Ron: OK, many of the Cowboys fans and I are a tad bitter about Terrance Newman not making the Pro Bowl - especially with DeAngelo Hall getting in. We feel that Newman does an excellent job of shutting down whatever side of the field he's on, or whatever receiver he's been assigned to. He doesn't get the picks or huge plays because QB's just don't throw at him and he doesn't give up big plays.

Are we correct? Is Newman better statistically?

Aaron Schatz: DeAngelo Hall is not the worst Pro Bowl selection this year. That would probably be Mack Strong -- Strong would have been a great pick in any of the last few years, but this year his ability to block just disintegrated. Hall is probably the second-worst selection. Hall is an example of a phenomenon that we may be writing more about in the coming months, and in next year's book: people wrongly assume that great athletes are effective football players. This is a huge problem with boom-and-bust running backs of the DeShaun Foster type, for example, but it also goes for Hall, who is super insanely fast but still learning effective cornerback technique. He's not a bad cornerback, he's just average. His reputation is helped by the fact that the other cornerbacks on his team are god awful. Compared to them, average and fast looks Pro Bowl-caliber.

Anyway, spurred on by your question I recompiled the data from this year's game charting project with all the games that are finished so far. We've got partial data through Week 13, although the later in the season you go, the more games that are unfinished. So take this stuff with a grain of salt. Also note that this stuff doesn't include pass interference penalties yet.

But... I was surprised to see that Newman's metrics don't come out much better than Hall's metrics. With 56 charted passes, Hall has given up 8.8 yards per pass with a Stop Rate of 55%. Newman, on 39 charted passes, has given up 8.2 yards per pass with a Stop Rate of 56% -- slightly better, but not much. The difference does come out in the last thing you noted, that quarterbacks avoid Newman. We've charted more passes thrown at Hall than at the inferior Jason Webster (52) but far fewer at Newman than at his partner, Anthony Henry (61). Remember not to compare those numbers between teams, since we have different amounts of games charted for each team.

Of course, if you open your Pro Football Prospectus 2006 you'll see that Newman was in the top five in both stats last year, and Hall was emphatically not.

Here's a look at the players who are best in the metrics, based on the data collected so far. We're listing players with a minimum of 30 passes. First, the top 10 in Stop Rate. (Stop Rate measures percentage of plays that do not achieve offensive success by Football Outsiders standards: 45% of yards on first down, 60% on second down, 100% on third down.)

• 32-A.Jones TEN 52 65%
• 28-L.Bodden CLE 31 65%
• 31-R.Marshall CAR 35 63%
• 33-C.Tillman CHI 75 63%
• 21-C.McAlister BAL 53 62%
• 20-C.Gamble CAR 38 61%
• 29-D.Florence SD 55 60%
• 26-L.Sheppard PHI 35 60%
• 22-F.Thomas NO 49 59%
• 36-D.Barrett NYJ 34 59%

The other number listed is number of charted passes. First of all, I should point out one player who ISN'T listed here, because I made the cut-off 30 passes. Antonio Cromartie has a Stop Rate of 69% with 28 charted passes. Wow, was I wrong when I thought the Chargers made a mistake because Cromartie would require years to learn to play corner in the NFL. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Then we've got Pac-Man, who probably should have made the AFC Pro Bowl team over Rashean Mathis, and our boy Leigh Bodden -- remember, this doesn't include the recent games where Bodden played hurt and not up to his previous level. Fred Thomas is still on this list for the same reason, because he played so well early in the year, and this doesn't include those recent games where he got torched like Johnny Storm. I'm a little surprised to see two Panthers on the list, since I thought the secondary was one of the big reasons they didn't live up to their Super Bowl potential this year. And I read some San Diego blog where some guy was talking about Quentin Jammer having a huge year this year. Actually, by our numbers he's the only one of the three San Diego cornerbacks who still qualifies as a weakness.

The top 10 in yards per play:

• 36-D.Barrett NYJ 34 4.5
• 28-L.Bodden CLE 31 4.6
• 22-A.Samuel NE 53 4.7
• 27-W.Harris SF 48 5.0
• 25-R.McQuarters NYG 35 5.0
• 31-N.Vasher CHI 44 5.4
• 31-C.Finnegan TEN 30 5.4
• 32-A.Jones TEN 52 5.5
• 26-L.Sheppard PHI 35 5.5
• 31-R.Marshall CAR 35 5.5

These numbers are a little kooky. David Barrett? R.W. McQuarters has looked horrible recently. Let's see where those guys stand at the end of the year.

I have no problem with Ronde Barber (we all know about his amazing run support) or Sheppard. Based on these numbers, Richard Marshall, the Carolina rookie, should be going to the Pro Bowl, but I don't trust that, not with this incomplete data. Combining this data with what we know from past seasons, I would have given the third NFC spot to Nathan Vasher. Vasher has a lower Stop Rate (57%) than Charles Tillman, but allows fewer yards per pass and opponents throw at Vasher roughly half as often compared to Tillman. Newman would have been a better choice than Hall, certainly, based on what we know from last year. Look, Jason Webster and Allen Rossum are so bad that if DeAngelo Hall was as good as people think, teams would treat those guys the way they treat Darrant Williams when Champ Bailey is on the other side of the field.

To finish up, here's a look at the worst cornerbacks so far by these metrics (remember, though, incomplete data). First, Stop Rate:

• 22-S.Rolle BAL 46 30%
• 22-Tr.Fisher STL 42 33%
• 24-T.Law KC 35 37%
• 27-J.Webster ATL 52 38%
• 23-M.Trufant SEA 55 40%
• 25-K.Wright WAS 42 40%
• 21-J.Fletcher DET 32 41%
• 27-Da.Williams DEN 59 41%
• 23-Q.Jammer SD 64 42%
• 24-I.Taylor PIT 67 43%

And then yards per pass:

• 22-S.Rolle BAL 46 14.1
• 22-Tr.Fisher STL 42 10.7
• 26-T.Hill STL 40 10.7
• 21-J.Fletcher DET 32 10.4
• 20-T.James CIN 42 10.0
• 21-R.Hill TEN 45 10.0
• 27-J.Webster ATL 52 9.9
• 24-T.Law KC 35 9.7
• 29-B.Williams JAC 47 9.6
• 24-I.Taylor PIT 67 9.3

You can be very sure that Bill Belichick, Marty Schottenheimer, and Tony Dungy know who to pick on if/when they face the Ravens in January. Also, Ty Law is over the hill -- his metrics were awful in New York last year too -- and the Rams' defensive backfield is horrific.

The Bengals and Ravens are playing in tonight's NFL Network game (now available to 3% of American cable subscribers!). It just so happens that last night, while filling holes in our game charting data, I did the first half of the first Bengals-Ravens game, back in Week 9. I thought I would share some notes on things to look for tonight.

Samari Rolle was usually in man coverage on Chad Johnson and was giving him a cushion larger than Terrell Owens' ego. I wonder if this has anything to do with that early charting data, which indicated that Rolle has been giving up a ton of huge plays this season. Do the coaches see that he's declined, and move him back so he won't get beat deep? Is he actually playing zone, but he's just really bad at it? It's always hard to tell without knowing what the actual play calls are.

The Bengals like to run a defensive play where they start by rushing four, but after two steps, right defensive tackle John Thornton will drop into coverage. I noticed this play three times; the Ravens caught two of those three passes, each for nine yards. One of them was a great example of two teams thinking entirely different things. Third-and-6, and the Bengals rush three after Thornton has dropped off. The Ravens are in an empty backfield set but leave both tight ends back to block in max protect, so you have three rushing seven. Somehow, even though there are eight defenders in zone coverage and only three receivers, Steve McNair finds Michael Clayton standing right in front of linebacker Andre Frazier for a first down.

The Bengals like to use tight end Reggie Kelly as a fullback. Sometimes he's a straight-out fullback. Other times he's in a position that I guess is supposed to be H-back, but he's farther back from the offensive line than other H-backs I've seen. In the charting data, I've been marking that as offset I-formation. I can't tell if it is supposed to be two-TE or not. These are the things that try the souls of game charters.

This is the last game where Carson Palmer's mechanics still seem to be a little off because of the knee surgery. He sailed some passes badly by throwing slightly too soon and lifting his foot when he felt pass pressure. Chad Johnson made a leaping catch on one of them for a 15-yard gain. From Week 10 on, Palmer's been back to his fabulous 2005 self.

Rudi Johnson's blitz pickup in this game was terrible, just awful. He led directly to one sack and one play where Bart Scott whacked Palmer big time. Scott is awesome, he was everywhere in this game. He should get some Defensive Player of the Year talk, as should Adalius Thomas.

Post by Aaron Schatz

This is the second year of the Football Outsiders game charting project, where we have an army of volunteers charting new stats during games that aren't kept in the standard play-by-play. We can't use these stats much during the season, because the game charting lags behind the actual games by at least a week, usually more. But now that we have eight weeks mostly charted, I thought it would be fun to look at some of the data to see what we can find.

We'll start with yards per pass allowed by defensive backs. This is one of two stats we used to track DBs in Pro Football Prospectus 2006. The other one was Stop Rate, or the percentage of passes against a defensive back that were successful. Both stats are useful -- for example, in Indianapolis, Nick Harper has a great yards per pass allowed and a terrible Stop Rate, while Jason David has a good Stop Rate and awful yards per pass allowed. Harper gives up more first downs, but when David gets beat, he gets beat BADLY.

Keep in mind that this data is really preliminary. Really, really preliminary. A number of games from Weeks 4-8 still aren't finished, and this doesn't include Weeks 9-10 at all. These numbers include passes that are incomplete for a lot of reasons that have nothing to do with the defensive backs, although we've removed quarterbacks hit while throwing and passes tipped/batted down at the line. Also remember that there isn't much difference between being ranked first and being ranked ninth -- the difference is between being ranked in the top ten vs. the bottom half of the league, or something like that.

That being said, let's look at yards per pass allowed, according to our charters. Here are the top dozen defensive backs so far with at least 10 passes charted. The numbers represent charted passes and net yards per pass.

1. 43-T.Polamalu PIT 12 1.8
2. 38-T.Poole OAK 14 2.1
3. 42-D.Sharper MIN 12 3.0
4. 25-K.Rhodes NYJ 15 3.9
5. 20-B.Dawkins PHI 18 3.9
6. 22-F.Thomas NO 43 4.0
7. 25-A.Cromartie SD 17 4.2
8. 28-L.Bodden CLE 23 4.3
9. 40-M.Williams CIN 12 4.3
10. 21-B.Pool CLE 10 4.4
11. 24-M.Huff OAK 10 4.4

That's certainly a mix of surprises and non-surprises. Let's start with the non-surprises., We've written many times that Leigh Bodden is one of the top corners in the league, and the most ignored by the press. Tory Polamalu is good and rarely plays deep, a good combination for this stat. Darren Sharper was near the top for safeties last year. Dawkins is a Pro Bowler. Below this list but still in the top 20 are Champ Bailey, Adrian Wilson, Deltha O'Neal, and Asante Samuel.

Now the surprises. Tyrone Poole???? Yes, really. We made fun of Oakland for picking up the veteran cornerbacks who sucked in New England last year, but actually only Duane Starks sucked last year -- Poole was just injured. I doubt he's really going to be this good all year, but this is not an issue of Poole only playing short or something -- three of the incompletes are passes of 30 yards or more. And he's allowing less than three yards after catch on the few completes he has allowed, none of which went more than five yards in the air. Seriously.

Let's see who else -- New Orleans should be happy to get Fred Thomas back from his hamstring injury. Thomas also did far better than Mike McKenzie in this stat for 2005. Yes, Jets safety Kerry Rhodes did well in this stat last year too, believe it or not. Antonio Cromartie really is having a shockingly good rookie year, and he's not the only rookie that we were completely wrong about -- Donte Whitner is in the top 20 too. Mea culpa. Michael Huff is also playing well, and Brodney Pool is another part of the emerging Cleveland defense.

OK, now the flip side.

1. 27-R.Whitaker MIN 11 15.4
2. 21-O.Atogwe STL 10 14.6
3. 22-S.Rolle BAL 29 14.2
4. 20-M.Adams SF 16 14.1
5. 23-J.Phillips TB 14 13.1
6. 22-M.Manuel GB 13 12.8
7. 32-M.Lewis PHI 14 12.6
8. 20-E.Reed BAL 11 12.4
9. 26-D.Landry BAL 12 12.2
10. 26-E.Wilson NE 16 12.1

What the hell are all these Ravens doing here? Aren't they the best defense in football so far? Remember -- this doesn't include the game against Tennessee, and every Baltimore game from Week 1-8 is fully charted except for portions of Week 4. I seriously have no idea what's up here. Reed was very good in this stat last year. Samari Rolle was much better than Chris McAlister last year, but this year, McAlister is allowing just 6.2 yards per pass. We have 22 of 29 passes with Rolle in coverage listed as complete, including a 72-yard touchdown to Steve Smith, a 58-yard touchdown to Braylon Edwards, a 47-yard touchdown to Marques Colston. One of the two interceptions was actually by Bart Scott, and three of the five incompletes are listed as drops!

Is Rolle just losing it? It seems like it should be a fluke, but the cornerback numbers are a lot easier to trust than the safety numbers, because there are so many more passes charted with cornerbacks as the defenders in coverage. I think everyone else on that list is a safety. Other cornerbacks who do poorly in this stat are Terry Cousin, Gary Baxter (surprise!), Brian Williams (also surprise!), Ahmad Carroll (completely not a surprise!) and Tory James. At least quarterbacks taking on Cincinnati know who they should be throwing on.

By the way, Dallas safety Pat Watkins barely misses the list because he only has nine charted passes, but he allowed a mind-blowingly awful 21.6 yards per pass. Has he considered becoming a linebacker, perhaps?

Post by Aaron Schatz