So who is going to win? Good question. I wish I knew but alas all I can do is stand idly by and make potentially aimless predictions (because they are never aimless if I’m right). Favorites of course include Brazil, Argentina, England, Holland, Spain, France, Italy and host Germany. Outside shots of having a run are Mexico, US, Czech Republic, Ivory Coast, Portugal and Sweden. Mexico and Czech Republic having the most likely chance of winning the final game if they get there.

Brazil of course is almost everybody’s popular pick to win, so the first question is not who is second best, but who can dethrone them. Only three teams, Argentina, Ecuador and Mexico, have any recent experience competitively beating Brazil. If you really want to dig deep: Norway and France in ’98, or deeper Honduras in Copa América 2001. Basically there’s not much to find in the history of un-doing Brazil other than loses are few and far between and most of the teams speak Spanish… which incidentally leads to my choice to win it all: Spain, and no, it’s not for that reason.

Spain’s prospective route to the trophy would go through South Korea, Brazil, England, and then a final versus France, Holland, Argentina or Germany. Although this is all very speculative, the one sure outcome is that opposition will be tough past the group stage. The reason I chose Spain is that they have a strong technical style, depth and the fact that Spain is hot right now; Spanish clubs won the double in European competitions this year not to mention Liverpool’s very Spaniard influenced title in 2005. The two victories give Spain’s fans and team a very ripe winning attitude, and also gives the country a unity which has been lacking in the past.

Sans Xavi, Spain’s biggest asset however may not be in their starting line-up. With scoring down, and Adidas’s new oblong ball in play, shoot-outs are going to be a likely outcome for teams in the knock-out round. Enter: Pepe Reina. Conserving a late sub and subplanting Reina for Casillas in extra time could be the key to an important win in a close game. Renia is the best penalty stopper in the world, and after being sent out in 2002 by PKs, Spain could use Pepe to vanquish any fear of a repeat.

Now Spain does have weaknesses that Aragones needs to avoid (along with opening his mouth). The first is playing Reyes. Plain and simple, he doesn’t fit. Reyes is more of a crapshoot when it comes to scoring. One minute he could make a miraculous breakthrough and slot in a beauty, the next he could sky it over the net from a yard out. With Raul and Torres to choose from, hopefully Reyes wont see the light of day (unless they needlessly drop him back in the midfield again).

If they win their respective groups and their round of 16s, Spain and Brazil will meet in the semis. Torres and Raul may not be Adriano and Ronaldo, but Spain’s midfield has the tools to beat any team. The wild card subs Fabregas and Garcia could bust open scoreless matches. Add that on top of that fact that Cafu, Carlos and the aging Brazilian defenders are going to be sucking air in the second half of matches and later into the tournament. Look for Cincinho to start getting more and more time as the tournament progresses or when one of mainstays finally collapses on the pitch.

England also have the tools to win, but a lack of confidence and Sven sucking the life out of the team will probably lead to a loss against tough opposition. Italy also have a chance, but seeing how most of the players don’t know where they will be playing in August, their mindset is also skewed. Argentina and Holland, the other favorites, seem to be lacking a definitive playmaker. Realistically, Spain only has a fraction of a chance to win, but other than maybe France in the finals, they are the only team I can see nicking Brazil.