As free agency dies down, a lot of signings are a bit more under the radar, but one of them really drew my attention this week. The Seattle Seahawks signed 35-year-old tight end Marcus Pollard, formerly of the Colts and Lions. The contract terms were undisclosed, but we know there is some guaranteed money involved.

I know the Seahawks wanted to wash their hands of the Salty Senorita, Jerramy Stevens, and they lost out on the bidding for Daniel Graham. But seriously? This is their answer at tight end?

Pollard told Seattle reporters that he doesn't have the usual wear and tear of a 35-year-old football player. The main reason? He didn't play college football; like Antonio Gates, he was a power forward on the basketball team in college. That's less wear and tear? Last time I checked, power forwards did a good amount of ####ing to get those rebounds. It's not like being a running back, but it isn't ballet either.

Do you realize how many tight ends in NFL history had good seasons at age 35? Two. That's it. Shannon Sharpe and Wesley Walls. Here's the entire list -- the ENTIRE LIST -- of 35-year-old tight ends who caught at least five passes in a season since 1978, with catches, yards, and touchdowns:

• Shannon Sharpe, 2003 Broncos (62-770-8)
  
• Wesley Walls, 2001 Panthers (43, 452, 5)
• Jimmie Giles, 1989 Eagles (16, 225, 2)
• Bob Tucker, 1980 Vikings (15, 173, 1)
• Pete Metzelaars, 1995 Panthers (20, 171, 3)
• Russ Francis, 1988 Patriots (11, 161, 0)
• Ed West, 1996 Eagles (8, 91, 0)
• Mickey Shuler, 1991 Eagles (6, 91, 0)
• Don Warren, 1991 Redskins (5, 51, 0)
• Rodney Holman, 1995 Lions (5, 35, 0)

 

That's it, folks. In fact, I only have eight other 35-year-old tight ends in my database, and they were basically long snappers (Mike Bartrum, Dave Moore) or glorified extra tackles (Brian Kozlowski).

I would accept the signing if we were talking about signing a 35-year-old Tony Gonzalez. But Pollard had only 12 catches for 100 yards last year and has never been known as a strong blocker. Maybe I'm wrong, and Pollard really has a ton left in the tank, but I wouldn't want to bet any guaranteed money on that.

By the way, I should point out that Pollard is the second 35-year-old tight end signed to a free agent contract this off-season. The other one is Kyle Brady, but frankly, the Patriots don't mind if 35-year-old tight ends rarely catch more than a handful of passes, because they only plan on throwing to him a handful of times. He's in there to block; Ben Watson and David Thomas are the tight ends who will run patterns. Still, Brady isn't the world's best bet to stay healthy and strong either.

Post by Aaron Schatz

 

I was thinking about the strange case of Michael Turner. How many backup running backs average six yards per carry over three seasons? (5.99, to be precise.) San Diego will give their restricted free agent a sweet tender, so teams that want Turner have to give up either a first-round pick or a first and a third. Part of the question is what happens to Turner going forward, so I thought I would look for similar players using FO similarity scores.

Looking at a three-year span, one player stands out, far ahead of everyone else:

• 849: Stump Mitchell, STL (1981-1983)
• 807: Bill Johnson, CIN (1985-1987)
• 799: Hokie Gajan, NO (1982-1984)
• 781: Ron Rivers, DET (1996-1998)
• 780: Booker Russell, SD (1978-1980)
• 779: Najeh Davenport, GB (2002-2004)
• 778: Barry Redden, LA RAMS (1982-1984)

Everyone else is below 770.

Mitchell provides a fascinating look at what life might be like for Michael Turner if free agency did not exist. Like Turner, he was drafted by a team that already had one of the league's top running backs, Ottis Anderson. But unlike Turner, there was no threat that he would go anywhere, in restricted OR unrestricted free agency. He kept plugging along with 5.5 yards per carry each year, along with play on special teams. In his fourth season, 1984, he became a receiving threat, with more catches, yards, and touchdowns receiving than in his first three seasons combined.

Anderson started having some injury issues, so Mitchell's playing time finally went up in 1985. He gained 1,000 yards with just 183 carries, 5.5 yards per carry, with seven touchdowns rushing and another three receiving. In 1986, he had 174 carries and played well again, although he averaged a career-low (to that point) 4.6 yards per carry. For that to be a career-low, well, that shows you how good he was through 1986. By this point, he was sharing the job with Earl Ferrell rather than Anderson. 1987 was his career high, 203 carries, but actually his worst season, just 3.8 yards per carry. He rebounded with another good year as a part-timer in 1988, played a handful of games in 1989, and that was that. He's now the running backs coach in Seattle, where he's partly responsible for Shaun Alexander's MVP season.

Bill Johnson's third year is the strike year and he never played again, the strike means that's probably not worth looking at.

Hokie Gajan also had three great seasons but in the fourth year had injury problems. He also never played again, but that clearly was not an issue of talent. He's now the Saints' radio color guy.

Here's a look at two-year similarities:

• 839: Mitchell, 1982-1983
• 810: Charlie Garner, PHI, 1995-1996
• 803: Redden, 1983-1984
• 802: Russell, 1978-1979
• 798: Gajan, 1983-1984
  
• 795: Richard Huntley, PIT, 1998-1999
• 794: Maurice Morris, SEA, 2002-2003
• 786: LaMont Jordan, NYJ, 2003-2004

Once again, Mitchell is ahead of everyone else. If you are Michael Turner's agent, you like that Charlie Garner similarity second. We know Garner now as a pass-catching back, but he actually had only 32 catches in his first three seasons, and he averaged 5.4 and 5.2 yards per carry in 1995 and 1996. When he finally moved to San Francisco in 1999, he became a starter and one of the best backs in the league. LaMont Jordan also acquitted himself well once he got a starting job, especially considering the quality of the Oakland line. Huntley went to Carolina for a year, played well, but that was the end of his career.

All in all, I think this is another piece of evidence that Turner would be excellent as a starting back somewhere other than San Diego. Will that happen? Probably not this year, but I bet it happens in 2008. Maybe, if Shaun Alexander has more injury problems, Turner can go off to Seattle and be coached by Stump Mitchell.

Post by Aaron Schatz 

Robbie Tobeck was an undersized defensive tackle at Washington State in the early 1990s. Unlike his roommate, Drew Bledsoe, Tobeck wasn't much of a prospect. One day, his line coach called him and asked him to consider a position change. Tobeck didn't exactly leap at the opportunity.

"What (defensive line coach Del White) didn't realize," Tobeck said in a 1995 interview, "was that I really didn't like him very much. As a defensive player, I had always viewed offensive linemen as the bottom of the food chain. But I was too small to be playing (defensive) tackle at that level and I knew there was no chance of an NFL future if I stayed there. Mentally, I didn't have that 'eat-raw-meat' mindset of a defensive lineman. So here's White in my ear, telling me, 'Now you don't want to do this, son.' And in my head, I'm thinking, 'Hmmm, a chance to get away from a coach I don't get along with and to play a position where I might at least have an outside shot at the pros?' It sounded pretty good to me."

Tobeck switched to guard, and he signed with the Falcons as a free agent after leaving college. He spent a season on the practice squad and another on the bench. When incumbent left guard David Richards held out at the start of Falcons camp in 1995, Tobeck was penciled in as the starter. He played every offensive snap that season, most of them at guard, a few at center in place of injured Roman Fortin. He signed a long-term contract with the Falcons in 1996 and moved to center full-time in 1998. He started 78 regular season games for the Falcons, plus two playoff games and a Super Bowl.

Tobeck signed with the Seahawks in 2000 but missed most of that season with a knee injury. He wouldn't miss another game for five years. He earned a reputation as a vocal leader in the locker room, and as a prankster who kept his teammates loose. He earned the nickname "The Instigator." He was the guy who would handcuff rookies to their beds in training camp, the guy who poured coyote urine all over Trent Dilfer's camp dorm room for a laugh.

But on the field, he was all business. He became a free agent in 2004, and the Browns and Cowboys expressed interest in signing him. The Seahawks had recently drafted Chris Spencer, so Tobeck's starting job was in jeopardy. But he took a pay cut and stayed in Seattle. "This is home for me. I’m not leaving home. Not at this point in my career," he said at the time. His loyalty was rewarded with another Super Bowl appearance and the only Pro Bowl selection of his career.

Tobeck retired quietly after Sunday's loss to the Bears. He missed much of this season with injuries, and Spencer has clearly supplanted his soon-to-be-37 year old mentor. "I feel fortunate and really blessed to be able to play this game and live a childhood dream out for 14 years - and really, still be a kid a little bit," Tobeck said on Sunday. "In some ways, it will be easier for me," Matt Hasselbeck said when he heard the news. "That's because I am always the butt of his jokes."

Tobeck was never a great player. But he was a very good one who started two Super Bowls and dozens of regular season games. He was never a flavor of the month or a product of hype, overrated or underrated or even rated. But he helped teams win, earned every check he received, and left the game quietly and gracefully while we were all screaming about post-game celebrations and controversial fourth down punts.

Good luck, Mr. Instigator.

post by Mike Tanier

Here's what the FO staff was talking about during the games on Saturday and Sunday:

"Man, this is making me nostalgic for the days before Jamal Lewis got all used up, when he was really good and I didn't make fun of him all the time."

"Does Indy ever go max protect? Today might be a good day for it."

"When did Marty Schottenheimer become head coach of the Ravens? The Baltimore offense is exhibiting every kind of conservative look that makes people criticize Martyball. Sitting on the ball at the end of the half was just one of many examples."

"Peyton Manning has discovered mobility."

"I've watched 95% of the Colts games for the past four years, and I can't remember seeing a flea flicker."

"Well, for a second there, I thought Brian Billick had his balls reattached, but he changed his mind and punted."

"The only question about the Colts defense playing well is, if they could play like this, WHY DIDN'T THEY FOR THE ENTIRE REGULAR SEASON?"

"This is the best tackling, hardest hitting Colts defense I've seen this year. I think they've found their ... SWAGGER."

"Hmmm...a moronic holding call by Bill Leavy's crew early in the fourth quarter that pretty much killed a huge drive? In the postseason? I've never seen THAT before!"

"This game reminds me of last year's Colts-Steelers playoff game. The underdog comes in, pretty much controls the game, and pulls out the win. And you know the common link? Dan Dierdorf. That's right, if you're an underdog playoff team playing in the AFC Divisional game, you might want to that request Dierdorf does the game."

"Reggie Bush. I mean, wow. He's not supposed to be able to do that in the NFL."

"This is a great game between two very good teams."

"Can anyone think of a player who's changed his style as dramatically as Deuce McAllister? He's a totally different back. Maybe someone should tear DeShaun Foster's ACL."

"Great response by the Saints defense after the Reggie Bush turnover. Just when you think everyone in the stadium was probably thinking, 'oh,that's right, we're the Saints' they come up with a stop"

"It came down to that second-and-1. The Eagles should have been able to push that in for a touchdown, and they couldn't. The Saints are just an amazing story. I think they're going to the Super Bowl."

"Andy Reid made a big mistake punting. The defense was tired. They had a better chance of making that fourth-and-15 than they did of keeping the Saints from a first down AND then scoring in the final 40 seconds or whatever would be left after that."

"As long as the Seahawks take advantage of every possible Bears mistake, they have a chance."

"In my head, I'm hearing Stu Nahan say, 'I’ve got to give that round to Balboa.' The third quarter has been Seattle's.

"Every time the Seahawks get a good run from Alexander, they go back to him and get stuffed. I'd call that a tendency, Mr. Holmgren!"

"Hell of a kick by Robbie Gould."

"Did the Chargers stop blitzing on that touchdown drive at the end of the half? They couldn't get any pressure, and it seemed like their pass rush was a lot less diverse and creative than the rest of the half."

Why did Marty go for it on fourth-and-11 from the 30? I believe in going for it on fourth but 11? You spent a third round pick on Nate Kaeding and don't feel you can trust him from 48 yards?

"The Chargers receivers pretty much suck today."

"Tom Brady is awful today. Just terrible. He threw the second INT off his back foot, and he just missed a wide open Ben Watson. He's getting time to throw and he just looks awful."

"Clutch interception by Brady."

"Yep. Belichick is a genius for calling the pick-and-fumble on 4th-and-5. And Schottenheimer's a choke artist for not anticipating it"

"This game is amazing. It really feels like the Chargers have annihilated the Patriots, yet as I write this it's a two-point conversion away from being tied."

"What can you say about Stephen Gostkowski? He's money in the playoffs."

Read more at FootballOutsiders.com. 

post by Mike Tanier

Before this weekend's playoff games, let's take one more look at the (incomplete) Football Outsiders game charting data. Again: Data incomplete, cleaning not finished, do not take as gospel, etc.

One thing we ask people to mark down is the number of pass rushers and blockers on any pass play (including scrambles). We learned last year that teams send an extra pass rusher so often than five doesn't really count as a blitz anymore. Six or more is when the defense is giving up on coverage to get to the quarterback.

Here's the kooky thing: the teams we have listed as blitzing the most this year are completely different from the teams we have listed as blitzing the most in 2005. Perhaps I'm measuring something differently, or this is an issue with the incomplete data. But last year's top blitzing teams were Denver, New England, and Philadelphia. Based on the data I have here, those defenses rank 10th, 9th, and 22nd this year, respectively. Here's where the eight remaining teams all stand, based on the percentage of pass plays (scrambles or passes) where the defense sent six or more pass rushers:

• 9. Philadelphia (11%)
• 11. Baltimore (11%)
• 15. Chicago (10%)
• 22. New England (7%)
• 24. New Orleans (6%)
• 25. Seattle (6%)
• 27. San Diego (5%)
• 32. Indianapolis (3%)

The Colts were last in 2005 as well. Tony Dungy just doesn't blitz. We only counted three blitzes by the Colts in 2005, total. This year we've got 10 in our incomplete data, which means Indy's blitz rate more than tripled and the Colts are still last in the league.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Here's what we were talking about at Football Outsiders over the Wild Card weekend:

"This Colts first drive has been all runs and checkdowns. Apparently, the Colts' offensive plan is to keep their own defense off the field."

"Herm Edwards might be the worst in-game manager in all of sports."

"If it weren't for the two penalties on the punt return team, I'd say the Colts' defense and special teams have been entirely replaced by actual professional football players."

"My god, is Ty Law a lucky mofo."

"What's up with all these drops? Are they using the new NBA ball or something?"

"OK, this was funny and all, but does the real Chiefs-Colts game start after halftime?"

"It is 6:32 PM Eastern time. The Chiefs have their first first down."

"The long Indianapolis third-quarter drive that ended with the Joseph Addai touchdown run - 12 plays, 89 yards and seven minutes off the clock - was a masterpiece of consistent, measured playcalling. The Colts saw that gasping defense, and they went with the Long, Slow Goodbye. Just great football."

"I don't know if its the Colts defense suddenly changing into Mr Hyde. I don't know if its the absolute inability of Herm Edwards to change a plan that clearly wasn't working. But this was a stunning game."

"Why is Kelly Jennings solo on Owens? He weights about 175 pounds and isn't a good tackler."

"Why is Pete Hunter solo on Terry Glenn? Dude, it isn't like the Seahawks have choices right now."

"Let's start a pool... when will Tony Romo finally throw a pass above a guy's ankles?"

"Did Seattle just call a DRAW TO THE FULLBACK on third-and-7 in the red zone? Who thought that one up?"

"The two fourth-down conversions on Seattle's first touchdown drive were nice flashbacks to the past. Of course, there's nothing line a 93-yard punt return touchdown on the next play to kill that momentum!"

"That was one of the goofiest defensive plays I've ever seen. Catch, fumble, but the ball went out of bounds in the air before Lofa Tatupu batted it back in."

"This is going to be the longest replay challenge in the history of replay challenges."

"This is the craziest #### game I've ever seen!"

"Well, it's hard to say that the same week as that Boise State game. A couple weird plays are nothing compared to that thing."

"As a statistical analyst, it is not my job, nor is it my forte, to psychoanalyze Tony Romo and figure out what this mistake will mean for the rest of his career. However, this will not stop many, many writers and talking heads from doing just that over the next few days."

"Psychoanalyze Romo? Who would do such a thing? 'Hey, Carrie's man, what's your game, boy? Can anybody play?'"

"Chad Pennington surprises me with his arm strength when he throws downfield."

"I'm surprised that the Pats sideline is in the sun to the point that Bill Belichick is continuously shielding his eyes with his arm. (I guess he can't afford a visor to go with his hoodie.) This seems like exactly the sort of detail Belichick would have micromanaged."

"Watching Belichick and Mangini trying to outsmart each other is kinda like two Mathletes having a nerd off while everybody else in junior high is as the dance."

"Shawne Merriman is on national TV at halftime, and he can't put on a shirt? He's either wearing a wifebeater, suspenders, or a pair of overalls without a shirt, like the big guy from the original Final Fight."

"Kickoff distance is one of those things that nobody notices without looking at the numbers first, but the difference between Steve Gostkowski and Mike Nugent has been mind-bogglingly obvious this week."

"I don't agree at all with what Phil Simms just said: 'You look at this 37-16 score and it's misleading.' The Pats pretty much dominated this game. The Jets had a handful of good drives, but this was basically the Patriots' game all day. At halftime when it was 17-10, they commented that all the stats (16-7 first downs, for example) showed that the Patriots were dominating, and that was right. The score just started to reflect that by the end."

"Cris Collinsworth last night: 'Kevin Gilbride has changed the outlook on offense; they run Tiki Barber and they throw the ball long.' Yeah sure, that's not at all what the Giants offensive game plan looked like for all of 2005 and 2006 prior to last week.

"Jared Lorenzen: The unholy offspring of Michael Vick and Refrigerator Perry."

"Somebody needs to get the Giants offensive line some anti-anxiety medicine or something."

"Koy Detmer earns his paycheck with two tough holds on field goals on a rainy day. Koy for MVP."

"The only person who was playing with any sort of urgency in that game was Tiki Barber. The performance was entirely indistinguishable from any other Giants game this season, and I'd like to think that they'd focus more and play better. I'm normally not inclined to blame a performance on a coach, but this team isn't going to get any better with Coughlin at the helm. They need a change."

"Seeing Jeremy Shockey stretching for first downs with his helmet knocked off, taking off Coughlin's headphones to talk to him... he seemed to be playing with urgency. And you've got to give Plaxico Burress credit for some good receptions there. On the other hand, when your tight end is coming up to your head coach and just taking off his headphones to talk to him, and your offensive line then false starts 37 times, yeah, I don't think the discipline thing is working."

"I think the Giants were playing hard out there, but you don't just flip a switch and acquire intensity. If you have a month of the season where everyone is playing like ####, yapping in the media, and tuning out the coach, then you have dozens of practices that are just shot to hell. Guys can fly around on Sunday and hit hard and yell and scream, but football requires precision and controlled aggression. The Giants have been an imprecise team all year."

Read more in Audibles at the Line on FootballOutsiders.com.
 

post by Mike Tanier

So, we've got most of Weeks 1-14 now compiled in our game charting project, and four very important games to analyze, so I thought perhaps I would go through and see what the charting data says about the wild card weekend games. Standard caveats, of course: this data is unofficial, compiled by volunteers, we're missing some games, and it is hard to always see who was in coverage when using TV tape.

Kansas City at Indianapolis

Last year our stats said that Jason David made a successful play on a higher percentage of passes than Nick Harper, but when he gave up a completion, it went for more yards. This year, their stats are virtually identical in every way. The only difference is that the average pass David faces is 13 yards in the air, the average pass for Harper just 10 yards in the air.

("Made a successful play" does not mean just an incomplete or interception; it also applies to a complete pass that does not gain 45% of yards on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third down.)

Indy had 32 passes marked "Hole in Zone," more than any other team. That's 10.3% of the total charted passes marked with a defender of some sort. The second-highest team was Jacksonville (7.2%).

KC had only 6 passes marked Hole in Zone, which makes sense, since Gunther Cunningham loves man coverage. Unfortunately, he's got just one guy who can pull it off. For two years now, the game charting has said that Ty Law is now a subpar cornerback. We've got 51 passes targeted at Ty Law, averaging 9.5 yards per pass. We've got just 32 targeted at Patrick Surtain, averaging 6.2 yards per pass -- even though the average pass at Surtain actually traveled slightly longer in the air (10.5 yards to 10.1 yards). We've got almost as many passes targeted at Lenny Walls, the nickel back, as we do targeted at Surtain.

Dallas at Seattle

We covered this one a couple weeks ago. The numbers on the Dallas cornerbacks are fairly similar and all worse than last year, but there are many more passes thrown at Anthony Henry than thrown at Terrance Newman. And our charting doesn't include most of the recent period where the Dallas pass defense imploded.

Seattle numbers are pretty worthless given all the injuries. Jordan Babineaux's numbers sucked as a cornerback last year. There's going to be a LOT of passing in this game.

New York Jets at New England

Asante Samuel is your lord and master. He allowed just 4.7 yards per pass, which is the lowest of any cornerback in the league with at least 30 charted passes except for R.W. McQuarters. Except the average pass against McQuarters was FIVE YARDS SHORTER than the average pass against Samuel, and we charted nearly twice as many passes against Samuel because McQuarters is a nickel back. Samuel also had a high 61% stop rate (stopping plays short of success). Ellis Hobbs and Chad Scott had similar, average stats, which is strange because it seemed like Scott was burned constantly. Hobbs was one of the best guys in the league in these stats last year but struggled with injuries in 2006.

Usually the nickel back faces shorter passes, because he's facing guys trying to convert third downs, but David Barrett of New York faced an average pass that went 15 yards in the air, compared to just 10 for starters Andre Dyson and Justin Miller. Miller's stats were pathetic as a rookie but much better this year. Dyson and Miller allowed the same average yards per pass (7.7) but Dyson was successful against just 40% of passes, Miller against 55% of passes. Barrett had excellent numbers, but I'm guessing that's a sample size fluke caused by a few overthrown bombs.

New York Giants at Philadelphia

If the charting numbers are to be believed, the safeties in New York are horrible. Kevin Dockery's 12 yards per pass was #1 among all players with at least 30 charted passes. Will Demps' 9.8 is eighth. Both had stop rate of 36%, the only defensive back worse than that was Travis Fisher of St. Louis.

As for the cornerbacks, as mentioned above, R.W. McQuarters comes out with great stats, which is really weird and completely goes against the subjective view of my eyes any time I watched the Giants. Corey Webster was thrown at more often than Sam Madison, giving up slightly more yards per pass with a slightly lower stop rate.

Last year in Philly, Sheldon Brown and Roderick Hood both ranked among the best in the league while an injured Lito Sheppard was near the bottom. This year, Hood was the injured corner with the subpar stats, and Sheppard's stats were near the top of the league. Injuries are bad, huh? Anyway, Sheppard had a stop rate of 62%, one of the best in the league, and allowed just 5.4 yards per pass, and that doesn't even take into account all his timely interceptions. Brown had a stop rate of 57% and allowed 8.6 yards per charted pass (in his defense, he faced longer passes on average). Hood's stats don't mean much since we're missing the recent weeks where he was actually healthy.

Post by Aaron Schatz

So, I was playing around with the game charting data, and I decided to check out some of the stats that we included in Pro Football Prospectus 2006, to see if they stayed consistent this year. One of the biggest things in the charting is yards after catch -- STATS Inc. keeps that, but they really don't do a good job of making it public, so we wanted our own numbers. We did those not just for wide receivers, but also for tight ends, running backs -- and quarterbacks, to see who got the most extra yardage from hitting receivers in stride, throwing screens, or having Santana Moss on their team.

Comparing the two seasons was pretty interesting. (Actually, we're talking about the 2005 season compared to an incomplete sample from the first 13 weeks of the 2006 season, but I digress.) It's surprising how few quarterbacks played a significant amount of time on the same team, in the same system, in both 2005 and 2006. 30 quarterbacks had at least 80 charted passes in 2005 and at least 50 charted (so far) passes in 2006. But seven are now on different teams, and five (counting Mark Brunell) are in new offensive systems this year. Both of those could be big reasons why YAC would change.

At first glance, it doesn't look like quarterback YAC has a lot of correlation from one year to the next, but actually, the correlation coefficient is .33 for all the quarterbacks, and .41 for the quarterbacks who are on the same team as last year (no matter if the coaching staff changed or not). For the NFL, that's reasonably consistent.

Last year's top quarterback in YAC was Jake Delhomme, and he's fallen to the middle of the pack this year. (No duh, since Steve Smith hasn't been as explosive or used as much as last year.) But last year's number two, Donovan McNabb, is this year's top quarterback in YAC, by far: 8.0 yards per completion. Delhomme was at 6.1 last year, and nobody is above 6.7 in our incomplete sample of 2006.

Here's the remarkable stat for people who think Jeff Garcia is actually better than Donovan McNabb in that Philadelphia offense: Garcia is last this year with just 3.8 yards after catch. In the same offense, with the same receivers. It sure doesn't look like they're calling the plays differently -- the Eagles still throw bombs and hit Westbrook on screens -- but something is clearly different.

The rest of this year's top five: Daunte Culpepper, David Garrard, Mark Brunell, and Brett Favre. Brunell was third last year, but Garrard was near the bottom of the YAC rankings last year. That's an overall change in the Jacksonville offense, I think -- Garrard went from 43rd to third, and Leftwich went from 33rd to eighth.

Tom Brady was one of last year's leaders, but he's middle of the pack this year with the New England "seriously, who are these guys" wide receiver plan.

Another same team, different offensive philosophy: Culpepper was second this year and Joey Harrington is third from the bottom. The bottom five: Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Joey Harrington, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair. All of those guys were middle of the pack in 2005 except Hasselbeck -- with a lot of specific routes to get first downs, and running backs who suck at receiving, Hasselbeck is just not going to get YAC.

There are a lot of other guys who are near the bottom in YAC both years, though -- they just aren't bottom FIVE this season. That includes Charlie Frye, Carson Palmer (surprising, I think), and Michael Vick.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Stewart Glickman: My Seahawks are 8-4, yet rank a mediocre 21st in DVOA. However I am not here to complain about the DVOA ranking...god knows they could just as easily be 4-8 if they had simply had Vanderjagt as their kicker instead of Josh Brown. No, my question is this... in the history of DVOA, are the Seahawks heading towards the worst overall DVOA of any division winner? If it makes the calculations easier, how about we assume the Hawks win a total of 10 games this year. If DVOA didn't budge from its current level, would they be the worst 10-win team?

Aaron Schatz: Actually, it's even worse -- since this e-mail was written, the Seahawks lost to Arizona and will now rank 24th total season, 26th weighted (FOX version) when the new ratings come out tonight.

Only three teams have won 10+ games with a DVOA rating below zero:

2000 Vikings (11-5): -2.5% DVOA, 21st
2002 Colts (10-6): -2.0% DVOA, 19th
2004 Falcons (11-5): -2.7% DVOA, 17th

The 2000 Vikings are one of the most inexplicable teams in DVOA -- I'm convinced that at some point, some upgrade to the system will really improve their ranking because it makes very little sense. Frankly, the same can be said for the 2002 Colts. Then again, it is worth noting that these two teams got pasted in the playoffs by identical 41-0 scores -- and both lost to New York teams.

The 2004 Falcons are a product of the incredible disparity between the AFC and NFC that season. The only NFC team with a DVOA above 2.3% was Philadelphia. The Falcons are also a great argument for DVOA as a consistent measure, since they were 8-8 the following year and again ranked 17th.

The worst DVOA by a division winner since 1997 was... -5.0% by the 2004 Seahawks (9-7). And, of course, in the playoffs the Seahawks lost to the team that has the worst DVOA by a playoff team of any kind: the 2004 St. Louis Rams, who were a mind-blowing 30th in DVOA with a rating of - 23.0%. The four NFC West teams ranked 20 (Seattle), 29 (Arizona), 30 (St. Louis), and 32 (San Francisco). As of this week, for the full year, they rank 24 (Seattle), 26 (St. Louis), 28 (Arizona), and 31 (San Francisco). It's all just a little bit of history repeating.

Post by Aaron Schatz

It's time again for our weekly roundup of Sunday's action. Here's what the Football Outsiders staff was talking about this week:

"Jacksonville's first play from scrimmage against the Colts was a 76-yard Fred Taylor run. Their second play was an 18-yard run by Maurice Jones-Drew. Two rushing plays, 94 yards, one minute off the clock, touchdown. That kind of run defense is how you lose in the first round of the playoffs."

"The announcers are talking about what a fine job Brad Johnson is doing managing the game. There are approximately 100 quarterbacks on NFL rosters, and I think it's safe to say every one of them would do a fine job managing the game against the Lions' defense."

"The amazing thing about the Colts is how they can be simultaneously great and terrible. On the one hand, every play I've seen so far, the Jags have been physically manhandling them. On the other hand, they've still got a 10-7 lead midway through the second quarter on the road against a good team."

"After watching Jeff Garcia the last two weeks I'm convinced he was just half-assing it in Cleveland and Detroit. He just threw a bomb to Reggie Brown and hit him right in stride, then he followed that up a few plays later with a great 4-yard touchdown pass to Stallworth. Jeff Freakin' Garcia.

"Kansas City's last three possessions: interception, Trent Green fumble, interception. Both interceptions by Ed Reed, just hanging out in center field."

"Holy ####! Vince Wilfork just got called for a personal foul because Joey Harrington tripped over him while he was lying on the ground."

"The Chiefs are now walking off the field at halftime -- at Arrowhead -- to a resounding host of boos."

"I think there are more Giants fans in Carolina than Panthers fans."

"The Colts look like a bad MAC team playing Michigan."

"With hot Tennessee and schizophrenic Jacksonville on the schedule still, the Patriots are actually in danger of blowing the division to the Jets. I'm in shock at the very thought."

"Jason Taylor is without question the Defensive Player of the Year."

"Vince Young is just plain awesome. When he gets a little more seasoning, he's going to be scary good."

"We love Arizona safety Adrian Wilson, and he just recovered a Shaun Alexander fumble caused by a perfect Robert Griffith hit. The subsequent Edgerrin James rushing touchdown gets an assist from Seattle's continued enrollment in the Indianapolis School of Tackling."

"Shanahan deserves Goat of the Century for the way he handled his quarterbacks this year. Only in the world where Super Bowls are all that matter is this decision not the worst we've seen since the Rob Johnson/Doug Flutie debacle in Buffalo. Ok, you wouldn't have won a Super Bowl with Jake Plummer, but now you're going to miss the playoffs and ruin your team and your fan base's confidence in Jay Cutler."

"Cutler looks like he's about 15. The kid who mows my lawn looks older than he does."

"Fourth-and-20 for the ball game in Arizona, Matt Hasselbeck throws a 19-yard pass to Deion Branch. Branch catches it with about three yards to go, and if he pushes straight forward, I think he has it. But he tries to go sideways to get around the guy in front of him and it costs him. Can we all guess which Arizona defensive back made the game-ending tackle? Our man Adrian Wilson."

Read more at FootballOutsiders.com.

post by Mike Tanier

Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"Seven minutes to go in the first quarter: two Vick passes, two Crumpler drops."

"I think the Titans have a very good chance of pulling off an upset, though I would rather that they never win a game with the light blue uni-color uniforms. Some decisions just shouldn't be rewarded."

"This is what it is to be a Lions fan: They're up 7-3 and have first-and-goal inside the 5. Do they score? Nope. Ball squirts out of Kevin Jones' hand, Patriots pounce on it."

"Props where props are due: On third-and-5, Vick play-actions, and hits Crumpler in stride for a 20-plus yard gain. Great throw, great catch."

"Wow. In the first half, Rex Grossman completed 3 of 9 passes for 22 yards and 2 picks. That, my friends, is a quarterback rating of 2.8."

"After trailing 14-0, the Falcons are now leading 17-14. The last TD resulted from Falcons' DL Chauncy Davis intercepting a Jason Campbell pass and returning it to the Atlanta 25-yard line. Two plays later, Vick gets time and throws a laser to Michael Jenkins who inexplicably doesn't drop it. By the way, the best thing about the Davis pick was that Grady Jackson was right next to him when he made the play and proceed to take two steps before seemingly saying, 'Look, you know I'm not going to run downfield and block, and I know I'm not going to run downfield and block, so let's stop kidding ourselves right now.' Jackson stopped running."

"Halfway through the third quarter, Grossman has three more incompletions and another pick. His rating is now the Big Blutarsky. Take it, Dean Wormer: 'Zero-point-ZERO. ' Right now, I'm picturing Grossman with a pencil in each nostril."

"The Steelers are way down the depth chart at WR. For example, on the last play Ben Roethlisberger threw a pass to Sean Morey and it was broken up by ... Phillip Buchanon. This is sad on so many levels."

"The Giants socks should have been hung by the chimney with care."

"At what point in discussing the problems of the Denver offense will somebody finally say the words 'Matt Lepsis'"?

"Bootlegs, scrambles, incomplete passes ... golly, Denver sure looks different tonight."

"I swear, they should just put it right on the ball: THIS IS AN OFFICIAL NFL FOOTBALL. DO NOT THROW THIS ANYWHERE NEAR CHAMP BAILEY."

"Okay, Seahawks fans - your team is 8-4 and your kicker is your MVP. You'll take it, right?"

For more, check out Audibles at the Line at Football Outsiders.

post by Mike Tanier

Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"Kansas City's first drive of the game: 10 rushes for 73 yards, one pass for three yards, finished off with a rushing touchdown. Welcome back, Trent Green!"

"Favre out. McNabb out. Bad day for a lot of fantasy teams."

"I know that the Patriots have injuries in the secondary, but really, enough with the Troy Brown thing. That was supposed to be for emergencies only. He has two penalties so far as a defensive back this year, and at one point he was in man coverage on Donald Driver."

"There is a rumor circulating in Philly that the boys were out a little late last night celebrating Donovan McNabb's birthday. They played like they were hung over today."

"Peyton Manning is getting no protection at all."

"Does Mike Nolan fidget this much when he's not wearing a suit?"

"The Seahawks defense just seems to have skipped tackling school this week."

"Now that the Lions are getting their #### kicked by Arizona, can anyone think of any plausible reason that Matt Millen should still have a job?"

"There's no way the Cowboys do not cut Vanderjagt this week."

"Would you like to know who's playing receiver for the Lions now? Josh McCown. Seriously. Josh McCown. Matt Millen spent a Top 10 pick on Mike Williams, and now he can't beat out a quarterback for playing time at wide receiver. And not a particularly fast quarterback, either."

"Now we can go back to talking about the Colts with sanity. We can talk about what they really are: a great offense, a bad defense, atrocious special teams, one of the top teams in the NFL but not a Super Bowl favorite."

"Conversation overheard at NBC: 'Can we un-flex Philly at Indianapolis and go back to Chicago at New England instead?'"

"It turns out that if you have LaDainian Tomlinson on your team, there may be no such thing as a hole too deep. This also goes for my fantasy team, which had a terrible week until about ten minutes ago."

"Igor Olshansky is a buffoon, but even more so, Tom Nalen is a ####."

For more, check out Audibles at the Line at Football Outsiders.

post by Mike Tanier

Kraig: When will DVOA ease up on the 6-3 Seahawks? What are they, now, 21st after beating the 16th-ranked Rams twice? And the Rams are on a 4-game losing streak. Lopsided losses coupled with close wins sure makes the ranking look weird in their case.

Aaron Schatz: I'm surprised by Seattle's low ranking as well, but it is easy enough to go through the season week-by-week and figure out why our DVOA ratings are so down on them.

Games with negative DVOA

• Week 1: SEA 9, DET 6: Close win over bad opponent.
• Week 2: SEA 21, ARI 10: Another bad opponent, slightly larger win. Note that Arizona had drives of 40 and 43 yards both end with missed field goals. Those missed field goals drop Arizona's rating, but don't raise Seattle's rating.
• Week 4: CHI 37, SEA 6: The "Kol Nidre Massacre."
• Week 7: MIN 31, SEA 13: Another stomping, this is Seattle's worst rating of the year because of opponent adjustments. Chicago is a top team and Minnesota is a mediocre one.
• Week 8: KC 35, SEA 28: The DVOA ratings for this game were nowhere near as close as the final score indicates. Kansas City fumbled five times and recovered only one of them -- and that was a play where punter Dustin Colquitt fumbled, recovered, fumbled again and Seattle recovered the second fumble.

Games with positive DVOA

• Week 3: SEA 42, NYG 30: Convincing win over Giants, though the rating is diminished by second-half collapse.
• Week 6: SEA 30, STL 28: Close win, slightly above average DVOA.
• Week 8: SEA 16, OAK 0: Shutting out Oakland is not really a huge accomplishment.
• Week 9: SEA 24, STL 22: Close win, although this is actually Seattle's highest-rated game of the year. Four fumbles in this game, three recovered by St. Louis, and one of those was returned for a touchdown. (The fourth fumble, not officially a fumble, is a muffed punt by Josh Scobey). Seattle was also strong in the red zone in this game, leading to three Jeff Wilkins field goals, and red zone plays are 20 percent stronger than other plays.

So there you go. Four ratings are close to zero (weeks 1, 2, 6, 8). Three negatives (4, 7, 8) and two positives (3, 9). Remember how I noted in the commentary this week that Jacksonville has seven games that are either above 40% or below -40%? Well, all three of the bad Seattle games are below -40%, and none of their wins are above 40%. Add it all up, and you get a slightly below-average team.

On the other hand, look past DVOA. Notice this paragraph in the DVOA commentary:

Remember, of course, that any statistical formula is not a replacement for your own judgment, just a tool to use in analyzing performance. Also note that the DVOA ratings do not consider injuries, either in rating past games or in projecting future games.

The Seahawks have a two-game lead in their division and are one of just four NFC teams with six wins. They would have to completely collapse to miss the playoffs. The starting quarterback, running back, and tight end have all missed at least half the season. The tight end is already back and the quarterback and running back will return soon. The offensive line has improved in the last two games since Pork Chop Womack returned from injury. The defense still has a lot of room for potential growth. Right now, the Seahawks don't look like a major Super Bowl contender, but would anyone be surprised to see them get hot in the second half and go on a run?

Post by Aaron Schatz

In late March, Atlanta Falcons president and general manager Rich McKay, in his role as the co-chairman of the NFL’s Competition Committee, held a conference call in which he revealed what the Committee had discussed regarding penalties and the league’s new points of emphasis during the annual league meetings. The mechanics of several penalties were addressed, but holding was the hot issue.

McKay was asked about the “ingredients of a hold,” an obvious reference to Seattle RT Sean Locklear’s hold on Pittsburgh LB Clark Haggans in Super Bowl XL. The penalty negated a Matt Hasselbeck to Jerramy Stevens pass play that would have put the Seahawks on the Pittsburgh 1-yard line in the fourth quarter, driving for a 17-14 lead with a touchdown. What could have been a 98-yard scoring drive ended three plays later when Hasselbeck threw an interception. When Vice President of Officiating Mike Pereira was interrogated by Rich Eisen on the NFL Network two weeks after Pittsburgh’s 21-10 win, he talked about the “ingredients of a hold” as a viable reason for what seemed to be a ticky-tack call. Of course, as FO’s Michael David Smith wrote four days after the game, Bill Leavy’s crew had other opportunities to flag Locklear through the game. Problem was, the same standard to which Locklear was … um … “held” didn’t apply to others, and that was McKay’s concern.

“We've got a big section in our book that will be on blocking clarifications and dealing with holding, really, and really just rewriting the rule, not changing the way it's officiated, but rewriting the rule so everybody has a clear understanding as we tried to do with defensive pass interference a number of years ago,” McKay told the media.

“One of the things we emphasized in there was seeing the entire foul. If you do not see the entire foul, you cannot call holding,” he continued. “That's specifically applied when players go to the ground. Because what often happens is you see a player, a defensive player on the ground, the offensive player is on the ground and you see a flag, foul it. If you don't see the entire action, you cannot assume that it was holding that caused that player to go to the ground.”

When asked specifically about Locklear’s hold and whether he thought the official saw the play, McKay deferred to Mike Pereira, who was either not part of the conference call, or declined to comment.

Given that new professed emphasis, we can look at the number of offensive holding calls and see if the number has gone down, comparing the first nine weeks of 2005 and 2006. To this point in 2005, 355 holding penalties had been called, and 309 have been called in 2006. Is that enough of a difference to assume a change in philosophy?

Through the entire 2005 season, Ron Winter and Larry Nemmers tied for the most offensive holding calls with 51. Ed Hochuli holds the mark in 2006 so far with 28, and last year’s leaders have taken different paths – Nemmers with 26 and Winter with 14.

If Bill Carollo is your crew chief, your offensive linemen may rejoice – Carollo’s crew has called only five holding penalties all year. Did Bill get a memo that nobody else did? He called 37 holds in 2005, third-fewest in the league, but still far more than his current pace.

Wildly divergent penalty numbers from crew to crew was another point addressed by McKay in that March call. “When you get the swings that you get in some of the crews … I think what Mike (Pereira) is focused on is trying to make sure that during the season, we're paying attention to those trends and that we're communicating with those crews in understanding what they're seeing and why they're calling it and seeing if we're all on the same page,” McKay said. “I think we always have to strive to bring those numbers closer. They'll never be the same and they'll never be within five percent, but we'd certainly like them to be closer than they are. It was discussed.”

But this doesn’t really seem to be a point more closely followed by the officials to date. Through the 2005 season, the least active crew, Bill Vinovich’s, threw only 60% as many flags as the most punitive crew (Nemmers): 185 to 309, and 1258 penalty yards to 2116. So far in 2006, the percentage of calls for the fewest penalties per crew in comparison to the most is 56% - Walt Coleman’s 73 (for 509 yards) to Jerome Boger’s 130 (for 858).

It’s all well and good for the Competition Committee to get together in Hawaii each spring, watch film with Mike Pereira, laugh when Chad Johnson plays golf with an end zone pylon, and eventually discuss what should be altered and improved from year to year in the interest of making officiating more reliable, accurate and trustworthy. But if the edicts don’t transfer onto the field, those March Maui mutterings are little more than background noise.

Post by Doug Farrar

Each week, the Football Outsiders staff e-mails one another with updates about Sunday's games. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"At 1:55 PM EST, I witness my first Eagles first down. I am not a happy dude."

"Wow. Steve McNair just threw a ball directly at two Saints defenders -- both of whom whiffed on it -- and Todd Heap gets a touchdown surprise with

seconds to go in the first half. Man, this Billick guy really is a genius."

"The Bears took a 24-0 lead before the Niners executed their 8th play from scrimmage."

"Reggie Bush has been off his game all day, and he just tried to bounce a running play outside for a three-yard loss. As #### Engberg so aptly noted, this is the difference between the Pac-10 and the NFL."

"Boomer Esiason said on CBS post-game that David Garrard was the reason the Jaguars beat the Eagles, and that the Jaguars just play better with him in there. Unbelieveable. Garrard threw for 87 yards. The Jaguars ran all over a Philly defense that bit on every misdirection and completely forgot how to wrap up tackles. The Jaguars defense was all over the Eagles, who couldn't hold onto any passes. And Garrard is the reason they won. Sure."

"David Carr has been lifted for Sage Rosenfeld. Ouch!"

"The Titans seem to have gotten their defense together the last few weeks. If they finish 5-11, will Jeff Fisher still be fired? If so, how many teams will fire their coach and hope to pick Fisher up?"

"Who had Owen Daniels in his fantasy league?"

"Note to NFL quarterbacks – if you’re facing the Seahawks, and you have third and long, just heave the ball over the middle. Your guy will have 20 yards of open space all around him."

"When Ty Law is considered for the Hall of Fame, this game won't be on his highlight film. He dropped what could have been the easiest interception of his career. A couple plays later, he fell down and Darrell Jackson was wide open to catch a floater from Seneca Wallace for the touchdown. I think there was a pump-fake and maybe Law wanted to make up for the missed interception."

"This current defense will keep the Seahawks out of the playoffs. And it should be thing that gets them in, from a talent standpoint."

"Just got back from the Giants game. However bad the wind looked on the field, it was worse in person. Neither team could do much of anything in conditions like that. Still, I didn't like Jon Gruden's gameplan, throwing 50 passes with a rookie QB in those conditions in a game they never trailed by more than two scores.

"Imagine what the Cardinals could do if their skill position players all had a good day at the same time."

"The Colts Broncos game has turned into a battle to see which is more powerful, the Peyton Manning offense, or the colossal power of suck emanating from the galaxy-sized Hoover that is the Indianapolis run defense."

"I liken Ben Roethlisberger to an old television set. If it's a little fuzzy, you hit it once and it works great. You hit again and it's back to being fuzzy".

"Roethlisberger just threw his fourth pick, this one for a 100-yard touchdown return. The rest of his throws have been awful. I mean, they've been so bad that somewhere Tommy Maddox is saying, in between giggling uncontrollably, 'Now that's an awful interception.'"

"When was the last time you saw Randy Moss do something really impressive?"

"The Jets got screwed. Don't get me wrong, the rules are the rules, and it's a split second decision. However, they got screwed. It's their own fault. They made so many mistakes during the game to eventually putthemselves in a position in which they could get screwed. So it goes."

"It seems like Bill Parcells is auditioning for Weekend at Bernie's 3. Has he reacted to anything? False starts, turnovers, questionable calls by the official ... he just stares into space like Art Shell."

"Jake Delhomme just went through a very Drew Bledsoe-like progression. He held onto the ball too long, threw late to his first read into double coverage, and got intercepted. All he needed was a star on his helmet and cement feet."

Read more of this commentary in Audibles at the Line at FootballOutsiders.com.

post by Mike Tanier