Seven games, decided by one goal in double overtime. And even then, it could go either way.
Yes, that is the prevailing thought for this year's Stanley Cup Finals between Detroit and Pittsburgh. Through three rounds, the Wings have lost just four games while the Penguins have just two defeats.
Two great teams that would be great teams at any point in the league's history. It is a dream Stanley Cup Finals for the league's marketing types, and a seven game series would only make it better.
Not so quick. History shows us young teams on a roll do not always fare well when playing for hockey's holy grail. Remember the 1983 Edmonton Oilers? They lost just once through the first three rounds, and they were a young team led by superstars such as Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier, and Jari Kurri.
Then they ran into the league's reigning dynasty, the New York Islanders. The Isles may have been considered a bunch of graybeards, but those graybeards swept the youngsters in four games.
The parallels to this series are stunning. Sidney Crosby, annointed as the next Great One, has lived up to the hyperbole. His leadership on and off the ice is remarkable for a 20-year-old. At the media availability day Friday, he spoke like a 25-year veteran.
In other words, he sounded like Chris Chelios.
Just kidding -- but Crosby is a 30-year-old in a 20-year-old's body, and that could present some problems for Detroit. He is not easily rattled on or off the ice, he stays composed yet plays with passion, and he can elude even the best defensemen.
Well, we think the last part is the case. Crosby has not faced Nick Lidstrom, the NHL's best defenseman, for nearly two years. And there is a reason Lidstrom has won enough top defenseman awards to change his first name to Norris.
The "silent assassin" goes about his job more quietly than other high profile defensemen, but few question he is the best. Add Brian Rafalski and Nicklas Kronwall to the defensive corps, and the Wings have the personnel to shut down Pittsburgh.
It will be an interesting battle indeed, as the Penguins have three solid lines. Common sense dictates the Wings would like to get the Pavel Datsyuk-Henrik Zetterberg-Tomas Holmstrom line out against the third or fourth line, but that might not be the case.
For Detroit, their top scoring line is also their best checking line. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are Selke candidates, and it could be argued they are the two best defensive forwards in the league. Don't let their offensive prowess fool you -- these two come to play at both ends of the ice.
Look for Detroit coach Mike Babcock to send the trio out against the Evgeni Malkin line, as the Malkin line is more defensively deficient than the Crosby line or the Jordan Staal line. Puck possession is the name of the game for Zetterberg and Datsyuk, and that alone could neutralize one of Pittsburgh's top two lines.
From Pittsburgh's point of view, it would seem their best matchup is to keep the Crosby and Malkin lines away from Zetterberg and Datsyuk. The Penguins' top two lines also thrive on puck possession, and they would be best served to play against anyone other than the league's best puck possession unit.
On the blueline, the Wings have the edge. Sergei Gonchar, Ryan Whitney, and Hal Gill lead a very competent defensive corps, but the Wings might have the best blueliners in the league -- a point that would likely be argued by Anaheim fans.
In goal, Chris Osgood has been Sogood since taking the starting reins midway through the opening round against Nashville. Osgood has Stanley Cup experience and he never seems to try to do too much.
On the other side, Marc-Andre Fleury has been spectacular, showing why he has been touted as a top-notch prospect for the past several seasons. Maybe it is the new white pads, but Fleury has been a rock for the Penguins in the playoffs.
PREDICTION: It is too easy to say this could go either way (and it could), so there has to be a limb on which to step out. Detroit's experience is invaluable at this time of year, and if the Penguins falter early, this could be a short series. Yet that seems unlikely -- the young Pens simply seem too composed. Stanley Cups will find Pittsburgh in coming years, but this year, look for Detroit to win in six.
I hear this experience arguement about the Wings, and I wonder, does anybody think their age will catch up with them? I don't know if it will, but I don't why anybody hasn't raised that question. The Red Wings are good, but the '83 Islanders they aren't. Other then Denis Potvin who would have been in his 11th season, their main corp was not that old, especially compared to these Wings. It will be a good series, but don't write off the Pens just because they are young. Youth can be served here. This will be the toughest test that either team will face. Another point, the secondary scoring of the Red Wings has really fallen off without Frazen, especially the Cleary line. The Pens have had consistent secondary scoring throughout the playoffs. I am not going to say Zetteburg/Datsyk and Crosby/Malkin will cancel each other out, but somebody is going to have to makes plays outside of those combos for their respective teams. I am not going to give a specific prediction, but I think my Pens can and will win.
Not sure what you've been readin Buckles, but there's a whole parade of people talking about the 'old' Wings getting worn out by the Pens.
However, the Wings aren't as old as everyone seems to think. At least not in practical terms.
Lidstrom may be 38, but he's still the best defenseman in the league, by a good margin. He hasn't had any major injuries in his career, doesn't play an overly physical game, and doesn't rely on speed. No worries that his age will be a factor in his play.
Rafalski is 34, but like Lids, he plays with his head and his stick more than his body. No real worries there either.
Kronwall and Stuart are 27 and 28 respectively, Lebda is 26. All in their prime.
Lilja is 32, not exactly over the hill even in hockey. besides, he's a third pair guy, unlikely to see much of the more dangerous Pitt players.
Chelios may be ancient, and slowed by age, but he may not even paly, and if he does, he still has one of the best heads in the history of the position and is also a third pair player.
At forward, Datsyuk and Zetterberg are in their prime, and as noted in the blog possibly the best defensive forwards in the league. Filppula (whose two-way play is under-rated if anything) is only 24. Cleary (yet another solid two-way guy) just 29. Franzen is 28 with only two years of big league wear on him. Hudler only 24, Helm just 21. Samuelsson, an excellent defender with a dandy slapshot, is hardly a geezer at 31.
Then you have Holmstrom, Draper, Maltby, and McCarty (who probably won't play once Franzen returns) in their mid-thrities and Drake nearin
... and Drake nearing 40. There's some questionable stamina there, especially with Maltby fairly fresh off an injury. But all of them played well in some key minutes against a Dallas team that for some reason isn't getting near the respect they deserve.
Personally, I doubt age (or for that matter, experience [or lack of] for either team) will be a significant factor.
Skill will decide this series. Crosby and Malkin will either force the Wings defense to chase them and break the big red machine down, or Detroit will dominate the puck possession and the Flower will wilt under the onslaught.
This series may be an epic, but I think it will be an epic let-down and one team will dominate. Puck possession teams (as both these are) have an annoying tendancy to be 'all-or-nothing'.
This is what I do at 3:30 in the morning. Post an entirely too long blog response that no one will ever read.
I disagree; Detroit is 'experienced'. In other words they're getting old and it's starting to show. They started tiring in the Dallas series. I think it will be a long series as well; but that favours Pittsburgh's youthfulness. Pen in 6.
I don't beleve it can go eather way. The
only thing we know is the Pens are a far better team then the red wings and they will find out how much a better young the Pens are when the Pens take the rest of the games and show detroit bums that there city is full of worthless people just like there worthless untalented team.
Thanks for the comments! I agree -- part of Detroit's core is up there in age, while the other half or so is a core group that could still be dominating in five years.
It appears so far that experience is defeating youth -- the Penguins need to find a way to open up the game once they are behind instead of clinging to the passive 1-2-2. Without a change, this series could be over by the weekend.
As a life-long hockey fan and sports fan in general, sports has always been a big part of my life. I have combined that with my interest in writing to create a long-term interest in sportswriting , something that has manifested itself in various sportswriting opportunities over the years.
