It's July, and nothing, nada, diddly-squat is happening in the NFL. That hasn't stopped me from watching the NFL Network every day. Watching NFLN in July is like watching the Weather Channel on a clear day. It's repetitive, and there's nothing to talk about, but the pretty colors and the cool jazz keep you tuned in.

Here's what I've learned.

In their continuing effort to spin straw into gold, the Saints acquired former Eagles linebacker Dhancin' Dhani Jones to help bolster their run defense. Wow, I wrote that sentence without snickering. To get into the Big Easy spirit, Jones may change his victory celebration from Air Banjo to Air Trombone; he'll toot the imaginary horn after he makes an important tackle (in other words, once every four games). Before signing with the Saints, Jones said he would work for Al Gore as an environmental activist. I feel bad for the Saints defense, but on the flip side, I'm suddenly optimistic about the giant panda.

Jones was on NFLN on Friday reciting poetry. Remember that awkward moment when your girlfriend opened her journal and shared her soul-bearing blank verse with you? ("Here I sit, listening to Morrissey, my heart an empty shell.") Now imagine your girlfriend weighing 230 pounds and wearing a bowtie. That's what NFLN was like on Friday.

In other Saints news, a group of Saintsations cheerleaders has been touring Iraq. The troupe performs at military bases around the Middle East, traveling from gig to gig in Black Hawk helicopters. Talk about Bombshells over Baghdad. The tour has been going smoothly except for one hitch. At a mobile army surgical hospital, a hairy Lebanese corporal donned a miniskirt and pompoms and attempted to sneak off with the girls. He was captured and sentenced to room with Jones in training camp.

The Falcons signed NFL Europa receiver Noriaki Kinoshita, who if he makes the team will be the first player born in Japan to play in the NFL. Bobby Petrino was initially excited by the move, then disappointed to learn that Kinoshita cannot throw a Gyroball. Michael Vick and other Falcons were also disappointed that the long time Amsterdam Admiral didn't smuggle any extra goodies with him from overseas. They hoped Kinoshita could score one of those hard-to-find Nintendo Wii systems. What were you thinking?

For months, NFLN has been running an American Heart Association public service announcement featuring Steve Smith and a bunch of kids running, skating, and swimming. The "Get Up and Move" spots were fast-paced and good-natured efforts to encourage kids to exercise, and Smith looked comfortable in front of the camera. Recently, the PSA was edited: Steve Smith is out, with Matt Leinart in his place. Leinart displays all of the charisma of a department store mannequin and reads his few lines as though he's translating on the fly from Lebanese. This guy is supposed to be "Hollywood"? On camera, he's barely Glendale.

Watching the Smith PSAs made my son want to swim the English Channel and hang glide over the Grand Canyon. But when he saw Leinart, he grabbed a crate a Pop Tarts and a blanket and settled in for a Spongebob marathon. It's time to retire the Leinart ads. The health of our children is at stake.

Don't get me wrong. I like Dhani Jones. He's a Renaissance man. The trouble is, they didn't have football in the Renaissance.

In non-NFLN news, the Sporting News season preview is out, and the otherwise solid publication predicts that the Cowboys will go 13-3 this season. Yes, 13-3. Who is making these predictions … Jon Kitna? Seriously, for the Lions to win 11 games (as predicted by the Oracle of Kitna) and the Cowboys to win 13, the Vikings will have to lose about 34 games.

Speaking of the sports bible, Donovan McNabb's rehabilitation from an ACL tear is on schedule. The Sporting News reported a few weeks ago that McNabb's regimen includes games of tag to improve agility and stop-start strength in the knee. Tag is no laughing matter: the collective bargaining agreement strictly prohibits Kick the Can, and rumor has it that Eric Mangini keeps his players in shape with a vigorous Red Light, Green Light drill. Donovan was apparently playing traditional tag, not freeze tag or TV tag ("Grey's Anatomy! You can't touch me!") TSN reports that at one point, a cornered McNabb improvised, stood at attention, and declared, "I'm a tree. You can't tag a tree." There's no truth to the rumor, however, that McNabb was hanging out with Kinoshita in Amsterdam.

I just realized that my Spell Checker is happily accepting "Kinoshita" without a little red underline. A quick Google search reveals a stunning model named Ayumi Kinoshita, a film director named Keisuki Kinoshita, a hotel named Casa Kinoshita in San Miguel, Mexico, and an NFL Europa receiver who was just signed by the Falcons. Apparently, Kinoshita is a fairly common name in Japan, and possibly Mexico. I'm told Tanier is pretty common in France, but Spell Checker never accepted it until I added it. Maybe if I could throw a Gyroball, or something.

Rookie tight end Greg Olsen signed a contract with the Bears. Olsen is eager to be in camp on time; he wants to master his timing with Rex Grossman. When he does, he'll be the first.

Okay, I'll cop: I watched a lot of NFLN on Friday because I thought I would be on. Indie filmmaker Tim Carr was hawking his movie "Leaf, an Almost True Story," and I appear in the film as a football humorist/historian. Yep, a stretch. Sadly, I wasn't in the clip Carr used, probably because I have the screen charisma of Matt Leinart.

Mike Nolan and Jack Del Rio have once again gotten league permission to wear cheap-looking suits designed by a sneaker company during games. The NFL should adopt a rule that if a coach wears a sneaker suit, then his players must wear Armani cleats. I don't have a problem with suits per se, and I know Nolan wears one as a tribute to his sick father, but I wish these guys were allowed to line up their own formalwear endorsements like NBA coaches. The typical NBA coach looks like who he is: a high-profile executive for a successful multi-million dollar corporation. The sneaker suits make Nolan and Del Rio look like Salesmen of the Month at the local used Hyundai dealership.

It could be worse, though. Rumor has it that liberal firebrand Michael Moore is working on a new film called "Slobbo," an expose on how Bill Belichick's wardrobe choices have unintended consequences for low-wage garment industry employees. In one of the film's most dramatic scenes, Moore and Belichick visit a dry cleaner for the first time in their lives.

Aaron would be miffed if I didn't mention that Football Prospectus will be out in just two weeks. A quick look at the Amazon sales board on Friday found us ranked 1,505th among books, pretty darn good for two weeks before the drop date. I told Aaron that we should call it Football Prospectus and the Deathly Hallows, but the muggle never listens to me. We're ranked 30th in sports books. Take that, Inner Game of Tennis! Be sure to check us out, even if sobriety prevents us from predicting a 13-3 season for the Cowboys or 11-5 season for the Lions.

Finally, as the father of two small children, I watch nothing but kiddie programming when I am not glued to NFL Network. I also see all of the superhero movies. I saw Spider-Man 3 and was disturbed by the amount of time Peter Parker spent dancing in the movie. I saw Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, and shielded my eyes as Reed Richards performed an elaborate dance at a New York club. Superheroes should not dance. Remember the Batutsi? Be glad you don't.

I bring this up because I haven't seen Transformers yet, but I heard a song from the soundtrack by the Goo Goo Dolls. It's a ballad. Worse yet, it is in 3/4 time, making it a waltz. A Giant Robot that Turns into Motorized Vehicle to Fight Evil Waltz. Mark my word, if champagne bubbles start floating and Optimus Prime starts waltzing in that movie, I am taking my kids and marching right out of the theater.

And if old Optimus starts playing Air Banjo or reciting poetry, I'm demanding a refund.

post by Mike Tanier

Mount Ephraim, NJ -- Insurance adjuster Brad Anderson broke out in a cold sweat while surfing the Internet on Monday afternoon. He felt a tingling in his neck. He feared he was having a heart attack.

"I read on Pro Football Talk that the Eagles were going to trade for a Takeo Spikes," he said. "A linebacker. An actual starting linebacker. Suddenly, I saw spots in front of my eyes." Alertly, he took a glycerine tablet and called 9-1-1. When he arrived at the hospital, he found that he was just one of hundreds of Eagles fans hospitalized by the team's recent spurt of off-season activity. The problem has become so widespread that the Center for Disease Control had dubbed it SAOSSD: Surprisingly Active Off-Season Stress Disorder.

"I've never seen anything like this," said Dr. James Albright of the newly opened Free Agency Trauma Center at Einstein Medical Center. "Over the last two weeks, we've treated dozens of patients for shock and heart palpitations. But when the Spikes trade hit, our ER looked like a M*A*S*H unit. There were guys in green shirts everywhere, just kind of flailing around and twitching."

The outbreak began when the Eagles signed receiver Kevin Curtis two weeks ago. SAOSSD cases escalated when the team signed Montae Reagor. But the Spikes deal created a flashover situation. "It was too much, too soon," Albright explained. "In Washington, they are inoculated against this kind of off-season. But March in Philadelphia is usually the time to debate the merits of Jabar Gaffney or hail the return of Shawn Barber. The affect on Philly fans is like shoveling 35 inches of snow after a winter without physical exertion. It's potentially dangerous."

Dr. Sylvester Harczynski agrees. Harczynski owns a degree in Philadelphia Fan Psychology from Temple University, a degree he earned by listening to local sports talk radio until he was declared clinically insane (17.5 minutes). "The Eagles lulled their fans into a false sense of security by letting Jeff Garcia, Rod Hood, and Donte Stallworth walk, then replacing them with Bethel Johnson. Fans were ready to go about their early spring business: complaining about the Phillies and vilifying Donovan McNabb. But the Curtis, Reagor, and Spikes deals created a whiplash effect."

The effect can be seen all over the Philadelphia area. "I can't handle this. I can't handle this," Upper Darby bartender Joe Klein said while hyperventilating into a paper bag. "I mean, they needed receivers and defenders, and they signed receivers and defenders. It just doesn't make sense." Klein was treated at Einstein and released later in the day. "I don't know what came over me. I mean, I handled the Terrell Owens-Jevon Kearse off-season well. I guess my resistance was lowered by one too many Matt Schobel signings."

Albright warns that if you are an Eagles fan who is feeling the onset of SAOSSD, you should take steps to ward off an all-out attack. First, lie down. Second, avoid the Philadelphia Daily News at all costs. Finally, download old press conferences in which Andy Reid says "I'm happy with Greg Lewis and Hank Baskett as my wide receivers," or "Dhani Jones is doing a fine job at linebacker." Most of all, says Allbright, "don't try to be a hero. Don't read mock drafts or search the Internet for other trade rumors. Remember that other teams sign free agents all the time, and that it is a natural part of football."

Anderson did his best to heed Albright's advice, but SAOSSD is a pernicious illness. "It's no big deal, really," Anderson said while in the recover room. "A decent wide receiver. Another small defensive tackle. A good-but-often injured linebacker. It's not like they filled their need for a power back behind Brian Westbrook. Now if they drafter Brian Leonard … wow … a Rutgers guy … big all-purpose runner … that would be … ugh … uggggh," Anderson was quickly rushed to the emergency room and treated with exposure to 50 minutes of Mike McMahon highlights.

Donte' Stallworth was the 13th overall pick in the 2002 NFL Draft. He had a good rookie year with the Saints, catching 42 passes for 594 yards and 8 touchdowns. He took a step backwards in his second year, with just 485 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had 767 yards and 5 touchdowns his third year, which is an average performance for a second receiver and certainly not what you expect from a first-round pick in his third season, the mythological WR "breakout year."

It looked like Stallworth was stagnating, like perhaps he wasn't worth that top draft pick. In reality, looking back we know the entire Saints offense was stagnating in 2003-2004, except for Joe Horn. Stallworth stepped it up in 2005 when Horn got injured, with nearly 1,000 yards. Then the Saints dealt him to Philadelphia, and while he had injury issues, he also had 725 yards on just 32 catches, for a huge average of 19.1 yards per reception.

Now that Stallworth has signed with the Patriots, I decided to run similarity scores on him, to see what the Patriots might be getting. You'll find a basic explanation of similarity scores here. Once again, a reminder that similarity scores don't account for the quality of your teammates or your defensive opposition.

The players with the most similar three-year spans to Donte' Stallworth are an interesting mix of guys who never got past injury issues and guys who just exploded on the league the following year.

Oddly, the most similar player is Antonio Bryant 2004-2006, who is still out there as a free agent. Then you get this top 10 (listed year is third year of span):

1. Art Monk, 1983 Redskins
2. Wayne Chrebet, 1999 Jets
3. Darnay Scott, 1998 Bengals
4. Ricky Proehl, 1994 Cardinals
5. Marvin Harrison, 1998 Colts
6. Robert Clark, 1991 Lions
7. Stephone Paige, 1989 Chiefs
8. Justin McCareins, 2005 Jets
9. Jerry Butler, 1982 Bills
10. Ernie Jones, 1992 Cardinals

Four of these guys had 1,000 yards the following season. Marvin Harrison is one of the greatest receivers ever. Art Monk is the most argued-about non-Hall of Famer. Darnay Scott and Stephone Paige both had major injury issues after their one big 1,000-yard season.

Wayne Chrebet was a dependable second wideout for the rest of his career.

On the other hand, Robert Clark played three more games and disappeared, Ernie Jones played ten more games and disappeared, Ricky Proehl missed half the next season with an injury, and Jerry Butler missed a season and a half with injuries.

It seems odd to compare Harrison's third season with Stallworth's fifth season, but Stallworth was a rookie at 22, Harrison at 24. Stallworth, Monk, and Harrison are all 26 in the third year of this span. Stallworth was the 13th overall pick, Monk was 18th overall, and Harrison was 19th overall. It also seems strange to compare Stallworth to these guys after a year with 19.1 yards per reception, but that number is out of line with his career -- he had just 13.4 yards per reception the two years previous.

What's the other thing that Marvin Harrison in 1998 had in common with Stallworth in 2006? Yes, a new quarterback. Peyton Manning was a rookie in 1998 and was one of the best quarterbacks in the league by 1999. Stallworth went from Aaron Brooks in 2005 to Donovan McNabb in 2006, and now to Tom Brady -- one of the top three quarterbacks in the league -- in 2007.

On the other hand, Marvin Harrison has never been rumored to be in the NFL's substance abuse program, has he?

Stallworth's similarities actually look better if you look at shorter spans of time. The most similar players over two years include Plaxico Burress right before he went to the Giants, Lynn Swann, Monk, Anthony Carter two years after the USFL, Anthony Miller, Cris Carter, Stanley Morgan, and -- interesting irony -- Deion Branch, 2005-2006. Branch aside, those players averaged 1,060 yards and 7.3 touchdowns the next season.

Could Tom Brady possibly have here the go-to receiver for the rest of his career? Is Donte' Stallworth better than any of us thought? Actually, given the one-year make-good nature of the contract, the Patriots would probably be happy just getting the Stephone Paige of 1990.

Oh, and while we're at it, here's a look at similarities for the other new Patriots wideout, Wes Welker:

1. Jeff Groth, 1982 Saints
2. Gerald Carter, 1983 Bucs
3. J.T. Smith, 1980 Chiefs
4. Steve Kreider, 1981 Bengals
5. Johnnie Morton, 1996 Lions
6. Dante Hall, 2003 Chiefs
7. Mike Jones, 1985 Vikings
8. Desmond Howard, 1994 Redskins
9. Tracy Porter, 1984 Colts
10. Robert Brooks, 1994 Packers
    

Robert Brooks had 1,500 yards the next year, but otherwise Johnnie Morton is the only guy in Welker's top 20 who had more than one year with 800 receiving yards. I think the Pats overpaid for a guy who may not really be a starting wide receiver. Now that Stallworth is around, he probably won't be. I still like Jabar Gaffney to be big as Stallworth's partner in 2007.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Here's what the FO staff was talking about during the games on Saturday and Sunday:

"Man, this is making me nostalgic for the days before Jamal Lewis got all used up, when he was really good and I didn't make fun of him all the time."

"Does Indy ever go max protect? Today might be a good day for it."

"When did Marty Schottenheimer become head coach of the Ravens? The Baltimore offense is exhibiting every kind of conservative look that makes people criticize Martyball. Sitting on the ball at the end of the half was just one of many examples."

"Peyton Manning has discovered mobility."

"I've watched 95% of the Colts games for the past four years, and I can't remember seeing a flea flicker."

"Well, for a second there, I thought Brian Billick had his balls reattached, but he changed his mind and punted."

"The only question about the Colts defense playing well is, if they could play like this, WHY DIDN'T THEY FOR THE ENTIRE REGULAR SEASON?"

"This is the best tackling, hardest hitting Colts defense I've seen this year. I think they've found their ... SWAGGER."

"Hmmm...a moronic holding call by Bill Leavy's crew early in the fourth quarter that pretty much killed a huge drive? In the postseason? I've never seen THAT before!"

"This game reminds me of last year's Colts-Steelers playoff game. The underdog comes in, pretty much controls the game, and pulls out the win. And you know the common link? Dan Dierdorf. That's right, if you're an underdog playoff team playing in the AFC Divisional game, you might want to that request Dierdorf does the game."

"Reggie Bush. I mean, wow. He's not supposed to be able to do that in the NFL."

"This is a great game between two very good teams."

"Can anyone think of a player who's changed his style as dramatically as Deuce McAllister? He's a totally different back. Maybe someone should tear DeShaun Foster's ACL."

"Great response by the Saints defense after the Reggie Bush turnover. Just when you think everyone in the stadium was probably thinking, 'oh,that's right, we're the Saints' they come up with a stop"

"It came down to that second-and-1. The Eagles should have been able to push that in for a touchdown, and they couldn't. The Saints are just an amazing story. I think they're going to the Super Bowl."

"Andy Reid made a big mistake punting. The defense was tired. They had a better chance of making that fourth-and-15 than they did of keeping the Saints from a first down AND then scoring in the final 40 seconds or whatever would be left after that."

"As long as the Seahawks take advantage of every possible Bears mistake, they have a chance."

"In my head, I'm hearing Stu Nahan say, 'I’ve got to give that round to Balboa.' The third quarter has been Seattle's.

"Every time the Seahawks get a good run from Alexander, they go back to him and get stuffed. I'd call that a tendency, Mr. Holmgren!"

"Hell of a kick by Robbie Gould."

"Did the Chargers stop blitzing on that touchdown drive at the end of the half? They couldn't get any pressure, and it seemed like their pass rush was a lot less diverse and creative than the rest of the half."

Why did Marty go for it on fourth-and-11 from the 30? I believe in going for it on fourth but 11? You spent a third round pick on Nate Kaeding and don't feel you can trust him from 48 yards?

"The Chargers receivers pretty much suck today."

"Tom Brady is awful today. Just terrible. He threw the second INT off his back foot, and he just missed a wide open Ben Watson. He's getting time to throw and he just looks awful."

"Clutch interception by Brady."

"Yep. Belichick is a genius for calling the pick-and-fumble on 4th-and-5. And Schottenheimer's a choke artist for not anticipating it"

"This game is amazing. It really feels like the Chargers have annihilated the Patriots, yet as I write this it's a two-point conversion away from being tied."

"What can you say about Stephen Gostkowski? He's money in the playoffs."

Read more at FootballOutsiders.com. 

post by Mike Tanier

Before this weekend's playoff games, let's take one more look at the (incomplete) Football Outsiders game charting data. Again: Data incomplete, cleaning not finished, do not take as gospel, etc.

One thing we ask people to mark down is the number of pass rushers and blockers on any pass play (including scrambles). We learned last year that teams send an extra pass rusher so often than five doesn't really count as a blitz anymore. Six or more is when the defense is giving up on coverage to get to the quarterback.

Here's the kooky thing: the teams we have listed as blitzing the most this year are completely different from the teams we have listed as blitzing the most in 2005. Perhaps I'm measuring something differently, or this is an issue with the incomplete data. But last year's top blitzing teams were Denver, New England, and Philadelphia. Based on the data I have here, those defenses rank 10th, 9th, and 22nd this year, respectively. Here's where the eight remaining teams all stand, based on the percentage of pass plays (scrambles or passes) where the defense sent six or more pass rushers:

• 9. Philadelphia (11%)
• 11. Baltimore (11%)
• 15. Chicago (10%)
• 22. New England (7%)
• 24. New Orleans (6%)
• 25. Seattle (6%)
• 27. San Diego (5%)
• 32. Indianapolis (3%)

The Colts were last in 2005 as well. Tony Dungy just doesn't blitz. We only counted three blitzes by the Colts in 2005, total. This year we've got 10 in our incomplete data, which means Indy's blitz rate more than tripled and the Colts are still last in the league.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Ben Maller's rumors and notes page is a really useful feature here at FOXSports.com because it aggregates stories from a bunch of newspaper websites you wouldn't check otherwise. But not every newspaper story is worth highlighting.

The top headline on the NFL page today is "Eagles McNabb to Vikings?" That story is featured in a link on the main FOXSports.com NFL front page as well. If the Eagles are really considering trading Donovan McNabb to Minnesota, that's a huge story. That's really great reporting by whichever reporter discovered that one.

Except it isn't.

The rumor comes from the "Overheard" column at the St. Paul Pioneer Press. The column is anonymous, and this is what it says:

Intriguing thought: If the Philadelphia Eagles were to beat the Saints on Saturday in New Orleans with quarterback Jeff Garcia, they would advance to the NFC championship game without starting QB Donovan McNabb, who's out with a knee injury.

Would Eagles coach Andy Reid, a pal of Vikings coach Brad Childress, who was McNabb's offensive coordinator in Philadelphia, then be willing to trade McNabb, 30, to the Vikings, who need a blockbuster playmaker to retain their season-ticket base?

Or would the Vikings try to sign the unrestricted free agent Garcia, 36, who runs the same West Coast offense as Childress, allowing Tarvaris Jackson more time to develop?

That's right. This isn't reporting. There is no indication whatsoever that the Eagles are actually considering a deal to send McNabb to the Vikings. A Pioneer Press sportswriter -- who isn't even high enough in the Pioneer Press hierarchy to get a byline -- just sort of had an "intriguing thought" in an otherwise tossed-off notes column. And suddenly it's a story, and not only does it get NFL front page play here at FOXSports.com, but I'm sure they are talking about it all over sports radio in Philadelphia and Minnesota as if Andy Reid actually told a reporter, "We're considering trading Donovan to the Vikings, and going with Jeff as the starter next year."

Are you kidding me?

Tell you what, let's start one too and see if we can get everyone talking about it as if it is an actual possibility.

Intriguing thought: With Urban Meyer winning a national championship at Florida, and proving himself a world-class offensive mind, would Wayne Huizenga consider offering Meyer the largest contract in NFL coaching history to take over the Dolphins?

There you go. Urban Meyer is officially a leading candidate for the Dolphins job. Go and spread the word.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Here's what we were talking about at Football Outsiders over the Wild Card weekend:

"This Colts first drive has been all runs and checkdowns. Apparently, the Colts' offensive plan is to keep their own defense off the field."

"Herm Edwards might be the worst in-game manager in all of sports."

"If it weren't for the two penalties on the punt return team, I'd say the Colts' defense and special teams have been entirely replaced by actual professional football players."

"My god, is Ty Law a lucky mofo."

"What's up with all these drops? Are they using the new NBA ball or something?"

"OK, this was funny and all, but does the real Chiefs-Colts game start after halftime?"

"It is 6:32 PM Eastern time. The Chiefs have their first first down."

"The long Indianapolis third-quarter drive that ended with the Joseph Addai touchdown run - 12 plays, 89 yards and seven minutes off the clock - was a masterpiece of consistent, measured playcalling. The Colts saw that gasping defense, and they went with the Long, Slow Goodbye. Just great football."

"I don't know if its the Colts defense suddenly changing into Mr Hyde. I don't know if its the absolute inability of Herm Edwards to change a plan that clearly wasn't working. But this was a stunning game."

"Why is Kelly Jennings solo on Owens? He weights about 175 pounds and isn't a good tackler."

"Why is Pete Hunter solo on Terry Glenn? Dude, it isn't like the Seahawks have choices right now."

"Let's start a pool... when will Tony Romo finally throw a pass above a guy's ankles?"

"Did Seattle just call a DRAW TO THE FULLBACK on third-and-7 in the red zone? Who thought that one up?"

"The two fourth-down conversions on Seattle's first touchdown drive were nice flashbacks to the past. Of course, there's nothing line a 93-yard punt return touchdown on the next play to kill that momentum!"

"That was one of the goofiest defensive plays I've ever seen. Catch, fumble, but the ball went out of bounds in the air before Lofa Tatupu batted it back in."

"This is going to be the longest replay challenge in the history of replay challenges."

"This is the craziest #### game I've ever seen!"

"Well, it's hard to say that the same week as that Boise State game. A couple weird plays are nothing compared to that thing."

"As a statistical analyst, it is not my job, nor is it my forte, to psychoanalyze Tony Romo and figure out what this mistake will mean for the rest of his career. However, this will not stop many, many writers and talking heads from doing just that over the next few days."

"Psychoanalyze Romo? Who would do such a thing? 'Hey, Carrie's man, what's your game, boy? Can anybody play?'"

"Chad Pennington surprises me with his arm strength when he throws downfield."

"I'm surprised that the Pats sideline is in the sun to the point that Bill Belichick is continuously shielding his eyes with his arm. (I guess he can't afford a visor to go with his hoodie.) This seems like exactly the sort of detail Belichick would have micromanaged."

"Watching Belichick and Mangini trying to outsmart each other is kinda like two Mathletes having a nerd off while everybody else in junior high is as the dance."

"Shawne Merriman is on national TV at halftime, and he can't put on a shirt? He's either wearing a wifebeater, suspenders, or a pair of overalls without a shirt, like the big guy from the original Final Fight."

"Kickoff distance is one of those things that nobody notices without looking at the numbers first, but the difference between Steve Gostkowski and Mike Nugent has been mind-bogglingly obvious this week."

"I don't agree at all with what Phil Simms just said: 'You look at this 37-16 score and it's misleading.' The Pats pretty much dominated this game. The Jets had a handful of good drives, but this was basically the Patriots' game all day. At halftime when it was 17-10, they commented that all the stats (16-7 first downs, for example) showed that the Patriots were dominating, and that was right. The score just started to reflect that by the end."

"Cris Collinsworth last night: 'Kevin Gilbride has changed the outlook on offense; they run Tiki Barber and they throw the ball long.' Yeah sure, that's not at all what the Giants offensive game plan looked like for all of 2005 and 2006 prior to last week.

"Jared Lorenzen: The unholy offspring of Michael Vick and Refrigerator Perry."

"Somebody needs to get the Giants offensive line some anti-anxiety medicine or something."

"Koy Detmer earns his paycheck with two tough holds on field goals on a rainy day. Koy for MVP."

"The only person who was playing with any sort of urgency in that game was Tiki Barber. The performance was entirely indistinguishable from any other Giants game this season, and I'd like to think that they'd focus more and play better. I'm normally not inclined to blame a performance on a coach, but this team isn't going to get any better with Coughlin at the helm. They need a change."

"Seeing Jeremy Shockey stretching for first downs with his helmet knocked off, taking off Coughlin's headphones to talk to him... he seemed to be playing with urgency. And you've got to give Plaxico Burress credit for some good receptions there. On the other hand, when your tight end is coming up to your head coach and just taking off his headphones to talk to him, and your offensive line then false starts 37 times, yeah, I don't think the discipline thing is working."

"I think the Giants were playing hard out there, but you don't just flip a switch and acquire intensity. If you have a month of the season where everyone is playing like ####, yapping in the media, and tuning out the coach, then you have dozens of practices that are just shot to hell. Guys can fly around on Sunday and hit hard and yell and scream, but football requires precision and controlled aggression. The Giants have been an imprecise team all year."

Read more in Audibles at the Line on FootballOutsiders.com.
 

post by Mike Tanier

So, we've got most of Weeks 1-14 now compiled in our game charting project, and four very important games to analyze, so I thought perhaps I would go through and see what the charting data says about the wild card weekend games. Standard caveats, of course: this data is unofficial, compiled by volunteers, we're missing some games, and it is hard to always see who was in coverage when using TV tape.

Kansas City at Indianapolis

Last year our stats said that Jason David made a successful play on a higher percentage of passes than Nick Harper, but when he gave up a completion, it went for more yards. This year, their stats are virtually identical in every way. The only difference is that the average pass David faces is 13 yards in the air, the average pass for Harper just 10 yards in the air.

("Made a successful play" does not mean just an incomplete or interception; it also applies to a complete pass that does not gain 45% of yards on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third down.)

Indy had 32 passes marked "Hole in Zone," more than any other team. That's 10.3% of the total charted passes marked with a defender of some sort. The second-highest team was Jacksonville (7.2%).

KC had only 6 passes marked Hole in Zone, which makes sense, since Gunther Cunningham loves man coverage. Unfortunately, he's got just one guy who can pull it off. For two years now, the game charting has said that Ty Law is now a subpar cornerback. We've got 51 passes targeted at Ty Law, averaging 9.5 yards per pass. We've got just 32 targeted at Patrick Surtain, averaging 6.2 yards per pass -- even though the average pass at Surtain actually traveled slightly longer in the air (10.5 yards to 10.1 yards). We've got almost as many passes targeted at Lenny Walls, the nickel back, as we do targeted at Surtain.

Dallas at Seattle

We covered this one a couple weeks ago. The numbers on the Dallas cornerbacks are fairly similar and all worse than last year, but there are many more passes thrown at Anthony Henry than thrown at Terrance Newman. And our charting doesn't include most of the recent period where the Dallas pass defense imploded.

Seattle numbers are pretty worthless given all the injuries. Jordan Babineaux's numbers sucked as a cornerback last year. There's going to be a LOT of passing in this game.

New York Jets at New England

Asante Samuel is your lord and master. He allowed just 4.7 yards per pass, which is the lowest of any cornerback in the league with at least 30 charted passes except for R.W. McQuarters. Except the average pass against McQuarters was FIVE YARDS SHORTER than the average pass against Samuel, and we charted nearly twice as many passes against Samuel because McQuarters is a nickel back. Samuel also had a high 61% stop rate (stopping plays short of success). Ellis Hobbs and Chad Scott had similar, average stats, which is strange because it seemed like Scott was burned constantly. Hobbs was one of the best guys in the league in these stats last year but struggled with injuries in 2006.

Usually the nickel back faces shorter passes, because he's facing guys trying to convert third downs, but David Barrett of New York faced an average pass that went 15 yards in the air, compared to just 10 for starters Andre Dyson and Justin Miller. Miller's stats were pathetic as a rookie but much better this year. Dyson and Miller allowed the same average yards per pass (7.7) but Dyson was successful against just 40% of passes, Miller against 55% of passes. Barrett had excellent numbers, but I'm guessing that's a sample size fluke caused by a few overthrown bombs.

New York Giants at Philadelphia

If the charting numbers are to be believed, the safeties in New York are horrible. Kevin Dockery's 12 yards per pass was #1 among all players with at least 30 charted passes. Will Demps' 9.8 is eighth. Both had stop rate of 36%, the only defensive back worse than that was Travis Fisher of St. Louis.

As for the cornerbacks, as mentioned above, R.W. McQuarters comes out with great stats, which is really weird and completely goes against the subjective view of my eyes any time I watched the Giants. Corey Webster was thrown at more often than Sam Madison, giving up slightly more yards per pass with a slightly lower stop rate.

Last year in Philly, Sheldon Brown and Roderick Hood both ranked among the best in the league while an injured Lito Sheppard was near the bottom. This year, Hood was the injured corner with the subpar stats, and Sheppard's stats were near the top of the league. Injuries are bad, huh? Anyway, Sheppard had a stop rate of 62%, one of the best in the league, and allowed just 5.4 yards per pass, and that doesn't even take into account all his timely interceptions. Brown had a stop rate of 57% and allowed 8.6 yards per charted pass (in his defense, he faced longer passes on average). Hood's stats don't mean much since we're missing the recent weeks where he was actually healthy.

Post by Aaron Schatz

So, I was playing around with the game charting data, and I decided to check out some of the stats that we included in Pro Football Prospectus 2006, to see if they stayed consistent this year. One of the biggest things in the charting is yards after catch -- STATS Inc. keeps that, but they really don't do a good job of making it public, so we wanted our own numbers. We did those not just for wide receivers, but also for tight ends, running backs -- and quarterbacks, to see who got the most extra yardage from hitting receivers in stride, throwing screens, or having Santana Moss on their team.

Comparing the two seasons was pretty interesting. (Actually, we're talking about the 2005 season compared to an incomplete sample from the first 13 weeks of the 2006 season, but I digress.) It's surprising how few quarterbacks played a significant amount of time on the same team, in the same system, in both 2005 and 2006. 30 quarterbacks had at least 80 charted passes in 2005 and at least 50 charted (so far) passes in 2006. But seven are now on different teams, and five (counting Mark Brunell) are in new offensive systems this year. Both of those could be big reasons why YAC would change.

At first glance, it doesn't look like quarterback YAC has a lot of correlation from one year to the next, but actually, the correlation coefficient is .33 for all the quarterbacks, and .41 for the quarterbacks who are on the same team as last year (no matter if the coaching staff changed or not). For the NFL, that's reasonably consistent.

Last year's top quarterback in YAC was Jake Delhomme, and he's fallen to the middle of the pack this year. (No duh, since Steve Smith hasn't been as explosive or used as much as last year.) But last year's number two, Donovan McNabb, is this year's top quarterback in YAC, by far: 8.0 yards per completion. Delhomme was at 6.1 last year, and nobody is above 6.7 in our incomplete sample of 2006.

Here's the remarkable stat for people who think Jeff Garcia is actually better than Donovan McNabb in that Philadelphia offense: Garcia is last this year with just 3.8 yards after catch. In the same offense, with the same receivers. It sure doesn't look like they're calling the plays differently -- the Eagles still throw bombs and hit Westbrook on screens -- but something is clearly different.

The rest of this year's top five: Daunte Culpepper, David Garrard, Mark Brunell, and Brett Favre. Brunell was third last year, but Garrard was near the bottom of the YAC rankings last year. That's an overall change in the Jacksonville offense, I think -- Garrard went from 43rd to third, and Leftwich went from 33rd to eighth.

Tom Brady was one of last year's leaders, but he's middle of the pack this year with the New England "seriously, who are these guys" wide receiver plan.

Another same team, different offensive philosophy: Culpepper was second this year and Joey Harrington is third from the bottom. The bottom five: Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Joey Harrington, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair. All of those guys were middle of the pack in 2005 except Hasselbeck -- with a lot of specific routes to get first downs, and running backs who suck at receiving, Hasselbeck is just not going to get YAC.

There are a lot of other guys who are near the bottom in YAC both years, though -- they just aren't bottom FIVE this season. That includes Charlie Frye, Carson Palmer (surprising, I think), and Michael Vick.

Post by Aaron Schatz

I first heard it after the Eagles beat the Redskins in Week 14. At that point, it was said sheepishly, almost apologetically. After the Giants victory, I heard it asked straight-facedly on a Philadelphia morning sports-talk show:

"Let's say the Eagles win the Super Bowl with Jeff Garcia. Do they go back to Donovan McNabb next year?"

As a teacher, I am supposed to live by the mantra that there are no stupid questions. But this question is stupid with a capital "stew." And it is being discussed seriously by people who should really know better.

To understand the abject idiocy of the question, we must first examine the opening phrase. "Say the Eagles win the Super Bowl." Yeah, let's just say. Say the most exciting, wonderful, unlikely event in the history of Philadelphia sports happens in six weeks (please don't e-mail me about Villanova-Georgetown). Say the Eagles make the playoffs, win a game, win another game, beat the Bears in Soldier Field, then beat the Chargers or Ravens or Colts or Patriots or whoever. Say that the trumpet doesn't sound at that moment and the Seventh Seal isn't broken. Say that Eagles fans don't burn South Street to the ground in celebration. Say all of that happens. Who's the quarterback next year? Who cares? If the Eagles win their first Super Bowl ever, the Barefoot Contessa can quarterback the team for all anyone cares. They'll have won the Super Bowl!

What an assumption to make – after three wins, the Super Bowl is a prepositional phrase leading into a sentence about a quarterback controversy brewing in the mind of a deluded armchair GM. The only thing more preposterous about the concept itself is the idea that someone would broadcast it. "Hey, Tony, Mike from Mount Ephraim here. Say a race of giant space insects comes to earth and enslaves the population in their subterranean lairs making nutrient jelly for their queen's eggs. If that happens, do we start Garcia or McNabb next year?" I can hear these same callers flooding the airwaves 45 minutes after the Eagles beat the Ravens 56-0 in their imaginary Super Bowl, with Garcia throwing eight touchdown passes. "So, Jody, who do we start next year? And by the way, what was that bum Andy Reid thinking when he punted on 4th-and-inches from midfield when we only had a 49-point lead? He's a lousy gameday coach who can't make adjustments."

The issue here isn't the Eagles' Super Bowl worthiness, though I feel despite their DVOA that they are a notch below the top contenders (here's a thought: what would LaDainian Tomlinson do to their defense?) The issue is that some fans are willing to leap to absolutely insane conclusions on the basis of three games. Garcia led the Eagles to victories over a bad Redskins team and Panthers and Giants teams that fit squarely into the Eagles' sewing circle of talented-but-highly-flawed NFC contenders. The Eagles needed defensive heroics to win all three games. Garcia's performances in all three contests were surprising and effective but not great. But suddenly, Garcia can do things that McNabb couldn't. He's better at reading defenses (no he isn't). He's easier to block for (no he isn't, because most linemen hate quarterbacks who jitter around in the pocket). He's more creative when plays break down (please be serious). He's better on quick-hitting timing passes (okay, you've got one, but I'll take the 45-yard bombs to the five-yard hitches any day). He finds a way to win.

Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner. Garcia is a winner, because he has won three games. McNabb never executed a three-game winning streak. Oh wait, he has, but that was then and this is now, baby. The Eagles respond to Garcia (actually, their luck for the season started to even out). He has come through in the stretch (he hasn't been victimized by dropped passes and 62-yard field goals). He's a "leader" in some magical way that McNabb isn't. He's taking the Eagles to the Super Bowl, and it's time to ask now if Reid has the guts to trade McNabb and give Garcia the chance to repeat, or if he's going to go with "his man".

Maybe I am overreacting to one or two talk radio callers and some water cooler speculation. Or maybe not. Midday sportstalker Jody McDonald (one of our more level-headed thinkers in the Philly media) read a long diatribe on the air that I believe was taken from some Eagles blog. The screed ripped McNabb for all of his shortcomings and explained why Garcia makes the Eagles a much better team. For good measure, the screed railed against Reid for being a lousy coach (who only won because he inherited great players from Ray Rhodes) who has finally seen the light in the last three weeks. I think Jody Mac was only throwing it out there for conversation, not endorsing the essay, and I don't know or care who wrote it (when a street corner lunatic tells me that fluoride in my water is giving my kids ADHD, I don't write his name down so I can cite him in future research, either).

I couldn't write a better parody of incoherent football reasoning if I tried. Anyone with eyes can see that McNabb is a better quarterback than Garcia – not a better athlete, not a better option for the future because he's younger, but a better quarterback. Anyone who paid even a little attention to the Eagles over the last three weeks knows that the team could easily be 6-8 right now without changing a thing that Garcia did: just have Keyshawn Johnson outjump Lito Sheppard and get the Redskins to convert in the red zone in the fourth quarter, and the same geniuses who have anointed Garcia a winner would be clamoring for A.J. Feeley. I'm thrilled (and somewhat shocked) at how well Garcia has played, but I have seen his faults and failings in the past three weeks, the interceptions that bounced off defenders' hands, the throws behind receivers, the wobblers, the "buy time" dances in the pocket that will turn into sacks once teams adjust to him. He's no McNabb. Not even close. And he doesn't have any magical "winner" properties.

So let me phrase a more rational, realistic question. Say the Eagles make the playoffs and lose in one of the first two rounds. What do they do about Garcia, and what does that say about the team? If that happens, I say we re-sign Garcia to back up McNabb. If McNabb is slow to rehab his knee, then we give Garcia a start or two. And the moment McNabb can plant and cut and do all of those things, we give Garcia a baseball cap and put the real quarterback in.

And if Garcia gets us a Super Bowl, we do the same darn thing.

But if/when the Eagles fall short, we should realize that this season was an absolute vindication of Reid's system. Look at the offensive line. Look at the secondary. Look at the front seven on defense … well, don't, but at least the team's problems are localized. If the Eagles finish 10-6 with Garcia, they would easily have gone 11-5 with McNabb: either give them the Titans game back or take away the miracle field goal. That is sustained success, with 2005 written off as an injury-and-distraction ridden blip. You don't throw that away for a three-game hot streak. For me, the thought that this team is on the right track is a lot more satisfying than a pre-fab quarterback controversy.

post by Mike Tanier

Nathan Freedman: I'm an Eagles fan, and I think McNabb could have been a future-Hall of Fame quarterback had he played on a team that had good receivers. I am interested in what the 3-year similarity scores are for McNabb, and if any QB is actually really comparable. It seems to me like a pretty unique 3-year stretch, by a unique player of the DVOA Era.

Aaron Schatz: There's no way to use similarity scores to tell how he would have done with better receivers; the quality of the receivers is built into the stats. And the similarity scores don't use DVOA, just regular stats -- they go back to 1978, not just the DVOA era (1997).

That being said, similarity scores are fun, so let's see what we can find.

Two injured years means that McNabb doesn't come out as very similar to anybody.  The highest three-year similarity is 714, Mark Brunell 1997-1999.  Then Jim Kelly 88-90, Joe Montana 84-86, and Bill Kenney (who?) 1983-1985.

The most similar single seasons to McNabb this year: Steve Grogan in 1983, Jim McMahon in 1987 (pro-rated for strike), Wade Wilson in 1988, and some guy named Donovan McNabb in 2005.  Grogan is also the most similar if you look over two years only. It's funny, I don't think anybody would think of Steve Grogan and Donovan McNabb as similar players, but they are in many ways: scrambling quarterbacks who fought injuries for years, and the fans never felt that they quite reached their potential. Grogan had a lower completion percentage, but part of that is the era in which he played. (Part of this is that people have a hard time seeing players of different races as similar, even if they are similar, like Warren Moon and Trent Green.)

Then I took this year's numbers and pro-rated them to 16 games to see what would come up. I left last year's injury in, so you'll get players who had a middle year with an injury.

The most similar in that case is Joe Montana 1985-1987, but again, not that similar: 741. Montana's 85-86 is pretty similar to McNabb's 2004-2005, but Montana's 1987 is very different from McNabb this year: higher completion percentage but fewer yards per attempt, more passing touchdowns but less running.  Montana's 1987 numbers are pro-rated for the strike.

It's funny -- people keep asking me about quarterbacks this year, and I keep coming up with "that quarterback is really unique."  I'm guessing this is a sign I need to work on refining the quarterback similarities in the off-season.

Post by Aaron Schatz 

Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"The Jets-Texans announcers must be the CBS "R"-Team. I am pretty sure the next broadcast team they'd send out would be Jeff Probst and the clock from 60 Minutes".

"Michael Vick may not be able to pass, and may be a 'coach killer,' but boy does he have moves."

"Baltimore's second touchdown drive was something Bronko Nagurski would have enjoyed: 8 plays, 47 yards, and six of the plays were essentially runs up the middle."

"Drew Brees just threw a 50-yard, half-ending Hail Mary TD. With triple coverage, the Falcons made a lame attempt at batting down the ball. The primary coverage was DeAngelo Hall, who was in such poor body position he wasn’t able to do any defending. The Falcons took a timeout right before the play began and Daryl Johnson noted, 'they don't get to take those into the locker room with them, so you better use them if you are unsure of what to do. The worst thing would be to get burned on the last play here, so it's best to take the timeout and be sure.' Guess they weren't that sure."

"Boredom is Texans-Jets. Long drive, field goal. Long drive, punt. Rinse, repeat."

"Ben Roethlisberger is getting heat on just about every play, and the distressing thing is how much of the pressure is unblocked. The only time this season I've seen a quarterback under siege to this extent was when Andrew Walter got sacked nine times by the Seahawks a few Monday nights ago. Yes, I just compared the offense of the defending Super Bowl champs to the Oakland Raiders."

"There's a really good chance that neither Edgerrin James nor Shaun Alexander will run for 100 yards in a single game this season. Between them, they did so 20 times in 2005."

"Is anyone really surprised by Edge, though? The guy never saw an eight-man front in his life, and then he moved to a team with an absolutely horrid offensive line. I'd have to say he is who I thought he was."

"It's time for the general populace to realize how good this Oakland defense really is. In the first half, the Chargers - who are currently ranked second in the NFL in offensive DVOA - have gained 55 total yards, have three first downs, are 0 for 4 in third-down conversions, and have had the ball for a whopping eight minutes and twenty-three seconds."

"Yeah, the Raiders defense is great, but their offense handed the Chargers the ball on the 12-yard line and couldn't execute a drive longer than four plays in the second half. The defense can't hold on forever."

"If any of the subjective power ranking writers drop the Bears because they lost, they are complete and total idiots. They just lost by four points on the road against one of the top five or six teams in the league. This does nothing -- nothing -- to prove that the Bears can't win against the best team the AFC has to offer on a neutral field in February.

"Guess who's on my fantasy bench this week? Joseph Addai. Time to trade someone for a receiver."

"The Eagles can blame a lot on the McNabb injury and bad luck, but there is no excuse for the complete and total disintegration of their run defense over the past few weeks. I know they are in nickel a lot tonight, but last time I checked you weren't supposed to stop tackling people just because you had one less linebacker on the field."

Check out more in this week's FO Audibles at the Line.

post by Mike Tanier

Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"Kansas City's first drive of the game: 10 rushes for 73 yards, one pass for three yards, finished off with a rushing touchdown. Welcome back, Trent Green!"

"Favre out. McNabb out. Bad day for a lot of fantasy teams."

"I know that the Patriots have injuries in the secondary, but really, enough with the Troy Brown thing. That was supposed to be for emergencies only. He has two penalties so far as a defensive back this year, and at one point he was in man coverage on Donald Driver."

"There is a rumor circulating in Philly that the boys were out a little late last night celebrating Donovan McNabb's birthday. They played like they were hung over today."

"Peyton Manning is getting no protection at all."

"Does Mike Nolan fidget this much when he's not wearing a suit?"

"The Seahawks defense just seems to have skipped tackling school this week."

"Now that the Lions are getting their #### kicked by Arizona, can anyone think of any plausible reason that Matt Millen should still have a job?"

"There's no way the Cowboys do not cut Vanderjagt this week."

"Would you like to know who's playing receiver for the Lions now? Josh McCown. Seriously. Josh McCown. Matt Millen spent a Top 10 pick on Mike Williams, and now he can't beat out a quarterback for playing time at wide receiver. And not a particularly fast quarterback, either."

"Now we can go back to talking about the Colts with sanity. We can talk about what they really are: a great offense, a bad defense, atrocious special teams, one of the top teams in the NFL but not a Super Bowl favorite."

"Conversation overheard at NBC: 'Can we un-flex Philly at Indianapolis and go back to Chicago at New England instead?'"

"It turns out that if you have LaDainian Tomlinson on your team, there may be no such thing as a hole too deep. This also goes for my fantasy team, which had a terrible week until about ten minutes ago."

"Igor Olshansky is a buffoon, but even more so, Tom Nalen is a ####."

For more, check out Audibles at the Line at Football Outsiders.

post by Mike Tanier

The DVOA rankings are out, and frankly, they look a little funky to the naked eye. Eagles fourth? Colts seventh? Needless to say, our Inbox is humming with people who think that the Football Outsiders have been hitting the sauce and pouring a little onto our computers for good measure.

I know we can never convince the people who write "Youze suck. Yur ratings are stoopid." that our system is really the best one available for evaluating NFL teams. But I can clarify the DVOA system, in a non-technical way, just a little for fence-sitters who may be wondering whether or not we've lost our minds. To do this, let's look at a hypothetical game between Home and Away.

Say Home gets the ball at the start of the game and drives 79-yards to the one-yard line. It's a textbook drive without a wasted play: runs mixed with passes, a few 10-20 yard gains, several 5-7 yard gains. Then, at the one-yard line, the running back fumbles. The Away Team scoops up the ball and runs 99 yards for a touchdown.

Next drive, Home gets the ball on the 20 again, and again drives 79 yards with little resistance. Then at the one-yard line, the left tackle gets called for unnecessary roughness for pushing and shoving after the whistle. Angry, the left tackle stomps the line judge on the toe and calls him a puppy strangler. Home gets backed up to the 31-yard line, and a 48-yard field goal attempt is blocked. Away picks up the ball and races for another touchdown and a 14-0 lead. Let's say that each team scores 10 more points, and Away wins 24-10.

A win is a win is a win, and Away clearly won. Most power rankings would rank Away ahead of Home – maybe not that week, when the two strange touchdowns are fresh in everyone's mind, but a month later, when all that's left is the 24-10 score.

But DVOA says this: Home played better. They may not have won, they may not have "deserved" to win (whatever that means), but they clearly played better. And if Home faced Away again, they would probably win, possibly by a score close to the 24-10 score they might have attained if it weren't for a few fluke plays.

But they fumbled. Bad teams fumble.

But the penalty and the blocked kick cannot be ignored.

But Home couldn't come back when they had to.

14-point comebacks aren't easy. Holding on to a 14-point lead is much easier. Maybe Home quickly cut the lead to 14-10 before halftime, then gave up one long touchdown drive in the second half and a late field goal. The defense may deserve some blame for giving up the touchdown, but it was the only long drive they allowed. The offense may deserve blame for getting shut out in the second half, but they were fighting an uphill battle. Great teams don't execute big comebacks; they roll up leads and sit on them. That's what Home showed they could do in this game. They just didn't quite do it.Bad teams do commit more of some types of penalties, like false starts, than good teams. But some penalties, like roughness fouls, are truly random. And while a blocked kick may be a sign of a lousy kicker, blocked kicks happen less than once per season per team. And again, two penalties and a blocked kick don't usually result in a 10-to-14-point scoreboard swing. Yes, and bad teams fumble more than good teams. But most fumbles don't result in a 14-point swing like this one did. When a team fumbles on the one-yard line, all kinds of things can happen. The quarterback could fall on the ball, and Home could score on the next play. Or a defender could fall on the ball, go three-and-out, and give Home the ball again in great field position. What actually happened was the worst possible scenario for Home, and it's not the type of play that repeats itself. That's because while fumbles aren't random, fumble recoveries are, and long returns absolutely, positively are.

After this Home loss, the fans are ticked off, and the sports radio guys fire them up even more. The coach is stupid. The players can't execute. They've lost their "swagger." The Away quarterback, who was spotted a 14-0 lead and probably handed off 45 times, is now a "winner" and a "game manager." That's human nature. We retrofit our opinions to match the results, and we rationalize away luck or random factors. No sportswriter wants to say that a team got "lucky," because it sounds like whining. Of course, sometimes teams do get lucky, and luck is a much bigger determinant in wins and losses than "swagger." But as the weeks go on, memories of this Home loss fade, and even the Football Outsiders forget just how strange this particular game was.

But DVOA doesn't forget. The system examined every play and ranked it. All of those 10-15 yard gains by Home on the first two drives are still in the system. The fumble is, too, but it's on the books as a big mistake, not a huge, colossal, everything-else-is-meaningless mistake. Same with the botched field goal. DVOA knows that the ability to sustain drives carries over from week to week: we've been checking for years, so we know. DVOA knows that Home's defensive ability to hold Away to 10 points is an ability to carry over from week to week. Away's "ability" to run fumbles back 99 yards or block field goals or force opponents into penalties aren't really abilities. They are flukes that appear one week and then disappear for four months.

So when DVOA ranks the Eagles high or the Colts low, the system is just remembering all sorts of things that we've forgotten. We all remember that the Eagles lost two crazy games, but DVOA can tell you just how crazy they were. We all know that the Colts struggled against the Giants, Jets, and Titans, but DVOA has all of those struggles itemized. The system remembers that the Giants outplayed the Colts and the Eagles outplayed the Giants. It knows that the Colts needed a late touchdown to beat the Jets and the Eagles needed a late touchdown to take the lead against the Bucs, but the Bucs' once-in-a-lifetime desperation play worked while the Jets' desperation lateral play didn't. DVOA isn't some angry fan cherry-picking plays to prove his point or a columnist on a deadline straining to remember the particulars of a 14-13 game he didn't watch. DVOA is a blind system that produces sometimes-surprising results immune to the biases that affect me, you, Aaron, and every other football fan in the world.

That's what DVOA does, and that's one of the reasons why we use it, and why we stand behind rankings that sometimes puzzle even us. If you aren't convinced, we ask you to keep checking back at the site. Dig deeper into the DVOA breakdowns and some of our other stats. E-mail us a specific question, and we'll do our best to answer it. You'll discover that DVOA, DPAR, and our other tools consistently spot trends, strengths, and weaknesses that can't be seen by the naked eye.

If not completely satisfied, drop us an e-mail and say we suck. Our delete button works just fine.

Post by Mike Tanier