Denver's recent trade of Tatum Bell and George Foster for Dre' Bly was just one more example in a long history of discarded Denver running backs. Since Olandis Gary turned in a 1,000-yard season subbing for Terrell Davis in 1999, the Broncos have not had a running back lead the team in rushes for more than two straight seasons.  Five different Denver backs -- Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Reuben Droughns, and Bell -- have put up 1,000-yard seasons in that time.

The Broncos clearly realized years before other teams that running backs are often just a product of the system.  The Colts just won the Super Bowl after letting Edgerrin James leave in free agency. Shaun Alexander struggled just one season after winning the MVP due to his own injuries and offensive line struggles.  The simple truth is that is that more than 30 running backs could run for over 1,000 yards behind a solid offensive line.  The Broncos’ realization of this fact has saved them cap space and allowed them to acquire the best pair of corners in football.  (Champ Bailey came in a previous trade for Clinton Portis.)

All of the above is true, but the next logical step after "running backs are fungible" is "all running backs are created equal." But this is not necessarily the case.  Six different running backs have led the Broncos in rushing the past eight seasons, but they have been far from equal. Here is a look at how each one did in our Football Outsiders advanced stats of DPAR (which measures total value) and DVOA (which measures value per play):

• 1999: Gary 18.7 DPAR, 0.5% DVOA
• 2000: Anderson 28.4 DPAR, 9.5% DVOA
• 2001: Davis 9.3 DPAR, -3.1% DVOA
• 2002: Portis 45.2 DPAR, 23.1% DVOA
• 2003: Portis 37.0 DPAR, 15.3% DVOA
• 2004: Droughns 16.4 DPAR, -0.8% DVOA
• 2005: Anderson 27.0 DPAR, 20.3% DVOA
• 2006: T.Bell 11.0 DPAR -2.1% DVOA

As an aside, Terrell Davis trumps even Portis. He had 59.1 and 65.7 DPAR in 1997 and 1998 respectively, leading the league each year. He also led the league in DVOA in 1998, and was second in 1997, narrowly behind Barry Sanders.

Not surprisingly, given the inconsistent running backs, the Broncos offense has had some wild swings during this period. Despite their sterling reputation, they have had three below average seasons running the football. Here's a look at total offensive DVOA as well as rushing offense for Denver as a team:

• 1999: -5.3% Offense, -0.7% Rushing
• 2000:  19.1% Offense, 14.3% Rushing
• 2001:  -6.2% Offense, -6.5% Rushing
• 2002:  17.0% Offense, 20.4% Rushing
• 2003:  8.6% Offense,  8.1% Rushing
• 2004:  11.3% Offense, 1.6% Rushing
• 2005:  23.4% Offense, 23.0% Rushing
• 2006:  -8.1% Offense, -6.7% Rushing

The Broncos have had two main quarterbacks during this period, Brian Griese and Jake Plummer. The offensive line has not been consistent outside of Tom Nalen, who has anchored the line during this whole period. Nalen is the only Denver offensive lineman who has made the Pro Bowl during this period.

Maybe uncertainty in the line corresponds with the decreases in effectiveness, but I’d argue that perhaps Mike Anderson and Clinton Portis are better players than the other backs. Tatum Bell was more successful in 2005 than last year, but he was still substantially less productive from a DVOA perspective than Anderson was.

I think the Broncos got the better of the trade with Detroit, but at a certain point, the Broncos may be getting too cute. They are consistently above average, but only once in the past four years (2005) did they have a truly outstanding offense. And yet, they continue with the same strategy.

The next 1,000-yard rusher will likely be the recently signed Travis Henry. Denver signed him to a sizable contract, perhaps realizing that not all backs are created equal. The problem is that Henry has proven himself solid, but below average. He has yet to post a positive DVOA in Buffalo or Tennessee despite multiple 1,000-yard seasons. In general, he has always put up high yardage totals simply because teams kept giving him the ball as the starting running back.

This year, Henry will probably rack up another 1,200 yards or more, and everyone will pat Denver on the back for adding another name to the list of seemingly successful backs they have created. It is far from certain, however, that Henry will be more like Portis than Droughns. Anybody can gain yardage in the Denver system, but not just anyone can be a star.

Post by Ned Macey 

Sean Payton will win Coach of the Year this season. There are other great candidates (Marty Schottenheimer, Andy Reid, Eric Mangini), but the award usually goes to the coach who brought his team from nowhere into contention. That description fits Payton to a "T."

But who was the NFL's worst coach this year? There's no clear winner (loser?) but a long list of candidates.

Art Shell would be an obvious choice. Shell made many mistakes this season: hiring his overmatched buddy as offensive coordinator, bungling the Jerry Porter situation, letting Randy Moss get away with murder, and so on. His most grievous error: the Raiders are no further along now than they were last year. It's one thing for a first-year coach to have a bad year, but quire another for him to show no signs of progress.

There are mitigating factors in Shell's case. First, there's the fact that a first-year head coach can only do so much. Then there's the Raiders front office, which is still lost in the 1970s. Finally, there was the brutal division schedule that offered the Raiders few cheesy wins. If they played in the NFC West, the Raiders might be 5-11: bad, but not punchline bad.

The Cardinals are in position to go 5-11 in the NFC West, and their head coach has had three years to install his system. Denny Green has done an awful job in Arizona, and he has flopped at a time when the team's ownership is spending money like crazy to shed the team's loser image. Green hasn't been able to field a competitive offensive line despite free agent acquisitions, draft picks, and staff changes. Look at what Payton has done with the Saints line this season and it's clear that there's no trick to fielding a competent line. Green just hasn't gotten it done. And he didn't earn any style points with that post-game tirade after the loss to the Bears.

The Cardinals were a fashionable playoff pick this year. So were the Redskins; some experts had them heading to the Super Bowl, and we're not just talking about Joe Theismann. It may be sacrilegious to suggest that Joe Gibbs was the worst coach in the league this season, but the Redskins were pretty terrible for a team with a high payroll and a coaching staff filled with living legends. Gibbs is supposed to be a master of finding and developing young players, but the Redskins haven't produced any surprise stars in the last three seasons (Chris Cooley and Ladell Betts were high draft choices, not surprises), and major talents like Sean Taylor and Carlos Rogers don't seem to be developing. Gibbs handled his quarterback situation poorly and seemed unwilling to step in and make changes when it was clear that the Redskins offense was in trouble at the start of camp. It was a lousy coaching effort, and only some of the blame can be pinned on owner Dan Snyder for assembling another all-name, no-game roster.

Gibbs' woes in Washington were overshadowed by Tom Coughlin's bellicose blundering in New York. Beware of sel####escribed disciplinarians. Real disciplinarians use tight organization and clear communication to enforce rules, but would-be drill sergeants like Coughlin just congratulate themselves for shouting the loudest. Most of the Giants tuned Coughlin out last year, but youngsters like Mathias Kiwanuka didn't know better and found themselves on the receiving end of Coughlin's public tantrums. Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey were right when they said that the Giants were outcoached in 2005 and 2006, but the team that executes cleanly and plays hard can overcome an inferior gameplan. Coughlin's Giants couldn't execute, and by the end of this season, none of them even wanted to execute, unless they had the chance to execute Coughlin.

Was Coughlin the worst coach of 2006? I think we can go lower. In my opinion, the worst coaches have two fatal flaws: 1) They are incapable of fixing their team's problems even after a few seasons and a commitment of resources, and 2) They are divisive and create a toxic atmosphere. Coughlin is divisive, but the Giants really haven't had one recurring problem during his tenure. Gibbs hasn't gotten the Redskins to turn the corner, but he creates a professional work environment for his players. Shell couldn't fix the offensive line and didn't exactly build unity by creating a double standard for Moss and Porter, but he's only been at the job one year.

Then there's Jim Mora. He keeps waiting for Michael Vick to mature. He keeps waiting for the run defense to fix itself. Mora and the Falcons invest money in defenders like Ed Hartwell and Lawyer Milloy and high draft picks on wide receivers, but the results are the same year-in and year-out. The Falcons are never terrible, and I might be easier on Mora if he had a reputation as a class act. But Mora is, by most accounts, a jerk. He's a poor communicator to his players who seems incapable of developing them past the "raw talent" level. And his recent "I wanna coach at the college level" wisecracks, spoken while the Falcons were still very alive in the playoff race, demonstrated just how clueless he is.

It's tough to pass on Coughlin and Green, but I believe that Mora was the worst coach in the NFL this year. His dad might have called Vick a coach killer, but Mora has done a pretty good job of hanging himself without Vick's help in the last two seasons. When firing season starts next week, Mora will probably be among the first to get the boot.

post by Mike Tanier

Mike Junt: I was just browsing the defensive Adjusted Line Yards stats and figuring to look up how bad the Alleged Colts Run Defense(tm) is, and then I noticed:

The Colts are ranked number one against runs around left end.

Is that a typo, or are people really running over the entire Colts defense except Dwight Freeney? If that isn't an error, isn't that really noteworthy and worth investigating? If Freeney's really playing that well, considering his bad pash rush statistics this year, that would be a pretty miraculous mirror image of, well, the rest of forever.

Aaron Schatz: Yep, that's pretty crazy. Let's go look into the situation.

This is not a case of Dwight Freeney turning into an amazing run stopper. A run "at" Freeney would probably be listed as left tackle or left guard by the official scorekeepers. Unfortunately, one of the things about Adjusted Line Yards is that we are at the mercy of the official scorekeepers, and we can't know for sure what the real difference is between "left end" and "left tackle" without seeing each run individually. But an "end" run is usually a sweep, a stretch, or a pitch, not a straight ahead run. The other problem is that a backwards pass is technically a run, so a few ends listed as runs are actually screens.

What we have here is a case of small sample size. Through Week 15, there are only 14 recorded runs around left end by running backs against the Colts. That's the lowest of any defense in the league, and the average is 41. I wondered if the issue was the official scorer in Indianapolis -- does the guy just never mark anything as an end run? -- but the Colts rank fourth in left end runs on offense.

Marion Barber had one for 20 yards, but none of the others are over six yards. Four of them are listed as zero yards and three lost yardage. By total chance, two of these runs were by Clinton Portis, on the same drive in Week 7, and it just so happens that I have all the Week 7 games on DVD, so I went and actually looked at the plays. I think they demonstrate why teams don't run left end against the Colts.

Picture the angles in your mind. Dwight Freeney is doing his outside spin move around the left tackle. If you run behind your guard and tackle, he's taken himself out of the play. But if you run a wider run around the end, you are going to run right into Freeney as he's on his way towards your quarterback. That's exactly what happened with Portis. The first play is a pitch left. But Freeney is so far upfield that Portis has to change his angle and try to go even wider. By the time he gets to where he's turning the corner, Gilbert Gardner is right there for a six-yard loss.

On the second play, the pulling guard (R. Thomas) runs right past Freeney, who reaches back to get a hand on Portis, enough to slow him slightly, and then Booger McFarland beats center Casey Rabach, which forces Portis again to take a wider angle, and Cato June takes him down for a loss of one.

The other reason why teams don't run left end on the Colts? Why run left end when going up the middle is so damn easy? The Colts are 24th in Adjusted Line Yards against runs left tackle, 31st middle/guard, and 32nd right tackle.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"Wonderful game called by Terry McAulay's crew so far in Washington. McAulay might want to give Mike Pereira a call regarding the 'ingredients of a hold.' Evidently, the Cowboys do not possess those ingredients."

"The Giants seem to have figured out that Eli shouldn't be allowed to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield without Burress there serving as a backboard."

"The Dallas safety is a perfect example of why teams should go for it on fourth-and-goal from the one-yard line. Even if you don't get it, you pin your opponents deep and you have a good chance of either a safety or forcing a punt from the end zone. "

"Dan Dierdorf just said Rex Grossman will always have the starting job in Chicago 'because he wins.' Wasn't that the exact same reason people gave last year for giving the job to Kyle Orton and keeping Grossman on the bench?" "Haven't you heard? All Damon Huard/David Garrard/Rex Grossman does is win ballgames."

"Larry Johnson is having a field day."

"Tampa Bay's second quarter rally ruined my plans to rake leaves after halftime."

"Are we obliged to argue about Parcells' dcision to go for two early in the game?" "Why argue? Don't we all agree that it was really, really stupid?"

"Tony Romo just threw a bomb to a wide open TO, who had beat the cornerback and safety, and he dropped it. The cornerback, not surprisingly, was Carlos Rogers. The safety wasn't Adam Archuleta because he wasn't even on the field due to his inability to cover anybody."

"There's nothing quite like the reaction in a Philly sports bar after TO drops a pass. Except maybe for the reaction in Indy after Mike Vanderjagt misses a game-winning field goal.

"CBS just broadcast two "g**d**n"s and a "f****n" as Brian Billick stood a little too close to a microphone when he cursed out an official. It's amazing how much more NFL coaches get away with than NBA coaches. "

"It looks like the Browns are going with the "death by a thousand Phil Dawson field goals" game plan against the Chargers."

"Is there any more frightening phrase to Steelers fans than 'Santonio Holmes takes it out of the end zone?'"

"That Hines Ward play was a microcosm of the Steelers season. I mean, how could you come away from that play saying 'Hines Ward sucks and the Steelers suck?' Ward made some amazing moves and I think everyone agrees he's a great player. And yet, here we are."

"That taunting call on Troy Brown proves the ridiculous nature of the NFL. What used to be a fun and visceral sport is now a kangaroo court for the benefit of referees who are directed to act like the old cranky lady in your apartment complex. 'Turn it DOWN, you hooligans!!!'"

"Next team I hear 'Tom Brady's favorite receiver is the one who's open,' I take a hostage.

"Today has been the worst accumulation of dunderheaded calls since the 2005 postseason. The lack of public accountability when it comes to officiating is the NFL's black mark."

"The Patriots didn't run the ball enough, their playcalling got too funky, and they outsmarted themselves."

Read more at FootballOutsiders.com.

post by Mike Tanier

For this week's edition of Too Deep Zone, I broke down game tape of teams that use a lot of two-tight end formations. I focused on the Patriots and Cowboys, but I also analyzed two Redskins games to see how they were using Chris Cooley and Christian "I'll Tumble" Fauria.

I wound up with a splitting headache. All of the Redskins' pre-snap motion had me talking to myself. On a typical play, Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, and Chris Cooley might start out in a wishbone formation in the backfield, with Mike Sellers as a tight end and Antwaan Randle El as a receiver. Then, before anyone drops into his stance, everyone does the Saunders shuffle. Sellers drops back to fullback. Moss splits wide. Cooley moves to tight end. Then, once everyone is set, Cooley goes in motion across the formation. All of this to disguise a Portis sweep. When you are trying to diagram plays on your couch, all of the motion can drive you batty.

Of course, that's what Saunders and the Redskins' League of Extraordinary Gentlemen coaching staff are trying to do: they want opposing coaches and players scratching their heads before each snap. Saunders' 700-page playbook is filled with dozens of formations and motion schemes. Joe Gibbs was an innovator of pre-snap motion in the early 1980s, when most teams just moved one back or receiver before the snap. The old Redskins would perform wild pre-snap shifts that moved their H-backs all over the formation. Confused defenders spent more time pointing, yelling, and revising their assignments then attacking.

Unfortunately, times have changed. The Giants appeared to shrug their shoulders at all of the trickery. They didn't react to the initial Redskins formation. They waited until the offensive line set, then took their positions on the field. If anyone appeared confused, it was the Redskins players themselves. All of them are in their first year under Saunders, and key players like Randle El, Fauria, and Brandon Lloyd are in their first year with the team. Several times, Mark Brunell had to re-set players before the snap or burn a timeout. Against the Titans, the Redskins scaled back a lot of the motion, either because their own players were baffled or the Redskins figured they could beat the Titans with more straight-ahead tactics.

Saunders' scheme was extremely successful in Kansas City and St. Louis. But for years, Chiefs observers noted that all of the excess motion looked like wasted energy. Modern defenses are now trained to adapt to dozens of different offensive formations. Saunders' greatest strength isn't his pre-snap creativity: it's his ability to adapt gameplans to fit his personnel. The Rams beat you deep and the Chiefs ran the ball down your esophagus. The Redskins should be able to do both, assuming that Brunell can still get the ball down the field (he seemed perfectly capable against Jacksonville, but he struggled in the games I examined).

Washington's need to add a dozen free agents every year only compounds the offensive problems. A 700-page playbook is no big deal when your core offensive players have been together for years. Trent Green, Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, Eddie Kennison, and the Chiefs linemen knew the system, and Larry Johnson eventually figured it out. But the Redskins need nametags at the start of camp every year. If you are going to integrate a new second receiver, a new third receiver, and a new tight end, as well as a new coordinator, there are going to be some lapses.

It will be interesting to see how much shifting they do this week. The Colts execute a very vanilla defense. Sellers, Cooley, Moss and Portis could climb onto each other's shoulders and make a pyramid for all Tony Dungy cares; his defense will line up in a Cover-2 shell, with the corners split and the safeties deep, no matter what Saundes throws at him. The best bet for the Redskins will be to run the ball hard and pick their spots with Moss. They should have no problem grinding out yards against the Colts, but they need to focus on execution, not subterfuge.

The Redskins will eventually figure things out. But how long will that take? If the Redskins fall to 2-5, they will be three games behind the NFC East leader and all but out of contention. They may push the button and start Jason Campbell, another inexperienced player who may have a hard time spitting out three different formations in the huddle.

Sometimes, you need to simplify. The Redskins are trying to do too much, too fast. That's what happens when you have an owner who is always trying to win last year.