career totals, it shows that Payton is clearly a better scorer than Nash. In his 6 years as a fulltime starter, only three times (not including his MVP year last year, where he averaged 15.5) did Nash average more than 16 a game, whereas Payton has averaged 16+ in a season 10 TIMES and JKidd has done it 4 times. Not only that but GP scored more than Nash's career high of 18.8 of this season 9 TIMES IN HIS CAREER!! Payton and Kidd both are more effective at driving the lane than Stevie (with Payton basically inventing the 13 foot floater shot that so many small guys use now), and Payton's one of the best low-post scoring point guards ever. ADVANTAGE: PAYTON
PASSING: Kidd: 9.2 APG, 3.5 TOPG, 2.8 Asst/TO Nash: 7.1 APG, 2.4 TOPG, 2.54 Asst/TO Payton 6.9 APG, 2.3 TOPG, 3 Asst/TO Another category where Nash's last two seasons have skewed people's perception of how his career compares to the other 2. Nash fans will quickly want to point out that career averages are a misleading stat for him because of his lower totals his first 5 years. However, in Nash's 4 seasons as a starter in Dallas, only one year- his last in 03-04- did he average more than 7.7 assists, and that was 8.8 a game. His two MVP seasons in Phoenix have shown a big jump in assists, but it's ONLY TWO SEASONS. I'd give the clear edge to Kidd in this category because in his 13 NBA seasons, he's averaged MORE THAN 8.8 a game 10 times, and in the three seasons he didn't his averages were 7.7 (his rookie year), and in his last two it was 8.3 and 8.4. No doubt Payton's 3rd in this category but his numbers for a point guard are still well above the norm. ADVANTAGE: KIDD
REBOUNDING: Kidd: 6.5 RPG Nash: 2.8 RPG Payton 4.5 RPG Here's where Kidd is underappreciated. There's plenty of forwards and centers in the league today who can't average 6.5 rebounds a game in one season, let alone over a 13 year career (I'm talking to you, Eddy Curry)! This is part of the reason why Kidd is one of the best ever leading the fast break, because many times he STARTS the fast break! Payton's still a good rebounder for the position, and Nash is about where you expect him to be. ADVANTAGE: KIDD
DEFENSE: Kidd: 2.2 Stl, .3 blk Nash: .8 Stl, .1 blk Payton 2.1 Stl, .2 blk NBA All-defense: Payton 8 (all were 1st team selections), Kidd 8 (1st-5 times, 2nd-3 times), Nash 0 This is where The Glove really shines, and where Nash really drops. Kidd has been a solid defender his entire career as his 8 All-Defensive selections show (although how in the hell did he get voted 1st team this year?), and Nash has a better chance of dunking in a game (which he never has) than being called a good defender. GP? One of the best defensive players ever, at any position. I never saw Walt "Clyde" Frazier of the New York Knicks play back in the '70's, but people who have forgotten more about basketball than I'll never know claim he's the best ever. Fine, if that's true than I'm all the more impressed with Frazier because Payton, as his 8 FIRST TEAM ALL-NBA DEFENSE selections, along with winning the Defensive Player of the Year in '95-'96, show he was one helluva defender. ADVANTAGE: PAYTON
You can't "throw out" Nash's 2 MVP awards, as he's been one of the best players in the league the past 2 seasons. However, those 2 seasons don't blow away the best 2 for Payton or Kidd, and that's before we even look at Nash's inability to play defense. Nash's last two years have been great, but none of his 4 seasons in Dallas as a starter compare to Payton and Kidd's averages in their 10 best years, let alone 4. Both guys have been consistently great for 10 years each, and when looking at who's had the best careers, MVP's or not Nash just doesn't compare. As for Payton and Kidd, although Kidd's a better passer and rebounder, I would take Payton's scoring and defense, along with solid numbers for a PG passing and grabbing boards, over JKidd.
