The Colts finally made the Super Bowl for a number of reasons. One of the major changes is one receiving very little press in the lead-up to the Super Bowl: the improvement of Peyton Manning. He greatly improved his mobility inside the pocket allowing the Colts to change the emphasis of their offense.

The change was subtle, as the Colts still run the same formations and plays they have been running for years. A look at the season totals, however, show that their confidence in Manning's ability to stay upright has led to increase emphasis on getting their Pro Bowl wide receivers down the field. As a result, per our advanced metrics, Manning had arguably the best season of his career. (2004 was slightly more valuable, but the increased offensive environment of that year makes this year more impressive).

Manning has always been rarely sacked. Sure, the offensive line deserves some credit, but for years Manning has unloaded the ball almost immediately upon finishing his drop back. This year the Colts were more comfortable with giving the outside receivers an opportunity to get open down the field.

One asset of Manning is that when the pressure comes, he is willing to dump the ball off to his running backs. In fact, Manning has been much more willing to do that this year. Breaking down his pass breakdown is difficult because Dallas Clark plays wide receiver and tight end. Looking at three groups, starting wide receivers, other wide receivers or tight ends, and running backs, the change this year becomes obvious.

In 2005, Manning attempted 451 passes. 56% were intended for Harrison or Wayne; 32% went to other wide receivers or tight ends, and 12% went to running backs. This year, in 553 passes, only 52% went to the starting wideouts; 31% went to other, and 16% went to running backs.

Harrison and Wayne saw a lower percentage of passes, but the ones they saw were much more valuable. The two receivers ranked first and second in DPAR, measuring total value, and by DVOA which measures on a per play basis, they were first and second among receivers targeted 70 or more times.

You don't need our advanced stats to see the increased value of these two receivers. Each player had the second highest yards per catch of his career. This increase was largely attributable to consistent 10-20 yard gains rather than big plays.

Yards per catch

• Harrison: 14.0 in 2005, 14.4 in 2006
• Wayne: 12.7 in 2005, 15.2 in 2006

Percentage of catches getting first down

• Harrison: 72% in 2005, 82% in 2006
• Wayne: 65% in 2005, 84% in 2006

Percentage of catches over 20 yards

• Harrison: 17% in 2005, 19% in 2006
• Wayne: 13% in 2005, 21% in 2006

In 2004, Harrison and Wayne played opposite roles from 2005 with Harrison working underneath and Wayne down the field. This year was the first time that both of them consistently were pushing the defense. Manning's increased mobility in the pocket allows the receivers time to get open.

As a result, teams are almost forced to give safety help. Harrison and Wayne often run routes near the sideline. As a result, the middle of the field becomes wide open.

Consider the Patriots game, where Wayne and Harrison had seemingly poor games. Their impact was still felt. The Patriots ranked 4th in DVOA defending tight ends and extra wide receivers. With so much attention on the two receivers, Dallas Clark, Aaron Moorehead, Ben Utecht, and Bryan Fletcher combined for 11 catches for 197 yards.

The plays the receivers did make later opened up the field for Clark et al. Early in the game, the Colts tried to go deep several times, and New England cornerbacks made good plays in single coverage. With the cornerbacks playing the deep pass, the Colts shortened up the routes and started bleeding the Patriots.

Their first touchdown drive of the second half include four of five passes intended for Harrison or Wayne. Immediately on the next drive, Clark got open for his first big catch of the game.

To that point, Clark had caught only three of six passes intended for him for 37 yards. From this point forward, he caught three for four for over 90 yards.

A big run and a pass interference call on an attempt to Wayne set up the touchdown. Harrison beat Samuel for the two-point conversion and the game was tied. The next drive, the Patriots kept the receivers covered, and the linebackers deep to slow Clark. As a result, Manning hit the running backs on all his attempted passes.

On perhaps the most crucial play of the game, the Colts hit a 32-yard pass play to Fletcher. First, Manning had the confidence in his internal mobility to allow his tight end to work all the way to the sideline and up the field. Second, the attention paid to the receivers left Fletcher in man coverage by a linebacker with no safety help.

The Bears face the best passing offense in football. They have to get pressure on Manning, but unlike in past years, he does not unload the ball on the first sign of trouble. As a result, the receivers will be putting constant pressure on the cornerbacks and young safeties. Pinch to the outside, and Manning will wait for Clark to work down the middle. Drop everyone deep, and he will hit his backs underneath. The Colts have always been versatile this way, but the confidence to let plays develop longer makes them nearly impossible to defend.

Post by Ned Macey

Well, it’s official (ha!): the referee for Super Bowl XLI between the Colts and Bears will be Tony Corrente. As we did before the Conference Championship games, let’s break down penalty tendencies, FO-style, using our regular season penalty database. 

NOTE: Postseason crews are not the same ones assigned to the referee all season – these are “all-star” crews. Because of that, it’s not quite as easy to get a comprehensive picture, but the referee has more than enough effect on the game to make season tendencies worthwhile to analyze. For the record, Corrente’s crew consists of umpire Carl Paganelli and back judge Perry Paganelli – the first brothers ever to work a Super Bowl together, according to SuperBowl.com – along with head linesman George Hayward, line judge Ron Marinucci, field judge Jim Saracino, side judge John Parry, and replay assistant Mark Burns. 

What is Corrente’s role? Specifically, the referee in any game has jurisdiction over time, down and distance, announcing all penalties, counting the number of offensive players, signaling the back judge as to when to start the 25-second clock, and which receivers are eligible. Generally, he’s the overseer and the arbiter of all penalty disputes between crews – he’s the traffic cop. 

This will be Corrente’s first Super Bowl as a referee, though he was the alternate in Super Bowl XL. A veteran of the Big West and Western Athletic Conferences, the La Mirada, California resident officiated Alamo, Aloha and Rose Bowls before becoming an NFL back judge in 1995. At the beginning of the 1998 season, he was promoted to referee. Corrente has worked three postseason games, including the 2001 NFC Championship game between the Giants and Vikings. In the off-season, he teaches high school social sciences. 

In 2006, Corrente’s crew called more penalties than any other – 242 for 1,590 yards. The crew led the NFL in defensive holding (15) and was on the high side of just about every other common call. 

As for the two teams playing, the Bears and Colts were just about even in false starts (Chicago’s 22 to Indy’s 23), but the Bears were flagged for holding almost twice as often – 23 to 11. (Chicago opponents were also flagged for holding twice as often as Indianapolis opponents, so this could have more to do with the referees and less with the two teams themselves.) Other notable discrepancies: Chicago racked up seven more defensive offside calls (18-11), and neither team had many calls for defensive pass interference (Colts 4, Bears 2). Each team had three of the ever-nebulous illegal contact calls, and four roughing the passer penalties. Chicago totaled 133 penalties – fourth-most in the league behind the Vikings, Lions, Cardinals and Rams. Indianapolis’ 95 flags ranked seventh-fewest in the NFL. 

Bears games are messy affairs in general, as evidenced by the fact that teams playing them were penalized far more then any other – 154 to the 98 calls against teams playing the Colts. Again, this could be related to the teams themselves, or to the specific refs involved. Chicago’s defense precipitated a league-leading 31 false starts, one more than Minnesota’s. Surprisingly, Indy’s air attack caused only four defensive pass interference penalties and five illegal contact calls, a fact with which Colts team president Bill Polian is no doubt very familiar.

The final question regarding the officiating in this Super Bowl is how the crew will react, and how they may be asked to react, after the controversy surrounding Super Bowl XL. Bill Leavy’s crew was raked over the coals by the media right after the game, and the standard Mike Pereira damage control on the NFL Network’s Official Review show did little good outside of the Pittsburgh area. It took a surprising amount of time for the furor to die down. Will this crew ignore last year’s fallout and call ‘em as they see ‘em (which means calling them more often than usual) or will the common postseason refrain of “Let them play!” rule the day? 

Once again, keep your eye on the third team when Super Sunday rolls around.

Post by Doug Farrar