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FO Mailbag: Larry Johnson
Jan 23, 2007 | 10:03AM | report this
Warren Margolies:I read your article about the 370 Carry Theory with great interest, since I had been assuming that LJ was going to be my fantasy football keeper for years to come. Since I read the article, I've been debating doing the seemingly unthinkable and keeping Reggie Bush instead of LJ... is this too reactionary?

I normally trust Scott Engel from ESPN.com, who pointed out that LJ didn't become a full-time back until the second half of '05. What is your opinion on Bush vs. LJ for the next few years?

Aaron Schatz: The fact that LJ was not a full time back until the middle of 2005 doesn't matter. Jamal Lewis got cut down by overuse after a single season. What does matter is that fantasy and reality are not the same thing. There is a good chance of LJ having a catastrophic injury, or nagging injuries that cost him games. But there's also a good chance of him slowing down, but still keeping a starting job at 4 yards per carry, with 1,200 yards and a dozen touchdowns. That player would come out as average in the FO stats, a big step down for Larry, but that's still an every-week starting fantasy running back.

And I'm not sure what Bush's future holds, fantasywise. Despite his awesome second half, it's still hard to figure out how Sean Payton will use him going forward. Obviously, he has more value if you play in a points per reception league.

I think I would try to deal LJ for a more standard RB than Bush, but one who has less risk than LJ. Rudi Johnson, perhaps, or Frank Gore. If you think LJ's perceived value is higher than his real value, don't ditch him, flip him.

By the way, the hidden fact in the Patriots win over the Chargers: It prevented LaDainian Tomlinson from entering the danger zone of 390 carries in the playoffs + postseason.

Add a comment   categories: NFL, Football Outsiders, Kansas City Chiefs, Larry Johnson, Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints, fantasy football
 
Fantasy Football Hall of Fame Finalist: Garrison Hearst
Nov 29, 2006 | 5:50AM | report this

All week, we're profiling the semi-finalists for the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame class of 2007. The FFHoF enshrines players whose statistical accomplishments were more impressive than their actual accomplishments. To be eligible, a player must be retired, have made a significant contribution to fantasy football, and have no shot of making the Pro Football Hall of Fame. To find out more or to vote for your favorite players, read this Friday's Too Deep Zone at Football Outsiders or right here on FOX.

If Hearst had avoided injuries, we would be polishing his bust for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

But Hearst couldn't stay healthy. His first two seasons were marred by injuries. He bounced from Arizona to Cincinnati to San Francisco, emerged as a great running back, and promptly tore up his ankle in a playoff game. The injury was so bad that it led to a circulatory problem, and Hearst disappeared for two full seasons.

When he came back in 2001, he was the kind of player you take in the very last round of your fantasy draft: a big name worth a flyer in the unlikely event that he plays. But Hearst did play, rushing for over 1,200 yards and scoring five touchdowns. He scored nine more touchdowns in 2002 for another fine fantasy season.

Hearst was a great player in the regular season, but he rarely played well in the playoffs. He did have a great game against the Packers in 1998, but that was the only postseason game in which he rushed for over 55 yards. And of course, getting hurt so bad on your first carry that you need two years of rehab can officially be classified as a "very bad day."

A great statistical player who didn't play as well in the playoffs? A top talent whose career is full of false starts and strange interruptions? There's only one place that can truly honor such a player: the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame. You can do your part by voting for the finalists at Football Outsiders on Friday. It's your chance to be part of the democratic process.

post by Mike Tanier

Add a comment   categories: Fantasy Football, Football Outsiders, San Francisco 49ers, Garrison Hearst, Arizona Cardinals
 
Fantasy Football Hall of Fame Finalist: Jimmy Smith
Nov 28, 2006 | 6:44AM | report this

All week, we're profiling the semi-finalists for the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame class of 2007. The FFHoF enshrines players whose statistical accomplishments were more impressive than their actual accomplishments. To be eligible, a player must be retired, have made a significant contribution to fantasy football, and have no shot of making the Pro Football Hall of Fame. To find out more or to vote for your favorite players, read this Friday's Too Deep Zone at Football Outsiders or right here on FOX.

What's your favorite Jimmy Smith memory?

His 118 catch season in 2001? That's not a memory – you looked that up. His 15-catch, 291-yard, three-TD performance against the Ravens in 2000? Now we're getting somewhere. Why do you remember it? Because of that game's impact on your fantasy team, of course. Otherwise, you would have no memory of that game unless you are a Ravens or a Jaguars fan.

And we've never actually met a Jaguars fan. But we're sure they are out there.

Some people believe that Smith belongs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. They are the kind of people who see that Smith is high on the all time receptions list and say "with numbers like that, you have no choice but to put him in." We call those people "baseball fans." Smith was a very, very good player. He was probably the best player on those Jaguars teams of the late 1990's and early 2000's. Except for Tony Boselli; that dude rocked. And Fred Taylor when he was healthy. And Mark Brunell in his best years. Yep, Smith was the second, third, or fourth best player on a team that never made the Super Bowl but certainly won a lot of games. And he led the league in receiving … never. He did finish fourth a lot. If they gave out trophies for finishing fourth or fifth in receiving yards, Smith's mantle would be full.

We've come not to bury Smith, but to praise him. Of course he's not a Canton Hall of Famer. But the guy is a shoo-in for the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame. He compiled tons of stats and led team after team to fantasy championships. His legacy lives on in that Sopranos DVD you bought with the money you earned from your second place fantasy finish in 2002, the money that Smith helped you earn.

All Smith needs now is your vote. Balloting begins on Friday at Football Outsiders for the FFHoF. Come out and cast a ballot, because those who don't vote don't have a right to complain.

post by Mike Tanier

1 Comment | Add a comment   categories: Football Outsiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Fantasy Football, Jimmy Smith
 
Fantasy Football Hall of Fame Finalist: Eddie George
Nov 27, 2006 | 6:24PM | report this

All week, we're profiling the semi-finalists for the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame class of 2007. The FFHoF enshrines players whose statistical accomplishments were more impressive than their actual accomplishments. To be eligible, a player must be retired, have made a significant contribution to fantasy football, and have no shot of making the Pro Football Hall of Fame. To find out more or to vote for your favorite players, read this Friday's Too Deep Zone at Football Outsiders and right here on FOX.

If biceps won championships, then Eddie George's Titans would have won Super Bowl XXXIV and maybe another Super Bowl as well. George's biceps were like steel cables wrapped around titanium rods wrapped king cobras. When he folded his arms, it created a sonic boom.

George was a very good running back, arguably a great one, from 1996 through 2000. He was a tough, durable runner who could also catch the ball. He never missed a game. His yards-per-carry were always a little low, but he did run the ball a lot late in the game when the Titans were salting opponents away.

All of the mileage caught up to George in 2001, when his average dipped to 3.0 yards per carry. But the Titans refused to accept the fact that their matinee idol running back was on the decline. So they kept handing the ball to him. He averaged 3.3 yards per carry for the rest of his career, but the Titans gave him 650 more carries in two seasons to prove that he was finished. And because he was still a pretty good short yardage runner, he kept racking up the touchdowns. In short, George the possible Pro Football Hall of Famer became George the Likely First Ball Fantasy Football Hall of Famer.

But he cannot reach the FFHoF without your help. George leads this year's class of semi-finalists, but he faces some tough competition. If you want to see a bronze bust of George hanging beside such great fantasy running backs as Chris Warren and Terry Allen, you have to make your voice heard on Friday. Read Too Deep Zone, then make your voice heard!

post by Mike Tanier

Add a comment   categories: Tennessee Titans, Eddie George, Football Outsiders, Fantasy Football
 
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Football Outsiders is the Internet's #1 home for intelligent NFL analysis. Our NFL articles for FOX include Quick Reads, DVOA ratings, Too Deep Zone, the Wednesday rundown, and many others.
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