Donte' Stallworth was the 13th overall pick in the 2002 NFL Draft. He had a good rookie year with the Saints, catching 42 passes for 594 yards and 8 touchdowns. He took a step backwards in his second year, with just 485 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had 767 yards and 5 touchdowns his third year, which is an average performance for a second receiver and certainly not what you expect from a first-round pick in his third season, the mythological WR "breakout year."

It looked like Stallworth was stagnating, like perhaps he wasn't worth that top draft pick. In reality, looking back we know the entire Saints offense was stagnating in 2003-2004, except for Joe Horn. Stallworth stepped it up in 2005 when Horn got injured, with nearly 1,000 yards. Then the Saints dealt him to Philadelphia, and while he had injury issues, he also had 725 yards on just 32 catches, for a huge average of 19.1 yards per reception.

Now that Stallworth has signed with the Patriots, I decided to run similarity scores on him, to see what the Patriots might be getting. You'll find a basic explanation of similarity scores here. Once again, a reminder that similarity scores don't account for the quality of your teammates or your defensive opposition.

The players with the most similar three-year spans to Donte' Stallworth are an interesting mix of guys who never got past injury issues and guys who just exploded on the league the following year.

Oddly, the most similar player is Antonio Bryant 2004-2006, who is still out there as a free agent. Then you get this top 10 (listed year is third year of span):

1. Art Monk, 1983 Redskins
2. Wayne Chrebet, 1999 Jets
3. Darnay Scott, 1998 Bengals
4. Ricky Proehl, 1994 Cardinals
5. Marvin Harrison, 1998 Colts
6. Robert Clark, 1991 Lions
7. Stephone Paige, 1989 Chiefs
8. Justin McCareins, 2005 Jets
9. Jerry Butler, 1982 Bills
10. Ernie Jones, 1992 Cardinals

Four of these guys had 1,000 yards the following season. Marvin Harrison is one of the greatest receivers ever. Art Monk is the most argued-about non-Hall of Famer. Darnay Scott and Stephone Paige both had major injury issues after their one big 1,000-yard season.

Wayne Chrebet was a dependable second wideout for the rest of his career.

On the other hand, Robert Clark played three more games and disappeared, Ernie Jones played ten more games and disappeared, Ricky Proehl missed half the next season with an injury, and Jerry Butler missed a season and a half with injuries.

It seems odd to compare Harrison's third season with Stallworth's fifth season, but Stallworth was a rookie at 22, Harrison at 24. Stallworth, Monk, and Harrison are all 26 in the third year of this span. Stallworth was the 13th overall pick, Monk was 18th overall, and Harrison was 19th overall. It also seems strange to compare Stallworth to these guys after a year with 19.1 yards per reception, but that number is out of line with his career -- he had just 13.4 yards per reception the two years previous.

What's the other thing that Marvin Harrison in 1998 had in common with Stallworth in 2006? Yes, a new quarterback. Peyton Manning was a rookie in 1998 and was one of the best quarterbacks in the league by 1999. Stallworth went from Aaron Brooks in 2005 to Donovan McNabb in 2006, and now to Tom Brady -- one of the top three quarterbacks in the league -- in 2007.

On the other hand, Marvin Harrison has never been rumored to be in the NFL's substance abuse program, has he?

Stallworth's similarities actually look better if you look at shorter spans of time. The most similar players over two years include Plaxico Burress right before he went to the Giants, Lynn Swann, Monk, Anthony Carter two years after the USFL, Anthony Miller, Cris Carter, Stanley Morgan, and -- interesting irony -- Deion Branch, 2005-2006. Branch aside, those players averaged 1,060 yards and 7.3 touchdowns the next season.

Could Tom Brady possibly have here the go-to receiver for the rest of his career? Is Donte' Stallworth better than any of us thought? Actually, given the one-year make-good nature of the contract, the Patriots would probably be happy just getting the Stephone Paige of 1990.

Oh, and while we're at it, here's a look at similarities for the other new Patriots wideout, Wes Welker:

1. Jeff Groth, 1982 Saints
2. Gerald Carter, 1983 Bucs
3. J.T. Smith, 1980 Chiefs
4. Steve Kreider, 1981 Bengals
5. Johnnie Morton, 1996 Lions
6. Dante Hall, 2003 Chiefs
7. Mike Jones, 1985 Vikings
8. Desmond Howard, 1994 Redskins
9. Tracy Porter, 1984 Colts
10. Robert Brooks, 1994 Packers
    

Robert Brooks had 1,500 yards the next year, but otherwise Johnnie Morton is the only guy in Welker's top 20 who had more than one year with 800 receiving yards. I think the Pats overpaid for a guy who may not really be a starting wide receiver. Now that Stallworth is around, he probably won't be. I still like Jabar Gaffney to be big as Stallworth's partner in 2007.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Ben Maller's rumors and notes page is a really useful feature here at FOXSports.com because it aggregates stories from a bunch of newspaper websites you wouldn't check otherwise. But not every newspaper story is worth highlighting.

The top headline on the NFL page today is "Eagles McNabb to Vikings?" That story is featured in a link on the main FOXSports.com NFL front page as well. If the Eagles are really considering trading Donovan McNabb to Minnesota, that's a huge story. That's really great reporting by whichever reporter discovered that one.

Except it isn't.

The rumor comes from the "Overheard" column at the St. Paul Pioneer Press. The column is anonymous, and this is what it says:

Intriguing thought: If the Philadelphia Eagles were to beat the Saints on Saturday in New Orleans with quarterback Jeff Garcia, they would advance to the NFC championship game without starting QB Donovan McNabb, who's out with a knee injury.

Would Eagles coach Andy Reid, a pal of Vikings coach Brad Childress, who was McNabb's offensive coordinator in Philadelphia, then be willing to trade McNabb, 30, to the Vikings, who need a blockbuster playmaker to retain their season-ticket base?

Or would the Vikings try to sign the unrestricted free agent Garcia, 36, who runs the same West Coast offense as Childress, allowing Tarvaris Jackson more time to develop?

That's right. This isn't reporting. There is no indication whatsoever that the Eagles are actually considering a deal to send McNabb to the Vikings. A Pioneer Press sportswriter -- who isn't even high enough in the Pioneer Press hierarchy to get a byline -- just sort of had an "intriguing thought" in an otherwise tossed-off notes column. And suddenly it's a story, and not only does it get NFL front page play here at FOXSports.com, but I'm sure they are talking about it all over sports radio in Philadelphia and Minnesota as if Andy Reid actually told a reporter, "We're considering trading Donovan to the Vikings, and going with Jeff as the starter next year."

Are you kidding me?

Tell you what, let's start one too and see if we can get everyone talking about it as if it is an actual possibility.

Intriguing thought: With Urban Meyer winning a national championship at Florida, and proving himself a world-class offensive mind, would Wayne Huizenga consider offering Meyer the largest contract in NFL coaching history to take over the Dolphins?

There you go. Urban Meyer is officially a leading candidate for the Dolphins job. Go and spread the word.

Post by Aaron Schatz

It's time again for our weekly roundup of Sunday's action. Here's what the Football Outsiders staff was talking about this week:

"Jacksonville's first play from scrimmage against the Colts was a 76-yard Fred Taylor run. Their second play was an 18-yard run by Maurice Jones-Drew. Two rushing plays, 94 yards, one minute off the clock, touchdown. That kind of run defense is how you lose in the first round of the playoffs."

"The announcers are talking about what a fine job Brad Johnson is doing managing the game. There are approximately 100 quarterbacks on NFL rosters, and I think it's safe to say every one of them would do a fine job managing the game against the Lions' defense."

"The amazing thing about the Colts is how they can be simultaneously great and terrible. On the one hand, every play I've seen so far, the Jags have been physically manhandling them. On the other hand, they've still got a 10-7 lead midway through the second quarter on the road against a good team."

"After watching Jeff Garcia the last two weeks I'm convinced he was just half-assing it in Cleveland and Detroit. He just threw a bomb to Reggie Brown and hit him right in stride, then he followed that up a few plays later with a great 4-yard touchdown pass to Stallworth. Jeff Freakin' Garcia.

"Kansas City's last three possessions: interception, Trent Green fumble, interception. Both interceptions by Ed Reed, just hanging out in center field."

"Holy ####! Vince Wilfork just got called for a personal foul because Joey Harrington tripped over him while he was lying on the ground."

"The Chiefs are now walking off the field at halftime -- at Arrowhead -- to a resounding host of boos."

"I think there are more Giants fans in Carolina than Panthers fans."

"The Colts look like a bad MAC team playing Michigan."

"With hot Tennessee and schizophrenic Jacksonville on the schedule still, the Patriots are actually in danger of blowing the division to the Jets. I'm in shock at the very thought."

"Jason Taylor is without question the Defensive Player of the Year."

"Vince Young is just plain awesome. When he gets a little more seasoning, he's going to be scary good."

"We love Arizona safety Adrian Wilson, and he just recovered a Shaun Alexander fumble caused by a perfect Robert Griffith hit. The subsequent Edgerrin James rushing touchdown gets an assist from Seattle's continued enrollment in the Indianapolis School of Tackling."

"Shanahan deserves Goat of the Century for the way he handled his quarterbacks this year. Only in the world where Super Bowls are all that matter is this decision not the worst we've seen since the Rob Johnson/Doug Flutie debacle in Buffalo. Ok, you wouldn't have won a Super Bowl with Jake Plummer, but now you're going to miss the playoffs and ruin your team and your fan base's confidence in Jay Cutler."

"Cutler looks like he's about 15. The kid who mows my lawn looks older than he does."

"Fourth-and-20 for the ball game in Arizona, Matt Hasselbeck throws a 19-yard pass to Deion Branch. Branch catches it with about three yards to go, and if he pushes straight forward, I think he has it. But he tries to go sideways to get around the guy in front of him and it costs him. Can we all guess which Arizona defensive back made the game-ending tackle? Our man Adrian Wilson."

Read more at FootballOutsiders.com.

post by Mike Tanier