I normally trust Scott Engel from ESPN.com, who pointed out that LJ didn't become a full-time back until the second half of '05. What is your opinion on Bush vs. LJ for the next few years?

Aaron Schatz: The fact that LJ was not a full time back until the middle of 2005 doesn't matter. Jamal Lewis got cut down by overuse after a single season. What does matter is that fantasy and reality are not the same thing. There is a good chance of LJ having a catastrophic injury, or nagging injuries that cost him games. But there's also a good chance of him slowing down, but still keeping a starting job at 4 yards per carry, with 1,200 yards and a dozen touchdowns. That player would come out as average in the FO stats, a big step down for Larry, but that's still an every-week starting fantasy running back.

And I'm not sure what Bush's future holds, fantasywise. Despite his awesome second half, it's still hard to figure out how Sean Payton will use him going forward. Obviously, he has more value if you play in a points per reception league.

I think I would try to deal LJ for a more standard RB than Bush, but one who has less risk than LJ. Rudi Johnson, perhaps, or Frank Gore. If you think LJ's perceived value is higher than his real value, don't ditch him, flip him.

By the way, the hidden fact in the Patriots win over the Chargers: It prevented LaDainian Tomlinson from entering the danger zone of 390 carries in the playoffs + postseason.

Here's what we were talking about at Football Outsiders over the Wild Card weekend:

"This Colts first drive has been all runs and checkdowns. Apparently, the Colts' offensive plan is to keep their own defense off the field."

"Herm Edwards might be the worst in-game manager in all of sports."

"If it weren't for the two penalties on the punt return team, I'd say the Colts' defense and special teams have been entirely replaced by actual professional football players."

"My god, is Ty Law a lucky mofo."

"What's up with all these drops? Are they using the new NBA ball or something?"

"OK, this was funny and all, but does the real Chiefs-Colts game start after halftime?"

"It is 6:32 PM Eastern time. The Chiefs have their first first down."

"The long Indianapolis third-quarter drive that ended with the Joseph Addai touchdown run - 12 plays, 89 yards and seven minutes off the clock - was a masterpiece of consistent, measured playcalling. The Colts saw that gasping defense, and they went with the Long, Slow Goodbye. Just great football."

"I don't know if its the Colts defense suddenly changing into Mr Hyde. I don't know if its the absolute inability of Herm Edwards to change a plan that clearly wasn't working. But this was a stunning game."

"Why is Kelly Jennings solo on Owens? He weights about 175 pounds and isn't a good tackler."

"Why is Pete Hunter solo on Terry Glenn? Dude, it isn't like the Seahawks have choices right now."

"Let's start a pool... when will Tony Romo finally throw a pass above a guy's ankles?"

"Did Seattle just call a DRAW TO THE FULLBACK on third-and-7 in the red zone? Who thought that one up?"

"The two fourth-down conversions on Seattle's first touchdown drive were nice flashbacks to the past. Of course, there's nothing line a 93-yard punt return touchdown on the next play to kill that momentum!"

"That was one of the goofiest defensive plays I've ever seen. Catch, fumble, but the ball went out of bounds in the air before Lofa Tatupu batted it back in."

"This is going to be the longest replay challenge in the history of replay challenges."

"This is the craziest #### game I've ever seen!"

"Well, it's hard to say that the same week as that Boise State game. A couple weird plays are nothing compared to that thing."

"As a statistical analyst, it is not my job, nor is it my forte, to psychoanalyze Tony Romo and figure out what this mistake will mean for the rest of his career. However, this will not stop many, many writers and talking heads from doing just that over the next few days."

"Psychoanalyze Romo? Who would do such a thing? 'Hey, Carrie's man, what's your game, boy? Can anybody play?'"

"Chad Pennington surprises me with his arm strength when he throws downfield."

"I'm surprised that the Pats sideline is in the sun to the point that Bill Belichick is continuously shielding his eyes with his arm. (I guess he can't afford a visor to go with his hoodie.) This seems like exactly the sort of detail Belichick would have micromanaged."

"Watching Belichick and Mangini trying to outsmart each other is kinda like two Mathletes having a nerd off while everybody else in junior high is as the dance."

"Shawne Merriman is on national TV at halftime, and he can't put on a shirt? He's either wearing a wifebeater, suspenders, or a pair of overalls without a shirt, like the big guy from the original Final Fight."

"Kickoff distance is one of those things that nobody notices without looking at the numbers first, but the difference between Steve Gostkowski and Mike Nugent has been mind-bogglingly obvious this week."

"I don't agree at all with what Phil Simms just said: 'You look at this 37-16 score and it's misleading.' The Pats pretty much dominated this game. The Jets had a handful of good drives, but this was basically the Patriots' game all day. At halftime when it was 17-10, they commented that all the stats (16-7 first downs, for example) showed that the Patriots were dominating, and that was right. The score just started to reflect that by the end."

"Cris Collinsworth last night: 'Kevin Gilbride has changed the outlook on offense; they run Tiki Barber and they throw the ball long.' Yeah sure, that's not at all what the Giants offensive game plan looked like for all of 2005 and 2006 prior to last week.

"Jared Lorenzen: The unholy offspring of Michael Vick and Refrigerator Perry."

"Somebody needs to get the Giants offensive line some anti-anxiety medicine or something."

"Koy Detmer earns his paycheck with two tough holds on field goals on a rainy day. Koy for MVP."

"The only person who was playing with any sort of urgency in that game was Tiki Barber. The performance was entirely indistinguishable from any other Giants game this season, and I'd like to think that they'd focus more and play better. I'm normally not inclined to blame a performance on a coach, but this team isn't going to get any better with Coughlin at the helm. They need a change."

"Seeing Jeremy Shockey stretching for first downs with his helmet knocked off, taking off Coughlin's headphones to talk to him... he seemed to be playing with urgency. And you've got to give Plaxico Burress credit for some good receptions there. On the other hand, when your tight end is coming up to your head coach and just taking off his headphones to talk to him, and your offensive line then false starts 37 times, yeah, I don't think the discipline thing is working."

"I think the Giants were playing hard out there, but you don't just flip a switch and acquire intensity. If you have a month of the season where everyone is playing like ####, yapping in the media, and tuning out the coach, then you have dozens of practices that are just shot to hell. Guys can fly around on Sunday and hit hard and yell and scream, but football requires precision and controlled aggression. The Giants have been an imprecise team all year."

Read more in Audibles at the Line on FootballOutsiders.com.
 

So, we've got most of Weeks 1-14 now compiled in our game charting project, and four very important games to analyze, so I thought perhaps I would go through and see what the charting data says about the wild card weekend games. Standard caveats, of course: this data is unofficial, compiled by volunteers, we're missing some games, and it is hard to always see who was in coverage when using TV tape.

Kansas City at Indianapolis

Last year our stats said that Jason David made a successful play on a higher percentage of passes than Nick Harper, but when he gave up a completion, it went for more yards. This year, their stats are virtually identical in every way. The only difference is that the average pass David faces is 13 yards in the air, the average pass for Harper just 10 yards in the air.

("Made a successful play" does not mean just an incomplete or interception; it also applies to a complete pass that does not gain 45% of yards on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third down.)

Indy had 32 passes marked "Hole in Zone," more than any other team. That's 10.3% of the total charted passes marked with a defender of some sort. The second-highest team was Jacksonville (7.2%).

KC had only 6 passes marked Hole in Zone, which makes sense, since Gunther Cunningham loves man coverage. Unfortunately, he's got just one guy who can pull it off. For two years now, the game charting has said that Ty Law is now a subpar cornerback. We've got 51 passes targeted at Ty Law, averaging 9.5 yards per pass. We've got just 32 targeted at Patrick Surtain, averaging 6.2 yards per pass -- even though the average pass at Surtain actually traveled slightly longer in the air (10.5 yards to 10.1 yards). We've got almost as many passes targeted at Lenny Walls, the nickel back, as we do targeted at Surtain.

Dallas at Seattle

We covered this one a couple weeks ago. The numbers on the Dallas cornerbacks are fairly similar and all worse than last year, but there are many more passes thrown at Anthony Henry than thrown at Terrance Newman. And our charting doesn't include most of the recent period where the Dallas pass defense imploded.

Seattle numbers are pretty worthless given all the injuries. Jordan Babineaux's numbers sucked as a cornerback last year. There's going to be a LOT of passing in this game.

New York Jets at New England

Asante Samuel is your lord and master. He allowed just 4.7 yards per pass, which is the lowest of any cornerback in the league with at least 30 charted passes except for R.W. McQuarters. Except the average pass against McQuarters was FIVE YARDS SHORTER than the average pass against Samuel, and we charted nearly twice as many passes against Samuel because McQuarters is a nickel back. Samuel also had a high 61% stop rate (stopping plays short of success). Ellis Hobbs and Chad Scott had similar, average stats, which is strange because it seemed like Scott was burned constantly. Hobbs was one of the best guys in the league in these stats last year but struggled with injuries in 2006.

Usually the nickel back faces shorter passes, because he's facing guys trying to convert third downs, but David Barrett of New York faced an average pass that went 15 yards in the air, compared to just 10 for starters Andre Dyson and Justin Miller. Miller's stats were pathetic as a rookie but much better this year. Dyson and Miller allowed the same average yards per pass (7.7) but Dyson was successful against just 40% of passes, Miller against 55% of passes. Barrett had excellent numbers, but I'm guessing that's a sample size fluke caused by a few overthrown bombs.

New York Giants at Philadelphia

If the charting numbers are to be believed, the safeties in New York are horrible. Kevin Dockery's 12 yards per pass was #1 among all players with at least 30 charted passes. Will Demps' 9.8 is eighth. Both had stop rate of 36%, the only defensive back worse than that was Travis Fisher of St. Louis.

As for the cornerbacks, as mentioned above, R.W. McQuarters comes out with great stats, which is really weird and completely goes against the subjective view of my eyes any time I watched the Giants. Corey Webster was thrown at more often than Sam Madison, giving up slightly more yards per pass with a slightly lower stop rate.

Last year in Philly, Sheldon Brown and Roderick Hood both ranked among the best in the league while an injured Lito Sheppard was near the bottom. This year, Hood was the injured corner with the subpar stats, and Sheppard's stats were near the top of the league. Injuries are bad, huh? Anyway, Sheppard had a stop rate of 62%, one of the best in the league, and allowed just 5.4 yards per pass, and that doesn't even take into account all his timely interceptions. Brown had a stop rate of 57% and allowed 8.6 yards per charted pass (in his defense, he faced longer passes on average). Hood's stats don't mean much since we're missing the recent weeks where he was actually healthy.

Post by Aaron Schatz

There are people out there who suggested that Tiki Barber wasn't trying his hardest in the past few weeks because he plans to retire. I hope they felt like idiots Saturday night.

Vince Young just threw a crazy no-look hook shot to the end zone. Randy Cross can't stop fawning over it. "This is why this city is so excited about this guy." If Eli Manning had thrown that pass, people would have been all over him for making a stupid, risky decision. It just goes to show that 'heroic' moves are driven by incoming expectations.

Are the Cowboys under the impression that this game is a 4 p.m. kickoff or something? They're playing like absolute ####.

At -34.4%, the 2006 Oakland Raiders would seem to have an outside shot at the Negative Offensive DVOA record, set by the 2005 San Francisco 49ers (-39.8%). Now THAT's something you want on your resume: "Coordinated record-breaking offense, according to Football Outsiders."

In the third quarter, David Garrard threw a little line-of-scrimmage screen to Ty Law. I’m sure there was a back in a Jaguars uniform behind him, but Garrard threw the ball right to Law. Looked right at him, and threw it anyway. Not surprisingly, Quinn Gray is now in at quarterback. We'll see if Gray can just win ballgames.

I predict the Bengals draft a special teams-specific player on Day 1 of the NFL Draft.

And with 2:33 left in the fourth quarter, Larry Johnson carried the ball for the 411th time this season, breaking Jamal Anderson's 1998 record for carries in a season. In 1999, Anderson ran 19 times for 59 yards and went down in the second game of the season with a knee injury. He was out of the league two years later. As we've said before at Football Ousiders, this would almost be excusable on Herm Edwards' part if a) he wasn't so stubborn and defiant about Johnson's carries; and b) he didn't run Curtin Martin out of the league two years ago.

Everytime I switched over to the Cowboys, they were playing an interesting new zone coverage called "Cover-Nobody."

The Seahawks avoided the indignity of an 8-8 record, though they’re still one of the least impressive teams ever to win a division.

I'm glad the Lions won't have the top pick. They'd just blow it.

Let me also just say J-E-T-S! One! And! Done! This is not a playoff team, but I'll ride the happiness anyway. Plus it gives the young 'uns some playoff experience.

I believe that Tony Romo has the potential to be a very good starting quarterback. Heck, I don't mind the Pro Bowl selection, because there weren't a lot of options (remember that Jeff Garcia had some of his best games after voting was closed). But when things go too well too early for a quarterback, he can pick up some awful habits. For example, not gripping the ball tightly, and not protecting it in traffic, and waiting forever for a magic play to develop when you could just dump it to Marion Barber and gain five yards.

And Denver officially craps the bed. Which means: 1) Another week of Mangini-Belichick stories. Kill me now. 2) Indianapolis is freaking out at the prospect of playing Larry Johnson. 3) Another 30 and maybe 60 carries for Larry Johnson, which means he is super duper Oompa Loompa Dupity Screwed.

All. A. J. Feeley. Does. Is. Win.

Happy New Year from the gang. See you in 2007!

post by Mike Tanier

Every week, Football Outsiders staffers e-mail each other with updates on Sunday's action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"Kansas City's first drive of the game: 10 rushes for 73 yards, one pass for three yards, finished off with a rushing touchdown. Welcome back, Trent Green!"

"Favre out. McNabb out. Bad day for a lot of fantasy teams."

"I know that the Patriots have injuries in the secondary, but really, enough with the Troy Brown thing. That was supposed to be for emergencies only. He has two penalties so far as a defensive back this year, and at one point he was in man coverage on Donald Driver."

"There is a rumor circulating in Philly that the boys were out a little late last night celebrating Donovan McNabb's birthday. They played like they were hung over today."

"Peyton Manning is getting no protection at all."

"Does Mike Nolan fidget this much when he's not wearing a suit?"

"The Seahawks defense just seems to have skipped tackling school this week."

"Now that the Lions are getting their #### kicked by Arizona, can anyone think of any plausible reason that Matt Millen should still have a job?"

"There's no way the Cowboys do not cut Vanderjagt this week."

"Would you like to know who's playing receiver for the Lions now? Josh McCown. Seriously. Josh McCown. Matt Millen spent a Top 10 pick on Mike Williams, and now he can't beat out a quarterback for playing time at wide receiver. And not a particularly fast quarterback, either."

"Now we can go back to talking about the Colts with sanity. We can talk about what they really are: a great offense, a bad defense, atrocious special teams, one of the top teams in the NFL but not a Super Bowl favorite."

"Conversation overheard at NBC: 'Can we un-flex Philly at Indianapolis and go back to Chicago at New England instead?'"

"It turns out that if you have LaDainian Tomlinson on your team, there may be no such thing as a hole too deep. This also goes for my fantasy team, which had a terrible week until about ten minutes ago."

"Igor Olshansky is a buffoon, but even more so, Tom Nalen is a ####."

For more, check out Audibles at the Line at Football Outsiders.

post by Mike Tanier

Now that Trent Green has been declared the starter again in Kansas City, this question seems timely. The numbers are slightly off since it was sent a few days ago.

David Bottom: Who do you think will get Damon Huard at the end of the season? He is an UFA. Tampa Bay would be a great fit since he is clearly an upgrade over what they have now. Your thoughts? and I don't see him staying in KC. In 12 starts he is now 9-3, which equates to a 12-win season, and even at 33 he hasn't taken a beating so I think he probably has 3 good years left. My original thought was that Tampa Bay would be a great fit since he is clearly an upgrade over what they have now. Your thoughts?

Mike Tanier: Damon Huard has earned the right to either be one of the league's highest paid backups or a custodial starter who keeps the seat warm for Brady Quinn or somebody. If the Bucs bring him in to start some games while Bruce Gradkowski gets more prepared, then that is a great move. If a contender like the Patriots grabs him for insurance, great move.

If some team appoints him the starter and expects him to lead them to the playoffs, they will discover that they've acquired a player somewhere between Jon Kitna and Brad Johnson.

Michael David Smith disagrees and if you scroll down to the Kansas City comments in this week's Audibles at the Line, you'll find a bit of a debate about Huard. 

Post by Mike Tanier 

Every Sunday, the writers at Football Outsiders e-mail updates and analysis to one another on all the NFL action as it happens. Here's what we were talking about this week:

"McNair got the snot knocked out of him, almost literally. You can see that he was holding his hand up to his face as he woozily walked off the field. Sometimes, guys will get hit hard enough to make things in the sinuses move around. Lesson to players? Blow your nose good before the game."

"Somewhere along the way, the Eagles removed all 10-25 yard passes from their playbook. They have the screen, the short cross, and the 'McNabb hold the ball a long time and throw a bomb'.play."

"Give the Saints credit. Their offensive line is better than anyone expected, and their linebacking corps is not as bad as it looked like it would be at the start of camp."

"The Lions actually looked like a competent NFL team today."

"Is there any sort of fake LaVar Arrington won't fall for? Do his teammates laugh each week when Arrington comes to practice and shows off the watches he bought on Canal Street, or do they just accept it at this point? How much money has he sent to Nigeria?"

"The Texans are no better than they were last year. Andre Johnson is a stud, and the rest of the team is a mess."

"Sports Illustrated had a player pool of who was the top wide receiver in football, and Torry Holt was in the equivalent of "others receiving votes." What a joke. He's a great receiver. Great hands, great routes. He abused the Seahawks throughout the game. He's on his way to his 7th straight 1300 yard season."

"Seattle takes the lead for the first time in the game in the fourth quarter after Kevin Curtis fumbles a kickoff return and Matt Hasselbeck throws to Deion Branch in the end zone two plays later. I need a beer."

"Jeff Fisher was celebrating this win like it was the Music City Miracle. Small victories..."

"In six of the eight early games, the underdog won outright."

"Remember: Just as Kansas City is not as good as they looked against San Francisco, they are also not as bad as they looked today."

"I usually don't root for the Steelers. But I'm enjoying this beat-down."

"The refs called unsportsmanlike conduct on Larry Johnson for flipping Troy Polamalu's hair after the hair-pull tackle. Ridiculous. Like I told my wife: either put it in a bun or cut it if you don't want people doing that to you."

"The Jets managed to keep Ronnie Brown under 6 yards a carry today. Pretty good day for them."

"All I feel for Raiders fans now is pity. Were the NFL ever to take a team into receivership, this might be the one."

For more, read Audibles at the Line at Football Outsiders.

Post by Mike Tanier