They've hit the quarter pole in the NFL season, four games to go. It's a good time to take the temperature of all the remaining contenders, and examine their chances for January and beyond. Let's start with the two-time defending champions.

AFC

EAST

New England Patriots, (7-5);

Even with their mediocre record, the Patriots have long been in the driver's seat for a playoff berth, by way of the AFC East championship. They've been, pretty much, locked into the AFC's number 4 seed for a few weeks now. They'll host a wild-card game, most likely against Jacksonville. This team, with their injury-plagued defense, is nowhere near as good as they've been in the past few years. Still, they should be very proud of what they have accomplished this year, even though their division is atrocious. Their mission this year is to win that first playoff game, at home, and then, most likely, travel to Indianapolis, to scare the pants off of Peyton Manning and the Colts. The outcome of that game will likely be different this year, but the Pats are still firmly entrenched in the heads of the Indianapolis Colts, and the week 9 victory didn't change that.

NORTH

Cincinnati Bengals, (9-3);

Forgive me, but I'm not a believer yet in this group. Offensively, yes, we all know that can hack it, that's for sure. Defensively, this unit still has a lot of questions to answer. They're good at forcing turnovers, and they can, somewhat, stop the run. But their secondary is dreadful. Any team with a decent passing attack can have their way with this group. Their siganture wins are against a Chicago team that hadn't hit its stride when they played them, and against a Steeler team that now has a three game losing streak. I need to see more. The whole key for them is going to be whether or not they can sneak into that number two seed. They have a very easy schedule over the next three games, with a trip to Kansas City looming in their finale. Their competition is Denver, who likewise has an easy three game stretch, followed by a tough final contest on the road (at San Diego). Denver owns the tiebreaker. If the Bengals don't get that number two seed, I think they can be had in the wild-card round, at home, against either San Diego or Kansas City. If they do get it, they very easily could win their first home game, and find themselves one game away from Detroit.

Pittsburgh Steelers, (7-5);

Playoff teams don't lose three games in a row, and this is exactly what the Steelers have done. Their offensive line, a force over the last few years, has faultered lately. This a led to the demise of the, formerly prolific, Steeler rushing attack. Plus, their young quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, is nursing several injuries. It's not exactly a good time for the Steelers to welcome the Bears into town, which they will do tomorrow. The Steels must run the table if they have any chance to make the playoffs. Their schedule isn't impossible (Chicago, @Minnesota, @Cleveland, Detroit), but the way they're playing right now, four wins seems impossible. Last week's loss to Cincinnati probably siganaled a changing of the guard in the AFC North for a long time to come.

SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts, (12-0);

The questions that I have about the Colts cannot be answered in the regular season. They revolve around Peyton Manning, and his ability, or rather, inability to this point in his career, to win the big game. It certainly appears as though that will change this season, but we won't know for sure until we see it. The x-factor is the undefeated season this team currently has going. It might be in their best interests to lose a game in the regular season, as the pressure will be absolutely enormous if this team takes a perfect record into January. That said, there is no way Tony Dungy can sit his players in these final few games, even though they are on the verge of already clinching homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. History is at stake, and the Colts are compelled to take their best shot.

Jacksonville Jaguars, (9-3);

Jacksonville ended up getting a good break, and a bad break this season, as far as their standing in the AFC is concerned. The good break is their ridiculously easy schedule, which will allow them, even with a back-up quarterback currently under center, to cruise to the playoffs. The bad break is being stuck in the same division with the Colts, as the number five seed is the best this team can do. Even with East Carolina's David Garrard under center, the Jags should do enough to get that number five seed. Their season will be defined by a wild-card playoff encounter with the Patriots. If they win it, their season was a success, if not, it was a failure. All indications are that Byron Leftwich will be back for that first playoff game, and this is crucial for their chances.

WEST

Denver Broncos, (9-3);

Despite their loss to Kansas City last week, this team is still in the driver's seat to pick up the other first round bye in the AFC playoffs. Their quarterback, the much-scrutinized Jake Plummer, had been remarkably efficient this season, right up until last week. He threw two costly picks against the Chiefs, and took a step back from some of the progress he had made this season. Plummer is the key to Denver's playoff chances. If he plays the way he has most of the season, Denver should get a chance to knock off Indianapolis in the AFC title game. If he plays the way he did last week, this team could miss out on their first round bye, and possibly lose their first playoff game.

San Diego Chargers, (8-4);

I'm inclined to agree with the prevailing thought out there right now that this is the second best team in the sport. They've had an impossible schedule, that they've somehow navigated through successfully to this point. With Denver's easy remaining schedule, the Chargers probably can do no better than second best in this division. It appears as though it will come down to a week 16 battle with division rival Kansas City, on the road, to decide the AFC's final playoff spot. If this team gets in, though, watch out. They can beat anybody. And yes, Colts fans, I mean ANYBODY.

Kansas City Chiefs, (8-4);

This team got a rough break with the schedule, as their final five opponents all have winning records. They began that brutal stretch with a big win at home last week against the Broncos. Now, they take their show on the road for two games. They absolutely must come home with, at least, one win, if they want to have a chance. Their best shot probably comes tomorrow, against Dallas. If they fail in that spot, they would then be faced with the prospect of beating the Giants in the Meadowlands (where they're 7-1 this season), with a short week of rest. If, however, they can find a way to split those two games, their destiny is in their hands, as they get San Diego and Cincinnati at home to finish out the season. This team is a little better than people have given them credit for, and I still think their playoff chances are legitimate.

NFC

EAST

New York Giants, (8-4);

This team is maddeningly inconsistent. At times, they look like they can beat anybody. At times, they look like they can lose to anybody. With four games to go, this team needs to run the table if they have any serious thoughts about Motown. They must get the first round bye, or else be faced with the prospect of having their second-year quarterback win two road playoff games. The Giants will proabably lose one of these last four, and will probably have to settle for a division title, and a number three or four seed. Still, this team is ahead of schedule. If they win the NFC East title, and follow it up with a playoff victory, this season has to be considered a huge success. And, off the top of my head, they will probably be the favorites to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLI.

Dallas Cowboys, (7-5);

This team faces a must-win game this week, at home, against the Chiefs. They've lost two straight, and abosolutely must have this one if they want to stay in the playoff hunt. Their chances don't look good for the division after last week's defeat at the hands of the Giants, and they must now shift their focus to the wild-card. The next three games are tough for them (KC, @Washington, @Carolina), and they must win two. If they are to do that, they must protect their quarterback better than they have the last few weeks. I don't think they can.

Washington Redskins, (6-6)

I include the Redskins in this discussion only because their schedule gives them an opportunity to run the table (@Arizona, Dallas, Giants, @Philadelphia). They must play better than they have recently, though, or this will not matter. Their offense looked prolific at times earlier in the season. But this team has not been the same since they took it on the chin (36-0) against the Giants in East Rutherford. They will probably lose one of the home divisional contests, and end their season at 9-7, thinking of what might have been.

NORTH

Chicago Bears, (9-3);

The Bears have forced us to believe in them, as they have stubbornly won eight in a row. But when a team on that type of winning streak is contemplating a quarterback switch, that tells you all you need to know about their meager offensive production. I have a su####ion that this team will not travel all that well, so the two seed is crucial for them. They have the tiebreaker advantage over Carolina, but they also have a very tough schedule down the stretch (@Pittsburgh, Atlanta, @Green Bay, @Minnesota). Carolina probably catches them for the two seed, and this team's playoff stay is probably brief. Still, great job by Lovie Smith and this defense. They've been far better than anyone expected.

Minnesota Vikings, (7-5);

How on earth did this team get back to respectability? Their game against the Giants completely reversed their fortunes. It was a game in which their offense scored three points, but they still managed to win (defense and special teams combined for 21). Still, don't be fooled. The win against the Giants was a complete fluke, and they don't own a victory against anybody else of note. Still, with three out of their last four at home, they have a chance to get to ten wins, and an outside shot at the playoffs.

SOUTH 

Carolina Panthers, (9-3);

For a while, I liked this team a lot. But they have a huge problem. They cannot run the football the way that the other NFC contenders can. Delhomme to Smith has been a deadly tandem, but they cannot carry the Panthers. DeShaun Foster must get on a roll down the stretch if this team wants to get to the Super Bowl once again. I think they will eke out a playoff bye, but probably fall short in the end.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, (8-4);

This team has survived the loss of starting quarterback Brian Griese, to make it to the final month of the season with a good chance to get a wild-card berth. It would be a huge help to this team if they won one of their next two games (@Carolina, @New England), but they actually could still sneak in even if they lost both. A week 16 tilt with division rival Atlanta will be crucial. Chris Simms has been mediocre to this point. He must raise his play slightly if he wants to lead his team into the playoffs. Given that his team already has eight wins, he probably will do so.

Atlanta Falcons, (7-5);

I hope the Falcons enjoy the gimme they're going to get on Monday night when they host the Saints. Because after that, it will get really tough for them. They face back-to-back daunting road tests at Chicago and at Tampa Bay, followed by a tough test at home against Carolina. With this team having lost three of its last four, their chances don't look very good.

WEST

Seattle Seahawks, (10-2);

I've noticed that this site draws a ton of Seahawk fans, for some reason. Those fans will probably not be too thrilled with my assessment that, on a neutral field, I think each of the other three NFC division leader can beat them. They probably will, however, appreciate the fact that I'm picking the Seahawks to get blown out in the Super Bowl this year. Qwest Field is an incredible advantage for that team (ask the Giants offensive line), and they will be stationed there throughout the NFC playoffs. This team does not have to apoligize for beating up bad teams, they're simply playing the teams on their schedule. I still suspect that a good offense can score the points they need to on that Seahawk defense, and a good defense can silence Shaun Alexander, and force Matt Hasselbeck to throw the ball to receivers that don't really have the capability to stretch the field. But, they're probably headed to Detroit.

So, to recap, here's my predictions (if you care) for the playoffs

AFC:

Division Winners: 1. Indianapolis, 2. Denver, 3. Cincinnati, 4. New England

Wild Cards: 5. Jacksonville, 6. San Diego

Wild Card Round: San Diego over Cincinnati, New England over Jacksonville

Divisional Round: Indianapolis over San Diego, Denver over New England

Championship Round: Indianapolis over Denver

NFC:

Division Winners: 1. Seattle, 2. Carolina, 3. Chicago, 4. N.Y. Giants

Wild Cards: 5. Tampa Bay, 6. Minnesota

Wild Card Round: Minnesota over Chicago, N.Y. Giants over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round: Seattle over Minnesota, Carolina over N.Y. Giants

Championship Round: Seattle over Carolina

Super Bowl:

Indianapolis (finally) over Seattle

Let me take a second to point out just how much it bothers me to pick mostly favorites. I absolutely hate not going out on a limb, because there's no fun in being right. But based on what I've seen this season, I'm fully convinced that this will be very close to the ultimate outcome. I hope not. This season could use some excitement.

Now on to my Week 14 picks. I went 3-1 in this space last week, winning with the Giants, Panthers, and Chiefs, and losing with the Steelers. Let's see if I can pick it up a little this week.

Chiefs at Cowboys

I've been back and forth on this game, a very tough one to call. The Chiefs are not the same away from home. Plus, their defensive front is not good enough to exploit the Cowboys' glaring offensive line weakness. That said, I don't like Dallas coming into this game off of two very tough losses. And I think Kansas City can put points on the board against the solid Dallas defense. If Kansas City can hold their own on defense, they can win the game. When in doubt, take the points. I'll take the field goal, and hope Kansas City can get it done.

Tampa Bay at Carolina

The Panthers beat up on the Bucs in Tampa earlier in the season. I suspect they will go it again, at home, tomorrow afternoon. I don't like Chris Simms on the road, plus the Panthers will get Dan Morgan back on defense, a huge pickup for them at linebacker. Panthers might string a few wins together, I suspect. It starts tomorrow. Six points makes me a little nervous, but I'll give it up, and hope Carolina can cover it.

Chicago at Pittsburgh

What's wrong with this picture? The team on an eight game winning streak is a six point underdog to the team with the three game losing streak. They're begging you to take Chicago in this spot, and I can't resist. I think the Steelers might be falling apart, especially on the offensive end. If you put a gun to my head, I'd still pick the Steelers to win the game outright, but I can't turn my back on six points with this awesome Bears defense. Since I'm not sure the Steelers will even score six in this game, I'll take the points.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

I simply do not have the guts to pick against the Colts until they lose. Jacksonville might've been a viable threat to take them down, but then Byron Leftwich suffered an injury that will keep him on the sidelines for this one. The Jags defense has played well against the Colts in the past, but, for no tangible reason, I have a feeling that trend will be reversed in this game. Giving up eight points, on the road, against a defense like Jacksonville's makes you think for a moment. But with the 12-0 Colts, you don't have a problem ultimately doing it. I'll give up the hefty eight points in this one, and take the Colts to go 13-0.