I was talking to a friend the other day about the Giants and he brought up the questionable ratings given to Sinorice Moss in a popular video game franchise whose namesake is a particular commentator. I noted, rather astutely, that Moss should have been given a Hiding rating, since he didn't bother to show up for his first season in New York. While Jared Lorenzen actually disappeared for his entire rookie campaign on the Giants practice squad, the second-rounder was around but failed to make a difference on the Giants season. Some of the blame can be put on Moss' strained quadriceps, but Big Blue could have sorely used Moss to stretch out opposing defenses and create space for Jeremy Shockey and Plaxico Burress to work underneath.

A couple of days later, I was talking to another friend (yes, I'm quite popular) about Chad Jackson, the Patriots' second round pick. I retold the Moss story and remarked that Jackson should have also received a Hiding rating -- the Patriots were signing street free agents and Reche Caldwell was their number one wideout most of the year and Jackson still didn't get any burn! "Must have been a bad crop of wide receivers", my friend remarked. That got me to thinking -- was it a bad crop? Historically bad, or just unlucky bad? Or, alternately, do fans just expect too much of rookie wide receivers? The easiest way to find out is to take a look back at wide receivers

I crunched the numbers on the last ten years of wide receivers. Since I was talking about Moss and Jackson, I looked at second-round picks initially, but I spread it out to third and fourth-rounders to try and gain a broader sense of performance. I didn't include first-rounders because more is naturally expected of them.

Compared to other classes, the second, third, and fourth-rounders of 2006 were atrocious. The seventeen wide receivers selected averaged fewer than nine catches and 117 yards each for the season; the average year's average receiver catches fifteen balls and gains over 200 yards. The only other group that was in 2006's territory was even worse: the "class" of 1997.

1997's first round wide receiver crop may go down as one of the all-time worst hauls from a position in a draft, ever. Although it's outside the boundaries of our study, it's worth pointing out that this round saw Ike Hilliard, Yatil Green, Reidel Anthony, and Rae Carruth come off the board. It's not a good sign when your career consists almost solely of three entirely torn ACLs and you are still better off than someone else in your pool. The Florida pair of Hilliard and Anthony did not live up to their relative expectations. As you will see, their performance still blew away the receivers to come.

While 1996 saw Amani Toomer, Muhsin Muhammad, and Bobby Engram go in the second round, and 1998 gave out useful parts like Germane Crowell, Mickael Ricks and Jerome Pathon, 1997's second round offered no redeeming value whatsoever. Kevin Lockett, a college star at Kansas State, wasn't an NFL-caliber receiver. The fact that he lasted seven years in the NFL makes him the star of the group. Will Blackwell, drafted by the usually-reliable Steelers, made Troy Edwards' career in the black and gold look good. The third member of the class was Joey Kent, who had all of thirteen career NFL catches. Hooray.

The third round saw only one wide receiver get drafted: Dedric Ward, who went to the Jets. Ward was actually a useful receiver for a single season, which probably makes him the second-most valuable receiver of the entire group, after Hilliard, until you take a look at the fourth round.

The fourth round, well, it was surprising. It can bring good players into the league -- '96's fourth round brought Charlie Jones into the league, while '98 saw Tim Dwight, Donald Hayes, and Az-Zahir Hakim into pro football. These guys don't generally get much playing time, as fourth-rounders only average eight catches per player their rookie year (that is, if they even make it at all). Even so, '97's performance was below average; it's receivers only caught five passes each. Those receivers? A mix of good and bad. Macey Brooks didn't play until his third season, and was done in the league after his fourth. Keith Poole was developing into a solid receiver with 42 catches in his third year, but he was out of the league by 2002. Albert Connell also had a big third year, and saw himself joining Poole on the unemployment line in '02.

On the other hand, Marcus Robinson's enjoyed a solid professional career, with a big season his sophomore year and a few good weeks in 2003. He'll collect a pension. The other guy to go in Round 4? Derrick Mason, who did nothing until the fourth year of his career but hasn't let up since. Mason had 47 catches through his first three years.

After 1997's season finished, this group of receivers would have been hailed as an awful, awful crop of talent. Carruth had 45 catches, Anthony 33, and after that, Ward had 18 That's abysmal, even for a set of rookies. Furthermore, the guys who had the best NFL careers, Mason, Hilliard (who was injured and only played two games his rookie year) and Robinson, all didn't produce their rookie year. It brings up another question to look at: are the guys having big rookie seasons the ones who develop into future stars?

Going round-by-round, here are the biggest performances and what they boded for the future, as well as the biggest stars and how they did their rookie campaigns:

Second Round: Anquan Boldin's rookie-record 101 catches lap the field; Kevin Johnson's 66 are a runner-up, and he had the benefit of being the only threat on an expansion team that was always losing. Pathon's 58 catches are third, Chris Chambers' 48 fourth, and Antwaan Randle El and Keary Colbert are tied for fifth with 47.

That's an uneven group of receivers. Boldin's a stud. Johnson had a couple more big years but fell out of favor in Cleveland and his career never recovered; he's out of football. Pathon was perpetually expected to break out and never did. Chambers is perceived, at least, as a stud, while his performance has yet to match up. Randle El is yet to match his rookie numbers, and Colbert's lost his spot and on his way out in Carolina. Two (one for Boldin and a half each for Chambers and Randle El) isn't really a strong prediction rate.

The biggest stars from the timeframe that went in the second round would probably be Boldin, Amani Toomer, Chad Johnson, Deion Branch, and Muhsin Muhammad. Toomer had one catch his rookie year; Johnson, Branch, and Muhammad were all around or above the league average for second round wide receivers, but none of them stood out as future stars the way that Boldin did.

Third Round: The best year belongs to Darrell Jackson, whose 53 catches were 16 more than second-place Stepfret Williams. That's right -- the guy whose poster Patrick Crayton had on his wall. Number three is Terrell Owens. Fourth in performance their rookie year was Marvin Minnis, and fifth was friend of the law Chris Henry. Nate Burleson and Laveranues Coles also make appearances in the Top 10.

Maybe Williams did nothing, and Minnis suffered multiple injuries that forced him out of football. Jackson and Owens have had excellent careers, and Burleson, Henry, and Coles aren't doing poorly for themselves either. Stats seem to be a slightly better predictor for this round.

A top five based on career value would include Owens, Jackson, Coles, Steve Smith (10 catches his rookie year), and Hines Ward (15). A better group than the second-rounders, certainly.

Fourth Round: Again, someone steps out from the pack; it's the aforementioned Charlie Jones, who caught 41 passes for the '96 Chargers. He had a similar year in '98, but was out of football after '99. This group's top five finally sees some 2006 guys show up, with Demetrius Williams second in catches with 22, and Brandon Marshall fifth. Hakim is fourth, and Titans receiver Roydell Williams third. The jury is still out on three of these guys; Hakim benefited from being in the right place at the right time, and hasn't done much since he left said spot.

The best fourth rounders from the time period don't compare to the other rounds. Mason stands out, and there are plenty of guys who have had varying degrees of success, but pick four from Robinson, Hakim, Ernest Wilford, Brandon Lloyd, Jerricho Cotchery, Tim Dwight, Hayes, Justin McCareins, and Brandon Stokley and you'll be picking four guys who haven't really developed into anything beyond solid complementary receivers.

So, then, is there hope for the 2006 crop? I'd say so. It's not unprecedented for guys like Moss or Jackson to take big leaps forward as they learn more of the playbook and get more NFL game time in their sophomore season. The land of guys with five-catch rookie seasons, though, is littered with a lot more failures than the stratospheric heights reached by Boldin and Darrell Jackson. If you're a Giants fan (or administrator), hope Moss will get better, but don't depend on it; in the Patriots' case, hope that Bill Belichick's faith in Florida Gators works out slightly better than his previous obsession with guys from LSU.

post by Bill Barnwell

It's Christmas Eve here at Rundown headquarters, otherwise known as my home office. The tree is up, the presents are out. I just felt a surge of pride as I snuck a 16-inch bicycle with training wheels under the tree for my four-year old. There's no fire in the hearth, but there will be tomorrow.

And Rundown? It's partially written, but most of it will be hammered out on Tuesday morning when all the results are in and the playoff scenarios are clear. Santa gave me a nice present by allowing the Chargers to come back against the Seahawks. The win clarified the AFC playoff race so that I can start planning ahead for Too Deep Zone articles. The Colts run defense comes in Week 1. The Chargers-Ravens-Bears fullbacks piece in Week 2. Perfect. Thank you, Santa.

And what about tonight? No writing for me after I knock this little blog out. My entertainment options include It's a Wonderful Life, which I love, and carols by the tree with my wife, which of course is wonderful. Oh, and Bengals-Broncos. I taped the game. As you might imagine, Christmas Eve football is tough for a family man. I watched Saints-Giants and Ravens-Steelers early on Sunday, but the weather was clear and warm on the East Coast, and I wanted to walk my son around town to see the Christmas lights. So I taped the late game. By the time we returned from our little tour, the score was 24-17 Broncos in a winter not-quite-wonderland in Denver. I watched the improbable finish, but I need to know more about the game. The Broncos and Bengals are still in the playoff hunt, and they may figure prominently in next week's Rundown.

But still, it's Christmas Eve, the most beautiful night of the year. I shouldn't be watching taped games. I shouldn't even be blogging. The NFL has already carved out a portion of my Christmas by scheduling Eagles-Cowboys for tomorrow. I need to devote tonight to my family, and my faith, and myself.

I'm getting a beer, or maybe a chocolate milk, and I am going to sit by the tree. Until my wife falls asleep, anyway. And then, midnight mass.

Or, more likely, Broncos-Bengals.

post by Mike Tanier

Mactbone: My impression is that Rex Grossman performs well when the team is up and plays poorly when the Bears are losing. I'm curious if his DVOA/DPAR is higher when the Bears are already up by 7/14 and lower when they're down 7/14 points. Of course, he could just play well when he has a short field and poorly when he actually has to put a drive together. Just trying to get a handle on the reason the Bears will win or lose in the playoffs.

Aaron Schatz: Thanks for the excellent question, Mactbone. It turns out that you are absolutely correct. When I measure scoring gap, I generally use 8 points as the guideline, since that's the maximum score you can get on just one drive. Here are Grossman's stats when the Bears are up by 9+ points, losing by 9+ points, or within 8 points either way.

Lose >8: -17.0 DPAR, -70.7% DVOA, 4.3 ypa, 4 INT
Within 8: 1.8 DPAR, -10.6% DVOA, 5.9 ypa, 7 INT
Win >8: 39.3 DPAR, 82.2% DVOA, 9.4 ypa, 0 INT

Wow, that would concern me if I was a Bears fan. Evil Rex seems to come out whenever the Bears are losing, and they're more likely to fall behind a good team they'll meet in the playoffs than they are to fall behind some team like Detroit.

How does this compare to other quarterbacks? I ran two other random guys with somewhat similar total value this year:

Here's Tom Brady:

Lose >8: 10.2 DPAR, 22.4% DVOA, 5.5 ypa, 0 INT
Within 8: 15.4 DPAR, 5.0% DVOA, 6.5 ypa, 8 INT
Win >8: 18.5 DPAR, 36.3% DVOA, 6.1 ypa, 1 INT

Brady seems to play looser in close games -- more yards, more turnovers -- but better overall when he either is coming back from behind or has a nice lead. Here's Steve McNair:

Lose >8: -0.2 DPAR, -14.0% DVOA, 6.5 ypa, 3 INT
Within 8: 11.8 DPAR, 2.0% DVOA, 5.7 ypa, 5 INT
Win >8: 5.0 DPAR, 2.8% DVOA, 5.0 ypa, 1 INT

I have no idea if this is actually a real trend that represents the Chicago offensive style, or Grossman himself, or if it is just random chance. One of the projects I hope to do for next year's book is a study of which "splits" represent actual skills and which are basically just random from year to year.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"Buffalo is using a really soft front against the Colts. They are only keeping six in the box. I want someone to create a montage of Edgerrin James watching this while 'Memories' plays in the background."

"It's amazing how different San Diego's defense is without Shawne ('I can't find the bottle') Merriman in the lineup. They can bring no real consistent pressure, and Carson Palmer is shredding them to bits."

"Is my scoreboard messed up? Tennessee's put 26 points on Baltimore in the first half?"

"Somebody forgot to tell Travis Henry the Ravens' run defense is good. He's running all over them in the first half."

"#### Enberg and Randy Cross are going on and on about how smart Tony Dungy is because he doesn't care how big a player on his defense is, he just cares if he can play. Uh, guys, did you notice how the Colts' small defensive players are getting their butts kicked up and down the field every Sunday?"

"Just when you thought it was safe to come out of the locker room, the Chargers scored 21 points in the third quarter. Philip Rivers is showing a very admirable ability to rebound from a rough start ... and before I could even finish writing that, Chad Johnson ran by the entire right side of San Diego's defense for a 74-yard touchdown."

"San Francisco shut down Minnesota last week, and now, thanks largely to three fumbles, they've rammed the Lions' bandwagon off the highway. Are they getting better?"

"The Jets brought a ton of pressure, and the Patriots simply haven't had time to react. Tom Brady can't move around well on the sloppy field."

"Marlon McCree should be suspended for the rest of the year for the helmet to helmet hit he just put on T.J. Houshmandzadeh before the pass was even there."

"I like Jeff Fisher, but he made a cardinal sin at the end of the Baltimore game. Driving for the game-winning field goal, he has 3rd-and-4 at the 25-yard line. The Titans run the ball into the line, leaving a 40+ yard field goal. It gets blocked, and what probably would have been the biggest upset of the day does not happen."

"Shaun Philips really abused Bengals fullback Jeremi Johnson on the Carson Palmer fumble in the fourth quarter … The last two LaDainian Tomlinson touchdowns came within 15 seconds of each other."

"St. Louis' run defense is horrid. 'Oops - I missed the assignment again!'"

"This is the same Steelers team we've seen all year, except with better luck and more stability on special teams."

"Sean Payton - he knows what he's doing - but he looks like a middle manager out there."

"Richie Incognito is the real-life embodiment of the fat guy from Varsity Blues."

"Broncos-Raiders was a heck o####ame if you hate drives or offense."

"Hi, Brandon Jacobs? This is Steve Smith. When you finally give birth to that football, give me a ring, I can give you some wiping tips."

"The Giants were really dominating the game for about a quarter and a half, and then it suddenly turned at the end of the first half, and now they've turned into the gang that couldn't shoot straight."

"The short field goal attempt returned for a touchdown is easily my favorite play in all of football. Except, of course, when it's against the Giants."

In late March, Atlanta Falcons president and general manager Rich McKay, in his role as the co-chairman of the NFL’s Competition Committee, held a conference call in which he revealed what the Committee had discussed regarding penalties and the league’s new points of emphasis during the annual league meetings. The mechanics of several penalties were addressed, but holding was the hot issue.

McKay was asked about the “ingredients of a hold,” an obvious reference to Seattle RT Sean Locklear’s hold on Pittsburgh LB Clark Haggans in Super Bowl XL. The penalty negated a Matt Hasselbeck to Jerramy Stevens pass play that would have put the Seahawks on the Pittsburgh 1-yard line in the fourth quarter, driving for a 17-14 lead with a touchdown. What could have been a 98-yard scoring drive ended three plays later when Hasselbeck threw an interception. When Vice President of Officiating Mike Pereira was interrogated by Rich Eisen on the NFL Network two weeks after Pittsburgh’s 21-10 win, he talked about the “ingredients of a hold” as a viable reason for what seemed to be a ticky-tack call. Of course, as FO’s Michael David Smith wrote four days after the game, Bill Leavy’s crew had other opportunities to flag Locklear through the game. Problem was, the same standard to which Locklear was … um … “held” didn’t apply to others, and that was McKay’s concern.

“We've got a big section in our book that will be on blocking clarifications and dealing with holding, really, and really just rewriting the rule, not changing the way it's officiated, but rewriting the rule so everybody has a clear understanding as we tried to do with defensive pass interference a number of years ago,” McKay told the media.

“One of the things we emphasized in there was seeing the entire foul. If you do not see the entire foul, you cannot call holding,” he continued. “That's specifically applied when players go to the ground. Because what often happens is you see a player, a defensive player on the ground, the offensive player is on the ground and you see a flag, foul it. If you don't see the entire action, you cannot assume that it was holding that caused that player to go to the ground.”

When asked specifically about Locklear’s hold and whether he thought the official saw the play, McKay deferred to Mike Pereira, who was either not part of the conference call, or declined to comment.

Given that new professed emphasis, we can look at the number of offensive holding calls and see if the number has gone down, comparing the first nine weeks of 2005 and 2006. To this point in 2005, 355 holding penalties had been called, and 309 have been called in 2006. Is that enough of a difference to assume a change in philosophy?

Through the entire 2005 season, Ron Winter and Larry Nemmers tied for the most offensive holding calls with 51. Ed Hochuli holds the mark in 2006 so far with 28, and last year’s leaders have taken different paths – Nemmers with 26 and Winter with 14.

If Bill Carollo is your crew chief, your offensive linemen may rejoice – Carollo’s crew has called only five holding penalties all year. Did Bill get a memo that nobody else did? He called 37 holds in 2005, third-fewest in the league, but still far more than his current pace.

Wildly divergent penalty numbers from crew to crew was another point addressed by McKay in that March call. “When you get the swings that you get in some of the crews … I think what Mike (Pereira) is focused on is trying to make sure that during the season, we're paying attention to those trends and that we're communicating with those crews in understanding what they're seeing and why they're calling it and seeing if we're all on the same page,” McKay said. “I think we always have to strive to bring those numbers closer. They'll never be the same and they'll never be within five percent, but we'd certainly like them to be closer than they are. It was discussed.”

But this doesn’t really seem to be a point more closely followed by the officials to date. Through the 2005 season, the least active crew, Bill Vinovich’s, threw only 60% as many flags as the most punitive crew (Nemmers): 185 to 309, and 1258 penalty yards to 2116. So far in 2006, the percentage of calls for the fewest penalties per crew in comparison to the most is 56% - Walt Coleman’s 73 (for 509 yards) to Jerome Boger’s 130 (for 858).

It’s all well and good for the Competition Committee to get together in Hawaii each spring, watch film with Mike Pereira, laugh when Chad Johnson plays golf with an end zone pylon, and eventually discuss what should be altered and improved from year to year in the interest of making officiating more reliable, accurate and trustworthy. But if the edicts don’t transfer onto the field, those March Maui mutterings are little more than background noise.

Post by Doug Farrar

There are several things that NFL scribes and fans refer to when attempting to determine how underrated a player is. For a player like Steelers DT Casey Hampton, it’s his skills in occupying offensive linemen at the line of scrimmage and allowing the linebackers behind him to make plays. Chargers FB Lorenzo Neal plows the holes to keep halfbacks LaDainian Tomlinson and Michael Turner going, while Bears LB Lance Briggs is a machine in coverage, shutting down tight ends and even wide receivers coming over the middle.

It’s hard, though, for a skill position player to be underrated solely because of the sheer amount of coverage they get. Fantasy football players could tell you more about Bertrand Berrian than they could about Vince Wilfork, even if the latter plays a much more important role in winning football games. Highlights focus on diving catches and long runs, and they should -- they’re exciting! That being said, there’s a NFL quarterback whose play is underrated by even fanatical followers of the L who simply look at his statistics and watch his highlights Monday morning. That man, shockingly, is Brett Favre. And even more so than Favre, his top WR, Donald Driver, remains remarkably underrated for a skill he and, perhaps, only a few others in the NFL share; the ability to draw pass interference.

As you may be aware, the NFL does not award the yardage gained from a pass interference penalty to the individual statistics of a quarterback and his wide receiver, which seems quite unfair when you consider the letter of the law: a interference penalty is only supposed to be called when a defensive player commits "...any player movement beyond the line of scrimmage significantly [hindering] the progress of an eligible player of such player’s opportunity to catch the ball". In English, he prevents a player from catching a ball he had the opportunity to catch.

Now, of course, not every pass would result in a catch if the interference penalty was not committed; on the other hand, though, most NFL receivers catch anywhere from 55-65% of the balls thrown in their general direction. Is it fairer, then, to award them none of credit for the plays they are prevented from making, or all of it? I’m inclined to think the latter.

With that in mind, I used Football Outsiders’ play-by-play database from the last several years to look at every pass from 2002-2005 that resulted in a pass interference penalty against the defense that was accepted by the offense -- an event that occurred 820 times in those four seasons. I wanted to see if there were certain players or a certain subset or archetype of player (tall guys, fast guys, good or bad route-runners, etc) that recorded more pass interference penalties than the norm. What I found was that for a majority of players, pass interference penalties were generally dependent upon how many devious stares they got in their direction. Take Plaxico Burress, for example:

Year Throws PI Drawn (Rank)
2002 144 7 (1)
2003 123 3 (25)
2004 60 1 (64)
2005 166 6 (2)

Just to note, I sorted guys who had the same number of penalties drawn by the yards they recorded on those non-catches to determine their rank.

As you can see with Burress, when he was getting a lot of throws towards him, more of them resulted in pass interference penalties. Burress is actually tied for the lead in pass interference penalties against him for the four-year stretch with 17 -- his yardage, though, pales in comparison to the leader.

Most players had patterns like that -- one year, they’d be in the top ten, the next, they’d be in the late seventies. To give another example, Peerless Price was in the top five in 2002 and 2003, when he was thrown 289 passes; in 2004 and 2005, when he was thrown 106, he didn’t record a single pass interference against him.

There were several players, though, whose numbers really stood out against the pack. As I mentioned previously, the Brett Favre to Donald Driver connection has been quite strong: Driver’s 17 pass interference penalties drawn are tied for the lead when it comes to wide receivers over that timeframe, while Favre’s 36 are in first for quarterbacks. What makes the gap even more dramatic, though, is that their pass interference penalties draw so many yards. Driver’s 17 penalties have drawn nearly 27 yards per catch, fourth over the timeframe -- the three receivers who have averaged more (David Patten, Torry Holt, and DJ Hackett) have done so with only half as many throws. With this combination, Driver’s 443 yards gained through pass interference penalties blows away the number two receiver, Patten, who has only 311. If you apply the yardage gained in penalties to Driver’s numbers, the difference is quite dramatic:

Year Rec Atts Yds
2002 70 113 1064
2003 52 87 621
2004 84 138 1208
2005 86 146 1221

2002 (adj.) 74 113 1201
2003 (adj.) 55 87 682
2004 (adj.) 88 138 1278
2005 (adj.) 92 146 1396

While Driver does also draw more penalties as he’s thrown to more, he consistently draws some even in leaner times -- when he was hurt in 2003, for example, he still drew a pass interference penalty about every 28 throws. Last year, Driver had plays of 10, 18, 33, 36, 37 and 41 yards wiped off his record by pass interference penalties; 13% of the yardage he gained all season, a whopping 175 yards.

While Driver clearly has shown a propensity for being interfered with, he doesn’t dominate his position like Favre does. Favre’s 36 completions are four more than the next highest quarterback, Peyton Manning, and his 729 yards blow away Matt Hasselbeck’s 523 yards for second place. Last year, Favre had 276 yards taken away by penalties, which would be nearly 7% of his season total if included in his numbers.

Speaking of the Packers, the other player who stood out as the one who draws pass interference penalties at a rate beyond that commensurate with his attempts is Koren Robinson. Robinson has racked up 13 pass interference penalties drawn in four years despite missing chunks of the 2004 and 2005 seasons, good enough to be tied for fourth in the league over that timeframe.

Strangely enough, Driver hasn’t drawn a single pass interference penalty this season, while Favre hadn’t drawn a single one until last week’s game against the Cardinals, when he managed to earn three penalties. The change may have something to do with the coaching change the Packers underwent, and may raise a point about scheme having something to do with drawing pass interference penalties.

Whether drawing pass interference penalties is an actual skill or something entirely subject to usage is still up for debate, two things are clear. One, if anyone really does have the skill to draw them, it’s reasonably rare; Two, quarterbacks and especially wide receivers are losing a pretty significant chunk of their performance that they could be applying come contract time.

Written by Bill Barnwell

Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"Wonderful game called by Terry McAulay's crew so far in Washington. McAulay might want to give Mike Pereira a call regarding the 'ingredients of a hold.' Evidently, the Cowboys do not possess those ingredients."

"The Giants seem to have figured out that Eli shouldn't be allowed to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield without Burress there serving as a backboard."

"The Dallas safety is a perfect example of why teams should go for it on fourth-and-goal from the one-yard line. Even if you don't get it, you pin your opponents deep and you have a good chance of either a safety or forcing a punt from the end zone. "

"Dan Dierdorf just said Rex Grossman will always have the starting job in Chicago 'because he wins.' Wasn't that the exact same reason people gave last year for giving the job to Kyle Orton and keeping Grossman on the bench?" "Haven't you heard? All Damon Huard/David Garrard/Rex Grossman does is win ballgames."

"Larry Johnson is having a field day."

"Tampa Bay's second quarter rally ruined my plans to rake leaves after halftime."

"Are we obliged to argue about Parcells' dcision to go for two early in the game?" "Why argue? Don't we all agree that it was really, really stupid?"

"Tony Romo just threw a bomb to a wide open TO, who had beat the cornerback and safety, and he dropped it. The cornerback, not surprisingly, was Carlos Rogers. The safety wasn't Adam Archuleta because he wasn't even on the field due to his inability to cover anybody."

"There's nothing quite like the reaction in a Philly sports bar after TO drops a pass. Except maybe for the reaction in Indy after Mike Vanderjagt misses a game-winning field goal.

"CBS just broadcast two "g**d**n"s and a "f****n" as Brian Billick stood a little too close to a microphone when he cursed out an official. It's amazing how much more NFL coaches get away with than NBA coaches. "

"It looks like the Browns are going with the "death by a thousand Phil Dawson field goals" game plan against the Chargers."

"Is there any more frightening phrase to Steelers fans than 'Santonio Holmes takes it out of the end zone?'"

"That Hines Ward play was a microcosm of the Steelers season. I mean, how could you come away from that play saying 'Hines Ward sucks and the Steelers suck?' Ward made some amazing moves and I think everyone agrees he's a great player. And yet, here we are."

"That taunting call on Troy Brown proves the ridiculous nature of the NFL. What used to be a fun and visceral sport is now a kangaroo court for the benefit of referees who are directed to act like the old cranky lady in your apartment complex. 'Turn it DOWN, you hooligans!!!'"

"Next team I hear 'Tom Brady's favorite receiver is the one who's open,' I take a hostage.

"Today has been the worst accumulation of dunderheaded calls since the 2005 postseason. The lack of public accountability when it comes to officiating is the NFL's black mark."

"The Patriots didn't run the ball enough, their playcalling got too funky, and they outsmarted themselves."

Read more at FootballOutsiders.com.

post by Mike Tanier

So, a lot of people have sent e-mail or made comments in the FO discussion threads about our ratings, which still have Pittsburgh in the top 10 despite a 2-5 record. The complaints come in two flavors:

• We're wrong to say that things like fumble recovery, interception returns, and opposing kickoffs are random.
• One single game, Pittsburgh's blowout win over Kansas City, is screwing up our ratings and we need to figure out a way to count blowouts less.

At this point, we're done trying to convince the people making complaint number one, but the second comment is made by readers who generally get what we're trying to do at Football Outsiders. So let's talk about blowouts.

I've mentioned this a few times, and it comes up in our book, but I have tested the DVOA ratings numerous times in an attempt to minimize the importance of blowouts. Every single time, the ratings become less accurate. I'm still not personally convinced that the ratings are treating blowouts properly, but until I figure out a way to make them less important while also improving the ratings, I'm not going to take them out or change them in any way.

Furthermore, the Pittsburgh situation is really strange, and somewhat unprecedented. I went back to see if there had ever been a team where DVOA and record disagreed so strongly because of one big blowout win.  I decided to look at nine weeks, not eight, simply to save time -- I just ran every year through nine weeks as part of improving my midseason projection formula, so these numbers represent DVOA as it would have looked after nine weeks of that season, not how it looks at the end of the year when opponent adjustments are different.

Pittsburgh has a single-game DVOA of 94.7% for their victory over Kansas City. The next highest rating is 27.7%, for the overtime loss to Atlanta, and the Steelers also have positive DVOA ratings in their losses to Cincinnati and San Diego. They have one large negative, -42.0% for the loss to Jacksonville, and two small negatives for the win over Miami and the loss to Oakland. 

I went looking for other teams between 2000-2005 who qualified under these parameters during the first nine weeks of the season:

• One blowout win, defined by single-game DVOA of 75% or more;
• all other games with DVOA below 40%;
• but also, no blowout losses, defined by DVOA below -75%.

Nine teams qualify.

Two of them aren't good comparisons for the Steelers because they were terrible in pretty much every other game of the first half: the 2002 Vikings and the 2003 Jets. Those teams were also near the bottom of the league in DVOA despite one blowout win.

Other teams don't make good comparisons for Pittsburgh because even though they had one blowout that looked out of place on the schedule, they were winning their other games too -- often, with luck as good as Pittsburgh's has been bad. Teams like this include the 2005 Redskins, the 2004 Chargers, the 2001 Bears, and the 2003 Seahawks.

That leaves us with three teams that I think are somewhat good, but not great, comparisons for the 2006 Pittsburgh Steelers.

The 2005 Packers had five bad losses in their first six games. The other game was a 52-3 blowout over New Orleans. Then the Packers started to play better and narrowly lost in Weeks 8-9. At the time, people thought the 1-7 Packers were way too high in DVOA at -5.5%, I think they were ranked 21st if I remember correctly. The next week, of course, was the famous Football Outsiders Message Board Curse game where 1-7 Green Bay beat 6-2 Atlanta, which was ranked 20th.

The 2000 Green Bay Packers were 3-5 after nine weeks, with a DVOA of -5.5%. They had one huge 29-3 win over Arizona in Week 4, but they won their other two games by just 3 points each, and their losses were all very close: 3, 4, 7, 8, and 9 points. The Packers went 6-2 over the rest of the season, although they missed the playoffs.

The 2001 Tampa Bay Bucs were 4-4 after nine weeks, with a DVOA of 17.4% -- which was fourth in the entire NFL at the time, behind only St. Louis, Philadelphia, and Oakland. Those four Tampa losses came by 1, 3, 4, and 7 points and the wins came by 3, 4, 4, and 27 points. Which number does not belong? The Bucs went 5-3 over the rest of the season to slip into the playoffs as a wild card.

That's it.  There really never has been a team with a record as bad as Pittsburgh's and DVOA so high due in large part to one big blowout. One team had a record as bad (2005 Packers) but the DVOA rating wasn't anywhere near as high.  Two teams had DVOA ratings as high, but better records. All three teams won more games over the second half of the season.

The moral of the story, I guess, is that I think the Steelers are still a good team if they have a healthy quarterback, and it isn't out of the realm of possibility for them to finish the year 6-3 or even 7-2. Of course, that won't get them into the playoffs, but it will make things interesting.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Kyle: I very much enjoy reading, analyzing and using your stats. However, I found it odd this past week that the stats have Arizona ranked as #5 vs. other teams' #1 wide receivers. I played Randy Moss with confidence two weeks ago (I'm not saying that the Raiders actually inspire confidence, only that I'm stuck with him), as a non-statistical review of the Cards' performance this season revealed that they have struggled against the #1 WR on teams that can throw: Antonio Bryant, 114/0; Darrell Jackson, 127/1; and Torry Holt, 129/1 (I'd even consider LJ as KC's primary receiver, 104/1).

How did the results of the other three games offset these results enough to get a #5 ranking? The game against the Bears must be seen as an outlier from a qualitative perspective, if not a quantitative one. It's just that teams with above average WRs and a QB that throws regularly have succeeded versus the Cardinal defensive backfield, and fifth seems high. I know that the stats are simply one tool in the toolbox, but this one seemed out of place. Thanks.

Aaron Schatz: Well, the first problem is considering Larry Johnson as the KC #1 receiver. That's simply not how our numbers work, and to be honest that's not how NFL teams work. They don't go to the nickel to account for Johnson, and they don't stick a corner on him in man coverage. Once upon a time, perhaps they did this with Tony Gonzalez when he was the best tight end in the game, but not with a running back.

The Arizona defense has been remarkably inconsistent against the #1receivers. They gave up huge games to Bryant, Jackson, Holt, and Moss. But you also have Michael Jenkins at 28 yards, Eddie Kennison with just 48, Donald Driver with just 48, and Muhsin Muhammad with 2. Just because the Chicago game was weird doesn't mean we toss it out.

Finally, you have the fact that DVOA is not fantasy points. DVOA is opponent-adjusted. It considers not just total yards but incompletes, and #1 receivers are catching 50% of balls against Arizona, while the leaguewide percentage for #1 receivers is 55%. DVOA vs. receivers also takes into account interceptions, because it is measuring the defense on passes to those receivers, not the performance of the receivers themselves. Arizona has picked off 5 passes meant for #1 receivers, tied with Kansas City for the highest total in the league. Two of those, in fact, were intended for Moss in the game you mention in your e-mail.

Post by Aaron Schatz

When two Pro Bowl players go up against each other, a pass-rushing defensive end and a sturdy left tackle, you will hear a lot about it during the broadcast. When those Pro Bowl players are a block-absorbing defensive end and a sturdy left guard, not so much. Watching the Patriots and Vikings play Monday night, I wanted to try to focus on the battle between Steve Hutchinson and Richard Seymour as much as possible.

Seymour suffered an elbow injury the week before so nobody knew how much he would play, but he clearly played a big role in Minnesota's game plan. In the first half, when Jarvis Green was in the game at right end, Hutchinson generally handled him by himself, with ease. When Seymour came in, elbow injury or not, the Vikings respected him enough to double team him with TWO Pro Bowl offensive linemen, Hutchinson and Matt Birk. There aren't a lot of guys Hutchinson needs help with, but Seymour is one of them.

Later in the game, the Patriots decided that the best way to deal with Hutchinson was to just go around him. They began to spread the defensive linemen out, shifting the defensive end over towards left tackle Bryant McKinnie right before the snap on a number of different plays. At the snap of the ball, Hutchinson would step forward and block … nothing. While Hutchinson stood in empty space, Tully Banta-Cain or Roosevelt Colvin would be coming around the side. The whole night, the Patriots abused McKinnie and right tackle Marcus Johnson, and stayed away from the Pro Bowler standing between them.

The next day, I sat down to do game charting with the tape of Sunday's Indianapolis-Denver game. This time I didn't mean to focus on an offensive guard, but while watching the first half of the game, it happened to be an offensive guard who stood out: Indianapolis right guard Jake Scott.

Jake Scott dominated the Broncos in the first half in the same way that Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne dominated the Broncos in the second half. The second Colts drive of the game went 56 yards, from a touchback to a field goal. On that drive, Joseph Addai ran the ball seven times. And all seven times, Jake Scott just took the guy in front of him and pushed the guy right out of the play. Usually it was Mike Myers. Another play it was Kenny Peterson. That was a first-and-10 on the Denver 29, where Al Wilson penetrated up the middle and Addai somehow avoided the tackle at his ankles and gained six yards. While everybody was watching that, Scott was still pushing Peterson over to the right. On another play, Scott was on the second level taking out D.J. Williams as Addai gained seven.

What's strange about this is that Scott is considered to be the worst of the Indianapolis linemen. Last year he subbed for right tackle Ryan Diem in the playoffs and was terrible. Part of the issue is that he has power but not quickness. I didn't notice him doing anything spectacular on the passing plays. But I think Denver noticed, because by the end of the half they were dropping the defensive end over Scott into coverage on passing plays, rushing only three and leaving Scott blocking thin air even though it meant that Manning had all the time in the world to throw.

I don't think the Patriots are going to do that, of course. They won't give Manning that kind of time. But with a 3-4 defense, you don't need to drop a lineman into coverage if you want to leave a guard free. You just use your linebackers on the edges. That's what the Patriots did with Hutchinson -- and if it sounds familiar, it also should remind you of the strategy that Pittsburgh used to upset Indianapolis in last year's playoffs.

Post by Aaron Schatz

The Chargers can do a lot of things well offensively. But they are still at their best when running the ball. Against the Rams on Sunday, they opened up with a 12-play, 80-yard drive that featured eight runs. On their next possession, the Chargers started with a sweep to LaDainian Tomlinson before gaining15 yards on a short pass to Antonio Gates. On first-and-10 from the Rams 38-yard line, the Chargers executed a simple running play that set the tone for the rest of the game.

The Chargers initially lined up in an I-formation with two wide receivers to the left side: Keenan McCardell split wide, Vincent Jackson in the slot. Gates lined up at tight end on the right side. The Rams countered with eight defenders in the box, including Corey Chavous, aligned across from Gates and about five yards deep. Before the snap, Jackson motioned to the right side, resetting in the wing about three yards right of Gates and one yard deep. Chavous responded to the motion by walking up to the line of scrimmage, while cornerback Travis Fisher, who was initially several yards off the line on Gates' side, moved up to cover Jackson. The Rams appeared to have three defenders in good position to stop a run to the right side: Chavous, Fisher, and linebacker Brandon Chillar, who was lined up directly behind left end Leonard Little.

At the snap, most of the offensive linemen slanted left. Center Nick Hardwick cleared out the nose tackle. Guard Mike Goff rode the 3-technique tackle several yards to the left. Right tackle Shane Olivea and Gates initially double-teamed Little, but the combo block was unnecessary. The Rams defensive line was also slanting to the left (their right), so the Chargers had no trouble taking them out of the play. The Chargers are running off right tackle, and left guard Kris Dielman is pulling into the hole forming to Olivea's right side.

Chavous reads the play and is in great position to make a tackle. There's only one problem: fullback Lorenzo Neal. Few fullbacks are as effective as Neal at neutralizing the first defender in the gap, and Neal effectively smothers Chavous. Tomlinson takes the handoff from Philip Rivers and does what running backs are coached to do starting at the Pop Warner level: he hugs the Gates-Olivea combo block.

Great runs often result from great blocks on the second level. Tomlinson got three timely downfield blocks on this run. The first came from the receiver Jackson, who initially tried (but failed) to engage Chavous. Alertly, Jackson picked up Fisher and kept him from filling the gap. Gates, who is known more as a receiver than a blocker, made the second great block. He peeled off his double team quickly and hammered Chillar, taking him out of the play. Dielman made the third great block. Thanks to Neal and Gates, he was able to pull from his left guard position, run through the hole, and climb out to engage middle linebacker Will Witherspoon. Witherspoon fought through Dielman's block, but he never got a clean shot on Tomlinson. Free safety O.J. Atogwe was the last person Tomlinson had to beat, and he did so with style, knocking Atogwe's helmet off with a stiff arm.

Players like Neal, Gates, and Dielman deserve a lot of credit for this play, but just as their blocks made Tomlinson's run possible, his running style made their blocks possible. By trusting his teammates, hugging his double team, and attacking straight up the field, he made it easier for his blockers to latch onto Chillar and Witherspoon. Tomlinson lines up his blocks exceptionally well, then uses his speed and power to turn simple plays into highlight-reel runs.

By the end of the game, the Chargers rushed for 217 yards, averaging 6.2 yards per attempt against a pretty good defense. Some of the AFC contenders have serious problems stopping the interior running game (hello, Colts). The Chargers should be able to exploit their shortcomings come January. Long live Martyball!

I thought I would check in again on the NFL's newest official statistic, quarterback hits.

As I noted in this post a few weeks ago, the NFL has added a few things to the official play-by-play this season, and one of the new stats is quarterback hits. These are now counted by looking for the defender's name in brackets after a pass. For example:

2-15-BLT 20(15:00) 9-S.McNair pass short middle to 85-D.Mason to BLT 25 for 5 yards (59-D.Edwards) [56-S.Merriman].

...means that Edwards made the tackle on the complete pass, but Merriman knocked McNair to the ground after he threw it.

One of the things I noted the first time around was that certain official scorers seemed to be a little too free with giving out hits. There were many more in New England and Cleveland than anywhere else. The problem seems to have been fixed somewhat. In fact, it looks like those high hit totals were just two individual games. In Week 3, there were 30 hits recorded in the New England-Denver game, and 27 in the Cleveland-Baltimore game. No other game this year has had more than 16 recorded hits.

Unfortunately, the stat seems to still be a problem for some scorers, and is recorded somewhat haphazardly. Our game charters have found a number of hits not recorded in the PBP. Sometimes, there will be a roughing the passer call, and no hit registered! We've worked with somebody at NFL.com to fix that problem, which is nice.

Anyway, with those issues in mind, and knowing this is an imperfect stat, here are your leaders through Week 7. For hits, we're counting a play with a recorded hit on a pass attempt, plus any sack that is not listed as a sack out of bounds. This includes plays cancelled by penalties, because the quarterback still feels that hit, pass interference or no pass interference.

The individual defensive leaders:

Julius Peppers, CAR, 15
Leonard Little, STL, 14
Aaron Kampman, GB, 14
Jared Allen, KC, 12
Darwin Walker, PHI, 12
Rashean Mathis, IND, 12

Team defensive leaders, hits per game:

NE, 8.0
NO, 7.5
PHI, 7.3
CLE, 7.0
BAL, 7.0
GB, 6.7
CHI, 6.5
DEN, 6.3

Understand that because of those two weird games, the numbers for NE, DEN, CLE, and BAL are all a little inflated.

The defenses with the fewest hits per game:

OAK, 3.0
TEN, 3.2
NYJ, 3.4
PIT, 3.8
HOU, 4.3

Which one doesn't belong? Yes, one scorer who doesn't quite seem to get the hit thing is the one in Pittsburgh. Heinz Field has had only 4 hits recorded, the lowest of any stadium in the league. That includes zero hits in Pittsburgh's 45-7 win over Kansas City. There's no way that Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle made it through that whole game without being hit after a pass attempt, and in general Pittsburgh doesn't seem like the type of defense that should be at the bottom of this stat, so something strange is clearly afoot.

On the offensive side, the quarterbacks hit most often:

Charlie Frye, CLE, 51
Steve McNair, BAL, 44
J.P. Losman, BUF, 44
Jon Kitna, DET, 40
Carson Palmer, CIN, 36
Tom Brady, NE, 35
Andrew Walter, OAK, 35
Jake Delhomme, CAR, 34

If I remember correctly, our game charting last year had Delhomme as the quarterback hit least often, so this is certainly a switch.

That list of top offenses giving up QB hits is much different, because after the two teams involved in that weird CLE-BAL game, you get lots of offenses with two quarterbacks this year:

CLE, 8.5
BAL, 8.2
MIA, 7.6
OAK, 7.3
ARI, 6.7
TB, 6.5
BUF, 6.3
CIN, 6.0

And here are the offenses giving up the fewest hits per game:

IND, 2.7
KC, 3.2
NO, 3.3
NYG, 3.5
CHI, 3.7

Post by Aaron Schatz

When I write about the New England Patriots, I often mention that they are the only team that features two of the top five players in the league, one on each side of the ball. I get criticized for this, or called a homer (I'm from Boston, for those who don't know). But I was thinking about it the other day, and the fact is -- how many teams can you really say feature a top ten player on each side of the ball? I'm not talking about a top ten player according to me, or even according to you, the reader. Just any player that a reasonable person might put in their NFL top ten overall (not top ten offense or top ten defense). If you think about it, there really are only three teams that qualify:

• New England, with Tom Brady and Richard Seymour
• Carolina, with Steve Smith and Julius Peppers
• Indianapolis, with Peyton Manning and Dwight Freeney

I wouldn't put Freeney in my top ten, because he has trouble against the run, but a lot of reasonable people consider him a top ten player. And that's it. Any other team, you really have to be stretching the idea of who a reasonable fan might consider a top ten player. For example, the closest possibilities might be:

• San Diego, with LT and either Shawne Merriman or Jamal Williams, although obviously Merriman looks a little different since his positive steroids test.
• Seattle, with Shaun Alexander or Matt Hasselbeck or Walter Jones, and then maybe Lofa Totupu.
• Pittsburgh, although it is very tough to put Big Ben in your top ten after the way he's played this year. Troy Polamalu or Joey Porter would represent the defensive side. (Late edit: A commenter mentions Alan Faneca as a possible top ten player to represent the Pittsburgh offense.)
  
• New York Giants, with Barber and either Antonio Pierce or Michael Strahan.
• Philadelphia with Donovan McNabb and Brian Dawkins (Late edit: I didn't know which Philly defender might be worthy of top ten consideration, but a commenter pointed out Brian Dawkins, which makes sense).
  

Then a few teams you would really, really be stretching it. Would anyone consider Kansas City defensive end Jared Allen a top ten player? Anybody on the Denver offense, to go with Champ Bailey? Is Jonathan Ogden still a possible top ten candidate, to go with somebody from the Baltimore defense? If you really want to stretch things, and be very forward-looking, I suppose you could consider Larry Fitzgerald and Adrian Wilson in Arizona, but now I'm just being silly.

Anyway, this is one reason why so many people picked the Panthers this year, and pick the Patriots every year. It's just very rare to have a superstar-quality player on each side of the ball.

Post by Aaron Schatz

BlueStarDude: I’m really surprised by Dallas’s continued high defensive ranking (happy, but surprised). So often they seem to give up four or more yards on first down. Are they propped up by an overachieving third-down defense? An ability to force turnovers? Or is my anecdotal memory that far off?

Aaron Schatz: To be honest, I didn't even realize while I was writing the commentary today that I complimented three defenses that gave up 36, 38, and 41 points this week -- Dallas, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh.

I think part of the issue is the natural tendency to think of things in terms of the last game. Obviously, this wasn't the best week of the season for the Dallas defense, although the worst defensive DVOA for Dallas was Week 1 against Jacksonville. (This was the worst week of the season for both the Pittsburgh and Atlanta defenses.) And while the Dallas defense moved up one spot in rank, the actual DVOA rating declined, from -19.5% last week to -15.5% this week.

But Blue Star Dude is a hardcore fan and FO reader and he knows there is more to this than just a single week, so let's go a little deeper into that Dallas defense.

He is not mistaken that the Cowboys often give up a ton of yards on first down. In fact, the Cowboys are giving up an average of 6.8 yards per play on first down, the worst figure in the league. That high average is in large part caused by four very specific plays, and those four very specific plays can probably be named by every single Dallas fan out there, and those four very specific plays are all tied to a single player who is currently the glaring weakness of the Dallas defense:

• The 60-yard pass to L.J. Smith with safety Pat Watkins in coverage.
• The 87-yard touchdown pass to Hank Baskett with safety Pat Watkins in coverage.
• The 40-yard flea flicker touchdown pass to Reggie Brown with safety Pat Watkins in coverage.
• The 50-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress with safety Pat Watkins in coverage.

I don't want to be rude, but as I stated in the DVOA commentary two weeks ago, the Cowboys might want to rethink the way they use Pat Watkins.

Having given away all these yards on first down, however, the Cowboys really buckle down. It's not an overachieving third-down defense, because they are playing exceptionally well on second down too.

• On first down, Dallas has a defensive DVOA of 14.2%, which ranks 28th.
• On second down, Dallas has a defensive DVOA of -36.5%, which ranks third. Only Baltimore and Chicago are better.
• On third down, Dallas has a defensive DVOA of -37.75%, which ranks second. Only Denver is better.

If you don't get at least four yards against Dallas on first down, you are screwed. On third or fourth down with 7+ yards to go, the Cowboys are allowing 2.1 yards per play. In these 41 situations, the Cowboys have more sacks (9) than conversions allowed (8).

The final issue is opponent strength. The three other teams in the NFC East are ranked 2, 3, and 7 in offensive DVOA, and the Houston Texans -- who only managed two field goals against Dallas -- are 15th.

Honestly, even this week the Dallas defense wasn't as bad as it looked. The Giants scored nine points on defense, the interception return and the safety. They scored a touchdown on a drive that started on the Dallas 14 because of one interception, and a field goal on a drive that started on the Dallas 48 because of another interception.

What about the other teams?

I don't think anybody was questioning Pittsburgh's defense before they let Atlanta score 41 points. Remember what they did to LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson? They just had a bad week.

Atlanta's defense has been much less consistent, and their above-average rating comes from three strong games: the 20-6 victory over Carolina to start the year, the 14-3 win over Tampa Bay, and the 32-10 drubbing of Arizona that began the Matt Leinart era.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Each week, the Football Outsiders staff e-mails one another with updates about Sunday's games. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"I think it's amazing that Joey Harrington threw 62 passes and Chris Chambers had TWO catches."

"Nice to see Ronde Barber clinch his Pro Bowl bid today. What I liked about the two touchdowns was that one was done with guile and one was done with physical skill. "

"I would rather see Donovan McNabb drained, puking, and throwing touchdowns than fresh and throwing easy interceptions."

"Can we check Matt Bryant for steroids?"

"The Jaguars only scored seven against the Texans because Byron Leftwich played like Drew Bledsoe on a bender."

"I really think Bengals tackle Willie Anderson should be named offensive player of the week for the job he did on Julius Peppers."

"The San Diego-Kansas City final score isn't really a big surprise. The halftime score was a big surprise, but not the final score. Losing by a field goal on the road isn't a huge upset."

"I think the two Steelers-Falcons games of the last five years might be the two strangest games of the last five years. Just so many different bizarre scenarios."

"I could read Bill Cowher's lips and he very clearly said after the false start, 'that's a bull---t call.' He's wrong. It was the right call."

"Oakland is beating Arizona, 17-0, in the second quarter. I'm off to buy stock in YouTube before the Dennis Green postgame press conference."

"I really think that the Washington offense with Brunell would be good enough if they had a defense even approaching last year's. Instead, it looks like the Jason Campbell era may be starting soon. "

"Ron Pitts after Chester Taylor’s 95-yard TD run – 'That’s probably the longest run Taylor’s had this season.' You think so, Detective? It's actually the longest run in Vikings history, and Steve Hutchinson was a factor as he walled off Peterson on the cutback. Meanwhile, Matt Hasselbeck'’s in the locker room with what we’re being told is a sprained MCL. Ladies and gentlemen, the value of elite guards has officially been established.