It's July, and nothing, nada, diddly-squat is happening in the NFL. That hasn't stopped me from watching the NFL Network every day. Watching NFLN in July is like watching the Weather Channel on a clear day. It's repetitive, and there's nothing to talk about, but the pretty colors and the cool jazz keep you tuned in.

Here's what I've learned.

In their continuing effort to spin straw into gold, the Saints acquired former Eagles linebacker Dhancin' Dhani Jones to help bolster their run defense. Wow, I wrote that sentence without snickering. To get into the Big Easy spirit, Jones may change his victory celebration from Air Banjo to Air Trombone; he'll toot the imaginary horn after he makes an important tackle (in other words, once every four games). Before signing with the Saints, Jones said he would work for Al Gore as an environmental activist. I feel bad for the Saints defense, but on the flip side, I'm suddenly optimistic about the giant panda.

Jones was on NFLN on Friday reciting poetry. Remember that awkward moment when your girlfriend opened her journal and shared her soul-bearing blank verse with you? ("Here I sit, listening to Morrissey, my heart an empty shell.") Now imagine your girlfriend weighing 230 pounds and wearing a bowtie. That's what NFLN was like on Friday.

In other Saints news, a group of Saintsations cheerleaders has been touring Iraq. The troupe performs at military bases around the Middle East, traveling from gig to gig in Black Hawk helicopters. Talk about Bombshells over Baghdad. The tour has been going smoothly except for one hitch. At a mobile army surgical hospital, a hairy Lebanese corporal donned a miniskirt and pompoms and attempted to sneak off with the girls. He was captured and sentenced to room with Jones in training camp.

The Falcons signed NFL Europa receiver Noriaki Kinoshita, who if he makes the team will be the first player born in Japan to play in the NFL. Bobby Petrino was initially excited by the move, then disappointed to learn that Kinoshita cannot throw a Gyroball. Michael Vick and other Falcons were also disappointed that the long time Amsterdam Admiral didn't smuggle any extra goodies with him from overseas. They hoped Kinoshita could score one of those hard-to-find Nintendo Wii systems. What were you thinking?

For months, NFLN has been running an American Heart Association public service announcement featuring Steve Smith and a bunch of kids running, skating, and swimming. The "Get Up and Move" spots were fast-paced and good-natured efforts to encourage kids to exercise, and Smith looked comfortable in front of the camera. Recently, the PSA was edited: Steve Smith is out, with Matt Leinart in his place. Leinart displays all of the charisma of a department store mannequin and reads his few lines as though he's translating on the fly from Lebanese. This guy is supposed to be "Hollywood"? On camera, he's barely Glendale.

Watching the Smith PSAs made my son want to swim the English Channel and hang glide over the Grand Canyon. But when he saw Leinart, he grabbed a crate a Pop Tarts and a blanket and settled in for a Spongebob marathon. It's time to retire the Leinart ads. The health of our children is at stake.

Don't get me wrong. I like Dhani Jones. He's a Renaissance man. The trouble is, they didn't have football in the Renaissance.

In non-NFLN news, the Sporting News season preview is out, and the otherwise solid publication predicts that the Cowboys will go 13-3 this season. Yes, 13-3. Who is making these predictions … Jon Kitna? Seriously, for the Lions to win 11 games (as predicted by the Oracle of Kitna) and the Cowboys to win 13, the Vikings will have to lose about 34 games.

Speaking of the sports bible, Donovan McNabb's rehabilitation from an ACL tear is on schedule. The Sporting News reported a few weeks ago that McNabb's regimen includes games of tag to improve agility and stop-start strength in the knee. Tag is no laughing matter: the collective bargaining agreement strictly prohibits Kick the Can, and rumor has it that Eric Mangini keeps his players in shape with a vigorous Red Light, Green Light drill. Donovan was apparently playing traditional tag, not freeze tag or TV tag ("Grey's Anatomy! You can't touch me!") TSN reports that at one point, a cornered McNabb improvised, stood at attention, and declared, "I'm a tree. You can't tag a tree." There's no truth to the rumor, however, that McNabb was hanging out with Kinoshita in Amsterdam.

I just realized that my Spell Checker is happily accepting "Kinoshita" without a little red underline. A quick Google search reveals a stunning model named Ayumi Kinoshita, a film director named Keisuki Kinoshita, a hotel named Casa Kinoshita in San Miguel, Mexico, and an NFL Europa receiver who was just signed by the Falcons. Apparently, Kinoshita is a fairly common name in Japan, and possibly Mexico. I'm told Tanier is pretty common in France, but Spell Checker never accepted it until I added it. Maybe if I could throw a Gyroball, or something.

Rookie tight end Greg Olsen signed a contract with the Bears. Olsen is eager to be in camp on time; he wants to master his timing with Rex Grossman. When he does, he'll be the first.

Okay, I'll cop: I watched a lot of NFLN on Friday because I thought I would be on. Indie filmmaker Tim Carr was hawking his movie "Leaf, an Almost True Story," and I appear in the film as a football humorist/historian. Yep, a stretch. Sadly, I wasn't in the clip Carr used, probably because I have the screen charisma of Matt Leinart.

Mike Nolan and Jack Del Rio have once again gotten league permission to wear cheap-looking suits designed by a sneaker company during games. The NFL should adopt a rule that if a coach wears a sneaker suit, then his players must wear Armani cleats. I don't have a problem with suits per se, and I know Nolan wears one as a tribute to his sick father, but I wish these guys were allowed to line up their own formalwear endorsements like NBA coaches. The typical NBA coach looks like who he is: a high-profile executive for a successful multi-million dollar corporation. The sneaker suits make Nolan and Del Rio look like Salesmen of the Month at the local used Hyundai dealership.

It could be worse, though. Rumor has it that liberal firebrand Michael Moore is working on a new film called "Slobbo," an expose on how Bill Belichick's wardrobe choices have unintended consequences for low-wage garment industry employees. In one of the film's most dramatic scenes, Moore and Belichick visit a dry cleaner for the first time in their lives.

Aaron would be miffed if I didn't mention that Football Prospectus will be out in just two weeks. A quick look at the Amazon sales board on Friday found us ranked 1,505th among books, pretty darn good for two weeks before the drop date. I told Aaron that we should call it Football Prospectus and the Deathly Hallows, but the muggle never listens to me. We're ranked 30th in sports books. Take that, Inner Game of Tennis! Be sure to check us out, even if sobriety prevents us from predicting a 13-3 season for the Cowboys or 11-5 season for the Lions.

Finally, as the father of two small children, I watch nothing but kiddie programming when I am not glued to NFL Network. I also see all of the superhero movies. I saw Spider-Man 3 and was disturbed by the amount of time Peter Parker spent dancing in the movie. I saw Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, and shielded my eyes as Reed Richards performed an elaborate dance at a New York club. Superheroes should not dance. Remember the Batutsi? Be glad you don't.

I bring this up because I haven't seen Transformers yet, but I heard a song from the soundtrack by the Goo Goo Dolls. It's a ballad. Worse yet, it is in 3/4 time, making it a waltz. A Giant Robot that Turns into Motorized Vehicle to Fight Evil Waltz. Mark my word, if champagne bubbles start floating and Optimus Prime starts waltzing in that movie, I am taking my kids and marching right out of the theater.

And if old Optimus starts playing Air Banjo or reciting poetry, I'm demanding a refund.

post by Mike Tanier

Remember when we all used to wait for June 1, when all kinds of veterans would be cut for salary cap purposes? Teams waited for that day so they could postpone the cap charges by a year. Nowadays teams are doing a much better job of managing the cap, so nobody really needs to push things back by waiting until June 1 to cut someone. Instead, teams seem to be using March 1 as the deadline, so they can officially open up room in the budget before free agency starts on March 2. As an added bonus, cutting a veteran now is just a nicer thing to do, because it is easier to find another job in March than to find another job in June.

So a lot of players were cut over the last couple days. Some of them were surprising, some not. I thought I would take a look at Football Outsiders similarity scores to see what they suggest about these players in the future, should they sign with new teams. Unfortunately, similarity scores are limited to "skill players" on offense. In my opinion, the best player cut over the last couple of days is clearly linebacker Joey Porter, but we can't do one of these for him.

Similarity scores were first created for baseball by Bill James. (Honestly, what wasn't first created for baseball by Bill James?) The basic idea is that we compare players by subtracting a certain amount of points from 1000 based on the differences between statistics: receptions, yards, carries, passes, completion percentage, you name it. The football similarity scores also subtract points for every year difference in age and every year difference in NFL experience. (One player might come out as a redshirt senior, another as a non-redshirt junior, so these can be different.) The goal there is to get a list of similar players at a similar point in their careers. But even better, you can get a list of similar career paths by looking at two or three years in a row.

Obviously, we're using standard stats, so nothing is adjusted for opponent and we don't consider whether a receiver had to suffer with a bad quarterback in a particular year, or anything like that. This is not for hard research, but it's a fun little tool, and it does prove useful. (For example, the list of running backs similar to Shaun Alexander from 2003-2005 includes a lot of guys who got injured the next year.)

My database for similarity scores goes from 1978-2006. (We start in 1978 because of the liberalization of passing rules that year.) 1982 and 1987 get pro-rated for the strike. I'll list the top 10 most similar players for each guy, not counting other players from 2004-2006 -- those guys are listed, but not counted in the top 10. I'm only listing the third year for each guy.

Joe Horn

1) Yancey Thigpen, 1999 Oilers
2) Alfred Jenkins, 1983 Falcons
3) John Stallworth, 1986 Steelers
4) Stanley Morgan, 1988 Patriots
5) Frank Lewis, 1983 Bills
6) Steve Largent, 1989 Seahawks
7) Fred Barnett, 1996 Dolphins
8) Jimmy Smith, 2003 Jaguars
9) Rob Moore, 1999 Cardinals
X) Muhsin Muhammad, 2006 Bears
10) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets

This is a list of great veteran receivers, like Horn. You've got a couple Hall of Famers, and some franchise legends like Morgan and Smith. But four of these guys didn't play the next year. Five of them were part-time players the next year, which is also true of the next couple players on the list (J.T. Smith, Roy Green, Terance Mathis). Only Jimmy Smith rebounded to his prior level of play with 1,172 yards and six touchdowns. Joe Horn may be useful next year, but after two down years and lots of nagging injuries, I don't think you can trust him to be more than your third option.

Eric Moulds

1) Terance Mathis, 2001 Falcons
2) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets
3) Andre Reed, 1999 Bills
4) Anthony Carter, 1991 Vikings
X) Rod Smith, 2006 Broncos
5) Tim Brown, 2003 Raiders
X) Keyshawn Johnson, 2006 Panthers
6) Drew Hill, 1992 Falcons
7) Keenan McCardell, 2002 Bucs
8) Troy Brown, 2003 Patriots
9) Webster Slaughter, 1995 Chiefs
10) Ahmad Rashad, 1982 Vikings

This is another list of good veteran receivers, although not as good as the list for Horn, which makes sense, since Moulds in general was not as good as Horn. Like the list for Horn, one player on the list did continue to play at a high level, Keenan McCardell. Troy Brown became a two-way player the next year, but I don't think Eric Moulds will be doing that. In general, this is the same deal as above: most of these guys were part-time receivers the next season. The difference is that fewer of these guys retired, maybe because when you play at the level of Steve Largent, it's easier to quit knowing you have nothing else to prove.

Keenan McCardell

X) Joe Jurevicius, 2006 Browns
1) Ricky Proehl, 2002 Rams
2) Nat Moore, 1986 Dolphins
3) Roy Green, 1991 Eagles
4) John Taylor, 1994 49ers
5) Mike Sherrard, 1995 Giants
6) Mark Clayton, 1992 Dolphins
7) Ed McCaffrey, 2003 Broncos
8) Roger Carr, 1981 Colts
9) Qadry Ismail, 2002 Colts
10) Mel Gray, 1981 Cardinals

Yes, the most similar player to Keenan McCardell is another active player. Frankly, none of these players is really that similar to McCardell. For example, McCardell was 36 last season, older than all 11 players listed above. McCardell has one of the strangest career patterns in NFL history. The Browns goofed around with him for three years, playing him mostly on special teams. They finally had him start in 1995, and he put up a good but not great year of 709 yards and four touchdowns. Then he signed a free agent contract with Jacksonville, and managed at least 1,100 yards in four of the next six years -- even though he was the number two receiver on the team behind Jimmy Smith.

So at 32, he signs with Tampa Bay. Personally, he has a decline year, only 670 yards, but he also wins a Super Bowl title. Looks like a guy who finally got a ring just as his career was about to hit the same place Joe Horn has been in the last two years, right? Except McCardell then goes and has the best season of his entire career at age 33. When Keyshawn Johnson threw his little hissy fit, McCardell became the number one receiver on his team for the first time in his entire career -- in his TWELFTH season.

Wait, there's more! He takes this positive momentum and holds out for half a season. He wins out, gets traded to San Diego, plays okay in a few games, then the next year at age 35 he has another great year including a career-high 9 touchdowns. Who the hell else has a career high in touchdowns at the age of 35? One year later, in 2006, he finally collapsed, and by the end of the year he was barely on the field.

What's really strange is that if I listed every appearance by a player, rather than just the most similar season, 4 of the top 14 most similar three-year spans to Keenan McCardell 2004-2006 belong to Ricky Proehl in any three-year period between 2000 and 2005. So if McCardell wants to sign somewhere next year and play in the Ricky Proehl role, it's there for the taking. I hear the Colts need a Ricky Proehl to replace, you know, the actual Ricky Proehl. Otherwise, it's retirement time.

Jamal Lewis

1) Rodney Hampton, 1995 Giants
2) Jerome Bettis, 1999 Steelers
3) Mike Pruitt, 1983 Browns
4) Adrian Murrell, 1998 Cardinals
5) Sammy Winder, 1987 Broncos
6) Joe Morris, 1988 Giants
X) Thomas Jones, 2006 Bears
7) Mike Rozier, 1988 Oilers
8) Thurman Thomas, 1996 Bills
9) George Rogers, 1985 Redskins
10) Earl Campbell, 1983 Oilers

You look at that list, and you say, "Wow. Jamal Lewis has a future. Jerome Bettis? Jerome Bettis had some great years since 1999." Well, don't be quite so optimistic. Like Keenan McCardell, Jerome Bettis has had a particularly unique career. Very few players have been burnt out by a high number of carries, then worked their way back to their previous level of performance. Bettis did it TWICE, in 2001 and then again in 2004. Could Jamal Lewis do that? Well, he was great back when he was great, right? But so were the other guys on this list.

Other than Bettis, what you have here is a list of a lot of players who were great in their youth and then declined in their late 20s, but kept on plugging along with 200-carry years at 3.6-3.8 yards per carry. George Rogers is the only one of these players to average more than 4.1 yards per carry the next season. You've got the aborted Joe Morris Cleveland comeback, Earl Campbell getting traded to New Orleans... ah, memories. If you want to be relevant in 2007, Jamal, get on the phone to Jerome Bettis immediately and ask for training tips.

Drew Bledsoe

1) Ron Jaworski, 1986 Eagles
2) Jim Plunkett, 1984 Raiders
3) Bobby Hebert, 1994 Falcons
X) Kerry Collins, 2006 Titans
4) Phil Simms, 1991 Giants
5) Brad Johnson, 2004 Bucs
6) Danny White, 1986 Cowboys
7) Tommy Maddox, 2004 Steelers
X) Trent Green, 2006 Chiefs
8) Ken O'Brien, 1992 Jets
9) Archie Manning, 1981 Saints
10) Jeff Hostetler, 1997 Redskins

Dude, it's over.

Post by Aaron Schatz

If you read the FO blog regularly, you may remember that, halfway through the season, we introduced very early results from our game charting project. And surprisingly, those results had Fred Thomas as one of the better cornerbacks in the league in the early going. It was surprising because he's never been thought of as very good, and even more surprising as the season went on because Thomas was clearly one of the most flammable cornerbacks in the league in November and December.

Well, I think I have discovered why the early numbers were positive on Thomas. I just finished charting the second half of Carolina's Week 4 win over New Orleans, which was one of the unfinished games in the charting project. And Thomas sucked enough in this game to make up for the entire rest of the first month of the season.

At no time did Thomas get burned deep, except when he bit hard on a flea-flicker and completely left his man. Instead, this game showed the other problem with a bad cornerback. Because Thomas had to give so much room to Steve Smith (or sometimes Keyshawn Johnson) in order to prevent getting burned, he gave up tons of completions on hook routes and comeback routes.

Over the course of the game, we have 14 passes with Thomas in coverage: 11 to Steve Smith, 3 to Keyshawn Johnson. 13 of them were caught, and the 14th was caught but Steve Smith was sliding out of bounds so it was overturned on replay. Including the overturned catch as zero, the average play gained 8.2 yards. Based on the usual FO markers for success, 11 of the 14 passes were successful for the Panthers, but not one gained more than 17 yards.

9 of the 13 catches had no yards after catch, and 3 of the catches that had yards after catch were either screens or quick hitches (a.k.a. the "smoke" route) that are called because the cornerback is playing too far back off his man. It was just hook after hook. Run, turn, catch, tackle. Run, turn, catch, tackle. Over and over.

I haven't heard the Saints mentioned in the Nate Clements sweepstakes. Nor have I heard them mentioned as possible trade partners to get Dre' Bly out of Detroit. But they should seriously consider one or the other, because that cornerback spot is the biggest hole on the team going into 2007.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Warren Margolies:I read your article about the 370 Carry Theory with great interest, since I had been assuming that LJ was going to be my fantasy football keeper for years to come. Since I read the article, I've been debating doing the seemingly unthinkable and keeping Reggie Bush instead of LJ... is this too reactionary?

I normally trust Scott Engel from ESPN.com, who pointed out that LJ didn't become a full-time back until the second half of '05. What is your opinion on Bush vs. LJ for the next few years?

Aaron Schatz: The fact that LJ was not a full time back until the middle of 2005 doesn't matter. Jamal Lewis got cut down by overuse after a single season. What does matter is that fantasy and reality are not the same thing. There is a good chance of LJ having a catastrophic injury, or nagging injuries that cost him games. But there's also a good chance of him slowing down, but still keeping a starting job at 4 yards per carry, with 1,200 yards and a dozen touchdowns. That player would come out as average in the FO stats, a big step down for Larry, but that's still an every-week starting fantasy running back.

And I'm not sure what Bush's future holds, fantasywise. Despite his awesome second half, it's still hard to figure out how Sean Payton will use him going forward. Obviously, he has more value if you play in a points per reception league.

I think I would try to deal LJ for a more standard RB than Bush, but one who has less risk than LJ. Rudi Johnson, perhaps, or Frank Gore. If you think LJ's perceived value is higher than his real value, don't ditch him, flip him.

By the way, the hidden fact in the Patriots win over the Chargers: It prevented LaDainian Tomlinson from entering the danger zone of 390 carries in the playoffs + postseason.

Since you’ll be reading scouting reports on every possible aspect of the upcoming Conference Championship games, we thought it would be enlightening to add the FO perspective on another aspect – the officials for both games. Football Outsiders keeps a database with every penalty called per season, but the important thing to note when reading this article is that playoff officials don’t work with the crews that are assigned to them through the regular season – the postseason games get all-star crews. This means, of course, that tendencies may be different, and we don’t have the names of each crew member, just the head officials. But those head officials have a lot of impact on what gets called.

New Orleans at Chicago: Terry McAulay

McAulay, an NFL official since 1998, started his career as a side judge and was promoted to his current position of referee (crew chief) in 2001. He has officiated one Super Bowl - XXXIX on February 6, 2005, when the Patriots beat the Eagles, 24-21. This will be his third Conference Championship game. In 2006, McAulay called the second-most penalties (239) for the fourth-most yards (1,655). His 6.924 yards per penalty was 13th in the NFL.

The Bears were the NFL’s fifth-most penalized team in 2006, with 133 for 923 yards. The Saints were Chicago’s mirror image - with only 90 penalties for 597 yards, they finished fifth from the bottom in total penalties called.

Both teams were in the middle of the pack in false starts (the NFL’s most commonly called penalty this season by far) – Chicago with 22 and the Saints with 23. Where the teams differed was in the second most common infraction, offensive holding. Chicago was called 23 times for holding, while New Orleans had only 16 holds. The Bears had 13 more defensive offsides calls than the Saints (18-5), though New Orleans had twice as many defensive pass interference penalties (4-2). It’s also worth noting Chicago’s nine unnecessary roughness calls, three times more than New Orleans’.

Which team should be concerned with McAulay’s penalty tendencies? The Bears know him better, as McAulay called two of their games this season – the Week 4 beatdown of the Seahawks, and the Week 16 squeaker over the Lions. Both contests were pretty evenly called, but very busy from a flag perspective. The 37-6 domination over the Seahawks saw 17 total penalties – eight for Chicago (the home team, as they will be here), and nine for the visitors from the Northwest. The 26-21 win over the Lions at Ford Field had 27 total called penalties and only 12 for the visitor. He called no Saints games in 2006.

McAulay calls a lot of penalties, but he doesn’t have any grievous diversions from the norm. Both teams will want to be in their best behavior, but unlike out next contestant, there aren’t any numbers that take you aback.

New England at Indianapolis: Bill Carollo

One thing that we’ve noticed at Football Outsiders in the four years we’ve tracked penalties is the amazing deviation from crew to crew when it comes to certain calls. In 2006, no referee personified that better than Bill Carollo. A side judge since 1989, he was promoted to the position of referee in 1996. Carollo has participated in two Super Bowls, and this will be his sixth conference championship.

Now, as to his most interesting number – Carollo called the fourth-fewest penalties (186) for the fourth-fewest yards (1,273), and his 6.8 yards per penalty average was – you guessed it – fourth. While he called his fair share of false starts (43), he almost never called offensive holding. Larry Nemmers and Ed Hochuli tied for the most holds called in 2006 with 42, and the league average was 33.5 per crew. How many did Carollo’s crew call? A stunning 11 – all season – and three were against the New York Giants in Week 2.

Carollo called no Patriots games in 2006, but he did preside over the Week 12 45-21 Indy win over the Eagles at the RCA Dome. In that game, he called a total of four penalties, all against the home team. Certainly, he’s as hands-off as McAulay is proactive.

Who benefits from this? The Patriots were called for ten more holds than the Colts (21-11). What about the illegal contact that the Colts will no doubt be conscious of? Carollo called that 10 times, tied with Gene Steratore’s crew for second-most in the NFL. New England’s been called for seven of those infamous infractions, with Indy having only three. But Carollo called defensive pass interference only five times, lowest of any referee. Most refs who call DPI a lot don't call much illegal contact, and vice versa, because the rules separating the two are confusing.

The Colts had 23 false starts in 2006, five more than New England, while Indianapolis was flagged for more than twice as many defensive offsides calls - 11-5. In this game, it's possible that New England can counter the Colts' tendency to fly off the line at (or near) the snap with a few extracurricular bear hugs.

Two crews with very different ways of calling their games will send their head men to preside over all-star officiating teams in the AFC and NFC Championship games this Sunday. So while you’re watching Reggie Bush try to solve Brian Urlacher, or perhaps the conclusion of Peyton Manning’s exhaustive battle with his ultimate postseason nemesis, remember that those guys wearing the neutral stripes can be decisive difference-makers.

Post by Doug Farrar

One of the big stories this weekend is whether the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots can hide their weaknesses at cornerback. On the Saints, one corner (Fred Thomas) has given up big plays far more often than the other two. On the Patriots, one corner (Asante Samuel) is much better this season than the other two.

Let's go through data from the Football Outsiders game charting project to see what we can learn about who each cornerback might end up covering during the game. We've assigned each offense with #1 WR and #2 WR for each week, with other WR into a third category and TE as a fourth category.

Standard caveats apply: Charting off of television camera angles is bound to have mistakes. This information is incomplete, because we aren't finished with every game yet. Designations of "#1 WR" and "#2 WR" are somewhat arbitrary, and it would be better to mark "flanker" and "split end" except that we have no record of which players were on which side on every play. "Other WR" doesn't necessarily designate slot receiver, since sometimes the top guy will move to the slot in a three-wide.

Anyway, none of this means we can't learn something, so let's see what we find when we look at which defenders cover which receivers the most often for each team.

Chicago Bears

vs. #1 WR

• 33-C.Tillman 48%
• 31-N.Vasher 18%
• 55-L.Briggs 6%
• 24-R.Manning 5%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 5%
• Other 17%

vs. #2 WR

• 33-C.Tillman 24%
• 31-N.Vasher 19%
• 24-R.Manning 15%
• 55-L.Briggs 7%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 7%
• 54-B.Urlacher 5%
• 38-D.Manning 5%
• Other 19%

What you see here are three things.

In the Bears' Tampa-2 defense, Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher aren't usually assigned to specific receivers. But it doesn't matter whether the quarterback is throwing to one starter or the other -- he's going after Tillman more often.

Because of the Tampa-2, the Bears have a higher than normal percentage of passes listed as Uncovered or Hole in Zone.

It's not man coverage specifically, but Lance Briggs probably ends up defending starting wide receivers more than any linebacker in the league.

vs. Other WR

• 24-R.Manning 29%
• 33-C.Tillman 14%
• 31-N.Vasher 14%
• 55-L.Briggs 13%
• Uncovered/Hole 10%
• Other 20%

This responsibility is less specific on some teams (as you'll see when I do the Patriots tomorrow) but on the Bears, that third corner is most often on that third guy. And there's Briggs again.

vs. TE

• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 16%
• 55-L.Briggs 15%
• 54-B.Urlacher 13%
• 46-C.Harris 12%
• 92-H.Hillenmeyer 10%
• 33-C.Tillman 6%
• 31-N.Vasher 6%
• 35-To.Johnson 6%
• Other 17%

The high Uncovered/Hole in Zone number for covering tight ends is very indicative of the Tampa-2.

New Orleans Saints

vs. #1 WR

• 22-F.Thomas 35%
• 21-J.Craft 19%
• 34-M.McKenzie 18%
• 29-J.Bullocks 8%
• 23-O.Stoutmire 5%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 1%
• Other 14%

Burn, baby, burn. Disco inferno!

vs. #2 WR

• 34-M.McKenzie 26%
• 22-F.Thomas 25%
• 21-J.Craft 15%
• 58-S.Shanle 7%
• 29-J.Bullocks 7%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 8%
• 55-S.Fujita 5%
• Other 8%

The question here is: Is Fred Thomas covering the top receiver more often than McKenzie? Or do opposing quarterbacks just throw to the top receiver more often than he's covered by Thomas. Remember, we can't chart a pass with Thomas covering the #1 WR unless the pass is thrown to the #1 WR. Last week, we talked about the difference between Thomas's performance before and after midseason. Now, look at the difference in where opposing quarterbacks threw the ball:

Weeks 1-8: Thomas covered 28% of charted passes to #1 WR, 32% of passes to #2 WR.
Weeks 9-16: Thomas covered 44% of charted passes to #1 WR, 17% of passes to #2 WR.

And remember, Thomas missed a couple of games in the second half of the season due to injury (Weeks 10 and 12) so when he was in the lineup, those percentages were actually higher.

vs. Other WR

• 22-F.Thomas 32%
• 21-J.Craft 20%
• 34-M.McKenzie 18%
• 29-J.Bullocks 8%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 4%
• Other 18%

Yep, he's number one here too.

vs. TE

• 41-R.Harper 16%
• 55-S.Fujita 13%
• 21-J.Craft 11%
• Uncovered/Hole in Zone 11%
• 34-M.McKenzie 8%
• 58-S.Shanle 8%
• 23-O.Stoutmire 8%
• 29-J.Bullocks 7%
• 53-M.Simoneau 7%
• 22-F.Thomas 5%
• Other 7%

Among the myriad of incredible facts about the 2006 New Orleans Saints is this: They got a draft steal in strong safety Roman Harper, who was excellent in pass coverage early, yet they continued to play well even though he was lost for the year after five games. Harper was used so often in pass coverage that he comes out as the most common defender assigned to the tight end -- even though he played just one-third of the season.

Summarizing all this: On each of these teams, quarterbacks prefer to go after one cornerback over the others. But on Chicago, the picked-on cornerback was just as good as the other cornerback this year. That's not true in New Orleans. Advantage: Bears.

Then again, this is all dwarfed by the fact that New Orleans has the better quarterback by leaps and bounds. Advantage: Saints.

We'll do the Patriots and Colts tomorrow.

Post by Aaron Schatz

We all know that the Colts defense has turned things around so dramatically in the playoffs. But I'm not sure people understand what a historical outlier the Colts would be if they actually beat the Patriots this Sunday and make Super Bowl XLI. They would have the worst regular season defense to ever make the Super Bowl -- certainly since 1978, the year the NFL expanded to a 16-game season and liberalized passing rules to increase offense. The Saints would also end up as one of the worst defenses to ever make the Super Bowl, although not quite to same degree.

Check out where the 2006 Colts and Saints stand in the following categories. Teams that actually won the Super Bowl are in italics.

Most regular season points allowed by conference champion (since 1978):

• 2006 Colts, 360
• 1983 Raiders, 338
• 1983 Redskins, 332
• 1988 Bengals, 329
• 1995 Steelers, 327
• 1986 Broncos, 327
• 1999 Titans, 324
• 2006 Saints, 322
• 1991 Bills, 318

Most regular season rushing yards per carry allowed for conference champion (since 1978):

• 2006 Colts, 5.3
• 2006 Saints, 4.9
• 1997 Broncos, 4.7
• 1984 Dolphins, 4.7
• 1982 Dolphins, 4.4
• 1986 Broncos, 4.4
• 1987 Broncos, 4.4
• 2004 Eagles, 4.3
• 2001 Patriots, 4.3

Highest completion percentage allowed during regular season by conference champion (since 1978):

• 2006 Colts, 64.3%
• 1994 Chargers, 62.9%
• 2004 Eagles, 60.7%
• 2002 Raiders, 60.7%
• 1993 Cowboys, 60.2%
• 1995 Steelers, 59.1%
• 1992 Bills, 58.7%
• 2004 Patriots, 58.6%
• 2001 Rams, 58.0%
• 2005 Seahawks, 58.0%

The Saints allowed a 56.3% completion percentage this season, so in this category, they would actually end up roughly average among conference champions.

Fewest regular season interceptions by conference champion (since 1978):

• 2006 Saints, 11
• 1982 Redskins, 11 (strike year)
• 1990 Giants, 13
• 1993 Cowboys, 14
• 2005 Steelers, 15
• 2006 Colts, 15
• 2005 Seahawks, 16
• 2003 Panthers, 16
• 1999 Titans, 16
• 1986 Broncos, 18

In the Colts' defense, they faced only 414 pass attempts all year because they were so easy to run on, so their interception per pass attempt rate isn't quite so awful.

How about our advanced Football Outsiders stats?

Worst regular season defensive DVOA by conference champion (since 1997):

• 2006 Colts, 11.3%
• 2006 Saints, 3.6%
• 1998 Broncos, 0.4%
• 2004 Eagles, -2.2%
• 2005 Seahawks, -3.5%
• 1999 Titans, -4.6%
• 2001 Patriots, -6.3%
• 2002 Raiders, -6.4%

And finally, here's an important stat that measures both points scored and allowed, Pythagorean wins. For those unfamiliar, this takes points scored and allowed and projects an estimate of wins over a 16-game season. The team with the most Pythagorean wins has won the Super Bowl more often than the team with the most actual wins, although the team with the most Pythagorean wins this year is now out of the playoffs (Ravens, 12.7):

• 1979 Rams, 8.4
• 2003 Panthers, 8.6
• 1986 Broncos, 9.4
• 2006 Colts, 9.6
• 1980 Raiders, 9.6
• 1999 Titans, 9.8
• 1995 Steelers, 10.0
• 1994 Chargers, 10.0
• 1985 Patriots, 10.1
• 1988 49ers, 10.1
• 2006 Saints, 10.3

Just because something has never been done before doesn't mean that it can't be done in the future. But no team has ever made it to the Super Bowl with a defense this bad, much less won the thing. The Saints are a different issue, because their defense wasn't as bad as the Colts during the season, and the Bears' own defense has been having problems since the beginning of December. But as great as the Colts' defense has been over the last two weeks, I have yet to hear a reasonable explanation as to why those two games are a better indicator than the 16 games that came before.

Postscript: I should note that the same issue exists with Peyton Manning. There's no reason to believe that his poor performance in the last two games is a better indicator of how he'll play next week than his fabulous performance in the first 16 games.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Here's what the FO staff was talking about during the games on Saturday and Sunday:

"Man, this is making me nostalgic for the days before Jamal Lewis got all used up, when he was really good and I didn't make fun of him all the time."

"Does Indy ever go max protect? Today might be a good day for it."

"When did Marty Schottenheimer become head coach of the Ravens? The Baltimore offense is exhibiting every kind of conservative look that makes people criticize Martyball. Sitting on the ball at the end of the half was just one of many examples."

"Peyton Manning has discovered mobility."

"I've watched 95% of the Colts games for the past four years, and I can't remember seeing a flea flicker."

"Well, for a second there, I thought Brian Billick had his balls reattached, but he changed his mind and punted."

"The only question about the Colts defense playing well is, if they could play like this, WHY DIDN'T THEY FOR THE ENTIRE REGULAR SEASON?"

"This is the best tackling, hardest hitting Colts defense I've seen this year. I think they've found their ... SWAGGER."

"Hmmm...a moronic holding call by Bill Leavy's crew early in the fourth quarter that pretty much killed a huge drive? In the postseason? I've never seen THAT before!"

"This game reminds me of last year's Colts-Steelers playoff game. The underdog comes in, pretty much controls the game, and pulls out the win. And you know the common link? Dan Dierdorf. That's right, if you're an underdog playoff team playing in the AFC Divisional game, you might want to that request Dierdorf does the game."

"Reggie Bush. I mean, wow. He's not supposed to be able to do that in the NFL."

"This is a great game between two very good teams."

"Can anyone think of a player who's changed his style as dramatically as Deuce McAllister? He's a totally different back. Maybe someone should tear DeShaun Foster's ACL."

"Great response by the Saints defense after the Reggie Bush turnover. Just when you think everyone in the stadium was probably thinking, 'oh,that's right, we're the Saints' they come up with a stop"

"It came down to that second-and-1. The Eagles should have been able to push that in for a touchdown, and they couldn't. The Saints are just an amazing story. I think they're going to the Super Bowl."

"Andy Reid made a big mistake punting. The defense was tired. They had a better chance of making that fourth-and-15 than they did of keeping the Saints from a first down AND then scoring in the final 40 seconds or whatever would be left after that."

"As long as the Seahawks take advantage of every possible Bears mistake, they have a chance."

"In my head, I'm hearing Stu Nahan say, 'I’ve got to give that round to Balboa.' The third quarter has been Seattle's.

"Every time the Seahawks get a good run from Alexander, they go back to him and get stuffed. I'd call that a tendency, Mr. Holmgren!"

"Hell of a kick by Robbie Gould."

"Did the Chargers stop blitzing on that touchdown drive at the end of the half? They couldn't get any pressure, and it seemed like their pass rush was a lot less diverse and creative than the rest of the half."

Why did Marty go for it on fourth-and-11 from the 30? I believe in going for it on fourth but 11? You spent a third round pick on Nate Kaeding and don't feel you can trust him from 48 yards?

"The Chargers receivers pretty much suck today."

"Tom Brady is awful today. Just terrible. He threw the second INT off his back foot, and he just missed a wide open Ben Watson. He's getting time to throw and he just looks awful."

"Clutch interception by Brady."

"Yep. Belichick is a genius for calling the pick-and-fumble on 4th-and-5. And Schottenheimer's a choke artist for not anticipating it"

"This game is amazing. It really feels like the Chargers have annihilated the Patriots, yet as I write this it's a two-point conversion away from being tied."

"What can you say about Stephen Gostkowski? He's money in the playoffs."

Read more at FootballOutsiders.com. 

post by Mike Tanier

Before this weekend's playoff games, let's take one more look at the (incomplete) Football Outsiders game charting data. Again: Data incomplete, cleaning not finished, do not take as gospel, etc.

One thing we ask people to mark down is the number of pass rushers and blockers on any pass play (including scrambles). We learned last year that teams send an extra pass rusher so often than five doesn't really count as a blitz anymore. Six or more is when the defense is giving up on coverage to get to the quarterback.

Here's the kooky thing: the teams we have listed as blitzing the most this year are completely different from the teams we have listed as blitzing the most in 2005. Perhaps I'm measuring something differently, or this is an issue with the incomplete data. But last year's top blitzing teams were Denver, New England, and Philadelphia. Based on the data I have here, those defenses rank 10th, 9th, and 22nd this year, respectively. Here's where the eight remaining teams all stand, based on the percentage of pass plays (scrambles or passes) where the defense sent six or more pass rushers:

• 9. Philadelphia (11%)
• 11. Baltimore (11%)
• 15. Chicago (10%)
• 22. New England (7%)
• 24. New Orleans (6%)
• 25. Seattle (6%)
• 27. San Diego (5%)
• 32. Indianapolis (3%)

The Colts were last in 2005 as well. Tony Dungy just doesn't blitz. We only counted three blitzes by the Colts in 2005, total. This year we've got 10 in our incomplete data, which means Indy's blitz rate more than tripled and the Colts are still last in the league.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Last week we looked at our game charting data for defensive backs from the wild card games. I figured it was a good idea to check out the top two seeds in each conference, since we left them out last week.

The data now consists of Weeks 1-15, and while there are some holes, we've tried to get as many games as possible involving the eight remaining playoff teams. Standard caveats, of course: this data is unofficial, compiled by volunteers, and it is hard to always see who was in coverage when using TV tape. Some definitions:

• Yards per pass: Simply yards per pass attempt with this defender listed as the main one in coverage.
• Stop rate: The percentage of plays with this player in coverage that fell short of 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third down.

All rankings are out of players with at least 30 charted passes.

Baltimore

I've written about this each time I've looked at the game charting data this year. While it isn't quite as extreme as it was early in the season, there's a colossal difference between Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister. Rolle's stop rate of 43% puts him among the 10 worst cornerbacks. He's also allowed 11.0 yards per pass. That's the highest of any cornerback in the league except one: Kevin Dockery, the Giants nickel back who I mistakenly referred to as a safety last week.

McAlister, on the other hand, has a stop rate of 62%, which ranks seventh among all cornerbacks (he's tied with Champ Bailey). He's allowed 7.1 yards per pass, which is about the league average. I'm guessing that McAlister has a high stop rate despite an unimpressive yards per pass because Baltimore opponents are often in third-and-long thanks to sacks and stuffed running plays. McAlister has stopped 18 of 24 charted passes on third down. Rolle has stopped 8 of 18.

As far as the other players, Ed Reed's numbers are actually really awful, a 29% stop rate and 14.2 yards per pass on 21 charted passes. Reed had the highest stop rate of any safety in 2005, so I don't know if this is just limited data, or our charters screwing up the identity of defenders on those passes down the middle, or Reed being used differently in coverage, or some combination of all three. Everyone pretty much agrees that Reed has played very well this year, and I think the safety and linebacker numbers from the charting project are shakier than the cornerback numbers, since corners are much more likely to be in obvious man coverage.

Chicago

The big difference here is not in the numbers but in the number of targeted passes. Charles Tillman has a better stop rate than Nathan Vasher, 61% to 56%, but he gives up slightly more yards per pass, 5.9 to 5.4. Both players are above average in both stats. But we have 88 charted passes with Tillman as the main defender, and only 48 with Vasher as the main defender. We've charted more passes at Tillman than any other defender in the league, and while you might think this is because some teams have incomplete data this year, Tillman was second behind Ike Taylor in 2005, and Vasher was way behind Tillman last year as well.

Ricky Manning comes out with a lower stop rate and more yards allowed per pass (46%, 7.7). Also, he's a ####.

Like I said, linebacker numbers aren't quite as trustworthy as cornerback numbers. But Lance Briggs has a 62% stop rate, second behind Zach Thomas, and allows 4.6 yards per pass, second behind Keith Bulluck. He was near the top in both categories last year too. Briggs is one of the top five linebackers in the number of passes charted with him as the primary defender.

New Orleans

OK, this one is really strange. When I first looked at charting data, Fred Thomas came out as one of the top guys in the league. Then he got injured, and when he came back he was getting super-toasted by everybody he tried to cover. Now his numbers are worse than those for both Mike McKenzie and the other cornerback in New Orleans, who I bet you can't even name.

Even weirder is the split between New Orleans before and after the bye week, which is roughly when Thomas was injured.

Weeks 1-6
Mike McKenzie: 25 charted psses, 36% stop rate, 10.2 yards per pass.
Fred Thomas: 39 charted passes, 67% stop rate, 3.3 yards per pass.
Other Guy: 21 charted passes, 48% stop rate, 6.3 yards per pass.

Weeks 8-15
Mike McKenzie: 30 charted passes, 77% stop rate, 4.8 yards per pass.
Fred Thomas: 36 charted passes, 33% stop rate, 14.9 yards per pass.
Other Guy: 30 charted passes, 77% stop rate, 4.8 yards per pass.

"Other Guy" is eight-year veteran Jason Craft. Yes, his numbers from Weeks 8-15, based on the data collected as of today, are the exact same as McKenzie, and both are far better than they were before the bye week, and Thomas is far, far worse. Honestly, I have no idea what the heck is going on here. Craft's charting numbers were horrific in 2005. In 2006, based on data so far, he's tied with Pac-Man Jones for the best stop rate among all cornerbacks (65% for the whole year).

San Diego

This one is pretty interesting, especially since the secondary was supposed to be the weakness of the Chargers. Drayton Florence has one of the best stop rates in the league, 63%, and Quentin Jammer's stop rate is just 47%. But they allow roughly the same yards per pass (6.1 for Florence, 6.5 for Jammer), because Florence allows double the yards after catch.

Nickel cornerback Antonio Cromartie also has a 63% stop rate. He's allowed 8.4 yards per pass, which doesn't look good until you see that the average pass we've charted against him is 20.3 yards in the air. That's the highest of any cornerback with at least 30 charted passes by a good THREE YARDS. (Fred Thomas, by the way, is second. He really has been super torch-o-licious over the second half of the year.)

Donnie Edwards, like Lance Briggs, is one of the top five linebackers in the number of passes charted with him as the primary defender.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Sean Payton will win Coach of the Year this season. There are other great candidates (Marty Schottenheimer, Andy Reid, Eric Mangini), but the award usually goes to the coach who brought his team from nowhere into contention. That description fits Payton to a "T."

But who was the NFL's worst coach this year? There's no clear winner (loser?) but a long list of candidates.

Art Shell would be an obvious choice. Shell made many mistakes this season: hiring his overmatched buddy as offensive coordinator, bungling the Jerry Porter situation, letting Randy Moss get away with murder, and so on. His most grievous error: the Raiders are no further along now than they were last year. It's one thing for a first-year coach to have a bad year, but quire another for him to show no signs of progress.

There are mitigating factors in Shell's case. First, there's the fact that a first-year head coach can only do so much. Then there's the Raiders front office, which is still lost in the 1970s. Finally, there was the brutal division schedule that offered the Raiders few cheesy wins. If they played in the NFC West, the Raiders might be 5-11: bad, but not punchline bad.

The Cardinals are in position to go 5-11 in the NFC West, and their head coach has had three years to install his system. Denny Green has done an awful job in Arizona, and he has flopped at a time when the team's ownership is spending money like crazy to shed the team's loser image. Green hasn't been able to field a competitive offensive line despite free agent acquisitions, draft picks, and staff changes. Look at what Payton has done with the Saints line this season and it's clear that there's no trick to fielding a competent line. Green just hasn't gotten it done. And he didn't earn any style points with that post-game tirade after the loss to the Bears.

The Cardinals were a fashionable playoff pick this year. So were the Redskins; some experts had them heading to the Super Bowl, and we're not just talking about Joe Theismann. It may be sacrilegious to suggest that Joe Gibbs was the worst coach in the league this season, but the Redskins were pretty terrible for a team with a high payroll and a coaching staff filled with living legends. Gibbs is supposed to be a master of finding and developing young players, but the Redskins haven't produced any surprise stars in the last three seasons (Chris Cooley and Ladell Betts were high draft choices, not surprises), and major talents like Sean Taylor and Carlos Rogers don't seem to be developing. Gibbs handled his quarterback situation poorly and seemed unwilling to step in and make changes when it was clear that the Redskins offense was in trouble at the start of camp. It was a lousy coaching effort, and only some of the blame can be pinned on owner Dan Snyder for assembling another all-name, no-game roster.

Gibbs' woes in Washington were overshadowed by Tom Coughlin's bellicose blundering in New York. Beware of sel####escribed disciplinarians. Real disciplinarians use tight organization and clear communication to enforce rules, but would-be drill sergeants like Coughlin just congratulate themselves for shouting the loudest. Most of the Giants tuned Coughlin out last year, but youngsters like Mathias Kiwanuka didn't know better and found themselves on the receiving end of Coughlin's public tantrums. Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey were right when they said that the Giants were outcoached in 2005 and 2006, but the team that executes cleanly and plays hard can overcome an inferior gameplan. Coughlin's Giants couldn't execute, and by the end of this season, none of them even wanted to execute, unless they had the chance to execute Coughlin.

Was Coughlin the worst coach of 2006? I think we can go lower. In my opinion, the worst coaches have two fatal flaws: 1) They are incapable of fixing their team's problems even after a few seasons and a commitment of resources, and 2) They are divisive and create a toxic atmosphere. Coughlin is divisive, but the Giants really haven't had one recurring problem during his tenure. Gibbs hasn't gotten the Redskins to turn the corner, but he creates a professional work environment for his players. Shell couldn't fix the offensive line and didn't exactly build unity by creating a double standard for Moss and Porter, but he's only been at the job one year.

Then there's Jim Mora. He keeps waiting for Michael Vick to mature. He keeps waiting for the run defense to fix itself. Mora and the Falcons invest money in defenders like Ed Hartwell and Lawyer Milloy and high draft picks on wide receivers, but the results are the same year-in and year-out. The Falcons are never terrible, and I might be easier on Mora if he had a reputation as a class act. But Mora is, by most accounts, a jerk. He's a poor communicator to his players who seems incapable of developing them past the "raw talent" level. And his recent "I wanna coach at the college level" wisecracks, spoken while the Falcons were still very alive in the playoff race, demonstrated just how clueless he is.

It's tough to pass on Coughlin and Green, but I believe that Mora was the worst coach in the NFL this year. His dad might have called Vick a coach killer, but Mora has done a pretty good job of hanging himself without Vick's help in the last two seasons. When firing season starts next week, Mora will probably be among the first to get the boot.

post by Mike Tanier

Israel Pikholz: The Pittsburgh Steelers broadcasters get all excited whenever Hines Ward scores or makes a first down, saying things like "No one smells the goal line like Hines" or "No one knows the sticks like Hines." How well does Hines really rank?  Is he particularly good at that particular skill or is this just local hype?

Aaron Schatz: This year, at least, the answer is local hype. I went and looked at every wide receiver and tight end this year, with a minimum of 40 passes for wide receivers and 20 for tight ends, to figure out who had the highest percentage of their catches/passes as first downs or touchdowns.

First of all, the league averages:

• 55% of tight end catches and 34% of all passes to tight ends turn into first downs or touchdowns.
• 67% of wide receiver catches and 38% of all passes to wide receivers turn into first downs or touchdowns.

Hines Ward this year has first downs or touchdowns on 67% of his catches and 40% of all passes. Basically average. Of course, these numbers are 2006 only, and Ward, when he was healthy, was having an off year -- mostly because his quarterback is having an off year.  In 2005, Ward had a first down or touchdown on 45% of catches and 75% of passes -- better, but still not the best in the league.

Ironically, while Ward is not at the top of the league this year, both Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington are. For example, here are the leaders in first downs per catch (including touchdowns):

• Devery Henderson, NO: 89%
• Reggie Wayne, IND: 87%
• Santonio Holmes, PIT: 84%
• Eddie Kennison, KC: 83%
• Donte' Stallworth, PHI: 82%
• Nate Washington, PIT: 81%
• Bryant Johnson, ARI: 81%

Bryant Johnson has really had a good year after being god awful his first three seasons.

Now of course, not all passes are caught by the receiver. Here are the leaders in first downs per intended pass:

• Patrick Crayton, DAL: 59%
• Henderson, NO: 58%
• Wayne, IND: 53%
• Eric Parker, SD: 52%
• D.J. Hackett, SEA: 50%
• Marvin Harrison, IND: 50%

Crayton, Henderson, and Hackett are playing very well but they are just over the 40 pass minimum, so Wayne, Harrison, and Eric "The Most Underappreciated Wide Receiver in Football" Parker are the real leaders here. Eric Parker is a catch machine. People don't realize how good he is because he never catches a touchdown, but he never catches a touchdown because San Diego has two of the best red zone weapons in the league, LT and Antonio Gates.

Most of the names at the bottom of the league make sense, except one. Here are the worst players in first downs per catch:

• Peerless Price, BUF: 37%
• Dennis Northcutt, CLE: 40%
• Wes Welker, MIA: 47%
• Drew Carter, CAR: 48%
• Reggie "Dance Machine" Williams, JAC: 50%

A lot of people think of Wes Welker as a possession guy because he comes in on third downs and he's, um, suntan challenged. He's definitely Joey Harrington's checkdown target on first and second downs, but on third downs he's a big-play speed demon.

The worst players in first downs per intended pass:

• Northcutt, CLE: 19%
• Price, BUF: 23%
• Chris Chambers, MIA: 25%
• Brandon Lloyd, WAS: 25%
• Michael Jenkins, ATL: 26%
• Carter, CAR: 26%

Chris Chambers is a talented athlete and an incredibly overrated wide receiver. Bill Barnwell wrote about this a couple weeks ago.

As long as I'm running the numbers, I might as well hit the tight ends.  Here are your leaders in first down per catch:

• Desmond Clark, CHI: 77%
• Tony Gonzalez, KC: 75%
• Dan Campbell, DET: 74%
• Dallas Clark, IND: 73%
• Alge Crumpler, ATL: 71%
• Courtney Anderson, OAK: 71%
• Tony Scheffler, DEN: 70%

It's nice that Tony Scheffler gets to the sticks when he catches the ball, since he doesn't catch the ball very often. He's caught just 38% of intended passes this year, which is just abysmal for a tight end.

The leaders in first downs per intended pass:

• Gonzalez, KC: 54%
• Campbell, DET: 50%
• Bryan Fletcher, IND: 45%
• Daniel Wilcox, BAL: 44%
• Clark, CHI: 44%
• Antonio Gates, SD: 42%
• Owen Daniels, HOU: 42%

And your bottom of the barrel tight ends.  First, first downs per catch:

• Anthony Becht, TB: 27%
• Steve Heiden, CLE: 30%
• Adam Bergen, ARI: 33%
• Anthony Fasano, DAL: 33%
• Alex Smith is not a quarterback, TB: 35%

There is a big gap between those five and the rest of the tight ends, who are all above 44%.  The worst tight ends in first downs per intended pass:

• Jerramy Stevens should shut up, SEA: 18%
• Becht, TB: 20%
• Fasano, DAL: 20%
• Bergen, ARI: 21%
• The lost rookie season of Vernon Davis, SF: 21%
• Smith, TB: 22%

Post by Aaron Schatz

In a few weeks, I'll be selecting the Too Deep Zone All Rookie Team. With the help of Michael David Smith and some of the other Football Outsiders, I select an entire team of rookies to honor, right down to the special teams gunners. I also pick a Rookie of the Year, which is never an easy task. This year, it's really difficult.

I drew up my first draft of the All Rookie Team about a month ago. Back then, the ROY question was easy: Marques Colston was the odds-on favorite for the award. But after a remarkable three-game stretch in which he caught 27 passes (19 of them for first downs or touchdowns), Colston missed three games with an injury. During his time with the pit crew, lots of other competitors gained ground.

Just after Colston got hurt, Joseph Addai had his monster 171-yard, four-touchdown Monday night game. If Addai followed that performance up with a few other great games, he would be the clear favorite ROY candidate. But he has rushed for just 56 and 22 yards in his last two games and hasn't done much as a receiver lately. Maurice Jones-Drew and Laurence Maroney have similar resumes to Addai: a few great games, value as a runner, receiver, and return man (Addai isn't a return man but has more offensive yards than the others), and some highlight-reel plays to capture the imagination. Reggie Bush is in the same category but hasn't been quite as good. If there are three or four similar players vying for an award, it may be a sign that none of them has distinguished himself enough to earn the award. But I haven't ruled any of them out.

Vince Young has leapt into the spotlight in the last few weeks. He has been impressive as a runner and (to a lesser extent) a passer during the Titans' four-game winning streak. But I'm wary of anoint a quarterback as the ROY because he "won" or got hot at the right time. Young's DPAR – 7.9 as a passer, 1.7 as a rusher – is good for a rookie but not overwhelming.

DPAR, of course, is Football Outsiders' top tool for evaluating players. Addai's DPAR is a whopping 33.2 as a runner, far outstripping Jones-Drew (10.7) or Maroney (2.5). Addai has them beat as a receiver, too, and kick return yardage can't really make up the difference. Colston's 25.9 DPAR is within striking distance of Addai. But I'm not obligated to choose the rookie DPAR champion as ROY. Other factors come into play, like the strength of the rookie's supporting cast. After watching Edgerrin James flop in Arizona, I'm convinced that it's really easy to run the ball in the Colts offense. That's not a knock on Addai, but if he continues to slip in the next few weeks, it'll be taken into account.

Why does the ROY have to be a "skill position" player? A month ago, before Addai's big game, I had Jets' center Nick Mangold penciled in as the runner-up to Colston. I have film evidence that Mangold has had a great season, plus lots of press clippings. The FO stats say that the Jets line has been playing relatively well, and their playoff run has been a pleasant surprise. If there were no high-profile candidates at quarterback, receiver, or running back, I would tap Mangold. At this point, I don't want to pick a lineman just to be cool. (Hey, look how much smarter than everyone else I am for picking this guy!) Do you really like Mangold better than Colston, Young, or Addai? I don't, but if that trio plays poorly over the next two weeks, Mangold may still get the nod.

The same goes for defensive players. Last year, I gave serious consideration to DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Lofa Tutupu, and Odell Thurman as ROY candidates. But this year's rookie defensive class isn't as impressive as last year's. DeMeco Ryans of the Texans has Defensive Rookie of the Year all but locked up. His raw totals: 105 solo tackles, 3.5 sacks, 12 tackles for a loss, an interception, six passes defensed – blow away the competition. Dig deeper, and you discover that Ryans isn't just making clean-up tackles. But again, does he have something that the offensive stars don't? If he does, I can't find it.

Late Monday night, a final contender entered the field: Devin Hester. Check out the Bears special teams DVOA: a whopping 14.8 on punt returns, and that doesn't count Hester's missed field goal return. That may not compare to Addai or Colston's DPAR, but the impact of Hester's returns has been huge. Hester doesn't contribute much to the Bears defense, and I haven't seen him on offense yet, though I have a feeling I will. He's on the list.

Clearly, the ROY race is going right down to the wire. The list goes live just before Week 17, so Addai, Colston, Hester, Young, and the dark horses have two more weeks to (further) impress me. I have a feeling that I will be giving a lot of "runner-up" and "honorable mention" notices this year.

post by Mike Tanier

Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"The Jets-Texans announcers must be the CBS "R"-Team. I am pretty sure the next broadcast team they'd send out would be Jeff Probst and the clock from 60 Minutes".

"Michael Vick may not be able to pass, and may be a 'coach killer,' but boy does he have moves."

"Baltimore's second touchdown drive was something Bronko Nagurski would have enjoyed: 8 plays, 47 yards, and six of the plays were essentially runs up the middle."

"Drew Brees just threw a 50-yard, half-ending Hail Mary TD. With triple coverage, the Falcons made a lame attempt at batting down the ball. The primary coverage was DeAngelo Hall, who was in such poor body position he wasn’t able to do any defending. The Falcons