Just thinking out loud here, but perhaps we can't quite put the NBA Conspiracy rumors to bed quite yet. Other than questions about the Amare/Diaw suspensions against the Spurs, nothing this year ticked Stern off more than tanking. You could just see the steam coming out of the man's ears when he asked whether he would try to do something about tanking. Well? The Celtics, Bucks, and T-Wolves were easily the 3 most egregious offenders of Tankapoolza 2007. The Wolves weren't tanking for the #1 pick, but for the SECOND YEAR IN A ROW were just trying to keep their draft pick by having one of the 10 worst records. For the second straight year they didn't improve their position in the lottery. Boston and Milwaukee finished with the 2nd and 3rd worst records but dropped as far as the lottery process allows, down to 5th and 6th respectively. Not that The Don Stern would EVER get revenge, but you could look at it that Boston and Milwaukee were penalized as much as possible for tanking. I'm not saying, I'm just saying.
Anyway, barring what would have to be the biggest trades in league history, the Pacific Northwest will be home to two once-in-a-generation talents. With just 5.3% odds, the Portland Trailblazers won the #1 pick and the rights to take super center Greg Oden with the #1 pick. Just up I-5, the Seattle Soon-To-Be-Oklahoma-or-Las-Vegas Sonics, with just an 8.8% chance, won the 2nd pick and essentially the rights to Texas super freshman Kevin Durant. Your MInnesota Timberwolves will pick right where they were projected to at #7, and since we've more than a month to figure out who they'll take (COREY BREWER COREY BREWER COREY BREWER), we won't bother with projections right now.
Speaking of bothered, that cussing you hear coming out of Sacaucus, NJ is from Commish David Stern and the NBA front office, as two franchise changers not only go to small markets, but go to WESTERN small markets. This is bad news because for them because, like most everyone else, you haven't been watching the Eastern Conference playoffs. Why? Because the East sucks. They were in dire need of Oden and or Durant. Out east you have 2 good but boring teams in Detroit and Chicago at the head of the pack, 2 of the games biggest stars (Lebron and Dwade) on bad teams with even worse salary cap situations, and then a bunch of teams we can't even call mediocre. The league would have LOVED to get one or both of these guys to Boston, Chicago or Philly, but instead, the already wild west just got a lot wilder, making things even worse for the Wolves. The Blazers are a playoff team right now with Oden. You may laugh now, but trust me, they're now ahead of the Wolves for the race for the 7th or 8th seed. SEattle? Maybe not a playoff shoo-in, but certainly much better with Durant.
Adding insult to injury for fans who enjoy watching the Phoenix Suns play basketball the way it was intended, you know with passing, the Suns could have had Atlanta's pick if it fell out of the top 3. The Hawks of course went and got #3. Thanks Atlanta- you guys can't even suck right. Jackholes.
Back to the Sonics for a minute, because I care way more than I should. I grew up only 2 hours from the Emerald City and the "Supes" have meant a lot to me. Their teams of the mid 90's with Payton, Kemp, Schrempf, Big Smooth, Nate McMillan and so many more you don't care about, were my 2nd favorite team to cheer for behind the '98 Vikings team that...well you know how that one ended with Atlanta. Just as tragic for Sonics basketball fans is how that Supes team was dismantled by one Wally Walker, who refused to give Kemp a contract extension he had earned (make all the paternity suit and drug jokes you want, he was the NBA's 2nd best power forward at the time, and the 2nd best player in that Bulls series behind Jordan in '96. You know what? Watch this youtube clip and you'll see what I mean. Best in-game dunker of our generation. Yup I said it.). Instead the money went to the biggest white stiff center in the history of big stiff white centers, Jim McIlvaine, who signed for what was huge money at the time and did what all big stiff white centers do...absolutely nothing. Kemp got angry and got traded, team performance and attendance sunk, a good owner sold to the Coffee ####, who didn't like Gary Payton and traded him out of town, pretty much killing the fan base. Shocked that trading away your franchise player wasn;t the best way to drum up interest for a new stadium, he cried in his Latte and sold them for a small $150 MILLION DOLLAR PROFIT to the Oklahoma folks who will now move the team to their free arena in Oklahoma or a shiny new one in Vegas unless the good people of King County build him a stadium. Not a chance. Sianora Supes.
There are some who believe that the arrival of Oden or Durant could have caused enough sway with the public to keep the Sonics in Seattle. I think it was possible with Oden, but unless Durant scores 30 a night and lives up to the lofty Jordan comparisons from day 1, it's not going to be enough. So it was bad enough that a great fan base is getting robbed of its team because the Coffee #### was so arrogant to believe tax payers would and should build him a new arena for free. Now the Sonics will leave town with a kid who has the potential to be an all-time great. As the Sports Guy would say, I will now stab a pencil into my eye socket. Or listen to Avril Lavigne...no the pencil in the eye would be less painful.
As for Wolves fans, well you already know how I feel. And David Stern. And Celtics fans.
I have a love/hate relationship with the NBA. I love basketball and I love to see it played by its best players, and I suppose that's why I have such high hopes for the league- and why I'm continually let down by it. This season I was ready to walk away, what with the well-noted Tankapalooza2007, reading today what I already said would happen when Coffee #### sold them last summer, and poor Wolves beat reporter Steve Aschburner inventing new ways to put a positive spin on yet another blowout loss for a team that quit because incompetent management/ownership has given them no other choice. But then Commissioner David Stern threw the curveball of curveballs by suspending referee Joey Crawford for the rest of the season and possibly the playoffs for ejecting whiner/All star Tim Duncan for LAUGHING.
To me there are three major image problems for the NBA... and one of them is nuclear war (sorry old Austin Powers joke)...seriously one of them is the pro wrestling atmosphere of the playoffs where it seems that maybe, just maybe, the whole thing is rigged for certain teams with certain high-profile players to win *cough*Dwyane Wade*cough*. True or not, the stigma of one-sided or biased refing in the playoffs has stuck, to the point that just about everybody who wasn't a Miami Heat fan was calling the officiating last June a joke. Crawford, one of the longest tenured refs, was one of the worst offenders, and over the past few years his ego was almost eclipsing that of the players, which is saying something. It seemed as though Crawford wanted the spotlight in playoff games, and made some ludicrous calls to get his shiny bald mug on TV. His ejection of Duncan was unbelievable, and yet I expected nothing to happen because nothing EVER happens to referees that blow calls or job teams. The league says it will reprimand or fine an official or suspend him or whatever, yet that same crappy egomaniac is back giving Wade or Lebron free throws and throwing out whoever dares even think about disagreeing with a call. I mean it got to the point where Stern was throwing such enormous fines at people for complaining about the officiating that even Mark Cuban, who seemingly lives to get fined, hasn't said a peep all year. And now Stern suspends Crawford AND gives a rational explanation? What's next- Stern admitting the lotteries for the Knicks in '85 and Wizards in '01 were rigged?
Honestly, I'm not sure where we go from here. Is this Stern admitting he was wrong and making amends, like Lost killing off Nikki and Paulo? Or is just another publicity stunt to grab headlines like with the "new" ball, or the dress code. I hope Stern will finally let the world's best group of athletes decide the NBA champion instead of the officials. That would solve ONE of the league's biggest problems.
The other two? Well here's where the Commish and I disagree, at least publicly. Stern stated publicly yesterday that he intends to address the tanking issue this offseason, vowing to find a way to stop teams from tanking to get the best possible pick. Me personally, I'm not bothered by Memphis or Boston sucking to get a chance at once-in-a-decade talents like Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. As the Sports Guy and numerous others have explained, a potential superstar can change the fortunes for a team in basketball more than any other sport, so why wouldn't a team with no chance of making the playoffs give themselves the best possible chance to land one of these two? It's not like this happens every year either. Since the lottery concept began in 1985, and was tweaked after 1993 (when the Magic landed back-to-back #1 picks) there's only been a handful of drafts where there's been a player worth tanking for: Ewing in '85, Shaq in '92, Webber/Penny Hardaway in '93, Duncan in '97, and Lebron/Melo in '03. Including this year, that's 6 drafts in 23 years.
The tanking that DOES bother me hits with the NBA's other real problems, which are an image of lazy players, and dumb GM's. For the 2nd year in a row, the aforementioned Wolves are trying to secure a particular draft spot so they don't lose their pick because their GM made a bad trade/signing. The TPups aren't alone either, as Atlanta and Indiana tried to do the same this year, and you can be certain that with so few competent GM's in the league, and so many players getting guaranteed contracts no matter how they perform, this isn't going away. GM's will continue to make dumb trades and sign guys to bad contracts, crippling their team. I mean really, what options do the Wolves have right now? McHale has screwed up this roster so badly with poor drafting, trades and free agent signings, that their only hope of keeping Garnett is to keep their #1's and land Oden or Durant. That's it. So KG, who's been one of the toughest and most reliable players in the last decade, suddenly has a mysterious injury so the team can suck and keep it's draft position, where McHale will only make another dumb pick.
The solution to dumb GM's and lazy players is simple: do away with guaranteed contracts. It's why the NFL is the most popular sport on the continent, because players HAVE to give their all or they get cut. Doing this in the NBA would do a much better job of making players give max effort, and also letting GM's off the hook for bad contracts. Fans get to see players actually trying on a nightly basis, and they know their teams aren't trapped in salary cap hell if/when their GM makes a dumb move. Everybody wins- well except the lazy-#### players who currently get guaranteed money.
It would take a man like Stern, who when he wants to, can be as intimidating a figure as there is in sports, to make this happen. The players union would fight it at all costs, and as the lockout dragged on the owners and fans would fight it too. But IF he could hold his ground, and explain in ways that only he can to "make them an offer they can't refuse", it would be his boldest and best move as Commissioner.
Short of that, there is an easier way to help solve the problem of bad GM's and bad contracts...which we'll save for next time.
Minnesota Twins 1B Justin Ernest George Morneau has won the 2006 AL MVP Award. YEs the guy who I believe is not even the most valuable on his own team won the award for the whole damn league. Nevermind that slowly and quietly Canadians, not to mention BC Boys, are dominating American sports. Victoria, BC native Steve Nash is the reigning NBA 2-time MVP, and now to me, just as inexplicably, New Westminster, BC's own Morneau has won the AL MVP. As a fellow British Columbian living in the States, I'm ecstatic for Morneausy, and the incredible improvement he showed this year. He hit .321/.375/.559 with 34 HR's and was 2nd in the AL with 130 RBI, obliterating his previous career highs. Most Improved player in the American League? Without question. But just as Nash wasn't the league's best nor most valuable in either year he won it, Morneau was neither the Twins best or most important player.
Upon hearing the announcement, I emailed the following to my buddy Jer: Morneausy won the MVP. Wow. Just Wow. I love him and he's a Vancouver boy and all, but wasn't he the 3rd most important player on his own team? I'm counting Santana and Mauer ahead of him, and you could make an argument for Nathan and Liriano as well. Did I mention wow?
Jer's response was excellent as always, and it's this reasoning that won Morneau the MVP:
I see your point about Morneau, but I disagree in a sense. As far as leadership, he probably is the third most important person on his team, but you have to immediately rule Santana out because, whether you agree with it or not, he’s a pitcher and most writers aren’t going to vote for a pitcher. And as far as Mauer being more important than him, he is, in a sense, but Morneau played every single day (153 games) while Mauer played 120 games. In addition I think the non-tangible fact that by Morneusy being the power hitter that the Twins needed all along, this allowed the rest of the lineup to fall into place as it did (i.e. Torii being able to be a #6 hitter, Mauer being a #3 hitter), so the entire lineup was able to bat where it should and so to it’s greatest potential. There is no chance that Torii has the offensive year that he had if he isn’t batting in the 6th position. Plus, outside of batting average, his numbers are just better than Mauer.
I told you it was a good argument, yet I still disagree. For one thing Santana was this team's runaway MVP. He completed the pitcher's Triple Crown (Wins, ERA, K's) and was the unanimous selection as the Cy Young Award winner. Jer is absolutely right that "most writers aren’t going to vote for a pitcher" to which I think the writers are wrong. No matter how well Morneau or Mauer or the rest of the lineup hit, they weren't winning the AL Central without Santana's 19 wins, 2.77 ERA, and 247 strikeouts. They don't even get close. And if you're having a conversation about which player you'd want to start a franchise with, Santana's one of the first 3 names you'd come up with. So tell me again why he shouldn't be in the MVP conversation? (Jer wasn't arguing this point by the way, but I believe Santana's efforts works against Morneau's case).
As for Morneau being more important than Mauer, here I also disagree. Yes his numbers are better (except for average and OBP), but Mauer's a much better defensive player at the game's most grueling position, which even though it obviously doesn't, should count for something. Him getting on-base at a .429 clip also makes the jobs of the hitters behind him that much better. And although I totally agree that Torii Hunter had a career year because the Twins weren't counting on him in the middle of the order, you can attribute this just as much to Mauer and Cuddyer as you can to Morneau.
Beyond that, Mauer and Santana are the best players in the league at their position, and it's not even close right now. Morneau is certainly one of the better first basemen in the AL, but honestly, even factoring in their non-existent defense, HONESTLY- if you could have Travis Hafner (42HR, 118 RBI .297/.402/.583), David Ortiz (54 HR, 137 RBI .287/.413/.636) or Morneau, which one are you taking? You're kidding yourself if you don't say Morneausy is 3rd on that list.
Oh and one other thing: bottom of the 9th, 2 outs, with the winning run at second. Who would you want at the plate- Mauer or Morneau? You're kidding yourself if you pick Morneau there too.
As Strib beat writer Lavelle E Neal reports today, Minnesota Twins GM Terry Ryan has won the 2006 MLB Executive of the Year Award. The Twins of course won the Central Division on the last day of the season with a pitching staff decimated by injuries. Terry was indeed deserving for the moves he made last year on the usual shoe-string budget. But Ryan will really be earning that award this offseason if he can keep the "Little Engine That Could" in contention next year in what looks to be baseball's best division. The Twins needs for the offseason are the same as the seemingly are every year: a power bat and starting pitching. However, this offseason it will be tougher than ever to address those needs, especially with young ace Francisco Liriano out until 2008 with Tommy John surgery.
If you haven't heard by now, this year's free agent class is awful, lacking quality and depth in both starting pitching and power hitters- and pretty much everything else. Confounding matters for the Twins is that 1)it seems like EVERYBODY needs starting pitching and power and 2)it seems like every big market team with a big budget has money to spend. Just look at the Cubbies resigning 3rd baseman Aramis Ramirez (he of huge power and no D, as well as little leadership) for about $14.5 million per season, or the Red Sox reportedly paying about $42 million just to talk to Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, who despite never throwing a major league inning, is being dubbed as the offseason's top available pitcher. These are just the first two examples of the massive overspending that will take place in the next month.
Not that billionaire owner Carl Pohlad (who, I will point out again for the umpteenth time is one of the richest men in baseball), would ever allow Terry Ryan to be involved in signing a big-name free agent, but this year it will be a blessing. Ryan will be left to try and fill voids at DH and in the rotation from a less-than-stellar bargain bin, or through trade. Of course the trade market will be especially tough now too, since anybody with a tradeable commodity will be asking more than ever for it because of the dearth of available free agent talent. The Tigers just gave up top pitching prospect Humberto Sanchez and two other young minor league arms to get 39-year-old Gary Sheffield from the Yankees. Sheff, who missed most of last season due to injury, is in the twilight of his career, and yet the Tiggers shelled out $28 million for a 2 year extension. IF he stays healthy, and IF he continues to hit as he has, Sheffield could be the big bat (and finally a patient hitter) that Detwah lacked last year, but they still paid a bundle for him. But in this "win-now-at-all-costs" baseball world, that could end up being one of the better deals we'll see this winter.
Division rival Cleveland, who could have baseball's best hitting lineup outside the Bronx, landed young 2B Josh Barfield from San Diego for some minor league guys, in what can only be described as a "Terry Ryan-esque" move for the Tribe. Barfield's not great at anything, but he's young, dirt cheap for the next 3 years, and is a pretty solid all-around hitter. Like Minnesota, Cleveland will have to get creative to address their needs, but theirs, defense up the middle (which the Barfield acquisition certainly did) and the bullpen, are much easier to get than power and starters.
And the White Sox? GM Kenny Williams is one of baseball's best and most aggressive guys, and being one of the few teams with money, power and starting pitching, he's guaranteed to make splash this offseason.
Is the current Twins team good enough to win next year? I don't think so, and I doubt Ryan does either, so improving them should prove very interesting. The Carlos Silva and Torii Hunter signings were both shrewd, and hopefully Mr Ryan has a few more aces up his sleeve to get another arm and hopefully another bat. I'd love to see the Twins go after Mike Piazza. An extra catcher to spell Mauer who can DH when he's not behind the plate. And yes I realize he's not the hitter he used to be and is below-average at best behind the dish, but he'd still be a better presence in the 4 spot than Rondell White or Jason Kubel.
I'm not sure what the options look like for the rotation, but how much do you like the looks of Santana, Silva, Garza, #### and Scott Baker? Yeah I don't like it much either. That's why as a Twins fan you should be glad that Ryan's in charge of this, because if anybody can do it with smoke and mirros, Terry's the man.
If you haven't heard, Citypages got a candid and indepth interview with Minnesota Timberwolves owner and Minneasota billionaire Glen Taylor.
If you haven't read it, and you consider yourself a Wolves fan, take
the time to read it. I don't know what I'm more amazed with: some of
the things Taylor said, or just how bloody candid he was throughout the
interview. You NEVER hear an owner or somebody in sports management be
this blunt. I don't know how they did it, but it's a helluva read.
Here's
a few highlights, mostly notably on our favorite player KG, and my
least favorite VP of Basketball operations, Kevin McHale:
On McHale... "I
guess I would just say to the public, at the time last year, I didn't
know of a person—and we have had different people that have asked for
that job—I didn't see a person that I thought would do the job better
than Kevin."
On the Marko Jaric trade... "And I would just
say that they sold me. I had seen him play before and I didn't see
quite what they saw. But they were saying, "Gee, the guy is 6-7 and he
can play all these positions, and boy, wait until the fans see him."
Here's what I would say to our fans on that: Let us see what happens
this year and judge that. Because whatever we did last year, we really
messed up."
On getting rid of Wally... "I'm just saying there
was probably more to it that had to do with Wally that we have chosen
not to talk about—that Kevin has never said and we have never
said...But I would say some things came to a head that forced us to get
into something we didn't necessarily want to do."
On former coach Flip Saunders... "I
can tell you that Chauncey [Billups] left not because of Kevin but
because of Flip. Now, have we said that? We didn't want to say that
about Flip because he was here at the time."
On getting Mike James... "McHale
had talked to Garnett and said, what do you really want? And Garnett
said, I want an experienced guard. I have done the best when Sam was
here, and with an experienced guard, I am a better player."
On trading KG... "So
I think there could be a scenario [where he leaves], but I don't think
it will be because Kevin puts pressure on me or that I would blindside
him. If it happens, it will be because we talk to each other and say,
you know, it isn't going so good this year."
What Taylor would want in return for The Franchise "...a couple of young players and a couple of draft picks, so we could build a team around [that trade]."
There's
a ton more in here. The biggest surprise for me was Taylor laying the
blame at Flip's feet for letting Chauncey go. I'm not saying he's
wrong, I'm just surprised he said it. I know I have a biased opinion of
Flip, and that it was McHale, and not the Nosis, who should have been
canned a couple of years back, but after seeing the problems with
players Flip's having in Detroit, perhaps there was more to this than
first thought. Not that I'm taking the blame for this whole debacle off
of McHale. What's baffling is that Taylor walks through most of the
screwups McHale's made the past couple of years, admits they were
screwups, but still comes back to "well I don't think anyone else could
have done it any better." Looks like McHale's lifetime contract is safe.
Or
is it? Midway through they talk about Fred Hoiberg, and it sounds like
they're grooming him as McHale's replacement. For Timberwolves fans,
that's great news. Let's just hope it happens sooner rather than later.
San Francisco 9 Minnesota 3 I'm guessing you've already heard or read everything there is to say about this game, or thought it yourself, but let me add this thought: Benching Brad Johnson is not the answer to the offensive woes. Yes he's turned the ball over 6 times in the last 2 games, and the team has scored a grand total of 7 offensive TD's (Johnson has thrown 4, Mewelde Moore and Ryan Longwell have each thrown one- I'm counting the Longwell TD as a special teams TD- and Chester Taylor has ran for 2 more scores) in 8 games. It's brutal, and I'm not sure with the '85 Bears defense that the Vikings would be a Super Bowl team. But pulling Brad Johnson means you're announcing to your fans and the league that the Vikings 2006 season is over. Period. It'd be one thing if the receiving core was making spectacular catches, or even routine catches, but they haven't. We saw again yesterday that even when Johnson makes the right read or throw, the receivers aren't coming through for him. Brooks Bollinger or Tavaris Jackson are not going to make this team better than Brad Johnson can, and with the Bears and Rams as the only winning teams left on the schedule, Johnson can keep you in the playoff hunt.
What I hope this season will do for coach Brad Childress is make him realize you need more than just his scheme to score points and win. Most coaches have that sense of arrogance that their scheme is the key, and that you can plug just about anybody into it and it'll be productive. Hey this idea works if you're New England with Tom Brady or Chili's former employer in Philly with Donovan McNabb, but you've got to have a good QB to make it happen. And you also need receivers that will catch the ball, and this year Minnesota has neither. You could get by with Johnson if the receivers were catching, but they're not and so the offense continually stalls in the red zone. I hope this makes Childress realize that he needs a good quarterback, and a couple of playmakers at wideout next year. If they get them, the Vikes are right there. For this season? We're probably in store for more ugly games like yesterday, but hopefully the Vikes will come out on the right end of it.
Indianapolis 27, New England 20 In his MMQB column, Peter King made some points I agree with about the Colts win over New England, and one big one I don't. Here's what I agreed with... * That the Colts are clearly the best team in football right now (duh!) * That the Colts won't go 16-0 (yes their sched is favorable, but as the Bears showed yesterday, anything's possible. THey'll lose at least once, and I think probably twice when they're resting their starters in week 17, before the playoffs) * That Peyton Manning is the playing better than any QB in the league (a resounding yes to that one)
But what I disagreed with was this... "But I would like to put that annoying he-can't-win-the-big-one story to bed." Seriously I couldn't disagree more. Peyton has been the best REGULAR SEASON quarterback for at least the last 3 years. And yet every year his team loses in the playoffs. Last night's win over New England proved they were a better team than the Patriots right now- but I don't see how it proves he's ready to "win the Big One". Last year, with homefield throughout and the Patriots knocked out by Denver, was Indy's best chance for a Super Bowl, and they didn't even make it out of the conference. This certainly COULD be the year Peyton drops the "Alex Rodriguez of Football" tag, but no matter how well he plays in the regular season, we're not going to know the answer until February 4th in Miami for Super Bowl XLI. If the Colts make it there AND they win it, THEN and only the "annoying he-can't-win-the-big-one story to bed."
Miami 31, Chicago 13 This game shows the Bears are mortal, but the team's 6 turnovers shows that this could be more than just overlooking the Fish. We'll find out plenty about Da Bears in the next 3 weeks as they travel to the Meadowlands to play the Giants, and Jets, and then to Foxboro to play the Patriots. Contenders or pretenders? We'll know by Thanksgiving weekend. This loss also means we can start talking about the GIants, Philly, Carolina and a host of other NFC teams as having a legit Super Bowl aspirations. My pick, as it was to start the year, is still Carolina, but things as it stands now are pretty wide open.
Just in time for the season opener tonight, here's the final installment of my NBA Preview. Happy Halloween everybody!
8. Boston Celtics, Atlantic (33-49) Over/Under 36.5 wins: OVER The C's are young and they don't have a great coach, but Paul Pierce will be an allstar again, rookie PG Rajon Rondo has the makings of a star (as well as a new Boston cult hero), and this COULD be the year Al Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins finally put it all together. Or most of it. Or some of it. Hey come on, it's the East. They've got enough to get in. I'd say something nice about Wally Szczerbiak, but you know I'm not capable of it.
7. Detroit Pistons, Central (64-18) Over/Under 50.5 wins: WAY UNDER No I'm not kidding, no I'm not drinking as I type this, and yes this prediction would make me less popular in Detroit than Matt Millen (and yes this would be assuming anybody reads this hahaha). The Pistons lost Ben Wallace who was the one guy they couldn't afford to lose, and I can't believe more people aren't making a bigger deal of this. Let's see, the guy was your leader, your best defensive player, one of the league's best rebounders AND set the tone for everybody else by being tough and unselfish on a team that relied heavily on him to do all of those things. He was also the glue that kept Ra-weed Wallace in check, allowing him to free lance and play pressure-free (how do people forget what a complete and total space-cadet the guy was in Portland? That Ra-weed will resurface this season. I guarantee it). People also seem to forget that what made DEtroit great was their CHEMISTRY!! As individuals none of them were high draft picks or all-NBA type guys, but together they were truly one of the league's best teams. Now their heart and soul is gone, and I'm telling you, that's a REALLY BIG DEAL! Nazr Mohammed doesn't fit their style at all and does not provide a defensive presence in the middle (the guy couldn't beat out Rasho Nesterovic last year in San Antonio for pete's sake), so the team's best players are all guys who want to play on the perimeter and there's nobody left to rebound or do the dirty work on the inside.
Oh but that's not all. Big Ben ripped coach Flip Saunders apart on his way out of town, and there's a mutiny on the horizon here. These guys, who had won a title without Flipnosis, were quick to point the finger at him at the first signs of trouble last year. Why'd they not make it back to the Finals last year? Because of Flip they said. Well they'll be more trouble this year, and the players will be throwing all the blame at Flip's feet. Add to this the FACTS that the Pistons have been extrememly fortunate when it's come to injuries during their run (they've had ZERO to their key guys. That will change), and that they have no depth whatsoever (honestly after McDyess, who in their bench rotation is decent? Anyone?) this spells a recipe for well, maybe not disaster, but there's no way Detwah gets anywhere close to 50 wins this year. None. In a watered-down East they're still a playoff team, but the end of the Pistons run is here. Call me a Pistons-hater, but this is how it will happen.
6. Indiana Pacers, Central (41-41) Over/Under 43.5 wins: OVER 2 of the following 3 things will happen for the Pacers this year: Al Harrington will make a big splash in his return to Indy, Jermaine O'Neal makes a big return from being chronically injured, and Stephen Jackson will try to stop shooting people. IF 2 of those 3 go right, this is definitely a playoff team. Not to mention more PT and maturity for 2nd year forward Danny Granger, and as little reliance as possible on Jamaal Tinsley would also be a good thing.
5. Orlando Magic, Southeast (36-46) Over/Under 38.5 wins: WAY OVER Yeah I have a man-cruch on Dwight Howard. Deal with it. The New Moses Malone will add more offense to his already stellar game, and we might even see more from Darko this year than just waving a towel on the bench and giving awkward hi-5's to guys as they're coming off the court. Grant Hill might be healthy (ok so his chances of being healthy are as good as Horatio Sans chances of leaving SNL and being a movie star), and Jameer Nelson will continue the rebirth of the point guard in the NBA. What's Orlando missing? Vince Carter, that's what. This is the best team in the East with Vince. Where will he go in free agency next summer? Probably Charlotte. Too bad.
4. New Jersey Nets, Atlantic (49-33) Over/Under 46.5 wins: OVER Just not sure about this team. I think Jason Kidd's play will drop this year, and although Marcus Williams has looked good in preseason, is he really ready to handle a lot of NBA minutes? We'll see. Richard Jefferson is consistent (well as long as he's not playing for Team USA that is), and Vinsanity's in a contract year, so he should be a monster. Still they have little to nothing in the post, and still no real depth coming off the bench. All of that should be good for an easy division title in the worst division in the league, but I'm not even sure they get out of the first round.
3. Miami Heat, Southeast (52-30) Over/Under 51 wins: UNDER Well I've already pissed off Pistons fans, so why not continue with Heat fans too? Although really everyday in Miami it's 80, sunny, there's a nice beach, there's a lot of pretty plastic girls down there, AND your team are the defending champs, so how upset can you really get as a Heat fan? They had the perfect storm to win it last year, where EVERYTHING (including the commish's office demanding Dallas be called for fouls on DWade as soon as he got of bed in the morning) went right for them. This year? Yeah not so much. The only 3 guys you can really count on doing more of what they did last year are Wade, Udonis Haslem and James Posey. Everybody else is a wildcard heading into the season. GP and Zo were running on fumes last year, so I'm not sure how much they contribute this season- and remember, it was Payton not Jason Williams, who was getting the crunchtime minutes in the playoffs. JWill and Employee #8 played nicey-nice to get a ring, but I have a hard time believing they'll buy in again. And Shaq? He might as well wear a Hawaiian shirt for a jersey and sip mai tai's during timeouts (I got a maitai but I ordered a margarita. And I asked for no salt. NO SALT but there were big grains of salt on the rim). What else does the man have to prove? More importantly, what else does the man WANT to prove? History shows dominant centers DO NOT get better once they hit their early 30's, especially 7'1, 350 pound former dominant centers who haven't been in shape for the regular season the past 4+ years, got his title without Kobe, and has a nice fat contract in one of the countries coolest cities. You tell me, what does Shaq have left to prove? Heat fans will be lucky to see him repeat last year's averages of 20 pts and 9.2 boards a night. I hope DWade was working on his shoulders in the offseason, because he's going to be carrying this team all year.
2. Chicago Bulls, Central (41-41) Over/Under 48.5 wins: OVER See here's an example of where chemistry matters, and where when everybody buys in, they're a pretty damn good team. I think the Bulls are clearly behind Dallas, San Antonio and Phoenix in the West (and maybe the Clips and Lakers too for that matter), but in the East they should be fighting for top spot. This was already a hungry scrappy team that played solid fundamental basketball (and yet were somehow strangely enjoyable to watch), and now they get a guy in Ben Wallace who does more of those things. Big Ben's got a chip the size of the Hancock Tower on his shoulder, and the rest of the Bulls think they should have beat Miami in the opening round series last year, so motivation will not be an issue. These guys will run, D up, and will win 50+ games. They're still missing a go-to scorer (although I think in the right circumstances Ben Gordon can be that guy), or at least a go-to post scorer, but even if they don't make a move at the deadline, they'll be in the hunt for the Finals. Well at least until the semi's or conference finals when suddenly anytime a guy in a Bulls uniform so much as thinks about breathing they call a foul on him and send Lebron or DWade to the line. But hey until then, enjoy Bulls basketball.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers, (50-32) Over/Under 49 wins: OVER This isn't as much about Lebron, as it is his supporting cast. Here's a list of things that went right for the Cavs last year: Lebron and Side Show Bob. A list of things that went wrong: everything else. AND THEY STILL WON 50 FREAKING GAMES!!!! And in a tougher conference last year with better teams!! We know Lebron will be better (which might be the scariest thought of any this Halloween. I mean good gawd, how good can this kid be?!?!) and his teammates can't be any worse. THeir big free agent signings last year were all terrible. Larry hughes because of injury and Damon Jones because of well, maybe he was worried more about his fashion sense than shooting %. I don't know, but he was awful. Donyell Marshall? No explanation either but he was unwatchable. Drew Gooden was mostly hurt or mostly inconsistent and Big Z's main contributions were a neck beard and looking European (and by the way, I STILL think they should have moved him in the offseason. He does not fit their style at all, takes touches away from Lebron, and well, did you see the guy's playoff neckbeard? Cavs fans were getting trapped in it on his way to and from the locker room! It was a travesty. A Sham-trave-mockery!) So Lebron will be better, his team will be better, and with homecourt advantage and Stern and the refs on their side throughout the playoffs, I don't see how the Cavs aren't in the NBA Finals this season.
When Denver kicker Jason Elam booted a field goal to tie the game with 1:47 left in the 4th quarter, my roommate Kris and I looked at each other and said "Too much time." The cameras then panned to the sideline showing Indianapolis Colts QB Peyton Manning standing with offensive coordinator Tom Moore. And honestly? They could have been two guys standing beside a grill in the tailgate lot or by the water cooler, or at their kids' baseball game. They were calm and cool and confident as could be. They were faced with one of the most difficult things to do in sports- the 2 minute drill- and they had no doubts they would get it done. None. It wasn't a question of WOULD they be able to get into field goal range, it was more deciding which way to do it this time? Something different to ####e it up maybe? I could have sworn I saw Manning say "too much time!"
Giving Manning 1:47 to set up a game-winning field goal with all 3 timeouts? It just wasn't fair, and anybody watching knew it. SHouldn't there be a new rule (for regular season games only, of course) that Manning should only be given under a minute and 1 timeout, just to make it interesting? But the NFL allowed him to keep all that time and all those timeouts and Manning surgically ripped the heart out of the Broncos in one of the toughest venues to win in sports: Mile High at night. A dump pass here, and handoff there (a handoff!! See now that's just getting cocky), and then a couple of passes to Reggie Wayne (he of the 3 TD day who abused poor Bronch CB Derrant Williams all game) and they were in range. IT was bad enough that you knew Manning would get them in position, but to have the greatest clutch kicker in history jogging off the sidelines to seal it? And of course he did. Colts win again, and remain undefeated.
Manning looked like the best QB who ever lived in that game, and yet last night proved for me yet again that Tom Brady is still the best. BRady did what he's rarely allowed to do in the Patriots team-first system, which was go out of the shotgun and pick teams apart. Last night it was a good Vikings D he carved up (at another time we'll delve into why Belichek IS the best coach in the game. With 2 good running backs he could have tried to pound the ball against a good run D. Instead? He airs it out all game long. Even up 24-7 in the 3rd, he continued to let Brady go shotgun, and Brady continued to complete passes. Anyway, another story for another time but just wanted to mention it). We're so quick these days to want to name everything the best or worst ever, to name instant greatness when one of the hallmarks of greatness is of course longevity and consistency, two measures that can't be judged or granted instantly. But we continue to make the ridiculous comparisons, like one of the guys in NBC's Sunday Night Broadcast saying with a straight face that new Cowboys QB Tony Romo reminded him so much of BRett Favre. And Joe Montana. Really? Why leave out Roger Staubach, Bart Starr and Johnny Unitas? Ridiculous.
But for all the overhype we have to endure, the Brady/Manning rivalry is every bit as good as Montana/Marino was. Manning with the gawdy stats and the playoff failures, and Brady with the 3 Super Bowl rings. These 2 teams play Sunday Night on NBC (thank god it's not on E!SPN) and you're going to get these 2 guys shoved down your throat for the next 5 days, but no matter how much they overhype it, these two are the real deal: and nobody else is even close. That more than anything is what I took away from their two impressive performances, that as bad and mediocre as NFL quarterbacks are these days, Brady and Manning are head and shoulders better than anybody else (sit down Mr. Favre. Sit down). I would still take Brady over Manning 7 days a week and twice on Sundays. I still need to see Manning get to the Super Bowl to put him ahead of Brady. I think Manning will take Marino's place as the greatest statistical quarterback in history, but like Marino I don't think he wins a Super Bowl. I'd like to be proven wrong because it would only enhance the rivalry, and let's be honest, after last year's gawd-awful Steelers/Seahawks Super Bowl, we NEED somebody like the Colts in there to give it some juice.
Manning does have more talent around him than Marino ever did (just the fact alone that he's had a running game around him), and I wonder if Manning's slowly learning from what happened to Marino and Montana, and now Brady. After his incredible record-setting 2004 season when his Colts still fell flat in the playoffs, I think the light went on for Peyton. Marino tried all those years to win it by himself and it never happened. But I think he looks at Montana and BRady, who are great when they need to be, but don't have to put up the gawdy stats, and is starting to take a page from them. Will he throw more than Brady will or Montana did? Absolutely, and with that arsenal of receivers, he should. But Manning's proved the last couple years that he's willing to put his ego and big passing numbers aside to win ugly if that's what it takes, because a win's a win no matter how you get it- especially in the playoffs. I think Manning's taking what the defenses give him more than ever, and like Brady, can turn it on and take over when need be. If he had Vinatieri kicking for him last year against the Steelers instead of "The Drunk Kicker" we be talking about him as a Super Bowl champ instead of doing another A-Rod impression. Look no further than the Broncos game for an example. He was 14-17 for just 132 yards and no TD's in the first half. The game was close and Manning was taking what he was given. IN the 2nd half he decided to make Derant Williams his personal ####, throwing again and again to Reggie Wayne. It resulted in the Colts victory.
Am I openly cheering for Goliath, for Peyton, for the guy that's being shoved down our throats as the new Face of the NFL? I am. For the sake of good and watchable football in an age of inconsistency and mediocrity, I'm dying for a juggernaut and a dynasty and a rivalry. The folks at E!SPN and other outlets are doing everything possible to make us believe in contrived rivalries and "great" players, but there's nothing forced about the Pats and Colts. Contrasting styles meeting twice a year (hopefully anyways) to battle for football supremacy. Can Peyton shake the "A-Rod of football" tag? Can Brady continue to be the best quarterback on the planet? We'll get a glimpse of it this Sunday night, and I know I'll be watching, because in today's NFL, it's Brady, Manning...and everbody else.
If the National League is being called AAAA baseball (and of course an 83 win team from the Senior Circuit looks primed to win the World Series) in the NBA what do we call the East? The NBDL II? NBDL Sr? NCAAA? Unlike the West, where there are at least 3 elite teams, there's not one here. Not one. And yes Heat and Piston fans, I realize that both Miami and Detwah are still in the conference. Let me say again: NOT ONE SINGLE ELITE TEAM IN THE EAST!!! But somebody has to win it, and chances are that one of those somebodies will win the NBA Title. Why? Because of the 1-on-5 playoff factor and that the East has two of the best players in the league in Lebron James and Dwyane Wade and David Stern and the refs LOVE superstars. Just love 'em. Mark it down, one of those two gentlemen will be in the Finals. You'll have to wait till tomorrow to find out which one. First, the non-playoff teams in the East (and by the way, according to my calculations if we seeded the playoffs as the 16 best teams in the league regardless of conference, the NBDL2 would get 4 teams, maybe 5. Seriously.)
As an added bonus for the NBDLEast preview, I'll be throwing in each team's Vegas win projections for the upcoming season. The idea here is to pick the over or under for how many wins Vegas predicts a team will get. Who doesn't LOVE playing the Over/UNder game? Exactly! Keep in mind Vegas sets odds and projections like this to get as much action as possible on both the overs AND unders for each team. So for example the defending NBA Champion Miami Heat are predicted to win 51 games. The Vegas wiseguys might not necessarily believe Miami will win 51 games this year, that's just the number they think will get the most people betting on both sides. Remember, Vegas makes money by you losing money.
Two from the East that really surprised me: Detroit at 50.5 and Cleveland at 49. Let's just say that if I were a betting man, I'd be betting the farm on the over for one and the under for the other. You'll find out soon enough which one's which. And oh by the way, no team in the league was predicted to win 60 games. Miami was predicted to win the most in the East at 51, and in the West Dallas had the most at 56, with Phoenix and San Antonio right behind at 55.5. Alright on with it then!
15. Atlanta Hawks, Southeast Division (2005 record 26-56) Over/Under 28.5 wins: UNDER I mean, what can you say about the Hawks? Well other than more people in Atlanta would show up to hear Gilbert Gottfried read the phone book than watch a Hawks game. It's that bad. They had a great trading chip in Al Harrington. He was the only young-allstar-caliber player available this summer, and what did the ATL get for him? Draft picks, and considering that lately they've used draft picks on Shelden Williams and guys not named Chris Paul, that's not a good sign. And before all 4 Hawks fans who still give a damn start saying they've got the best chance to win the Greg Oden sweepstakes, let me say this: the worst team never gets the 1st pick (see every draft since 2000 when the Nets got KMart) and even if you DID get the 1st pick with your luck Oden would either go back to school or more likely, come out and the Hawks would draft another small forward. Draft time for Hawks fans, or really just being a Hawks fan, must be a lot like Will Hunting getting a beating from his foster dad: he'd just lay out a wrench, a belt, or Gilbert Godfried and say choose. I think Gilbert's supposed to be reading at the Barnes & Noble in Buckhead on Thursday! Go Hawks!
14. Philadelphia 76ers, Atlantic (38-44) Over/Under 34 wins: UNDER In one of the most intriguing races in decades, we're now essentially down to 2. What race is that you ask? Why who can be the most incompetent NBA GM the longest of course! It's been a 4 horse race for awhile, but Isiah Thomas in NYC and Billy Knight in Hotlanta should be out of jobs by this time next year. That leaves us with Minnesota's Kevin McHale (and believe me, my money's on him) and Philly's Billy King. It's hard to choose right now, really. Both men have done an excellent job of putting the most over-paid non-talented players around a superstar, and both have made some awful trades, but McHale really excels when it comes to drafting. His draft record is uglier than me in a speedo. Knight's strength is killing his cap with a ballooning payroll, which at $94 million, is 2nd highest in the league. Sure he could have dealt Allen Iverson this summer for relief and a chance to start over, but why ruin a good thing? Not when you've got Sam Dalembert and Kyle Korver locked in until 2036. Chris Webber? He's owed $43 million over the next 2 years. And hey to top it all off, King is paying almost $18 million this season to Jamal Mashburn and Todd McCulloch, two guys who've been out of the NBA for years! Yes it's a race that should go right down to the finish folks, so don't miss it! For Sixers fans, um yeah, you might want to miss it.
13. Toronto Raptors, Atlantic (27-55) Over/Under 34 wins: UNDER Sorry but I'm just not buying the Raptors hype. I know Bryan Colangelo helped put together that fiesty Phoenix Suns squad, and that now the Raptors are supposed to be Phoenix East (well except for the difference in climate, currency, and number of times somebody will yell "take off eh!" when you knock over their beer). Although I think Bryan's on the right track and the team could be better, last time I checked the Raps don't have Steve Nash. Or Shawn Marion. Or Amare Stoudamire. Or Raja Bell, Barbosa, or the rest of the Suns roster. Is Chris Bosh one of the game's most underrated players? Definitely, and Bargnani should be a good rookie. But otherwise there's just not much talent here, and even in the NCAAA that's not going to be good enough. And TJ Ford? Yes he's quick and likes to run, but he can't shoot, doesn't pass as well as Nash (nobody does but just throwing it out there) and he breaks easier than a soda cracker. They're going in the right direction and Colangelo will have them in the playoffs soon enough, but not this year.
12. Charlotte Bobcats, Southeast (26-56) Over/Under 32.5 wins: OVER Speaking of teams that are going in the right direction, the Bobs (or the Shats. Yeah I like the Shats better) have amassed some good young talent and could put together a nice season. They don't have anyone as good as Bosh, but with Emeka Okafor, Sean May, Ray Felton, and Adam Morrison they not only have the college allstars, but a young nucleus that will make some noise this year. And don't forget about the league's most underrated player, Gerald Wallace. I think these kids will be 10 wins better (think about it: they won 26 last year with Okafor and May out for most of the year. Wallace had to play center!!) at least, but with youth comes inexperience. Morrison will be the scorer they've craved, but for all the game-winners and big baskets he'll score, he'll have some 2-11 shooting nights too. Ray Felton could be an allstar this year, and May and Okafor are a formidable low-post combo. If they can find a solid veteran leader (i.e. NOT Vince Carter) and add one more lottery pick next offseason this is a dangerous team for 2007, and one that at the very least will be fun to watch for 2006- if you're not blinded by the blaze-orange jerseys first. Good lord those things are uglier than Morrison's stache.
11. New York Knicks, Atlantic (23-59) Over/Under 31 wins: OVER What would I do if I coached the Knicks this year (obviously I'm not qualified because I haven't bankrupted a semi-pro league and decimated a Canadian basketball franchise, as well as America'a most storied one, but bear with me)? I'd give half my roster the "Tim Thomas": last year the Bulls sent Thomas home. They told the guy they've got no room for somebody with his attitude and sent him home (again Clippers fans, THIS is the guy you'll be seeing at Staples Center. Not the one from the playoffs last year. I'm not sayin I'm just sayin). Marbury, Francis, Jalen Rose, Mo Taylor, and Jerome James- send them all home. Curry, and Crawford,you're on notice. Channing Frye, David Lee, Jared Jeffries, REnaldo Balman and Nate Robinson are your future, and the further you keep the cancers away from these kids, the better. And I know, I know I KNOW!!! Knick fans wouldn't stand for it. Well let me tell you something: ALL those guys I'd send home are "Me First" guys, and no matter how talented they are, they're not taking you to the playoffs because they refuse to play together. PLay them all and you're not going to the playoffs. Send them home and you're not going to the playoffs but your young guys get better. You tell me which option is better. And I don't believe for one second The Cancers will rally around Isiah. No way. They're getting huge guaranteed dollars. That's all they care about. If they didn't rally last year, they won't do it this year. But since Isiah brough in all the Me Firsts, they'll play and they'll probably get close to 40 wins and the playoffs, but not close enough.
10. Washington Wizards, Southeast (42-40) Over/Under 39.5 wins: UNDER DO NOT doubt Gilbert Arenas. Not for a second. The man loves revenge more than Chuck Norris, Rambo and Max Cady combined. Last year the East coaches didn't vote him as an allstar reserve, so he spent the 2nd half of the season putting on camoflauge and a red bandana and made it his personal mission to make those coaches pay for what they did to him in Nam! Now he got cut by Team USA this past summer. Who's on his revenge list? USA Hoops director Jerry Colangelo? Coach K? Every player on the roster? Try every damn person who gets in his way, that's who! You think you're better than Gilbert? You think Gilbert's not good enough? You think Gilbert's going to take this! You'll get what's coming to you! And you'll get it good!!! Too bad the rest of the guys on the Wiz don't care this much. If they did they might be a playoff team. In the meantime Colangelo, Coach K and hell every single one of you better watch your back! Gilbert says you'll pay!
9. Milwaukee Bucks, Central (40-42) Over/Under 40.5 wins: UNDER Have I mentioned I'm really starting to like Milwaukee? A great baseball town (whose team needs to go back to the old jerseys), good beer, lots of brats, grown men wearing mustaches like it's 1973, hell there's even a river running through town out to Lake Michigan. It's really growing on me. I just wish I could say the same for the Bucks. The jerseys are new and yet old at the same time, and really that's Bucks basketball for you. They've got the big white center (or BWC as I like to call them. A Bucks staple. Somewhere Brad Lohaus and Frank Brickowski are smiling), no stars, and a bunch of guys who hustle and do all the little things- well except Charlie Villaneuva who is as new to the concept of effort as Katie Holmes is to the idea of "natural birthing." I think he's accepting the idea about as well too. Oh and just for ####e the Bucks have registered sex offender Rueben Patterson too. Does he have to walk around to every fan at every game and tell them his name and what's he done? Ok that was just mean. Sorry, not enough beer or brats this morning. I get cranky like that. I have no other real analysis (why start now?) here. The Bucks will be good, but not good enough to make the playoffs.
8. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS, Pacific Division (05-06 record: 34-48) This is all Don Nelson- well ok mostly Don Nelson. He's won here before and has won everywhere he's been, and this current Warriors team will respect that. I still haven't figured out why teams don't just hire a psychologist as their coach, and then get some assistants to do the X's and O's stuff. I mean, NBA coaching is 90% babysitting and 10% X's and O's. EVERYBODY in the league is talented, it's just a matter of chemistry and getting millionaires with guaranteed contracts to give a #### every night. Why couldn't you hire a guy with a psych degree (a basketball background would be preferred but not mandatory), and give him an assistant coach with a name like "Wex Tinters" and Wex could come up with some crazy offense with a shape name like "The Octagon" or "The Rectangle" or maybe even "The Triangle". Then Psych Coach can coddle and baby all the players and Wex tells him all the plays to run. Just make sure Psych and Wex go to a team with 2-previously-uncoachable superstars. I think this combo could be worth, what- 8? Maybe 9 championships? Just a thought.
7. LA CLIPPERS, Pacific (47-35) I think the Arizona Cardinals choked against the Bears MOnday NIght because really, what would happen to the planet if the Clips make the playoffs 2 straight years AND the Cardinals start looking functional? Would the sky turn red and rain frogs? Would the seas boil? Would Jessica Simpson become intelligent? I just don't think the world's ready for the Clips AND Cards to be good. I have trouble believing the Clips will equal their 47 wins from a year ago. Yes they should get a whole season out of Corey Magette, Chris Kaman is a good center, and Shaun Livingston (if the kid would ever learn to shoot) could be the conference's breakout player. But Elton Brand can't possibly duplicate last year's MVP-like numbers, Sam Cassell will be the unmotivated "non-contract-year" Sam Cassell (and oh by the way he's 37), Cuttino Mobley's already 31, and they replaced the outside shooting of Vlad Radmonovic with Tim Thomas. Chances of seeing the Tim Thomas from the postseason instead of the one that he's been the rest of his career with a fat contract? Let's just say the Royals are going to the World Series before that happens.
6. LA LAKERS, Pacific (45-37) I don't particularly like Kobe Bryant, and apparently I'm not alone. I read in Sports Illustrated's NBA preview issue (I needed something to do on my lunchbreak) that Kobe has the 6th highest "negative Q" rating in all of sports (the top 5? Barry Bonds, Terrell Owens, Ron Artest, Peyton Manning and Bode Miller. OK I made Peyton up because I couldn't think of the 5th one). Before being very unsurprised that Kobe was on this list, I wondered who voted on this and why have I not seen this kind of thing before? I don't read SI's print copies much anymore, so maybe I missed this, but did they publish a whole list of who has the highest and lowest Q ratings? Because THAT'S a list I'd want to see! Anyway, despite my dislike for Kobe I still believe he's the best all-around player in the league (if Lebron wants that title he'd better start playing D), and that he alone is worth a playoff spot. Surround him with a good 2nd banana in Lamar Odom and a developing supporting cast, and this will be a VERY feisty team come playoff time.
5. HOUSTON ROCKETS, Southwest (34-48) Why aren't more people talking about the Curse of Tracy McGrady? The guy goes to Orlando along with Grant Hill and they look to be a dynasty in the making. Of course Hill's foot explodes while T-Mac carries the team for a few years, and he finally forces a trade to a contender with another superstar, Yao Ming. Another dynasty in the making, right? Of course not. T-Mac's back becomes worse than Rockstar Supernova and the Rockets limp to a spot in the lottery. So do things finally change this year? I just don't see it. Sure, IF T-Mac's healthy for all 82 and Yao plays like a house-a-fire (and stays healthy), this could be the best team in the West. But bad backs are like annoying ex's- they just don't go away, and I can't see McGrady playing more than 65. The Battier addition was good (I'd like to tell you they'll regret trading Rudy #### but I can't. He'll either be great or a journeyman. THere's no in between), and Bonzi was a steal, but I'm still not sure they have enough shooting, a point guard, or depth for if/when McGrady goes down.
4. DENVER NUGGETS, Northwest (44-38) Ok ok I'll admit it: I have a man-crush on Carmelo Anthony. He's my favorite player in the league to watch right now, and I think he makes the superstar-leap this year. In the only Timberwolves game I attended last year, I watched him torch the Wolves for 30, including the game-winner on an impossible fade-away 3 from the corner. I STILL believe he's more Bernard King than Glenn Robinson. I do agree with the pundits who said that his dominance in the World Championships this summer was due to the fact his game translates better to the international game than the NBA. However, I also think that experience and further bonding with Bronbron and Dwade will get the competitive fire burning more than ever. Wade's got a title. Lebron looks on the cusp. Melo does not want to be left behind. The Nuggs division title hopes rest largely on other factors however: one is low-post health. For Marcus Camby (used to be mentioned in the same sentence as Fred Taylor and Grant Hill when it came to frailness) and Nene (missed all of last year with knee injury) it's physical health. For Kenyon Martin, it's mental. The other factor is getting something- ANYTHING!- out of the shooting guard spot. The Nuggs may have stole JR Smith from the Bulls. I say MAY because the kid has the talent to be a star, but he hasn't proven yet he's got the desire. This is where Melo's leadership will be needed more than ever.
3. PHOENIX SUNS, Pacific (54-28) One of these days I'll have to delve into "The Curse of the Power Forward." Think about it, starting with Lenny Bias' death we've seen at least 4 transcendent talents at power forward fizzle in the L: Bias, Derrick Coleman, Chris Webber, and Shawn Kemp. All had ridiculous game but for one reason or another they never lived up to their mountainous potential. I'm worried we could be adding Amare Stoudamire to that list soon. "Micro-fracture surgery" has become the scariest phrase in basketball, especially for a guy like Amare who depends so much on explosiveness. The guy who before his surgery I had rated as one of the top 3 guys in the league I'd start a team around, now is fighting just to play again. Personally, I think Stoudamire never fully returns to his pre-injury form. For Phoenix, even if they get Amare at 80% of what he was, they're the best team in the league. However, I don't think you're going to get even 80% of him for a full 82 games. Not only will he be trying to work his knee back in shape, you're now trying to work a guy back into your offense that needs the ball. With 2-time MVP Stevie Nash (seriously that's STILL surreal to type- and keep in mind I'm Canadian, you hosers!) running the show, sharing shouldn't be a problem, but it's the small stuff like this that can tweak a team's chemistry just enough to change things. If Amare's back to 80% by the end of the year, this is the favorite come playoff time, but I have my doubts that happens this year- or ever. The other thing working against Phoenix? Nash cut his hair. Has he not heard the story of Sampson?
2. SAN ANTONIO SPURS, Southwest (63-19) Honestly, I've got them in 2nd only because of the "nobody's had the conference's best record 2 years in a row" thing. Tim Duncan had an "off" year by his standards, Manu was never quite himself, and Big Shot Bob's age might have finally caught up with him. And they STILL won 63 games!!!! Duncan will have a monster comeback, Manu will be feisty and annoying as ever, and I'm sure teams will inexplicably continue to guard Tony Parker like he has a jumpshot (even though he obviously doesn't), allowing him to drive and slash and dish and score. I hate the Spurs, but this is my pick to win the whole thing- which means another boring, methodical NBA Finals. Oh well, at least it will mean plenty of shots of Eva Longoria. Mmmmmmmmm hi Eva.
1. DALLAS MAVERICKS, Southwest (60-22) Well we'll definitely see what Dirk Diggler Nowitzki is made of now. He finally broke the Euro-stereotype of disappearing in the playoffs- well at least until the Finals. Dirk became human against the Heat, and that (well besides the fact the Mavs were getting called for fouls on Dwyane Wade the moment they got off the bus) was one of the main reasons a title eluded the Mavs. How do they respond? Will the be as fiery as ever? With the Little General Avery Johnson, I say yes. They resigned Jason Terry, which was HUGE for their chemistry, and these guys know what to expect now from each other and from a long playoff run. Dirk will be in the MVP-running again, Devin Harris SHOULD become a bigger factor, and with another deep bench the Mavs will have no shortage of scorers. By the way, LOVE the Maurice Ager pick. The Mavs are too deep for him to be in the rookie-of-the-year conversation, but he'll still be one of the league's best rooks from day 1. Still, I think the Spurs will be just a bit better when they meet in the conference finals.
Well here we go with my 3rd Annual NBA Preview. I'd like to say I'm a year older and a year wiser in making my predictions, but you know that's not true. A 4 part preview as before: non-playoff teams in the West, West playoff teams, and then the same for the East. We start with the 7 teams who won't be making the postseason, and who's only solace is knowing that all those teams except the one from Portland would be in the playoffs if they were in that other conference. Seriously. The West is that loaded.
Scarily enough, I did some research this year on the 7 seasons leading up to this one, from 1999-2000 to 05-06. Here's some things to keep in mind about the Western Conference: * only two teams have made the playoffs the last 7 years: one's the Spurs, and I bet you won't get the other one (they won't make the playoffs this year, and are somewhere in today's preview, so you've got some time to ponder that because this is going to get wordy!). 4 others have made it at least 5 times. * Never have more than 3 teams made the playoffs when they didn't make it the previous year, but there was always at least 1 new team every year. What does that tell you? That there's certainly parity in basketball, but not to the extent of football, where almost half the playoff field changes from year-to-year. In basketball one player can dominate a game more than in any other pro team sport, so it's not suprising that teams with dominant players stand a good chance of making the playoffs for as long as that guy is dominant (well unless of course that guy is Kevin Garnett and your GM is incompetent). * No team has had the conference's top record two years running. * The Don Stern refused to get rid of his moronic 3 division conference format, but he at least tweaked it a little bit. Unlike last year, where the Nuggets had the 6th best record but got the 3rd seed because they won their division, this year the division winner is guaranteed no worse than 4th. So if two teams from the same division (oh like say Dallas and San Antonio) have the 2 best records, they will get the top 2 seeds. * Just for a point of reference, here's how the team's finished last year:
15. PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS, Northwest Division (2005 record: 21-61) Not sure how things get worse for Portland. They took one of the most passionate and loyal fanbases in the country and killed them with pot-smokin' gun-totin' dog-fightin' thugs who were much better at getting arrested than making the playoffs. Now owner Paul Allen is complaining about a horrible arena lease THAT HE WILLINGLY SIGNED, and wants to move the team. And the final straw was passing on Adam Morrison, a guy that would have actually brought fans back to the Rose Garden, for Lamarcus Aldrige, who I said last year and will continually say is soft and will make Sto Swift look consistent. The Brandon Roy pick was a good one, but they could have had him and Morrison. Just another day at the office for the Blazers.
14. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES, Northwest (33-49) KG had a good year last year, and this team still only won 33 games. Now they're counting on Mike James, who magically came alive during his free-agent-to-be year, and a rookie in Randy Foye to help Garnett carry this team back to the playoffs? Really? Have I mentioned they have NOTHING in the post and a $34 million dollar European nothing at point guard? Garnett could have an MVP year, James could average similar numbers to last year and Foye could win rookie of the year and they're STILL not going to the playoffs. Minnesotans, catch KG while you can because he won't be here next year. But don't worry, Kevin McHale probably will be.
13. OKLAHOMA CITY SONICS, Northwest (35-47) Poor Howard Schultz. The Starbucks founder and BILLIONAIRE just couldn't doop the fine folks of the Emerald City into building him a brand new arena. So what'd he do? Slammed down his triple espresso skim latte in a hissy fit and sold the team in a huff to buyers in Oklahoma that will move the team down there in 2007. Oh and poor Howard, the guy who claimed the team was hemorraging money in Key Arena, got $250 million more than he paid for the Sonics. Thanks for ruining my basketball team, Howard. What's left is a decent core with Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, and Chris Wilcox, but there's not enough front-court depth to keep this team in the playoff hunt. It'll also be hard for the guys to concentrate when the new owners are telling the players "no no you'll LOVE Oklahoma! We've got wind and rodeos! And cows! And cowboy hats! You'll love them!" Oklahoma will make Utah look like Vegas in comparison.
12. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES, Southwest (49-33) No Pau Gasol for the first two months means no playoffs for the Grizz. Even I can do that math. But as will be mentioned 9,482,765 times between now and draft day 2007, this is one of the best drafts in decades, so it's not the worst year to take a one year hiatus from the playoffs. Oh and quick, can you name another Grizzly besides Gasol? Didn't think so. Mike Skinny Miller will keep bombing threes, and the transition year should give good experience for rooks Rudy #### and Kyle Lowery. Definitely a team with a bright future...well as bright as can be for a team that will be owned by Dukie's Christian Laettner and Brian Davis. Who else is in that ownership group? Alaa Abdulnaby, Thomas Hill, and Cherokee Parks?
11. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS, Southwest (38-44) Here begins the list of 11 playoff teams in the Western Conference. The problem for 3 of them is: they're only taking 8. The Hornets were last year's surprise team, right in the playoff hunt before losing 11 of 14 in March to knock themselves out of contention. A good young team saw some breakout years from power forward David West, and Rookie-of-the-Year point guard Chris Paul. Now with the big additions of small forward Peja Stojakovic and center Tyson Chandler, the Hornets should be all set to continue their rise into the playoffs right? Wrong. New Orleans played over their heads for most of the year, and came back to earth late in the season. Chris Paul will be an allstar, and David West will be solid, but there's still way too many holes in this lineup. Bobby Jackson won't be as good for this team as the departed Speedy Claxton was, and although Peja Stojakovic is a nice addition on the perimeter, he's not the player he used to be, and brings nothing else to the table besides shooting and a beard. Tyson Chandler? People are acting like the Hornest picked up the next Bill Russell. Please. The guy averaged 6 pts, 9 rebs, and 1.5 blks last year. He's a decent NBA center but not a guy who's going to propel you into the playoffs. THe Hornets are going in the right direction and should be around the 40 win mark, but they'll miss the playoffs this year.
10. SACRAMENTO KINGS, Pacific (44-38) Here's your trivia answer: yes the Kings have made the playoffs every year of this century, but it looks like that nice run will come to an end in 2007. They've got all-star caliber players in C Brad Miller, PG Mike Bibby, PF Shareef Abdur-Raheem, and of course SF Ron-Ron Artest. A couple of problems in Cali's Capital though: 1st is Artest. I LOVE Ron-Ron when he decides to play, but the guy is a walking circus, and you just can't count on him to behave for 82 games. 2nd was letting Bonzi Wells go. Was he asking for too much? Yes, but who are they going to have replace him? Wells carried the Kings in the 1st round, and almost upset the Spurs. Now he's gone to Houston, and the Kings are going to try and replace him with Francisco Garcia, who's a nice role player, but not an NBA starter. The 3rd problem is depth-- the Kings don't have any, especially in the front court where they have Kenny Thomas in a rotation with Miller and Shareef- and that's it! Injuries or fatigue will take its toll here. The Kings will be around .500, but just out of the playoffs, meaning the Maloof brothers will have more time to spend at their casino in Vegas. Not that they need it.
9. UTAH JAZZ, Northwest (41-41) I REALLY want to put this team in the playoffs, and in the weak Northwest Division, where it's basically just them and Denver, they've got a good chance. They won 41 games last year while only getting 33 games out of PF Carlos Boozer, using a rookie point guard, and missing their best shooter, Matt Harpring for most of the year. That rookie, Deron Williams, looked much improved by year's end, and Harpring should be back at full strength for the opener. They also added an athletic SG in the draft in Corey Brewer, who should help fill a gaping hole at the 2guard (well that's IF they can get coach Jerry Sloan to trust a rookie). And I haven't even mentioned the NBA's best defender, SF Andre Kirilenko, or underrated C Memet Okur. So what's holding the Jazz back? Let me put it this way: they make the WNBA look athletic, and in a conference that's getting faster and will be running more than ever, that's a problem. There's nothing wrong with slow, methodical, fundamental basketball (other than being painful to watch), and should get the Jazz at least back to .500, but they just don't have enough fire power to run and gun in the wild West this year.
