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Are workhorse RB dying out? Don't be so sure.
Mar 28, 2007 | 8:10AM | report this

Upon hearing that Marshall Faulk officially retired, I was curious to see his place in history. Whenever I want historical information, I start at the excellent website Pro Football Reference. What I found on Faulk was what you would expect, namely he was an amazing player. More interesting was a finding on this page dealing with various leaders in yards from scrimmage. Much to my surprise, Faulk's replacement in St. Louis, Steven Jackson, gained the fifth most yards from scrimmage in history during a single season.

I watch a fair number of Rams games and was well aware that Jackson had a Pro Bowl-caliber season, but I did not realize he was doing anything historic. His total ranked only behind Faulk himself in 1999, Tiki Barber in 2005, LaDainian Tomlinson in 2003, and Barry Sanders in 1997. Not bad company at all.

Looking at those five dates, however, gives immediate pause as to the historical significance of Jackson's efforts. Quite simply, today's NFL places increased pressure on a single running back. Furthermore, the running back is featured in the passing offense at a much higher rate. Of the top 21 yards from scrimmage seasons of all time, 16 have taken place in the last 10 years. Even more amazing, four of the top 21 took place last season. Tomlinson ranks sixth all time, Larry Johnson 19th, and Frank Gore 21st.

What struck me about that total is that this was the year that the NFL was supposedly buying into multiple running backs. The presence of four split-carry situations in the Conference Championship Games led to numerous articles praising this phenomenon. Many at Football Outsiders have been calling for this sort of arrangement for years, in large part to avoid wearing down the primary back. I wanted to believe it was true, but a deeper look shows that radical change is not likely coming.

The copycat NFL was supposed to follow this trend, but two months into the off-season, it appears that the teams in the Conference Championship game themselves are not even following the trend themselves. The Super Bowl Champion Colts let Dominic Rhodes leave in free agency without much of an effort to retain him and with no obvious in-house solution to replace him. The Bears traded Thomas Jones to the Jets for draft picks and have no established back-up to Cedric Benson. The Patriots cut Corey Dillon leaving only Laurence Maroney and third-down back Kevin Faulk. Only New Orleans kept both of their running backs, and there, Reggie Bush's versatility makes it easier to play them both at the same time.

Of course, we could have seen this coming. As recently as 2005, the Colts gave 360 carries to Edgerrin James while the Bears gave Jones 314 in 15 games. The Patriots in 2004 gave Dillon 345 in 15 games. Clearly those coaching staffs were not afraid to ride a workhorse back. All three will have at their disposal young legs to lean on next year and will likely push those backs hard.

Overall last season, 10 running backs had 300 carries compared with 10 in 2005 and nine in 2004. Of the 9 in 2004, five have since missed at least six games in a season due to injury. Admittedly, these numbers are down from the peak of 13 in 2003, but that year was the exception. Nine backs had over 300 carries in both 2001 and 2002.

The failure of teams to adapt appears to be a mistake. The success of the playoff teams can easily be explained by other factors; the teams had three of the game's five best quarterbacks for one. More persuasive is the fact that of the top 10 teams in rushing offense DVOA, only two had a running back with 300 carries, San Diego with Tomlinson and New York with Barber. Of note, their back-ups, Michael Turner and Brandon Jacobs, ranked first and eighth in DVOA (value on a per play basis) indicating that the offensive lines played a large role in each team's overall ranking.

Still, despite the success of these teams who split carries, the workhorse back appears here to stay. As long as that workhorse is also factored in the passing game, the single-season leaderboard for all-purpose yards will remain in constant flux. Jackson may yet suffer the same fate as William Andrews. The former Atlanta Falcon ranked sixth on this list from 1985 to 1997 and now finds himself 22nd.

Hopefully, Jackson does not mimic Andrews in another way. Coming off a 331 carry, 56 catch season in 1983, Jackson blew his knee out in training camp the next season. He gained only 249 yards from scrimmage the rest of his career.

Post by Ned Macey

2 Comments | Add a comment   categories: NFL, Football Outsiders, St Louis Rams, Steven Jackson, Marshall Faulk
 
Eagles Fans Hospitalized; SAOSSD Blamed
Mar 27, 2007 | 9:34AM | report this

Mount Ephraim, NJ -- Insurance adjuster Brad Anderson broke out in a cold sweat while surfing the Internet on Monday afternoon. He felt a tingling in his neck. He feared he was having a heart attack.

"I read on Pro Football Talk that the Eagles were going to trade for a Takeo Spikes," he said. "A linebacker. An actual starting linebacker. Suddenly, I saw spots in front of my eyes." Alertly, he took a glycerine tablet and called 9-1-1. When he arrived at the hospital, he found that he was just one of hundreds of Eagles fans hospitalized by the team's recent spurt of off-season activity. The problem has become so widespread that the Center for Disease Control had dubbed it SAOSSD: Surprisingly Active Off-Season Stress Disorder.

"I've never seen anything like this," said Dr. James Albright of the newly opened Free Agency Trauma Center at Einstein Medical Center. "Over the last two weeks, we've treated dozens of patients for shock and heart palpitations. But when the Spikes trade hit, our ER looked like a M*A*S*H unit. There were guys in green shirts everywhere, just kind of flailing around and twitching."

The outbreak began when the Eagles signed receiver Kevin Curtis two weeks ago. SAOSSD cases escalated when the team signed Montae Reagor. But the Spikes deal created a flashover situation. "It was too much, too soon," Albright explained. "In Washington, they are inoculated against this kind of off-season. But March in Philadelphia is usually the time to debate the merits of Jabar Gaffney or hail the return of Shawn Barber. The affect on Philly fans is like shoveling 35 inches of snow after a winter without physical exertion. It's potentially dangerous."

Dr. Sylvester Harczynski agrees. Harczynski owns a degree in Philadelphia Fan Psychology from Temple University, a degree he earned by listening to local sports talk radio until he was declared clinically insane (17.5 minutes). "The Eagles lulled their fans into a false sense of security by letting Jeff Garcia, Rod Hood, and Donte Stallworth walk, then replacing them with Bethel Johnson. Fans were ready to go about their early spring business: complaining about the Phillies and vilifying Donovan McNabb. But the Curtis, Reagor, and Spikes deals created a whiplash effect."

The effect can be seen all over the Philadelphia area. "I can't handle this. I can't handle this," Upper Darby bartender Joe Klein said while hyperventilating into a paper bag. "I mean, they needed receivers and defenders, and they signed receivers and defenders. It just doesn't make sense." Klein was treated at Einstein and released later in the day. "I don't know what came over me. I mean, I handled the Terrell Owens-Jevon Kearse off-season well. I guess my resistance was lowered by one too many Matt Schobel signings."

Albright warns that if you are an Eagles fan who is feeling the onset of SAOSSD, you should take steps to ward off an all-out attack. First, lie down. Second, avoid the Philadelphia Daily News at all costs. Finally, download old press conferences in which Andy Reid says "I'm happy with Greg Lewis and Hank Baskett as my wide receivers," or "Dhani Jones is doing a fine job at linebacker." Most of all, says Allbright, "don't try to be a hero. Don't read mock drafts or search the Internet for other trade rumors. Remember that other teams sign free agents all the time, and that it is a natural part of football."

Anderson did his best to heed Albright's advice, but SAOSSD is a pernicious illness. "It's no big deal, really," Anderson said while in the recover room. "A decent wide receiver. Another small defensive tackle. A good-but-often injured linebacker. It's not like they filled their need for a power back behind Brian Westbrook. Now if they drafter Brian Leonard … wow … a Rutgers guy … big all-purpose runner … that would be … ugh … uggggh," Anderson was quickly rushed to the emergency room and treated with exposure to 50 minutes of Mike McMahon highlights.

Add a comment   categories: Philadelphia Eagles, Football Outsiders, Takeo Spikes, Kevin Curtis, Trades, Andy Reid, Mike McMahon, Mike Quick
 
Fantasy Football Hall of Fame Finalist: Jimmy Smith
Nov 28, 2006 | 6:44AM | report this

All week, we're profiling the semi-finalists for the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame class of 2007. The FFHoF enshrines players whose statistical accomplishments were more impressive than their actual accomplishments. To be eligible, a player must be retired, have made a significant contribution to fantasy football, and have no shot of making the Pro Football Hall of Fame. To find out more or to vote for your favorite players, read this Friday's Too Deep Zone at Football Outsiders or right here on FOX.

What's your favorite Jimmy Smith memory?

His 118 catch season in 2001? That's not a memory – you looked that up. His 15-catch, 291-yard, three-TD performance against the Ravens in 2000? Now we're getting somewhere. Why do you remember it? Because of that game's impact on your fantasy team, of course. Otherwise, you would have no memory of that game unless you are a Ravens or a Jaguars fan.

And we've never actually met a Jaguars fan. But we're sure they are out there.

Some people believe that Smith belongs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. They are the kind of people who see that Smith is high on the all time receptions list and say "with numbers like that, you have no choice but to put him in." We call those people "baseball fans." Smith was a very, very good player. He was probably the best player on those Jaguars teams of the late 1990's and early 2000's. Except for Tony Boselli; that dude rocked. And Fred Taylor when he was healthy. And Mark Brunell in his best years. Yep, Smith was the second, third, or fourth best player on a team that never made the Super Bowl but certainly won a lot of games. And he led the league in receiving … never. He did finish fourth a lot. If they gave out trophies for finishing fourth or fifth in receiving yards, Smith's mantle would be full.

We've come not to bury Smith, but to praise him. Of course he's not a Canton Hall of Famer. But the guy is a shoo-in for the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame. He compiled tons of stats and led team after team to fantasy championships. His legacy lives on in that Sopranos DVD you bought with the money you earned from your second place fantasy finish in 2002, the money that Smith helped you earn.

All Smith needs now is your vote. Balloting begins on Friday at Football Outsiders for the FFHoF. Come out and cast a ballot, because those who don't vote don't have a right to complain.

post by Mike Tanier

1 Comment | Add a comment   categories: Football Outsiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Fantasy Football, Jimmy Smith
 
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