As the stock of Michigan DT Alan Branch seems to drop further and further in the upcoming NFL draft (having two broken legs generally doesn't help), he's being pushed below fast-rising Amobi Okoye on most draft boards. Indeed, NFLDraftScout.com's defensive tackle rankings list Okoye above Branch. Listed below them is Tennessee's Justin Harrell, who's seen as a notch below the other two first round-graded tackles.

Allow me to hazard a prediction, right now, that Harrell will end up being the best of the three.

Why? Because, simply put, highly-regarded SEC defensive tackles are as much of a lock as any other position and conference in the draft.

Since 1995, 11 defensive tackles from the SEC have been selected in the top two rounds of the draft. They include:

- James Manley

- Booger McFarland

- Reggie McGrew

- Cornelius Griffin

- Gerard Warren

- Richard Seymour

- Marcus Stroud

- John Henderson

- Albert Haynesworth

- DeWayne Robertson

- Johnathan Sullivan

Of the 11, only three were busts: Manley (who never played an NFL down), McGrew, and Sullivan, who ate his way out of the league. The other eight are all starters and considered top-tier NFL defensive tackles.

In addition, many SEC defensive tackles that were drafted in the later rounds made it to the NFL, including Shane Burton, Jason Ferguson, Michael Myers, Darwin Walker, Kendrick Clancy, Ian Scott, Kenny King, and Chad Lavalais

The Big 10, on the other hand, enjoys no such regard. Since Dan Wilkinson went first overall in 1994, they have struggled to put out quality defensive tackles. Second-rounder Nathan Davis played two games with the Falcons before they cut him. Wendell Bryant was drafted 12th overall in 2002 by the Cardinals and is now out of football.

Even the success stories aren't that successful. Jimmy Kennedy has matured into a NFL starter, albeit not a very good one; Anthony Adams still has a job but hasn't broken through, and was let go by the 49ers after three seasons, and Jonathan Babineaux is still behind Rod Coleman and Grady Jackson in Atlanta. The only Big 10 tackle to be a real success since Wilkinson is Chargers DT Luis Castillo, who made it to the Pro Bowl in his second season.

The highest-drafted defensive tackle in Conference USA (Okoye's home conference for the majority of his college career) history is former UAB DT Eddie Freeman, who was out of the league after 20 games.

Does this mean that making a move for Okoye or Branch is an obvious mistake? Not really. Okoye has that massive upside, and Branch is the only legit nose tackle that's Day 1-caliber. Picking Harrell, though, sure would look like a nice move for a team looking for defensive line depth. Don't be surprised if one of the "smarter" organizations in the league grab him at the end of the first round.

written by Bill Barnwell

As free agency dies down, a lot of signings are a bit more under the radar, but one of them really drew my attention this week. The Seattle Seahawks signed 35-year-old tight end Marcus Pollard, formerly of the Colts and Lions. The contract terms were undisclosed, but we know there is some guaranteed money involved.

I know the Seahawks wanted to wash their hands of the Salty Senorita, Jerramy Stevens, and they lost out on the bidding for Daniel Graham. But seriously? This is their answer at tight end?

Pollard told Seattle reporters that he doesn't have the usual wear and tear of a 35-year-old football player. The main reason? He didn't play college football; like Antonio Gates, he was a power forward on the basketball team in college. That's less wear and tear? Last time I checked, power forwards did a good amount of ####ing to get those rebounds. It's not like being a running back, but it isn't ballet either.

Do you realize how many tight ends in NFL history had good seasons at age 35? Two. That's it. Shannon Sharpe and Wesley Walls. Here's the entire list -- the ENTIRE LIST -- of 35-year-old tight ends who caught at least five passes in a season since 1978, with catches, yards, and touchdowns:

• Shannon Sharpe, 2003 Broncos (62-770-8)
  
• Wesley Walls, 2001 Panthers (43, 452, 5)
• Jimmie Giles, 1989 Eagles (16, 225, 2)
• Bob Tucker, 1980 Vikings (15, 173, 1)
• Pete Metzelaars, 1995 Panthers (20, 171, 3)
• Russ Francis, 1988 Patriots (11, 161, 0)
• Ed West, 1996 Eagles (8, 91, 0)
• Mickey Shuler, 1991 Eagles (6, 91, 0)
• Don Warren, 1991 Redskins (5, 51, 0)
• Rodney Holman, 1995 Lions (5, 35, 0)

 

That's it, folks. In fact, I only have eight other 35-year-old tight ends in my database, and they were basically long snappers (Mike Bartrum, Dave Moore) or glorified extra tackles (Brian Kozlowski).

I would accept the signing if we were talking about signing a 35-year-old Tony Gonzalez. But Pollard had only 12 catches for 100 yards last year and has never been known as a strong blocker. Maybe I'm wrong, and Pollard really has a ton left in the tank, but I wouldn't want to bet any guaranteed money on that.

By the way, I should point out that Pollard is the second 35-year-old tight end signed to a free agent contract this off-season. The other one is Kyle Brady, but frankly, the Patriots don't mind if 35-year-old tight ends rarely catch more than a handful of passes, because they only plan on throwing to him a handful of times. He's in there to block; Ben Watson and David Thomas are the tight ends who will run patterns. Still, Brady isn't the world's best bet to stay healthy and strong either.

Post by Aaron Schatz

 

Denver's recent trade of Tatum Bell and George Foster for Dre' Bly was just one more example in a long history of discarded Denver running backs. Since Olandis Gary turned in a 1,000-yard season subbing for Terrell Davis in 1999, the Broncos have not had a running back lead the team in rushes for more than two straight seasons.  Five different Denver backs -- Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Reuben Droughns, and Bell -- have put up 1,000-yard seasons in that time.

The Broncos clearly realized years before other teams that running backs are often just a product of the system.  The Colts just won the Super Bowl after letting Edgerrin James leave in free agency. Shaun Alexander struggled just one season after winning the MVP due to his own injuries and offensive line struggles.  The simple truth is that is that more than 30 running backs could run for over 1,000 yards behind a solid offensive line.  The Broncos’ realization of this fact has saved them cap space and allowed them to acquire the best pair of corners in football.  (Champ Bailey came in a previous trade for Clinton Portis.)

All of the above is true, but the next logical step after "running backs are fungible" is "all running backs are created equal." But this is not necessarily the case.  Six different running backs have led the Broncos in rushing the past eight seasons, but they have been far from equal. Here is a look at how each one did in our Football Outsiders advanced stats of DPAR (which measures total value) and DVOA (which measures value per play):

• 1999: Gary 18.7 DPAR, 0.5% DVOA
• 2000: Anderson 28.4 DPAR, 9.5% DVOA
• 2001: Davis 9.3 DPAR, -3.1% DVOA
• 2002: Portis 45.2 DPAR, 23.1% DVOA
• 2003: Portis 37.0 DPAR, 15.3% DVOA
• 2004: Droughns 16.4 DPAR, -0.8% DVOA
• 2005: Anderson 27.0 DPAR, 20.3% DVOA
• 2006: T.Bell 11.0 DPAR -2.1% DVOA

As an aside, Terrell Davis trumps even Portis. He had 59.1 and 65.7 DPAR in 1997 and 1998 respectively, leading the league each year. He also led the league in DVOA in 1998, and was second in 1997, narrowly behind Barry Sanders.

Not surprisingly, given the inconsistent running backs, the Broncos offense has had some wild swings during this period. Despite their sterling reputation, they have had three below average seasons running the football. Here's a look at total offensive DVOA as well as rushing offense for Denver as a team:

• 1999: -5.3% Offense, -0.7% Rushing
• 2000:  19.1% Offense, 14.3% Rushing
• 2001:  -6.2% Offense, -6.5% Rushing
• 2002:  17.0% Offense, 20.4% Rushing
• 2003:  8.6% Offense,  8.1% Rushing
• 2004:  11.3% Offense, 1.6% Rushing
• 2005:  23.4% Offense, 23.0% Rushing
• 2006:  -8.1% Offense, -6.7% Rushing

The Broncos have had two main quarterbacks during this period, Brian Griese and Jake Plummer. The offensive line has not been consistent outside of Tom Nalen, who has anchored the line during this whole period. Nalen is the only Denver offensive lineman who has made the Pro Bowl during this period.

Maybe uncertainty in the line corresponds with the decreases in effectiveness, but I’d argue that perhaps Mike Anderson and Clinton Portis are better players than the other backs. Tatum Bell was more successful in 2005 than last year, but he was still substantially less productive from a DVOA perspective than Anderson was.

I think the Broncos got the better of the trade with Detroit, but at a certain point, the Broncos may be getting too cute. They are consistently above average, but only once in the past four years (2005) did they have a truly outstanding offense. And yet, they continue with the same strategy.

The next 1,000-yard rusher will likely be the recently signed Travis Henry. Denver signed him to a sizable contract, perhaps realizing that not all backs are created equal. The problem is that Henry has proven himself solid, but below average. He has yet to post a positive DVOA in Buffalo or Tennessee despite multiple 1,000-yard seasons. In general, he has always put up high yardage totals simply because teams kept giving him the ball as the starting running back.

This year, Henry will probably rack up another 1,200 yards or more, and everyone will pat Denver on the back for adding another name to the list of seemingly successful backs they have created. It is far from certain, however, that Henry will be more like Portis than Droughns. Anybody can gain yardage in the Denver system, but not just anyone can be a star.

Post by Ned Macey 

Remember when we all used to wait for June 1, when all kinds of veterans would be cut for salary cap purposes? Teams waited for that day so they could postpone the cap charges by a year. Nowadays teams are doing a much better job of managing the cap, so nobody really needs to push things back by waiting until June 1 to cut someone. Instead, teams seem to be using March 1 as the deadline, so they can officially open up room in the budget before free agency starts on March 2. As an added bonus, cutting a veteran now is just a nicer thing to do, because it is easier to find another job in March than to find another job in June.

So a lot of players were cut over the last couple days. Some of them were surprising, some not. I thought I would take a look at Football Outsiders similarity scores to see what they suggest about these players in the future, should they sign with new teams. Unfortunately, similarity scores are limited to "skill players" on offense. In my opinion, the best player cut over the last couple of days is clearly linebacker Joey Porter, but we can't do one of these for him.

Similarity scores were first created for baseball by Bill James. (Honestly, what wasn't first created for baseball by Bill James?) The basic idea is that we compare players by subtracting a certain amount of points from 1000 based on the differences between statistics: receptions, yards, carries, passes, completion percentage, you name it. The football similarity scores also subtract points for every year difference in age and every year difference in NFL experience. (One player might come out as a redshirt senior, another as a non-redshirt junior, so these can be different.) The goal there is to get a list of similar players at a similar point in their careers. But even better, you can get a list of similar career paths by looking at two or three years in a row.

Obviously, we're using standard stats, so nothing is adjusted for opponent and we don't consider whether a receiver had to suffer with a bad quarterback in a particular year, or anything like that. This is not for hard research, but it's a fun little tool, and it does prove useful. (For example, the list of running backs similar to Shaun Alexander from 2003-2005 includes a lot of guys who got injured the next year.)

My database for similarity scores goes from 1978-2006. (We start in 1978 because of the liberalization of passing rules that year.) 1982 and 1987 get pro-rated for the strike. I'll list the top 10 most similar players for each guy, not counting other players from 2004-2006 -- those guys are listed, but not counted in the top 10. I'm only listing the third year for each guy.

Joe Horn

1) Yancey Thigpen, 1999 Oilers
2) Alfred Jenkins, 1983 Falcons
3) John Stallworth, 1986 Steelers
4) Stanley Morgan, 1988 Patriots
5) Frank Lewis, 1983 Bills
6) Steve Largent, 1989 Seahawks
7) Fred Barnett, 1996 Dolphins
8) Jimmy Smith, 2003 Jaguars
9) Rob Moore, 1999 Cardinals
X) Muhsin Muhammad, 2006 Bears
10) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets

This is a list of great veteran receivers, like Horn. You've got a couple Hall of Famers, and some franchise legends like Morgan and Smith. But four of these guys didn't play the next year. Five of them were part-time players the next year, which is also true of the next couple players on the list (J.T. Smith, Roy Green, Terance Mathis). Only Jimmy Smith rebounded to his prior level of play with 1,172 yards and six touchdowns. Joe Horn may be useful next year, but after two down years and lots of nagging injuries, I don't think you can trust him to be more than your third option.

Eric Moulds

1) Terance Mathis, 2001 Falcons
2) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets
3) Andre Reed, 1999 Bills
4) Anthony Carter, 1991 Vikings
X) Rod Smith, 2006 Broncos
5) Tim Brown, 2003 Raiders
X) Keyshawn Johnson, 2006 Panthers
6) Drew Hill, 1992 Falcons
7) Keenan McCardell, 2002 Bucs
8) Troy Brown, 2003 Patriots
9) Webster Slaughter, 1995 Chiefs
10) Ahmad Rashad, 1982 Vikings

This is another list of good veteran receivers, although not as good as the list for Horn, which makes sense, since Moulds in general was not as good as Horn. Like the list for Horn, one player on the list did continue to play at a high level, Keenan McCardell. Troy Brown became a two-way player the next year, but I don't think Eric Moulds will be doing that. In general, this is the same deal as above: most of these guys were part-time receivers the next season. The difference is that fewer of these guys retired, maybe because when you play at the level of Steve Largent, it's easier to quit knowing you have nothing else to prove.

Keenan McCardell

X) Joe Jurevicius, 2006 Browns
1) Ricky Proehl, 2002 Rams
2) Nat Moore, 1986 Dolphins
3) Roy Green, 1991 Eagles
4) John Taylor, 1994 49ers
5) Mike Sherrard, 1995 Giants
6) Mark Clayton, 1992 Dolphins
7) Ed McCaffrey, 2003 Broncos
8) Roger Carr, 1981 Colts
9) Qadry Ismail, 2002 Colts
10) Mel Gray, 1981 Cardinals

Yes, the most similar player to Keenan McCardell is another active player. Frankly, none of these players is really that similar to McCardell. For example, McCardell was 36 last season, older than all 11 players listed above. McCardell has one of the strangest career patterns in NFL history. The Browns goofed around with him for three years, playing him mostly on special teams. They finally had him start in 1995, and he put up a good but not great year of 709 yards and four touchdowns. Then he signed a free agent contract with Jacksonville, and managed at least 1,100 yards in four of the next six years -- even though he was the number two receiver on the team behind Jimmy Smith.

So at 32, he signs with Tampa Bay. Personally, he has a decline year, only 670 yards, but he also wins a Super Bowl title. Looks like a guy who finally got a ring just as his career was about to hit the same place Joe Horn has been in the last two years, right? Except McCardell then goes and has the best season of his entire career at age 33. When Keyshawn Johnson threw his little hissy fit, McCardell became the number one receiver on his team for the first time in his entire career -- in his TWELFTH season.

Wait, there's more! He takes this positive momentum and holds out for half a season. He wins out, gets traded to San Diego, plays okay in a few games, then the next year at age 35 he has another great year including a career-high 9 touchdowns. Who the hell else has a career high in touchdowns at the age of 35? One year later, in 2006, he finally collapsed, and by the end of the year he was barely on the field.

What's really strange is that if I listed every appearance by a player, rather than just the most similar season, 4 of the top 14 most similar three-year spans to Keenan McCardell 2004-2006 belong to Ricky Proehl in any three-year period between 2000 and 2005. So if McCardell wants to sign somewhere next year and play in the Ricky Proehl role, it's there for the taking. I hear the Colts need a Ricky Proehl to replace, you know, the actual Ricky Proehl. Otherwise, it's retirement time.

Jamal Lewis

1) Rodney Hampton, 1995 Giants
2) Jerome Bettis, 1999 Steelers
3) Mike Pruitt, 1983 Browns
4) Adrian Murrell, 1998 Cardinals
5) Sammy Winder, 1987 Broncos
6) Joe Morris, 1988 Giants
X) Thomas Jones, 2006 Bears
7) Mike Rozier, 1988 Oilers
8) Thurman Thomas, 1996 Bills
9) George Rogers, 1985 Redskins
10) Earl Campbell, 1983 Oilers

You look at that list, and you say, "Wow. Jamal Lewis has a future. Jerome Bettis? Jerome Bettis had some great years since 1999." Well, don't be quite so optimistic. Like Keenan McCardell, Jerome Bettis has had a particularly unique career. Very few players have been burnt out by a high number of carries, then worked their way back to their previous level of performance. Bettis did it TWICE, in 2001 and then again in 2004. Could Jamal Lewis do that? Well, he was great back when he was great, right? But so were the other guys on this list.

Other than Bettis, what you have here is a list of a lot of players who were great in their youth and then declined in their late 20s, but kept on plugging along with 200-carry years at 3.6-3.8 yards per carry. George Rogers is the only one of these players to average more than 4.1 yards per carry the next season. You've got the aborted Joe Morris Cleveland comeback, Earl Campbell getting traded to New Orleans... ah, memories. If you want to be relevant in 2007, Jamal, get on the phone to Jerome Bettis immediately and ask for training tips.

Drew Bledsoe

1) Ron Jaworski, 1986 Eagles
2) Jim Plunkett, 1984 Raiders
3) Bobby Hebert, 1994 Falcons
X) Kerry Collins, 2006 Titans
4) Phil Simms, 1991 Giants
5) Brad Johnson, 2004 Bucs
6) Danny White, 1986 Cowboys
7) Tommy Maddox, 2004 Steelers
X) Trent Green, 2006 Chiefs
8) Ken O'Brien, 1992 Jets
9) Archie Manning, 1981 Saints
10) Jeff Hostetler, 1997 Redskins

Dude, it's over.

Post by Aaron Schatz

If you read the FO blog regularly, you may remember that, halfway through the season, we introduced very early results from our game charting project. And surprisingly, those results had Fred Thomas as one of the better cornerbacks in the league in the early going. It was surprising because he's never been thought of as very good, and even more surprising as the season went on because Thomas was clearly one of the most flammable cornerbacks in the league in November and December.

Well, I think I have discovered why the early numbers were positive on Thomas. I just finished charting the second half of Carolina's Week 4 win over New Orleans, which was one of the unfinished games in the charting project. And Thomas sucked enough in this game to make up for the entire rest of the first month of the season.

At no time did Thomas get burned deep, except when he bit hard on a flea-flicker and completely left his man. Instead, this game showed the other problem with a bad cornerback. Because Thomas had to give so much room to Steve Smith (or sometimes Keyshawn Johnson) in order to prevent getting burned, he gave up tons of completions on hook routes and comeback routes.

Over the course of the game, we have 14 passes with Thomas in coverage: 11 to Steve Smith, 3 to Keyshawn Johnson. 13 of them were caught, and the 14th was caught but Steve Smith was sliding out of bounds so it was overturned on replay. Including the overturned catch as zero, the average play gained 8.2 yards. Based on the usual FO markers for success, 11 of the 14 passes were successful for the Panthers, but not one gained more than 17 yards.

9 of the 13 catches had no yards after catch, and 3 of the catches that had yards after catch were either screens or quick hitches (a.k.a. the "smoke" route) that are called because the cornerback is playing too far back off his man. It was just hook after hook. Run, turn, catch, tackle. Run, turn, catch, tackle. Over and over.

I haven't heard the Saints mentioned in the Nate Clements sweepstakes. Nor have I heard them mentioned as possible trade partners to get Dre' Bly out of Detroit. But they should seriously consider one or the other, because that cornerback spot is the biggest hole on the team going into 2007.

Post by Aaron Schatz

I was thinking about the strange case of Michael Turner. How many backup running backs average six yards per carry over three seasons? (5.99, to be precise.) San Diego will give their restricted free agent a sweet tender, so teams that want Turner have to give up either a first-round pick or a first and a third. Part of the question is what happens to Turner going forward, so I thought I would look for similar players using FO similarity scores.

Looking at a three-year span, one player stands out, far ahead of everyone else:

• 849: Stump Mitchell, STL (1981-1983)
• 807: Bill Johnson, CIN (1985-1987)
• 799: Hokie Gajan, NO (1982-1984)
• 781: Ron Rivers, DET (1996-1998)
• 780: Booker Russell, SD (1978-1980)
• 779: Najeh Davenport, GB (2002-2004)
• 778: Barry Redden, LA RAMS (1982-1984)

Everyone else is below 770.

Mitchell provides a fascinating look at what life might be like for Michael Turner if free agency did not exist. Like Turner, he was drafted by a team that already had one of the league's top running backs, Ottis Anderson. But unlike Turner, there was no threat that he would go anywhere, in restricted OR unrestricted free agency. He kept plugging along with 5.5 yards per carry each year, along with play on special teams. In his fourth season, 1984, he became a receiving threat, with more catches, yards, and touchdowns receiving than in his first three seasons combined.

Anderson started having some injury issues, so Mitchell's playing time finally went up in 1985. He gained 1,000 yards with just 183 carries, 5.5 yards per carry, with seven touchdowns rushing and another three receiving. In 1986, he had 174 carries and played well again, although he averaged a career-low (to that point) 4.6 yards per carry. For that to be a career-low, well, that shows you how good he was through 1986. By this point, he was sharing the job with Earl Ferrell rather than Anderson. 1987 was his career high, 203 carries, but actually his worst season, just 3.8 yards per carry. He rebounded with another good year as a part-timer in 1988, played a handful of games in 1989, and that was that. He's now the running backs coach in Seattle, where he's partly responsible for Shaun Alexander's MVP season.

Bill Johnson's third year is the strike year and he never played again, the strike means that's probably not worth looking at.

Hokie Gajan also had three great seasons but in the fourth year had injury problems. He also never played again, but that clearly was not an issue of talent. He's now the Saints' radio color guy.

Here's a look at two-year similarities:

• 839: Mitchell, 1982-1983
• 810: Charlie Garner, PHI, 1995-1996
• 803: Redden, 1983-1984
• 802: Russell, 1978-1979
• 798: Gajan, 1983-1984
  
• 795: Richard Huntley, PIT, 1998-1999
• 794: Maurice Morris, SEA, 2002-2003
• 786: LaMont Jordan, NYJ, 2003-2004

Once again, Mitchell is ahead of everyone else. If you are Michael Turner's agent, you like that Charlie Garner similarity second. We know Garner now as a pass-catching back, but he actually had only 32 catches in his first three seasons, and he averaged 5.4 and 5.2 yards per carry in 1995 and 1996. When he finally moved to San Francisco in 1999, he became a starter and one of the best backs in the league. LaMont Jordan also acquitted himself well once he got a starting job, especially considering the quality of the Oakland line. Huntley went to Carolina for a year, played well, but that was the end of his career.

All in all, I think this is another piece of evidence that Turner would be excellent as a starting back somewhere other than San Diego. Will that happen? Probably not this year, but I bet it happens in 2008. Maybe, if Shaun Alexander has more injury problems, Turner can go off to Seattle and be coached by Stump Mitchell.

Post by Aaron Schatz 

Warren Margolies:I read your article about the 370 Carry Theory with great interest, since I had been assuming that LJ was going to be my fantasy football keeper for years to come. Since I read the article, I've been debating doing the seemingly unthinkable and keeping Reggie Bush instead of LJ... is this too reactionary?

I normally trust Scott Engel from ESPN.com, who pointed out that LJ didn't become a full-time back until the second half of '05. What is your opinion on Bush vs. LJ for the next few years?

Aaron Schatz: The fact that LJ was not a full time back until the middle of 2005 doesn't matter. Jamal Lewis got cut down by overuse after a single season. What does matter is that fantasy and reality are not the same thing. There is a good chance of LJ having a catastrophic injury, or nagging injuries that cost him games. But there's also a good chance of him slowing down, but still keeping a starting job at 4 yards per carry, with 1,200 yards and a dozen touchdowns. That player would come out as average in the FO stats, a big step down for Larry, but that's still an every-week starting fantasy running back.

And I'm not sure what Bush's future holds, fantasywise. Despite his awesome second half, it's still hard to figure out how Sean Payton will use him going forward. Obviously, he has more value if you play in a points per reception league.

I think I would try to deal LJ for a more standard RB than Bush, but one who has less risk than LJ. Rudi Johnson, perhaps, or Frank Gore. If you think LJ's perceived value is higher than his real value, don't ditch him, flip him.

By the way, the hidden fact in the Patriots win over the Chargers: It prevented LaDainian Tomlinson from entering the danger zone of 390 carries in the playoffs + postseason.

Jason Scott: I'm a long time Titans fan and was shocked by Vince Young's rushing numbers according to your statistics.  (Young comes out with an average value based on DVOA.)  From watching the games it seems as though most of his runs are big third down plays, which I assumed would help him in DVOA.  Why are his rushing numbers ranked so low, barely above Matt Hasselbeck?

Aaron Schatz: It's all about those first few games where Young wasn't playing as well. Young had to learn how to play quarterback in the NFL -- that includes not just reading coverages, but also knowing when to scramble and when to chuck it away. What's remarkable is not that he had trouble running early, but that he learned so fast.

In the first nine games of the season, Young gained first downs (or touchdowns) on just 8 of 33 carries, averaging 5.2 yards per carry with four fumbles. That's -5.9 DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement). The only quarterback below that for the season is Philip Rivers. (Don't run with the ball, Phil.)

During Tennessee's six-game winning streak, Young has gained first downs (or touchdowns) on 22 of 39 runs, averaging 9.0 yards per carry with no fumbles. That's 11.8 DPAR. The only quarterback above that is Michael Vick.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Ron: OK, many of the Cowboys fans and I are a tad bitter about Terrance Newman not making the Pro Bowl - especially with DeAngelo Hall getting in. We feel that Newman does an excellent job of shutting down whatever side of the field he's on, or whatever receiver he's been assigned to. He doesn't get the picks or huge plays because QB's just don't throw at him and he doesn't give up big plays.

Are we correct? Is Newman better statistically?

Aaron Schatz: DeAngelo Hall is not the worst Pro Bowl selection this year. That would probably be Mack Strong -- Strong would have been a great pick in any of the last few years, but this year his ability to block just disintegrated. Hall is probably the second-worst selection. Hall is an example of a phenomenon that we may be writing more about in the coming months, and in next year's book: people wrongly assume that great athletes are effective football players. This is a huge problem with boom-and-bust running backs of the DeShaun Foster type, for example, but it also goes for Hall, who is super insanely fast but still learning effective cornerback technique. He's not a bad cornerback, he's just average. His reputation is helped by the fact that the other cornerbacks on his team are god awful. Compared to them, average and fast looks Pro Bowl-caliber.

Anyway, spurred on by your question I recompiled the data from this year's game charting project with all the games that are finished so far. We've got partial data through Week 13, although the later in the season you go, the more games that are unfinished. So take this stuff with a grain of salt. Also note that this stuff doesn't include pass interference penalties yet.

But... I was surprised to see that Newman's metrics don't come out much better than Hall's metrics. With 56 charted passes, Hall has given up 8.8 yards per pass with a Stop Rate of 55%. Newman, on 39 charted passes, has given up 8.2 yards per pass with a Stop Rate of 56% -- slightly better, but not much. The difference does come out in the last thing you noted, that quarterbacks avoid Newman. We've charted more passes thrown at Hall than at the inferior Jason Webster (52) but far fewer at Newman than at his partner, Anthony Henry (61). Remember not to compare those numbers between teams, since we have different amounts of games charted for each team.

Of course, if you open your Pro Football Prospectus 2006 you'll see that Newman was in the top five in both stats last year, and Hall was emphatically not.

Here's a look at the players who are best in the metrics, based on the data collected so far. We're listing players with a minimum of 30 passes. First, the top 10 in Stop Rate. (Stop Rate measures percentage of plays that do not achieve offensive success by Football Outsiders standards: 45% of yards on first down, 60% on second down, 100% on third down.)

• 32-A.Jones TEN 52 65%
• 28-L.Bodden CLE 31 65%
• 31-R.Marshall CAR 35 63%
• 33-C.Tillman CHI 75 63%
• 21-C.McAlister BAL 53 62%
• 20-C.Gamble CAR 38 61%
• 29-D.Florence SD 55 60%
• 26-L.Sheppard PHI 35 60%
• 22-F.Thomas NO 49 59%
• 36-D.Barrett NYJ 34 59%

The other number listed is number of charted passes. First of all, I should point out one player who ISN'T listed here, because I made the cut-off 30 passes. Antonio Cromartie has a Stop Rate of 69% with 28 charted passes. Wow, was I wrong when I thought the Chargers made a mistake because Cromartie would require years to learn to play corner in the NFL. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Then we've got Pac-Man, who probably should have made the AFC Pro Bowl team over Rashean Mathis, and our boy Leigh Bodden -- remember, this doesn't include the recent games where Bodden played hurt and not up to his previous level. Fred Thomas is still on this list for the same reason, because he played so well early in the year, and this doesn't include those recent games where he got torched like Johnny Storm. I'm a little surprised to see two Panthers on the list, since I thought the secondary was one of the big reasons they didn't live up to their Super Bowl potential this year. And I read some San Diego blog where some guy was talking about Quentin Jammer having a huge year this year. Actually, by our numbers he's the only one of the three San Diego cornerbacks who still qualifies as a weakness.

The top 10 in yards per play:

• 36-D.Barrett NYJ 34 4.5
• 28-L.Bodden CLE 31 4.6
• 22-A.Samuel NE 53 4.7
• 27-W.Harris SF 48 5.0
• 25-R.McQuarters NYG 35 5.0
• 31-N.Vasher CHI 44 5.4
• 31-C.Finnegan TEN 30 5.4
• 32-A.Jones TEN 52 5.5
• 26-L.Sheppard PHI 35 5.5
• 31-R.Marshall CAR 35 5.5

These numbers are a little kooky. David Barrett? R.W. McQuarters has looked horrible recently. Let's see where those guys stand at the end of the year.

I have no problem with Ronde Barber (we all know about his amazing run support) or Sheppard. Based on these numbers, Richard Marshall, the Carolina rookie, should be going to the Pro Bowl, but I don't trust that, not with this incomplete data. Combining this data with what we know from past seasons, I would have given the third NFC spot to Nathan Vasher. Vasher has a lower Stop Rate (57%) than Charles Tillman, but allows fewer yards per pass and opponents throw at Vasher roughly half as often compared to Tillman. Newman would have been a better choice than Hall, certainly, based on what we know from last year. Look, Jason Webster and Allen Rossum are so bad that if DeAngelo Hall was as good as people think, teams would treat those guys the way they treat Darrant Williams when Champ Bailey is on the other side of the field.

To finish up, here's a look at the worst cornerbacks so far by these metrics (remember, though, incomplete data). First, Stop Rate:

• 22-S.Rolle BAL 46 30%
• 22-Tr.Fisher STL 42 33%
• 24-T.Law KC 35 37%
• 27-J.Webster ATL 52 38%
• 23-M.Trufant SEA 55 40%
• 25-K.Wright WAS 42 40%
• 21-J.Fletcher DET 32 41%
• 27-Da.Williams DEN 59 41%
• 23-Q.Jammer SD 64 42%
• 24-I.Taylor PIT 67 43%

And then yards per pass:

• 22-S.Rolle BAL 46 14.1
• 22-Tr.Fisher STL 42 10.7
• 26-T.Hill STL 40 10.7
• 21-J.Fletcher DET 32 10.4
• 20-T.James CIN 42 10.0
• 21-R.Hill TEN 45 10.0
• 27-J.Webster ATL 52 9.9
• 24-T.Law KC 35 9.7
• 29-B.Williams JAC 47 9.6
• 24-I.Taylor PIT 67 9.3

You can be very sure that Bill Belichick, Marty Schottenheimer, and Tony Dungy know who to pick on if/when they face the Ravens in January. Also, Ty Law is over the hill -- his metrics were awful in New York last year too -- and the Rams' defensive backfield is horrific.

Israel Pikholz: The Pittsburgh Steelers broadcasters get all excited whenever Hines Ward scores or makes a first down, saying things like "No one smells the goal line like Hines" or "No one knows the sticks like Hines." How well does Hines really rank?  Is he particularly good at that particular skill or is this just local hype?

Aaron Schatz: This year, at least, the answer is local hype. I went and looked at every wide receiver and tight end this year, with a minimum of 40 passes for wide receivers and 20 for tight ends, to figure out who had the highest percentage of their catches/passes as first downs or touchdowns.

First of all, the league averages:

• 55% of tight end catches and 34% of all passes to tight ends turn into first downs or touchdowns.
• 67% of wide receiver catches and 38% of all passes to wide receivers turn into first downs or touchdowns.

Hines Ward this year has first downs or touchdowns on 67% of his catches and 40% of all passes. Basically average. Of course, these numbers are 2006 only, and Ward, when he was healthy, was having an off year -- mostly because his quarterback is having an off year.  In 2005, Ward had a first down or touchdown on 45% of catches and 75% of passes -- better, but still not the best in the league.

Ironically, while Ward is not at the top of the league this year, both Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington are. For example, here are the leaders in first downs per catch (including touchdowns):

• Devery Henderson, NO: 89%
• Reggie Wayne, IND: 87%
• Santonio Holmes, PIT: 84%
• Eddie Kennison, KC: 83%
• Donte' Stallworth, PHI: 82%
• Nate Washington, PIT: 81%
• Bryant Johnson, ARI: 81%

Bryant Johnson has really had a good year after being god awful his first three seasons.

Now of course, not all passes are caught by the receiver. Here are the leaders in first downs per intended pass:

• Patrick Crayton, DAL: 59%
• Henderson, NO: 58%
• Wayne, IND: 53%
• Eric Parker, SD: 52%
• D.J. Hackett, SEA: 50%
• Marvin Harrison, IND: 50%

Crayton, Henderson, and Hackett are playing very well but they are just over the 40 pass minimum, so Wayne, Harrison, and Eric "The Most Underappreciated Wide Receiver in Football" Parker are the real leaders here. Eric Parker is a catch machine. People don't realize how good he is because he never catches a touchdown, but he never catches a touchdown because San Diego has two of the best red zone weapons in the league, LT and Antonio Gates.

Most of the names at the bottom of the league make sense, except one. Here are the worst players in first downs per catch:

• Peerless Price, BUF: 37%
• Dennis Northcutt, CLE: 40%
• Wes Welker, MIA: 47%
• Drew Carter, CAR: 48%
• Reggie "Dance Machine" Williams, JAC: 50%

A lot of people think of Wes Welker as a possession guy because he comes in on third downs and he's, um, suntan challenged. He's definitely Joey Harrington's checkdown target on first and second downs, but on third downs he's a big-play speed demon.

The worst players in first downs per intended pass:

• Northcutt, CLE: 19%
• Price, BUF: 23%
• Chris Chambers, MIA: 25%
• Brandon Lloyd, WAS: 25%
• Michael Jenkins, ATL: 26%
• Carter, CAR: 26%

Chris Chambers is a talented athlete and an incredibly overrated wide receiver. Bill Barnwell wrote about this a couple weeks ago.

As long as I'm running the numbers, I might as well hit the tight ends.  Here are your leaders in first down per catch:

• Desmond Clark, CHI: 77%
• Tony Gonzalez, KC: 75%
• Dan Campbell, DET: 74%
• Dallas Clark, IND: 73%
• Alge Crumpler, ATL: 71%
• Courtney Anderson, OAK: 71%
• Tony Scheffler, DEN: 70%

It's nice that Tony Scheffler gets to the sticks when he catches the ball, since he doesn't catch the ball very often. He's caught just 38% of intended passes this year, which is just abysmal for a tight end.

The leaders in first downs per intended pass:

• Gonzalez, KC: 54%
• Campbell, DET: 50%
• Bryan Fletcher, IND: 45%
• Daniel Wilcox, BAL: 44%
• Clark, CHI: 44%
• Antonio Gates, SD: 42%
• Owen Daniels, HOU: 42%

And your bottom of the barrel tight ends.  First, first downs per catch:

• Anthony Becht, TB: 27%
• Steve Heiden, CLE: 30%
• Adam Bergen, ARI: 33%
• Anthony Fasano, DAL: 33%
• Alex Smith is not a quarterback, TB: 35%

There is a big gap between those five and the rest of the tight ends, who are all above 44%.  The worst tight ends in first downs per intended pass:

• Jerramy Stevens should shut up, SEA: 18%
• Becht, TB: 20%
• Fasano, DAL: 20%
• Bergen, ARI: 21%
• The lost rookie season of Vernon Davis, SF: 21%
• Smith, TB: 22%

Post by Aaron Schatz

In a few weeks, I'll be selecting the Too Deep Zone All Rookie Team. With the help of Michael David Smith and some of the other Football Outsiders, I select an entire team of rookies to honor, right down to the special teams gunners. I also pick a Rookie of the Year, which is never an easy task. This year, it's really difficult.

I drew up my first draft of the All Rookie Team about a month ago. Back then, the ROY question was easy: Marques Colston was the odds-on favorite for the award. But after a remarkable three-game stretch in which he caught 27 passes (19 of them for first downs or touchdowns), Colston missed three games with an injury. During his time with the pit crew, lots of other competitors gained ground.

Just after Colston got hurt, Joseph Addai had his monster 171-yard, four-touchdown Monday night game. If Addai followed that performance up with a few other great games, he would be the clear favorite ROY candidate. But he has rushed for just 56 and 22 yards in his last two games and hasn't done much as a receiver lately. Maurice Jones-Drew and Laurence Maroney have similar resumes to Addai: a few great games, value as a runner, receiver, and return man (Addai isn't a return man but has more offensive yards than the others), and some highlight-reel plays to capture the imagination. Reggie Bush is in the same category but hasn't been quite as good. If there are three or four similar players vying for an award, it may be a sign that none of them has distinguished himself enough to earn the award. But I haven't ruled any of them out.

Vince Young has leapt into the spotlight in the last few weeks. He has been impressive as a runner and (to a lesser extent) a passer during the Titans' four-game winning streak. But I'm wary of anoint a quarterback as the ROY because he "won" or got hot at the right time. Young's DPAR – 7.9 as a passer, 1.7 as a rusher – is good for a rookie but not overwhelming.

DPAR, of course, is Football Outsiders' top tool for evaluating players. Addai's DPAR is a whopping 33.2 as a runner, far outstripping Jones-Drew (10.7) or Maroney (2.5). Addai has them beat as a receiver, too, and kick return yardage can't really make up the difference. Colston's 25.9 DPAR is within striking distance of Addai. But I'm not obligated to choose the rookie DPAR champion as ROY. Other factors come into play, like the strength of the rookie's supporting cast. After watching Edgerrin James flop in Arizona, I'm convinced that it's really easy to run the ball in the Colts offense. That's not a knock on Addai, but if he continues to slip in the next few weeks, it'll be taken into account.

Why does the ROY have to be a "skill position" player? A month ago, before Addai's big game, I had Jets' center Nick Mangold penciled in as the runner-up to Colston. I have film evidence that Mangold has had a great season, plus lots of press clippings. The FO stats say that the Jets line has been playing relatively well, and their playoff run has been a pleasant surprise. If there were no high-profile candidates at quarterback, receiver, or running back, I would tap Mangold. At this point, I don't want to pick a lineman just to be cool. (Hey, look how much smarter than everyone else I am for picking this guy!) Do you really like Mangold better than Colston, Young, or Addai? I don't, but if that trio plays poorly over the next two weeks, Mangold may still get the nod.

The same goes for defensive players. Last year, I gave serious consideration to DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Lofa Tutupu, and Odell Thurman as ROY candidates. But this year's rookie defensive class isn't as impressive as last year's. DeMeco Ryans of the Texans has Defensive Rookie of the Year all but locked up. His raw totals: 105 solo tackles, 3.5 sacks, 12 tackles for a loss, an interception, six passes defensed – blow away the competition. Dig deeper, and you discover that Ryans isn't just making clean-up tackles. But again, does he have something that the offensive stars don't? If he does, I can't find it.

Late Monday night, a final contender entered the field: Devin Hester. Check out the Bears special teams DVOA: a whopping 14.8 on punt returns, and that doesn't count Hester's missed field goal return. That may not compare to Addai or Colston's DPAR, but the impact of Hester's returns has been huge. Hester doesn't contribute much to the Bears defense, and I haven't seen him on offense yet, though I have a feeling I will. He's on the list.

Clearly, the ROY race is going right down to the wire. The list goes live just before Week 17, so Addai, Colston, Hester, Young, and the dark horses have two more weeks to (further) impress me. I have a feeling that I will be giving a lot of "runner-up" and "honorable mention" notices this year.

post by Mike Tanier

Earlier this week, I took a look at Charlie Frye's similarity scores. Which quarterbacks had years similar to Frye's 2006 stats so far, and which quarterbacks were most similar over a two-year span?

Frye got me thinking about another quarterback in his second year: Alex Smith of San Francisco. Last year, Smith was abysmal, just awful. This year, he's not blowing anybody away with his numbers, but he's much better, and the 49ers are 5-5.

Like I did for Frye, I took Smith's numbers through 10 games, pro-rated them for a whole season, and then compared his first two years to those of other quarterbacks since 1978. Smith's story works better when you tell it the other way around.

Here are the top ten similar two-year spans:

1. Kyle Boller, 2003-2004
2. Shaun King, 1999-2000
3. Jim Everett 1986-1987*
4. Tony Eason 1983-1984
5. Boomer Esiason 1984-1985
6. John Elway 1983-1984
7. Josh McCown 2003-2004
8. Neil Lomax 1981-1982*
9. Trent Dilfer 1994-1995
10. Michael Vick 2001-2002

*pro-rated for strike

That list is a pretty mixed bag. San Francisco fans would love for Smith to turn out like Esiason or Lomax. They would dance in the streets if he turned out like Elway. They would cry in the streets if he turned out like Kyle Boller or Shaun King.

Chris Chandler 1991-1992 would actually be second on this list, but he was 27 years old and in his fifth season as a starter in 1992, so his career says nothing about what we might expect from Smith. His numbers are so similar that the he scores high despite the penalties in the system for differences in age and career experience.

Now, let's look at the most similar players in just one year, based on pro-rated stats for Alex Smith through 10 games in 2006:

1. Byron Leftwich 2004
2. Brett Favre 1992
3. Tom Brady 2001
4. Brian Griese 1999
5. Tim Couch 2001
6. Jim McMahon 1982*
7. Drew Brees 2002
8. Byron Leftwich 2003
9. Jeff George 1991
10. Tony Eason 1984
11. Carson Palmer 2004

The list is actually 11 players, because we've got Leftwich twice and I wanted to get in Palmer, who is the last player with a similarity score above 800. That is a far superior list to the one above. Tim Couch blew out his shoulder, and I doubt Alex Smith is a Jeff George-level jerk. If that means that the low end of his potential is Brian Griese and Tony Eason, well, that's a much better place to be than where we thought Smith was at the end of his first season.

(I guess we can debate about how good Byron Leftwich can be when he hits his peak, but it is my opinion -- and I think the opinion of everyone else on the FO staff -- that Leftwich is getting a bit of a raw deal in Jacksonville, and if the Jaguars get rid of him and hand the full-time job to David Garrard next year, they will regret it.) 

OK, so, why should we feel like the second list is more important than the first? The most important issue to remember with Smith is that he was just 21 years old as a rookie. That makes him one of just four quarterbacks in our database who were 21 as rookies: Smith, Drew Bledsoe, Tommy Maddox, and Michael Vick. Alex Smith is three years younger than Charlie Frye. In baseball, there's a big difference between the potential of a player who can be an average major-leaguer at age 21 and a player who can be an average major-leaguer at age 24. I would figure the same is true in football, and that means Smith has a lot more room for growth. It also means that Alex Smith's numbers at age 22 are probably a lot more predictive than his numbers at age 21. Add that to Smith's draft status -- which still counts for something, because first-round quarterbacks develop more often than third-rounders -- and I would certainly rather have Alex Smith guiding my franchise than Charlie Frye.

Join us next year at this time when we debate Kellen Winslow vs. Vernon Davis.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Jason Ford: I'm an avid Browns fan (woe is me) and I've been listening to the critics about Charlie Frye for the better part of the season. In Ned Macey's Every Given Sunday article this week, he bashes Frye and says the Browns should look into a trade for someone like Leftwich next season. The guy has less than a full season worth of starts... Can you run some similarity scores for Frye?

Aaron Schatz: This is a bit of a follow-up to Ned Macey's post last week about Frye and the history of quarterbacks who played below replacement level in their first two seasons. I took Frye's numbers through 10 games, pro-rated them for a whole season, and then compared his first two years to those of other quarterbacks since 1978.

First, here are the top ten similar seasons considering 2006 only:

1. Quincy Carter, 2003 Cowboys
2. Brett Favre, 1993 Packers
3. Drew Brees, 2002 Chargers
4. Tim Couch, 2001 Browns
5. Jim Zorn, 1978 Seahawks
6. Jake Plummer, 1998 Cardinals
7. Brett Favre, 1992 Packers
8. Rick Mirer, 1993 Seahawks
9. David Carr, 2004 Texans
10. Joey Harrington, 2004 Lions

Yes, Brett Favre appears twice on this list, but as you'll see in a second, he's not really that comparable to Frye. Frye is having a weird season, with a good completion percentage (62.5%) but lousy average yards per attempt (6.2). The Browns are throwing a ton of short passes. Out of these 10 quarterbacks, the only one with a higher completion percentage is Favre (1992), and the only one with fewer yards per attempt is Mirer. I also don't know if people realize how much Frye runs. He's on pace for 275 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.

Here's the top ten after we consider two seasons:

1. Quincy Carter, 2002-3 Cowboys
2. Tim Couch, 2000-1 Browns
3. Shaun King, 1999-2000 Bucs
4. Drew Brees, 2001-2 Chargers
5. Jim Everett, 1986-7 Rams
6. Jon Kitna, 1998-9 Seahawks
7. Randy Wright, 1985-6 Packers
8. Josh McCown, 2003-4 Cardinals
9. Aaron Brooks, 2000-1 Saints
10. David Carr, 2003-4 Texans

That list isn't quite so good, although Everett had a useful career and of course Drew Brees is still Drew Brees. Why isn't Frye comparable to Favre anymore? Because Favre's 1992 was nothing like Frye's 2005 -- actually, even though it shows up as similar to Frye's current season, Favre was much, much better in 1992:

• Favre 1992: 64.1 Comp. Pct., 6.9 ypa, 18 TD, 13 INT
• Favre 1993: 60.9 Comp. Pct., 6.3 ypa, 19 TD, 24 INT
• Frye 2006: 62.5 Comp. Pct., 6.2 ypa, 14 TD, 19 INT (pro-rated)

Frye is a quarterback who was below average in his first two seasons as a starter. Favre is a quarterback who was good in his first season as a starter, despite throwing a lot of shorter passes, and then slumped a bit in his second season.

I think the similarity scores say the same thing as Ned's analysis from last week -- Frye isn't hopeless, but he certainly doesn't look as promising as he did three months ago.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Earlier this week, in my column Any Given Sunday, I wrote that Cleveland's blind faith in Charlie Frye is troubling. I hinted that if he does not play well through the rest of the year, the Browns should go after another quarterback. Over in the discussion thread on Football Outsiders, multiple Cleveland fans posted that Frye exudes leadership, has little offensive help, and can still develop.

If Frye does not improve the rest of this season, but nonetheless goes on to have a successful career, it would make him absolutely unique among quarterbacks drafted over the past decade.

Football Outsiders has a stat, DPAR, that measures performance compared to a replacement player. (You may know this stat from the Monday Quick Reads column.) A replacement player would contribute 0 points. Frye had a DPAR his rookie year of -9.3, and to date he is again below replacement level with -11.9 DPAR in 2006.

I went back and looked at every quarterback drafted between 1995 and 2004 to find those who threw 100 passes in a season in either his rookie or second season. 36 quarterbacks met that standard. Of those 36, 15 did not have a positive DPAR during one of those two seasons.

That list of 15 quarterbacks is not a group you want to associate with:

• Cade McNown
• Brock Huard
• Danny Kanell
• Ryan Leaf (originally, this said Dorsey twice -- I'm not sure how I could forget the worst draft pick ever)
  
• Akili Smith
• Spergeon Wynn
• J.P. Losman
• Danny Wuerffel
• Chris Weinke
• Joey Harrington
• Tim Couch
• Ken Dorsey
• Quincy Carter
• Josh McCown
• Mike McMahon

Not one of these players has had a successful career. When Joey Harrington and Quincy Carter are the best of the bunch, this is not a career path you really want. The important thing here is struggles in both the rookie and sophomore year. Struggles in your rookie year alone have no such predictive ability. Donovan McNabb had a DPAR of -41.6 his rookie season. Eli Manning had a DPAR of -13.3.

The converse of this phenomenon is definitely not true. One positive DPAR season does not guarantee success. Shaun King, Bobby Hoying, and A.J. Feeley did not exactly develop into elite quarterbacks. For those reasons, fans in San Francisco should not get too excited about Alex Smith.

What does this all mean for Frye? Just because nobody in the last ten years has developed into a quality quarterback after such a poor start does not make it impossible. After all, almost all the quarterbacks with horrible rookie DPARs were total busts, but Donovan McNabb developed into a star. Perhaps Frye is a similar exception.

Still, enthusiasm for Frye should be tempered. The upside appears to be Carter or maybe David Carr, who only had a DPAR of 2.3 in his second season. Cleveland fans who like Frye should hope he puts it together down the stretch because quarterbacks who cannot play at a replacement level in their first two years are quarterbacks who will not be in the league for long.

Post by Ned Macey

The continuing saga of the Arizona quarterback position reminds me of something that I meant to put in Pro Football Prospectus 2006, but forgot as we were finishing up the book. The KUBIAK fantasy football projection system that we use is very tentative when it comes to predicting the stats of rookies, because there's so little information to go on. As a result, the rookie projections end up being significantly tied to the overall offensive projection for each player's new team.

We tried to project the top two quarterbacks on each team for 16 games, so people could see how they would do in case they had playing time. These were the projections for Jay Cutler and Matt Leinart:

Jay Cutler, DEN:

• 260-for-464 (55.9%) 
• 2,590 yards
• 20 TD / 16 INT

Matt Leinart, ARI:

• 302-for-543 (55.6%)
• 3,299 yards
• 15 TD / 22 INT

But here's what happens if you simply switch the teams for these two players.

Jay Cutler if he was on ARI:

• 299-for-543 (55.1%)
• 2,637 yards
• 16 TD / 20 INT
  

Matt Leinart if he was on DEN:

• 266-for-464 (57.3%)
• 3,130 yards
• 19 TD / 16 INT

A lesson both in how hard it is to project the performance of rookies, and how dependent that performance is on how good the team is around each player.

Post by Aaron Schatz