Most people regarding US Soccer are extremely optimistic (claming the US could possibly win the World Cup this year) or are overly pessimistic, trashing every US move as amateur. I, admittedly, am a huge fan of US Soccer but try to keep myself grounded in reality. I assessed their chances of progressing after the defeat to the Czechs as around 14%. Now that figure stands somewhere around 23%. The dreaded draw in soccer deflates all percentages.

Being a fan, I believe they can win. I'm having a tough time sleeping tonight (case-in-point this blog entry at 3:45 AM EST) and when I do finally fall asleep it will be in my Eddie Johnson #9 USA jersey and my Liverpool beanie… Don’t ask, but somehow this ridiculous ritual makes sense to me. Maybe some of the Cardiff/Istanbul magic wears off on us.

But back to reality...
Steven Gerrard is from Merseyside, I am from Seattle, and right now most of you are confused.

If you have been visiting most World Cup websites (like this one) you probably have noticed the Nike & US Soccer “Don’t Tread On Me” campaign. The web banner features a snake curled around a ball that menacingly warns others to “Beware” and has a countdown clock numbering the days/hours/minutes until “US Soccer Attacks”. Problem is the clock is sitting at 00:00:00 and the US still hasn’t attacked.

The consensus is that the clock needs to be reset, the question is should they put 60 minutes up on the clock counting down the remaining time until US v. Italy, or add four more years until South Africa 2010?

Nike clearly wishes they were more influential with Bruce Arena's line-up, seeing their poster boy Eddie Johnson relegated to the bench the first half of the Czech game. Even worse, budding rap-star Dempsey hasn’t seen any minutes yet and golden child Freddy Adu is stuck back home playing for the MLS in the mausoleum known as RFK. In this case a Nike-centric starting line-up couldn’t be worse than what we saw on Monday.

How much does a brand affect play on the field? Obviously not that much. But I did some addition and like the manufactures points in Formula-1, here are the team by team, brand by brand results.



Marathon
G:2 W:2 L:0 D:0 P:6 Average:3.00

Nike
G:11 W:8 L:2 D:1 P:25 Average:2.73

Umbro
G:4 W:3: L:0 D:1 P:10 Average:2.50

Adidas
G:9 W:5 L:2 D:2 P:17 Average:1.89

Puma
G:17 W:2 L:11 D:4 P:10 Average:0.59

Joma
G:2 W:0 L:2 D:0 P:0 Average:0.00

Lotto
G:3 W:0 L:3 D:0 P:0 Average:0.00

updated through today's Portugal v. Iran game



Clearly these stats are warped due to the fact that Ecuador, the only team sporting the Marathon brand, hasn’t faced any real opposition and Puma will make jerseys for any third-world country. Not much to take into account, just some interesting stats I thought I would blog for your enjoyment.

The US will pretty much have no chance ahead of their game with Italy if Ghana fails to beat the Czechs three hours earlier. A win for the Czechs would practically put them through to the knockout stages and give them no motivation to defeat Italy in their third game. Giving the Azzurri an un-motivated Czech side to face would spell doom and would likely send the US home early. Even with two US victories, they would most likely lose on goal difference to Italy and the Czech Republic (who would also have two victories). That being said, here’s why the Czechs could still lose to Ghana:

- No Koller or Baros: With a minimal strike force the Czechs attack will be hindered.

- Yellow Cards: The Czechs racked up four yellow cards against the US. Grygera, Rosicky, Lokvenc and Rozehnal are all going to be avoiding aggressive play or face having to watch their match against Italy from the sidelines.

- Eissen: The US midfield parted like the Red Sea for the Czechs and coughed up 2 goals. With “the Bison” in the center of the park, I doubt the Czechs will get much time or space to create long shots versus Ghana.

- Kuffour is not Eddie Pope: The Czechs were given a commanding lead four minutes into the game thanks to Eddie Pope (Who played defense more like the late Pope John Paul II). Samuel Kuffour and the Ghana defense were able to hold Italy off for 40 minutes. Case-in-point is that the Czech Republic will be forced to actually play.

Now all that’s left if Ghana wins is for the US to defeat three time World Cup champions, Italy. An unlikely best-case scenario? Yes, but the situation is not as bad as we’ve been given the impression of from the press. The drastic loss is a good motivator for the US and will also shake things up in the locker-room (for the better). Arena, now, can play his in-form players rather than the most seasoned ones. Dempsey, Johnson, O’Brian and Bocanegra hopefully will get some action. Arena will most likely end the sad zonal coverage that failed versus Czech Republic and go for man on man. Added up, here is where the US stands:

14% chance of the US advancing to the knockout round

3% chance the US still wins the group