Here at FOX, he's called the "Tackle Machine." At the four-letter network, they called him a "Standout Linebacker." He's Cato June, the former Colts weakside linebacker who just signed with the Buccaneers. Tackles are his calling card: he registered 142 of them this year, his third straight season with more than one hundred. Surely a player who brings down almost 10 opposing ball carriers per game represents a significant upgrade for the Bucs defense, right?

Well, maybe.

Tackle statistics are among the most misunderstood numbers in football. They aren't even "official" stats, but they are easy enough to find on various websites, so fans and writers freely bandy them about. When we see that Zach Thomas made 165 total tackles (103 solos and 62 assists), we assume that he's doing a heck of a job. And we are usually right: it takes a pretty good defender to top 100 tackles. But there's a big problem: tackle totals are highly distorted, and the distortion favors players on bad defenses. That means that the players on top of the tackle leader boards aren’t always the best defenders in the league. Instead, they are often the best players on lousy defenses.

Imagine a defense so good that it always causes opponents to go three-and-out. Such a defense would only record one or two tackles on a typical series: two tackles and an incomplete pass on third down. If that team's offense was competent, then opponents would be throwing the ball to catch up in the second half, creating more incomplete passes and fewer tackles. That's why great defenses often record low tackle totals. The 2006 Ravens recorded just 826 total tackles, the fourth-lowest total in the league. The Bears were also below the league average.

Now flip the scenario and imagine a defense that allows a lot of long drives. Every 80-yard drive represents eight or nine tackles for the defense, even though the unit isn't doing a very good job. The tackle total increases if the run defense is bad, because running plays produce more tackles than passing plays. It goes up again if the team is good at avoiding big pass plays: one 50-yard bomb results in one tackle, but 10 five-yard runs often yield 10 tackles.

A team with a bad run defense that's great at avoiding big pass plays? Wait, I just described the Colts! The Colts defense recorded 1,010 total tackles, the fourth highest total in the league. Here's a list of the teams that recorded over 1,000 tackles last season, along with their DVOA rank in run defense. Notice the trend:

Team     Tackles        Run Defense Rank

Bills         1,076          29th

Titans      1,059         28th

Jets          1,052        32nd

Colts       1,010         31st

Bucs       1,004         9th

It's pretty clear that high tackle totals are partially the result of an inept defense (the Bucs crash the party because their terrible offense kept the defense on the field forever). The Colts registered nine percent more tackles than the league average. For June, nine percent amounts to about 13 tackles.

But that's not the only distortion affecting June's stats. June's 96 solo tackles ranked 10th in the NFL among linebackers, but his 45 assists ranked fifth. Assist totals can be a little funky. Last year, the average team recorded 701 solo tackles with a standard deviation of 42 (I'm rounding to whole numbers because that's what I do). To de-mathify a little, that means that most teams register between 659 and 743 solo tackles, not much of a spread. The mean for assists was 226, but the standard deviation was a whopping 60, which means that "average" assist totals spread all the way from 166 to 286. With 257 assists, the Colts defense was in the high average range.

If you hate math, you can start reading again. The point is that there may be some disparity between what scorers in different cities call an "assist." In St. Louis (just 85 assists), a defender might have to have his arms around the runner's knees while the main tackler wraps his chest. In Buffalo (352 assists), a defender just has to chest-thump the main tackler after the play to earn an assist. We discovered two years ago at Football Outsiders that some scorers are very generous when doling out "passes defensed" to defenders in cities like Philadelphia. We haven't studied this issue in detail, but the phantom assists were a big problem in the days when teams kept their own tackle data, which is why you can't rely on the totals you see in team media guides from before about 1994.

So June's high assist total may be the result of some extra generosity on the part of the local scorers. Meanwhile, he picked up an extra 13 tackles from playing on a bad defense. Total it up, and his 142 tackles may equate to about 120 for an average defense. That's still a lot of tackles, but it isn't an unusual number. Dozens of linebackers finished with over 100 tackles; most of them are good players, but all of the distortions in the data make it impossible to say that the 120-tackle defenders were better than the 100-tackle players. And the sheer number of guys like Morlon Greenwood and Chris Draft who cracked 100 reminds us that 100 tackles isn't much of a milestone; most teams have one or two linebackers and safeties who approach the century mark every year.

Now, I spent weeks breaking down tape of the Colts defense in December and January. I saw the good and the bad, and I saw a lot of June. He's a very good coverage linebacker. He's a below average run defender. I also have a spreadsheet full of Football Outsiders breakdowns: how many tackles he made on passing plays, how many on rushing plays, how many near the line of scrimmage, how many down the field, and so on. The breakdowns have their own distortions, so I won't go through them all here. But they back up my scouting notion that June is at his best in coverage and makes too many of his tackles after significant gains. June's average tackle occurred 5.3 yards downfield, a poor figure for a linebacker, though its true that he made many tackles after long gains because he was cleaning up his teammates mistakes.

The Bucs signed a good linebacker. June fits their system, and he makes their greybeard defense younger. He'll help the pass defense. But let's 86 the "tackle machine" rhetoric. June made a lot of tackles because there were a lot of tackles to make. Ironically, if he really makes the Bucs defense better, then his totals will go down.

post by Mike Tanier

Host: Welcome to the hottest new show on television, the one that pits precocious middle schoolers against people who were too dumb to get on any other reality shows. This week, we offer a new twist: the kids will be competing against NFL personalities.

It's time for our first matchup. Here's the scenario. You are a 32-year old NFL quarterback coming off a bad season. You were just traded to new team, but you are seriously considering retirement instead. What do you do?

Fifth Grader: In recess, I play on a football team. Playing football is fun. My 32-year dad is on an insurance sales team. Selling insurance is not fun. Anyone who chooses selling insurance, or managing a construction company, or waiting until his money runs out and then selling his autograph for $5 a pop at sports card shows is just crazy. I would keep playing football.

Contestant "Jake:" I'm tired of football and I don't want to play anymore. I don't even want to sit on a bench for a year or two and collect a big salary while retaining the $5 million portion of my signing bonus that I may forfeit by retiring. I won't be installing patios for a living in three years. I'm gonna be a television personality. Everybody wants a television analyst with a beard that looks like a squirrel's nest.

Host: Sorry, Jake. The fifth grader wins this round easily.

Now for our next scenario: Your team just went 14-2 but lost in the playoffs. You are a general manager who can't get along with your head coach. You give the coach a vote of confidence after the playoff loss, but a few weeks later you find that you still can't see eye-to-eye with him. What do you do?

Fifth Grader: That's easy. In school, we are taught to put differences aside and work together. When we do group projects, we get grades on how well we divide responsibilities and how well we cooperate. If the team is playing well, the general manager must work with the coach, and they must share credit and blame. Plus, if the general manager waits too long and tries to fire the coach, all of the good replacements will be gone. In gym class, we learn that you never want to pick last, or else you get stuck with someone like Norv Turner running your dodge ball team.

Contestant "A.J.:" Fire the unreasonable son-of-a-gun. Hire whoever is left on the market. Risk tearing down everything we've built in the last four years. I'll show fans who the real football expert is around here, just you wait and see.

Host: Sorry, A.J., we have to go with the fifth grader on that one.

Okay, here's another scenario. You are an NFL owner, and you are signing free agents. You have a chance to sign a left tackle, a former Cardinals first round pick who has been a disappointment for his entire career. What do you do?

Fifth grader: My math teacher told me that money is important, and I shouldn't waste all of it on bubble gum and Avatar action figures. This player sounds like the kind of toy who looks great in the commercial but doesn't quite work right when you bring it home. If a toy like that comes with a Happy Meal, then it is great, but if you spend too much money on toys like that, then you cannot afford really good ones.

Contestant "Jerry:" A big left tackle who might be good? Pay him $50-million. Give him the largest bonus in team history. And put him at guard or right tackle, where he can't possibly be worth that kind of money. Sure, that will shake up the team's salary structure a little, but we don't have any complainers or malcontents on our roster, so no worries. In August, the tackle and T.O will be hanging out in the whirlpool with phantom hamstring pulls while the rest of the team sweats through training camp, but I'm sure my new coach and novice offensive coordinator will be able to manage the situation.

Host: Oops, sorry. The fifth grader wins again.

Okay, here's our final scenario: You are hanging out at a Vegas strip club and have the urge to throw $81,000 around on stage. The promoter decides that the money is his and puts it in a big trash bag. What do you do next?

Fifth grader: Well, I'm a little young to be talking about strip clubs, but hey, this is FOX. I know I am not supposed to throw money around. And my uncle once told me that as soon as the cash hits the stage, it belongs to the club, not the dude who threw it. And most important, I know that the best way to avoid trouble is to just walk away from it. The moment you walk into a strip joint with entourage, a rapper, and enough money to buy a loaded Lexus, you are just asking for trouble.

Contestant "Pacman:" First of all, let me say that I'm a victim in all this. I was the one attacked by the bouncers. My stylist got pushed into a cactus, for goodness sakes, and those things are spiky. Anyway, what red-blooded American man wouldn't blow 81 grand on a chance to "make it rain" for visual effect? And who wouldn't expect to get his money back? How would I know that a major fight would break out and that someone would get seriously injured? For some reason, trouble just keeps finding me.

Host: I'm sorry, but the fifth grader wins again. It looks like a clean sweep for the kids, folks. Tune in next week when a 11-year old demonstrates the proper way to dispose of a water bottle before approaching airport security.

post by Mike Tanier

Two years ago, Michael Clayton had one of the best seasons any rookie wide receiver has ever had. Clayton had 80 catches for 1,193 yards and seven touchdowns. By Football Outsiders' DPAR numbers, Clayton was the fourth most valuable receiver in the league that season -- and that doesn't even consider the things he did that don't count in the stats, like run-block better than any rookie wide receiver in recent memory.

Two years later, Clayton has become an afterthought, and Tampa Bay just stuck him on injured reserve with a torn MCL in his left knee. Clayton has less than 800 yards over the last two seasons and just one touchdown. He may not even be a starter next year.

It's hard to figure out what happened to this guy. He's had nagging injuries, and apparently spent some time in Jon Gruden's doghouse for not rehabilitating them with the proper attitude. When he finally got healthy, the age-defying Joey Galloway had taken his place as Tampa's number one option in the passing game. But even considering these issues, his decline is astonishing. A number two receiver should gain more than 400 yards per season.

Will Clayton ever live up to the promise he showed in 2004? As we noted in Pro Football Prospectus 2006, Clayton's decline from 1,193 yards in 2004 to 356 yards in 2005 is the greatest sophomore slump by a wide receiver in NFL history. The other two receivers who fell by at least 600 yards -- Anquan Boldin and Derrick Alexander -- bounced back and were strong again in their third and fourth seasons. But Clayton just faded some more.

I ran three-year similarity scores for Clayton and most of the players who come out as similar are guys in their fourth or fifth season, not their third. Similarity scores start at 1000 (same player) and go down, and in general wide receivers aren't really that similar once you get lower than 800 or so. There's no third-year player with is similar to Clayton with a score over 700 in all three seasons. The closest is a guy named Derrick Gaffney, who had a career high of 691 yards as a rookie with the 1978 Jets and gradually faded away. But 691 yards is a far cry from 1,193 yards. Next comes Terry Glenn, but he's only similar in his first two years -- despite struggling with injuries, he had 792 yards in his third year.

If you look at the guys in their fourth season, it's a parade of guys who just disappeared. Gordon Jones of the 1980-82 Bucs, Floyd Dixon of the 1987-89 Falcons, Germane Crowell of the 1999-2001 Lions. Quincy Morgan is still around, but fairly meaningless. Courtney Hawkins of the 1993-95 Bucs had a reasonable career, lasting until 2000 in Tampa Bay and then Pittsburgh. Charlie Brown of the 1983-84 Redskins and 1985 Falcons did have a big year for Atlanta in 1986, but never played again after the strike year.

Even the guys on that list who had careers pale in comparison to the players who had rookie years similar to Clayton's: James Lofton, Ernest Givins, Bill Brooks, Cris Collinsworth, and Glenn. That was Clayton's original potential.

If any player might give Clayton hope, it is Eddie Kennison. Kennison has one of the weirdest career paths in NFL history. The Rams took him 18th as part of the fabled wide receiver class of 1996 and he had 924 yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie. Like Clayton he crumbled -- in fact, the reason why he's not more similar to Clayton is that he didn't struggle with injury, he was just awful. Kennison had 404 yards in 1997, just 234 yards in 1998. The Rams gave up on him and he bounced around the league, with a good year with the 1999 Saints, a mediocre year with the 2000 Bears, and then that strange 2001 season where he quit on the Denver Broncos in the middle of the year, announced his retirement, and then un-retired a week later to sign with archrival Kansas City.

After that, Kennison inexplicably found his lost talent and became an important part of one of the greatest offenses in NFL history. He had 1,760 yards in 2002-2003, then two straight 1,000-yard seasons in 2004-2005, and he's still good this season.

That's Michael Clayton's hope: to be Eddie Kennison. My guess is that, like Kennison, he will have to go to another team or two before he finally recaptures his early potential.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Now that Trent Green has been declared the starter again in Kansas City, this question seems timely. The numbers are slightly off since it was sent a few days ago.

David Bottom: Who do you think will get Damon Huard at the end of the season? He is an UFA. Tampa Bay would be a great fit since he is clearly an upgrade over what they have now. Your thoughts? and I don't see him staying in KC. In 12 starts he is now 9-3, which equates to a 12-win season, and even at 33 he hasn't taken a beating so I think he probably has 3 good years left. My original thought was that Tampa Bay would be a great fit since he is clearly an upgrade over what they have now. Your thoughts?

Mike Tanier: Damon Huard has earned the right to either be one of the league's highest paid backups or a custodial starter who keeps the seat warm for Brady Quinn or somebody. If the Bucs bring him in to start some games while Bruce Gradkowski gets more prepared, then that is a great move. If a contender like the Patriots grabs him for insurance, great move.

If some team appoints him the starter and expects him to lead them to the playoffs, they will discover that they've acquired a player somewhere between Jon Kitna and Brad Johnson.

Michael David Smith disagrees and if you scroll down to the Kansas City comments in this week's Audibles at the Line, you'll find a bit of a debate about Huard. 

Post by Mike Tanier 

Each week, the Football Outsiders staff e-mails one another with updates about Sunday's games. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"I think it's amazing that Joey Harrington threw 62 passes and Chris Chambers had TWO catches."

"Nice to see Ronde Barber clinch his Pro Bowl bid today. What I liked about the two touchdowns was that one was done with guile and one was done with physical skill. "

"I would rather see Donovan McNabb drained, puking, and throwing touchdowns than fresh and throwing easy interceptions."

"Can we check Matt Bryant for steroids?"

"The Jaguars only scored seven against the Texans because Byron Leftwich played like Drew Bledsoe on a bender."

"I really think Bengals tackle Willie Anderson should be named offensive player of the week for the job he did on Julius Peppers."

"The San Diego-Kansas City final score isn't really a big surprise. The halftime score was a big surprise, but not the final score. Losing by a field goal on the road isn't a huge upset."

"I think the two Steelers-Falcons games of the last five years might be the two strangest games of the last five years. Just so many different bizarre scenarios."

"I could read Bill Cowher's lips and he very clearly said after the false start, 'that's a bull---t call.' He's wrong. It was the right call."

"Oakland is beating Arizona, 17-0, in the second quarter. I'm off to buy stock in YouTube before the Dennis Green postgame press conference."

"I really think that the Washington offense with Brunell would be good enough if they had a defense even approaching last year's. Instead, it looks like the Jason Campbell era may be starting soon. "

"Ron Pitts after Chester Taylor’s 95-yard TD run – 'That’s probably the longest run Taylor’s had this season.' You think so, Detective? It's actually the longest run in Vikings history, and Steve Hutchinson was a factor as he walled off Peterson on the cutback. Meanwhile, Matt Hasselbeck'’s in the locker room with what we’re being told is a sprained MCL. Ladies and gentlemen, the value of elite guards has officially been established.

Buccaneers rookie quarterback Bruce Gradkowski put up some impressive numbers last week against the Saints: 20-of-31, 225 yards, two touchdowns, no picks, a fine DPAR of 5.3, an efficiency rating of 107.6. How does an unheralded rookie have such a fine day? Thanks to the NFL Replay, I can answer that question.

Jon Gruden did what you would expect a coach to do for a rookie passer: he developed a gameplan to protect him. The Bucs' first drive consisted of four Cadillac Williams runs and one short rollout pass to Michael Pittman before Gradkowski threw his first touchdown. Gradkowski made a perfect throw to Joey Galloway to give the Bucs a 7-0 lead, but Galloway was his first and only read on the pass. On the next drive, a deep pass to Galloway netted 23 yards, but the Bucs still leaned on Cadillac to provide most of their offense. The Bucs' third drive consisted of three handoffs and a punt.

By the Bucs' fourth possession, Gruden was trying to manufacture offense. A double-reverse to Michael Clayton netted 27 yards (and yes, it was a double reverse). Gradkowski gained six yards on a designed rollout run. A flat pass to Cadillac produced nine yards, but Gradkowski led Cadillac too far on the play, and the second-year running back needed a fingertip catch to haul in the ball. Two screen passes yielded zero yards, as Gradkowski had a hard time timing his throws properly. A ten-play drive ended with a punt.

In the third quarter, most of Gradkowski's passes were into the flats.When he did take a deep drop and looked downfield, Gradkowski revealed a flaw in his game: poor pocket presence. Charles Grant beat his blocker and forced a Gradkowski fumble on a play where the rookie had room to step up and avoid the pressure. The fumble led to a Saints touchdown. On a later drive, Gradkowski rushed a throw with a defensive end in his face, resulting in an incomplete pass. If Gradkowski side-stepped that defender, he would have had time to throw or room to run.

A long run by Cadillac gave the Bucs a scoring opportunity in the third quarter. Gruden's gameplan in the red zone was very conservative through most of the game, with Mike Alstott getting all of the goal-line action. When Gradkowski was finally given a chance to throw the ball, he did well. He completed a jump-ball fade pass to fellow rookie Maurice Stovall, but the play was called back due to a penalty. He then rifled a pass to tight end Alex Smith for a touchdown that counted. It was a tough pass, and Gradkowski threw a strike.

After Reggie Bush's punt return touchdown gave the Saints the lead, Gradkowski had just over four minutes to take the Bucs 80-yards. He failed to rally the team, but Gradkowski played well in that final drive, completing five passes, one of which was called back for a penalty. Two of those completions were "useless" plays: short throws to Cadillac in long-yardage situations. But one was a strike to Ike Hilliard for big yardage.

All told, Gradkowski's effort was impressive, yet typical. He demonstrated great arm strength, accuracy, and mobility. But his lack of pocket presence, his poor timing on several short passes, and his tendency to lock onto one receiver betrayed his status as an unprepared rookie. Gruden will continue to disguise Gradkowski's weaknesses by running the ball and using trick plays to generate big plays. He'll design lots of bootlegs to make use of Gradkowski's speed. But the more film defenses get of the rookie, the more he will struggle. Gradkowski won't lead the Bucs into playoff contention, but he can prove over the next few months that he has a future as an NFL starter.