As the stock of Michigan DT Alan Branch seems to drop further and further in the upcoming NFL draft (having two broken legs generally doesn't help), he's being pushed below fast-rising Amobi Okoye on most draft boards. Indeed, NFLDraftScout.com's defensive tackle rankings list Okoye above Branch. Listed below them is Tennessee's Justin Harrell, who's seen as a notch below the other two first round-graded tackles.

Allow me to hazard a prediction, right now, that Harrell will end up being the best of the three.

Why? Because, simply put, highly-regarded SEC defensive tackles are as much of a lock as any other position and conference in the draft.

Since 1995, 11 defensive tackles from the SEC have been selected in the top two rounds of the draft. They include:

- James Manley

- Booger McFarland

- Reggie McGrew

- Cornelius Griffin

- Gerard Warren

- Richard Seymour

- Marcus Stroud

- John Henderson

- Albert Haynesworth

- DeWayne Robertson

- Johnathan Sullivan

Of the 11, only three were busts: Manley (who never played an NFL down), McGrew, and Sullivan, who ate his way out of the league. The other eight are all starters and considered top-tier NFL defensive tackles.

In addition, many SEC defensive tackles that were drafted in the later rounds made it to the NFL, including Shane Burton, Jason Ferguson, Michael Myers, Darwin Walker, Kendrick Clancy, Ian Scott, Kenny King, and Chad Lavalais

The Big 10, on the other hand, enjoys no such regard. Since Dan Wilkinson went first overall in 1994, they have struggled to put out quality defensive tackles. Second-rounder Nathan Davis played two games with the Falcons before they cut him. Wendell Bryant was drafted 12th overall in 2002 by the Cardinals and is now out of football.

Even the success stories aren't that successful. Jimmy Kennedy has matured into a NFL starter, albeit not a very good one; Anthony Adams still has a job but hasn't broken through, and was let go by the 49ers after three seasons, and Jonathan Babineaux is still behind Rod Coleman and Grady Jackson in Atlanta. The only Big 10 tackle to be a real success since Wilkinson is Chargers DT Luis Castillo, who made it to the Pro Bowl in his second season.

The highest-drafted defensive tackle in Conference USA (Okoye's home conference for the majority of his college career) history is former UAB DT Eddie Freeman, who was out of the league after 20 games.

Does this mean that making a move for Okoye or Branch is an obvious mistake? Not really. Okoye has that massive upside, and Branch is the only legit nose tackle that's Day 1-caliber. Picking Harrell, though, sure would look like a nice move for a team looking for defensive line depth. Don't be surprised if one of the "smarter" organizations in the league grab him at the end of the first round.

written by Bill Barnwell

Pac-Man Jones is going to take a major hit in the wallet now that commissioner Roger Goodell has suspended him for the year without pay. But let's talk about the other people who will be heavily affected by this decision: The Tennessee Titans players, coaches and fans.

Remember how good everybody felt about the Tennessee Titans at the end of last season? There's now very little chance of that carrying over into 2007. Pac-Man Jones was a major distraction, but he was also the best player on that team. He wasn't a year or two away from being a shutdown corner -- he already was a shutdown corner, the best one in the NFL outside of Denver.

Our game charting numbers for 2006 are now very close to complete; we're missing eight games out of the entire season. Look at how Pac-Man Jones rated compared to the league's other corners.

Yards allowed per pass attempt (minimum 48 passes)

• Pac-Man Jones, TEN: 5.4 yds/att
• Jason Craft, NO: 5.5 yds/att
• R.W. McQuarters, NYG: 5.6 yds/att
• Walt Harris, SF: 5.9 yds/att
• Nate Vasher, CHI: 5.9yds/att
• Champ Bailey, DEN: 5.9 yds/att
• Nick Harper, IND: 6.0 yds/att
  
• Asante Samuel, NE: 6.2 yds/att

Stop rate (stopping plays short of 40% of yards on first, 60% on second, 100% on third)

• Jason Craft, NO: 64%
• Pac-Man Jones, TEN: 63%
• Al Harris, GB: 62%
• Champ Bailey, DEN: 61%
• Courtland Finnegan, TEN: 61%
• Charles Tillman, CHI: 60%
• Mike McKenzie, NO: 60%
• Chris McAlister, BAL: 60%

The Titans can take some solace in the fact that they already signed Nick Harper to be Pac-Man's partner if he stayed, and Pac-Man's replacement if he was suspended. But Harper allowed very few yards per pass in part because people were throwing ahead of him in zone coverage (we count those passes as half-credit). Courtland Finnegan is promising, but at 48 passes he barely hits the minimum here. Like Jason Craft and Mike McKenzie R.W. McQuarters (sorry about the earlier mistake, Saints fans -- Aaron), he's a nickel back usually facing lesser receivers. The other names here are practically a who's who of the best cornerbacks in the league, although it is missing Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden (injured part of last year) and Nate Clements and Rashean Mathis (who are just below these rankings in both stats).

Say what you will about his personality, but Jones is an exceptionally talented football player. Very few starting cornerbacks reach this level of performance in their second year. He was only going to get better in 2007. Now he's gone, and a lot of Tennessee's playoff hopes are gone with him.

You might not feel bad for the Titans -- after all, didn't they know about Pac-Man's troubles when they drafted him? Yes, they did. But a lot of players who get in trouble in college at the age of 20 turn out to be fine when they get older. Plenty of NFL players come from bad neighborhoods, and have friends still in those neighborhoods, but clean up their act when they hit the pros. The Titans just had the bad luck to find one of those who didn't. The better he got as a player, the worse his act got off the field.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Denver's recent trade of Tatum Bell and George Foster for Dre' Bly was just one more example in a long history of discarded Denver running backs. Since Olandis Gary turned in a 1,000-yard season subbing for Terrell Davis in 1999, the Broncos have not had a running back lead the team in rushes for more than two straight seasons.  Five different Denver backs -- Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Reuben Droughns, and Bell -- have put up 1,000-yard seasons in that time.

The Broncos clearly realized years before other teams that running backs are often just a product of the system.  The Colts just won the Super Bowl after letting Edgerrin James leave in free agency. Shaun Alexander struggled just one season after winning the MVP due to his own injuries and offensive line struggles.  The simple truth is that is that more than 30 running backs could run for over 1,000 yards behind a solid offensive line.  The Broncos’ realization of this fact has saved them cap space and allowed them to acquire the best pair of corners in football.  (Champ Bailey came in a previous trade for Clinton Portis.)

All of the above is true, but the next logical step after "running backs are fungible" is "all running backs are created equal." But this is not necessarily the case.  Six different running backs have led the Broncos in rushing the past eight seasons, but they have been far from equal. Here is a look at how each one did in our Football Outsiders advanced stats of DPAR (which measures total value) and DVOA (which measures value per play):

• 1999: Gary 18.7 DPAR, 0.5% DVOA
• 2000: Anderson 28.4 DPAR, 9.5% DVOA
• 2001: Davis 9.3 DPAR, -3.1% DVOA
• 2002: Portis 45.2 DPAR, 23.1% DVOA
• 2003: Portis 37.0 DPAR, 15.3% DVOA
• 2004: Droughns 16.4 DPAR, -0.8% DVOA
• 2005: Anderson 27.0 DPAR, 20.3% DVOA
• 2006: T.Bell 11.0 DPAR -2.1% DVOA

As an aside, Terrell Davis trumps even Portis. He had 59.1 and 65.7 DPAR in 1997 and 1998 respectively, leading the league each year. He also led the league in DVOA in 1998, and was second in 1997, narrowly behind Barry Sanders.

Not surprisingly, given the inconsistent running backs, the Broncos offense has had some wild swings during this period. Despite their sterling reputation, they have had three below average seasons running the football. Here's a look at total offensive DVOA as well as rushing offense for Denver as a team:

• 1999: -5.3% Offense, -0.7% Rushing
• 2000:  19.1% Offense, 14.3% Rushing
• 2001:  -6.2% Offense, -6.5% Rushing
• 2002:  17.0% Offense, 20.4% Rushing
• 2003:  8.6% Offense,  8.1% Rushing
• 2004:  11.3% Offense, 1.6% Rushing
• 2005:  23.4% Offense, 23.0% Rushing
• 2006:  -8.1% Offense, -6.7% Rushing

The Broncos have had two main quarterbacks during this period, Brian Griese and Jake Plummer. The offensive line has not been consistent outside of Tom Nalen, who has anchored the line during this whole period. Nalen is the only Denver offensive lineman who has made the Pro Bowl during this period.

Maybe uncertainty in the line corresponds with the decreases in effectiveness, but I’d argue that perhaps Mike Anderson and Clinton Portis are better players than the other backs. Tatum Bell was more successful in 2005 than last year, but he was still substantially less productive from a DVOA perspective than Anderson was.

I think the Broncos got the better of the trade with Detroit, but at a certain point, the Broncos may be getting too cute. They are consistently above average, but only once in the past four years (2005) did they have a truly outstanding offense. And yet, they continue with the same strategy.

The next 1,000-yard rusher will likely be the recently signed Travis Henry. Denver signed him to a sizable contract, perhaps realizing that not all backs are created equal. The problem is that Henry has proven himself solid, but below average. He has yet to post a positive DVOA in Buffalo or Tennessee despite multiple 1,000-yard seasons. In general, he has always put up high yardage totals simply because teams kept giving him the ball as the starting running back.

This year, Henry will probably rack up another 1,200 yards or more, and everyone will pat Denver on the back for adding another name to the list of seemingly successful backs they have created. It is far from certain, however, that Henry will be more like Portis than Droughns. Anybody can gain yardage in the Denver system, but not just anyone can be a star.

Post by Ned Macey 

Host: Welcome to the hottest new show on television, the one that pits precocious middle schoolers against people who were too dumb to get on any other reality shows. This week, we offer a new twist: the kids will be competing against NFL personalities.

It's time for our first matchup. Here's the scenario. You are a 32-year old NFL quarterback coming off a bad season. You were just traded to new team, but you are seriously considering retirement instead. What do you do?

Fifth Grader: In recess, I play on a football team. Playing football is fun. My 32-year dad is on an insurance sales team. Selling insurance is not fun. Anyone who chooses selling insurance, or managing a construction company, or waiting until his money runs out and then selling his autograph for $5 a pop at sports card shows is just crazy. I would keep playing football.

Contestant "Jake:" I'm tired of football and I don't want to play anymore. I don't even want to sit on a bench for a year or two and collect a big salary while retaining the $5 million portion of my signing bonus that I may forfeit by retiring. I won't be installing patios for a living in three years. I'm gonna be a television personality. Everybody wants a television analyst with a beard that looks like a squirrel's nest.

Host: Sorry, Jake. The fifth grader wins this round easily.

Now for our next scenario: Your team just went 14-2 but lost in the playoffs. You are a general manager who can't get along with your head coach. You give the coach a vote of confidence after the playoff loss, but a few weeks later you find that you still can't see eye-to-eye with him. What do you do?

Fifth Grader: That's easy. In school, we are taught to put differences aside and work together. When we do group projects, we get grades on how well we divide responsibilities and how well we cooperate. If the team is playing well, the general manager must work with the coach, and they must share credit and blame. Plus, if the general manager waits too long and tries to fire the coach, all of the good replacements will be gone. In gym class, we learn that you never want to pick last, or else you get stuck with someone like Norv Turner running your dodge ball team.

Contestant "A.J.:" Fire the unreasonable son-of-a-gun. Hire whoever is left on the market. Risk tearing down everything we've built in the last four years. I'll show fans who the real football expert is around here, just you wait and see.

Host: Sorry, A.J., we have to go with the fifth grader on that one.

Okay, here's another scenario. You are an NFL owner, and you are signing free agents. You have a chance to sign a left tackle, a former Cardinals first round pick who has been a disappointment for his entire career. What do you do?

Fifth grader: My math teacher told me that money is important, and I shouldn't waste all of it on bubble gum and Avatar action figures. This player sounds like the kind of toy who looks great in the commercial but doesn't quite work right when you bring it home. If a toy like that comes with a Happy Meal, then it is great, but if you spend too much money on toys like that, then you cannot afford really good ones.

Contestant "Jerry:" A big left tackle who might be good? Pay him $50-million. Give him the largest bonus in team history. And put him at guard or right tackle, where he can't possibly be worth that kind of money. Sure, that will shake up the team's salary structure a little, but we don't have any complainers or malcontents on our roster, so no worries. In August, the tackle and T.O will be hanging out in the whirlpool with phantom hamstring pulls while the rest of the team sweats through training camp, but I'm sure my new coach and novice offensive coordinator will be able to manage the situation.

Host: Oops, sorry. The fifth grader wins again.

Okay, here's our final scenario: You are hanging out at a Vegas strip club and have the urge to throw $81,000 around on stage. The promoter decides that the money is his and puts it in a big trash bag. What do you do next?

Fifth grader: Well, I'm a little young to be talking about strip clubs, but hey, this is FOX. I know I am not supposed to throw money around. And my uncle once told me that as soon as the cash hits the stage, it belongs to the club, not the dude who threw it. And most important, I know that the best way to avoid trouble is to just walk away from it. The moment you walk into a strip joint with entourage, a rapper, and enough money to buy a loaded Lexus, you are just asking for trouble.

Contestant "Pacman:" First of all, let me say that I'm a victim in all this. I was the one attacked by the bouncers. My stylist got pushed into a cactus, for goodness sakes, and those things are spiky. Anyway, what red-blooded American man wouldn't blow 81 grand on a chance to "make it rain" for visual effect? And who wouldn't expect to get his money back? How would I know that a major fight would break out and that someone would get seriously injured? For some reason, trouble just keeps finding me.

Host: I'm sorry, but the fifth grader wins again. It looks like a clean sweep for the kids, folks. Tune in next week when a 11-year old demonstrates the proper way to dispose of a water bottle before approaching airport security.

post by Mike Tanier

Jason Scott: I'm a long time Titans fan and was shocked by Vince Young's rushing numbers according to your statistics.  (Young comes out with an average value based on DVOA.)  From watching the games it seems as though most of his runs are big third down plays, which I assumed would help him in DVOA.  Why are his rushing numbers ranked so low, barely above Matt Hasselbeck?

Aaron Schatz: It's all about those first few games where Young wasn't playing as well. Young had to learn how to play quarterback in the NFL -- that includes not just reading coverages, but also knowing when to scramble and when to chuck it away. What's remarkable is not that he had trouble running early, but that he learned so fast.

In the first nine games of the season, Young gained first downs (or touchdowns) on just 8 of 33 carries, averaging 5.2 yards per carry with four fumbles. That's -5.9 DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement). The only quarterback below that for the season is Philip Rivers. (Don't run with the ball, Phil.)

During Tennessee's six-game winning streak, Young has gained first downs (or touchdowns) on 22 of 39 runs, averaging 9.0 yards per carry with no fumbles. That's 11.8 DPAR. The only quarterback above that is Michael Vick.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Ron: OK, many of the Cowboys fans and I are a tad bitter about Terrance Newman not making the Pro Bowl - especially with DeAngelo Hall getting in. We feel that Newman does an excellent job of shutting down whatever side of the field he's on, or whatever receiver he's been assigned to. He doesn't get the picks or huge plays because QB's just don't throw at him and he doesn't give up big plays.

Are we correct? Is Newman better statistically?

Aaron Schatz: DeAngelo Hall is not the worst Pro Bowl selection this year. That would probably be Mack Strong -- Strong would have been a great pick in any of the last few years, but this year his ability to block just disintegrated. Hall is probably the second-worst selection. Hall is an example of a phenomenon that we may be writing more about in the coming months, and in next year's book: people wrongly assume that great athletes are effective football players. This is a huge problem with boom-and-bust running backs of the DeShaun Foster type, for example, but it also goes for Hall, who is super insanely fast but still learning effective cornerback technique. He's not a bad cornerback, he's just average. His reputation is helped by the fact that the other cornerbacks on his team are god awful. Compared to them, average and fast looks Pro Bowl-caliber.

Anyway, spurred on by your question I recompiled the data from this year's game charting project with all the games that are finished so far. We've got partial data through Week 13, although the later in the season you go, the more games that are unfinished. So take this stuff with a grain of salt. Also note that this stuff doesn't include pass interference penalties yet.

But... I was surprised to see that Newman's metrics don't come out much better than Hall's metrics. With 56 charted passes, Hall has given up 8.8 yards per pass with a Stop Rate of 55%. Newman, on 39 charted passes, has given up 8.2 yards per pass with a Stop Rate of 56% -- slightly better, but not much. The difference does come out in the last thing you noted, that quarterbacks avoid Newman. We've charted more passes thrown at Hall than at the inferior Jason Webster (52) but far fewer at Newman than at his partner, Anthony Henry (61). Remember not to compare those numbers between teams, since we have different amounts of games charted for each team.

Of course, if you open your Pro Football Prospectus 2006 you'll see that Newman was in the top five in both stats last year, and Hall was emphatically not.

Here's a look at the players who are best in the metrics, based on the data collected so far. We're listing players with a minimum of 30 passes. First, the top 10 in Stop Rate. (Stop Rate measures percentage of plays that do not achieve offensive success by Football Outsiders standards: 45% of yards on first down, 60% on second down, 100% on third down.)

• 32-A.Jones TEN 52 65%
• 28-L.Bodden CLE 31 65%
• 31-R.Marshall CAR 35 63%
• 33-C.Tillman CHI 75 63%
• 21-C.McAlister BAL 53 62%
• 20-C.Gamble CAR 38 61%
• 29-D.Florence SD 55 60%
• 26-L.Sheppard PHI 35 60%
• 22-F.Thomas NO 49 59%
• 36-D.Barrett NYJ 34 59%

The other number listed is number of charted passes. First of all, I should point out one player who ISN'T listed here, because I made the cut-off 30 passes. Antonio Cromartie has a Stop Rate of 69% with 28 charted passes. Wow, was I wrong when I thought the Chargers made a mistake because Cromartie would require years to learn to play corner in the NFL. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Then we've got Pac-Man, who probably should have made the AFC Pro Bowl team over Rashean Mathis, and our boy Leigh Bodden -- remember, this doesn't include the recent games where Bodden played hurt and not up to his previous level. Fred Thomas is still on this list for the same reason, because he played so well early in the year, and this doesn't include those recent games where he got torched like Johnny Storm. I'm a little surprised to see two Panthers on the list, since I thought the secondary was one of the big reasons they didn't live up to their Super Bowl potential this year. And I read some San Diego blog where some guy was talking about Quentin Jammer having a huge year this year. Actually, by our numbers he's the only one of the three San Diego cornerbacks who still qualifies as a weakness.

The top 10 in yards per play:

• 36-D.Barrett NYJ 34 4.5
• 28-L.Bodden CLE 31 4.6
• 22-A.Samuel NE 53 4.7
• 27-W.Harris SF 48 5.0
• 25-R.McQuarters NYG 35 5.0
• 31-N.Vasher CHI 44 5.4
• 31-C.Finnegan TEN 30 5.4
• 32-A.Jones TEN 52 5.5
• 26-L.Sheppard PHI 35 5.5
• 31-R.Marshall CAR 35 5.5

These numbers are a little kooky. David Barrett? R.W. McQuarters has looked horrible recently. Let's see where those guys stand at the end of the year.

I have no problem with Ronde Barber (we all know about his amazing run support) or Sheppard. Based on these numbers, Richard Marshall, the Carolina rookie, should be going to the Pro Bowl, but I don't trust that, not with this incomplete data. Combining this data with what we know from past seasons, I would have given the third NFC spot to Nathan Vasher. Vasher has a lower Stop Rate (57%) than Charles Tillman, but allows fewer yards per pass and opponents throw at Vasher roughly half as often compared to Tillman. Newman would have been a better choice than Hall, certainly, based on what we know from last year. Look, Jason Webster and Allen Rossum are so bad that if DeAngelo Hall was as good as people think, teams would treat those guys the way they treat Darrant Williams when Champ Bailey is on the other side of the field.

To finish up, here's a look at the worst cornerbacks so far by these metrics (remember, though, incomplete data). First, Stop Rate:

• 22-S.Rolle BAL 46 30%
• 22-Tr.Fisher STL 42 33%
• 24-T.Law KC 35 37%
• 27-J.Webster ATL 52 38%
• 23-M.Trufant SEA 55 40%
• 25-K.Wright WAS 42 40%
• 21-J.Fletcher DET 32 41%
• 27-Da.Williams DEN 59 41%
• 23-Q.Jammer SD 64 42%
• 24-I.Taylor PIT 67 43%

And then yards per pass:

• 22-S.Rolle BAL 46 14.1
• 22-Tr.Fisher STL 42 10.7
• 26-T.Hill STL 40 10.7
• 21-J.Fletcher DET 32 10.4
• 20-T.James CIN 42 10.0
• 21-R.Hill TEN 45 10.0
• 27-J.Webster ATL 52 9.9
• 24-T.Law KC 35 9.7
• 29-B.Williams JAC 47 9.6
• 24-I.Taylor PIT 67 9.3

You can be very sure that Bill Belichick, Marty Schottenheimer, and Tony Dungy know who to pick on if/when they face the Ravens in January. Also, Ty Law is over the hill -- his metrics were awful in New York last year too -- and the Rams' defensive backfield is horrific.

In a few weeks, I'll be selecting the Too Deep Zone All Rookie Team. With the help of Michael David Smith and some of the other Football Outsiders, I select an entire team of rookies to honor, right down to the special teams gunners. I also pick a Rookie of the Year, which is never an easy task. This year, it's really difficult.

I drew up my first draft of the All Rookie Team about a month ago. Back then, the ROY question was easy: Marques Colston was the odds-on favorite for the award. But after a remarkable three-game stretch in which he caught 27 passes (19 of them for first downs or touchdowns), Colston missed three games with an injury. During his time with the pit crew, lots of other competitors gained ground.

Just after Colston got hurt, Joseph Addai had his monster 171-yard, four-touchdown Monday night game. If Addai followed that performance up with a few other great games, he would be the clear favorite ROY candidate. But he has rushed for just 56 and 22 yards in his last two games and hasn't done much as a receiver lately. Maurice Jones-Drew and Laurence Maroney have similar resumes to Addai: a few great games, value as a runner, receiver, and return man (Addai isn't a return man but has more offensive yards than the others), and some highlight-reel plays to capture the imagination. Reggie Bush is in the same category but hasn't been quite as good. If there are three or four similar players vying for an award, it may be a sign that none of them has distinguished himself enough to earn the award. But I haven't ruled any of them out.

Vince Young has leapt into the spotlight in the last few weeks. He has been impressive as a runner and (to a lesser extent) a passer during the Titans' four-game winning streak. But I'm wary of anoint a quarterback as the ROY because he "won" or got hot at the right time. Young's DPAR – 7.9 as a passer, 1.7 as a rusher – is good for a rookie but not overwhelming.

DPAR, of course, is Football Outsiders' top tool for evaluating players. Addai's DPAR is a whopping 33.2 as a runner, far outstripping Jones-Drew (10.7) or Maroney (2.5). Addai has them beat as a receiver, too, and kick return yardage can't really make up the difference. Colston's 25.9 DPAR is within striking distance of Addai. But I'm not obligated to choose the rookie DPAR champion as ROY. Other factors come into play, like the strength of the rookie's supporting cast. After watching Edgerrin James flop in Arizona, I'm convinced that it's really easy to run the ball in the Colts offense. That's not a knock on Addai, but if he continues to slip in the next few weeks, it'll be taken into account.

Why does the ROY have to be a "skill position" player? A month ago, before Addai's big game, I had Jets' center Nick Mangold penciled in as the runner-up to Colston. I have film evidence that Mangold has had a great season, plus lots of press clippings. The FO stats say that the Jets line has been playing relatively well, and their playoff run has been a pleasant surprise. If there were no high-profile candidates at quarterback, receiver, or running back, I would tap Mangold. At this point, I don't want to pick a lineman just to be cool. (Hey, look how much smarter than everyone else I am for picking this guy!) Do you really like Mangold better than Colston, Young, or Addai? I don't, but if that trio plays poorly over the next two weeks, Mangold may still get the nod.

The same goes for defensive players. Last year, I gave serious consideration to DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Lofa Tutupu, and Odell Thurman as ROY candidates. But this year's rookie defensive class isn't as impressive as last year's. DeMeco Ryans of the Texans has Defensive Rookie of the Year all but locked up. His raw totals: 105 solo tackles, 3.5 sacks, 12 tackles for a loss, an interception, six passes defensed – blow away the competition. Dig deeper, and you discover that Ryans isn't just making clean-up tackles. But again, does he have something that the offensive stars don't? If he does, I can't find it.

Late Monday night, a final contender entered the field: Devin Hester. Check out the Bears special teams DVOA: a whopping 14.8 on punt returns, and that doesn't count Hester's missed field goal return. That may not compare to Addai or Colston's DPAR, but the impact of Hester's returns has been huge. Hester doesn't contribute much to the Bears defense, and I haven't seen him on offense yet, though I have a feeling I will. He's on the list.

Clearly, the ROY race is going right down to the wire. The list goes live just before Week 17, so Addai, Colston, Hester, Young, and the dark horses have two more weeks to (further) impress me. I have a feeling that I will be giving a lot of "runner-up" and "honorable mention" notices this year.

post by Mike Tanier

All week, we're profiling the semi-finalists for the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame class of 2007. The FFHoF enshrines players whose statistical accomplishments were more impressive than their actual accomplishments. To be eligible, a player must be retired, have made a significant contribution to fantasy football, and have no shot of making the Pro Football Hall of Fame. To find out more or to vote for your favorite players, read this Friday's Too Deep Zone at Football Outsiders and right here on FOX.

If biceps won championships, then Eddie George's Titans would have won Super Bowl XXXIV and maybe another Super Bowl as well. George's biceps were like steel cables wrapped around titanium rods wrapped king cobras. When he folded his arms, it created a sonic boom.

George was a very good running back, arguably a great one, from 1996 through 2000. He was a tough, durable runner who could also catch the ball. He never missed a game. His yards-per-carry were always a little low, but he did run the ball a lot late in the game when the Titans were salting opponents away.

All of the mileage caught up to George in 2001, when his average dipped to 3.0 yards per carry. But the Titans refused to accept the fact that their matinee idol running back was on the decline. So they kept handing the ball to him. He averaged 3.3 yards per carry for the rest of his career, but the Titans gave him 650 more carries in two seasons to prove that he was finished. And because he was still a pretty good short yardage runner, he kept racking up the touchdowns. In short, George the possible Pro Football Hall of Famer became George the Likely First Ball Fantasy Football Hall of Famer.

But he cannot reach the FFHoF without your help. George leads this year's class of semi-finalists, but he faces some tough competition. If you want to see a bronze bust of George hanging beside such great fantasy running backs as Chris Warren and Terry Allen, you have to make your voice heard on Friday. Read Too Deep Zone, then make your voice heard!

post by Mike Tanier

Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"Buffalo is using a really soft front against the Colts. They are only keeping six in the box. I want someone to create a montage of Edgerrin James watching this while 'Memories' plays in the background."

"It's amazing how different San Diego's defense is without Shawne ('I can't find the bottle') Merriman in the lineup. They can bring no real consistent pressure, and Carson Palmer is shredding them to bits."

"Is my scoreboard messed up? Tennessee's put 26 points on Baltimore in the first half?"

"Somebody forgot to tell Travis Henry the Ravens' run defense is good. He's running all over them in the first half."

"#### Enberg and Randy Cross are going on and on about how smart Tony Dungy is because he doesn't care how big a player on his defense is, he just cares if he can play. Uh, guys, did you notice how the Colts' small defensive players are getting their butts kicked up and down the field every Sunday?"

"Just when you thought it was safe to come out of the locker room, the Chargers scored 21 points in the third quarter. Philip Rivers is showing a very admirable ability to rebound from a rough start ... and before I could even finish writing that, Chad Johnson ran by the entire right side of San Diego's defense for a 74-yard touchdown."

"San Francisco shut down Minnesota last week, and now, thanks largely to three fumbles, they've rammed the Lions' bandwagon off the highway. Are they getting better?"

"The Jets brought a ton of pressure, and the Patriots simply haven't had time to react. Tom Brady can't move around well on the sloppy field."

"Marlon McCree should be suspended for the rest of the year for the helmet to helmet hit he just put on T.J. Houshmandzadeh before the pass was even there."

"I like Jeff Fisher, but he made a cardinal sin at the end of the Baltimore game. Driving for the game-winning field goal, he has 3rd-and-4 at the 25-yard line. The Titans run the ball into the line, leaving a 40+ yard field goal. It gets blocked, and what probably would have been the biggest upset of the day does not happen."

"Shaun Philips really abused Bengals fullback Jeremi Johnson on the Carson Palmer fumble in the fourth quarter … The last two LaDainian Tomlinson touchdowns came within 15 seconds of each other."

"St. Louis' run defense is horrid. 'Oops - I missed the assignment again!'"

"This is the same Steelers team we've seen all year, except with better luck and more stability on special teams."

"Sean Payton - he knows what he's doing - but he looks like a middle manager out there."

"Richie Incognito is the real-life embodiment of the fat guy from Varsity Blues."

"Broncos-Raiders was a heck o####ame if you hate drives or offense."

"Hi, Brandon Jacobs? This is Steve Smith. When you finally give birth to that football, give me a ring, I can give you some wiping tips."

"The Giants were really dominating the game for about a quarter and a half, and then it suddenly turned at the end of the first half, and now they've turned into the gang that couldn't shoot straight."

"The short field goal attempt returned for a touchdown is easily my favorite play in all of football. Except, of course, when it's against the Giants."

The Colts were 18.5 point favorites against the spread on Sunday against the Titans. They were supposed to blow out their division rival, but they barely escaped with a 14-13 win.

That 18.5 point number was the largest spread posted for an NFL game in four years. Most casual bettors steer clear of spreads that wide in the NFL. Other gamblers will only take the dog in lopsided games, and anyone who bet the Titans last week was counting his money in the third quarter.

But the favorite isn't a bad play in a wide-margin game, especially when that favorite has a horseshoe-style helmet. Here are all the games that had wider than 14.5-point spreads in the last four years and their ATS results. You can guess why the 14.5 number was chosen: if you lay two touchdowns without even getting a push, you're really banking on a blowout:

Eagles 19.5 over Texans 2002: Eagles 35, Texans 17: Loss

Chiefs 14.5 over Lions 2003 Chiefs 45, Lions 17: Win

Broncos 15 over Ravens 2005: Broncos 12, Ravens 10: Loss

Colts 17.5 over Texans 2005: Colts 31, Texans 17: Loss

Colts 15.5 over Niners 2005: Colts 28, Niners 3: Win

Colts 14.5 over Texans 2005: Colts 38, Texans 20: Win

Colts 15.5 over Titans 2005: Colts 35, Titans 3: Win

Jaguars 16 over Niners 2005 Jags 10, Niners 9:Loss

Seahawks 16 over Niners 2005: Seahawks 41, Niners 3: Win

Colts 18.5 over Titans 2006: Colts 14, Titans 13: Loss

Notice that most of the lopsided spreads occurred in 2005, and all but one involved either the Colts as favorites or the Niners as dogs. Last season, the gap between the best and the worst teams in the NFL became so huge that we had to adjust our opponent-adjustment formulas at Football Outsiders. It looks like Vegas had to make some changes too: two-touchdown spreads went from being a once-a-year phenomenon to a regular part of life in San Francisco and Indianapolis.

The Colts are now 3-2 in the past two seasons when laying 14.5 or more points. As usual, Vegas has made the Colts – and big-time favorites in general – almost a 50-50 play, so don't automatically grab the points when the Colts face the Texans or Titans again. Of course, both of those games will be on the road, and after this week's narrow escape at home the Colts may not inspire such wacky spreads.

Oh, and that guy who made up the drinking game forgot that you have to take two shots every time the words "Snowball" or "Santa Claus" are uttered.

Post by Mike Tanier

Every week at Football Outsiders, the writers e-mail each other with thoughts and updates about Sunday's games as they happen. Here are some of the things we said on Sunday:

"Albert Haynesworth should get a 10-game suspension for what he did. It was perhaps the dirtiest move I've ever seen on a football field."

"Pennington made a stupid play worse by tossing it up for grabs. Horrible, game-changing call."

"Look, this is the Colts. You don’t kick a field goal against them and think, 'golly, this three-point lead sure is safe.'"

"So, for those scoring at home, I have it as: Pennington’s little swing pass to Leon Washington. Washington handed off to Brad Smith. From there it was (deep breath) Smith to Laveranues Coles, Coles to Chad Pennington, Pennington to Justin McCareins, McCareins to Smith, Smith to Coles, Coles to Nick Mangold, Mangold to Washington (who lost the ball), and the game-ending recovery by Indy’s Jason David. That was fun."

"Looked to me like the Chargers backed off on the final drive. If I were Brian Billick, I wouldn't do any preening after that one."

"I'm not sure which is worse, the Raiders' O-line or the Browns' back seven on defense. As expected, this is just a painful game to watch."

"Anyone notice the lack o####reat team this year?"

"Calling the Bengals run defense 'average' is a compliment. This is the second straight week they've been treaded."

"I just saw Keanu Kaesvaharn'#### on Reche Caldwell. It's amazing how much better he is when he's plugged into the Matrix."

"I can't believe I'm saying this, but right now, the Ravens are the best team in the AFC North."

"No really great team this year? I humbly submit the Chicago Bears."

For more, read Audibles at the Line on Monday afternoon at FootballOutsiders.com.

Post by Mike Tanier