The Patriots have traded for Randy Moss, giving Tom Brady by
far the best receiver he has ever had and thereby guaranteeing the Patriots
another Super Bowl. That will be the
conventional wisdom. The only red flag
anyone will bring up is Moss' character concerns and whether he can fit into
the team-first approach in New England. Maybe that is an issue (it certainly was not
for Corey Dillon), but a bigger problem could be that Moss is simply no longer
a star player.
Similarity scores are a tool used to compare people to other
players who posted similar numbers over a given time period. A quick glance at
Moss’ three-year similarity profile is very alarming. (Only yards are listed,
but similarity scores also compare catches, touchdowns, and average yards per
catch.)
The names on the left are acceptable if not overly
impressive. More than half had over 7,000 receiving yards in their careers. The
numbers on the right represent the next season after the similar three-year
stretch. Only one receiver had more than 700 yards. Some of these guys had
another good season or two in them, but nobody hit 1,000 yards again.
Moss is a different animal because his peak was higher even
than that of Rison or Pearson. The other assumption is that Oakland was too dysfunctional and/or Moss
just did not care when he was there. Of course, both Doug Gabriel and Ronald
Curry had success there the past two seasons. Gabriel, of course, came to the
Patriots a season ago and struggled to get consistent playing time. Curry was actually the leading receiver on
the Raiders last season.
Tom Brady is a better quarterback than Aaron Brooks, Andrew
Walter, and Kerry Collins put together, but this is not Randy Moss circa
2002. Moss averaged a whopping 3.3
catches per game last season, and the once-dominant red zone threat scored just
three touchdowns. He caught only 43% of
the passes intended for him.
The truth is that Moss is 30 years old, and he always relied
heavily on his speed to get open. He is not the physical receiver that Terrell
Owens is or the master route-runner that Marvin Harrison is. As such, he is not
likely to age gracefully. Moss always
played better on the fast track of the Metrodome, so it is good news that the
Patriots have gotten rid of their grass field.
Is Randy Moss an upgrade for the Patriots? Certainly, considering Jabar Gaffney and
Reche Caldwell were their second and third receivers. But, I think it is a little wishful thinking
to see Moss as a better player than Deion Branch at this point in his
career. Branch also would have been a better fit
opposite Donte Stallworth than the supposed deep threat in Moss. Only once in the last six years has Moss
caught 60% of the passes intended for him, a total Branch hit three times in
four years with the Patriots.
Still, the Patriots have to be commended for playing this
one right. They unloaded Branch at the
height of his value for a first-round pick and now steal Moss away for a
fourth-round pick. His reputation alone
should help open up the running game and get Stallworth one-on-one
opportunities. Moss could easily get his
900 yards, 65 catches, and eight touchdowns, and the Patriots will be a better
team. Just don't expect Moss to team
with Brady to form some sort of Montana-Rice unstoppable duo.
Recently, teams in the NFL have become associated with an interest in the players of certain schools: New England went after players from LSU and, more recently, have decided that receivers from Florida are the bees' knees. Atlanta's taken a liking to Virginia Tech alums, while Detroit has opted for drafting players from Texas.
There are different reasons for why this occurs. Sometimes, a coach was previously the coach at a college, and brings his old players in -- Steve Spurrier famously attempted this with Washington in 2003 and 2004 -- with the theory being that they've already been in their particular system for years. Other times, a coach has ties to the coach or the system used at a particular college, and brings in players who have already spent years in the system; this was the reason why Bill Belichick brought in players from Louisiana State, who had played in a similar system under Nick Saban, Belichick's former assistant in Cleveland.
It leads to an interesting question: Can teams gain an advantage on the opposition by focusing on drafting players from a particular school, conference, or region? The Atlanta Braves employ a similar strategy, focusing specifically on prep players from the suburbs of Atlanta in the draft. This strategy has led to the acquisition of players like Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur. Is the same true in the NFL? Let's take a look at four teams who focused on one particular college over a period of time and how those players from those teams turned out.
Los Angeles Rams, Ten players from UCLA, 1985-1993: This focus on UCLA is doubly ironic when you consider that the Rams' coach for most of this run was John Robinson, whose tenure with the Rams was preceded by seven years at, of all places, USC! St. Louis' picks from UCLA enjoyed better-than-average success: Tenth-rounder Duval Love spent twelve years in the NFL, fifth-rounder James Washington spent seven years in the league and was part of the Cowboys dynasty in the early-nineties, Flipper Anderson was the player that Alvin Harper was supposed to be, Darryl Henley was a competent linebacker, and Roman Phifer an excellent one. The only real disappointment amongst these picks was the one first-rounder the Rams used on a UCLA graduate, running back Gaston Green. Green left the Rams after three seasons, rushed for 1000 yards with the Broncos, and was out of football the year after.
Chicago Bears, Nine Players from Oklahoma, 1987-1992: Most of these picks were late-round flyers -- only one of them was higher than a fifth-rounder, second-rounder Dante Jones. Jones played several season for Chicago, but none of the other selections had any real career with the Bears.
Dallas Cowboys, Nine Players from Florida, 1983-1991: Another ironic one this; Jimmy Johnson, who made half of these picks, made his name at rival Miami. Tom Landry's side of these selections enjoyed varying levels of success: fourth-round TE Chris Faulkner didn't make the team, while third-round guard Jeff Zimmerman struggled with injuries and never panned out. Fellow third-round guard Crawford Ker was better, starting for several years. In Johnson's first draft, third-rounder Rhondy Weston wasn't good enough to make a 1-15 team. 1990, though, saw what may have been Johnson's best selection of his entire campaign in Dallas, selecting Emmitt Smith seventeenth overall. Godfrey Myles, chosen the year after in the third round, stuck around as a borderline starting linebacker and got out when the good times started to fade, finishing up in 1996.
Oakland Raiders, Nine Players from USC, 1971-1977: Oakland was averaging 10.7 wins off of a 14 game schedule over this time frame, so they were clearly doing something right. One of those things was drafting players from USC, almost all of whom played an important role on the team during this period. Fourth-rounder Clarence Davis stuck as a high-percentage scatback, the kind of player FO would have loved if it existed in the seventies. Skip Thorpe, taken in the seventh round, became a starting corner, while second rounder Charles Phillips went in as a big-play safety. Fellow second-rounder John Vella started at tackle and guard for most of the era, and even eighth-rounder Mike Rae stuck as a backup quarterback. The pick of the group, though, was when the twelfth round of the '77 draft rolled around and the Raiders grabbed linebacker Rod Martin. Martin would become a legend of the silver and black.
Sean Payton will win Coach of the Year this season. There are other great candidates (Marty Schottenheimer, Andy Reid, Eric Mangini), but the award usually goes to the coach who brought his team from nowhere into contention. That description fits Payton to a "T."
But who was the NFL's worst coach this year? There's no clear winner (loser?) but a long list of candidates.
Art Shell would be an obvious choice. Shell made many mistakes this season: hiring his overmatched buddy as offensive coordinator, bungling the Jerry Porter situation, letting Randy Moss get away with murder, and so on. His most grievous error: the Raiders are no further along now than they were last year. It's one thing for a first-year coach to have a bad year, but quire another for him to show no signs of progress.
There are mitigating factors in Shell's case. First, there's the fact that a first-year head coach can only do so much. Then there's the Raiders front office, which is still lost in the 1970s. Finally, there was the brutal division schedule that offered the Raiders few cheesy wins. If they played in the NFC West, the Raiders might be 5-11: bad, but not punchline bad.
The Cardinals are in position to go 5-11 in the NFC West, and their head coach has had three years to install his system. Denny Green has done an awful job in Arizona, and he has flopped at a time when the team's ownership is spending money like crazy to shed the team's loser image. Green hasn't been able to field a competitive offensive line despite free agent acquisitions, draft picks, and staff changes. Look at what Payton has done with the Saints line this season and it's clear that there's no trick to fielding a competent line. Green just hasn't gotten it done. And he didn't earn any style points with that post-game tirade after the loss to the Bears.
The Cardinals were a fashionable playoff pick this year. So were the Redskins; some experts had them heading to the Super Bowl, and we're not just talking about Joe Theismann. It may be sacrilegious to suggest that Joe Gibbs was the worst coach in the league this season, but the Redskins were pretty terrible for a team with a high payroll and a coaching staff filled with living legends. Gibbs is supposed to be a master of finding and developing young players, but the Redskins haven't produced any surprise stars in the last three seasons (Chris Cooley and Ladell Betts were high draft choices, not surprises), and major talents like Sean Taylor and Carlos Rogers don't seem to be developing. Gibbs handled his quarterback situation poorly and seemed unwilling to step in and make changes when it was clear that the Redskins offense was in trouble at the start of camp. It was a lousy coaching effort, and only some of the blame can be pinned on owner Dan Snyder for assembling another all-name, no-game roster.
Gibbs' woes in Washington were overshadowed by Tom Coughlin's bellicose blundering in New York. Beware of sel####escribed disciplinarians. Real disciplinarians use tight organization and clear communication to enforce rules, but would-be drill sergeants like Coughlin just congratulate themselves for shouting the loudest. Most of the Giants tuned Coughlin out last year, but youngsters like Mathias Kiwanuka didn't know better and found themselves on the receiving end of Coughlin's public tantrums. Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey were right when they said that the Giants were outcoached in 2005 and 2006, but the team that executes cleanly and plays hard can overcome an inferior gameplan. Coughlin's Giants couldn't execute, and by the end of this season, none of them even wanted to execute, unless they had the chance to execute Coughlin.
Was Coughlin the worst coach of 2006? I think we can go lower. In my opinion, the worst coaches have two fatal flaws: 1) They are incapable of fixing their team's problems even after a few seasons and a commitment of resources, and 2) They are divisive and create a toxic atmosphere. Coughlin is divisive, but the Giants really haven't had one recurring problem during his tenure. Gibbs hasn't gotten the Redskins to turn the corner, but he creates a professional work environment for his players. Shell couldn't fix the offensive line and didn't exactly build unity by creating a double standard for Moss and Porter, but he's only been at the job one year.
Then there's Jim Mora. He keeps waiting for Michael Vick to mature. He keeps waiting for the run defense to fix itself. Mora and the Falcons invest money in defenders like Ed Hartwell and Lawyer Milloy and high draft picks on wide receivers, but the results are the same year-in and year-out. The Falcons are never terrible, and I might be easier on Mora if he had a reputation as a class act. But Mora is, by most accounts, a jerk. He's a poor communicator to his players who seems incapable of developing them past the "raw talent" level. And his recent "I wanna coach at the college level" wisecracks, spoken while the Falcons were still very alive in the playoff race, demonstrated just how clueless he is.
It's tough to pass on Coughlin and Green, but I believe that Mora was the worst coach in the NFL this year. His dad might have called Vick a coach killer, but Mora has done a pretty good job of hanging himself without Vick's help in the last two seasons. When firing season starts next week, Mora will probably be among the first to get the boot.
Last Sunday, the Oakland Raiders' defense held the Houston Texans to negative net passing yards. David Carr completed 7 of 14 passes for 32 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. He was sacked five times for -37 yards behind the typically porous Houston offensive line (currently ranked 27th in the NFL in Adjusted Sack Rate), which left him five yards in the hole. But the Texans won the game, 23-14, because the Raiders' offense couldn't get anything going against the second-worst defense in football.
Oakland's defense is doing a great job this season – Houston scored on a fumble return, a 3-yard run and three field goals - and is going unnoticed, as the Raiders continue to lose in ways that are embarrassing, both on and off the field. That Raider defense currently ranks sixth overall in Defensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, explained here), and this is an especially impressive accomplishment, because Oakland's offense is an absolute disaster.
The Raiders rank last in the league in Offensive DVOA, and they do so by a rather crushing margin – their -32.0% is close enough to the 2005 49ers' historically inept -39.8%, and far enough away from the 31st-ranked offense in 2006, Tampa Bay's -21.9%, to be truly disquieting. Oakland's 6th-to-32nd swing from defense to offense speaks to a massive DVOA imbalance, and prompted me to go back from 1997 (that's the earliest season for which Football Outsiders has charted DVOA at this time) and discover the biggest swings from one unit to the other. What I discovered was that Oakland's current disparity, embarrassing as it may be, doesn’t hold the top spot from 1997 through 2006. While the Raiders have swung that wide twice since 1998, several teams have walked through seasons with limps even more pronounced.
Disparity of 26 places in rank 1998 Oakland Raiders (Overall DVOA - 25th) Offensive DVOA Rank: 28th (-24.9%) Defensive DVOA Rank: 2nd (-18.1%) Record: 8-8 1998 San Diego Chargers (Overall DVOA - 23rd) Offensive DVOA Rank: 29th (-26.7%) Defensive DVOA Rank: 3rd (-17.4%) Record: 5-11 2006 Oakland Raiders (Overall DVOA - 28th) Offensive DVOA Rank: 32nd (-32.0%) Defensive DVOA Rank: 6th (-11.2%) Record as of 12/8/06: 2-10
What I found most interesting about these numbers is the fact that you can have a massively unbalanced team and still make the playoffs, as the 2005 Bears and 2000 Vikings both did. The 2000 Vikings made it all the way to the NFC Championship game. Of course, the squad on the high side had best be stellar, as Chicago's defense and Minnesota's offense were in both cases. Most of the teams listed, as one might expect, cancel out to a great extent from high to low – seven of the eleven finished at 8-8 or 7-9. In some cases, the imbalances were the byproducts of new coaches installing new systems on formerly horrible teams (John Fox's 2002 Panthers and Jon Gruden's 1998 Raiders come to mind), and it's easy to tell that Fox was a defensive mind and Gruden an offensive mixmaster before their first head coaching jobs.
Some Super Bowl winners since 1997 have had large disparities, and we can look at the three teams that are renowned for alleged imbalance – the 1999 St. Louis Rams, the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, and the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Rams, known for their high-flying offense, ranked 1st in offensive DVOA and 3rd on defense. Not what you'd expect from the "Greatest Show on Turf", right? The 2000 Ravens were thought to possess an offense just good enough not to lose games for their incredible defense, and their 21st ranking offensively and 1st rank defensively proves that to be true. The 2002 Buccaneers were the Ravens redux in that regard and their rankings were exactly the same – 21st and 1st. Those unbalanced 1st rankings couldn't reflect run-of-the-mill personnel units, either. Those defenses had to be among the best of all time to win championships despite the liabilities elsewhere.
What does this tell us about the 2006 Oakland Raiders offense? That the principle also works in reverse. It tells us that since 1997, no single element of a team, when broken up into offensive and defensive units, has ever torpedoed an entire organization in quite this fashion.
In that regard, this Raiders team is truly … special.
Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:
"The Jets-Texans announcers must be the CBS "R"-Team. I am pretty sure the next broadcast team they'd send out would be Jeff Probst and the clock from 60 Minutes".
"Michael Vick may not be able to pass, and may be a 'coach killer,' but boy does he have moves."
"Baltimore's second touchdown drive was something Bronko Nagurski would have enjoyed: 8 plays, 47 yards, and six of the plays were essentially runs up the middle."
"Drew Brees just threw a 50-yard, half-ending Hail Mary TD. With triple coverage, the Falcons made a lame attempt at batting down the ball. The primary coverage was DeAngelo Hall, who was in such poor body position he wasn’t able to do any defending. The Falcons took a timeout right before the play began and Daryl Johnson noted, 'they don't get to take those into the locker room with them, so you better use them if you are unsure of what to do. The worst thing would be to get burned on the last play here, so it's best to take the timeout and be sure.' Guess they weren't that sure."
"Boredom is Texans-Jets. Long drive, field goal. Long drive, punt. Rinse, repeat."
"Ben Roethlisberger is getting heat on just about every play, and the distressing thing is how much of the pressure is unblocked. The only time this season I've seen a quarterback under siege to this extent was when Andrew Walter got sacked nine times by the Seahawks a few Monday nights ago. Yes, I just compared the offense of the defending Super Bowl champs to the Oakland Raiders."
"There's a really good chance that neither Edgerrin James nor Shaun Alexander will run for 100 yards in a single game this season. Between them, they did so 20 times in 2005."
"Is anyone really surprised by Edge, though? The guy never saw an eight-man front in his life, and then he moved to a team with an absolutely horrid offensive line. I'd have to say he is who I thought he was."
"It's time for the general populace to realize how good this Oakland defense really is. In the first half, the Chargers - who are currently ranked second in the NFL in offensive DVOA - have gained 55 total yards, have three first downs, are 0 for 4 in third-down conversions, and have had the ball for a whopping eight minutes and twenty-three seconds."
"Yeah, the Raiders defense is great, but their offense handed the Chargers the ball on the 12-yard line and couldn't execute a drive longer than four plays in the second half. The defense can't hold on forever."
"If any of the subjective power ranking writers drop the Bears because they lost, they are complete and total idiots. They just lost by four points on the road against one of the top five or six teams in the league. This does nothing -- nothing -- to prove that the Bears can't win against the best team the AFC has to offer on a neutral field in February.
"Guess who's on my fantasy bench this week? Joseph Addai. Time to trade someone for a receiver."
"The Eagles can blame a lot on the McNabb injury and bad luck, but there is no excuse for the complete and total disintegration of their run defense over the past few weeks. I know they are in nickel a lot tonight, but last time I checked you weren't supposed to stop tackling people just because you had one less linebacker on the field."
Every Sunday, the writers at Football Outsiders e-mail updates and analysis to one another on all the NFL action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:
"McNair got the snot knocked out of him, almost literally. You can see that he was holding his hand up to his face as he woozily walked off the field. Sometimes, guys will get hit hard enough to make things in the sinuses move around. Lesson to players? Blow your nose good before the game."
"Somewhere along the way, the Eagles removed all 10-25 yard passes from their playbook. They have the screen, the short cross, and the 'McNabb hold the ball a long time and throw a bomb'.play."
"Give the Saints credit. Their offensive line is better than anyone expected, and their linebacking corps is not as bad as it looked like it would be at the start of camp."
"The Lions actually looked like a competent NFL team today."
"Is there any sort of fake LaVar Arrington won't fall for? Do his teammates laugh each week when Arrington comes to practice and shows off the watches he bought on Canal Street, or do they just accept it at this point? How much money has he sent to Nigeria?"
"The Texans are no better than they were last year. Andre Johnson is a stud, and the rest of the team is a mess."
"Sports Illustrated had a player pool of who was the top wide receiver in football, and Torry Holt was in the equivalent of "others receiving votes." What a joke. He's a great receiver. Great hands, great routes. He abused the Seahawks throughout the game. He's on his way to his 7th straight 1300 yard season."
"Seattle takes the lead for the first time in the game in the fourth quarter after Kevin Curtis fumbles a kickoff return and Matt Hasselbeck throws to Deion Branch in the end zone two plays later. I need a beer."
"Jeff Fisher was celebrating this win like it was the Music City Miracle. Small victories..."
"In six of the eight early games, the underdog won outright."
"Remember: Just as Kansas City is not as good as they looked against San Francisco, they are also not as bad as they looked today."
"I usually don't root for the Steelers. But I'm enjoying this beat-down."
"The refs called unsportsmanlike conduct on Larry Johnson for flipping Troy Polamalu's hair after the hair-pull tackle. Ridiculous. Like I told my wife: either put it in a bun or cut it if you don't want people doing that to you."
"The Jets managed to keep Ronnie Brown under 6 yards a carry today. Pretty good day for them."
"All I feel for Raiders fans now is pity. Were the NFL ever to take a team into receivership, this might be the one."
Here we are three games into the 2006 season, and Randy Moss is making noise about being traded again. He's coming off two straight down years, and while it's still early, so far he only has 7 catches for 84 yards and a single touchdown. Is Randy Moss done as an elite receiver?
In Moss's defense, a lot of his problems are not his own. He's suffered with poor quarterbacks in Oakland for a year and a half now. Seven catches and 84 receiving yards both actually lead the team this year. Moss has caught just 35 percent of passes thrown in his direction, and that's a number that's likely to improve over time. But historically, receivers with career patterns similar to Moss have a very poor track record.
I ran our three-year similarty scores on Randy's 2003-2005 seasons. Now, standard caveats apply -- we're talking about standard NFL stats, not our advanced stats. These stats aren't adjusted for opponent, or for the quality of each player's quarterback or team, or for specific issues in each player's career, like injuries. But here are the players most similar to Moss over a three-year span, normalized to the offensive environment of each season:
John Jefferson (1980-1982*): One more 800-yard season, out of the league by age 30. Mike Quick (1985-1987*): Only played 18 more NFL games with 871 total yards, out of the league by age 32. Antonio Freeman (1998-2000): Never topped 820 yards again, out of the league by age 32. Lynn Swann (1978-1980): Never topped 600 yards again, out of the league by age 31. Carl Pickens (1996-1998): Never topped 800 yards again, out of the league by age 31. Dwight Clark (1982*-1984): Never topped 800 yards again, out of the league by age 31. Isaac Bruce (2000-2002): Had at least two more productive seasons. Carlos Carson (1983-1985): Injured in 1986, over 1,000 yards during strike year of 1987, then faded out. Out of the league by age 32. Michael Irvin (1995-1997): One more 1,000-yard year, out of the league by 2000. May not be a good comparison because while his stats are very similar, he was three years older than Moss during the years being compared. Terrence Mathis (1994-1996): 800 yards in 1997, then topped 1,000 yards again in 1998 and 1999. Played until age 35.
Again, every player listed here was in different circumstances. But this list features a lot of guys who, like Randy Moss, had huge years in their mid-20's, and most of them never recovered after their performance slid in their late-20's. By the way, Moss is 29 this year.
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