Stats can be very misleading sometimes, so I'm just gonna hit you with some quicks thoughts from what I saw, not what I read in a box score, from the first big night of the 2006-07 NBA season
-Chris Paul wil be the best point guard in the League by season's end
-Dwight Howard is a younger, meaner David Robinson
-I hope Kobe's paying attention to what "the others" are doing
-It was good to see Grant Hill actually look healthy against the Bulls
-Sam Cassell looks comfortable coming off the bench for the first time in almost a decade
WOW! That's all I can say after those two games last night.
The Bulls beat the Heat, 108-66, in the worst loss every for a defending champion. Almost made the ring ceremony a moot point, huh?
I had no idea Chicago would come out like that. Hinrich showed how much playing with the best in the League at the World Championships improved his game. He won't shoot like that all season, but his 26-point performance gets him off to a nice start. The Bulls ran and played with energy for a full 48 and made Miami look, well, old. Dwyane Wade, the youngest guy in the Heat rotation, was the only Miami player who looked like he wanted to be out there. Shaq looked awful in his 24 minutes of action. You'd think that, after an entire summer off, he would have come out with some zeal. Gary Payton looked slow and was killed repeated by Hinrich and Chris Duhon-20 points off the bench, inclduing 3-3 from three-point land. Ben Wallace looked solid in his Bulls' debut, pulling down 11 boards and converting his only free throw attempt. Yes, it's only the first game and Miami is supposedly built for the playoffs, but if they can't put in a good effort against a team like Chicago, visions of back-to-back titles will fade quickly.
How about them Lakers!!!
It was announced shortly before tip that Kobe was going to sit out the game and he may miss the first week of action, too. L.A. subsequently came out and gave up 41 to Phoenix in the first quarter. The Lakers gave up just 65 the rest of the way, on their way to a 114-106 win, and got a superb showing from Lamar Odom-34, 13, 6, 3 steals-and a career game from second-year man Andrew Bynum-18, 9. Maurice Evans and Luke Walton chipped in with 17 and 11 points, respectively, in what could prove to be the best win for the Lakers all season. Phoenix didn't look bad, although Amare Stoudemire didn't do much in his 12 minutes of action. Two-time MVP Steve Nash had 15 and 13 dimes and Leandro Barbosa torched L.A. for 30 off the pine. I say this was an important win for the Lakers because performances like that of Odom and Bynum could have finally shown Kobe that he can trust in his teammates to get the job done and help him out. If he's not too stuborn and pig-headed to see that, the Lake Show could see a lot of air time come the second season.
Here's how I see each division, playoff seedings, and title winners shaking out this season. Keep in mind Commissioner David Stern chose to re-seed the playoffs this season after the Mavs/Spurs second round series.
I know the title of this is corny, but corny works sometimes, so kiss my $ss.
Tonight's the night.
Two playoff rematches kick off the new NBA season as the Heat host the Bulls and the Suns travel to L.A. to take on the Lakers.
Although only four teams are in action tonight, a number of players on each sqaud could win several league awards this season. And three of them have a realistic chance to win the '07 title.
What follows is a list of 2006-07 award winners. I'm not the guy from Crossing Over, but I could see a number of these hunches turning into reality.
I considered a number of candidates for this award-J.R. Smith, Smush Parker and Desagana Diop to name a few. But the three I chose are all being asked to bust out this season. Livingston has replaced vet Sam Cassell in the Clippers starting line-up after Cassell captained a team that was a game away from the West Finals. Darko, thought to be the biggest bust since Sam Bowie, couldn't get off the oak in Motown, but will be asked to form a solid young post combo with manchild Dwight Howard. Chandler was expendible and not dependable in Chicago, now he's expected to keep up with Chris Paul for 82 games. Three guys selected in the top five of their respective draft classes. Three guys who've shown flashes at times are now being asked to show some consistency.
Winner: Milicic
When he left purgatory for the Magic Kingdom, Milicic more than tripled his scoring and rebounding averages. Yea, that only translated to 7.6 and 4.1, respectively over 30 games, but it showed why Pistons exec Joe Dumars saw so much potential in the Serbian. If Darko can up his numbers to, say, 13 and 8 with 2 blocks, couple that with the development of point guard Jameer Nelson, Howard's ability and the (presumed) health of Grant Hill, Orlando could sneak into the eighth spot in the playoffs.
Sixth Man of the Year
Nominees: Sam Cassell, Clippers G; Anthony Johnson, Mavericks G; Matt Harpring, Jazz F
It's rare that three girzzled veterans get considered for this award, but with all the changes to these playoff-bound teams, each of these guys will play important minutes off the bench. This will mark the first time Cassell has come off the bench since his Houston days, which is when he won two rings. He knows he's on his last legs and that Livingston needs to be thrown into the fire to show what he's got, so he'll be a team player, accept his role and thrive in it. Johnson, on his sixth team in 10 seasons, will bring verteran savviness to a Mavericks team that had energetic but young Devin Harris backing up Jason Terry last season. He'll be a tough match-up for some of the smaller guards out West, as he outweighs Harris and Terry by an average of 17.5 pounds. If one of those two gets fatigued or in foul trouble, Johnson can play starter's minutes as he showed in the Pacers first round series against New Jersey. Johnson averaged 40.2 minutes and 20 ppg per game over that six-game series. Harpring has put in 13 points and six boards a night over his eight-year career. He can provide toughness and scoring from both forward positions and he shoots a high percentage (.478 for his career).
Winner: Cassell
I know he is essentially being demoted for a younger, more spry player, but Cassell will still get good minutes and he'll be on the floor, and have the ball, in clutch situations.
I also considered Rajon Rondo and Marcus Williams for this award. Con####uous by his absence is Randy Foye, who everybody was ready to hand the award to following Villanova's run in the NCAA Tournament. Foye played well in summer league games, but fell off once the preseason started. It's fairly simple why I chose two of the three guys I selected. Roye and #### are on bad teams. Portland is young and Pau Gasol's foot injury will hurt Memphis. Roy will be able to showcase his all-around skills (he was the only player in the NCAA to average 20 points, six boards and five assists a night last season). And #### will be able to put the "lazy, disinterested" tag he earned in two years at UCONN behind him. It's funny that people gave him that label simply because he didn't take over games. He didn't have to. That Huskies team was stacked and produced four first round draft picks. #### was the only player in the country to average 15 points, six rebounds, two assists, two steals and 1.5 blocks. You call that lazy? Thomas is an interesting choice because he goes into a situation where his team is ready to win now. He could have ended up on the Knicks, but was selected by Chicago due to the Eddy Curry deal. Thomas wasn't a starter for much of his one and only season at LSU. In 25 minutes a night, he put up 12.3 points, 9.2 boards and 3.1 blocks. Starter stats in bench minutes. Thomas has the ability to #### and displayed a decent mid-range J during the Tigers run to the '06 Final Four. His work ethic will help him crack Scott Skiles' rotation and I think he'll play several minutes alongside Wallace this season to add to the Bulls interior defense.
There's always a guy who comes into the League with something to prove. Memphis won't win much this season, but #### will have the chance to show he can dominate a given game. Plus, how can you not love a guy named Rudy?
Defensive Player of the Year
Nominees: Ben Wallace, Bulls F/C; Ron Artest, Kings F; Kobe Bryant, Lakers G
No Bruce Bowen because age and the new rules will catch up to him this year. No Andrei Kirilenko because, although he could swat a dunk from halfcourt, he's not mentioned in the list of "lockdown defenders." Wallace already has four DPOY trophies, but I think he'll show renewed intensity with his new team and push for a fifth. Artest won the award in 2004 and is consistently talked about as one of the best perimeter defenders in the League. Bryant is the only player on the list who hasn't won the award, but he has made a few all-defensive teams, and is the only player in the League who can dominate on both ends of the floor.
Winner: Bryant
There are some questions about his health following off-season knee surgery, but Kobe has played through injury before. Bryant can affford to sacrifice a few points agme (he averaged 35.4 last season) to put more of an emphasis on locking down the opponents best perimeter player.
Most Valuable Player
Nominees: Bryant; LeBron James, Cavaliers G/F; Dwyane Wade, Heat G
I'll admit: I love Kobe Bryant. He's not a role model or anything like that, even though I did get choked up during that Make-A-Wish segment on SportsCenter this past summer. I think he is the most talented, hardest working player in the game today. No, he's not Michael Jordan. If he'd realize that he could realize his true greatness. I think this will be the season that sinks into his head. James is the posterboy of the League. I love "The LeBron's." He has no ceiling, is a freak of nature and is a cross between Magic and Dominique Wilkins. Again, no Jordan comparison. Jordan was a killer. LeBron's too nice. When he develops a killer instinct, similar to what Kobe has, the League will be his. I never thought a team with Shaquille O'Neal would have someone else listed as an MVP candidate. Until last June. Wade dominated that Finals series. He singlehandedly got Shaq and Riles their fourth and fifth rings, respectively. If he puts more emphasis on defense this year and develops a decent long-range shot, it's O-V-E-R. This is tough, but I'm gonna go with...
Winner: Bryant. Question. It's late in the fourth quarter. Your team is down a point and you have the ball coming out of a TO. Who do you want with the ball? Here's another one. It's late in the game. Your team's up one and the opposition has the ball coming out of a break. Who do you want ON the ball? Same guy for both answers, huh?
This time tomorrow, Ben Wallace will be battling Shaq for post position for the first time since late May. Ben Gordon will have taken 20 shots and Dwyane Wade will have taken 648 free throws.
Yes, the new NBA season kicks off tomorrow night. Before the first tip, here are the ten teams I believe have the best shot to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy next June.
10. Houston Rockets: The Rockets could go from Lottery to late May if everything goes according to plan: Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming play more than 65 games apiece, Shane Battier gives his trademark hardnosed effort, Bonzi Wells takes his meds. You know Jeff Van Gundy will have these guys playing tough D every night. And, if healthy, Houston will almost certainly improve on its 90.1 ppg average from last season. T-Mac can get a third of that alone. Watch out for rookie Steve Novak, too. The 6'10" Marquette product displayed his range all preseason long. Look for him to hit a couple clutch threes for H-Town this season.
9. New Jersey Nets: For some reason, I still think this is too high for Jersey. I know they played Miami tough even though they lost the series in five games, but I'm just not sold on them. Jason Kidd is a year older. Vince Carter is, well, Vince Carter. And I don't believe in their front line past Nenad Krstic. Jersey's perimeter trio of Kidd, Carter and Richard Jefferson will make them one of the League's more exciting teams, of course. And rookie Marcus Williams has the potential to make 21 GMs wish they selected him...just as long as he stays out of any computer labs he comes across. Krstic is the key here. If he builds on his '06 numbers-13.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg, potential double teams could free up Jefferson and Carter to run wild and Jersey could go deep into the '07 playoffs.
8. Cleveland Cavaliers: This is a lot of people's sexy pick to make it out of the East. I don't see it. Dan Gilbert (a Spartan!!!) paid $23 million for three years to forward Drew Gooden, who averaged 10.7 points and 8.4 boards in 05-06. That's $8 mil a year to a guy who played 27.5 minutes a night and had PT taken from him by a guy who looks like Sideshow Bob. Outside of a couple draft picks (Shannon Brown and Daniel Gibson), and singing tge aging David Wesley, Cleveland's roster is the same as the group who played admirably before losing to Detroit in seven games in the east semis. Yes, Larry Hughes will be healthy, but I don't think he's the right guy to play Pippen to LeBron's MJ. If a young Washington team wouldn't re-sign him, what does that tell you? Speaking of LeBron, he can only get better. He has no ceiling. Everybody knows that. He also doesn't have much help at The Q. Brooklyn's calling his name.
7. Chicago Bulls: Former Bull John Paxson made the biggest signing of the summer when he stole Ben Wallace from the Pistons for $60 million over four years. That deal just adds another piece to an already stout defensive squad that held opponents to a league-low 42.5 percent shooting from the floor. Eddy Curry-remember him-has already been forgotten, and Wallace will help Bulls fans forget the underachieving Tyson Chandler, too. As long as they stay together, Chicago is set on the perimeter for at least the next decade. Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon anchor a group that includes Chris Duhon, Luol Deng and pitbull Andres Nocioni. That group combined for 70 percent of the Bulls 97.8 ppg last season. That's where the problem lies. Chicago has to get some scoring from the post positions. Yes, Wallace and cagey vet P.J. Brown are tough, but they only combined for 16.3 points per game last season. I know scoring isn't why those two were signed, but the wing quintet is sure to have some off nights. Does Scott Skiles roll with his veteran 4 and 5, or does he insert number two pick Tyrus Thomas and Mike Sweetney to provide some scoring punch? Oh, and what does Skiles do when Ben has a 3-25 stretch from the charity stripe?
6: Los Angeles Clippers: L.A.'s other team is STACKED. Never thought I'd ever say that. When two-time champion Sam Cassell is coming off the bench, you know you have a squad. Elton Brand and Chris Kaman anchor what I think is the best post combo in the League-36.6 ppg, 19.6 rpg combined in 05-06. Elgin Baylor drafted big man Paul Davis out of Michigan State, who I think could develop into a solid post player. Baylor also added some depth with the signing of Tim Thomas. Corey Maggette should see more than 32 games this season, and will regain his starting spot from Quinton Ross. The wildcard for the Clip Show is newly-dubbed starting point man Shaun Livingston. Livingston. The 6'7" third year guard recently had a lot of weight put on his shoulders, and hell need to quickly improve on his game management skills. If he can show why he was drafted fourth overall in 2004, he could lead the Clippers to places no one ever thought they'd go.
5. San Antonio Spurs: I could get a lot of flack for having the Spurs this low. They were a foul call and a heroic Dirk Nowitzki performance from the West finals, and who knows what could have happened had they gotten past Dallas? Yes, the core remains in Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan, but the rest of the roster is unproven, suspect, and old. The meat of Gregg Popovich's bench-Mike Finley, Brent Barry and Robert Horry-averages 34 years of age. Beno Udrih regained his spot as back-up point guard after he couldn't get off the pine in the playoffs, and post monsters Fabricio Oberto. Francisco Elson and Jackie Butler will man the middle for San Antonio. Those three venerable big men have a combined career average of 3.6 ppg and 3 rpg a game. Parker is emerging as a elite point guard and Duncan is the best power forward of all time. I'm just not sure how much they can get out of the rest of the parts. The Spurs are still better than 90 percent of the League, though, so you know they'll be around come late spring.
4. Detroit Pistons: Plain got beat by Miami last spring. I know everyone in the organization harped on the starters playing a boatload of minutes throughout the playoffs, but Miami was just the better team. You could argue that the Heat could have been going for back to back titles had Wade and Shaq been healthy for the '05 conference finals. Still, Detroit still has arguably the best starting five in the League even without Ben Wallace. No, Nazr Mohammed won't sell afro wigs and jerseys; and he won't have a "GONG" noise played whenever he blocks a shot or catches an oop, but he will give the Pistons a viable fifth option on offense and Flip Saunders won't have to worry about "Hack a Nazr" at the end of games-.785 FT percentage in 05-06. Backcourt mates Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton will continue to carry the bulk of the offensive load-38.6 ppg in 05-06, but those two will need to defer to the wiry Tayshaun Prince at times. Prince (14.1 points, 4.2 boards last season) is a match-up nightmare at 6'9." He can take smaller guys down low and blow by bigger wing players. Flip Murray-10.3 ppg during the 05-06 season-will add scoring off the bench and give Billups and Hamilton a chance to take a breather at times. Detroit will miss Wallace on the defensive end, and I think they'll employ a lot of zone to make up for that loss. The Pistons won't win 64 games again this season, bu tthey'll be in the championship conversation all year long.
3. Miami Heat: If it ain't broke, you don't fix it. That's essentially what Pat Riley did as no additions or subtractions were made to the core of the Heat's title-winning rotation. Dwyane Wade will continue to be the focal point of the Heat offense and everyone else will continue to know their role. This could be the last go round for a number of players on the Miami roster-Alonzo Mourning, Gary Payton, Antoine Walker....And Shaquille O'Neal. The most dominant center of our era is, sadly, on his last legs. O'Neal had the lowest scoring and rebounding averages of his career last season-20 ppg and 9.2 rpg, respectively. He's averaged just 68 games a season since he won his first title in 2000. It'll be tough, but it'd be nice to see one of the all-time greats go out on top.
2. Phoenix Suns: Let's get this out of the way right now: Steve Nash will not win a third straight MVP award. You could argue he shouldn't have any. Anyway...the Suns and Mike D'Antoni have changed the game. Teams are building their rosters like Phoenix, but not with the same results. The Suns have averaged 58 wins a year since they acquired Nash prior to the 04-05 season. Phoenix even won 54 games last season without Amare Stoudemire. Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa helped pick up the slack, 26.4 ppg combined. But scoring-108.4 ppg-hasn't been the Suns' problem. Stopping opponents from scoring-102.8 ppa-has. In last year's playoffs, where defense usually tightens up, Phoenix surrendered more than 105 points a night over its 20-game run. If they had a stopper, or a coach who put at least a little bit of emphasis on defense, I'd rank Phoenix as the League's best team. But since they don't...
1. Dallas Mavericks: In 2003-04, the Mavericks gave up 100.8 ppg. Two years later, Dallas allowed a shade more than 93 points a game, good for top seven in the League. The Mavs already could score at will. Head coach Avery Johnson stressed defense to his group, which I believe propelled Dallas to its first finals appearance in team history. With Nash, Finley and Nowitzki, Dallas was Phoenix before Phoenix was Phoenix, if that makes sense. Two-thirds of the group is gone and has been replaced with well-rounded players such as Josh Howard and Jason Terry. Nowitzki, however, is the engine that makes the Mavs run. Dirk posted career highs in points per game (26.6), field-goal percentage (.480) and three-point accuracy (.406). Dallas has youth (Maurice Ager, Devean George) and experience (Jerry Stackhouse, Austin Croshere) on its bench. Mark Cuban has three big bodies in Desagana Diop, Erick Dampier and DJ Mbenga that can #### and push with the best of them. If they don't have a hangover after a Finals loss where they were up 2-0, David Stern may have to present Mark Cuban with the Larry O'Brien trophy. Then Stern's head will explode.
My name is Jason Carmel Davis, and I am a graduate of the Michigan State University School of Journalism. Yes, we do go to class in East Lansing, not just to bars and the liquor store.
I'm almost positive I had an SI with me in the womb, checking out Ralph Wiley. He's the main reason I ever decided to pursue a career in sportswriting .
I even remember the first highlight I ever saw on SportsCenter. I don't remember who was reading it, but it was Michael Jordan's 63-point game against the Celtics in the Garden in the 86 Playoffs. I've been hooked ever since.
