There was a time, back in the 21-team era, when making first round NHL predictions was relatively easy.
With four of the five teams in three divisions, and four of six in the Patrick Division, qualifying for the playoffs, the difference between teams was significant. This was especially true with the 1 vs 4 matchup, where a 50 or 60 point difference was not uncommon.
As the league has expanded the number of teams but not the number of playoff teams, things have become a lot tougher. Throw in the conference playoff format, and there really is no such thing as a major upset anymore.
This year, it is just a little more difficult than normal. The new rule enforcement standards have led to a solid season for up-tempo teams such as Carolina, Anaheim, Edmonton, and San Jose, but many still question if the standard will be maintained in the playoffs.
More than likely, it will be maintained. Recent comments from Gary Bettman indicate the league is committed to wide-open playoff hockey, and prognosticators must take him at his word.
With that in mind, here are the first round predictions for the Western Conference.
#3 Calgary vs #6 Anaheim
When the two teams were told Edmonton had defeated Colorado, meaning the Ducks and Flames would meet in the first round, Monday's tilt between the two clubs in Anaheim got very interesting.
The game might have been meaningless in the standings, but both teams were out to send a message through physical play. Although the common notion is the Flames will try to push around the Ducks' skill players, Anaheim can more than hold their own when the going gets tough.
If Calgary is successful in knocking around Anaheim stars Teemu Selanne and Andy McDonald, Todd Fedoruk could become a key to this series. The Anaheim enforcer sat out Monday's game with back spasms, but he is healthy and ready to go Friday night. Ducks' coach Randy Carlyle has not hesitated to put Fedoruk on the top line with Selanne and McDonald in physical games, and he could do so again in this series.
The Ducks are not a one-line team, however, and that could be the difference in this series. Rookie Ryan Getzlaf has been scoring at a pace of more than a point per game since the Olympic break, much of which has come on the power play.
If the Flames take penalties, the Ducks could make them pay. Anaheim's power play is 15th in the league at 18.1 percent, but that number increases to 21.5 percent at the Pond. Interestingly, Calgary's penalty kill is seventh at 84.2 percent, but is a mediocre 80.5 percent on the road.
The Flames struggle to score goals, ranking 28th in the 30-team NHL in that category. On the other hand, the Ducks ranked 13th in goals scored. Clearly, Calgary's strength is goaltender Mikka Kiprusoff, the favorite for the Vezina Trophy. Calgary also plays solid team defense, making Kiprusoff's job easier by eliminating second chances.
Jarome Iginla leads the less than potent Flames offense, but even he only tallied 35 goals and 32 assists for 67 points in the regular season. If Iginla struggles, this could be a long series for Calgary.
Prediction: Anaheim's four-line attack will be too much for the Flames over a long series. If Calgary is forced to take penalties, Anaheim's recently potent power play could take over. Ducks in six.
#1 Detroit vs #8 Edmonton
There is a notion among many observers this will be the easiest first round series.
Not so fast.
Sure, Detroit cruised to the President's Trophy with a 58-16-8 record, good for 119 points. Edmonton, on the other hand, slipped into the playoffs with a 41-28-13 record for a total of 95 points.
However, the Red Wings played in the league's weakest division, the Central. A total of 24 games against St. Louis, Chicago, and Columbus certainly made an impact, as the Wings went 25-3-4 in the division. On the other hand, Edmonton plays in the league's toughest division, the Northwest, and posted a 15-15-2 divisional record.
When division records are discarded, the Wings went 33-13-4 against the rest of the league, while Edmonton was 26-13-11. A difference in wins to be sure, but many of Edmonton's losses were shootout losses -- something that will not happen in the playoffs. And the number of losses stands even at 13, yet another indication this might be a closer series than many expect.
Much has been said about Detroit's eight 20-goal scorers, but the Oilers have five 20-goal scorers of their own. The Oilers also have a proven playoff performer in Michael Peca, as well as gritty youngsters such as Raffi Torres and Jarret Stoll.
Prediction: The fast ice in Edmonton seems to favor both teams, but no team is built around that style more than the Oilers. Rexall Place is one of the loudest buildings in the playoffs, while Joe Louis Arena does not get crazy until a round or two later. Put the crowd and the ice together, and the Oilers' advantage in Edmonton should not be underestimated. The youth and speed of the Oilers could wear down the Wings' aging defensive corps if the series drags on. Oilers in seven.
#2 Dallas vs #7 Colorado
In so many ways, this series seems primed for an upset. Colorado has augmented their offensive firepower with veteran character players such as Ian Laperriere and Pierre Turgeon, the defense is solid with Rob Blake and John-Michael Liles, and the goaltending....
Oops. There is the problem -- goaltending. Peter Budaj has been serviceable, but his 2.86 goals against and .900 save percentage will have to improve significantly if he is the go-to guy in the playoffs.
Recently acquired Jose Theodore has been very average in limited time with the Avalanche, and while he will likely regain his form next season, this has been a nightmare year for Theodore.
On the other hand, the Stars counter with Marty Turco, one of the league's top netminders. Turco has been up and down in the playoffs, but his solid play throughout the regular season can not be ignored.
Dallas also boasts a solid core of forwards in Mike Modano, Jere Lehtinen, and Jason Arnott, while the blueline is solid with Sergei Zubov, Philippe Boucher, and Willie Mitchell.
The one thing that could trip up the Stars is the officiating. If the league continues the increased rule enforcement, that could spell trouble for the Stars. Dallas is the sixth-highest penalized team in the league, and they have shown a penchant for hooking and holding penalties at times.
Prediction: If Theodore regains his pre-lockout form, the Avs could actually be considered the favorite. Even if he does not, the Stars could find themselves in trouble if they take too many penalties. Colorado has injury issues with Marek Svatos and Steve Konowalchuk out, but they have more than enough firepower to pull out the upset. Avs in seven.
#4 Nashville at #5 San Jose
It is unusual for a fifth seed to be a heavy favorite against a fourth seed, but that appears to be the case in the West.
Since Joe Thornton arrived in the Bay Area, the Sharks have been one of the league's hottest teams. San Jose moved from ninth to fifth in the season's dying days, and they look to continue that hot streak in the playoffs.
Adding to Nashville's concern is the goaltending situation. Although Chris Mason has filled in admirably for Tomas Vokoun, who is out for the season with a blood disorder, the Preds will miss Vokoun, one of the league's top goaltenders.
On the other hand, San Jose can turn to either Vesa Toskala or Evgeni Nabokov, two elite-level goaltenders, to backstop their potent offense.
If Nashville can find an answer to the combination of Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo, this series could be interesting. However, that is far easier said than done.
Prediction: Thornton and Cheechoo will be too much for the Preds' small defense to handle. Cheechoo likes to park himself at the post to the goalie's right and look for the easy goals. He could find a few of those against Nashville. Sharks in five.
Man, what kind of #### are you smokin and pass some over here. How do you think all of the top seeds are going to lose. The most likely upset is the #5 over #4 since the Sharks have Thorton and Cheechoo.
Just my opinion -- I know a couple of those are not expected from most people by any means. I don't think San Jose over Nashville would be an upset though, when you look at the records since Christmas.
While your arguments are thought out and detailed, I'm struggling a bit with the conclusions, i.e. all upsets out West and all chalks in the East.
Starting with the Wings, Rexall has historically been the best ice surface in the league, but the Oilers struggled MIGHTILY at home throughout the year. Yes, the Wings benefited from playing the likes of St. Louis, Chicago and Columbus 24 times during the year, but to suggest that they lose a game 7 at home in the first round is unreasonable. The Oilers have three things that need to happen to win. Roloson stands on his head, Datysuk misses the series and Edmonton steals two games in Detroit. I don't see that happening.
As for the Stars vs Av's, Theodore played against Dallas earlier in the year in Montreal and beat Dallas 4-1. That said, he has been VERY suspect since he returned from injury, consistently getting beat high to the glove side. As for the Stars penalty minutes, if you checked the numbers, the Stars were near the top of the league in fights. Playoff fights are less common than every higher seed in the playoffs losing, so I'd temper your comments regarding penalty minutes. With Svatos and Konowalchuk, it would have been a more interesting series, but after being embarrassed in 2003-2004 by the Av's, no shot that the Stars take them lightly this go.
Calgary vs Anaheim will be a very interesting series. Calgary has the best blue line in the conference and the best goaltender, but who scores?? Anaheim got hot in March, but definitely cooled a bit in April. Getzlaf, while talented
I agree that Dallas is at the top of the league in fighting majors -- first, if I recall. When I've seen Dallas play this year -- maybe 10 times -- they've also taken a lot of obstruction-type penalties, and gotten away with a lot more in a couple of games, to be honest. Many of those games were against Anaheim, so it seems their strategy against a faster team is to use a bit of the old-style clutch and grab.
I really think the refs will call it tight -- early-season tight -- in the first round. If that doesn't happen, then I'd pick Detroit over Edmonton, Dallas over Colorado, and Calgary over Anaheim. But it's tough to do "what if" predictions -- I'm basing this on how I think the games will be called. And I think it really is that significant this year.
Just to expand on the last thought... Dallas was shorthanded the 11th highest number of times at 504. Nashville, Anaheim, and Calgary were the 3 playoff teams shorthanded more often.
Washington was shorthanded the most at 550, New Jersey the fewest at 348.
I definitely understand the great unknown regarding the officiating and guys like Fraser and McCreary seemed to change from game to game. As a Stars season ticket holder, I would agree that there have been games in which they had a propensity to hook and obstruct, but frequently involved the likes of Niinimaa, who won't see the ice unless there is an injury on the blue line. Dallas has checkers in the Fin Line, and they are very solid positional players. If the Stars average 10+ penalty minutes a game, it could spell doom with the talent of Sakic, Hejduk etc. On the flip side, the Av's penalty kill minus a Konowalchuk hasn't performed at the same level. The series in my mind comes down to goaltending, and Turco has been very good of late.
The Sharks have everyone wetting their pants here in the Bay Area. Then again, they are also the only team that actually makes the playoffs for God's sake! With the Giants, A's, Raiders & 49ers all stewing in lost seasons it is all on them.
They have taken down the mighty Wings (potential round 2 opponent) before in the playoffs so a run is possible.
As a life-long hockey fan and sports fan in general, sports has always been a big part of my life. I have combined that with my interest in writing to create a long-term interest in sportswriting , something that has manifested itself in various sportswriting opportunities over the years.
