I see many of the mock drafts showing Matt Ryan to be picked very early in the 1st round--sometimes even 1st overall, but usually never lower than top five--and often with no other QBs taken until second. The more I look at it, and the more I think about this, that seems to be quite an unneccesary risk.

As for the first overall pick, in the past thirty-or-so years I see four QBs that absolutely could not be allowed to slip past the #1 pick: John Elway (1983), Troy Aikman (1989), Peyton Manning (1998), and Michael Vick (2001). Elway was the complete package coming in to the league: born leader and winner, super athelete, and a cannon arm. Aikman didn't have all of the tools of the other three, but he was an excellent QB in an otherwise not-so-great class. Manning was the prototype NFL pocket passer even as a college sophomore--he was a 100%, can't miss, guarantee to be an elite NFL player and futer HOFer. And, despite the current situation which was unforseeable in 2001, Vick was an athlete at QB like never before seen and had all the talent to revolutionize the position. Matt Ryan (or any other QB in the 2008 class, for that matter) does not belong in this group.

But even top 5 seems questionable to me this year:

1. The Dolphins have to address other needs. Plus, they drafted a QB second round last year who didn't look too bad when he played.
2. The Rams don't need a QB, they just need to keep him upright.
3. The Falcons also have many needs. And, (I'll be in the minority in this opinion) the more I watch Joey Harrington play, the more I believe that he's not a bad QB, he's only been cursed with lame teams. In a good situation, I think that Harrington will be a solid QB.
4. The Raiders drafted JaMarcus Russell #1 last year.
5. The Chiefs have QB issues (I'm not sold on Croyle, but he's young enough to prove me wrong) and they may want to draft one, but I wouldn't do it with my 1st pick. They'd get another chance at a QB without spending top-5 money.

I'd even say that 1st round is pushing it this year:

6. The Jets have Clemons and Pennington. Not a threatening duo, but with a young QB who has potential and a veteran who doesn't lose many games, they'll address other areas.
7. The Patriots...do I really have to explain?
8. The Ravens are in a similar situation as the Jets. Smith could turn out to be pretty good. And if McNair will accept a backup/mentor role, he could have a couple more years as a quality role player.
9. The Bengals are set at QB.
10. The Saints are also set.
11. The Bills will continue with Edwards, who played surprisingly well for a rookie.
12. The Broncos look good with Cutler for the next decade.
13. The Panthers have their starter, when he's healthy. They won't use a 1st round pick for a back-up.
14. The Bears do need to look at QB. But that might actually not be their biggest need on offense. Grossman can play...sometimes. The Bears haven't given up on him. They'll go HB or OL.
15. The Lions need a QB of the future. But they have Stanton as a developing QB and Kitna as a decent vet, and they won't spend a 1st round on a rookie to get killed by a swiss cheese OL.
16. The Cards already have their 1st round QB from 2006. And Leinart (even though he's not yet coming along as expected) and Warner are both better than anyone the 2008 class can offer.
17. The Vikes could actually consider a QB. But they'll stick with Jackson's potential.
18-28. The Texans, Eagles, Bucs, Skins, Cowboys, Steelers, Titans, Seahawks, Jags, and Chargers are all set at QB for the forseeable future.
29. The 49ers have other needs than QB. And it might still be a little early to give up on a 2005 1st overall pick.
30. The Packers are now ready for the Aaron Rogers era.
32. The Giants are fine with their SB MVP QB.

Now, here we are in the second round, with QBs still on the board. So, let's just say that you're the Phins, Falcons, Cheifs, or some other team with QB needs, and you decide to pass on a QB in the 1st round. There is still a chance of a full selection come time for your second pick. And if Matt Ryan gets picked up by someone else, you can pick Brian Brohm. Do you really lose anything? Brohm might actually be better.

And if both are gone? There is a bit of a step down from the top two, but with Henne, Woodson, Flacco...do you really lose that much? I don't think so.

Given the situation in 2008, why pay $30 million dollars guaranteed to take a QB in the top five and risk a bust that could hurt your team for years when you could get the same QB (or one close in skills) in the second round for millions less?

Now, I don't really think that the 1st round will pass with no QBs drafted. I just think that if teams look at the QB options in the draft, and then look at the teams picking in the 1st round down the line, addressing other positions in the 1st round might be the smartest way to go.