Ahead of the opening race of the season, which I’m counting here as the Bud shoot-out, I’ve decided to preview and predict the chances of the 11 teams that will be running the Toyota Camry full time this season. In fact the shootout should give an idea on the Camry’s true pace, with 6 of them taking the green flag. Why, you ask? They have already been surprising a fair few of us in the pre-season test, represent one of the major potential talking points for the next 11 months or so. And, oh I’ll admit, I just like them.

Overview: Toyota in the Cup and Nationwide series’ has always had the possibility of going two ways, which can be labelled ‘Truck’ or ‘F1’. After entering the truck series in 2004, Toyota have gone onto near domination of the series, winning 13 of 25 races in 2007. On the other hand Toyota’s foray into Formula 1 has been a bit of a train wreck. Since their entry in 2002, with what is widely reputed to be the largest budget in the sport, they have recorded only 2 pole positions and 1 fastest lap, in 105 races.

On last year’s performances their Busch (Nationwide) assault appeared to be heading down the truck root, scoring two victories through drivers Jason Leffler and David Reutimann, and looking competitive just about all season. Their Cup teams seemed headed for the Formula 1 category, with their drivers spending an awful lot of time failing to qualify, and Dave Blaney, who spent the whole year hovering around the top 35 being their top performer in the final standings.

Pre-season testing says they seem to have turned a corner. I don’t care what you pin it to. Another year’s experience, the apparent levelling qualities of the COT, the input of the Gibbs people into the manufacturer’s equipment. They shone at Daytona, colonising the top of most of the test charts, none more so than the morning session of the 15th, where Camrys took 11 of the top 13 spots. However, there was no reason to say they wouldn’t after their similar domination of the ‘Dega chase race qualifying session. In Vegas they showed well, although their domination was a little less, and at Fontana they slid back into the pack. Why? Who knows, sand-bagging after driving the wheels off the competition in the earlier tests? Car not up to handling tracks? Only time will tell.

Now to take in the 11 teams in an obvious order.

#00 – The first part of the MWR roundabout, with David Reutimann handing off to Michael McDowell and Josh Wise after the first 6 races. This team will depend hugely on whether David can cement a top 35 spot in those first 6 races. From the outside it’s going to be a hard task getting in, but if the Camry’s test form is true it could happen. David showed himself to be a good qualifier last season, and with a year’s experience he could push into the top 35. If he manages it the the two rookie drivers there after have a great chance to gain experience, if he doesn’t I can’t see this car being more than TRD’s R&D car.

#11 – The first of Toyota’s silly season acquisitions. Hamlin is a proven race winner, and despite a small slump from his incredible rookie season last year he maintained winning ways, and repeated his Chase berth. The new dynamic at Gibbs may be his undoing, he is now, arguably the “weak” link of the three drivers. The inter-team competition could be something to watch this year, with three committed drivers with egos to match in the same team. Hamlin may pick up a win or two this season, but he may miss out on the top 12.

#18 – The same problems as Hamlin surround little Busch, coupled to him not only driving a new car, but with a new team. He was very much third fiddle at Hendrick (although admittedly there aren’t many drivers who would be disappointed with that) so perhaps moving out of the shadow of his team-mates may help, but he’s moved straight into Tony’s shadow. And my what a shadow it is. As a prediction Busch will struggle the most of the three Gibbs cars, failing to notch a win, and of course missing the chase.

#20 – Step forward Toyota’s first Cup victor. This man was fast in a Pontiac for crying out loud. As I’ve blogged before he’ll win before May, and it won’t be his only trophy. Undoubtedly, with his past history he’ll be both Toyota’s biggest asset, and worst enemy. Over the course of the season he’ll be Toyota’s best performer by far, giving them a maiden chase berth, but as yet not a maiden cup title.

#22 – Dave Blaney is due a break or two. He showed last year he was capable of great runs, his 3rd at Dega was the Camry’s highest showing of the year. Bad Luck and unreliability slaughtered his season, starting from the beginning, when despite being guaranteed a starting spot in the first 6 races, he fell out of the top 35. Overall he had 8 DNFs, and several incidents robbed him of decent finishes, such as Richmond where an accident stole what looked like being Toyota’s first top 10. Dave has been tipped as a sleeper pick, and a possible to collect a maiden win. Now for obvious reason I’d love that, but I can’t see it personally. He’ll make a massive improvement of last year, popping into the top 20 in points.

#27 – Oh dear, oh dear. There’s no nice of way of saying this. Jacques won’t make the season. He’s going to have to qualify on speed for at least the opening races, and although he managed it at Phoenix and Dega, Sam Hornish showed that doing it on a regular basis in a different prospect. His disappointing performances, and BDR’s money problems along with his special power of annoying everyone, will see him out on his behind before November.

#44 – MWR musical chairs part 2. Jarrett has guaranteed starts in the opening races, so anything other than a top 35 spot after that should be a disappointment. As I mention with the #00 Reutimann has talent in buckets, so has the ability to keep it there. A safe second season, cementing a top 35 position for the season.

#55 – Mikey will not win Daytona (especially not powered by Vasoline). Along with Jacques and A.J. the 55 could be Toyota’s let down. Michael will struggle to qualify for races, and may well step out of the car in favour of team ownership duties. Whether this happens during the season, in favour of one of the rookie’s pencilled in for the #00 ride, or even one of the ousted former cup drivers, or at the end of the season is probably the biggest turning point.

#83 – Vickers is my pick for the surprise of the season. When he managed to qualify for races last year he spent them going fast near the front, and from his Hendrick years we know he has ability. The possible boost in horsepower and Red Bull’s extra year of experience will see him take on the top-35, having the sort of season Blaney did last. He’s also a dark horse for a Toyota win, most probably in a race that comes down to fuel mileage.

#84 – If this guy has a difficult second season he’ll be doing races in reverse. The only way is up for Allmendinger, but I can’t see him getting very far off the ground. Yes, he’ll have an extra year of personal experience, an extra year of team experience and whatever developments ‘Yota can come up with pushing him round, but I only expect a repeat of ’07. Lots of Sundays off, and lots of bent bits of dark blue sheet metal.

#96 – Yeley moves to Gibbs’ second squad at HOF, which of course brings with it some advantages of getting the know-how of the manufacturers top team. At Gibbs he was always the weak link, so getting their input, while not being publically out-done by team-mates could give him a boost. Yeley is another guy who may well get a break-through win in a solid season.

It's the sharp end of the season, and in the championship race is in it's engineered closeness, even though it's probably a 3 (or generously 4 horse race now) so I can forgive a majority of mainstream media coverage being about the contenders, but the 'also rans' deserve a mention when they do something good.

Last weekend at Talladega the Toyotas (who at times this year would be in the dictionary under 'also ran') swept all qualifying before them, with at clutch of the top positions for Sunday's race. Many (myself included) put this down to the fact they were set up of single lap speed rather than running in the draft, and this may be true (I think it was Villenueve's official reason for volunteering to move to the back). But, the acquitted themselves remarkably during the race. Jacques kept up with leaders all day, eventually finishing 21st. Even more remarkable was how Toyota's pole-sitter Michael Waltrip ran - bothering the top-10 or 15 just about all day until his tyre let go. The same goes for David Reutimann, who was taken out in The Big One, ending a promising run. And finally Dave Blaney, who qualified second and ran well all day, finishing 3rd (2nd had the finish line been a few yards later).

And yet, only a handful of post-race words were dedicated to this seeminingly miraculous turn around, while entire tomes were produced about anything Hendrick touched.

And right now, post Lowe's the same thing is in danger of happening.

OK, so the Yotas didn't qualify well, with Brian Vickers being the largest casualty. But this weekend is probably the biggest step forward this season.

The race wasn't anything special, no fuel mileage - which gave Vickers a 5th in the 600 at Lowe's, no lottery like super-speedway.  Lowe's is a bread-and-butter track, run well at Lowe's and your on to a winner.

But the race looked like 'Dega success all over again. A.J. Allmendinger - who has had possibly the wort season of any Camry driver - ran well and appeared to have a top-10 in his grasp before failing to 15th - but when you add to that the fact that Johnson, who appears to make Lowe's his own personal playground, was 14th, suddenly 15th seems a decent result (Yes, I know JJ's race included spin and damage, but give AJ a chance).

But, taking his place in the top-10 was Michael Waltrip in 10th, coming back from his part in a spin during the race for only his second top-10 of the season. But again the main kudos went to Blaney, finishing 6th. Coming from a 34th start Blaney made progress all day, making progress through the field while many of those who started around him fell laps down. This is Dave's 3rd consecutive top-15 - he finished 15th at Kansas, and has put him safely in the top-35 owner point for now, having passed the #21 after Dega, and the 45 at Lowe's.

So these finishes and drives may go unreported while we find out that Jeff Gordon wore green socks on Saturday night, I like to think I've gone some way to redressing the balance.

Firstly I want to start this post with an apology.

To NASCAR,

Sorry for thinking you'd screw up Talladega this weekend. The COT worked well, the racing got 3-4 wide like it should and Petty's accident shows that we may have finally got over the headline grabbing flips that have punctuated past races at the plate tracks.

You didn't have any phantom debris cautions, or other convenient events to help the guys you supposedly favour.

And you decision to let Villeneuve race was vindicated at the guy finished ahead of several guys who are meant to be winning the title (true all he had to do was keep turning laps but he showed he can handle himself on the big tracks.

Now on the main post.

Way to go Toyota! Blaney's 3rd place finish seems to have slid under the radar under amongst all the Hendrick/chase hoo-hah. 

 We all thought the 6 cars you had up the front of the qualifying order was a fluke - or simply because they had the single lap speed but not the long run speed. And we might have been right. But....

Waltrip, Vickers, Reutimann and Blaney's running up front all day showed that it wasn't all artificial, and only wrecks and tyres prevented 4 'Yotas in the top 15 or so.

It looks like the Camry teams may finally have a handle on their chassis, and they seem to still be improving. A video on NASCAR.com has an interview from Vickers saying that they've improved in the last few weeks and should continue (it's the video of Jacques' quali laps if you want to find the exact quote). It seems that they may be heading for Craftsmen dominance rather that F1 also ran status.

It seems that Gibbs may have made a wiser choice than was first thought. If Chevy want to use their newer engines (the one's that keep grenading beneath RCR and DEI drivers) in all its teams then a sophomore year Camry set up, with guarenteed starts for 6 races may be more reliable.

How long is it before a Camry can?