Out of 18 red cards handed out in the group stage only one red card was given to a team from Western Europe from which there are 9 teams. That lone red card was the blatant elbow dealt to Brian McBride. Compare that to the 17 others handed out to the rest of the footballing world. 8 of the 17 reds handed out were during matches against Western European teams to their opponents. When an area of the world makes up roughly a third of the teams at the World Cup but only receives one expulsion over the course of 27 group matches and so many other cards are handed out, something needs to be corrected.
Even more speculative is the fact that all nine of the teams in the world cup from Western Europe made it through to the knockout rounds. This is the most amount of teams in World Cup history from Western Europe ever in the round of 16.
Western Europe (France, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, England, Spain, Portugal, Sweeden, Italy)
Teams: 9
Reds: 1
Yellows: 60
Most people regarding US Soccer are extremely optimistic (claming the US could possibly win the World Cup this year) or are overly pessimistic, trashing every US move as amateur. I, admittedly, am a huge fan of US Soccer but try to keep myself grounded in reality. I assessed their chances of progressing after the defeat to the Czechs as around 14%. Now that figure stands somewhere around 23%. The dreaded draw in soccer deflates all percentages.
Being a fan, I believe they can win. I'm having a tough time sleeping tonight (case-in-point this blog entry at 3:45 AM EST) and when I do finally fall asleep it will be in my Eddie Johnson #9 USA jersey and my Liverpool beanie… Don’t ask, but somehow this ridiculous ritual makes sense to me. Maybe some of the Cardiff/Istanbul magic wears off on us.
But back to reality...
Steven Gerrard is from Merseyside, I am from Seattle, and right now most of you are confused.
Mayhem has broken out in Group E. Each now team has the ability to decide it’s own fate going into the final set of games. The toughest challenge is for the US who are four goals from
guaranteeing themselves a place in the knockout round.
Well it’s proven that anybody can play with anybody in this group. Group E is now officially the 'Group of Death'. S&M decided that by turning over for Argentina yesterday but today’s Ghana win and US tie now put the entire group within 3 points. Italy should take a weakened Czech squad to the cleaners (even though they only have to play for a tie) on Saturday, paving the way for Ghana and USA to decide who goes through. The beauty here is that both games are being played at the same time so don’t expect any team in the group to let up.
Here are the scenarios to Guarantee Group play:
- Ghana (magic number: 2)
Need to win by 2 goals to guarantee group play. A tie could see them through with an Italy win.
- Italy (magic number: 0)
Need to tie to guarantee group play. A loss could eliminate them if the US win and make up the goal difference, or Ghana tie and make up goal difference.
- Czech Republic (magic number: 1)
Need to win to guarantee group play. A tie could see them through if Ghana doesn’t win and the US fail to make up the goal difference.
- United States (magic number: 4)
Need to win by 4 goals to guarantee group play. A Czech republic tie could send them home on goal difference.
Again, a US win may be enough to get them into the next round as an Italian win is a likely result facing a deflated and demoralized Czech squad. Confidence is there for Italy who defeated Ghana by two. Ghana, today, blasted the Czechs by two goals making it a 4 goal relatable comparison in favor of the Azzurri.
Now that we're through the first set of games we (the right and left sides of my brain) have come to a consensus on the best team made up from the best performers on the pitch so far. “But Andy,” you say, “The first set of games aren’t over yet, Saudi Arabia is still playing Tunisia.” Yeah I know and I don’t really care being that I am sleeping right now. Well, while I’m getting my ‘Z’s, here it is in all its glory:
Defense:
van Bronkhorst - Holland
Marquez – Mexico
Sancho – Trinidad & Tobago
Goalie:
Hislop – Trinidad & Tobago
Spain now look like one of the most cohesive teams in the tournament. They’re the only team with a mid-day game that battled off the heat and weren’t walking the pitch by minute 30. In fact the only time I saw them walking, was when they were four nil up and in extra-time. They also are the only team that has really infiltrated a defense that, like many others, parked the team bus in front of their goal. Rather than rely on outside shooting (Brazil), Spain was able to penetrate numerous times until Ukraine finally cracked. Spain is looking like one of the best teams in the tournament after carving up a Ukrainian team that topped their group in qualifying. Now Spain is looking like a solid contender to win.
This is one of the most well-oiled and unified Spanish squads in a long while. Many people are probably kicking themselves for not choosing them to go further in the tournament --- well not this guy at least. Spain is my choice to win it all. After the first game, it’s not looking like as bad of a decision as many of you would've first assumed.
The US will pretty much have no chance ahead of their game with Italy if Ghana fails to beat the Czechs three hours earlier. A win for the Czechs would practically put them through to the knockout stages and give them no motivation to defeat Italy in their third game. Giving the Azzurri an un-motivated Czech side to face would spell doom and would likely send the US home early. Even with two US victories, they would most likely lose on goal difference to Italy and the Czech Republic (who would also have two victories). That being said, here’s why the Czechs could still lose to Ghana:
- No Koller or Baros: With a minimal strike force the Czechs attack will be hindered.
- Yellow Cards: The Czechs racked up four yellow cards against the US. Grygera, Rosicky, Lokvenc and Rozehnal are all going to be avoiding aggressive play or face having to watch their match against Italy from the sidelines.
- Eissen: The US midfield parted like the Red Sea for the Czechs and coughed up 2 goals. With “the Bison” in the center of the park, I doubt the Czechs will get much time or space to create long shots versus Ghana.
- Kuffour is not Eddie Pope: The Czechs were given a commanding lead four minutes into the game thanks to Eddie Pope (Who played defense more like the late Pope John Paul II). Samuel Kuffour and the Ghana defense were able to hold Italy off for 40 minutes. Case-in-point is that the Czech Republic will be forced to actually play.
Now all that’s left if Ghana wins is for the US to defeat three time World Cup champions, Italy. An unlikely best-case scenario? Yes, but the situation is not as bad as we’ve been given the impression of from the press. The drastic loss is a good motivator for the US and will also shake things up in the locker-room (for the better). Arena, now, can play his in-form players rather than the most seasoned ones. Dempsey, Johnson, O’Brian and Bocanegra hopefully will get some action. Arena will most likely end the sad zonal coverage that failed versus Czech Republic and go for man on man. Added up, here is where the US stands:
14% chance of the US advancing to the knockout round
No, not the Miami Heat, the German summer heat. European players have been slogging all over the pitch in the hot summer weather, especially those from the Premiership. The England team on Saturday is probably the clearest example, although Australia’s Premier League players today were walking it up the pitch late in the game as well. I think this might play into the advantage of the US and specifically MLS players conditioned to play through hot summers.
Today will be a good test of this with the exclusively European based Czechs taking on the State’s mix of MLS and European players. If Nedved and Baros are still sporting their shaggy haircuts it may even take even more of a toll on them.
I could see this leading to an uncharacteristically late US victory or equalizer.
Update: I didn't realize that the US vs. Czech game was in Gelsenkirchen in the cooled, and basicially domed stadium. America's loss (literally).
So who is going to win? Good question. I wish I knew but alas all I can do is stand idly by and make potentially aimless predictions (because they are never aimless if I’m right). Favorites of course include Brazil, Argentina, England, Holland, Spain, France, Italy and host Germany. Outside shots of having a run are Mexico, US, Czech Republic, Ivory Coast, Portugal and Sweden. Mexico and Czech Republic having the most likely chance of winning the final game if they get there.
Brazil of course is almost everybody’s popular pick to win, so the first question is not who is second best, but who can dethrone them. Only three teams, Argentina, Ecuador and Mexico, have any recent experience competitively beating Brazil. If you really want to dig deep: Norway and France in ’98, or deeper Honduras in Copa América 2001. Basically there’s not much to find in the history of un-doing Brazil other than loses are few and far between and most of the teams speak Spanish… which incidentally leads to my choice to win it all: Spain, and no, it’s not for that reason.
Spain’s prospective route to the trophy would go through South Korea, Brazil, England, and then a final versus France, Holland, Argentina or Germany. Although this is all very speculative, the one sure outcome is that opposition will be tough past the group stage. The reason I chose Spain is that they have a strong technical style, depth and the fact that Spain is hot right now; Spanish clubs won the double in European competitions this year not to mention Liverpool’s very Spaniard influenced title in 2005. The two victories give Spain’s fans and team a very ripe winning attitude, and also gives the country a unity which has been lacking in the past.
Sans Xavi, Spain’s biggest asset however may not be in their starting line-up. With scoring down, and Adidas’s new oblong ball in play, shoot-outs are going to be a likely outcome for teams in the knock-out round. Enter: Pepe Reina. Conserving a late sub and subplanting Reina for Casillas in extra time could be the key to an important win in a close game. Renia is the best penalty stopper in the world, and after being sent out in 2002 by PKs, Spain could use Pepe to vanquish any fear of a repeat.
Now Spain does have weaknesses that Aragones needs to avoid (along with opening his mouth). The first is playing Reyes. Plain and simple, he doesn’t fit. Reyes is more of a crapshoot when it comes to scoring. One minute he could make a miraculous breakthrough and slot in a beauty, the next he could sky it over the net from a yard out. With Raul and Torres to choose from, hopefully Reyes wont see the light of day (unless they needlessly drop him back in the midfield again).
If they win their respective groups and their round of 16s, Spain and Brazil will meet in the semis. Torres and Raul may not be Adriano and Ronaldo, but Spain’s midfield has the tools to beat any team. The wild card subs Fabregas and Garcia could bust open scoreless matches. Add that on top of that fact that Cafu, Carlos and the aging Brazilian defenders are going to be sucking air in the second half of matches and later into the tournament. Look for Cincinho to start getting more and more time as the tournament progresses or when one of mainstays finally collapses on the pitch.
England also have the tools to win, but a lack of confidence and Sven sucking the life out of the team will probably lead to a loss against tough opposition. Italy also have a chance, but seeing how most of the players don’t know where they will be playing in August, their mindset is also skewed. Argentina and Holland, the other favorites, seem to be lacking a definitive playmaker. Realistically, Spain only has a fraction of a chance to win, but other than maybe France in the finals, they are the only team I can see nicking Brazil.
I like soccer. I watch a lot of soccer. Sometimes I play soccer and it's a sad site.
I pretty much exclusively support Liverpool after being deserted by the MLS (see: San Jose Clash… I mean Earthquakes… I mean Houston 1836? errr… Dynamo, whatever). I’ve been following the game since 1995, and in-depth since about 2002. I’m currently a senior in college at Arizona and catch Sounders games over the summer in Seattle. So yup, that’s about it.
