The Patriots have traded for Randy Moss, giving Tom Brady by far the best receiver he has ever had and thereby guaranteeing the Patriots another Super Bowl. That will be the conventional wisdom. The only red flag anyone will bring up is Moss' character concerns and whether he can fit into the team-first approach in New England. Maybe that is an issue (it certainly was not for Corey Dillon), but a bigger problem could be that Moss is simply no longer a star player.

Similarity scores are a tool used to compare people to other players who posted similar numbers over a given time period. A quick glance at Moss’ three-year similarity profile is very alarming. (Only yards are listed, but similarity scores also compare catches, touchdowns, and average yards per catch.)

Name                         Years             Yards Yr 1-3         Age +1         G+1 Rec +1 Yds+1
Randy Moss             2004-06          767, 1005, 553     30
Drew Pearson         1978-80          714, 1026, 568     30             16     38     614
Sam McCullum         1979-81         739, 874, 567       30             11*   21*    233*
James Jett                 1997-99         804, 882, 552       30             11     20     356
Freddie Solomon     1980-82         658, 969, 574*     30             13     31     662
Ernie Jones             1990-92           724, 957, 559       29             10     5       56
Nat Moore                 1978-80         645, 840, 564        30             13     26     452
Andre Rison             1996-98         593, 1092, 542      32             15     21     218
Webster Slaughter 1990-92          847, 906, 486        29             14     77     904
Antonio Freeman     2000-02         912, 818, 600       31             15     14     141
Ernest Givins            1992-94          787, 887, 521       31              9      29    280
Earnest Gray             1982-84          757*, 1139, 529  28              5        3     22

(*Strike-adjusted) 

The names on the left are acceptable if not overly impressive. More than half had over 7,000 receiving yards in their careers. The numbers on the right represent the next season after the similar three-year stretch. Only one receiver had more than 700 yards. Some of these guys had another good season or two in them, but nobody hit 1,000 yards again.

Moss is a different animal because his peak was higher even than that of Rison or Pearson. The other assumption is that Oakland was too dysfunctional and/or Moss just did not care when he was there. Of course, both Doug Gabriel and Ronald Curry had success there the past two seasons. Gabriel, of course, came to the Patriots a season ago and struggled to get consistent playing time. Curry was actually the leading receiver on the Raiders last season.

Tom Brady is a better quarterback than Aaron Brooks, Andrew Walter, and Kerry Collins put together, but this is not Randy Moss circa 2002. Moss averaged a whopping 3.3 catches per game last season, and the once-dominant red zone threat scored just three touchdowns. He caught only 43% of the passes intended for him.

The truth is that Moss is 30 years old, and he always relied heavily on his speed to get open. He is not the physical receiver that Terrell Owens is or the master route-runner that Marvin Harrison is. As such, he is not likely to age gracefully. Moss always played better on the fast track of the Metrodome, so it is good news that the Patriots have gotten rid of their grass field.

Is Randy Moss an upgrade for the Patriots? Certainly, considering Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell were their second and third receivers. But, I think it is a little wishful thinking to see Moss as a better player than Deion Branch at this point in his career. Branch also would have been a better fit opposite Donte Stallworth than the supposed deep threat in Moss. Only once in the last six years has Moss caught 60% of the passes intended for him, a total Branch hit three times in four years with the Patriots.

Still, the Patriots have to be commended for playing this one right. They unloaded Branch at the height of his value for a first-round pick and now steal Moss away for a fourth-round pick. His reputation alone should help open up the running game and get Stallworth one-on-one opportunities. Moss could easily get his 900 yards, 65 catches, and eight touchdowns, and the Patriots will be a better team. Just don't expect Moss to team with Brady to form some sort of Montana-Rice unstoppable duo.

Post by Ned Macey

Here we are three games into the 2006 season, and Randy Moss is making noise about being traded again. He's coming off two straight down years, and while it's still early, so far he only has 7 catches for 84 yards and a single touchdown. Is Randy Moss done as an elite receiver?

In Moss's defense, a lot of his problems are not his own. He's suffered with poor quarterbacks in Oakland for a year and a half now. Seven catches and 84 receiving yards both actually lead the team this year. Moss has caught just 35 percent of passes thrown in his direction, and that's a number that's likely to improve over time. But historically, receivers with career patterns similar to Moss have a very poor track record.

I ran our three-year similarty scores on Randy's 2003-2005 seasons. Now, standard caveats apply -- we're talking about standard NFL stats, not our advanced stats. These stats aren't adjusted for opponent, or for the quality of each player's quarterback or team, or for specific issues in each player's career, like injuries. But here are the players most similar to Moss over a three-year span, normalized to the offensive environment of each season:

John Jefferson (1980-1982*): One more 800-yard season, out of the league by age 30.
Mike Quick (1985-1987*): Only played 18 more NFL games with 871 total yards, out of the league by age 32.
Antonio Freeman (1998-2000): Never topped 820 yards again, out of the league by age 32.
Lynn Swann (1978-1980): Never topped 600 yards again, out of the league by age 31.
Carl Pickens (1996-1998): Never topped 800 yards again, out of the league by age 31.
Dwight Clark (1982*-1984): Never topped 800 yards again, out of the league by age 31.
Isaac Bruce (2000-2002): Had at least two more productive seasons.
Carlos Carson (1983-1985): Injured in 1986, over 1,000 yards during strike year of 1987, then faded out. Out of the league by age 32.
Michael Irvin (1995-1997): One more 1,000-yard year, out of the league by 2000. May not be a good comparison because while his stats are very similar, he was three years older than Moss during the years being compared.
Terrence Mathis (1994-1996): 800 yards in 1997, then topped 1,000 yards again in 1998 and 1999. Played until age 35.

Again, every player listed here was in different circumstances. But this list features a lot of guys who, like Randy Moss, had huge years in their mid-20's, and most of them never recovered after their performance slid in their late-20's. By the way, Moss is 29 this year.

*1982 and 1987 pro-rated for strike.

Post by Aaron Schatz