Here's what we were talking about at Football Outsiders over the Wild Card weekend:
"This Colts first drive has been all runs and checkdowns. Apparently, the Colts' offensive plan is to keep their own defense off the field."
"Herm Edwards might be the worst in-game manager in all of sports."
"If it weren't for the two penalties on the punt return team, I'd say the Colts' defense and special teams have been entirely replaced by actual professional football players."
"My god, is Ty Law a lucky mofo."
"What's up with all these drops? Are they using the new NBA ball or something?"
"OK, this was funny and all, but does the real Chiefs-Colts game start after halftime?"
"It is 6:32 PM Eastern time. The Chiefs have their first first down."
"The long Indianapolis third-quarter drive that ended with the Joseph Addai touchdown run - 12 plays, 89 yards and seven minutes off the clock - was a masterpiece of consistent, measured playcalling. The Colts saw that gasping defense, and they went with the Long, Slow Goodbye. Just great football."
"I don't know if its the Colts defense suddenly changing into Mr Hyde. I don't know if its the absolute inability of Herm Edwards to change a plan that clearly wasn't working. But this was a stunning game."
"Why is Kelly Jennings solo on Owens? He weights about 175 pounds and isn't a good tackler."
"Why is Pete Hunter solo on Terry Glenn? Dude, it isn't like the Seahawks have choices right now."
"Let's start a pool... when will Tony Romo finally throw a pass above a guy's ankles?"
"Did Seattle just call a DRAW TO THE FULLBACK on third-and-7 in the red zone? Who thought that one up?"
"The two fourth-down conversions on Seattle's first touchdown drive were nice flashbacks to the past. Of course, there's nothing line a 93-yard punt return touchdown on the next play to kill that momentum!"
"That was one of the goofiest defensive plays I've ever seen. Catch, fumble, but the ball went out of bounds in the air before Lofa Tatupu batted it back in."
"This is going to be the longest replay challenge in the history of replay challenges."
"Well, it's hard to say that the same week as that Boise State game. A couple weird plays are nothing compared to that thing."
"As a statistical analyst, it is not my job, nor is it my forte, to psychoanalyze Tony Romo and figure out what this mistake will mean for the rest of his career. However, this will not stop many, many writers and talking heads from doing just that over the next few days."
"Psychoanalyze Romo? Who would do such a thing? 'Hey, Carrie's man, what's your game, boy? Can anybody play?'"
"Chad Pennington surprises me with his arm strength when he throws downfield."
"I'm surprised that the Pats sideline is in the sun to the point that Bill Belichick is continuously shielding his eyes with his arm. (I guess he can't afford a visor to go with his hoodie.) This seems like exactly the sort of detail Belichick would have micromanaged."
"Watching Belichick and Mangini trying to outsmart each other is kinda like two Mathletes having a nerd off while everybody else in junior high is as the dance."
"Shawne Merriman is on national TV at halftime, and he can't put on a shirt? He's either wearing a wifebeater, suspenders, or a pair of overalls without a shirt, like the big guy from the original Final Fight."
"Kickoff distance is one of those things that nobody notices without looking at the numbers first, but the difference between Steve Gostkowski and Mike Nugent has been mind-bogglingly obvious this week."
"I don't agree at all with what Phil Simms just said: 'You look at this 37-16 score and it's misleading.' The Pats pretty much dominated this game. The Jets had a handful of good drives, but this was basically the Patriots' game all day. At halftime when it was 17-10, they commented that all the stats (16-7 first downs, for example) showed that the Patriots were dominating, and that was right. The score just started to reflect that by the end."
"Cris Collinsworth last night: 'Kevin Gilbride has changed the outlook on offense; they run Tiki Barber and they throw the ball long.' Yeah sure, that's not at all what the Giants offensive game plan looked like for all of 2005 and 2006 prior to last week.
"Jared Lorenzen: The unholy offspring of Michael Vick and Refrigerator Perry."
"Somebody needs to get the Giants offensive line some anti-anxiety medicine or something."
"Koy Detmer earns his paycheck with two tough holds on field goals on a rainy day. Koy for MVP."
"The only person who was playing with any sort of urgency in that game was Tiki Barber. The performance was entirely indistinguishable from any other Giants game this season, and I'd like to think that they'd focus more and play better. I'm normally not inclined to blame a performance on a coach, but this team isn't going to get any better with Coughlin at the helm. They need a change."
"Seeing Jeremy Shockey stretching for first downs with his helmet knocked off, taking off Coughlin's headphones to talk to him... he seemed to be playing with urgency. And you've got to give Plaxico Burress credit for some good receptions there. On the other hand, when your tight end is coming up to your head coach and just taking off his headphones to talk to him, and your offensive line then false starts 37 times, yeah, I don't think the discipline thing is working."
"I think the Giants were playing hard out there, but you don't just flip a switch and acquire intensity. If you have a month of the season where everyone is playing like ####, yapping in the media, and tuning out the coach, then you have dozens of practices that are just shot to hell. Guys can fly around on Sunday and hit hard and yell and scream, but football requires precision and controlled aggression. The Giants have been an imprecise team all year."
So, we've got most of Weeks 1-14 now compiled in our game charting project, and four very important games to analyze, so I thought perhaps I would go through and see what the charting data says about the wild card weekend games. Standard caveats, of course: this data is unofficial, compiled by volunteers, we're missing some games, and it is hard to always see who was in coverage when using TV tape.
Kansas City at Indianapolis
Last year our stats said that Jason David made a successful play on a higher percentage of passes than Nick Harper, but when he gave up a completion, it went for more yards. This year, their stats are virtually identical in every way. The only difference is that the average pass David faces is 13 yards in the air, the average pass for Harper just 10 yards in the air.
("Made a successful play" does not mean just an incomplete or interception; it also applies to a complete pass that does not gain 45% of yards on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third down.)
Indy had 32 passes marked "Hole in Zone," more
than any other team. That's 10.3% of the total charted passes marked with a
defender of some sort. The second-highest team was Jacksonville (7.2%).
KC had only 6 passes marked Hole in Zone, which makes sense,
since Gunther Cunningham loves man coverage. Unfortunately, he's got just one guy who can pull it off. For two years now, the game charting has said that Ty Law is now a subpar cornerback. We've got 51 passes targeted at Ty Law, averaging 9.5 yards per pass. We've got just 32 targeted at Patrick Surtain, averaging 6.2 yards per pass -- even though the average pass at Surtain actually traveled slightly longer in the air (10.5 yards to 10.1 yards). We've got almost as many passes targeted at Lenny Walls, the nickel back, as we do targeted at Surtain.
Dallas at Seattle
We covered this one a couple weeks ago. The numbers on the Dallas cornerbacks are fairly similar and all worse than last year, but there are many more passes thrown at Anthony Henry than thrown at Terrance Newman. And our charting doesn't include most of the recent period where the Dallas pass defense imploded.
Seattle numbers are pretty worthless given all the injuries. Jordan Babineaux's numbers sucked as a cornerback last year. There's going to be a LOT of passing in this game.
New York Jets at New England
Asante Samuel is your lord and master. He allowed just 4.7 yards per pass, which is the lowest of any cornerback in the league with at least 30 charted passes except for R.W. McQuarters. Except the average pass against McQuarters was FIVE YARDS SHORTER than the average pass against Samuel, and we charted nearly twice as many passes against Samuel because McQuarters is a nickel back. Samuel also had a high 61% stop rate (stopping plays short of success). Ellis Hobbs and Chad Scott had similar, average stats, which is strange because it seemed like Scott was burned constantly. Hobbs was one of the best guys in the league in these stats last year but struggled with injuries in 2006.
Usually the nickel back faces shorter passes, because he's facing guys trying to convert third downs, but David Barrett of New York faced an average pass that went 15 yards in the air, compared to just 10 for starters Andre Dyson and Justin Miller. Miller's stats were pathetic as a rookie but much better this year. Dyson and Miller allowed the same average yards per pass (7.7) but Dyson was successful against just 40% of passes, Miller against 55% of passes. Barrett had excellent numbers, but I'm guessing that's a sample size fluke caused by a few overthrown bombs.
New York Giants at Philadelphia
If the charting numbers are to be believed, the safeties in New York are horrible.
Kevin Dockery's 12 yards per pass was #1 among all players with at least 30 charted
passes. Will Demps' 9.8 is eighth. Both had stop rate of 36%, the only defensive
back worse than that was Travis Fisher of St. Louis.
As for the cornerbacks, as mentioned above, R.W. McQuarters comes out with great stats, which is really weird and completely goes against the subjective view of my eyes any time I watched the Giants. Corey Webster was thrown at more often than Sam Madison, giving up slightly more yards per pass with a slightly lower stop rate.
Last year in Philly, Sheldon Brown and Roderick Hood both ranked among the best in the league while an injured Lito Sheppard was near the bottom. This year, Hood was the injured corner with the subpar stats, and Sheppard's stats were near the top of the league. Injuries are bad, huh? Anyway, Sheppard had a stop rate of 62%, one of the best in the league, and allowed just 5.4 yards per pass, and that doesn't even take into account all his timely interceptions. Brown had a stop rate of 57% and allowed 8.6 yards per charted pass (in his defense, he faced longer passes on average). Hood's stats don't mean much since we're missing the recent weeks where he was actually healthy.
In a few weeks, I'll be selecting the Too Deep Zone All Rookie Team. With the help of Michael David Smith and some of the other Football Outsiders, I select an entire team of rookies to honor, right down to the special teams gunners. I also pick a Rookie of the Year, which is never an easy task. This year, it's really difficult.
I drew up my first draft of the All Rookie Team about a month ago. Back then, the ROY question was easy: Marques Colston was the odds-on favorite for the award. But after a remarkable three-game stretch in which he caught 27 passes (19 of them for first downs or touchdowns), Colston missed three games with an injury. During his time with the pit crew, lots of other competitors gained ground.
Just after Colston got hurt, Joseph Addai had his monster 171-yard, four-touchdown Monday night game. If Addai followed that performance up with a few other great games, he would be the clear favorite ROY candidate. But he has rushed for just 56 and 22 yards in his last two games and hasn't done much as a receiver lately. Maurice Jones-Drew and Laurence Maroney have similar resumes to Addai: a few great games, value as a runner, receiver, and return man (Addai isn't a return man but has more offensive yards than the others), and some highlight-reel plays to capture the imagination. Reggie Bush is in the same category but hasn't been quite as good. If there are three or four similar players vying for an award, it may be a sign that none of them has distinguished himself enough to earn the award. But I haven't ruled any of them out.
Vince Young has leapt into the spotlight in the last few weeks. He has been impressive as a runner and (to a lesser extent) a passer during the Titans' four-game winning streak. But I'm wary of anoint a quarterback as the ROY because he "won" or got hot at the right time. Young's DPAR – 7.9 as a passer, 1.7 as a rusher – is good for a rookie but not overwhelming.
DPAR, of course, is Football Outsiders' top tool for evaluating players. Addai's DPAR is a whopping 33.2 as a runner, far outstripping Jones-Drew (10.7) or Maroney (2.5). Addai has them beat as a receiver, too, and kick return yardage can't really make up the difference. Colston's 25.9 DPAR is within striking distance of Addai. But I'm not obligated to choose the rookie DPAR champion as ROY. Other factors come into play, like the strength of the rookie's supporting cast. After watching Edgerrin James flop in Arizona, I'm convinced that it's really easy to run the ball in the Colts offense. That's not a knock on Addai, but if he continues to slip in the next few weeks, it'll be taken into account.
Why does the ROY have to be a "skill position" player? A month ago, before Addai's big game, I had Jets' center Nick Mangold penciled in as the runner-up to Colston. I have film evidence that Mangold has had a great season, plus lots of press clippings. The FO stats say that the Jets line has been playing relatively well, and their playoff run has been a pleasant surprise. If there were no high-profile candidates at quarterback, receiver, or running back, I would tap Mangold. At this point, I don't want to pick a lineman just to be cool. (Hey, look how much smarter than everyone else I am for picking this guy!) Do you really like Mangold better than Colston, Young, or Addai? I don't, but if that trio plays poorly over the next two weeks, Mangold may still get the nod.
The same goes for defensive players. Last year, I gave serious consideration to DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Lofa Tutupu, and Odell Thurman as ROY candidates. But this year's rookie defensive class isn't as impressive as last year's. DeMeco Ryans of the Texans has Defensive Rookie of the Year all but locked up. His raw totals: 105 solo tackles, 3.5 sacks, 12 tackles for a loss, an interception, six passes defensed – blow away the competition. Dig deeper, and you discover that Ryans isn't just making clean-up tackles. But again, does he have something that the offensive stars don't? If he does, I can't find it.
Late Monday night, a final contender entered the field: Devin Hester. Check out the Bears special teams DVOA: a whopping 14.8 on punt returns, and that doesn't count Hester's missed field goal return. That may not compare to Addai or Colston's DPAR, but the impact of Hester's returns has been huge. Hester doesn't contribute much to the Bears defense, and I haven't seen him on offense yet, though I have a feeling I will. He's on the list.
Clearly, the ROY race is going right down to the wire. The list goes live just before Week 17, so Addai, Colston, Hester, Young, and the dark horses have two more weeks to (further) impress me. I have a feeling that I will be giving a lot of "runner-up" and "honorable mention" notices this year.
Each week, the Football Outsiders staff e-mails one another with updates about Sunday's games. Here's what we were talking about this week:
"At 1:55 PM EST, I witness my first Eagles first down. I am not a happy dude."
"Wow. Steve McNair just threw a ball directly at two Saints defenders -- both of whom whiffed on it -- and Todd Heap gets a touchdown surprise with
seconds to go in the first half. Man, this Billick guy really is a genius."
"The Bears took a 24-0 lead before the Niners executed their 8th play from scrimmage."
"Reggie Bush has been off his game all day, and he just tried to bounce a running play outside for a three-yard loss. As #### Engberg so aptly noted, this is the difference between the Pac-10 and the NFL."
"Boomer Esiason said on CBS post-game that David Garrard was the reason the Jaguars beat the Eagles, and that the Jaguars just play better with him in there. Unbelieveable. Garrard threw for 87 yards. The Jaguars ran all over a Philly defense that bit on every misdirection and completely forgot how to wrap up tackles. The Jaguars defense was all over the Eagles, who couldn't hold onto any passes. And Garrard is the reason they won. Sure."
"David Carr has been lifted for Sage Rosenfeld. Ouch!"
"The Titans seem to have gotten their defense together the last few weeks. If they finish 5-11, will Jeff Fisher still be fired? If so, how many teams will fire their coach and hope to pick Fisher up?"
"Who had Owen Daniels in his fantasy league?"
"Note to NFL quarterbacks – if you’re facing the Seahawks, and you have third and long, just heave the ball over the middle. Your guy will have 20 yards of open space all around him."
"When Ty Law is considered for the Hall of Fame, this game won't be on his highlight film. He dropped what could have been the easiest interception of his career. A couple plays later, he fell down and Darrell Jackson was wide open to catch a floater from Seneca Wallace for the touchdown. I think there was a pump-fake and maybe Law wanted to make up for the missed interception."
"This current defense will keep the Seahawks out of the playoffs. And it should be thing that gets them in, from a talent standpoint."
"Just got back from the Giants game. However bad the wind looked on the field, it was worse in person. Neither team could do much of anything in conditions like that. Still, I didn't like Jon Gruden's gameplan, throwing 50 passes with a rookie QB in those conditions in a game they never trailed by more than two scores.
"Imagine what the Cardinals could do if their skill position players all had a good day at the same time."
"The Colts Broncos game has turned into a battle to see which is more powerful, the Peyton Manning offense, or the colossal power of suck emanating from the galaxy-sized Hoover that is the Indianapolis run defense."
"I liken Ben Roethlisberger to an old television set. If it's a little fuzzy, you hit it once and it works great. You hit again and it's back to being fuzzy".
"Roethlisberger just threw his fourth pick, this one for a 100-yard touchdown return. The rest of his throws have been awful. I mean, they've been so bad that somewhere Tommy Maddox is saying, in between giggling uncontrollably, 'Now that's an awful interception.'"
"When was the last time you saw Randy Moss do something really impressive?"
"The Jets got screwed. Don't get me wrong, the rules are the rules, and it's a split second decision. However, they got screwed. It's their own fault. They made so many mistakes during the game to eventually putthemselves in a position in which they could get screwed. So it goes."
"It seems like Bill Parcells is auditioning for Weekend at Bernie's 3. Has he reacted to anything? False starts, turnovers, questionable calls by the official ... he just stares into space like Art Shell."
"Jake Delhomme just went through a very Drew Bledsoe-like progression. He held onto the ball too long, threw late to his first read into double coverage, and got intercepted. All he needed was a star on his helmet and cement feet."
Football Outsiders is the Internet's #1 home for intelligent NFL analysis. Our NFL articles for FOX include Quick Reads, DVOA ratings, Too Deep Zone, the Wednesday rundown, and many others.
