Most people regarding US Soccer are extremely optimistic (claming the US could possibly win the World Cup this year) or are overly pessimistic, trashing every US move as amateur. I, admittedly, am a huge fan of US Soccer but try to keep myself grounded in reality. I assessed their chances of progressing after the defeat to the Czechs as around 14%. Now that figure stands somewhere around 23%. The dreaded draw in soccer deflates all percentages.

Being a fan, I believe they can win. I'm having a tough time sleeping tonight (case-in-point this blog entry at 3:45 AM EST) and when I do finally fall asleep it will be in my Eddie Johnson #9 USA jersey and my Liverpool beanie… Don’t ask, but somehow this ridiculous ritual makes sense to me. Maybe some of the Cardiff/Istanbul magic wears off on us.

But back to reality...
Steven Gerrard is from Merseyside, I am from Seattle, and right now most of you are confused.

Mayhem has broken out in Group E. Each now team has the ability to decide it’s own fate going into the final set of games. The toughest challenge is for the US who are four goals from
guaranteeing themselves a place in the knockout round.

Well it’s proven that anybody can play with anybody in this group. Group E is now officially the 'Group of Death'. S&M decided that by turning over for Argentina yesterday but today’s Ghana win and US tie now put the entire group within 3 points. Italy should take a weakened Czech squad to the cleaners (even though they only have to play for a tie) on Saturday, paving the way for Ghana and USA to decide who goes through. The beauty here is that both games are being played at the same time so don’t expect any team in the group to let up.

Here are the scenarios to Guarantee Group play:

- Ghana (magic number: 2)
Need to win by 2 goals to guarantee group play. A tie could see them through with an Italy win.

- Italy (magic number: 0)
Need to tie to guarantee group play. A loss could eliminate them if the US win and make up the goal difference, or Ghana tie and make up goal difference.

- Czech Republic (magic number: 1)
Need to win to guarantee group play. A tie could see them through if Ghana doesn’t win and the US fail to make up the goal difference.

- United States (magic number: 4)
Need to win by 4 goals to guarantee group play. A Czech republic tie could send them home on goal difference.

Again, a US win may be enough to get them into the next round as an Italian win is a likely result facing a deflated and demoralized Czech squad. Confidence is there for Italy who defeated Ghana by two. Ghana, today, blasted the Czechs by two goals making it a 4 goal relatable comparison in favor of the Azzurri.

The US will pretty much have no chance ahead of their game with Italy if Ghana fails to beat the Czechs three hours earlier. A win for the Czechs would practically put them through to the knockout stages and give them no motivation to defeat Italy in their third game. Giving the Azzurri an un-motivated Czech side to face would spell doom and would likely send the US home early. Even with two US victories, they would most likely lose on goal difference to Italy and the Czech Republic (who would also have two victories). That being said, here’s why the Czechs could still lose to Ghana:

- No Koller or Baros: With a minimal strike force the Czechs attack will be hindered.

- Yellow Cards: The Czechs racked up four yellow cards against the US. Grygera, Rosicky, Lokvenc and Rozehnal are all going to be avoiding aggressive play or face having to watch their match against Italy from the sidelines.

- Eissen: The US midfield parted like the Red Sea for the Czechs and coughed up 2 goals. With “the Bison” in the center of the park, I doubt the Czechs will get much time or space to create long shots versus Ghana.

- Kuffour is not Eddie Pope: The Czechs were given a commanding lead four minutes into the game thanks to Eddie Pope (Who played defense more like the late Pope John Paul II). Samuel Kuffour and the Ghana defense were able to hold Italy off for 40 minutes. Case-in-point is that the Czech Republic will be forced to actually play.

Now all that’s left if Ghana wins is for the US to defeat three time World Cup champions, Italy. An unlikely best-case scenario? Yes, but the situation is not as bad as we’ve been given the impression of from the press. The drastic loss is a good motivator for the US and will also shake things up in the locker-room (for the better). Arena, now, can play his in-form players rather than the most seasoned ones. Dempsey, Johnson, O’Brian and Bocanegra hopefully will get some action. Arena will most likely end the sad zonal coverage that failed versus Czech Republic and go for man on man. Added up, here is where the US stands:

14% chance of the US advancing to the knockout round

3% chance the US still wins the group