When Steve Hutchinson put his pen to a $49 million offer sheet in March of 2006, the agent of every elite offensive lineman in the NFL whose free agency status was imminent did a little happy dance. And as we have seen, the 2007 salary cap bump from $102 million to $109 million has teams spending Yankees-style on every position. But can a guard really be worth this much? Until recently, guard was a position seen as low-cost and fungible.

The attempt to answer that question leads us to the Football Outsiders stats for the offensive line: Adjusted Line Yards (which takes all running back carries and assigns o-line responsibilities based on yardage) and Adjusted Sack Rate (sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down and distance). In addition, we have the “blown blocks” numbers from the FO game-charting project. These are “whiffs” that led directly to quarterback sacks.

One caveat: Offensive line stats as they relate to individuals aren’t perfectly conclusive, because the efforts of one are related so closely to the efforts of many. We measure five directions – left end, left tackle, mid/guard, right tackle, and right end – but responsibility is more fluid than a one-on-one correspondence. (Left tackles should not be measured only by "left tackle" runs, etc.) The "blown blocks" numbers are still incomplete, as the game-charting data only includes Weeks 1-16 with about 20 missing game-halves.

Still, we can get a better insight into the value of each of the five linemen who have signed combined contracts in the last fiscal year worth almost a quarter of a billion dollars on their face.

Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota Vikings

Contract: Seven years, $49 million, $16 million guaranteed. The Vikings signed Hutchinson to a now-legendary “poison pill” offer sheet which would have made the entire contract guaranteed for the Seahawks if they had matched the offer after Seattle gave Hutchinson the transition tag instead of the franchise designation. This was the Shot Heard ‘Round the World for offensive linemen – between this and the increasing salary cap, things would never be the same.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (16 LG, Minnesota Vikings)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 4.85 (Rank: 6, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.33 (Rank: 19 League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 3
Penalties: 0 (the second straight season Hutchinson hasn’t been penalized)
Comments: You’ll get arguments, but most would agree that the first big-money guard is still the best. Spent some time adjusting in Minnesota, but this is a technician with a brawler’s soul … the complete package. And if you want to know how good he really is, don’t look at the Minnesota line – check out at the Seattle line he left behind. Quite possibly the league’s best in 2005, the Seahawks’ front five dropped from sixth to 30th in Adjusted Line Yards, from ninth to 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate, and from second to 31st in Mid/Guard ALY.

Kris Dielman, San Diego Chargers

Contract: Six years, $39 million, $17 million guaranteed in the first two years alone. Dielman and his agent had been negotiating with Seattle, but left as much as $10 million on the table – of course, the guaranteed money offered would have been a lot closer.
Games Started (Position) 15 of 16 (15 LG, San Diego Chargers)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 5.04 (Rank: 4, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.38 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 0
Penalties: 5 (2 False Start, 1 Clipping, 1 Chop Block, 1 Holding)
Comments: Perhaps the most coveted pure guard in free agency (at the Combine, all the talk about Dielman and Steinbach was about how the former would prove to be the better player over time), Dielman got to the altar with the Seahawks on Paul Allen’s private jet only to balk and fly coach back to sunny San Diego, and the best offensive line in the NFL. He’ll continue to shore up the Chargers’ left side with Marcus McNeill, who had such a great rookie season in 2006.

(For people who don't know the specifics on Adjusted Line Yards, one aspect of the stat is that it cuts off the extended yardage on long runs, when a running back is mostly gaining yardage with his own talents rather than his blocking. That explains how an offense with LaDainian Tomlinson could possibly rank 16th in anything rushing-related.)

Eric Steinbach, Cleveland Browns

Contract: Seven years, $49.5 million, $17 million guaranteed. Some reports have indicated that he’ll move to the right side (guard or tackle) for Cleveland, though nothing is set in stone for the versatile Steinbach.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (14 LG, 1 LT, 1 C, Cincinnati Bengals)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left End, 4.19 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.12) Left Tackle, 4.45 (Rank: 13, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard 4.34 (Rank: 16, League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 3
Penalties: 5 (5 False Start)
Comments: Interesting note: While the Bengals’ injury-depleted line finished around the league average at four of the five directions, the Right Tackle direction was the NFL’s best with an Adjusted Line Yards rating of 5.29, more than a yard over the league average. RG Bobbie Williams and RT Willie Anderson would be primarily responsible for that.

Derrick Dockery, Buffalo Bills

Contract: Seven years, $49 million, (sensing a trend here?), $18 million guaranteed.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (16 LG, Washington Redskins)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left Tackle, 4.95 (Rank: 5, League Average 4.37) Mid/Guard, 4.58 (Rank: 7, League Average 4.32)
Blown Blocks: 0
Penalties: 7 (6 False Start, 1 Offensive Holding)
Comments: The Redskins were below the league average in Adjusted Line Yards for Left End, Right Tackle and Right End – basically, each of the five directions we measure in which Dockery didn’t play a fairly major part. Think they’ll miss him?

Leonard Davis, Dallas Cowboys

Contract: Seven years, $49.6 million, $18.5 million guaranteed. Yeah, this one had a lot of people wondering. And the numbers below put Davis in the vicinity of the dreaded Alex Barron Statistical Cluster, which is the rough equivalent of the Mendoza Line.
Games Started (Position) 16 of 16 (16 LT, Arizona Cardinals)
Positional Adjusted Line Yards: Left End, 4.08 (Rank: 17, League Average 4.12) Left Tackle, 3.96 (Rank: 26, League Average 4.37)
Blown Blocks: 7
Penalties: 10 (8 False Starts, 2 Offensive Holding)
Comments: It’s quite simple, really. If Leonard Davis is worth $18 million guaranteed, especially since initial reports indicate that the Cowboys will move him to the right side, I’m the President of the Skip Bayless Fan Club. In an offseason of big-money signings (some more ridiculous than others), this is the goofiest. If Hutch’s deal was the equivalent of the attack on Fort Sumter, Davis’s signing was the rubber chicken upside the head.

Post by Doug Farrar

Host: Welcome to the hottest new show on television, the one that pits precocious middle schoolers against people who were too dumb to get on any other reality shows. This week, we offer a new twist: the kids will be competing against NFL personalities.

It's time for our first matchup. Here's the scenario. You are a 32-year old NFL quarterback coming off a bad season. You were just traded to new team, but you are seriously considering retirement instead. What do you do?

Fifth Grader: In recess, I play on a football team. Playing football is fun. My 32-year dad is on an insurance sales team. Selling insurance is not fun. Anyone who chooses selling insurance, or managing a construction company, or waiting until his money runs out and then selling his autograph for $5 a pop at sports card shows is just crazy. I would keep playing football.

Contestant "Jake:" I'm tired of football and I don't want to play anymore. I don't even want to sit on a bench for a year or two and collect a big salary while retaining the $5 million portion of my signing bonus that I may forfeit by retiring. I won't be installing patios for a living in three years. I'm gonna be a television personality. Everybody wants a television analyst with a beard that looks like a squirrel's nest.

Host: Sorry, Jake. The fifth grader wins this round easily.

Now for our next scenario: Your team just went 14-2 but lost in the playoffs. You are a general manager who can't get along with your head coach. You give the coach a vote of confidence after the playoff loss, but a few weeks later you find that you still can't see eye-to-eye with him. What do you do?

Fifth Grader: That's easy. In school, we are taught to put differences aside and work together. When we do group projects, we get grades on how well we divide responsibilities and how well we cooperate. If the team is playing well, the general manager must work with the coach, and they must share credit and blame. Plus, if the general manager waits too long and tries to fire the coach, all of the good replacements will be gone. In gym class, we learn that you never want to pick last, or else you get stuck with someone like Norv Turner running your dodge ball team.

Contestant "A.J.:" Fire the unreasonable son-of-a-gun. Hire whoever is left on the market. Risk tearing down everything we've built in the last four years. I'll show fans who the real football expert is around here, just you wait and see.

Host: Sorry, A.J., we have to go with the fifth grader on that one.

Okay, here's another scenario. You are an NFL owner, and you are signing free agents. You have a chance to sign a left tackle, a former Cardinals first round pick who has been a disappointment for his entire career. What do you do?

Fifth grader: My math teacher told me that money is important, and I shouldn't waste all of it on bubble gum and Avatar action figures. This player sounds like the kind of toy who looks great in the commercial but doesn't quite work right when you bring it home. If a toy like that comes with a Happy Meal, then it is great, but if you spend too much money on toys like that, then you cannot afford really good ones.

Contestant "Jerry:" A big left tackle who might be good? Pay him $50-million. Give him the largest bonus in team history. And put him at guard or right tackle, where he can't possibly be worth that kind of money. Sure, that will shake up the team's salary structure a little, but we don't have any complainers or malcontents on our roster, so no worries. In August, the tackle and T.O will be hanging out in the whirlpool with phantom hamstring pulls while the rest of the team sweats through training camp, but I'm sure my new coach and novice offensive coordinator will be able to manage the situation.

Host: Oops, sorry. The fifth grader wins again.

Okay, here's our final scenario: You are hanging out at a Vegas strip club and have the urge to throw $81,000 around on stage. The promoter decides that the money is his and puts it in a big trash bag. What do you do next?

Fifth grader: Well, I'm a little young to be talking about strip clubs, but hey, this is FOX. I know I am not supposed to throw money around. And my uncle once told me that as soon as the cash hits the stage, it belongs to the club, not the dude who threw it. And most important, I know that the best way to avoid trouble is to just walk away from it. The moment you walk into a strip joint with entourage, a rapper, and enough money to buy a loaded Lexus, you are just asking for trouble.

Contestant "Pacman:" First of all, let me say that I'm a victim in all this. I was the one attacked by the bouncers. My stylist got pushed into a cactus, for goodness sakes, and those things are spiky. Anyway, what red-blooded American man wouldn't blow 81 grand on a chance to "make it rain" for visual effect? And who wouldn't expect to get his money back? How would I know that a major fight would break out and that someone would get seriously injured? For some reason, trouble just keeps finding me.

Host: I'm sorry, but the fifth grader wins again. It looks like a clean sweep for the kids, folks. Tune in next week when a 11-year old demonstrates the proper way to dispose of a water bottle before approaching airport security.

post by Mike Tanier

Remember when we all used to wait for June 1, when all kinds of veterans would be cut for salary cap purposes? Teams waited for that day so they could postpone the cap charges by a year. Nowadays teams are doing a much better job of managing the cap, so nobody really needs to push things back by waiting until June 1 to cut someone. Instead, teams seem to be using March 1 as the deadline, so they can officially open up room in the budget before free agency starts on March 2. As an added bonus, cutting a veteran now is just a nicer thing to do, because it is easier to find another job in March than to find another job in June.

So a lot of players were cut over the last couple days. Some of them were surprising, some not. I thought I would take a look at Football Outsiders similarity scores to see what they suggest about these players in the future, should they sign with new teams. Unfortunately, similarity scores are limited to "skill players" on offense. In my opinion, the best player cut over the last couple of days is clearly linebacker Joey Porter, but we can't do one of these for him.

Similarity scores were first created for baseball by Bill James. (Honestly, what wasn't first created for baseball by Bill James?) The basic idea is that we compare players by subtracting a certain amount of points from 1000 based on the differences between statistics: receptions, yards, carries, passes, completion percentage, you name it. The football similarity scores also subtract points for every year difference in age and every year difference in NFL experience. (One player might come out as a redshirt senior, another as a non-redshirt junior, so these can be different.) The goal there is to get a list of similar players at a similar point in their careers. But even better, you can get a list of similar career paths by looking at two or three years in a row.

Obviously, we're using standard stats, so nothing is adjusted for opponent and we don't consider whether a receiver had to suffer with a bad quarterback in a particular year, or anything like that. This is not for hard research, but it's a fun little tool, and it does prove useful. (For example, the list of running backs similar to Shaun Alexander from 2003-2005 includes a lot of guys who got injured the next year.)

My database for similarity scores goes from 1978-2006. (We start in 1978 because of the liberalization of passing rules that year.) 1982 and 1987 get pro-rated for the strike. I'll list the top 10 most similar players for each guy, not counting other players from 2004-2006 -- those guys are listed, but not counted in the top 10. I'm only listing the third year for each guy.

Joe Horn

1) Yancey Thigpen, 1999 Oilers
2) Alfred Jenkins, 1983 Falcons
3) John Stallworth, 1986 Steelers
4) Stanley Morgan, 1988 Patriots
5) Frank Lewis, 1983 Bills
6) Steve Largent, 1989 Seahawks
7) Fred Barnett, 1996 Dolphins
8) Jimmy Smith, 2003 Jaguars
9) Rob Moore, 1999 Cardinals
X) Muhsin Muhammad, 2006 Bears
10) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets

This is a list of great veteran receivers, like Horn. You've got a couple Hall of Famers, and some franchise legends like Morgan and Smith. But four of these guys didn't play the next year. Five of them were part-time players the next year, which is also true of the next couple players on the list (J.T. Smith, Roy Green, Terance Mathis). Only Jimmy Smith rebounded to his prior level of play with 1,172 yards and six touchdowns. Joe Horn may be useful next year, but after two down years and lots of nagging injuries, I don't think you can trust him to be more than your third option.

Eric Moulds

1) Terance Mathis, 2001 Falcons
2) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets
3) Andre Reed, 1999 Bills
4) Anthony Carter, 1991 Vikings
X) Rod Smith, 2006 Broncos
5) Tim Brown, 2003 Raiders
X) Keyshawn Johnson, 2006 Panthers
6) Drew Hill, 1992 Falcons
7) Keenan McCardell, 2002 Bucs
8) Troy Brown, 2003 Patriots
9) Webster Slaughter, 1995 Chiefs
10) Ahmad Rashad, 1982 Vikings

This is another list of good veteran receivers, although not as good as the list for Horn, which makes sense, since Moulds in general was not as good as Horn. Like the list for Horn, one player on the list did continue to play at a high level, Keenan McCardell. Troy Brown became a two-way player the next year, but I don't think Eric Moulds will be doing that. In general, this is the same deal as above: most of these guys were part-time receivers the next season. The difference is that fewer of these guys retired, maybe because when you play at the level of Steve Largent, it's easier to quit knowing you have nothing else to prove.

Keenan McCardell

X) Joe Jurevicius, 2006 Browns
1) Ricky Proehl, 2002 Rams
2) Nat Moore, 1986 Dolphins
3) Roy Green, 1991 Eagles
4) John Taylor, 1994 49ers
5) Mike Sherrard, 1995 Giants
6) Mark Clayton, 1992 Dolphins
7) Ed McCaffrey, 2003 Broncos
8) Roger Carr, 1981 Colts
9) Qadry Ismail, 2002 Colts
10) Mel Gray, 1981 Cardinals

Yes, the most similar player to Keenan McCardell is another active player. Frankly, none of these players is really that similar to McCardell. For example, McCardell was 36 last season, older than all 11 players listed above. McCardell has one of the strangest career patterns in NFL history. The Browns goofed around with him for three years, playing him mostly on special teams. They finally had him start in 1995, and he put up a good but not great year of 709 yards and four touchdowns. Then he signed a free agent contract with Jacksonville, and managed at least 1,100 yards in four of the next six years -- even though he was the number two receiver on the team behind Jimmy Smith.

So at 32, he signs with Tampa Bay. Personally, he has a decline year, only 670 yards, but he also wins a Super Bowl title. Looks like a guy who finally got a ring just as his career was about to hit the same place Joe Horn has been in the last two years, right? Except McCardell then goes and has the best season of his entire career at age 33. When Keyshawn Johnson threw his little hissy fit, McCardell became the number one receiver on his team for the first time in his entire career -- in his TWELFTH season.

Wait, there's more! He takes this positive momentum and holds out for half a season. He wins out, gets traded to San Diego, plays okay in a few games, then the next year at age 35 he has another great year including a career-high 9 touchdowns. Who the hell else has a career high in touchdowns at the age of 35? One year later, in 2006, he finally collapsed, and by the end of the year he was barely on the field.

What's really strange is that if I listed every appearance by a player, rather than just the most similar season, 4 of the top 14 most similar three-year spans to Keenan McCardell 2004-2006 belong to Ricky Proehl in any three-year period between 2000 and 2005. So if McCardell wants to sign somewhere next year and play in the Ricky Proehl role, it's there for the taking. I hear the Colts need a Ricky Proehl to replace, you know, the actual Ricky Proehl. Otherwise, it's retirement time.

Jamal Lewis

1) Rodney Hampton, 1995 Giants
2) Jerome Bettis, 1999 Steelers
3) Mike Pruitt, 1983 Browns
4) Adrian Murrell, 1998 Cardinals
5) Sammy Winder, 1987 Broncos
6) Joe Morris, 1988 Giants
X) Thomas Jones, 2006 Bears
7) Mike Rozier, 1988 Oilers
8) Thurman Thomas, 1996 Bills
9) George Rogers, 1985 Redskins
10) Earl Campbell, 1983 Oilers

You look at that list, and you say, "Wow. Jamal Lewis has a future. Jerome Bettis? Jerome Bettis had some great years since 1999." Well, don't be quite so optimistic. Like Keenan McCardell, Jerome Bettis has had a particularly unique career. Very few players have been burnt out by a high number of carries, then worked their way back to their previous level of performance. Bettis did it TWICE, in 2001 and then again in 2004. Could Jamal Lewis do that? Well, he was great back when he was great, right? But so were the other guys on this list.

Other than Bettis, what you have here is a list of a lot of players who were great in their youth and then declined in their late 20s, but kept on plugging along with 200-carry years at 3.6-3.8 yards per carry. George Rogers is the only one of these players to average more than 4.1 yards per carry the next season. You've got the aborted Joe Morris Cleveland comeback, Earl Campbell getting traded to New Orleans... ah, memories. If you want to be relevant in 2007, Jamal, get on the phone to Jerome Bettis immediately and ask for training tips.

Drew Bledsoe

1) Ron Jaworski, 1986 Eagles
2) Jim Plunkett, 1984 Raiders
3) Bobby Hebert, 1994 Falcons
X) Kerry Collins, 2006 Titans
4) Phil Simms, 1991 Giants
5) Brad Johnson, 2004 Bucs
6) Danny White, 1986 Cowboys
7) Tommy Maddox, 2004 Steelers
X) Trent Green, 2006 Chiefs
8) Ken O'Brien, 1992 Jets
9) Archie Manning, 1981 Saints
10) Jeff Hostetler, 1997 Redskins

Dude, it's over.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Let me say this as clearly and simply as possible: Norv Turner can't coach. He's an awful hire for the Chargers. He's going to undo everything that the team has accomplished over the last three years.

Turner's all-time record as a head coach is 58-82-1. That's bad. His teams have won 10 games exactly once in nine seasons. That's truly bad. Even a blind squirrel stumbles upon more than one nut per decade. Even Rich Kotite reached double-digits in wins two times. If Chargers fans are sick of Marty Schottenheimer because he always loses in the playoffs, they can take solace in the fact that Turner never reaches the playoffs. His all-time playoff record as a head coach is 1-1.

But Turner is a great offensive mind, you say? Turner the coordinator is only slightly more effective than Turner the coach. Since 1994, only one Turner-coached offense (head coach or coordinator) has finished in the top-10 in the NFL in DVOA: the 1999 Redskins. If you don't like DVOA, fine. Only one Turner-coached team has finished in the top 10 in points scored or yards gained: the 1999 Redskins. His teams – the 1994-2000 Redskins, the 2001 Chargers, the 2002-03 Dolphins, the 2004-05 Raiders, the 2006 Niners -- usually finish between 12th and 24th in the league in the major offensive categories. A 12th place finish isn't bad, but if offense is your strong point, you have to do better.

Turner's supporters point out that he often takes over terrible offenses, so his ability to take them from 32nd to 16th in the league is an accomplishment. I'd like to introduce those supporters to my friend Mr. Central Tendency. Mr. Tendency makes bad teams mediocre with the help of friends like Mr. Law of Averages and Mr. High Draft Choice. Once these misters have done their business, Turner doesn't have to do much to make a middling offense. His efforts with the Niners last season were typical. He took over a team that ranked dead last in offensive DVOA. Their rookie quarterback became a second-year quarterback, they spent a high draft choice on a tight end, they signed a veteran All Pro offensive guard, and Frank Gore emerged as a featured back. Thanks to all this and a little bit of Turner brilliance, the Niners climbed all the way to 24th in DVOA. Way to go Norv!

Of course, if a team climbed from 32nd to 24th to 12th to third on Turner's watch, that would be a sign of competence. But Turner never hangs around that long. If Turner were a business executive, he would take companies that were $20 million in debt, cut the debt to $12 million, and claim success. Then, after he left, the debt would go back to $20 million. Have you seen the Dolphins or Raiders offenses lately? That's the extent of Turner's post-Cowboys resume: he takes crappy teams, makes them slightly less crappy, then leaves before anyone notices that he hasn't coached a good offense since 1999. Then, the crappiness returns. Turner Boosters claim that the return to crappiness is a sign of Norv's genius: see, that was a 4-12 team before and after Turner, and only he could make them 7-9. You would think that such a great coach and developer of talent (more on that in a minute) would leave teams better off than they were when he arrived.

Oh yeah, the Cowboys. Turner made his name with Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys, of course, and those teams posted some impressive offensive totals. The trouble is that my mom could have coached that team into the Super Bowl. "Here, Troy, here's a football. Give it to Emmit a lot, throw it Michael a lot. Remember that the offensive line will only give you a minute or two to make your decision on most plays, so choose wisely."

Turner has milked every drop of mojo he could from his stint with the Cowboys. In fact, you will probably read an article by Troy Aikman on the main FOX site in the next few days praising Turner. I don't want to knock Aikman. Aikman's toenail clippings contain more football knowledge than is lodged in my entire cranium. But Aikman just isn't impartial when it comes to his former coach. Aikman will often say that Turner made him into a great player, but Aikman was always destined to be a great player. He has it backwards: Aikman turned Turner into a viable coaching candidate. Chargers fans will pay the price over the next few years.

Offensive stats tell just part of the story. Compared to Turner the Motivator, Turner the Offensive Guru is a genius. Turner lets the boys be boys, with predictable results. His teams generally fade down the stretch and descend into squabbling while he sends out applications for his next gig. His Redskins underachieved. His Raiders underachieved. The Chargers, coming off a 14-2 season, have plenty of room for underachievement.

And yet Turner keeps getting hired, thanks in part to the old boy network and in part to the Turner Boosters who incomprehensible excuse and rationalize his failings. Turner is a great developer of young talent … you've heard that, right? In addition to Aikman and Irvin, he developed Trent Green, Terry Allen, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams, Frank Gore, and more. Actually, that's about it, and it’s a list that includes lots of players who would have been superstars unless a coach told them to bulk up to 400 pounds or cut out their ACLs in their sleep. Turner Boosters give their man credit for "developing" any player who ever did well on any of the teams he coached. The list looks pretty good because Turner coached all over the place and therefore rubbed shoulders with all sorts of top prospects.

Alex Smith is Norv's latest success story: Smith went from an awful rookie to a pretty mediocre soph (35th in the league in DPAR) in what looks like the standard career arc for a young quarterback. If Smith is an All Pro in two years, you can bet that Turner Boosters will put the feather in their man's cap.

Norv Turner is a lousy coach. He might be effective as a receivers or quarterbacks coach, where he can teach footwork and arm motion and never make a game-affecting decision. But he's awful as a coordinator and poison as a head coach. The Chargers made a stupid decision. He'll take them to 10-6 this season, miss the playoffs, and claim success. Broncos and Chiefs fans have reason to celebrate, and even Raiders fans can feel like the smart kids for a few weeks.

post by Mike Tanier

I was thinking about the strange case of Michael Turner. How many backup running backs average six yards per carry over three seasons? (5.99, to be precise.) San Diego will give their restricted free agent a sweet tender, so teams that want Turner have to give up either a first-round pick or a first and a third. Part of the question is what happens to Turner going forward, so I thought I would look for similar players using FO similarity scores.

Looking at a three-year span, one player stands out, far ahead of everyone else:

• 849: Stump Mitchell, STL (1981-1983)
• 807: Bill Johnson, CIN (1985-1987)
• 799: Hokie Gajan, NO (1982-1984)
• 781: Ron Rivers, DET (1996-1998)
• 780: Booker Russell, SD (1978-1980)
• 779: Najeh Davenport, GB (2002-2004)
• 778: Barry Redden, LA RAMS (1982-1984)

Everyone else is below 770.

Mitchell provides a fascinating look at what life might be like for Michael Turner if free agency did not exist. Like Turner, he was drafted by a team that already had one of the league's top running backs, Ottis Anderson. But unlike Turner, there was no threat that he would go anywhere, in restricted OR unrestricted free agency. He kept plugging along with 5.5 yards per carry each year, along with play on special teams. In his fourth season, 1984, he became a receiving threat, with more catches, yards, and touchdowns receiving than in his first three seasons combined.

Anderson started having some injury issues, so Mitchell's playing time finally went up in 1985. He gained 1,000 yards with just 183 carries, 5.5 yards per carry, with seven touchdowns rushing and another three receiving. In 1986, he had 174 carries and played well again, although he averaged a career-low (to that point) 4.6 yards per carry. For that to be a career-low, well, that shows you how good he was through 1986. By this point, he was sharing the job with Earl Ferrell rather than Anderson. 1987 was his career high, 203 carries, but actually his worst season, just 3.8 yards per carry. He rebounded with another good year as a part-timer in 1988, played a handful of games in 1989, and that was that. He's now the running backs coach in Seattle, where he's partly responsible for Shaun Alexander's MVP season.

Bill Johnson's third year is the strike year and he never played again, the strike means that's probably not worth looking at.

Hokie Gajan also had three great seasons but in the fourth year had injury problems. He also never played again, but that clearly was not an issue of talent. He's now the Saints' radio color guy.

Here's a look at two-year similarities:

• 839: Mitchell, 1982-1983
• 810: Charlie Garner, PHI, 1995-1996
• 803: Redden, 1983-1984
• 802: Russell, 1978-1979
• 798: Gajan, 1983-1984
  
• 795: Richard Huntley, PIT, 1998-1999
• 794: Maurice Morris, SEA, 2002-2003
• 786: LaMont Jordan, NYJ, 2003-2004

Once again, Mitchell is ahead of everyone else. If you are Michael Turner's agent, you like that Charlie Garner similarity second. We know Garner now as a pass-catching back, but he actually had only 32 catches in his first three seasons, and he averaged 5.4 and 5.2 yards per carry in 1995 and 1996. When he finally moved to San Francisco in 1999, he became a starter and one of the best backs in the league. LaMont Jordan also acquitted himself well once he got a starting job, especially considering the quality of the Oakland line. Huntley went to Carolina for a year, played well, but that was the end of his career.

All in all, I think this is another piece of evidence that Turner would be excellent as a starting back somewhere other than San Diego. Will that happen? Probably not this year, but I bet it happens in 2008. Maybe, if Shaun Alexander has more injury problems, Turner can go off to Seattle and be coached by Stump Mitchell.

Post by Aaron Schatz 

OK, so I was just charting the Week 4 game between Baltimore and San Diego, one of the games which had fallen through the cracks in the game charting project. This one is famous as the game where Martyball died, and it really is ridiculous to watch the Chargers line up in a 2-TE I formation on second-and-18.

But that's not the strangest part of the offensive game plan. You know that play where the wide receiver motions in tight, then comes around for a fake end-around after the QB has handed the ball to the running back? In the third quarter, the Chargers ran that on THREE STRAIGHT PLAYS. Then they ran it again two plays later. Then, on the next series, they ran it two more times. That's six times in the space of roughly ten offensive snaps.

The point of this play is to set up the actual end-around later. So did the Chargers ever run an actual end-around?  Nope.  Eric Parker just keeps running around behind the quarterback, not blocking anyone, with the Ravens completely ignoring him.

Good going on those calls, there, Chargers.

Post by Aaron Schatz
 

Here's what the FO staff was talking about during the games on Saturday and Sunday:

"Man, this is making me nostalgic for the days before Jamal Lewis got all used up, when he was really good and I didn't make fun of him all the time."

"Does Indy ever go max protect? Today might be a good day for it."

"When did Marty Schottenheimer become head coach of the Ravens? The Baltimore offense is exhibiting every kind of conservative look that makes people criticize Martyball. Sitting on the ball at the end of the half was just one of many examples."

"Peyton Manning has discovered mobility."

"I've watched 95% of the Colts games for the past four years, and I can't remember seeing a flea flicker."

"Well, for a second there, I thought Brian Billick had his balls reattached, but he changed his mind and punted."

"The only question about the Colts defense playing well is, if they could play like this, WHY DIDN'T THEY FOR THE ENTIRE REGULAR SEASON?"

"This is the best tackling, hardest hitting Colts defense I've seen this year. I think they've found their ... SWAGGER."

"Hmmm...a moronic holding call by Bill Leavy's crew early in the fourth quarter that pretty much killed a huge drive? In the postseason? I've never seen THAT before!"

"This game reminds me of last year's Colts-Steelers playoff game. The underdog comes in, pretty much controls the game, and pulls out the win. And you know the common link? Dan Dierdorf. That's right, if you're an underdog playoff team playing in the AFC Divisional game, you might want to that request Dierdorf does the game."

"Reggie Bush. I mean, wow. He's not supposed to be able to do that in the NFL."

"This is a great game between two very good teams."

"Can anyone think of a player who's changed his style as dramatically as Deuce McAllister? He's a totally different back. Maybe someone should tear DeShaun Foster's ACL."

"Great response by the Saints defense after the Reggie Bush turnover. Just when you think everyone in the stadium was probably thinking, 'oh,that's right, we're the Saints' they come up with a stop"

"It came down to that second-and-1. The Eagles should have been able to push that in for a touchdown, and they couldn't. The Saints are just an amazing story. I think they're going to the Super Bowl."

"Andy Reid made a big mistake punting. The defense was tired. They had a better chance of making that fourth-and-15 than they did of keeping the Saints from a first down AND then scoring in the final 40 seconds or whatever would be left after that."

"As long as the Seahawks take advantage of every possible Bears mistake, they have a chance."

"In my head, I'm hearing Stu Nahan say, 'I’ve got to give that round to Balboa.' The third quarter has been Seattle's.

"Every time the Seahawks get a good run from Alexander, they go back to him and get stuffed. I'd call that a tendency, Mr. Holmgren!"

"Hell of a kick by Robbie Gould."

"Did the Chargers stop blitzing on that touchdown drive at the end of the half? They couldn't get any pressure, and it seemed like their pass rush was a lot less diverse and creative than the rest of the half."

Why did Marty go for it on fourth-and-11 from the 30? I believe in going for it on fourth but 11? You spent a third round pick on Nate Kaeding and don't feel you can trust him from 48 yards?

"The Chargers receivers pretty much suck today."

"Tom Brady is awful today. Just terrible. He threw the second INT off his back foot, and he just missed a wide open Ben Watson. He's getting time to throw and he just looks awful."

"Clutch interception by Brady."

"Yep. Belichick is a genius for calling the pick-and-fumble on 4th-and-5. And Schottenheimer's a choke artist for not anticipating it"

"This game is amazing. It really feels like the Chargers have annihilated the Patriots, yet as I write this it's a two-point conversion away from being tied."

"What can you say about Stephen Gostkowski? He's money in the playoffs."

Read more at FootballOutsiders.com. 

post by Mike Tanier

Before this weekend's playoff games, let's take one more look at the (incomplete) Football Outsiders game charting data. Again: Data incomplete, cleaning not finished, do not take as gospel, etc.

One thing we ask people to mark down is the number of pass rushers and blockers on any pass play (including scrambles). We learned last year that teams send an extra pass rusher so often than five doesn't really count as a blitz anymore. Six or more is when the defense is giving up on coverage to get to the quarterback.

Here's the kooky thing: the teams we have listed as blitzing the most this year are completely different from the teams we have listed as blitzing the most in 2005. Perhaps I'm measuring something differently, or this is an issue with the incomplete data. But last year's top blitzing teams were Denver, New England, and Philadelphia. Based on the data I have here, those defenses rank 10th, 9th, and 22nd this year, respectively. Here's where the eight remaining teams all stand, based on the percentage of pass plays (scrambles or passes) where the defense sent six or more pass rushers:

• 9. Philadelphia (11%)
• 11. Baltimore (11%)
• 15. Chicago (10%)
• 22. New England (7%)
• 24. New Orleans (6%)
• 25. Seattle (6%)
• 27. San Diego (5%)
• 32. Indianapolis (3%)

The Colts were last in 2005 as well. Tony Dungy just doesn't blitz. We only counted three blitzes by the Colts in 2005, total. This year we've got 10 in our incomplete data, which means Indy's blitz rate more than tripled and the Colts are still last in the league.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Nathaniel Freedman: Where does LT's 2006 season rank in relation to the list of Top 10 fantasy seasons listed in PFP 2006?

Aaron Schatz: For those who don't own Pro Football Prospectus 2006 -- and if you don't, you should! -- we did an article about the greatest fantasy seasons of all time. The idea was not total fantasy points, but rather who had the most points using "Value-Based Drafting," where each player's value is the difference between him and the last drafted starter at his position.

The top season there was O.J. Simpson in 1975. LT was on pace to break O.J. Simpson's record, but actually faded a bit in his last couple games, with no touchdowns and just 66 rushing yards in Week 17.

In the end, Tomlinson ended up 262 fantasy points better than the #24 running back, Warrick Dunn, using our simple equation of 1 point for 10 yards and 6 points per touchdown. Looking at a season total, that would come out as the best fantasy season of all time. However, in the article we adjusted for the 14-game season before 1978. Do that, and Tomlinson still falls behind O.J. Simpson's 1975 season.  That year, Simpson had 2,243 yards from scrimmage, almost 500 yards more than any other player in the league -- in fact, only two other players were above 1,500. He also led the league with 23 touchdowns, and Chuck Foreman had 22, and nobody else had more than 16.

The top 12, for those who don't own the book:

1. O.J. Simpson, 1975
2. LaDainian Tomlinson, 2006
3. Priest Holmes, 2003
4. Terrell Davis, 1998
5. Emmitt Smith, 1995
6. Shaun Alexander, 2005
7. Priest Holmes, 2002
8. Walter Payton, 1977
9. Emmitt Smith, 1992
10. Chuck Foreman, 1975
11. Marshall Faulk, 2000
12. Dan Marino, 1984
    

Post by Aaron Schatz

The Boston Herald today ran a list of all of Marty Schottenheimer's playoff games. It does remind you of all the mishaps. A quick glance at the list makes it look like Marty's teams have blown a lot of fourth quarter leads. But actually, if you go through and add together all of these games, and look at the score quarter-by-quarter, can you guess which quarter is the one where Marty's teams historically have been outscored?

Nope, not the fourth quarter.

Schottenheimer teams   68   53   82   108   6
Other teams                      69   111 73   113   6

I think the bigger worry for San Diego fans is that Schottenheimer twice had a team earn the number one seed and lose their first playoff game anyway.

Post by Aaron Schatz
 

Last week we looked at our game charting data for defensive backs from the wild card games. I figured it was a good idea to check out the top two seeds in each conference, since we left them out last week.

The data now consists of Weeks 1-15, and while there are some holes, we've tried to get as many games as possible involving the eight remaining playoff teams. Standard caveats, of course: this data is unofficial, compiled by volunteers, and it is hard to always see who was in coverage when using TV tape. Some definitions:

• Yards per pass: Simply yards per pass attempt with this defender listed as the main one in coverage.
• Stop rate: The percentage of plays with this player in coverage that fell short of 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third down.

All rankings are out of players with at least 30 charted passes.

Baltimore

I've written about this each time I've looked at the game charting data this year. While it isn't quite as extreme as it was early in the season, there's a colossal difference between Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister. Rolle's stop rate of 43% puts him among the 10 worst cornerbacks. He's also allowed 11.0 yards per pass. That's the highest of any cornerback in the league except one: Kevin Dockery, the Giants nickel back who I mistakenly referred to as a safety last week.

McAlister, on the other hand, has a stop rate of 62%, which ranks seventh among all cornerbacks (he's tied with Champ Bailey). He's allowed 7.1 yards per pass, which is about the league average. I'm guessing that McAlister has a high stop rate despite an unimpressive yards per pass because Baltimore opponents are often in third-and-long thanks to sacks and stuffed running plays. McAlister has stopped 18 of 24 charted passes on third down. Rolle has stopped 8 of 18.

As far as the other players, Ed Reed's numbers are actually really awful, a 29% stop rate and 14.2 yards per pass on 21 charted passes. Reed had the highest stop rate of any safety in 2005, so I don't know if this is just limited data, or our charters screwing up the identity of defenders on those passes down the middle, or Reed being used differently in coverage, or some combination of all three. Everyone pretty much agrees that Reed has played very well this year, and I think the safety and linebacker numbers from the charting project are shakier than the cornerback numbers, since corners are much more likely to be in obvious man coverage.

Chicago

The big difference here is not in the numbers but in the number of targeted passes. Charles Tillman has a better stop rate than Nathan Vasher, 61% to 56%, but he gives up slightly more yards per pass, 5.9 to 5.4. Both players are above average in both stats. But we have 88 charted passes with Tillman as the main defender, and only 48 with Vasher as the main defender. We've charted more passes at Tillman than any other defender in the league, and while you might think this is because some teams have incomplete data this year, Tillman was second behind Ike Taylor in 2005, and Vasher was way behind Tillman last year as well.

Ricky Manning comes out with a lower stop rate and more yards allowed per pass (46%, 7.7). Also, he's a ####.

Like I said, linebacker numbers aren't quite as trustworthy as cornerback numbers. But Lance Briggs has a 62% stop rate, second behind Zach Thomas, and allows 4.6 yards per pass, second behind Keith Bulluck. He was near the top in both categories last year too. Briggs is one of the top five linebackers in the number of passes charted with him as the primary defender.

New Orleans

OK, this one is really strange. When I first looked at charting data, Fred Thomas came out as one of the top guys in the league. Then he got injured, and when he came back he was getting super-toasted by everybody he tried to cover. Now his numbers are worse than those for both Mike McKenzie and the other cornerback in New Orleans, who I bet you can't even name.

Even weirder is the split between New Orleans before and after the bye week, which is roughly when Thomas was injured.

Weeks 1-6
Mike McKenzie: 25 charted psses, 36% stop rate, 10.2 yards per pass.
Fred Thomas: 39 charted passes, 67% stop rate, 3.3 yards per pass.
Other Guy: 21 charted passes, 48% stop rate, 6.3 yards per pass.

Weeks 8-15
Mike McKenzie: 30 charted passes, 77% stop rate, 4.8 yards per pass.
Fred Thomas: 36 charted passes, 33% stop rate, 14.9 yards per pass.
Other Guy: 30 charted passes, 77% stop rate, 4.8 yards per pass.

"Other Guy" is eight-year veteran Jason Craft. Yes, his numbers from Weeks 8-15, based on the data collected as of today, are the exact same as McKenzie, and both are far better than they were before the bye week, and Thomas is far, far worse. Honestly, I have no idea what the heck is going on here. Craft's charting numbers were horrific in 2005. In 2006, based on data so far, he's tied with Pac-Man Jones for the best stop rate among all cornerbacks (65% for the whole year).

San Diego

This one is pretty interesting, especially since the secondary was supposed to be the weakness of the Chargers. Drayton Florence has one of the best stop rates in the league, 63%, and Quentin Jammer's stop rate is just 47%. But they allow roughly the same yards per pass (6.1 for Florence, 6.5 for Jammer), because Florence allows double the yards after catch.

Nickel cornerback Antonio Cromartie also has a 63% stop rate. He's allowed 8.4 yards per pass, which doesn't look good until you see that the average pass we've charted against him is 20.3 yards in the air. That's the highest of any cornerback with at least 30 charted passes by a good THREE YARDS. (Fred Thomas, by the way, is second. He really has been super torch-o-licious over the second half of the year.)

Donnie Edwards, like Lance Briggs, is one of the top five linebackers in the number of passes charted with him as the primary defender.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Ron: OK, many of the Cowboys fans and I are a tad bitter about Terrance Newman not making the Pro Bowl - especially with DeAngelo Hall getting in. We feel that Newman does an excellent job of shutting down whatever side of the field he's on, or whatever receiver he's been assigned to. He doesn't get the picks or huge plays because QB's just don't throw at him and he doesn't give up big plays.

Are we correct? Is Newman better statistically?

Aaron Schatz: DeAngelo Hall is not the worst Pro Bowl selection this year. That would probably be Mack Strong -- Strong would have been a great pick in any of the last few years, but this year his ability to block just disintegrated. Hall is probably the second-worst selection. Hall is an example of a phenomenon that we may be writing more about in the coming months, and in next year's book: people wrongly assume that great athletes are effective football players. This is a huge problem with boom-and-bust running backs of the DeShaun Foster type, for example, but it also goes for Hall, who is super insanely fast but still learning effective cornerback technique. He's not a bad cornerback, he's just average. His reputation is helped by the fact that the other cornerbacks on his team are god awful. Compared to them, average and fast looks Pro Bowl-caliber.

Anyway, spurred on by your question I recompiled the data from this year's game charting project with all the games that are finished so far. We've got partial data through Week 13, although the later in the season you go, the more games that are unfinished. So take this stuff with a grain of salt. Also note that this stuff doesn't include pass interference penalties yet.

But... I was surprised to see that Newman's metrics don't come out much better than Hall's metrics. With 56 charted passes, Hall has given up 8.8 yards per pass with a Stop Rate of 55%. Newman, on 39 charted passes, has given up 8.2 yards per pass with a Stop Rate of 56% -- slightly better, but not much. The difference does come out in the last thing you noted, that quarterbacks avoid Newman. We've charted more passes thrown at Hall than at the inferior Jason Webster (52) but far fewer at Newman than at his partner, Anthony Henry (61). Remember not to compare those numbers between teams, since we have different amounts of games charted for each team.

Of course, if you open your Pro Football Prospectus 2006 you'll see that Newman was in the top five in both stats last year, and Hall was emphatically not.

Here's a look at the players who are best in the metrics, based on the data collected so far. We're listing players with a minimum of 30 passes. First, the top 10 in Stop Rate. (Stop Rate measures percentage of plays that do not achieve offensive success by Football Outsiders standards: 45% of yards on first down, 60% on second down, 100% on third down.)

• 32-A.Jones TEN 52 65%
• 28-L.Bodden CLE 31 65%
• 31-R.Marshall CAR 35 63%
• 33-C.Tillman CHI 75 63%
• 21-C.McAlister BAL 53 62%
• 20-C.Gamble CAR 38 61%
• 29-D.Florence SD 55 60%
• 26-L.Sheppard PHI 35 60%
• 22-F.Thomas NO 49 59%
• 36-D.Barrett NYJ 34 59%

The other number listed is number of charted passes. First of all, I should point out one player who ISN'T listed here, because I made the cut-off 30 passes. Antonio Cromartie has a Stop Rate of 69% with 28 charted passes. Wow, was I wrong when I thought the Chargers made a mistake because Cromartie would require years to learn to play corner in the NFL. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Then we've got Pac-Man, who probably should have made the AFC Pro Bowl team over Rashean Mathis, and our boy Leigh Bodden -- remember, this doesn't include the recent games where Bodden played hurt and not up to his previous level. Fred Thomas is still on this list for the same reason, because he played so well early in the year, and this doesn't include those recent games where he got torched like Johnny Storm. I'm a little surprised to see two Panthers on the list, since I thought the secondary was one of the big reasons they didn't live up to their Super Bowl potential this year. And I read some San Diego blog where some guy was talking about Quentin Jammer having a huge year this year. Actually, by our numbers he's the only one of the three San Diego cornerbacks who still qualifies as a weakness.

The top 10 in yards per play:

• 36-D.Barrett NYJ 34 4.5
• 28-L.Bodden CLE 31 4.6
• 22-A.Samuel NE 53 4.7
• 27-W.Harris SF 48 5.0
• 25-R.McQuarters NYG 35 5.0
• 31-N.Vasher CHI 44 5.4
• 31-C.Finnegan TEN 30 5.4
• 32-A.Jones TEN 52 5.5
• 26-L.Sheppard PHI 35 5.5
• 31-R.Marshall CAR 35 5.5

These numbers are a little kooky. David Barrett? R.W. McQuarters has looked horrible recently. Let's see where those guys stand at the end of the year.

I have no problem with Ronde Barber (we all know about his amazing run support) or Sheppard. Based on these numbers, Richard Marshall, the Carolina rookie, should be going to the Pro Bowl, but I don't trust that, not with this incomplete data. Combining this data with what we know from past seasons, I would have given the third NFC spot to Nathan Vasher. Vasher has a lower Stop Rate (57%) than Charles Tillman, but allows fewer yards per pass and opponents throw at Vasher roughly half as often compared to Tillman. Newman would have been a better choice than Hall, certainly, based on what we know from last year. Look, Jason Webster and Allen Rossum are so bad that if DeAngelo Hall was as good as people think, teams would treat those guys the way they treat Darrant Williams when Champ Bailey is on the other side of the field.

To finish up, here's a look at the worst cornerbacks so far by these metrics (remember, though, incomplete data). First, Stop Rate:

• 22-S.Rolle BAL 46 30%
• 22-Tr.Fisher STL 42 33%
• 24-T.Law KC 35 37%
• 27-J.Webster ATL 52 38%
• 23-M.Trufant SEA 55 40%
• 25-K.Wright WAS 42 40%
• 21-J.Fletcher DET 32 41%
• 27-Da.Williams DEN 59 41%
• 23-Q.Jammer SD 64 42%
• 24-I.Taylor PIT 67 43%

And then yards per pass:

• 22-S.Rolle BAL 46 14.1
• 22-Tr.Fisher STL 42 10.7
• 26-T.Hill STL 40 10.7
• 21-J.Fletcher DET 32 10.4
• 20-T.James CIN 42 10.0
• 21-R.Hill TEN 45 10.0
• 27-J.Webster ATL 52 9.9
• 24-T.Law KC 35 9.7
• 29-B.Williams JAC 47 9.6
• 24-I.Taylor PIT 67 9.3

You can be very sure that Bill Belichick, Marty Schottenheimer, and Tony Dungy know who to pick on if/when they face the Ravens in January. Also, Ty Law is over the hill -- his metrics were awful in New York last year too -- and the Rams' defensive backfield is horrific.

Israel Pikholz: The Pittsburgh Steelers broadcasters get all excited whenever Hines Ward scores or makes a first down, saying things like "No one smells the goal line like Hines" or "No one knows the sticks like Hines." How well does Hines really rank?  Is he particularly good at that particular skill or is this just local hype?

Aaron Schatz: This year, at least, the answer is local hype. I went and looked at every wide receiver and tight end this year, with a minimum of 40 passes for wide receivers and 20 for tight ends, to figure out who had the highest percentage of their catches/passes as first downs or touchdowns.

First of all, the league averages:

• 55% of tight end catches and 34% of all passes to tight ends turn into first downs or touchdowns.
• 67% of wide receiver catches and 38% of all passes to wide receivers turn into first downs or touchdowns.

Hines Ward this year has first downs or touchdowns on 67% of his catches and 40% of all passes. Basically average. Of course, these numbers are 2006 only, and Ward, when he was healthy, was having an off year -- mostly because his quarterback is having an off year.  In 2005, Ward had a first down or touchdown on 45% of catches and 75% of passes -- better, but still not the best in the league.

Ironically, while Ward is not at the top of the league this year, both Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington are. For example, here are the leaders in first downs per catch (including touchdowns):

• Devery Henderson, NO: 89%
• Reggie Wayne, IND: 87%
• Santonio Holmes, PIT: 84%
• Eddie Kennison, KC: 83%
• Donte' Stallworth, PHI: 82%
• Nate Washington, PIT: 81%
• Bryant Johnson, ARI: 81%

Bryant Johnson has really had a good year after being god awful his first three seasons.

Now of course, not all passes are caught by the receiver. Here are the leaders in first downs per intended pass:

• Patrick Crayton, DAL: 59%
• Henderson, NO: 58%
• Wayne, IND: 53%
• Eric Parker, SD: 52%
• D.J. Hackett, SEA: 50%
• Marvin Harrison, IND: 50%

Crayton, Henderson, and Hackett are playing very well but they are just over the 40 pass minimum, so Wayne, Harrison, and Eric "The Most Underappreciated Wide Receiver in Football" Parker are the real leaders here. Eric Parker is a catch machine. People don't realize how good he is because he never catches a touchdown, but he never catches a touchdown because San Diego has two of the best red zone weapons in the league, LT and Antonio Gates.

Most of the names at the bottom of the league make sense, except one. Here are the worst players in first downs per catch:

• Peerless Price, BUF: 37%
• Dennis Northcutt, CLE: 40%
• Wes Welker, MIA: 47%
• Drew Carter, CAR: 48%
• Reggie "Dance Machine" Williams, JAC: 50%

A lot of people think of Wes Welker as a possession guy because he comes in on third downs and he's, um, suntan challenged. He's definitely Joey Harrington's checkdown target on first and second downs, but on third downs he's a big-play speed demon.

The worst players in first downs per intended pass:

• Northcutt, CLE: 19%
• Price, BUF: 23%
• Chris Chambers, MIA: 25%
• Brandon Lloyd, WAS: 25%
• Michael Jenkins, ATL: 26%
• Carter, CAR: 26%

Chris Chambers is a talented athlete and an incredibly overrated wide receiver. Bill Barnwell wrote about this a couple weeks ago.

As long as I'm running the numbers, I might as well hit the tight ends.  Here are your leaders in first down per catch:

• Desmond Clark, CHI: 77%
• Tony Gonzalez, KC: 75%
• Dan Campbell, DET: 74%
• Dallas Clark, IND: 73%
• Alge Crumpler, ATL: 71%
• Courtney Anderson, OAK: 71%
• Tony Scheffler, DEN: 70%

It's nice that Tony Scheffler gets to the sticks when he catches the ball, since he doesn't catch the ball very often. He's caught just 38% of intended passes this year, which is just abysmal for a tight end.

The leaders in first downs per intended pass:

• Gonzalez, KC: 54%
• Campbell, DET: 50%
• Bryan Fletcher, IND: 45%
• Daniel Wilcox, BAL: 44%
• Clark, CHI: 44%
• Antonio Gates, SD: 42%
• Owen Daniels, HOU: 42%

And your bottom of the barrel tight ends.  First, first downs per catch:

• Anthony Becht, TB: 27%
• Steve Heiden, CLE: 30%
• Adam Bergen, ARI: 33%
• Anthony Fasano, DAL: 33%
• Alex Smith is not a quarterback, TB: 35%

There is a big gap between those five and the rest of the tight ends, who are all above 44%.  The worst tight ends in first downs per intended pass:

• Jerramy Stevens should shut up, SEA: 18%
• Becht, TB: 20%
• Fasano, DAL: 20%
• Bergen, ARI: 21%
• The lost rookie season of Vernon Davis, SF: 21%
• Smith, TB: 22%

Post by Aaron Schatz

Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"Kansas City's first drive of the game: 10 rushes for 73 yards, one pass for three yards, finished off with a rushing touchdown. Welcome back, Trent Green!"

"Favre out. McNabb out. Bad day for a lot of fantasy teams."

"I know that the Patriots have injuries in the secondary, but really, enough with the Troy Brown thing. That was supposed to be for emergencies only. He has two penalties so far as a defensive back this year, and at one point he was in man coverage on Donald Driver."

"There is a rumor circulating in Philly that the boys were out a little late last night celebrating Donovan McNabb's birthday. They played like they were hung over today."

"Peyton Manning is getting no protection at all."

"Does Mike Nolan fidget this much when he's not wearing a suit?"

"The Seahawks defense just seems to have skipped tackling school this week."

"Now that the Lions are getting their #### kicked by Arizona, can anyone think of any plausible reason that Matt Millen should still have a job?"

"There's no way the Cowboys do not cut Vanderjagt this week."

"Would you like to know who's playing receiver for the Lions now? Josh McCown. Seriously. Josh McCown. Matt Millen spent a Top 10 pick on Mike Williams, and now he can't beat out a quarterback for playing time at wide receiver. And not a particularly fast quarterback, either."

"Now we can go back to talking about the Colts with sanity. We can talk about what they really are: a great offense, a bad defense, atrocious special teams, one of the top teams in the NFL but not a Super Bowl favorite."

"Conversation overheard at NBC: 'Can we un-flex Philly at Indianapolis and go back to Chicago at New England instead?'"

"It turns out that if you have LaDainian Tomlinson on your team, there may be no such thing as a hole too deep. This also goes for my fantasy team, which had a terrible week until about ten minutes ago."

"Igor Olshansky is a buffoon, but even more so, Tom Nalen is a ####."

For more, check out Audibles at the Line at Football Outsiders.

post by Mike Tanier