Welcome back to the on-going still running division-by-division NFL Preview. Sure, I should probably be commenting on the NBA Finals, but really The Sports Guy said everything yesterday better than I could have. Dwyane Wade is an amazing talent, but watching him go 1-on-5 and knowing the refs will blow the whistle on Dallas everytime he drives, even if a) Wade is the one initiating contact by jumping into somebody or throwing a forearm out to create space or b)there's no contact whatsoever. Wade's a fantastic player, and apparently I'm alone in believing that he's good enough to not have the refs help him by sending him to the line everytime he misses a shot because MY GAWD if Wade missed he MUST have been fouled!! Anyway, congrats to the Heat for being the NBA 1-on-5 champs of 2006.

Anywho, back to football. The South boasted 3 playoff-caliber teams last season, getting two into the postseason. This year, the Saints could make it 4 playoff eligible teams, but the division will only get 1 playoff team for 2 reasons: 1) 3 of the 4 have some glaring holes that will hold them back, and 2)the schedules are just brutal. In this age of parity, scheduling definitely makes a difference, and not only will these 4 beat up on each other, their matchups with a much improved AFC North will be just as tough. Still, I believe the NFC's Super Bowl representative resides here. Now on with it!

4. New Orleans Saints:
I'm more bullish on this team than most. Drew Bress could be the most important free agent signing in team history, because his impact on the team and community will go well beyond his accomplishments on the football field. Since high school Brees has been cast as the underdog, and it's a role he's relished. After his release by San Diego (honestly, what the hell was GM AJ Smith thinking?), Brees once again has a chip on his shoulder, and joins a franchise and town with ones as well. Yes he signed here for the big bucks, but he also truly believes he can lead this team to a title, and help rebuild the great city of New Orleans. I for one, am a believer. Sure he has no Antonio Gates or Ladanian Tomlinson, but his line and receivers are better, RB Deuce McAllister is on schedule recovering from knee surgery, and didn't they draft somebody pretty good in the 1st round?
WHAT HAS TO GO RIGHT:
Too bad getting an easier schedule isn't an option. They open with 2 of their "easiest" games on the road, at Cleveland and at Green Bay. And no matter what kind of teams they have, the Dawgpound and Lambeau are two of the toughest venues in football. After that week they play a grand total of 3 more teams who had a sub .500 record in 2005: Philly, Baltimore, and San Fran. Best of luck with that one.
Otherwise, they need to get something out of their defense. The D-line looks solid (and it damn well better considering before this year it seemed like they spent a #1 pick on a D-lineman for 200 years in a row), but as usual the back 7 are questionable.
MOST INTRIGUING MADDEN PLAYER: Reggie Bush, HB/WR/KR/PR/
It's not just that Bush is the most anticipated video game athlete (VGA) in forever, it's that he's the first guy who could really truly possibly legitimately challenge video Bo Jackson as the greatest VGA of all-time. Now for those of you who had the honor and privledge of playing with Video Bo back in the day in Tecmo Bowl, well I don't have to tell you that thinking that anyone, even someone as electrifying as Reggie, could challenge Bo's VGA supremacy is a mighty bold statement. But I'm standing by it. If EA does the man justice (i.e. 97+ speed, 473 agility, 875 acceleration and of course 85 hands as well as mid 70's breaktackle), well then I like his chances. And please, when you get the new Madden, change Reggie's number back to 5. It's the least you can do.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
For years the Bucs and their flaming yellow unis were as laughable as the Clippers, Cardinals, and Washington Generals. Since their uniform change to red, black, something called "puse" and like 19 other colors, the Bucs have been known for a great defense, winning, and that big damn pirate ship in the back of the endzone. The defense, led once again by Derrick Brooks (who seems like he's been around since the days of Red Grange), will have to be as feisty as ever, because this is one average offense. The schedule is downright cruel. They've got 6 games within their division, 4 with the AFC North, and 4 with the NFC East (which could be the league's toughest division). Their other 2 games? THe Bears and Seahawks.
Two other random Bucs notes:
* they have a backup corner named Blue Adams. How many times do you think he's heard "You're my boy Blue!"? Not enough, I'd say.
* Watching the World Cup reminds me that somewhere, former kicker Martin "soccer celebration" Gramatica is crying, wailing, and hurting himself celebrating.
WHAT HAS TO GO RIGHT:
A lot. Chris Simms has to do something he's never done as a football player: live up to his vast potential. Joey Galloway at 76 years old (or 35) needs another career year because Michael Clayton's idea of an offseason workout program has been...well not working out, let's say that. Cadillac Williams needs to stay on the field because even though Mike Pittman played admirably in relief of Caddy last year, he's entering that "uh oh" age for running backs at 32, so the wheels could fall off at any moment. Oh and the O-line? Still no better than average. As I said, this team needs a LOT to go right, and I just don't see it all happening.
MIMP: Caddy Williams, RB
Honestly there's nobody here that really intrigues me- well except guard Toni Fonoti, who could be the first NFL player over 500 pounds. Or 600. During those NFL Skill competition shows they should have an eating contest where Fonoti goes against Takeru Kobayashi, the world eating champion who weighs like 12 pounds. Kobayashi (not to be confused with Kobayashi from the Usual Suspects. Boy there's a mistake you don't make twice) would eat like 50 hotdogs in 10 minutes, and then Fonoti would just eat him, and wash him down with a soda. That'd be fun.

2. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons had themselves a nice little offseason (maybe Bed, Bath & Beyond...I don't know if we'll have time!), trading for underachieving DE John Abrahams, who, if he wants to, could be a bigtime pass-rusher off the edge. Lawyer Malloy can still play as the strong safety, and the Falcons flat-out stole Tech CB Jimmy Williams in the 2nd round. Expect him to be the starter opposite fellow Hokie alum Deangelo Hall by midseason. Offensively, it's the same old story: run, run, run, and then occasionally Mike Vick will try and be a quarterback. Seriously, people, when can we stop pretending Vick will ever be a decent NFL QB (I reached that point at about season 3)? This will be his 6th NFL season, and here's a list of the things he's never done in any one of those years:
* started all 16 games
* completed more than 57% of his passes
* thrown for more than 16 TD's
* had a QB rating higher than 82

He's a helluva athlete with a rocket arm, but he'll never be an effective QB in the NFL. Never. Last season which was the 5th year in a row he was supposed to have a "breakout season" he actually regressed throwing only 15 TD's (19th in the NFL) to 13 INT's for 2412 yards (20th) and a measly 73.1 QB rating (25th). Out of 32 starting QB's in the league his numbers are average. Barely. But hey who am I to burst the bubble of all the Vick Lovers out there? Keep believing that this really IS his breakout year, even though the evidence to support it says otherwise.
Keep on...keep on truckin'. Ok good talk.
WHAT HAS TO GO RIGHT:
Get Matt Schaub on the field because he gives them a better chance to win than Vick does. Seriously. And before you go throwing his meager numbers as a starter at me, there's a reason Hotlanta wanted a 1st round pick for the guy this offseason. He can be a productive QB in this league, and he could be more productive than Vick starting this year. Too bad it won't happen.
MIMP: Deangelo Hall, CB
I know I know I know everybody just loves to use Vick in Madden. BUt for me, I love to use DeAngelo Hall. He's not the biggest guy at 5'10, but his 98 speed and crazy agility, acceleration and jumping always make him one of the first guys I trade for. Oh and he's only 23. Wow.

1. Carolina Panthers
This is the team that could dominate the NFC. The Seahawks finally found an answer to stopping WR Steve Smith, which was make ANYONE else on the offense beat you. This year that won't be so easy. Keyshawn Johnson is a solid possession guy and should make defenses pay for quadruple teaming Smith (it also makes Keary Colbert better by putting him where he should be, as a #3 guy), and when tailback DeShaun Foster gets hurt (the ex UCLA Bruin hasn't played a full season in his 3 years in the league), DeAngelo Williams can step in and actually improve the running game (he SHOULD be starting by the end of the year). The line is very good and Delhomme is dependable and playoff-tested. THe team's only real weakness on offense is at TE, and the fact they somehow didn't manage to draft one of the 17 athletic pass-catching ends in the draft. As Papa Burgandy said to Brian Fantana "That doesn't even make sense." Defensively this is as good as it gets for me. The D-line is the best in football, and the corner tandem of Chris Gamble and Kenny Lucas may be too. And the rest of the guys lining up out there aren't slouches either. This is Carolina's conference to lose.
WHAT MUST GO RIGHT:
Here's some stats from the 2005 regular season to chew on:
Smith had 103 of the teams 269 receptions (that's 38%), 1563 of 3485 yards (45%), and 12 of 25 TD's (48%). No other Carolina receiver had more than 34 catches, 441 yds, or 4 TD's. No matter how amazing Smith is (and he IS amazing!), teams are not going to let him do that to them again. Every team on Carolina's schedule has been watching that NFC Championship tape to see how Seattle finally stopped Smith (which was generally by using 3 or 4 guys on every play against him). The defense and running game are good enough to win the division, but to get to the Super Bowl, the passing game has to be a threat, and that means Keyshawn needs to accept his role as the #2 guy (something he's never had to do thus far), and be damn good at it.
MIMP: Steve Smith, WR
After the Panth beat the Bears in the playoffs last year, here's what I said about Smith:

Honestly, how good is Panthers receiver Steve Smith (12 catch, 218 yds, 2 TD-oh and he ran for another 26 too)?
To paraphrase Red from Shawshank Redemption "the last thing that went through the Chicago Bears heads is how in the hell did Steve Smith ever get the best of them?" It's become a cliche to say that Smith is the ONLY weapon in the Panthers offense, but seriously, when one of the best defenses in football have a week to prepare for him and he not only beats them but DESTROYS them? What do you do with that? What else is the guy capable of? Could he cure cancer? Find Bin Laden? Talk KG into staying in Minnesota? Nothing would surprise me anymore. For the record, Smith IS the only option Carolina has. And for the record, his numbers yesterday were good for half the teams catches, 68% of their receiving yards, and 2/3rds of their TD's. As Ron Burgandy would say "I'm not even mad- that's AMAZING!"

I don't think I was exaggerating. Not even a little bit. The question for the new Madden won't be how good will they make Steve Smith? It's can they make Steve Smith good enough? Remember, Steve Smith has counted to infinity-TWICE!

Heyo! Here we go with my 2nd annual NFL preview...well ok more like the 1st annual, since I only got halfway through last year. The goal here is to post one division a week, and the theme this year will be what needs to go right for a team to succeed- and it's assumed a team has to stay healthy. But BESIDES health, what has to go right?

Also, I'm probably "too old" to still be playing video games, but I still do, as do some of my buddies (most of whom are married with real jobs). For us, the upcoming August release of Madden Football 2007 (for PS2 or XBox Live) is one of the most anticipated ever because of an incredible rookie class, and cool stuff like "lead blocking control", new & improved mini-camp drills (which you'll be able to do IN SEASON for things like injury rehab!! No news on whether they'll have facial rehab in case, you know, your starting Qb rides a motorcycle without a helmet and goes head-first into a windshield), and so much more! Oh, and my new favorite two word phrase: "highlight stick". So in anticipation, I'm providing a player from each time that I'm excited to try out and/or trade for when Madden comes out. As Vince Vaughn would say in The Breakup..."it's not me, it's the little digital guys with big hearts!" (I know it got bad reviews, but trust me, if you like Vince it's worth it just for the Madden video game scene. I promise. And also for "Band of Brothers...you should rent it sometime!")

Ok, I'm starting with this division because it's where my Super Sleeper Upset Special for 2006 resides. In order to qualify for the SSUS you have to be a team who missed the playoffs last year, that had a good offseason and draft, and has a weaker schedule because of last year's poor performance. Oh, and it has to be a team nobody's talking about, which means not Miami, Baltimore, or San Diego-which is German for a whale's... nevermind.

4. San Francisco 49ers
We get surprises every year, but this will not be one of them- well unless you count a surprise as the 9ers winning more than 3 or 4 games. Drafting Alex Smith last year was a mistake (Browns fans should be happy I'm not running the 9ers because I would have said "screw it!" to the stupid theory that you don't take a wideout #1. Braylon Edwards was the right choice), and Trent Dilfer will give them a better chance to win. That said it doesn't matter much because there's no weapons in this offense outside of rookie tight end Vernon Davis. Yes I'm aware they picked up Antonio Bryant but there's a reason he's on his 3rd team already. Manny Lawson was a solid pick, but otherwise the defense bores me.
WHAT HAS TO GO RIGHT:
Davis needs to perform like his digital self in Madden on starter level, which would mean catching 20 passes a game for like 10 TD's. Still, short of the players from the other 31 teams contracting the avian bird flu, Alex Smith becoming the next Joe Montana, and Manny Lawson turning into Charles Haley there really can't be enough go right for the Niners to win more than a couple of games this year.
MOST INTRIGUING MADDEN PLAYER: Vernon Davis, TE
If he's not at least 90 speed I'm taking the game back...ok no I'm not, but he'd better be at least 90 speed. He'll be the 2nd most traded for player in the whole damn game. And if you can't guess who #1 is, well, ask Texans fans who they'll be trading for because their team inexplicably didn't draft him.

3. Arizona Cardinals:
This would not be my SSUS. Yes Edgerrin James will be a major upgrade at tailback, and the receiving duo of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Bolden is now the league's best, but the Cards did nothing to upgrade their biggest weakness: the O-line. Defensively Arizona's on the right track, but they'll be average at best, which is not good enough to help them compete for the division title.
WHAT HAS TO GO RIGHT:
Kurt Warner HAS to stay healthy, and considering he hasn't started 16 games since 2001 (and has only played in 29 of a possible 64 in the 4 seasons since then) the chances of that happening are slim to none. Look, I like Matt Leinart, and I think he'll make a good pro, but he's not going to set the league afire in his first year no matter how good Bolden, Fitz and Edge are. With that O-line and defense, it'll be another non-playoff year if Leinart has to play major minutes this year.
MOST INTRIGUING MADDEN PLAYER: Larry Fitzgerald, WR
There'll be plenty of people interested in Leinart because you can make rookie QB's into MVP's the first season (I'm not sure how you get around this. The passing cone was impossible and I don't know anyone who uses it), but I still like Fitz. Could EA go ahead and make his catching 110 on a 99 point scale? Larry Davis is another favorite because he could be close to 500 pounds by the time training camp starts.

2. Seattle Seahawks:
Hey Seahawks fans: STOP CRYING! And I'm not even talking about the officiating in the Super Bowl. You got ####! We get it. It happens. I'm talking about the whining about how the Minnesota Vikings cheated your team out of All-pro guard Steve Hutchinson with dirty contract negotiations. Just stop! If your team hadn't have been so cheap and would have slapped the franchise tag on him instead of the transition (it would have cost them roughly $600k a year more to do so), you wouldn't have lost him. But you did. And giving the same kind of contract to Nate Burleson was cute but really, who would you rather have? Burleson or the best guard in football AND a 3rd round pick? Your java's a little too strong or you've been listening to the new Pearl Jam a little too loud (not that there's anything wrong with that) if you even have to think about that one.
WHAT HAS TO GO RIGHT:
Well actually let's look at what's gone wrong...and it starts with that Super Bowl loss. The last team to lose a Super Bowl and even make the playoffs the following season were the 2001 Tennesee Titans, so your loss in the Big Game is one strike against you. We mentioned losing Hutchinson, who you're not going to replace, so that's 2. The third? Well, since we're talking about Madden today let's not forgot the Madden Curse, and this year's coverboy Shaun Alexander. That's three strikes against you going back to the playoffs, so a LOT is going to have to go right to overcome it.
MOST INTRIGUING MADDEN PLAYER: Seneca Wallace, QB/WR
He's always fast, and if they have the drill where you can improve accuracy he can turn into a decent QB.

1. St Louis Rams:
Ladies and gentlemen: your 2006 Super Sleeper Upset Special!! And it's ok if you want to steal this as your own idea and tell all your friends and then look like a genius when the Rams win the division, get a first round bye, and make some noise in the playoffs. Really it's ok. We both know where you got the idea. Tailback Steven Jackson will become a household name as new coach Scott Linehan understands that when Jackson gets 20+ touches a game, the team wins (the three times it actually happened last year the Rams were 3-0 and Jackson averaged almost 129 on the ground on 23 carries for an avg of 5.6 per carry). THe line is solid, and they have more weapons than Saddam was rumored to have, including Marc Bulger at QB, Torry Holt and a slew of receiving options, including 2 intriguing rookie tights ends. The secondary is a weakspot, but the D-line should be improved and the signing of LB Will Witherspoon from Carolina will prove to be one of the best of the offseason.
WHAT NEEDS TO GO RIGHT: The schedule already has gone right. 6 win seasons are never fun, but you're at least rewarded with a weaker schedule (including the Niners and Cards twice, and the Packers, Lions, and Raiders thrown in for good measure), getting 3 of their 4 toughest games at home (Broncos, Bears, Chiefs). Besides that they have to get improvement from their defensive backs (the sooner 1st rd pick Tye Hill is ready to start, the better), and the offense needs to adjust to not having to throw 744 times a game (the Rams were 4th in the NFL in pass attempts with 599) and start running the damn ball more with the 230lb Jackson (Rams had the 4th least rushing attempts at 380).
M.I.M.P.: Tye Hill, CB
I don't know about you, but I LOVE fast cornerbacks, and Hill was timed as the fastest in the draft. I'm thinking about 97-98 speed with mid 90's acceleration sounds about right.

As you've probably heard by now, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and his motorcycle were in accident yesterday morning. Roethlisberger, who wasn't wearing a helmet, went headfirst into the windshield of a car. Miraculously, he suffered no life-threatening injuries, and after hours of surgery yesterday, he is left with facial fractures, a broken nose, and a broken jaw. Early estimates are that Big Ben could miss up to 4 weeks of the season (the Steelers have a bye in week 4), something that could put a real damper on the Steelers repeat title hopes. If you're like me, your first reaction was "how could he be so stupid?" How could a superstar athlete with so much going for him be so careless as to ride a motorcycle without a helmet?

It's not like he was racing, or doing any stupid tricks like Browns tight end Kellen Winslow was doing when he wrecked his knee last year. But that still should have served as a warning or a wake-up call for Roethlisberger to be more careful right? Wrong. Big Ben was still adimant that he would ride his bike sans helmet (Pennsylvania repealed the motorcycle helmet law in 2003) but was a "safe rider." Well even trying to be safe, and even though it looks like the other driver was at fault, it will cost Roethlisberger part of his season, and could have cost him his life.

Will this stop Roethlisberger from riding again, or stop other athletes from riding motorcycles in the offseason? No. Go here for a list of athletes involved in motorcycle accidents in the last 10 years. Most of those accidents are very serious, and all caused the player to miss at least a small part of their season. And yet guys still ride. Why? Well having never been a professional athelte myself I can only speculate: but from what I've seen and read and understand, a lot of these guys are adrenaline junkies. They LOVE competition, and in downtimes during the offseason, they still need to feed that love and desire to compete. Some guys turn to gambling, like John Daly, Michael Jordan, or Charles Barkley. Others to motorcycles or fast cars. It should be noted, that although Big Ben was not speeding or doing anything illegal prior to the accident, that wasn't just any old bike he was riding: his 2005 Suzuki Hayabusa is the fastest production bike on the road.

Sure maybe he was trying to be as safe as possible, but then why have the fastest bike you can buy? I was surprised at first when I heard the Steelers had no clauses or provisions in his contract against riding a motorcycle. If I was a Steelers fan (which I'm not) I would have been upset that Roethlisberger would be riding around without a helmet, jeopardizing his life, and my football team. But then "The Professor" John Clayton explained...

The reason the Steelers and most teams don't add specific language about off-the-field accidents is that they don't feel it's necessary. The NFL Management Council has advised teams to use the phrasing "for any reason" in regard to a player who defaults on his contract because of an injury suffered outside of football. 

So the Steelers would have reparations coming against Roethlisberger if he misses time, just as the Browns did with Winslow. I guess teams understand that these guys are going to get the adrenaline going off the field too, and that as long as they're protected against them injuring themselves in non-sporting-related activities, then they cross their fingers and hope for the best. As a fan, I certainly don't like the fact guys are risking their lives AND their jobs as players on my favorite teams, but like the owners and coaches, I'll just have to cross my fingers and hope for the best.

* So I was looking through some old posts yesterday, trying to find one that I swore I wrote comparing Adam Morrison to Wally Sczcerbiak, proving that Morrison will be a better pro than people believe. Apparently I never wrote it (which means I WILL write it this week), but I did find the following from my NBA preview... 

Mark Cuban needs to deal the Diggler now for as much as he can get, and build around someone else because the Dirk will not lead a team to the title. I had high hopes for him that maybe, just maybe, he'd be the first European to step-up when it mattered. Of course that was right before chewing out Jason Terry at the end of game 5 and then missing all 5 of his shots in OT. Maybe if he didn't shave his head every year things would be different, but I doubt it.

I was right at the time I wrote it, but boy I'm REALLY wrong now!! Dirk Nowitzki has risen from a good NBA player to one of the league's 5 best in the post season (I'll at least point out that he hasn't shaved the 'do this year), and I think this has been a good lesson for me to learn. Dirk hadn't come up big for the Mavs when it mattered, but he worked his tail off this offseason, and is now pretty much unguardable. He's shown more of a willingness to go into the post, and is killing the smaller guys down there that used to give him trouble. And the outside shooting? Yeah, it's still there.

I wrongly believed that if you couldn't get it done in the playoffs on more than one occasion, as was the case with The Dirk, then you'd NEVER get it done. Well Dirk has proven me wrong, as did Lebron. Unless you're Peyton Manning or Alex Rodriguez (who never have been and never will be clutch), apparently you CAN learn to be clutch!!

* A poll on ESPN.com had Dirk rated as the league's 5th best player behind Lebron, Wade, Kobe and Duncan. I agree with all of those except Duncan- even when 100% (which TD was not this year), his free throw woes make him less valuable than Dirk.

* Not that I'm ever right with predictions, but I like Dallas to win the series. They've got the size to contain Shaq (and by "contain" I mean make him work for his points), and guys like Josh Howard and Marquise Daniels to slow down Dwayne Wade (and by "slow down" I mean keep him shooting under 70% from the field). They also have the quickness on the perimeter to do what Detroit couldn't: drive to the basket on the slower Heat forwards and guards. Oh and have I mentioned Dirk is unguardable? Because he is. SHould be a fun series, although it's ridiculous we have to wait till Thursday to start it.

* Stanley Cup Finals start tonight (congrats to the 4 or 5 households that actually get OLN). I'm cheering for Edmonton because they're a Canadian team (and their best players are generally Canadian) and I hate Carolina (although I obviously support all the great Canadian players the Canes have). Carolina is a prime example of why the NHL isn't working and will never work in the South: Carolina has been one of the worst franchises for attendance since their inception. Sure, the place will be packed for the games, but how many people down there really care?  The South has very passionate sports fans (as college football and that sport where guys drive cars and turn left for 4 hours will attest), but unless the team's in the Finals, the people don't show up. Send the team back to Hartford, send the Coyotes back to Winnipeg, and get rid of Florida, Tampa, Atlanta, Nashville, and Anaheim. Please.

* I may be losing my manhood, but I'm actually interested in the World Cup of Futbol. I still find a full soccer game to be boring, but the intensity with which fans in the rest of the world follow this sport, well it's impressive, and almost enviable. I still love the story that in the 2002 World Cup, Ireland (my ancestors) voted to change their clocks to Korean time (something like 9 hours ahead) so that they wouldn't have to watch the games at work. I don't think the amendment passed, but that's still impressive. THAT'S a passionate fan base. Of course the Irish didn't make it this year, and neither is Scotland (my other "homeland") but oh well. 

* I'm REALLY ready for football season!! These June and July Sundays when there's NOTHING on reminds me how much I miss football.

* Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Chris Henry was arrested for the 3rd time in 6 months. He's the early leader for the 2006 winner of the "Onterrio Smith Award for Athlete Who Just Doesn't Get It".