It's July, and nothing, nada, diddly-squat is happening in the NFL. That hasn't stopped me from watching the NFL Network every day. Watching NFLN in July is like watching the Weather Channel on a clear day. It's repetitive, and there's nothing to talk about, but the pretty colors and the cool jazz keep you tuned in.
Here's what I've learned.
In their continuing effort to spin straw into gold, the Saints acquired former Eagles linebacker Dhancin' Dhani Jones to help bolster their run defense. Wow, I wrote that sentence without snickering. To get into the Big Easy spirit, Jones may change his victory celebration from Air Banjo to Air Trombone; he'll toot the imaginary horn after he makes an important tackle (in other words, once every four games). Before signing with the Saints, Jones said he would work for Al Gore as an environmental activist. I feel bad for the Saints defense, but on the flip side, I'm suddenly optimistic about the giant panda.
Jones was on NFLN on Friday reciting poetry. Remember that awkward moment when your girlfriend opened her journal and shared her soul-bearing blank verse with you? ("Here I sit, listening to Morrissey, my heart an empty shell.") Now imagine your girlfriend weighing 230 pounds and wearing a bowtie. That's what NFLN was like on Friday.
In other Saints news, a group of Saintsations cheerleaders has been touring Iraq. The troupe performs at military bases around the Middle East, traveling from gig to gig in Black Hawk helicopters. Talk about Bombshells over Baghdad. The tour has been going smoothly except for one hitch. At a mobile army surgical hospital, a hairy Lebanese corporal donned a miniskirt and pompoms and attempted to sneak off with the girls. He was captured and sentenced to room with Jones in training camp.
The Falcons signed NFL Europa receiver Noriaki Kinoshita, who if he makes the team will be the first player born in Japan to play in the NFL. Bobby Petrino was initially excited by the move, then disappointed to learn that Kinoshita cannot throw a Gyroball. Michael Vick and other Falcons were also disappointed that the long time Amsterdam Admiral didn't smuggle any extra goodies with him from overseas. They hoped Kinoshita could score one of those hard-to-find Nintendo Wii systems. What were you thinking?
For months, NFLN has been running an American Heart Association public service announcement featuring Steve Smith and a bunch of kids running, skating, and swimming. The "Get Up and Move" spots were fast-paced and good-natured efforts to encourage kids to exercise, and Smith looked comfortable in front of the camera. Recently, the PSA was edited: Steve Smith is out, with Matt Leinart in his place. Leinart displays all of the charisma of a department store mannequin and reads his few lines as though he's translating on the fly from Lebanese. This guy is supposed to be "Hollywood"? On camera, he's barely Glendale.
Watching the Smith PSAs made my son want to swim the English Channel and hang glide over the Grand Canyon. But when he saw Leinart, he grabbed a crate a Pop Tarts and a blanket and settled in for a Spongebob marathon. It's time to retire the Leinart ads. The health of our children is at stake.
Don't get me wrong. I like Dhani Jones. He's a Renaissance man. The trouble is, they didn't have football in the Renaissance.
In non-NFLN news, the Sporting News season preview is out, and the otherwise solid publication predicts that the Cowboys will go 13-3 this season. Yes, 13-3. Who is making these predictions … Jon Kitna? Seriously, for the Lions to win 11 games (as predicted by the Oracle of Kitna) and the Cowboys to win 13, the Vikings will have to lose about 34 games.
Speaking of the sports bible, Donovan McNabb's rehabilitation from an ACL tear is on schedule. The Sporting News reported a few weeks ago that McNabb's regimen includes games of tag to improve agility and stop-start strength in the knee. Tag is no laughing matter: the collective bargaining agreement strictly prohibits Kick the Can, and rumor has it that Eric Mangini keeps his players in shape with a vigorous Red Light, Green Light drill. Donovan was apparently playing traditional tag, not freeze tag or TV tag ("Grey's Anatomy! You can't touch me!") TSN reports that at one point, a cornered McNabb improvised, stood at attention, and declared, "I'm a tree. You can't tag a tree." There's no truth to the rumor, however, that McNabb was hanging out with Kinoshita in Amsterdam.
I just realized that my Spell Checker is happily accepting "Kinoshita" without a little red underline. A quick Google search reveals a stunning model named Ayumi Kinoshita, a film director named Keisuki Kinoshita, a hotel named Casa Kinoshita in San Miguel, Mexico, and an NFL Europa receiver who was just signed by the Falcons. Apparently, Kinoshita is a fairly common name in Japan, and possibly Mexico. I'm told Tanier is pretty common in France, but Spell Checker never accepted it until I added it. Maybe if I could throw a Gyroball, or something.
Rookie tight end Greg Olsen signed a contract with the Bears. Olsen is eager to be in camp on time; he wants to master his timing with Rex Grossman. When he does, he'll be the first.
Okay, I'll cop: I watched a lot of NFLN on Friday because I thought I would be on. Indie filmmaker Tim Carr was hawking his movie "Leaf, an Almost True Story," and I appear in the film as a football humorist/historian. Yep, a stretch. Sadly, I wasn't in the clip Carr used, probably because I have the screen charisma of Matt Leinart.
Mike Nolan and Jack Del Rio have once again gotten league permission to wear cheap-looking suits designed by a sneaker company during games. The NFL should adopt a rule that if a coach wears a sneaker suit, then his players must wear Armani cleats. I don't have a problem with suits per se, and I know Nolan wears one as a tribute to his sick father, but I wish these guys were allowed to line up their own formalwear endorsements like NBA coaches. The typical NBA coach looks like who he is: a high-profile executive for a successful multi-million dollar corporation. The sneaker suits make Nolan and Del Rio look like Salesmen of the Month at the local used Hyundai dealership.
It could be worse, though. Rumor has it that liberal firebrand Michael Moore is working on a new film called "Slobbo," an expose on how Bill Belichick's wardrobe choices have unintended consequences for low-wage garment industry employees. In one of the film's most dramatic scenes, Moore and Belichick visit a dry cleaner for the first time in their lives.
Aaron would be miffed if I didn't mention that Football Prospectus will be out in just two weeks. A quick look at the Amazon sales board on Friday found us ranked 1,505th among books, pretty darn good for two weeks before the drop date. I told Aaron that we should call it Football Prospectus and the Deathly Hallows, but the muggle never listens to me. We're ranked 30th in sports books. Take that, Inner Game of Tennis! Be sure to check us out, even if sobriety prevents us from predicting a 13-3 season for the Cowboys or 11-5 season for the Lions.
Finally, as the father of two small children, I watch nothing but kiddie programming when I am not glued to NFL Network. I also see all of the superhero movies. I saw Spider-Man 3 and was disturbed by the amount of time Peter Parker spent dancing in the movie. I saw Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, and shielded my eyes as Reed Richards performed an elaborate dance at a New York club. Superheroes should not dance. Remember the Batutsi? Be glad you don't.
I bring this up because I haven't seen Transformers yet, but I heard a song from the soundtrack by the Goo Goo Dolls. It's a ballad. Worse yet, it is in 3/4 time, making it a waltz. A Giant Robot that Turns into Motorized Vehicle to Fight Evil Waltz. Mark my word, if champagne bubbles start floating and Optimus Prime starts waltzing in that movie, I am taking my kids and marching right out of the theater.
And if old Optimus starts playing Air Banjo or reciting poetry, I'm demanding a refund.
It's easy to talk about the NFL's behavior problems. It's much more difficult to quantify them. At Football Outsiders, we like to use statistics to analyze every aspect of football. Unfortunately, there has never been an effective metric to measure arrests, suspensions, barroom brawls, or other acts of naughtiness.
Until now. After 45 minutes of intense boredom, I've developed the latest weapon in Football Outsiders' data arsenal. I call it the Violent, Immature, Criminal, or Knuckleheaded Behavior Statistic, or VICK BS. The VICK BS tells you instantly whether, on any given day, the NFL is a collection of respectable young athletes dedicated to making the world a better place, an ocean-liner-sized hand basket careening straight into hell's deepest septic tank, or something in between.
Like all of our statistics, the VICK BS is easy to compute. You only need two bits of data:
1) The number of stories in the "Headlines" box on the NFL section of FOXSports.com that relate to criminal or antisocial behavior, and
2) The number of days since an NFL player was last arrested. This value can easily be found on ProFootballTalk.com
Each of these values, by itself, is a pretty potent indicator of how prevalent bad behavior is in the NFL on any given day. Put them together, and you have a handy uber-stat. Just square the FOXSports.com headlines, divide by the days since an arrest, and you have VICK BS.
On Sunday, Mat 27th, at 6 p.m. Eastern time, five of the nine football headlines on FOXSports.com dealt with criminal or mischievous incidents. Over at ProFootballTalk.com, the counter stood at six days without an arrest. Five squared is 25, and 25 divided by six is 4.17. I did that without a calculator, folks, because I have a degree in mathematics.
So Sunday's VICK BS was 4.17. What does that mean? In the world of statistics, context is everything. That's why I devised a simple color-coded companion system for VICK BS. If you are too busy or math-phobic to deal with the actual numerical value, you can simply refer to VICK BS by its color code:
VICK BS: Zero to 0.99
CONDITION: Rosy
COMMISSIONER GOODELL'S FACIAL EXPRESSION: A guarded smile.
TYPICAL WATER-COOLER DISCUSSION: "Hey, that new Australian punter sure is giving our veteran punter a run for his money in minicamp. I'll be following that battle right up until the end of August."
VICK BS: 1.00 to 2.99
CONDITION: Orange you glad you weren't partying with the Bengals this weekend?
COMMISSIONER GOODELL'S FACIAL EXPRESSION: An embarrassed grimace.
TYPICAL WATER-COOLER DISCUSSION: "Crushing and snorting Skittles to get high just isn't right. If NFL linebackers think they can get away with it, then junior high kids will be next."
VICK BS: 3.00 to 4.99
CONDITION: Amber, the exotic dancer who works the 3 a.m. shift and tried to make off with 81,000 of your hard-earned dollars. One at a time.
COMMISSIONER GOODELL'S FACIAL EXPRESSION: Roughly the same look your wife gives you when you come home smelling like you were run over by a cement mixer filled with Makers Mark.
TYPICAL WATER-COOLER DISCUSSION: "Did you hear that Terrell Owens faked his own death to avoid paying income taxes? That man has issues."
Upon hearing that Marshall Faulk officially retired, I was curious to see his place in history. Whenever I want historical information, I start at the excellent website Pro Football Reference. What I found on Faulk was what you would expect, namely he was an amazing player. More interesting was a finding on this page dealing with various leaders in yards from scrimmage. Much
to my surprise, Faulk's replacement in St. Louis, Steven Jackson,
gained the fifth most yards from scrimmage in history during a single
season.
I
watch a fair number of Rams games and was well aware that Jackson had a
Pro Bowl-caliber season, but I did not realize he was doing anything
historic. His total ranked only behind Faulk himself in 1999, Tiki Barber in 2005, LaDainian Tomlinson in 2003, and Barry
Sanders in 1997. Not bad company at all.
Looking at those five dates, however, gives immediate pause as to the historical significance of Jackson's efforts. Quite simply, today's NFL places increased pressure on a single running back. Furthermore, the running back is featured in the passing offense at a much higher rate. Of the top 21 yards from scrimmage seasons of all time, 16 have taken place in the last 10 years. Even more amazing, four of the top 21 took place last season. Tomlinson ranks sixth all time, Larry Johnson 19th, and Frank Gore 21st.
What struck me about that total is that this was the year that the NFL was supposedly buying into multiple running backs. The
presence of four split-carry situations in the Conference Championship
Games led to numerous articles praising this phenomenon. Many
at Football Outsiders have been calling for this sort of arrangement
for years, in large part to avoid wearing down the primary back. I wanted to believe it was true, but a deeper
look shows that radical change is not likely coming.
The
copycat NFL was supposed to follow this trend, but two months into the
off-season, it appears that the teams in the Conference Championship
game themselves are not even following the trend themselves. The
Super Bowl Champion Colts let Dominic Rhodes leave in free agency
without much of an effort to retain him and with no obvious in-house
solution to replace him. The Bears traded Thomas Jones to the Jets for draft picks and have no established back-up to Cedric Benson.
The Patriots cut Corey Dillon leaving only Laurence Maroney and third-down back Kevin Faulk. Only
New Orleans kept both of their running backs, and there, Reggie Bush's
versatility makes it easier to play them both at the same time.
Of course, we could have seen this coming. As recently as 2005, the Colts gave 360 carries to Edgerrin James while the Bears gave Jones 314 in 15 games. The Patriots in 2004 gave Dillon 345 in 15 games. Clearly those coaching staffs were not afraid to ride a workhorse back. All three will have at their disposal young legs to lean on next year and will likely push those backs hard.
Overall last season, 10 running backs had 300 carries compared with 10 in 2005 and nine in 2004. Of the 9 in 2004, five have since missed at least six games in a season due to injury. Admittedly, these numbers are down from the peak of 13 in 2003, but that year was the exception. Nine backs had over 300 carries in both 2001 and 2002.
The failure of teams to adapt appears to be a mistake. The
success of the playoff teams can easily be explained by other factors;
the teams had three of the game's five best quarterbacks for one. More
persuasive is the fact that of the top 10 teams in rushing offense
DVOA, only two had a running back with 300 carries, San Diego with
Tomlinson and New York with Barber. Of note, their
back-ups, Michael Turner and Brandon Jacobs, ranked first and eighth in
DVOA (value on a per play basis) indicating that the offensive lines
played a large role in each team's overall ranking.
Still, despite the success of these teams who split carries, the workhorse back appears here to stay. As
long as that workhorse is also factored in the passing game, the
single-season leaderboard for all-purpose yards will remain in constant
flux. Jackson may yet suffer the same fate as William Andrews. The former Atlanta Falcon ranked sixth on this list from 1985 to 1997 and now finds himself 22nd.
Hopefully, Jackson does not
mimic Andrews in another way. Coming off a 331 carry, 56 catch season in 1983, Jackson blew his knee out in training camp the next season. He gained only 249 yards from scrimmage the rest of his career.
Here at FOX, he's called the "Tackle Machine." At the four-letter network, they called him a "Standout Linebacker." He's Cato June, the former Colts weakside linebacker who just signed with the Buccaneers. Tackles are his calling card: he registered 142 of them this year, his third straight season with more than one hundred. Surely a player who brings down almost 10 opposing ball carriers per game represents a significant upgrade for the Bucs defense, right?
Well, maybe.
Tackle statistics are among the most misunderstood numbers in football. They aren't even "official" stats, but they are easy enough to find on various websites, so fans and writers freely bandy them about. When we see that Zach Thomas made 165 total tackles (103 solos and 62 assists), we assume that he's doing a heck of a job. And we are usually right: it takes a pretty good defender to top 100 tackles. But there's a big problem: tackle totals are highly distorted, and the distortion favors players on bad defenses. That means that the players on top of the tackle leader boards aren’t always the best defenders in the league. Instead, they are often the best players on lousy defenses.
Imagine a defense so good that it always causes opponents to go three-and-out. Such a defense would only record one or two tackles on a typical series: two tackles and an incomplete pass on third down. If that team's offense was competent, then opponents would be throwing the ball to catch up in the second half, creating more incomplete passes and fewer tackles. That's why great defenses often record low tackle totals. The 2006 Ravens recorded just 826 total tackles, the fourth-lowest total in the league. The Bears were also below the league average.
Now flip the scenario and imagine a defense that allows a lot of long drives. Every 80-yard drive represents eight or nine tackles for the defense, even though the unit isn't doing a very good job. The tackle total increases if the run defense is bad, because running plays produce more tackles than passing plays. It goes up again if the team is good at avoiding big pass plays: one 50-yard bomb results in one tackle, but 10 five-yard runs often yield 10 tackles.
A team with a bad run defense that's great at avoiding big pass plays? Wait, I just described the Colts! The Colts defense recorded 1,010 total tackles, the fourth highest total in the league. Here's a list of the teams that recorded over 1,000 tackles last season, along with their DVOA rank in run defense. Notice the trend:
Team Tackles Run Defense Rank
Bills 1,076 29th
Titans 1,059 28th
Jets 1,052 32nd
Colts 1,010 31st
Bucs 1,004 9th
It's pretty clear that high tackle totals are partially the result of an inept defense (the Bucs crash the party because their terrible offense kept the defense on the field forever). The Colts registered nine percent more tackles than the league average. For June, nine percent amounts to about 13 tackles.
But that's not the only distortion affecting June's stats. June's 96 solo tackles ranked 10th in the NFL among linebackers, but his 45 assists ranked fifth. Assist totals can be a little funky. Last year, the average team recorded 701 solo tackles with a standard deviation of 42 (I'm rounding to whole numbers because that's what I do). To de-mathify a little, that means that most teams register between 659 and 743 solo tackles, not much of a spread. The mean for assists was 226, but the standard deviation was a whopping 60, which means that "average" assist totals spread all the way from 166 to 286. With 257 assists, the Colts defense was in the high average range.
If you hate math, you can start reading again. The point is that there may be some disparity between what scorers in different cities call an "assist." In St. Louis (just 85 assists), a defender might have to have his arms around the runner's knees while the main tackler wraps his chest. In Buffalo (352 assists), a defender just has to chest-thump the main tackler after the play to earn an assist. We discovered two years ago at Football Outsiders that some scorers are very generous when doling out "passes defensed" to defenders in cities like Philadelphia. We haven't studied this issue in detail, but the phantom assists were a big problem in the days when teams kept their own tackle data, which is why you can't rely on the totals you see in team media guides from before about 1994.
So June's high assist total may be the result of some extra generosity on the part of the local scorers. Meanwhile, he picked up an extra 13 tackles from playing on a bad defense. Total it up, and his 142 tackles may equate to about 120 for an average defense. That's still a lot of tackles, but it isn't an unusual number. Dozens of linebackers finished with over 100 tackles; most of them are good players, but all of the distortions in the data make it impossible to say that the 120-tackle defenders were better than the 100-tackle players. And the sheer number of guys like Morlon Greenwood and Chris Draft who cracked 100 reminds us that 100 tackles isn't much of a milestone; most teams have one or two linebackers and safeties who approach the century mark every year.
Now, I spent weeks breaking down tape of the Colts defense in December and January. I saw the good and the bad, and I saw a lot of June. He's a very good coverage linebacker. He's a below average run defender. I also have a spreadsheet full of Football Outsiders breakdowns: how many tackles he made on passing plays, how many on rushing plays, how many near the line of scrimmage, how many down the field, and so on. The breakdowns have their own distortions, so I won't go through them all here. But they back up my scouting notion that June is at his best in coverage and makes too many of his tackles after significant gains. June's average tackle occurred 5.3 yards downfield, a poor figure for a linebacker, though its true that he made many tackles after long gains because he was cleaning up his teammates mistakes.
The Bucs signed a good linebacker. June fits their system, and he makes their greybeard defense younger. He'll help the pass defense. But let's 86 the "tackle machine" rhetoric. June made a lot of tackles because there were a lot of tackles to make. Ironically, if he really makes the Bucs defense better, then his totals will go down.
Host: Welcome to the hottest new show on television, the one that pits precocious middle schoolers against people who were too dumb to get on any other reality shows. This week, we offer a new twist: the kids will be competing against NFL personalities.
It's time for our first matchup. Here's the scenario. You are a 32-year old NFL quarterback coming off a bad season. You were just traded to new team, but you are seriously considering retirement instead. What do you do?
Fifth Grader: In recess, I play on a football team. Playing football is fun. My 32-year dad is on an insurance sales team. Selling insurance is not fun. Anyone who chooses selling insurance, or managing a construction company, or waiting until his money runs out and then selling his autograph for $5 a pop at sports card shows is just crazy. I would keep playing football.
Contestant "Jake:" I'm tired of football and I don't want to play anymore. I don't even want to sit on a bench for a year or two and collect a big salary while retaining the $5 million portion of my signing bonus that I may forfeit by retiring. I won't be installing patios for a living in three years. I'm gonna be a television personality. Everybody wants a television analyst with a beard that looks like a squirrel's nest.
Host: Sorry, Jake. The fifth grader wins this round easily.
Now for our next scenario: Your team just went 14-2 but lost in the playoffs. You are a general manager who can't get along with your head coach. You give the coach a vote of confidence after the playoff loss, but a few weeks later you find that you still can't see eye-to-eye with him. What do you do?
Fifth Grader: That's easy. In school, we are taught to put differences aside and work together. When we do group projects, we get grades on how well we divide responsibilities and how well we cooperate. If the team is playing well, the general manager must work with the coach, and they must share credit and blame. Plus, if the general manager waits too long and tries to fire the coach, all of the good replacements will be gone. In gym class, we learn that you never want to pick last, or else you get stuck with someone like Norv Turner running your dodge ball team.
Contestant "A.J.:" Fire the unreasonable son-of-a-gun. Hire whoever is left on the market. Risk tearing down everything we've built in the last four years. I'll show fans who the real football expert is around here, just you wait and see.
Host: Sorry, A.J., we have to go with the fifth grader on that one.
Okay, here's another scenario. You are an NFL owner, and you are signing free agents. You have a chance to sign a left tackle, a former Cardinals first round pick who has been a disappointment for his entire career. What do you do?
Fifth grader: My math teacher told me that money is important, and I shouldn't waste all of it on bubble gum and Avatar action figures. This player sounds like the kind of toy who looks great in the commercial but doesn't quite work right when you bring it home. If a toy like that comes with a Happy Meal, then it is great, but if you spend too much money on toys like that, then you cannot afford really good ones.
Contestant "Jerry:" A big left tackle who might be good? Pay him $50-million. Give him the largest bonus in team history. And put him at guard or right tackle, where he can't possibly be worth that kind of money. Sure, that will shake up the team's salary structure a little, but we don't have any complainers or malcontents on our roster, so no worries. In August, the tackle and T.O will be hanging out in the whirlpool with phantom hamstring pulls while the rest of the team sweats through training camp, but I'm sure my new coach and novice offensive coordinator will be able to manage the situation.
Host: Oops, sorry. The fifth grader wins again.
Okay, here's our final scenario: You are hanging out at a Vegas strip club and have the urge to throw $81,000 around on stage. The promoter decides that the money is his and puts it in a big trash bag. What do you do next?
Fifth grader: Well, I'm a little young to be talking about strip clubs, but hey, this is FOX. I know I am not supposed to throw money around. And my uncle once told me that as soon as the cash hits the stage, it belongs to the club, not the dude who threw it. And most important, I know that the best way to avoid trouble is to just walk away from it. The moment you walk into a strip joint with entourage, a rapper, and enough money to buy a loaded Lexus, you are just asking for trouble.
Contestant "Pacman:" First of all, let me say that I'm a victim in all this. I was the one attacked by the bouncers. My stylist got pushed into a cactus, for goodness sakes, and those things are spiky. Anyway, what red-blooded American man wouldn't blow 81 grand on a chance to "make it rain" for visual effect? And who wouldn't expect to get his money back? How would I know that a major fight would break out and that someone would get seriously injured? For some reason, trouble just keeps finding me.
Host: I'm sorry, but the fifth grader wins again. It looks like a clean sweep for the kids, folks. Tune in next week when a 11-year old demonstrates the proper way to dispose of a water bottle before approaching airport security.
Remember when we all used to wait for June 1, when all kinds of veterans would be cut for salary cap purposes? Teams waited for that day so they could postpone the cap charges by a year. Nowadays teams are doing a much better job of managing the cap, so nobody really needs to push things back by waiting until June 1 to cut someone. Instead, teams seem to be using March 1 as the deadline, so they can officially open up room in the budget before free agency starts on March 2. As an added bonus, cutting a veteran now is just a nicer thing to do, because it is easier to find another job in March than to find another job in June.
So a lot of players were cut over the last couple days. Some of them were surprising, some not. I thought I would take a look at Football Outsiders similarity scores to see what they suggest about these players in the future, should they sign with new teams. Unfortunately, similarity scores are limited to "skill players" on offense. In my opinion, the best player cut over the last couple of days is clearly linebacker Joey Porter, but we can't do one of these for him.
Similarity scores were first created for baseball by Bill James. (Honestly, what wasn't first created for baseball by Bill James?) The basic idea is that we compare players by subtracting a certain amount of points from 1000 based on the differences between statistics: receptions, yards, carries, passes, completion percentage, you name it. The football similarity scores also subtract points for every year difference in age and every year difference in NFL experience. (One player might come out as a redshirt senior, another as a non-redshirt junior, so these can be different.) The goal there is to get a list of similar players at a similar point in their careers. But even better, you can get a list of similar career paths by looking at two or three years in a row.
Obviously, we're using standard stats, so nothing is adjusted for opponent and we don't consider whether a receiver had to suffer with a bad quarterback in a particular year, or anything like that. This is not for hard research, but it's a fun little tool, and it does prove useful. (For example, the list of running backs similar to Shaun Alexander from 2003-2005 includes a lot of guys who got injured the next year.)
My database for similarity scores goes from 1978-2006. (We start in 1978 because of the liberalization of passing rules that year.) 1982 and 1987 get pro-rated for the strike. I'll list the top 10 most similar players for each guy, not counting other players from 2004-2006 -- those guys are listed, but not counted in the top 10. I'm only listing the third year for each guy.
Joe Horn
1) Yancey Thigpen, 1999 Oilers
2) Alfred Jenkins, 1983 Falcons
3) John Stallworth, 1986 Steelers
4) Stanley Morgan, 1988 Patriots
5) Frank Lewis, 1983 Bills
6) Steve Largent, 1989 Seahawks
7) Fred Barnett, 1996 Dolphins
8) Jimmy Smith, 2003 Jaguars
9) Rob Moore, 1999 Cardinals
X) Muhsin Muhammad, 2006 Bears
10) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets
This is a list of great veteran receivers, like Horn. You've got a couple Hall of Famers, and some franchise legends like Morgan and Smith. But four of these guys didn't play the next year. Five of them were part-time players the next year, which is also true of the next couple players on the list (J.T. Smith, Roy Green, Terance Mathis). Only Jimmy Smith rebounded to his prior level of play with 1,172 yards and six touchdowns. Joe Horn may be useful next year, but after two down years and lots of nagging injuries, I don't think you can trust him to be more than your third option.
Eric Moulds
1) Terance Mathis, 2001 Falcons
2) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets
3) Andre Reed, 1999 Bills
4) Anthony Carter, 1991 Vikings
X) Rod Smith, 2006 Broncos
5) Tim Brown, 2003 Raiders
X) Keyshawn Johnson, 2006 Panthers
6) Drew Hill, 1992 Falcons
7) Keenan McCardell, 2002 Bucs
8) Troy Brown, 2003 Patriots
9) Webster Slaughter, 1995 Chiefs
10) Ahmad Rashad, 1982 Vikings
This is another list of good veteran receivers, although not as good as the list for Horn, which makes sense, since Moulds in general was not as good as Horn. Like the list for Horn, one player on the list did continue to play at a high level, Keenan McCardell. Troy Brown became a two-way player the next year, but I don't think Eric Moulds will be doing that. In general, this is the same deal as above: most of these guys were part-time receivers the next season. The difference is that fewer of these guys retired, maybe because when you play at the level of Steve Largent, it's easier to quit knowing you have nothing else to prove.
Keenan McCardell
X) Joe Jurevicius, 2006 Browns
1) Ricky Proehl, 2002 Rams
2) Nat Moore, 1986 Dolphins
3) Roy Green, 1991 Eagles
4) John Taylor, 1994 49ers
5) Mike Sherrard, 1995 Giants
6) Mark Clayton, 1992 Dolphins
7) Ed McCaffrey, 2003 Broncos
8) Roger Carr, 1981 Colts
9) Qadry Ismail, 2002 Colts
10) Mel Gray, 1981 Cardinals
Yes, the most similar player to Keenan McCardell is another active player. Frankly, none of these players is really that similar to McCardell. For example, McCardell was 36 last season, older than all 11 players listed above. McCardell has one of the strangest career patterns in NFL history. The Browns goofed around with him for three years, playing him mostly on special teams. They finally had him start in 1995, and he put up a good but not great year of 709 yards and four touchdowns. Then he signed a free agent contract with Jacksonville, and managed at least 1,100 yards in four of the next six years -- even though he was the number two receiver on the team behind Jimmy Smith.
So at 32, he signs with Tampa Bay. Personally, he has a decline year, only 670 yards, but he also wins a Super Bowl title. Looks like a guy who finally got a ring just as his career was about to hit the same place Joe Horn has been in the last two years, right? Except McCardell then goes and has the best season of his entire career at age 33. When Keyshawn Johnson threw his little hissy fit, McCardell became the number one receiver on his team for the first time in his entire career -- in his TWELFTH season.
Wait, there's more! He takes this positive momentum and holds out for half a season. He wins out, gets traded to San Diego, plays okay in a few games, then the next year at age 35 he has another great year including a career-high 9 touchdowns. Who the hell else has a career high in touchdowns at the age of 35? One year later, in 2006, he finally collapsed, and by the end of the year he was barely on the field.
What's really strange is that if I listed every appearance by a player, rather than just the most similar season, 4 of the top 14 most similar three-year spans to Keenan McCardell 2004-2006 belong to Ricky Proehl in any three-year period between 2000 and 2005. So if McCardell wants to sign somewhere next year and play in the Ricky Proehl role, it's there for the taking. I hear the Colts need a Ricky Proehl to replace, you know, the actual Ricky Proehl. Otherwise, it's retirement time.
Jamal Lewis
1) Rodney Hampton, 1995 Giants
2) Jerome Bettis, 1999 Steelers
3) Mike Pruitt, 1983 Browns
4) Adrian Murrell, 1998 Cardinals
5) Sammy Winder, 1987 Broncos
6) Joe Morris, 1988 Giants
X) Thomas Jones, 2006 Bears
7) Mike Rozier, 1988 Oilers
8) Thurman Thomas, 1996 Bills
9) George Rogers, 1985 Redskins
10) Earl Campbell, 1983 Oilers
You look at that list, and you say, "Wow. Jamal Lewis has a future. Jerome Bettis? Jerome Bettis had some great years since 1999." Well, don't be quite so optimistic. Like Keenan McCardell, Jerome Bettis has had a particularly unique career. Very few players have been burnt out by a high number of carries, then worked their way back to their previous level of performance. Bettis did it TWICE, in 2001 and then again in 2004. Could Jamal Lewis do that? Well, he was great back when he was great, right? But so were the other guys on this list.
Other than Bettis, what you have here is a list of a lot of players who were great in their youth and then declined in their late 20s, but kept on plugging along with 200-carry years at 3.6-3.8 yards per carry. George Rogers is the only one of these players to average more than 4.1 yards per carry the next season. You've got the aborted Joe Morris Cleveland comeback, Earl Campbell getting traded to New Orleans... ah, memories. If you want to be relevant in 2007, Jamal, get on the phone to Jerome Bettis immediately and ask for training tips.
Drew Bledsoe
1) Ron Jaworski, 1986 Eagles
2) Jim Plunkett, 1984 Raiders
3) Bobby Hebert, 1994 Falcons
X) Kerry Collins, 2006 Titans
4) Phil Simms, 1991 Giants
5) Brad Johnson, 2004 Bucs
6) Danny White, 1986 Cowboys
7) Tommy Maddox, 2004 Steelers
X) Trent Green, 2006 Chiefs
8) Ken O'Brien, 1992 Jets
9) Archie Manning, 1981 Saints
10) Jeff Hostetler, 1997 Redskins
If you read the FO blog regularly, you may remember that, halfway through the season, we introduced very early results from our game charting project. And surprisingly, those results had Fred Thomas as one of the better cornerbacks in the league in the early going. It was surprising because he's never been thought of as very good, and even more surprising as the season went on because Thomas was clearly one of the most flammable cornerbacks in the league in November and December.
Well, I think I have discovered why the early numbers were positive on Thomas. I just finished charting the second half of Carolina's Week 4 win over New Orleans, which was one of the unfinished games in the charting project. And Thomas sucked enough in this game to make up for the entire rest of the first month of the season.
At no time did Thomas get burned deep, except when he bit hard on a flea-flicker and completely left his man. Instead, this game showed the other problem with a bad cornerback. Because Thomas had to give so much room to Steve Smith (or sometimes Keyshawn Johnson) in order to prevent getting burned, he gave up tons of completions on hook routes and comeback routes.
Over the course of the game, we have 14 passes with Thomas in coverage: 11 to Steve Smith, 3 to Keyshawn Johnson. 13 of them were caught, and the 14th was caught but Steve Smith was sliding out of bounds so it was overturned on replay. Including the overturned catch as zero, the average play gained 8.2 yards. Based on the usual FO markers for success, 11 of the 14 passes were successful for the Panthers, but not one gained more than 17 yards.
9 of the 13 catches had no yards after catch, and 3 of the catches that had yards after catch were either screens or quick hitches (a.k.a. the "smoke" route) that are called because the cornerback is playing too far back off his man. It was just hook after hook. Run, turn, catch, tackle. Run, turn, catch, tackle. Over and over.
I haven't heard the Saints mentioned in the Nate Clements sweepstakes. Nor have I heard them mentioned as possible trade partners to get Dre' Bly out of Detroit. But they should seriously consider one or the other, because that cornerback spot is the biggest hole on the team going into 2007.
Warren Margolies:I read your article about the 370
Carry Theory with great interest, since I had been assuming that LJ was
going to be my fantasy football keeper for years to come. Since I read
the article, I've been debating doing the seemingly unthinkable and
keeping Reggie Bush instead of LJ... is this too reactionary?
I normally trust Scott Engel from ESPN.com, who pointed out that
LJ didn't become a full-time back until the second half of '05. What is
your opinion on Bush vs. LJ for the next few years?
Aaron Schatz: The fact that LJ was not a full time back until the middle of 2005 doesn't matter. Jamal Lewis got cut down by overuse after a single season. What does matter is that fantasy and reality are not the same thing. There is a good chance of LJ having a catastrophic injury, or nagging injuries that cost him games. But there's also a good chance of him slowing down, but still keeping a starting job at 4 yards per carry, with 1,200 yards and a dozen touchdowns. That player would come out as average in the FO stats, a big step down for Larry, but that's still an every-week starting fantasy running back.
And I'm not sure what Bush's future holds, fantasywise. Despite his awesome second half, it's still hard to figure out how Sean Payton will use him going forward. Obviously, he has more value if you play in a points per reception league.
I think I would try to deal LJ for a more standard RB than Bush, but one who has less risk than LJ. Rudi Johnson, perhaps, or Frank Gore. If you think LJ's perceived value is higher than his real value, don't ditch him, flip him.
By the way, the hidden fact in the Patriots win over the Chargers: It prevented LaDainian Tomlinson from entering the danger zone of 390 carries in the playoffs + postseason.
Since you’ll be reading scouting reports on every possible aspect of the upcoming Conference Championship games, we thought it would be enlightening to add the FO perspective on another aspect – the officials for both games. Football Outsiders keeps a database with every penalty called per season, but the important thing to note when reading this article is that playoff officials don’t work with the crews that are assigned to them through the regular season – the postseason games get all-star crews. This means, of course, that tendencies may be different, and we don’t have the names of each crew member, just the head officials. But those head officials have a lot of impact on what gets called. New Orleans at Chicago: Terry McAulay
McAulay, an NFL official since 1998, started his career as a side judge and was promoted to his current position of referee (crew chief) in 2001. He has officiated one Super Bowl - XXXIX on February 6, 2005, when the Patriots beat the Eagles, 24-21. This will be his third Conference Championship game. In 2006, McAulay called the second-most penalties (239) for the fourth-most yards (1,655). His 6.924 yards per penalty was 13th in the NFL.
The Bears were the NFL’s fifth-most penalized team in 2006, with 133 for 923 yards. The Saints were Chicago’s mirror image - with only 90 penalties for 597 yards, they finished fifth from the bottom in total penalties called.
Both teams were in the middle of the pack in false starts (the NFL’s most commonly called penalty this season by far) – Chicago with 22 and the Saints with 23. Where the teams differed was in the second most common infraction, offensive holding. Chicago was called 23 times for holding, while New Orleans had only 16 holds. The Bears had 13 more defensive offsides calls than the Saints (18-5), though New Orleans had twice as many defensive pass interference penalties (4-2). It’s also worth noting Chicago’s nine unnecessary roughness calls, three times more than New Orleans’.
Which team should be concerned with McAulay’s penalty tendencies? The Bears know him better, as McAulay called two of their games this season – the Week 4 beatdown of the Seahawks, and the Week 16 squeaker over the Lions. Both contests were pretty evenly called, but very busy from a flag perspective. The 37-6 domination over the Seahawks saw 17 total penalties – eight for Chicago (the home team, as they will be here), and nine for the visitors from the Northwest. The 26-21 win over the Lions at Ford Field had 27 total called penalties and only 12 for the visitor. He called no Saints games in 2006.
McAulay calls a lot of penalties, but he doesn’t have any grievous diversions from the norm. Both teams will want to be in their best behavior, but unlike out next contestant, there aren’t any numbers that take you aback.
New England at Indianapolis: Bill Carollo
One thing that we’ve noticed at Football Outsiders in the four years we’ve tracked penalties is the amazing deviation from crew to crew when it comes to certain calls. In 2006, no referee personified that better than Bill Carollo. A side judge since 1989, he was promoted to the position of referee in 1996. Carollo has participated in two Super Bowls, and this will be his sixth conference championship.
Now, as to his most interesting number – Carollo called the fourth-fewest penalties (186) for the fourth-fewest yards (1,273), and his 6.8 yards per penalty average was – you guessed it – fourth. While he called his fair share of false starts (43), he almost never called offensive holding. Larry Nemmers and Ed Hochuli tied for the most holds called in 2006 with 42, and the league average was 33.5 per crew. How many did Carollo’s crew call? A stunning 11 – all season – and three were against the New York Giants in Week 2.
Carollo called no Patriots games in 2006, but he did preside over the Week 12 45-21 Indy win over the Eagles at the RCA Dome. In that game, he called a total of four penalties, all against the home team. Certainly, he’s as hands-off as McAulay is proactive.
Who benefits from this? The Patriots were called for ten more holds than the Colts (21-11). What about the illegal contact that the Colts will no doubt be conscious of? Carollo called that 10 times, tied with Gene Steratore’s crew for second-most in the NFL. New England’s been called for seven of those infamous infractions, with Indy having only three. But Carollo called defensive pass interference only five times, lowest of any referee. Most refs who call DPI a lot don't call much illegal contact, and vice versa, because the rules separating the two are confusing.
The Colts had 23 false starts in 2006, five more than New England, while Indianapolis was flagged for more than twice as many defensive offsides calls - 11-5. In this game, it's possible that New England can counter the Colts' tendency to fly off the line at (or near) the snap with a few extracurricular bear hugs.
Two crews with very different ways of calling their games will send their head men to preside over all-star officiating teams in the AFC and NFC Championship games this Sunday. So while you’re watching Reggie Bush try to solve Brian Urlacher, or perhaps the conclusion of Peyton Manning’s exhaustive battle with his ultimate postseason nemesis, remember that those guys wearing the neutral stripes can be decisive difference-makers.
One of the big stories this weekend is whether the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots can hide their weaknesses at cornerback. On the Saints, one corner (Fred Thomas) has given up big plays far more often than the other two. On the Patriots, one corner (Asante Samuel) is much better this season than the other two.
Let's go through data from the Football Outsiders game charting project to see what we can learn about who each cornerback might end up covering during the game. We've assigned each offense with #1 WR and #2 WR for each week, with other WR into a third category and TE as a fourth category.
Standard caveats apply: Charting off of television camera
angles is bound to have mistakes. This information is incomplete, because we
aren't finished with every game yet. Designations of "#1 WR" and
"#2 WR" are somewhat arbitrary, and it would be better to mark
"flanker" and "split end" except that we have no record of
which players were on which side on every play. "Other WR" doesn't
necessarily designate slot receiver, since sometimes the top guy will move to
the slot in a three-wide.
Anyway, none of this means we can't learn something, so
let's see what we find when we look at which defenders cover which receivers
the most often for each team.
Chicago
Bears
vs. #1 WR
33-C.Tillman 48%
31-N.Vasher 18%
55-L.Briggs 6%
24-R.Manning 5%
Uncovered/Hole in Zone 5%
Other 17%
vs. #2 WR
33-C.Tillman 24%
31-N.Vasher 19%
24-R.Manning 15%
55-L.Briggs 7%
Uncovered/Hole in Zone 7%
54-B.Urlacher 5%
38-D.Manning 5%
Other 19%
What you see here are three things.
In the Bears' Tampa-2 defense, Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher
aren't usually assigned to specific receivers. But it doesn't matter whether
the quarterback is throwing to one starter or the other -- he's going after
Tillman more often.
Because of the Tampa-2, the Bears have a higher than normal
percentage of passes listed as Uncovered or Hole in Zone.
It's not man coverage specifically, but Lance Briggs
probably ends up defending starting wide receivers more than any linebacker in
the league.
vs. Other WR
24-R.Manning 29%
33-C.Tillman 14%
31-N.Vasher 14%
55-L.Briggs 13%
Uncovered/Hole 10%
Other 20%
This responsibility is less specific on some teams (as you'll see when I do the
Patriots tomorrow) but on the Bears, that third corner is most often on that third
guy. And there's Briggs again.
vs. TE
Uncovered/Hole in Zone 16%
55-L.Briggs 15%
54-B.Urlacher 13%
46-C.Harris 12%
92-H.Hillenmeyer 10%
33-C.Tillman 6%
31-N.Vasher 6%
35-To.Johnson 6%
Other 17%
The high Uncovered/Hole in Zone number for covering tight
ends is very indicative of the Tampa-2.
New Orleans
Saints
vs. #1 WR
22-F.Thomas 35%
21-J.Craft 19%
34-M.McKenzie 18%
29-J.Bullocks 8%
23-O.Stoutmire 5%
Uncovered/Hole in Zone 1%
Other 14%
Burn, baby, burn. Disco inferno!
vs. #2 WR
34-M.McKenzie 26%
22-F.Thomas 25%
21-J.Craft 15%
58-S.Shanle 7%
29-J.Bullocks 7%
Uncovered/Hole in Zone 8%
55-S.Fujita 5%
Other 8%
The question here is: Is Fred Thomas covering the top
receiver more often than McKenzie? Or do opposing quarterbacks just throw to
the top receiver more often than he's covered by Thomas. Remember, we can't
chart a pass with Thomas covering the #1 WR unless the pass is thrown to the #1
WR. Last week, we talked about the difference between Thomas's performance
before and after midseason. Now, look at the difference in where opposing
quarterbacks threw the ball:
Weeks 1-8: Thomas covered 28% of charted passes to #1
WR, 32% of passes to #2 WR. Weeks 9-16: Thomas covered 44% of charted passes to #1
WR, 17% of passes to #2 WR.
And remember, Thomas missed a couple of games in the second
half of the season due to injury (Weeks 10 and 12) so when he was in the
lineup, those percentages were actually higher.
vs. Other WR
22-F.Thomas 32%
21-J.Craft 20%
34-M.McKenzie 18%
29-J.Bullocks 8%
Uncovered/Hole in Zone 4%
Other 18%
Yep, he's number one here too.
vs. TE
41-R.Harper 16%
55-S.Fujita 13%
21-J.Craft 11%
Uncovered/Hole in Zone 11%
34-M.McKenzie 8%
58-S.Shanle 8%
23-O.Stoutmire 8%
29-J.Bullocks 7%
53-M.Simoneau 7%
22-F.Thomas 5%
Other 7%
Among the myriad of incredible facts about the 2006 New
Orleans Saints is this: They got a draft steal in strong safety Roman Harper,
who was excellent in pass coverage early, yet they continued to play well even
though he was lost for the year after five games. Harper was used so often in
pass coverage that he comes out as the most common defender assigned to the
tight end -- even though he played just one-third of the season.
Summarizing all this: On each of these teams, quarterbacks
prefer to go after one cornerback over the others. But on Chicago, the picked-on cornerback was just as
good as the other cornerback this year. That's not true in New Orleans. Advantage: Bears.
Then again, this is all dwarfed by the fact that New Orleans has the
better quarterback by leaps and bounds. Advantage: Saints.
We all know that the Colts defense has turned things around so dramatically in the playoffs. But I'm not sure people understand what a historical outlier the Colts would be if they actually beat the Patriots this Sunday and make Super Bowl XLI. They would have the worst regular season defense to ever make the Super Bowl -- certainly since 1978, the year the NFL expanded to a 16-game season and liberalized passing rules to increase offense. The Saints would also end up as one of the worst defenses to ever make the Super Bowl, although not quite to same degree.
Check out where the 2006 Colts and Saints stand in the following categories. Teams that actually won the Super Bowl are in italics.
Most regular season points allowed by conference champion
(since 1978):
2006 Colts, 360
1983 Raiders, 338
1983 Redskins, 332
1988 Bengals, 329
1995 Steelers, 327
1986 Broncos, 327
1999 Titans, 324
2006 Saints, 322
1991 Bills, 318
Most regular season rushing yards per carry allowed for conference
champion (since 1978):
2006 Colts, 5.3
2006 Saints, 4.9
1997 Broncos, 4.7
1984 Dolphins, 4.7
1982 Dolphins, 4.4
1986 Broncos, 4.4
1987 Broncos, 4.4
2004 Eagles, 4.3
2001 Patriots, 4.3
Highest completion percentage allowed during regular season
by conference champion (since 1978):
2006 Colts, 64.3%
1994 Chargers, 62.9%
2004 Eagles, 60.7%
2002 Raiders, 60.7%
1993 Cowboys, 60.2%
1995 Steelers, 59.1%
1992 Bills, 58.7%
2004 Patriots, 58.6%
2001 Rams, 58.0%
2005 Seahawks, 58.0%
The Saints allowed a 56.3% completion percentage this season, so in this category, they would actually end up roughly average among conference champions.
Fewest regular season interceptions by conference champion
(since 1978):
2006 Saints, 11
1982 Redskins, 11 (strike year)
1990 Giants, 13
1993 Cowboys, 14
2005 Steelers, 15
2006 Colts, 15
2005 Seahawks, 16
2003 Panthers, 16
1999 Titans, 16
1986 Broncos, 18
In the Colts' defense, they faced only 414 pass attempts all year because they were so easy to run on, so their interception per pass attempt rate isn't quite so awful.
How about our advanced Football Outsiders stats?
Worst regular season defensive DVOA by conference champion
(since 1997):
2006 Colts, 11.3%
2006 Saints, 3.6%
1998 Broncos, 0.4%
2004 Eagles, -2.2%
2005 Seahawks, -3.5%
1999 Titans, -4.6%
2001 Patriots, -6.3%
2002 Raiders, -6.4%
And finally, here's an important stat that measures both points scored and allowed, Pythagorean wins. For those unfamiliar, this takes points scored and allowed and projects an estimate of wins over a 16-game season. The team with the most Pythagorean wins has won the Super Bowl more often than the team with the most actual wins, although the team with the most Pythagorean wins this year is now out of the playoffs (Ravens, 12.7):
1979 Rams, 8.4
2003 Panthers, 8.6
1986 Broncos, 9.4
2006 Colts, 9.6
1980 Raiders, 9.6
1999 Titans, 9.8
1995 Steelers, 10.0
1994 Chargers, 10.0
1985 Patriots, 10.1
1988 49ers, 10.1
2006 Saints, 10.3
Just because something has never been done before doesn't mean that it can't be done in the future. But no team has ever made it to the Super Bowl with a defense this bad, much less won the thing. The Saints are a different issue, because their defense wasn't as bad as the Colts during the season, and the Bears' own defense has been having problems since the beginning of December. But as great as the Colts' defense has been over the last two weeks, I have yet to hear a reasonable explanation as to why those two games are a better indicator than the 16 games that came before.
Postscript: I should note that the same issue exists with Peyton Manning. There's no reason to believe that his poor performance in the last two games is a better indicator of how he'll play next week than his fabulous performance in the first 16 games.
Here's what the FO staff was talking about during the games on Saturday and Sunday:
"Man, this is making me nostalgic for the days before Jamal Lewis got all used up, when he was really good and I didn't make fun of him all the time."
"Does Indy ever go max protect? Today might be a good day for it."
"When did Marty Schottenheimer become head coach of the Ravens? The Baltimore offense is exhibiting every kind of conservative look that makes people criticize Martyball. Sitting on the ball at the end of the half was just one of many examples."
"Peyton Manning has discovered mobility."
"I've watched 95% of the Colts games for the past four years, and I can't remember seeing a flea flicker."
"Well, for a second there, I thought Brian Billick had his balls reattached, but he changed his mind and punted."
"The only question about the Colts defense playing well is, if they could play like this, WHY DIDN'T THEY FOR THE ENTIRE REGULAR SEASON?"
"This is the best tackling, hardest hitting Colts defense I've seen this year. I think they've found their ... SWAGGER."
"Hmmm...a moronic holding call by Bill Leavy's crew early in the fourth quarter that pretty much killed a huge drive? In the postseason? I've never seen THAT before!"
"This game reminds me of last year's Colts-Steelers playoff game. The underdog comes in, pretty much controls the game, and pulls out the win. And you know the common link? Dan Dierdorf. That's right, if you're an underdog playoff team playing in the AFC Divisional game, you might want to that request Dierdorf does the game."
"Reggie Bush. I mean, wow. He's not supposed to be able to do that in the NFL."
"This is a great game between two very good teams."
"Can anyone think of a player who's changed his style as dramatically as Deuce McAllister? He's a totally different back. Maybe someone should tear DeShaun Foster's ACL."
"Great response by the Saints defense after the Reggie Bush turnover. Just when you think everyone in the stadium was probably thinking, 'oh,that's right, we're the Saints' they come up with a stop"
"It came down to that second-and-1. The Eagles should have been able to push that in for a touchdown, and they couldn't. The Saints are just an amazing story. I think they're going to the Super Bowl."
"Andy Reid made a big mistake punting. The defense was tired. They had a better chance of making that fourth-and-15 than they did of keeping the Saints from a first down AND then scoring in the final 40 seconds or whatever would be left after that."
"As long as the Seahawks take advantage of every possible Bears mistake, they have a chance."
"In my head, I'm hearing Stu Nahan say, 'I’ve got to give that round to Balboa.' The third quarter has been Seattle's.
"Every time the Seahawks get a good run from Alexander, they go back to him and get stuffed. I'd call that a tendency, Mr. Holmgren!"
"Hell of a kick by Robbie Gould."
"Did the Chargers stop blitzing on that touchdown drive at the end of the half? They couldn't get any pressure, and it seemed like their pass rush was a lot less diverse and creative than the rest of the half."
Why did Marty go for it on fourth-and-11 from the 30? I believe in going for it on fourth but 11? You spent a third round pick on Nate Kaeding and don't feel you can trust him from 48 yards?
"The Chargers receivers pretty much suck today."
"Tom Brady is awful today. Just terrible. He threw the second INT off his back foot, and he just missed a wide open Ben Watson. He's getting time to throw and he just looks awful."
"Clutch interception by Brady."
"Yep. Belichick is a genius for calling the pick-and-fumble on 4th-and-5. And Schottenheimer's a choke artist for not anticipating it"
"This game is amazing. It really feels like the Chargers have annihilated the Patriots, yet as I write this it's a two-point conversion away from being tied."
"What can you say about Stephen Gostkowski? He's money in the playoffs."
Before this weekend's playoff games, let's take one more look at the (incomplete) Football Outsiders game charting data. Again: Data incomplete, cleaning not finished, do not take as gospel, etc.
One thing we ask people to mark down is the number of pass rushers and blockers on any pass play (including scrambles). We learned last year that teams send an extra pass rusher so often than five doesn't really count as a blitz anymore. Six or more is when the defense is giving up on coverage to get to the quarterback.
Here's the kooky thing: the teams we have listed as blitzing the most this year are completely different from the teams we have listed as blitzing the most in 2005. Perhaps I'm measuring something differently, or this is an issue with the incomplete data. But last year's top blitzing teams were Denver, New England, and Philadelphia. Based on the data I have here, those defenses rank 10th, 9th, and 22nd this year, respectively. Here's where the eight remaining teams all stand, based on the percentage of pass plays (scrambles or passes) where the defense sent six or more pass rushers:
9. Philadelphia (11%)
11. Baltimore (11%)
15. Chicago (10%)
22. New England (7%)
24. New Orleans (6%)
25. Seattle (6%)
27. San Diego (5%)
32. Indianapolis (3%)
The Colts were last in 2005 as well. Tony Dungy just doesn't blitz. We only counted three blitzes by the Colts in 2005, total. This year we've got 10 in our incomplete data, which means Indy's blitz rate more than tripled and the Colts are still last in the league.
The data now consists of Weeks 1-15, and while there are some holes, we've tried to get as many games as possible involving the eight remaining playoff teams. Standard caveats, of course: this data is unofficial, compiled by volunteers, and it is hard to always see who was in coverage when using TV tape. Some definitions:
Yards per pass: Simply yards per pass attempt with this defender listed as the main one in coverage.
Stop rate: The percentage of plays with this player in coverage that fell short of 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third down.
All rankings are out of players with at least 30 charted passes.
Baltimore
I've written about this each time I've looked at the game charting data this year. While it isn't quite as extreme as it was early in the season, there's a colossal difference between Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister. Rolle's stop rate of 43% puts him among the 10 worst cornerbacks. He's also allowed 11.0 yards per pass. That's the highest of any cornerback in the league except one: Kevin Dockery, the Giants nickel back who I mistakenly referred to as a safety last week.
McAlister, on the other hand, has a stop rate of 62%, which ranks seventh among all cornerbacks (he's tied with Champ Bailey). He's allowed 7.1 yards per pass, which is about the league average. I'm guessing that McAlister has a high stop rate despite an unimpressive yards per pass because Baltimore opponents are often in third-and-long thanks to sacks and stuffed running plays. McAlister has stopped 18 of 24 charted passes on third down. Rolle has stopped 8 of 18.
As far as the other players, Ed Reed's numbers are actually really awful, a 29% stop rate and 14.2 yards per pass on 21 charted passes. Reed had the highest stop rate of any safety in 2005, so I don't know if this is just limited data, or our charters screwing up the identity of defenders on those passes down the middle, or Reed being used differently in coverage, or some combination of all three. Everyone pretty much agrees that Reed has played very well this year, and I think the safety and linebacker numbers from the charting project are shakier than the cornerback numbers, since corners are much more likely to be in obvious man coverage.
Chicago
The big difference here is not in the numbers but in the number of targeted passes. Charles Tillman has a better stop rate than Nathan Vasher, 61% to 56%, but he gives up slightly more yards per pass, 5.9 to 5.4. Both players are above average in both stats. But we have 88 charted passes with Tillman as the main defender,
