The images are still burned in my brain. It was the Giants vs. the 49ers, a Wild Card playoff game. I wasn’t actually in San Francisco that fateful day, January 5, 2003, but that didn’t make it any less painful. I watched a 38-14 Giants lead rapidly diminish, and then ultimately, vanish completely (to this day, I curse the name Trey Junkin). My beloved New York football Giants have not participated in a playoff game since. Thankfully, this will finally change on Sunday afternoon, when the Giants take on the Carolina Panthers, to kick off a very intriguing Wild Card doubleheader (I can’t recall four 11-5 teams playing on the same day in the Wild Card round). It’s a compelling match-up, which should feature plenty of scoring, and should be close throughout. Let’s break it down.

When the Panthers have the ball…

…they will score a fair amount of points. This, I believe, is a given. If Doug Gabriel of the Raiders can have his way with the Giants secondary, then so can Steve Smith. He will score at least one touchdown (and surely follow it up with an over-the-top, end-zone celebration dance), and he should easily top one hundred yards receiving. The Giants task on defense is twofold. First, they must shut DeShaun Foster down. This task is not as difficult as it seems. His two best games have come against the Falcons, who fielded an atrocious run defense in the second half of the season (good job by the Falcons, by the way, in staying within 35 of the Panthers last week!). Throw those games out, and Foster has not topped 80 yards in any other game this season, throwing in some real clunkers along the way (16 carries for 23 yards against Tampa Bay). I don’t think Foster is good enough to exploit the Giants injury-riddled front seven. As the game goes on, he’ll find that the yards will be hard to come by. Secondly, the Giants must put a ton of pressure of Panthers QB Jake Delhomme. Tackles Travelle Wharton and Jordan Gross will have their hands full with the dynamic duo of Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora (the argument could legitimately be made that Osi’s name belongs first). Watch out for Giants rookie Justin Tuck, a defensive end who could line up at defensive tackle on certain plays, and wreak havoc with a speed rush up the middle. The Carolina line can be had, as the Chicago Bears proved a few weeks back, in getting to the quarterback eight times in their Week 11 victory. When Delhomme gets time, he will make plays. He has won, and played well, in playoff games before, compiling a 3-1 record in Carolina’s Super Bowl run two years ago. The forecast calls for the temperature to hover around freezing, with light winds, so Delhomme shouldn’t find too much trouble with the conditions. Carolina will score a decent amount of points no matter what. If they can run the ball and protect their quarterback, they’ll score at will.

Advantage: Panthers

When the Giants have the ball…

…they’ll be running. You can bank on it. The way you win January football games in the Northeast is by running the football. The way the Panthers defense has played of late, allowing big rushing yardage to pedestrian backs like Julius Jones of the Cowboys, this shouldn’t be too much of a problem for MVP candidate Tiki Barber. Provided MLB Dan Morgan comes back for this game (it’s looking like a good bet that he will), the Panthers should have the personnel to, at least, contain Barber. He’ll certainly get his yards, but I doubt we’ll see a fourth two hundred yard performance from him in this one. Eli Manning will be starting his first playoff game. His cool temperament, though, does not suggest that the extreme pressure of the postseason will be his undoing. His undoing, rather, will be Julius Peppers. Giants LT Luke Petitgout held his own against 2005 sack king Derrick Burgess last week, limiting him to only 1 sack on the night. He’ll need to step up his play this week, though, because Peppers has the potential to wreck the game. Manning has been inconsistent of late, and this probably will not change against a solid Carolina defense. The thing that Manning must do, first and foremost, is protect the football. Peppers is likely to blindside him once or twice. Manning must feel the rush, and just hang on to the ball. His pocket presence is exceedingly strong, and it will be crucial for his success this week. Jeremy Shockey is likely to return this week, after sitting out last week against Oakland with a sprained ankle, and this is a huge boost for the Giants offense. It will be very interesting to see how Carolina appropriates their personnel defensively. If they can contain Barber without committing an eighth man to the box, then the Giants will find the points hard to come by. Considering the big games that running backs have had against them in recent weeks, I don’t believe that they can. Keep in mind, only the Cowboys have kept the Giants under twenty points this season (twice). Even with an inexperienced triggerman, this offense is explosive.

Advantage: Giants

When the special teams units are on the field…

…both teams will believe they have an edge. The Panthers will look to get Steve Smith the ball any way they can in this game, and that likely means he will handle kickoff returns, in addition to his usual punt return duties. With the Giants decimated at linebacker, they’ve lost some key special teams personnel. So I could very easily see Smith breaking a big return or two. On the other side, Chad Morton has picked up his game in recent weeks, returning kicks and punts for the Giants. His punt return in the Oakland game last week was a crucial play in the Giants victory. The Panthers have not yielded a fifty yard kick return this season, so Morton isn’t likely to impose his will on the game. John Kasay will make a game winner under forty-five yards for Carolina, Jay Feely does not give the Giants the same kind of confidence, though. Jeff Feagles and Jason Baker are both solid punters.

Slight Advantage: Panthers

The two coaches…

…are evenly matched. John Fox’s one playoff run as head coach was successful, as he took his team to the Super Bowl two years ago. Tom Coughlin’s Jacksonville teams seemed to underachieve somewhat in January, as his ’99 team was better than Tennessee, and should’ve gone to the Super Bowl. Coughlin is a little more reckless than Fox, and this could hurt him in this game. I like aggression, but sometimes Coughlin takes it a little too far. Also, Coughlin’s game management has been shaky on certain occasions this year, most notably in the Seattle and Philadelphia games, when he accepted penalties that he should’ve declined. Fox’s game management skills seem to be superior.

Slight Advantage: Panthers  

The X-Factor…

…is the same as it always is in a playoff game. TURNOVERS! Who forces them? Who scores when they get them? Both of these teams thrive on takeaways (Panthers are +16, Giants are +11), as these defenses are most opportunistic. This is nearly impossible to predict, but my guess is that the Giants, at home, are less likely to make a crucial mistake in a big spot.

Advantage: Giants

My Prediction: Giants 28, Panthers 24 (my head, not my heart. I swear)

For some reason, when I play this game out in my head, I’m convinced that the Panthers are going to score 24. I guess this is because I think that 24 is the most you can expect out of a one-dimensional offense. At home, where the Giants are 8-1 (thanks again, Tags), I think the Giants can top that. No doubt this one will be close and exciting. Enjoy it, everybody!